Business Formation, Growth, and Decline


NTIS order number:
PB85-173656
Price codes:
A02 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)
RS number: 54

Analysis of Small Business Payroll Data for 1979 and 1983

Joel Popkin
n.d. 15p. Contract awarded in FY 1984 to Joel Popkin &;Company, 1030 15th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005.

Small business payroll share was found by this study to be essentially unchanged between 1979 and 1983. Share of employment may have increased slightly. Of the 16 industries in which small business share of payroll increased, 11 were in manufacturing.

NTIS order number:
PB82-115981
Price codes:
A02 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)
RS number: 15

An Analysis of the Effect of Recessions on Small Business Output

Joel Popkin
1981. 16p. Contract awarded in FY 1980 to Joel Popkin &;Company, 1030 15th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005.

Industries were ranked in this study by their sensitivity to business cycles. From most sensitive to least sensitive they were: (1) manufacturing, (2) wholesale trade, (3) contract construction,(4) transportation and utilities, (5) retail trade, (6) services, (7) mining, and (8) finance, insurance, and real estate.

NTIS order number:
Not available from NTIS;
see note at end of entry.
RS number: 25

Barriers to Corporate Growth

Barry Baysinger, Roger E. Meiners, and Carol P. Zeithame 1985. Contract awarded in FY 1979 to Texas A&M;University, College Station, TX 77843.

Completed as part of an interagency agreement with the Federal Trade Commission, this report found that growth was linked to profitability, and that market share was positively related to return on investment. Growth should therefore be a goal of all firms, particularly small ones. The availability of capital was an important issue when overcoming other barriers to growth.

Published in 1985 by Lexington Books, an imprint of D.C. Heath and Co., 125 Spring Street, Lexington, MA 02173. ISBN 0-669-04323-0.
(Title now out of print.)

NTIS order number:
PB92-160134
Price codes:
A05 (Paper)
A02 (Microfiche)
RS number: 122

Business Survival Rates by Age Cohort of Business

Joel Popkin and Co. and Bruce A. Kirchhoff 1991. 98p. Contract awarded in IFY 1989 to Joel Popkin and Company, 1101 Vermont Avenue NW, #201, Washington, DC 20005.

The study provides a descriptive overview of patterns in business survival rates and clarifies some of the factors influencing business survival rates. The more employees a business has, the more likely it will be to survive over some finite time interval.  Survival rates do not vary appreciably with geographic location. Regression analyses failed to identify any link between a business' industry and its survival prospects.

NTIS order number:
PB90-269226
Price codes:
A06 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)
RS number: 102

Business Volatility and Economic Growth

Wilbur R. Maki and Paul D.Reynolds 1990. 115p. Contract awarded in FY 1988 to Regional EconomicDevelopment Associates, Inc., Minneapolis, MN 55436.

Using data from the SBA's Small Business Data Base, this study found that between 1976 and 1984 almost one in five business
establishments was either created or closed each year; this ratio rose to one in four by the 1984-1986 period. Small firm volatility contributed to more than half of U.S. gains and losses in business jobs. Independent, mostly small firms made up about 80 percent of establishments in this study; they provided about 60 percent of all jobs. Births and expansions of independent firms accounted for 54 percent of all job growth, while business deaths and contractions accounted for 55 percent of job losses.

NTIS order number:
PB81-240749
Price codes:
A04 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)

Corporate Evolution: A Micro-Based Analysis

David L. Birch and Susan MacCracken
1981. 69p. Contract awarded in IFY 1980 to the MIT Program on Neighborhood and Social Change, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, #R-E19,
Cambridge, MA 02139.

The purpose of this study was to determine the growth of businesses at different stages of their evolution and how this process was affected by business cycles and acquisition of one firm by another.  It traced the history of sales and employment over three different time periods (spanning the seven years between 1969 and 1976) for firms of different size, growth rate, industry, corporate affiliation, age, and location. Those firms with under 20 employees and experiencing no growth in employment had the highest chance of dying.

NTIS order number:
PB82-213141
Price codes:
A07 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)

Critical Lifetime Experiences of Entrepreneurs: A Preliminary Analysis

Calvin A. Kent, Donald L. Sexton, and Sharon Conrad 1981. 141 p. Contract awarded in FY 1980 to Venture Assistance, Inc., 10013 Shadowcrest, Waco, TX 76710.

Why do some people become entrepreneurs? With the increasing interest in the process of entrepreneurship and a realization that its perpetuation is important for the economic development of the nation, this study looked for "critical lifetime experiences"--both within and without the educational setting--that had any significant influence on an individual's decision to own and operate a business.

NTIS order number:
PB82-224072
Price codes:
A07 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)

The Determinants of the Geographical Distribution of the Formation of New and Small Technology-Based Firms

Stephen G. Graham
1982. 144p. Contract awarded in IFY 1980 to Stephen G. Graham, 249 Mill Street, Big Rapids, MI 49307.

