AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 910 PM PDT WED JUN 28 2000 EARLIER UPDATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE DOWN THE SIERRA TO THE 3000 FOOT ELEVATION OF THE MOTHERLODE. CONVECTION DIMINISHED QUICKLY IN LESS FAVORABLE REGION OF THE MOTHERLODE AS EXPECTED BUT SENT A NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN ON WSR-88D AS 10-20DBZ FINE LINE. EXPLOSION CONVECTION DEVELOPED TODAY OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERNEV...MAINLY SOUTH OF US-50. STRONGEST CELL AFFECTED WESTERN ALPINE COUNTY AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES. RADAR SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE VIL OF 65 KG/M2 AND VIL DENSITY VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 4.1 AND 4.8. THIS LIKELY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL BUT WAS BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 4 AND 108 IN FOREST. LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION ZONE AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY COMBINED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING TRIGGERED THESE STORMS. RENO SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 0.81 INCHES WITH A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. MOST MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED AT 550MB. RAN A COUPLE RUC ANALYZED SOUNDINGS OVER THE SIERNEV WHICH PRODUCED CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG OVER THE THUNDERSTORM REGION. MSAS SHOWED LI'S AS LOW AS -4. WITH SUNSET CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. AFTER ANOTHER 100+ DAY IN THE SAC VALLEY A DELTA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED WITH 19 KNOTS AT FAIRFIELD. SAC-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 3.9-MB WHICH IS UP SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. LIMITED COOLING EFFECT HOWEVER AS KOAK MARINE LAYER ONLY 1100 FEET. MSAS SHOWING THERMAL LOW IN NORTHERN SAC VALLEY AT 03Z. MODELS INDICATE A RELAXING GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SETTING UP FOR MORE HEAT TOMORROW IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS. THEN GRADIENT IS SHOWN TO BECOME ONSHORE SFO-SAC OF 4.0MB AGAIN ON THE ETA. ETA HANDLES THIS BETTER WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION OF 32KM. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOISTURE INCHING NORTHWARD FROM BAJA BUT RUNNING INTO DEFORMATION ZONE. H7 PROGS SHOW SOME OF THIS ADVECTING INTO THE CWA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW OPENS UP. MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY H5 FLOW OVER THE SIERNEV WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER VORT CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEVADA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE CREST EASTWARD. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A FLAT 588DM H5 RIDGE AND H85 TEMPS DOWN ONLY A DEGREE. COOLING TREND STILL ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER DIGGING H5 TROF. STRONG DELTA BREEZE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH H5 HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO LOWER. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z/28 MRF CLOSES A LOW OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE NOGAPS AND CANADIEN ARE MORE PROGESSIVE. ONLY UPDATES EXPECTED WOULD BE TO FRESHNESS OF ZONE WORDING. .STO...NONE. TARDY ca SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 200 PM MDT WED JUN 28 2000 CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE IN THE FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND TEMPS. CURRENT SITUATION... UPPER TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN US PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW AS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDES PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. TOGETHER THESE HAVE PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SURGE FROM THE NORTH HAS PROVIDED SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN OVER THE EAST AND ADDED TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS IT LIFTS AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL MOVE INTO HIGEER CAPE AREAS JUST EAST OF MOUNTAINS ACCORDING TO 18Z RUC SO POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME OF THEM TO BECOME SEVERE OVER AND CLOSE TO MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... TEMPS AND POPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO NRN COLO. SHOULD WARM UP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HEATING FEEL AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER. ALL THAT ENERGY MOVES EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT RETURNS AROUND BACKSIDE OF RIDGE ON FRIDAY. AVN HAS MORE MOISTURE THAN ETA AT 60 HOURS AND SEEMS TO DO BETTER IN THAT TIME FRAME SO WILL LEAVE CHC OR SLGT CHC POPS IN MOST AREAS. IN THE EXTENDED... UPPER RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER SW US WITH TROFS ON EITHER US COAST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A