000
FXUS04 KWBC 130649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
248 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 13/1200 UTC THRU MAR 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...SRN STATES...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...MODEL QPF CONTINUITY
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED WITH SOME SGFNT DIFFERENCES NOTED ON
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF IN ANY GIVEN 6HR PD.
FORTUNATELY..ALL THE MODELS INDC A SGFNT PCPN EVENT FOR THE LWR MS
AND TN VLYS WITH SOME SMALL LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.  HAVE
LITTLE ARGUMENT WITH THEIR HEAVY TOTALS THERE GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE
HI PW AVBLTY..STGLY DIV FLOW ALOFT AND FVBL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
AN AXIS OF STRONG BAROCLINICITY LYING ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THEY DIFFER SGFNTLY ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE
INITIATION OF THE EVENT OVR ERN/CNTRL TX.  THE GFS IS AT ODDS WITH
MOST GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING LESSER PCPN AMTS THERE AND BELIEVE TO
SOME EXTENT IT IS IN ERROR AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE FEEDBACK ISSUES
BRINGS THE BEST LLVL MSTR CNVGNC TOO QUICKLY EWD.  THE NAM AND THE
GEM REGIONAL ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS PCPN TOTALS OVR
CNTRL/ERN TX EARLY IN THE PD AND BASED ON THE AXIS OF PWS FCST TO
BE IMPINGING ON THAT AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AS WELL AS
THE FVBL DIV ALOFT ASOCTD WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE INDCTD IN
ALL GUIDANCE..WILL LEAN TOWARDS THERE HEAVIER TOTALS THERE.  ALSO
NOTED IS THAT THE QPF ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH THAN MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN A BIAS NOTED IN THAT MODELS QPF OVR THE
PAST 36 HOURS.  SO FOR NOW WILL USE A NAM/GEM REGIONAL BLEND OVR
MUCH OF THE FCST OVR THE SRN STATES THOUGH WILL ADD TO THE TOTALS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NWRN/CNTRL GULF COAST GIVEN THE IMMEDIATE
ACCESS TO GULF MSTR THERE.

...SRN ROCKIES EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS...

MODELS WHILE AGAIN DIFFERING ON DETAILS ALL MAINTAIN AND/OR DVLP
SHWRS FM THE SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS WHERE LOW TO
MID LVL MSTR CNVGNC WILL CONTINUE IN ASOCTN WITH A GRADUALLY
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROF.  STAYED RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE WITH
TOTALS HERE GIVEN SGFNT MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT
THOUGH EXPECT BEST ACTVTY ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE ADJACENT HI
PLAINS WHERE BEST MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD RESIDE.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 540202 539197 538191 536186 533182 529174 522166 517163
      512164 505165 500165 496167 492167 490166 487170 487174
      488179 490183 494189 494195 499199 507205 510207 511214
      512218 515223 519231 523241 517239 513231 507222 505216
      502215 500209 496206 490201 487202 482203 474207 450227
      443231 438237 436244 437250 440253 442256 445256 454255
      460253 465254 470257 477264 480266 479273 476286 475294
      476301 479303 484306 490305 495303 500298 503298 507301
 0.01 392722 390712 386702 381697 376695 372695 370696 364700
      360702 358706 355710 351724 349729 346735 341741 337747
      332752 328756 324762 321769 321776 323780 326783 333777
      337781 339790 337797 333802 328806 326812 324825 324833
      322839 320844 316850 309859 301868 296876 290885 286896
      282911 280922 279929 275936 270945 265954 260962 255970
      252971 250975 252983 257988 261990 267993 274993 278989
      284987 288990 289997 290010 292015 297020 298023 299027
      299032 301038 307047 311049 318052 321056 323062 327065
      329069 327073 325080 325084 326089 330098 333111 337117
      340122 341126 343129 348131 354131 359128 361123 362119
      359114 354110 352107 351103 356103 360107 364108 368109
      371108 371098 374094 378093 386092 391089 392084 390079
      394071 394066 393061 399057 402054 403052 403049 397046
      390042 381035 373028 369025 368019 370007 371003 371998
      369993 366987 362981 358974 355967 352947 352940 353931
      355920 356914 358909 369887 376873 378866 380859 382853
      383844 383830 383814 381807 382801 385789 388776 393761
      394754 394746 393732 392722
 0.25 534225 536219 537211 536201 532192 526186 521181 517178
      513177 510182 511188 514195 518205 521212 523217 525221
      528229 531230 534226 534225
 0.25 520269 520263 519259 514252 510245 506235 503229 499221
      497217 494215 490214 486214 482213 480215 481219 485221
      489224 492230 494235 495239 500246 502250 502256 496259
      492266 491275 495283 499285 502285 508283 512275 517272
      520269
 0.25 491248 490243 487240 481241 476234 472232 464232 458234
      452236 448238 452242 457240 463239 467240 472242 477247
      481251 485250 491248
 0.25 373746 371741 368738 366737 363740 359746 357751 356760
      357767 360775 365778 369775 372766 373759 373750 373746
 0.25 372835 371827 367823 359824 343817 337820 335823 332831
      329843 327852 323862 319869 313877 310880 304883 297889
      292896 289904 287914 287926 284934 282945 281956 282964
      284969 292971 306983 313983 317984 318987 319993 322996
      325995 331993 335995 338996 342995 343989 343979 343952
      344929 347917 349908 358890 362880 365871 371853 372841
      372835
 0.25 379079 380075 380072 377068 374065 369063 367059 366055
      369051 365047 360040 358035 354033 351034 349038 349048
      350054 352058 355063 356068 356072 358073 364073 369072
      372077 375081 379079
 0.50 534210 534205 534203 532200 531198 529194 526195 523197
      524202 524205 525207 527210 530213 532213 534210
 0.50 515262 514260 511257 509259 510265 511265 513265 515262
 0.50 505277 506273 506270 503269 500269 498269 498274 499277
      502279 505277 505277
 0.50 368844 365834 358833 343827 337830 336833 334840 331850
      328859 325867 321873 317880 311887 303892 298896 293903
      290911 291923 289930 287940 286949 287961 291964 293964
      299965 301969 305975 311976 316975 321975 323976 325979
      329978 333977 336973 337962 337952 336946 337939 339932
      341921 344913 347906 350896 364864 367853 368844
 1.00 359855 353854 349851 345848 341848 338852 334863 328874
      321885 313894 310899 306903 300906 296912 297918 295924
      293929 292934 292939 294947 294952 294955 297956 306955
      310957 313962 315964 317963 321959 323953 324945 325938
      328932 331927 333922 338909 344899 348887 352874 357862
      359855
 1.50 345881 345875 342873 339872 334874 325887 316900 312905
      307911 298924 295930 296936 297938 300942 304940 306939
      311938 314938 316936 320929 324924 328917 336901 339896
      342887 345881
 2.00 336891 333889 330890 325894 319903 311911 308916 306921
      302924 298928 298932 300933 302935 305934 313928 307926
      310923 312923 316924 320919 322915 325910 329907 332901
      335895 336891

$$