FXUS62 KILM 280641
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
240 AM EDT WED APR 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AS HIGH PRES BUILDS 
OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL YIELD 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SE FLOW RETURNS THU WITH HIGH CENTERED TO THE 
NE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AGAIN THU WITH AIR MASS REMAINING RELATIVELY 
DRY DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW. 

WEAK DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND STARTS 
MOVING NE. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FRI AND SAT AS GULF SYSTEM BEGINS 
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE SE US. PRECIP DEVELOPS SAT EVENING AS VORT 
MAX MOVES UP THE COAST. GOING WITH 30 POPS SAT NIGHT INCREASING TO 
40 ON SUN. COLD FRONT IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SAT HEADS E INTO THE 
CAROLINAS SUN AND MERGES WITH THE REMAINS OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE 
GULF. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SUN 
NIGHT AND MON. WILL EXTEND 40 POPS SUN NIGHT TO 12Z MON AND THEN 
CARRY 20 POPS FROM 12Z MON TO 00Z TUE. LATEST GFS STALLS THE FRONT 
OFF THE COAST MON WITH PRECIP CONTINUING THRU MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 
WILL WAIT TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS CONSISTENTLY BEFORE 
DECIDING TO EXTEND POPS INTO MON NIGHT AND TUE. 

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT 3 HOURLY PRES RISES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE SURGE HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS 
NOTED BY KLTX IMAGERY. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY INDICATES SPEEDS IN 
THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND 25 KNOTS...THOUGH THESE CONDITIONS 
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND MORE-SO A REFLECTION OF THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS. AS A RESULT ONLY PLAN ON HEADLINING EXERCISE 
CAUTION INSTEAD OF AN ADVISORY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURGE WILL 
BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS 
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
RIDGE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING 
IN ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS AS AN 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HELPS TO PINCH THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. 
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER...AND MAY NOT CLEAR THE 
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ON MON. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WILMINGTON     69  48  75  57  /  0   0   0   0
FLORENCE       71  46  77  56  /  0   0   0   0
LUMBERTON      69  44  77  56  /  0   0   0   0
MYRTLE BEACH   67  50  72  59  /  0   0   0   0

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC: TRL
MARINE: SRP