FXUS63 KPAH 280819
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BECOME ONE OF WHICH MODEL TO 
CHOOSE...WITH PERHAPS THE INCREASINGLY PREDOMINATING FACTOR IN THE 
DECISION BEING TO PICK THE ONE OR ONES WHOSE TRENDS ARE BEING 
FOLLOWED BY THE OTHERS. IN PARTICULAR WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE NEXT 
CHC OF PCPN...AFTER THE DRY/MODERATING NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THEN THE 
MODELS AGREE THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS TO ALLOW A DEEP/MOIST SWLY 
FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE TEMPS/TDS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT 
A DAILY CHC PCPN UNTIL THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF PASSES. THE 
QUESTION OF WHEN TO BEGIN THE CHC OF PCPN IS WHERE THE MODELS 
DIFFER...W/THE GFS HAVING BEEN THE MODEL PRODUCING THE EARLIEST CHC 
PCPN...PREVIOUSLY AS EARLY AS THU PM. HOWEVER...THE LAST COUPLE OF 
RUNS HAVE SEEN THE GFS CONTINUE A TREND OF BACKING OFF ON THIS INTRO 
OF PCPN...UNTIL NOW IT IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED W/THE SLOWER/DRIER 
ETA THAN IN ANY PREVIOUS RUN. AS A RESULT...WE WL BACK OFF ON THE 
INTRO OF POPS UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT...SWEEPING THEM EWARD FRI...AND 
THEN CONTINUING THEM THRU THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE UPPER TROF PASSES 
AND ENDS POPS SUN NIGHT. THIS IS A NICE COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT 
LEANS THE DIRECTION THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING...IE TOWARD THE 
SLOWER/DRIER ETA. WE WL LIKEWISE REFLECT THIS MODEL TREND SELECTION 
IN OUR MOS POPS PICKS...IE COMPROMISED/BUT LEANING TOWARD THE ETA 
MOS.

SIMILARLY W/TEMPS WE CHOOSE A LEAN TOWARD THE ETA...ALTHOUGH VERY 
NEAR TERM THE NGM MOS HAS DONE ADMIRABLY...SO SOME CONSIDERATION ITS 
DIRECTION IS WARRANTED TOO. THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT 
AND WL ACCEPT IT ALMOST IN ITS ENTIRETY...W/SOME MINOR TWEEKS ONLY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$