WARMING PERIOD BUT MODELS CONTIUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE FROM EAST PAC WITH SHORT WAVES RIPPLING AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL PUT CHC POPS IN SATURDAY BUT LEAVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. MRF MOVES UPPER RIDGE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY AS UPPER TROF OVER EAST PAC DEEPENS. .PUB...NONE. co EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 835 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2000 CONVECTION REDEVELOPED ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CTYS THIS EVENING. ACTVTY IS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ACTIVE FROM NE OSCEOLA INTO VOLUSIA. VEERING OF STEERING FLOW N OF THE RIDGE ALREADY IN EVIDENCE AS ACTVTY MOVING TO THE NE...N OF THE CAPE. WILL HOLD OFF ON UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL ALL HAS DIED DOWN. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MESO-ET/RUC SHOW BROAD SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHARPEN AND BE LOCATED JUST S OF THE CWA BY MORNING. WHILE SOME DRYING ADVERTISED NEAR NOSE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE...THE E SIDE OF PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION NEXT FEW DAYS. MARINE...WINDS AT BUOYS STILL SHOWING A SE DIRECTION BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER AFTER SUNSET AS GRADIENT FLOW TAKES OVER AND RIDGE DRIFTS S. .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOTTMAN AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KELLY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2000 CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF SOUTHWEST FL COAST IS FLOODING THE WATERS OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AS IT CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH AIDED BY SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE. SMALL CU LINES STREAMING OFF BAHAMIAN ISLANDS IN LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW ARE FIRING UP AS THEY PASS UNDER STREAK MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN FL AND BAHAMAS. MARINE WINDS CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT AROUND SURFACE RIDGE FROM ATLANTIC INTO N FL. 12Z EYW RAOB SHOWS AIRMASS IS A LITTLE LESS MOIST THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PW OF 1.84 INCHES AND 31 K INDEX. NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO PUBLIC FORECAST. MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...BUT WILL HOLD OFF TILL TONIGHT AS PER LATEST RUC...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO COASTAL FORECAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN CHOKOLOSKEE ZONE COULD BE BUMPED UP BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE DECREASING SHORTLY. .EYW...NONE JEB fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 925 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2000 CURRENTLY/FORECAST...BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WHICH IS NOT A NORMAL LOCATION FOR THIS TIME OF THE MORNING. THIS LIKELY INDICATES THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SCALE FACTOR INFLUENCING THE AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC H25 WINDS SHOW DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW. RUC WAS ALSO SHOWING THE WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS CONTINUING AT H50 ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOW AS MUCH...OR MORE PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN YESTERDAY (1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES). BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS PROVIDING DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. THOUGH THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF SOME DRYING AT H70 ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING...THINK THAT THE PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. MAIN DANGER WILL BE LIGHTNING BUT THE PRESENCE OF SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WILL PROBABLY BUMP UP THE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH AND GOOD CHANCE FOR BREVARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS/SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE... THOUGH EROSION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS YESTERDAY LED TO A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EVENING. MARINE...MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS SINCE THE BROAD RIDGE WAS PROVIDING SOUTHEAST/SOUTH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS. .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GLITTO fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 751 PM MDT WED JUN 28 2000 UPDATED AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR A FEW REASONS...