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QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FXUS04 KWBC 160950
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
549 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 16/1200 UTC THRU MAR 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
UPDATED...ATTEMPTED TO BETTER SEPARATE THE AREAS OF SHWRS ASOCTD
WITH THE TWO SEPARATE MID LVL IMPULSES NOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND CMC CONTINEU TO INDC HEAVIER
PCPN TOTALS AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OVR THE SOUTHEAST THAN NCEP
GUIDANCE.
...NWRN U.S....
SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN FAST CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FIRE PCPN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND THAT HAS PRESSED SEWD ACROSS
THE NWRN U.S. AS WELL SUPPORT CONTG POST FRONTAL SHWRS ALONG THE
PAC NW COAST WHERE A FVBL LLVL ONSHORE MSTR FETCH WILL PERSIST.
THE 15/1200 UTC ECMWF WAS SUPPORTIVE OF TNGTS GFS QPF PLACEMENT
WHICH ALSO HAD SUPPORT FM THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL. SEE LITTLE
REASON AT THE CURRENT TIME TO DISAGREE WITH THOSE MODELS AND
BASICALLY BLENDED ANY MINOR DIFFERENCES THAT WERE NOTED.
...SERN U.S...
WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARDS A ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WITH THE NCEP MODELS AGAIN SEEMING TO UNDERPLAY THE SITUATION
THERE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING
ACROSS THE REGION AS SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT
OVRRUNS THE FEATURE. MSTR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A
SWATH OF MDT TO HVY PCPN TOTALS GIVEN THAT INITIALLY FVBL JET
DYNAMICS WILL AID THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. MAIN PROBLEM RECENTLY
HAS BEEN THAT THE NCEP MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO TURN THE LLVL WINDS
TOO WLY WITH PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS INSTEAD OF HAVING THEM
BACK IN RESPONSE TO ADNL SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG ACROSS THE REGION.
LIKE YDA...WILL BE SLOWER TO END THE PCPN FM WEST TO EAST OVR THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
EXTENT OF SGFNT PCPN TOTALS.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...PAC NW AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A PERSISTENT AND DEEP LYR PAC ONSHORE FETCH INTO THE PAC NW AND
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL TAPER
DOWN ON TUES AND WED. A LARGE AND EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
OF AK/NERN PAC WILL KEEP THE CONSTANT WRLY ONSHORE FLOW INTACT ON
TUES WITH UPPER HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISING OVER THE NWRN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY ON WED. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST MODERATELY HVY PCPN
AMTS ACRS COASTAL WA AND INTO THE CASCADES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE AND AGREEMENT AND HPC LEANED CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF
THESE 00Z MODELS.
...GRT LAKES INTO OH VLY AND NORTHEAST...
A STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST/OH VLY AND PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS. INITIALLY OR TUES... THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING/LIFT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM MI BACK WEST INTO THE UPR TO MID
MS VLY... AS A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SERN SECTION
OF THE COUNTRY KEEPS LL MOISTURE VALUES VERY MINIMAL. HOWEVER BY
WED... THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND LOWERING OF HEIGHTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GRT LAKES WILL ADVANCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE OH VLY AND THE MASSIVE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MUCH BETTER FORCING/LIFT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT AND MORE GULF MOISTURE
ARRIVING INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT ON WED WILL BE A MUCH
BROADER AREA OF MDT TO HVY RAINFALL WITH A SOLID STRIPE OF A .50
INCH TO AN INCH FROM THE ERN GRT LAKES/INTERIOR NORTHEAST SWWRD
INTO THE OH VLY. HPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND NAM
SINCE THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD ON WED WITH THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS
OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
...FL...
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED THIS EVENING
THAT TUES AND WED COULD BE A WET 48 HRS ACROSS SOUTH FL. THE UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUES WILL LINGER OVER THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND COMBINE WITH A WEAK STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG
WITH HIGH PWS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL
PENINSULA. HOWEVER... THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FACETS AND STRONG MEAN ERLY LL COMPONENT FORMING... DUE
TO THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WILL RESULT ON
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTH FL. THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
INDICATE PERSISTENT MDT OT HVY RAINFALL ACROSS SERN FL AND EXPECT
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH EACH DAY.
