FXUS04 KWBC 080657 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 156 AM EST WED DEC 08 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID DEC 08/1200 UTC THRU DEC 09/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR PAC NW/NRN CA... OVERALL GOOD AGRMNT IN THE LATEST ETA...GFS AND ETA/RSM SREF MEMBERS ON THE CONTINUING HEAVY PCPN EVENT FOR THE PAC NW INTO NRN CA. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 0000 UTC DEC 9...BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOC WITH THE AMPLIFYING NERN PAC UPR RIDGE. STRONG WSWLY TO WLY ONSHORE FLOW OF 40-50KTS+ WL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL HVY RAINFALL AMTS....ESPECIALLY THRU 0000 UTC DEC 9. STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD AFFECT THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE OF CNTRL TO SRN OR..SWD INTO THE COAST RANGE OF NWRN CA...NRN SIERRA AND SHASTA/SISKIYOU. ACRS THESE AREAS...AREAL AVG 2"+ AMTS ARE LIKELY...WITH MAX 4-5"+ AMTS POSSIBLE IN MOST FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF NWRN WA AND SWRN OR. FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE NRN OR CASCADES...NRN OR COAST RANGE...WA CASCADES AND WA COAST RANGE/OLYMPICS...AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS OF .75-1"+ EXPECTED DAY 1. INLAND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GTBASIN... MODELS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT IN SHOWING STRENGTHENING UVVS THIS MORNING AS HT FALL PUSH INLAND THRU THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO THE UVVS WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HVY PCPN AMTS THRU NRN TO CNTRL ID...NWRN MT...ERN ID/WRN WY AND INTO THE WASATCH OF NRN UT. GULF COAST... SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. TODAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS WED EVENING WL HELP TO STRENGTHEN UVVS ALONG A NWD MOVG WARM FRONT ACRS THE GULF COAST. INCREASINGLY MOIST SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU ACRS THE WRN TO CNTRL GULF COAST...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY. HEAVIEST PCPN AMTS IN THE 1-2" RANGE WERE DEPICTED ACRS SRN LA INTO SWRN MS WHERE MODELS WERE DEPICTING BEST RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOC BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE. NERN U.S... HT FALLS WL BE MOVG STEADILY NEWD WED THRU NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HEAVIEST PCPN DAY 1 WITH THESE HT FALLS WL BE ACRS THE CANADIAN MARTIMES WITH ONLY LIGHT WRAP ARND AFFECTING NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 09/12Z 0.01 477757 493749 507728 513693 510658 499622 485593 480589 478588 474588 468593 465590 462592 457598 451605 443609 438613 436619 435626 438637 440645 443653 447664 448672 445679 444683 443689 445696 445703 440711 436715 429720 426723 425726 426730 425735 423741 420749 420753 422755 425759 425763 423768 420776 415780 407784 401789 389799 385804 384807 385810 391812 398812 403814 409814 417811 422809 433813 438812 441808 445803 447796 448787 449772 451767 453764 459760 465758 473758 477757 0.01 351215 359226 384250 423268 470281 492297 504289 517270 532231 538194 540164 543142 542109 539078 533035 531027 527012 508960 491926 480915 466919 467942 477965 484980 487995 486002 487012 488024 490031 491040 494049 494054 494072 495083 496086 498086 503090 503096 498096 491095 482094 475092 469089 460083 453075 444068 441069 441073 443078 445083 444085 438084 433080 427072 426056 416050 410049 403049 398050 393053 389057 385060 382061 378061 368060 364063 364066 368077 372090 375100 374115 374124 375131 374138 373144 374151 377155 385164 397181 396185 393187 388187 380182 360175 353173 350174 349175 345185 342192 343199 348207 351215 0.01 381843 379835 377830 375826 371821 367819 362817 358817 356820 349827 339834 329839 322847 319850 316849 312847 307846 303846 296849 293851 291855 287874 288878 284886 276909 269935 270943 275958 285968 298968 350929 352925 359916 364908 366899 367886 367880 369876 374868 378859 381850 381843 0.25 499631 497623 493616 485603 482600 478596 475597 471600 459623 455627 453633 453639 455644 461671 463683 465692 463698 462702 462709 463713 466714 470715 478716 483715 488711 500689 501664 504653 502643 499635 499631 0.25 528203 530199 530194 529189 525178 520168 514160 505153 500146 492135 487129 478123 473121 469121 463121 461118 456105 455101 452097 448094 443093 437093 432092 427088 424092 424096 425100 423101 421104 418107 415107 409099 406098 404102 401106 396109 389113 385116 383120 386123 388123 394123 405125 412127 414131 415135 415139 413153 413161 415165 423169 426171 428176 428181 427185 423190 416195 412200 407202 404201 395197 