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA... BEST MOISTURE BEING PUSHED UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO THE SECOND REASON. ADJUSTED WINDS A BIT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CWA. JUST MENTIONED SOUTHEAST BUT LOWERED SPEEDS TO 5 TO 10 MPH BASED ON LATEST RUC/18Z ETA. OVER THE EAST KEPT IT LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST. AS FOR CLOUDCOVER...00Z RUC INDICATING BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY SKY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE APPROACHING 80 PERCENT OR SO SUGGESTING SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP. FURTHER EAST...AREA REMAINS UNDER SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH AND LITTLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST SO I ADJUSTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR TEMPS...18Z ETA SUGGESTING 50 TO 55 OVER THE NORTH (WHERE LOWEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE) WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST. REMAINING ZONES LOOK GOOD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. .GLD...NONE. THEDE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1158 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2000 FCST CONCERN THIS AFTN IS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WITH LAKE BREEZE/TROF INTERACTION 14Z SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS REGION SHOWS SFC TROF LOCATED OVR ERN MN MVG SLWLY SE. CONVERGENCE ALG TROF AND EXITING H3 JET STREAK HAS PRODUCED VRY SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS NRN WI INTO SW UPR MI THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS FROM DLH 88D SHOW ACTIVITY DECREASING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO CWA. IN LIGHT OF TRENDS AND UPDATE ATTENTION MAINLY FOCUSED ON -TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY SPRINKLE MENTION OUT OF ZONES. BELIEVE THAT MAIN RESULT FM ABOVE FORCING ERLY AFTN WL BE THICKENING OF DIURNAL CU. AFTN CONVECTION WL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF LK BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC SHOWS LK BREEZE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z- 21Z. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR ESC AT 21Z USING SFC TEMP/DWPT OF 69F/54F YIELDS (LI/SBCAPE) OF (-5/1300JKG). AREAS ALONG LK MI WL SEE BEST SFC INSTABILITY DUE TO LK BREEZE TRANSPORTING 55F LK MI AIR INTO AREA. FARTHER WEST DWPTS OF UPR 40S WL LIMIT INSTABILITY. FAIRLY GOOD DIF TEMP ADVECTION AS H5 COLD POOL OF -19 TO -21C SLIDES OVR AREA AFT 21Z...PRODUCING H10-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM. ALL IN ALL BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WL BE ALONG LK BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES IN ERN HALF OF UPR MI...AND ALSO ALG LK SUPERIOR/SFC TROF CONVERGENCE ZONE IN WRN UPR MI. MIXING TO H75 (00Z INL SOUNDING) AND UPSTREAM HIGHS YIELD TEMPS IN THE 65 TO 70F DEGREE RANGE. FCST TEMPS SEEM TO HAVE THIS IN HAND AND WL LEAVE ALONG NOW. HOWEVER IF THICKER CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR MAJ OF AFTN...TEMPS OF 70F WL BE HARD TO ATTAIN. .MQT...NONE. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2000 SCATTERED SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND A FEW SHOWERS IN SW MN. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN NRN AND ERN ZONES. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOWING UP IN NW MN WITH RUC MODEL FORECASTING 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER SRN MN/WRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY IS FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH FORECAST PRESSURE FALLS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT WEAK WARM ADVECTION. .MSP...NONE SCOTT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1018 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2000 ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS FOARD COUNTY. LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE AREA...WITH RECENT RUC/ETA GUIDANCE CONTINUING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THROUGH 700 MB ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS FOR NOW WHERE RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA...BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM FROM THE SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THEY ONLY CURRENTLY EXIST...ONCE PRECIP DIMINISHES COMPLETELY. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE LOWERED TO ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AT THE SURFACE. EXCEPT FOR WIDESPREAD CIRRUS...LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE NOT ABUNDANT...AND WITH PRIMARILY SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED IN THIS LAYER OVERNIGHT...DONT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF ADDITIONAL AND PROLONGED CLOUD DECKS. FOG IS A POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT WILL BE A BATTLE TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY FOG. WILL PROBABLY SEE PATCHY FOG WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE MORE AND WHERE RAIN WAS HEAVIEST LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...BUT DON'T BELIEVE IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. RECENT ANALYSES AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS WELL ADDRESSED BY CURRENT FORECAST. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. JAMES ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC 950 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2000 RUC 9Z AND ETA 6Z BOTH HAVE CWA IN WEAK 500 MB NVA THIS MORNING AND WEAK PVA THIS AFTN. ETA HAS US IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. BASED ON ETA FCST AND CURRENT LAPS/MSAS/GOES VALUES EXPECT AFTN LI/S AROUND -5 AND CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST. GOES SOUNDING HAS PW AROUND 2 IN AS DOES ETA FCST. FFC CHS AND GSO 12Z RAOBS SHOW 1.6 TO 1.8 IN. SO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTN CONVECTION. LOOK FOR WEAK PVA LATE THIS AFTN TO KICK OFF SCT TSTMS. WILL RAISE POPS A TAD FROM EARLY MRNG PKG FOR TDY AND TNGT. TEMP FCST LOOKS REASONABLE SO WILL NOT ALTER. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -7...MODEST CAPE AND WIND SHEAR SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE SVR. FCSTID = 04...CAMMARATA CAE 92 73 87 68 / 30 30 50 40 AGS 92 69 88 68 / 30 30 50 40 SSC 92 73 87 68 / 30 30 50 40 OGB 92 73 87 68 / 30 30 50 40 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 938 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2000 CLOUDS AND SHRAS DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR NE SD AND WC MN ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. RUC MDL SHOWS DEEP DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE SOME SMALL CHANGES. .ABR...NONE MOHR N sd TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1017 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2000 COOL SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. 00Z ANLYS INDICATES SOME WEAK 8H UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW SFC AND BL WINDS TO CONT FROM A NE TO E DIRECTION. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE A SURE BET AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT EXTENT OF BR/FG IS STILL UNCERTAIN SINCE SFC DEW POINTS ARE LOWERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL COUNTIES. 00Z SOUNDING HAD ONLY 700 J/KG WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. 00Z RUC KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AREA OF TSRA OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AND SOUTH PLAINS FROM MOSQUERO TO TUCUMCARI TO FRIONA HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE SUNSET. UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WAA PATTERN SHOULD NOT REDEVELOP UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE FOR CURRENT TRENDS OUT SHORTLY...TEMPS LOOK FINE. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. SLATTERY tx UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH 900 AM MDT WED JUN 28 2000 SYNOPSIS...A UNSTABLE AND SOMEWHAT MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...WHILE A DRIER AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. DISCUSSION...AIRMASS CONTINUES MOIST AT MID LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS SEEN BY CLOUDS ON SATELLITE AND PLENTY OF ECHOES ON THE RADAR AND EVEN LIGHTENING JUST SOUTH OF PUC. UPDATED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND UPDATED FFI TO MODERATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...THUS GIVEN EXISTING MOISTURE WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GARDEN VARIETY CELLS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CELLS IN THE NORTH AND THIS SUPPORTED BY RUC AND NEW ETA WITH MODEST CAPES AND LI'S FROM THE UINTAS WESTWARD TO U24. SLC 1-- CDC 222 BURCH .SLC...NONE. ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 929 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2000 WK HI PRESS SYS TO REMAIN OVER THE FA TONITE. WK SFC SYS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACRS SRN NEW ENG ON THU. VORT MAX (AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HI CLDS) MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW ATTM. UPR L/W TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION OVRNITE TONITE AND ON THU. S/W'S TO ROTATE AROUND THIS TROF ON THU. 21Z RUC SHOWS LT WINDS ACRS THE FA OVRNITE WITH TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE U50S-M60S. SFC TEMPS ALREADY IN THE M60S IN A FEW LOCALES... SO THIS SEEMS A BIT ON THE HI SIDE. LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION/SRN NEW ENG TONITE. PLENTY OF UPR-LVL MOISTURE TO BE AROUND THE FA OVRNITE. IR SAT PIX SHOW PLENTY OF CLDS UPSTREAM OF THE FA ATTM. ANY PCPN EARLY TONITE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA. DEEPER MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM THE W-SW ACRS THE NORTHEAST OVRNITE AND LINGER ACRS THE REGION ON THU. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...WITH WK WAA (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA) ON THU. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN HI ACRS THE FA THRU THU. CAPES ACRS THE FA ON THU APPEAR TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 200-500 J/KG WITH WK SHEAR AND PW VALUES AROUND 1". BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS EASTERN/SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. FEEL BEST CHC FOR PCPN ON THU WILL BE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN/SRN PARTS OF THE FA. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. ADDED A LOT MORE CLDS FOR THE OVRNITE PERIOD. ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND SAT PIX TRENDS. JUST A FEW COSMETIC TWEAKS TO LATER PERIOD WIND AND POP WORDING. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP IN A BIT AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP DATA AND THE 01Z OBS. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 220 AM MST THU JUN 29 2000 SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER FORECAST REVOLVING AROUND HOW MUCH CLEARING WE'LL SEE DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT OVER COCHISE COUNTY AT 09Z BASED ON RADAR. ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT IN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WHICH EXTENDS OUT TO THE OODHAM NATION. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE THIS MORNING, THOUGH, IS THAT THESE CELLS ARE STAYING WARM TOPPED AND NOT ANVILING OUT VERY MUCH. WITH LESS ANVIL DEBRIS, WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PARTIALLY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DRYING PROGRESSING IN FROM SW AZ AS ANOTHER VORT MAX LIFTS NE TOWARD THE WESTERN RIM. UNDERNEATH THE "DRYING" ALOFT, PRECIP WATERS ARE HOLDING AROUND 1.8" ACCORDING TO GOES-10 SOUNDER DATA. KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A LEAK OUT OF THE GULF OF CA (ABOUT 20KTS) EXTENDING UP TO 5KFT. OTHER MID LEVEL VORTS APPEAR TO BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SONORA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF, WITH EXTRAPOLATION PUTTING THE 1ST ONE INTO SE AZ BY 18Z. MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES, BUT ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL STOP CLOSE TO KTUS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER COCHISE COUNTY LIFTS TOWARD THE RIM. EVEN WITH THE DRYING ALOFT, SOUNDINGS SAY SOPPING WET WITH ONLY SLIGHT VEERING IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? I'VE BEEN HITTING AFTERNOON TSMTS TOO HARD THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ASSUMING THAT VALLEY CONVECTION COULD GET GOING BEFORE 5PM. CONVECTION HAS FIRED BEFORE THEN, BUT HAS TENDED TO STAY ON THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL SUNSET. THAT'S THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO E OF KTUS TODAY WHERE THE VORT MAX WILL HOLD THE CLOUDS IN. ELSEWHERE, THOUGH, STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FIRE EARLIER TODAY WITH LESS DEBRIS AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING ALLOWING THE SUN TO DO ITS JOB. WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAYING AROUND AND A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD, CELL MERGERS AND RESULTING FLASH FLOODING MAY BE MORE COMMON. I DON'T WANT TO USE HEAVY RAIN WORDING YET BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH WE'RE SEEING SOME DRYING ALOFT, THE MID LEVELS ARE VERY SOUPY AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO KEEP FORMING WIDESPREAD ALTOCU. THE RUC AND MESOETA CORRECTLY PREDICTED LOUSY CAPES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTRARY TO THE AVN/ETA, BUT THEN HAD AN UPSWING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. TODAY THEY DO THE SAME THING IN THE E, BUT BRING 1000-1500 CAPES INTO PIMA/PINAL COUNTIES BY 21Z. WE MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SINCE THE DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PASSING OVER THE THETA-E RIDGE. DAY SHIFT WILL BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO USE STRONGER WORDING SHOULD THE CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN EARNEST, AND WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND A NEW MODEL RUN. AFTER TODAY, A BROKEN-RECORD MONSOON FORECAST IS IN ORDER. I STARTED HAVING DOUBTS YESTERDAY ABOUT A DOWNSWING I THOUGHT WE MIGHT HAVE THIS WEEKEND. NOW I SEE NO DOWNSHIFT AT ALL. IN FACT, WEAK SHORT WAVES SPINNING OFF THE E PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GIVE US DECENT DYNAMICS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY, EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM. HAVE DECIDED TO THROW IN THE TOWEL AND SWITCH TO "SCATTERED" WORDING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NO SENSE TRYING TO HEDGE WHEN PRECIP WATERS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 1.25" RIGHT ON THROUGH THE 4TH. PYTLAK .TWC...NONE. az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 315 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000 ONE FINAL SW IS PUSHING THE FNT S THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG. THIS IS AGAIN GENERATING SOME SHWRS ALG THE FNT IN THE W. THE FNT SHOWS UP NICE IN THAT DEWPOINTS TO THE NW ARE IN THE 50S AND SE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. ETA SHOWS THIS DRIER AIR MOVG ACRS THE AREA THIS MRNG. ALSO LOOKING 06Z RUC PICKS UP ON SHWRS IN THE W NOW AND MOVES THEM NE ACRS THE AREA THRU 15Z. LOOKS LIKE THIS AFTN SHD SEE SOME CLRG. WL MENTION THUNDER OVR THE SRN PART OF THE AREA INTO ERLY AFTN. MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MOVG BY THIS AFTN BUT BY THEN MOST OF MOISTURE WL BE SE OF THE AREA AND PRECIP SHD END. ON TNGT AND FRI SHD BE CLR SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRI. WL GO WITH OR A LITTLE ABV FWC NUMBERS. FAN HAS WARMER DAY TIMES HIGHS WHICH SEEM TO WARM WITH OUT MORE SUN TDY. .