KORTY/MUSHER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 17/12Z
0.01 537211 536205 534196 532189 530182 528174 525168 521161
516156 511152 507146 503143 497141 490132 481126 477124
472120 473114 474111 475107 473101 473089 473080 477073
479067 480061 481050 482042 487015 489007 492002 493992
492987 491983 487980 487975 490966 492958 493950 493943
494938 491934 488934 485938 482944 479955 475969 473983
471993 468000 464015 461027 459036 459043 456051 456056
453061 450065 447068 444068 441070 440074 441079 444083
445085 442087 437089 430090 428092 427098 421108 419111
413112 407112 404116 405122 411122 415122 418123 420128
419134 430158 427160 423158 418150 415153 414158 417163
417165 416168 415173 414177 414181 413191 409195 407199
407202 396199 390199 385201 383205 385209 387213 392217
392219 389221 383220 380220 378218 373216 370219 369223
371226 375231 372241 372250 374254 376254 382253 385251
390249 397253 409257 415259 422259 433260 439259 447259
451259 458262 465264 471267 474269 480275 496291 503295
508293 512289 515284 517277 519269 520261 520252 519245
517239 510226 505215 503210 501205 502201 504198 507199
510204 515209 521213 526215 532216 537211
0.01 478190 477182 474177 468177 465183 461186 458190 456193
453197 451202 449208 453210 456207 459204 465205 469205
472199 475194 478190
0.01 417757 416751 413747 408739 406731 407726 406720 403714
400711 396712 388712 383714 374719 366723 358725 350728
342726 335728 332732 330736 328749 318761 311777 306789
303796 299802 290814 286821 284829 280843 278850 278856
280863 284862 286864 284881 281896 280904 279908 280913
280920 279925 279929 279934 279940 283943 287941 298931
306922 308919 311917 315910 320903 325896 328890 333884
343875 348870 352867 355864 372859 374858 376860 376864
377874 379882 381886 384891 388897 394899 400900 403896
404886 403875 405865 406848 405843 403841 397841 395839
393834 392820 393813 397805 408791 413785 415779 417774
417762 417757
0.25 529199 526192 521183 515177 510173 505172 502168 496165
491164 487165 486168 487171 491174 495174 504175 507178
509183 514188 520195 525201 529199
0.25 509274 513260 511247 509238 504229 497210 493207 489206
482205 474207 468210 459211 453214 443215 438215 434213
432211 430207 426204 421203 420207 425214 422219 419221
418222 416216 413214 411215 407214 404214 402216 404220
404224 402227 399228 394229 391232 392236 395240 400244
404246 409247 417247 432247 449248 456248 465249 469250
473253 481259 486266 491273 495279 499282 503283 506281
508276 509274
0.25 484232 485227 483227 480226 479226 479230 480230 482232
484232
0.25 472154 469146 465141 464139 463134 460128 455131 451134
451139 448143 440142 436147 435155 437161 443170 446177
443182 441185 440188 441190 444189 446186 452184 455178
457168 460162 464159 470157 472154
0.25 464119 464113 466108 465102 461097 456098 450096 444097
439098 436100 433108 435112 438113 443119 448121 452121
458123 460125 462124 462122 461119 463119 464119
0.25 383736 377736 372738 364740 359739 349737 344738 340742
331765 326773 321785 318795 317801 314806 307816 304825
298848 295857 292868 291874 290881 291887 290895 289906
289919 289924 291925 295923 300919 304915 310906 315897
326877 338859 343850 346843 349837 352832 357828 367827
371828 376826 380820 382813 385808 387802 386798 380797
377799 372803 368804 367800 369795 371790 375784 376777
376772 375762 375757 377752 383736
0.50 501271 500268 498265 497264 495263 495264 496268 497271
499274 501271
0.50 505244 496218 493214 486210 480209 473211 470213 465214
455215 449217 443217 439218 436221 432224 437228 443230
443233 441235 441240 444242 447243 457243 463242 468243
477249 483252 489252 489247 484242 481237 477231 472229
470227 471223 475221 480221 491225 497236 501241 504245
505244
0.50 463148 459145 456145 454147 450148 444148 441147 439149
437153 438157 442161 445166 448170 453167 455164 458156
461152 463148
0.50 447113 448109 447105 444102 441102 440104 439108 441110
444112 445113 446113 447113
0.50 422237 420233 417231 414227 415219 413217 410217 408218
408221 407225 408229 402231 399234 398236 401240 405240
409241 415242 421241 422237
0.50 366762 365756 362750 355745 351744 347744 342751 336769
334775 329783 326791 323799 315814 309831 304846 298862
296870 295880 295888 295899 294907 294913 297916 301911
307903 310897 314888 320872 324865 328859 333851 337842