This study identifies the factors or conditions which explain the pronounced variation in the distribution among geographical subdivisions of the United States of the formation of new and small technology-based firms. In addition, the study attempts to develop the policy implications of these factors for guiding efforts to stimulate the economic development of individual states and their geographical subdivisions.

NTIS order number:
PB86-158953
Price codes:
A04 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)
RS number: 41

Economic Signals of Small Business Activity

Robert B. Archibald
1985. 58p. Contract awarded in FY 1983 to the College of William and Mary, Department of Economics, Williamsburg, VA 23185

The most important indicator of changes in small business income is changes in employment in small-business-dominated industries. Small business income typically declines before the general economy, but recovers simultaneously with it.

NTIS order number:
PB81-207870
Price codes:
A02 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)

The Effects of Changes in the Business Cycle on Small Firms

Meir Tamari
1981. 23p. Contract awarded in FY 1981 to Meir Tamari, Monsey, NY 10952.

Quarterly percentage changes in sales, profits, and liabilities for three recession periods (1958-1959, 1969-1970, and 1973-1975) were examined to test the hypothesis that small firms are affected more adversely than large firms during periods of recession.

NTIS order number:
PB82-165473
Price codes:
A09 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)
RS number: 14

Effects of Inflation on Small Business

Edward J. Honton, Mark Berger, Belton Fleisher, and Donald Parsons
1981. 187p. Contract awarded in FY 1980 to Battelle Columbus Division, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201.

Smaller manufacturing firms show a greater ease of substitution than large manufacturing firms, particularly in response to rising energy costs. Larger firms showed greater ease of substitution in other industries. No overall trend to concentration was found in the period 1972-1977.

NTIS order number:
PB85-180701
Price codes:
A07 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)
RS number: 77

Formation and Growth in High Technology Businesses: A Regional Assessment

C. Armington and Marjorie Odle
1983. 132p. Contract awarded in FY 1979 to The Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusets Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036.

Half of all high technology firms employ fewer than 20 persons, but 90 percent of employment in high technology is in firms with over 100 employees. The geographic distribution of high technology employment matches employment in all industries, with over half in branches.

NTIS order number:
PB92-130095
Price codes:
A16 (Paper)
A03 (Microfiche)
RS number: 118

Industry Dynamics and Small Firms in the United States

David S. Evans
1991. 375p. Contract awarded in FY 1988 to CERA Economic Consultants, Inc., P.O. Box 159, Old Greenwich, CT 06870.

This study examines the reversal of the long-term decline in the importance of small manufacturing firms in the 1970s. Five industries were chosen for investigation: commercial printing, cut boot and shoe stock, inorganic pigments, surgical appliances and supplies, and wines. Technological innovations have reduced the costs of entering an industry and the minimum efficient firm size-thereby increasing opportunities for small firms in four of the five industries. Only in the cut boot industry has technological change worked to small firms' disadvantage.

NTIS order number:
PB86-247160
Price codes:
A04 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)

Intra-industry Indicators of Small Business Performance

Joel Popkin
1986. 73p. Contract awarded in FY 1984 to Joel Popkin &;Company, 1030 15th Street NW, Washington, DC 20006.

The purpose of this study was to develop indicators of the state of small business in major industries. Few indicators tracked well against measures of gross product originating. Development of a new series specific to small business was recommended.

NTIS order number:
PB87-115226
Price codes:
A03 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)

New Business Starts and Economic Activity: An Empirical Investigation

Robert Smiley and Richard Hig
1986. 36p. Contract awarded in FY 1985 to Robert Smiley & Associates, 16 Hunters Lane, Ithaca, NY 14882.

This project attempts to further develop and test a model of the factors affecting new business starts. The product is an analysis of the factors influencing new business starts in different industries, across time, in the United States over the period 1978 to 1984.

NTIS order number:
PB87-115242
Price codes:
A04 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)

A New Perspective on Business Ownership

Sheldon Haber
1985. 65p. Contract awarded in FY 1984 to Simon and Company, 8808 Stonehaven Court, Potomac, MD 20854.

After years of decline in the postwar era, the number of self- employed workers began to grow in the mid-1970s and early 1980s. Using data from the May-March 1979 and May-March 1983 Current Population Surveys, this report examines trends in self-employment and the characteristics of the entrepreneurial class in nonagri-cultural industries over this time period.

NTIS order number:
PB91-124149
Price codes:
A03 (Paper)
A01 (Microfiche)
RS number: 112

Returns to Scale in Small and Large U.S. Manufacturing Establishments

Sang V. Nguyen and Arnold P. Reznek 1990.[41]p. Completed under
an interagency agreement with the Center for Economic Studies, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC.

The differences in production technologies between small and large manufacturing firms lie at the core of differences in their ability to compete. This pilot econometric investigation documented these differences in four manufacturing groups: SIC 2355 (women's, misses' and juniors' dresses); SIC 2711 (newspapers); SIC 3573 (electronic computing equipment); and SIC 3662 (radio and television transmitting, signaling, and detectionequipment).

This study was also published in 1990 by the Bureau of the
Census' Center for Economic Studies as Discussion Paper no. 90-11.



*Verified as Current: QTR3 2002