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. JAB md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 920 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2000 DISC: THE WEAKEST FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BRING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT AS PCPN CONTINUES TO FOCUS INVOF OF SFC WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SW STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY HIGH K VALUES OF 40 THRUOUT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF HVY RAIN. PWT'S 1.5 - 1.75 ACROSS SRN END OF CFA. ETA SHWNG STRONG S/W MOVING OVER OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z MOVING INTO NRN PA BY DAYBREAK SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPWARD VERT MOTION. SFC WAVE MAYBE E OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG PCPN BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC2 SHOWING MEAN RH OVER OHIO VALLEY OF 80%. MESO ETA CONTINUES TREND OF STRONG VV AFTER 06Z. ANYWAY...W/B SENDING WRKZNS OUT AND MAY UP THE WORDING FOR OCNL HVY RAIN IN SOME NRN ZONES. EXCEPT FOR THE RAIN...MARINE AREA RATHER QUIET FOR OCEAN/BAY. ....NOTE...OUR WEB SITE HAS A NICE SUMMARY FOR THE "PERFECT STORM" AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE. WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI SEE YA AT 4 AM. .PHI...NONE. EBERWINE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1008 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000 CURRENTLY: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT DRAPED ENE TO WSW ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND AL. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED A FAIRLY LARGE CLEAR AREA ACROSS MUCH OF S GA AND THE BIG BEND. AREA RADARS INDICATE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL AL AND JUST E OF CSG. FAIRLY EVENLY DISTRIBUTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GULF SPREADING ACROSS THE E BIG BEND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FURTHER W AND THEN A LARGER AREA OF TSRA S OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND W ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF MOB. MORNING TLH SOUNDING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWAT OF 1.90 INCHES AND UNMODIFIED CAPE AND LI OF 2725 J/KG AND -5 RESPECTIVELY. MODELS/ZFP: LATEST RUC AND 06Z ETA SEEM TO SUPPORT THE 00Z ETA/NGM SOLUTION OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE (8-9 UNITS) PASSING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE STRONGER AVN. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATES THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THAT SAID...WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING INSOLATION AND THE SLOWLY ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WE FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. 14Z TEMP ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OF PREDICTED MAX DUE TO GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE. WILL NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMP FORECAST UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. MARINE: SCEC CONDITIONS ALREADY OBSERVED AT BUOY 42039 AND APPROACHING AT CAPE SAN BLAS. OTHER MARINE OBS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KT AT THIS TIME. KTLH VWP SHOWING STEADY 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 1-10 KFT. MOST MODEL SFC WIND FORECASTS INDICATE MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS WITH NGM A BIT STRONGER. PLAN TO LEAVE SCEC HEADLINES IN PLACE. SEAS HAVE ONLY JUST BEGUN TO RESPOND TO THE WINDS...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH... THEY SHOULD RISE TO PREDICTED LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. WOOL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1030 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000 SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: CHALLENGE THIS UPDATE IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL CONVECTION BE & ANY SVR?. WRKZFP OUT. PLENTY OF ACCAS THIS MRNG INDICATING INSTABILITY. WILL CONT W/PRVS TREND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. BEST SHOT FOR NRN/CNTL ME W/VORT MAX ACRS LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO FCST TO MOVE NE ACRS NRN/CNTL ZNS THIS AFTN-EARLY EVNG. 12Z CAR RAOB ALREADY UNSTABLE W/CAPES ARND 300 J/KG & TTS 47. LIS -2. PWS ARND .75". ATMOS EXPECTED TO DESTABLIZE MORE. MID-UPPER LVLS COOLED OVER PAST 12 HRS & EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MORE AS S/WV APCHS. 