346829 350822 353811 354803 356794 359786 363776 365769
366762
1.00 478239 476237 474237 475239 478239 478239
1.00 353765 353761 352758 350757 349756 347756 346757 345759
344762 344764 344766 343770 343771 343774 345777 348777
350774 351773 352771 353769 353765 353765
1.00 345802 343797 340797 337802 334806 330809 326814 320830
312844 308850 306856 303865 302872 302877 305879 311874
318859 322853 327846 334832 342818 344810 345806 345802
1.50 311861 311858 310858 309858 309862 311862 311861
24HR QP VT 18/12Z
0.01 498700 495694 491690 483687 476688 467694 460702 453711
444727 441733 440739 438751 433770 432778 431784 430791
429800 427811 427816 425822 422833 421838 419843 416851
413859 411870 411875 410881 410887 409891 409904 409912
410920 412933 413945 412951 413959 416963 417968 426985
430997 434007 437012 439013 442010 444005 446993 447983
448968 447960 446953 439943 435933 436912 436899 439889
444872 456866 462869 464872 466879 463888 459898 456908
460920 462925 462932 463941 465951 469953 473951 475942
477931 478918 481906 483894 484881 483866 479852 474843
468836 462832 456831 453829 455817 458808 475768 483747
491730 494720 497713 498705 498700
0.01 525256 519246 516237 513228 509220 499206 495203 492200
488198 484198 481200 475200 468205 458203 454201 455195
461189 468188 476188 487191 494196 498199 502200 510203
524215 528218 532218 535216 537211 536196 533184 530175
526168 521162 515155 509150 503146 498142 495138 489131
482126 474124 469125 466127 461129 457128 448140 439142
436144 433149 432162 430163 425162 424166 425171 427175
429178 426182 423186 423190 427191 432184 436177 436173
441172 443174 442179 438185 437191 437195 440202 441204
444204 447200 451202 453207 453210 447212 433208 426209
425212 424218 423221 424225 425230 418235 416236 414240
413246 414250 417259 422265 428268 437271 445271 452268
457266 463263 468263 472264 481268 488274 492282 501294
504297 510299
0.01 473115 474109 473105 470098 468091 462091 458076 455060
452052 450043 449037 446031 442029 438030 436032 435036
435042 437048 440055 438061 434066 432068 431072 432077
435079 442080 447085 443086 439086 436087 432087 429086
425086 423087 423092 420119 419127 423133 426133 428131
431126 434123 437122 440122 443125 447128 452125 461116
465116 469119 473115
0.01 382749 380743 376740 370740 364742 351750 343759 342765
342771 342778 344785 347793 351796 363793 369788 372784
375778 377772 380761 382754 382749
0.01 299808 297802 295799 292798 287799 281799 278798 271794
263791 260789 255791 249799 245805 242813 241817 242821
245824 249823 253821 258824 261825 266824 268827 263834
261838 261842 263849 265851 268852 271851 276848 282841
286836 292828 296820 298813 299808
0.25 522265 520258 518254 513244 510234 506225 500216 494209
487206 480206 472208 464212 451217 446219 443222 446233
445239 450242 459245 467248 476253 484259 489267 495276
501284 506286 511285 517281
0.25 524192 521187 516181 504174 499172 496170 494167 490162
485159 477158 470154 466152 464153 466158 469160 472165
476165 480167 484170 488173 491173 498174 500177 502180
506183 512188 517194 520195 523194 524192
0.25 456760 456755 453753 451755 449759 447764 446770 444776
443781 442785 443790 446792 449786 450781 452776 454770
455765 456760
0.25 453101 453098 451097 450097 449097 447097 444099 442100
441101 438104 438105 437108 438110 441111 444111 447109
450106 451105 453103 453101
0.25 268798 266797 265796 262795 261795 259794 257796 257797
255800 255801 254804 255807 256810 258812 259813 262813
265812 267809 267808 267805 267802 267801 268798
0.50 519273 520268 521264 517258 513250 508238 504228 497218
493214 488213 481211 476211 469214 466218 469219 472218
478217 485220 489224 491229 492235 490237 487237 484237
481235 479231 477229 473230 470232 467232 464234 464238
469243 474246 482252 485256 488261 494271 501280 504283
508283 511279 515278 519273
0.50 264800 263799 263797 260796 257798 257800 256803 257804
257806 257807 259808 261809 263807 264803 264801 264800
1.00 516272 518268 517263 517262 514260 511258 510255 509252
509250 507245 506244 505243 504243 503248 504249 506253
506254 508258 509259 510263 511265 512270 513271 515273
516272
1.00 506278 505272 503267 500261 497255 494250 492247 489245
486245 486247 488253 490258 492262 495268 499274 502278
505279 506278
1.50 503276 504272 503269 501266 501265 499261 497260 496257