387193 379188 375186 369185 365185 363189 364192 367200 366205 363207 356209 355213 359216 370230 385243 393248 398251 402253 422255 444258 461259 471260 480262 493275 500282 504281 508278 511275 515269 517263 519254 518248 517242 513232 508222 502214 494204 488200 478200 474202 468203 462203 457201 456195 458190 464183 468179 471179 479182 486185 491186 497188 502191 510197 522206 526206 528203 0.25 413072 414066 412064 407060 401061 392064 388068 384073 380074 376075 376081 378084 384088 387087 389085 394083 398082 404079 410076 413072 0.25 361873 358865 355859 346849 341847 338849 331854 327858 317866 308874 299882 291890 288896 286902 282913 281926 282936 284942 287948 289954 291956 295955 300953 311947 318943 322939 327928 330922 334916 340907 347897 355887 358881 360875 361873 0.50 496628 495624 493621 491617 483606 479603 476606 474617 474629 474632 472635 469636 467641 467645 470654 473665 478676 483680 485675 487672 489670 491665 493661 495658 498656 500653 501647 500641 497638 497633 496628 0.50 513266 516259 516253 514244 512236 508228 500214 494208 486204 479203 472206 465207 457206 451205 449201 450195 452193 454188 456185 459182 461179 462173 463169 465169 473170 479174 486179 492180 500181 506183 514188 518188 518184 515177 513174 508171 502166 497163 482154 475150 473146 471145 468142 464140 455140 451138 449135 445130 440125 437124 435128 431134 429142 430151 433159 437165 442174 442180 438188 435197 433200 431201 423200 419201 418206 416208 412210 405206 400202 391198 380192 375190 372190 371195 372198 374227 378234 382238 395247 403250 413252 418252 428253 441252 454251 461250 470252 479256 484261 500277 503277 505275 509271 513266 0.50 506258 504253 501247 498244 496239 494235 489230 486227 480225 477225 480228 482232 485235 488236 490239 493244 497250 500254 502258 506258 0.50 494149 494144 492139 489135 488134 486132 484130 481129 478127 475127 472128 471128 469132 469136 469141 471144 474145 477145 480145 483146 485147 488150 491151 494149 0.50 450117 451112 450105 447099 432096 423105 419111 413110 409105 406106 403108 397111 394113 391116 400121 404122 408122 411122 418126 422131 425131 428128 431123 434120 437119 446121 450117 0.50 353875 351872 345872 334875 324879 313884 298892 293896 291899 288908 286917 286927 289936 292942 295944 298945 303943 311938 316932 321924 325917 330910 336902 341896 348889 351885 352879 353875 1.00 507245 507244 506239 505238 503234 503233 501230 500228 498224 498223 496218 496217 494215 491216 490220 493223 494226 495228 496231 497233 499237 502241 503243 504245 507245 507245 1.00 500265 498263 496260 496259 494255 493253 491250 490248 489245 487243 483244 481244 479244 480245 482249 483250 485253 486255 487257 490260 491262 492263 495265 498267 500265 1.00 465221 463216 460213 457213 446213 440213 434212 428207 424205 422210 421214 418216 405210 397204 392201 387199 383198 381199 380202 384214 385220 385228 387233 389237 392240 398245 404248 411249 423250 435250 443247 451243 456240 454236 451235 445233 448229 453226 458225 462225 465221 1.00 457160 457156 456154 452151 447149 443145 439141 436139 434144 434152 436156 440161 443164 446167 448169 451168 455164 457160 1.00 404118 412120 415119 416118 412113 409111 405110 404114 404118 1.00 330896 331893 329891 323892 312895 302899 297901 294904 291913 290923 293928 296930 299932 305930 310925 316917 321909 325903 330896 1.50 449225 450222 449219 444217 436217 427218 421225 418224 418221 416217 413214 408214 392203 390201 387202 386205 387209 391214 398219 401223 401228 396230 394233 395238 397242 405246 423249 431248 438246 442244 443239 440234 441231 444230 449225 1.50 449163 451159 450156 448154 447153 444151 442149 441148 439145 439144 438145 437148 437152 438156 440157 441157 444159 446160 449163 449163 1.50 319903 317901 314902 311901 305903 300904 298906 295909 294916 293919 293922 295925 298925 304924 306922 309918 313915 315911 317907 319903 2.00 446224 445222 442221 439221 437222 436222 433224 431224 433226 435228 438228 441228 442227 444226 446224 2.00 433245 435241 433237 428235 419233 414228 414219 404213 394206 392206 391208 393213 397216 404220 407224 407228 407233 404235 400234 398238 402242 406244 417247 424248 429247 433245 2.00 311911 310910 307911 304912 302914 299916 298918 297921 298921 300921 303920 304920 305918 308916 309915 310913 311911 3.00 429244 430240 428238 425236 422236 419235 417233 414233 411233 410234 408237 407241 409243 412244 415245 417245 420246 423246 424246 426246 429244 4.00 428243 427241 426239 425238 422237 419236 416235 415235 413236 411238 412241 415242 418243 421244 424244 427244 428243 5.00 425242 424241 421240 418240 417240 418241 421242 424243 425242 N$$