12Z RUC SNDGS CLOSE TO REALITY & FCSTG THGS TO DESTABLIZE RAPIDLY THIS AFTN W/CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HAIL W/TSRAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THGS CLOSELY THIS AFTN. FOR TEMPS...BELIEVE PRVS PKG IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL SEE ABOUT ADJUSTMENTS AFT 10 AM OBS. COASTAL WATERS...STEADY AS SHE GOES. NO CHGS ANTICIPATED. S WINDS THIS AFTN 10-15. .CAR...NONE. JOE me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1015 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000 THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES AND INTO MY CWA THIS AFTN. EXAMINED BOTH THE 12Z RUC AND THE 06Z MESO-ETA. BOTH MODELS INDICATED A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. MODERATE PVA OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SURPRISING SHOWED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. A MID LEVEL CAP WAS EVIDENT ON THE SOUNDING AS WELL. THIS CAP SHOULD ERODE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SAT IMG SHOWED SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. IN SUMMARY...I THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE THE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER. I WILL KEEP CHC POPS ALL AREAS. I MAY HAVE TO UP POPS TO LIKELY/HIGH CHC FOR NW PA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. .CLE...NONE. GARNET oh EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 900 AM PDT THU JUN 29 2000 LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THAN ANTICIPATED. WE WILL UPDATE ALL ZONES TO COVER THIS. LATEST ETA AND LAST NIGHT'S AVN SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE RUNNING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY. THIS...ALONG WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH MOISTURE ALOFT IS CAUSING THE CLOUDINESS. ONE GOOD THING IS THE VORTICITY ADVECTION IS CHANNELED AND WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY'S SHORTWAVE. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALONG WITH Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE SUPPORTS NO THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ONE THING THAT MIGHT TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOWER LEVELS WITH THE INCOMING MARINE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ETA AND RUC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING SO I FEEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL NOT CAUSE ANY BUILDUPS TODAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AS THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EAST. EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO IS RIGHT UNDER THE THERMAL RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER. ZONES JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER SINCE THE THERMAL RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST. THE BIG CONCERN IS THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS THAT WE SHOULD MIX CLOSE TO 700 MB. THEREFORE...AS THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE MARINE PUSH MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE SHOULD MIX DOWN 25-30 KT WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN MANY AREAS. WE WILL UPDATE THE AFFECTED ZONES AND BOOST THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THE FIRST AND/OR SECOND PERIODS. TJC ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 089/054/083 000 CQV 093/050/088 000 S86 088/049/081 000 COE 089/052/082 000 WWP 086/046/080 000 LWS 095/060/088 000 MOS 087/048/081 EAT 092/061/084 000 .GEG...NONE. wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 236 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2000 CURRENTLY: COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AS A THIN LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SC WSW ACROSS N GA NEAR ATLANTA AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO S MS. CONVECTION IS FIRING RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM AL BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SEWD TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY WITH ISOLATED TS. MODELS/ZFP: FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS OUR CWFA. THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS HAS DONE LITTLE TO CLARIFY THIS SITUATION. THE ETA BRINGS THE FRONT INTO OUR NW ZONES AFTER 06Z AND THEN FORMS A WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY IN SW GA. THIS EFFECTIVELY HALTS ANY FURTHER SEWD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT..BUT DOES ALLOW IT GET THROUGH OUR SE AL ZONES. THE NGM ALSO FORMS A WAVE ON THE FRONT...BUT FURTHER E NEAR THE GA COAST. THIS ALLOWS THE FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO N FL FRI AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE SE BIG BEND BY FRI NIGHT. THE AVN FORMS A STRONGER WAVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THAT IN TURN WHIPS THE FRONT THROUGH TLH BY MIDDAY FRI AND INTO CENTRAL FL BY SAT MORNING. THE AVN IS ALSO MORE POTENT WITH IT/S UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES THAN DEPICTED BY ETA OR NGM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RUC FAVOR THE WEAKER ETA/NGM SOLUTION. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD ARGUE FOR A SLUGGISH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. WE WILL THEREFORE PLAN ON FOLLOWING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD NGM FOR TIMING FROPA. FWC/FAN POPS ARE REMARKABLE SIMILAR CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES. WE PLAN ON FOLLOWING A BLEND FOR TONIGHT AND GOING ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER FOR FRI. WILL ACCEPT ISOLD POPS FOR FRI NIGHT. BY SAT...THE FRONT HAS EITHER MOVED THROUGH OR WEAKENED SO SEA BREEZE CLIMO TAKE OVER. ALL MODELS SHOW DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER PWATS. THE ETA DROPS THE PWAT BELOW 1.4 INCHES SAT AFTERNOON. 1000-700 MB FLOW SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE FLOW WHICH ARGUES FOR A 30 TO 40 POP IN FL. WITH MINIMAL INLAND PENETRATION OF SBF...WILL LOWER POPS N OF THE BORDER ON SAT. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS EXCEPT WILL GO A FEW DEGREES LOWER FOR FRI MAX DUE TO ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SHRA. MARINE: MOST MAREPS SUSTAINED AOA 15 KT AND WILL LEAVE SCEC IN PLACE FOR NOW. SW WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH A BIT BY MORNING. W WIND FRI AND THEN NW FRI NIGHT. EXTENDED: THE FRONT IS S OF US BY SUN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. OUR FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE SE SUPPORTING DAILY SEA BREEZE POPS. THANKS FOR COORDINATION JAX. OTHER INPUT ALWAYS WELCOME. PRELIM NUMBERS... TLH 74 89 69 93 5623 PFN 74 87 74 90 5623 DHN 70 88 69 93 5311 ABY 70 87 69 92 5311 VLD 73 88 69 93 5512 .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. WOOL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2000 THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOR SHOWER CHANCES IN NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER NW WI...MAY SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THERE IS A WEAK THETA-E GRADIENT DEVELOPED BY THE RUC MODEL OVER FAR NRN MN AND W CENTRAL WI FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. FORECAST WILL LEAVE MENTION OF A SHOWER THIS EVENING...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED IN E CENTRAL MN AND W CENTRAL WI. LATER TONIGHT ACTIVITY IN NEB/SD SHOULD MOVE AS AN MCS INTO IA...MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SW MN TO MENTION A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT STORMS OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL. FURTHER OUT RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLOWLY INTO AREA. TRANSITION IS ENOUGH TO MENTION LATE DAY STORMS IN SRN ZONES FRI AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS GENERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY THE WARM UP CONTINUES. A BOUNDARY SETS UP ON SATURDAY IN CENTRAL MN...SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...SATURDAY NIGHT THE IS MCS POTENTIAL IN ND/NW MN THAT MAY AFFECT CENTRAL MN. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT mn WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 215 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2000 SMALL CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND NOT MUCH VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN WA HANDLED BEST ON RUC MODEL...SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHWEST MT INTO RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE THREAT OF CONVECTION. UPPER LOW WEST OF THE BC COAST SHIFTS ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO EASTERN MT. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO WESTERN MT BY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS LACKING IN MOISTURE SO WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEST CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE COUPLET WILL BE SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA ON FRIDAY. MAIN ISSUE TOMORROW WILL BE WINDS GENERATED BY SURFACE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 20-25KT RIDGETOP WINDS. FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS OVER REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH EVEN MORE INSTABILITY THEN...AFTERNOON WINDS REDEVELOP TOO. TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL BUT EXPECT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING NEXT TWO DAYS...MAINLY FROM CLOUD COVER. BOLDT EXTENDED...MODELS IN AGREEMENT SUGGESTING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A TROF DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. SOME CLEARING ON DAY 3...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 4 DUE TO CONTINUED UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. ON DAY 5...TROF MOVES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS COOLING TEMPS. STOLL mt