494254 491257 493260 494263 495265 497269 500273 502275
502276 503276
2.00 503271 501268 500265 498263 496264 498267 499270 500271
503273 503271
24HR QP VT 19/12Z
0.01 486685 485678 483673 476662 471656 465652 459651 456651
453654 441666 437673 434683 431700 430705 428707 425710
421714 416721 412728 404742 400749 395754 383768 380774
378783 377790 375797 371803 367810 363824 361832 359841
356856 354872 352890 351898 351904 351914 353926 354937
356947 360954 364961 366963 371963 375962 381962 384968
387969 391969 397966 401960 406954 413948 420944 426942
432936 435928 436909 436899 436887 435877 436867 438847
440830 449795 454778 457762 460753 463743 466734 470727
475717 480706 484692 486685
0.01 540207 541196 541188 538180 535175 531169 525164 516157
512152 509147 506143 503141 498140 488131 484128 478125
472126 468131 465137 461141 452147 450150 448152 444149
441146 438147 436148 435151 436157 438159 442161 446164
446172 447179 444182 442186 439193 440198 444203 446200
444194 445191 447190 452195 455192 460186 464182 465174
468175 473176 478176 480182 482187 482194 481197 473203
468205 462205 456207 453211 443218 439223 438228 436241
428247 425252 423261 421270 421275 423282 428285 432285
440285 449283 459280 474263 481272 485277 489281 495286
501289 512289 525256 521251 519247 517240 515233 513228
510224 508220 505216 503210 504204 507203 510203 515209
518213 520217 524222 528225 534227 535226
0.01 475111 473106 469103 466101 461100 459100 457098 456091
457083 456080 449074 447071 441070 438072 440074 444077
447080 449089 444092 441093 439091 436092 432094 430100
425105 425108 426111 428115 427119 427122 429125 435118
437116 441116 447121 451123 453120 458113 460112 463113
466115 470115 473113 475111
0.01 416064 413060 410057 402054 397053 392050 386049 379047
372048 370051 371055 378056 385056 392057 387062 385066
386070 387076 389080 391080 395079 399080 403076 408073
411074 414072 416064
0.01 295813 294808 292805 285802 273796 262785 255784 250787
245793 241800 239806 238813 241823 244827 247827 252821
256820 259821 267824 274823 276812 291815 295813
0.25 470673 468667 462663 456662 451663 448666 446670 443675
440690 439705 436712 433717 427732 423745 417757 414763
412770 409783 405789 400793 389803 380812 375817 372823
371835 371844 370852 368864 365878 365884 365893 366908
368918 370923 374929 379926 384921 389916 392913 395906
397899 400894 405890 412887 417884 421879 423872 424864
424854 425847 428834 435821 438807 441793 448764 452749
456736 462721 466706 470689 471680 470673
0.25 517278 520269 519264 515252 507229 502219 499214 494208
492206 486205 477207 470210 461215 449233 444240 442247
443255 445257 448257 452256 461251 464251 470252 476251
479252 487259 492267 496273 499277 505280 510281 517278
0.25 528198 528194 527188 524183 521179 518177 513171 510170
504168 501169 499172 501176 503179 507183 511188 514192
518196 522200 525201 528198
0.25 264800 262796 258793 255792 250794 246798 244802 243805
245811 248813 253811 258809 261807 263803 264800
0.50 516272 517266 515262 512253 506235 499219 494213 490211
485211 478212 472215 468222 462228 458232 452236 450240
450244 455246 459245 465245 474248 482251 488256 492263
496266 501267 507273 511275 516272
0.50 458688 455682 451680 448681 446685 444695 442705 439716
435725 431735 429746 423763 419772 416783 413792 407800
401807 396813 394818 390822 382822 378825 377830 375838
374849 376854 380852 384845 386841 390836 392841 393848
392861 385884 378902 381909 390889 399861 401844 405837
411837 417836 421826 424822 430818 433812 438791 443772
449750 455730 458720 460709 458695 458688
0.50 490234 489230 487228 486227 483226 480226 481231 482233
485235 488235 490234
0.50 259802 260799 258796 257796 254795 251796 249798 247801
246804 247807 249808 252808 255807 257805 259802 259802
1.00 505244 505243 503238 503237 501233 500231 499228 498225
496222 496221 493219 490220 492225 494231 496236 496237
499240 500242 502243 504245 505244
1.00 492253 491250 491248 489244 487246 489249 490252 491254
492253
1.00 452726 450724 448728 448729 451728 452726
1.00 481244 482240 481239 479235 479234 476231 473233 470236
472241 475244 477245 480244 481244
1.00 437753 436748 432755 430760 428765 427770 425776 424782
424787 426786 428781 429775 431770 433765 435759 437753
1.50 479239 478238 476235 474237 475239 478240 479239