FXUS04 KWBC 171841 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 241 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUL 18/0000 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...UPR OH RVR VLY INTO THE MID ATLC STATES... AMPLIFICATION TO THE ERN U.S. TROF THIS PD WL LEAD TO ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STG MID LVL CLOSED CNTR/STG OPEN WV OVR THE UPR OH VLY BY SUN AFTN..WHICH SHLD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY RNFL/CNVCTN MUCH OF THE UPR OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. MDLS HAVE ONLY SOME VRY SLGT DIFFS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYS..SO CONFIDENCE IS HI THAT THIS WL BE A SIGNIFICANT CNVCTV EVENT. STG MID LVL DYNAMICS/HGT FALLS WL SUPPORT THE HVY RNFL IN THE COMMA HEAD ACRS THE UPR OH VLY..WHILE FARTHER TO THE S AND E SOME HGT FALLS ALG WITH A MODEST LOW LVL WAA PATN/INFLO OF ATLC MSTR SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY RAINS/CNVCTN FM THE DELMARVA NNEWD INTO NJ..PA AND INTO SERN NY STATE/WRN L.I. GFS QPF LOOKS TOO LGT IN THE UPR OH VLY..AND ALSO ALG THE MID ATLC CST..SO LEANED MORE TWDS THE ETA QPF SOLN HERE. ...GULF CST STATES... VRY MOIST WLY FLO ACRS THE SRN GULF CST REGION INTO THE FL PENIN..AHD OF THE CDFNT TO THE N..WL SUPPORT A SWATH OF HVY CNVCTN ALG THE IMMEDIATE GULF CST REGION AND INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FL PENIN THIS PD..WITH ACTIVITY AIDED BY S/WVS ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ERN U.S. H5 TROF. GRIDDED DATA FM BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SHOWS UP TO 30KTS OF WLY LLJ INTO THE NRN/PTNS OF THE CNTRL FL PENIN..BRINGING IN PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. WITH THIS INFLO/PW AVBL..SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THE MDL QPFS SHOWING 1-2+ INCH RNFL AMTS HERE..SO MANUAL QPF FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY. ...WRN STATES... NOT A LOT OF CHG IN THE SYNOPTIC PATN OUT W..WITH ONLY A VRY SLGT RETROGRESSION NOTED TO THE UPR LVL HI OVR THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN GT BASIN THIS PD. S/WV ENERGY NOW IN NV WL ROTATE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE HI INTO THE CNTRL/NRN GT BASIN SAT NGT/SUN MRNG..TRIGGERING MORE ORGANIZED AND LCLY HVY CNVCTN FM NRN NV INTO ID AND WRN MT..WHILE ANOTHER S/WV IN CO ATTM SHLD DROP SEWD ON FNT SIDE OF THE RDG INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS. THIS S/WV ALG WITH MOIST SELY FLO SHLD BE ENUF TO PRODUCE SWATH OF MDT TO LCLY HVY CNVCTN FM SERN CO/NERN NM SEWD INTO THE TX PNHNDL/WRN TX. ETA AND GFS QPFS WERE SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED IN THE CO/NM/TX REGION..WITH THE GFS LOOKING A LTL TOO HVY WITH ITS QPF IN ID WHILE THE ETA LOOKED UNDERDONE HERE. NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT AREA... SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN GT BASIN UPR HI..ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF SOME DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE..SHLD RESULT IN LESS CNVCTN THAN PAST FEW DAYS OVR THE SWRN STATES..AND EVEN ONLY SOME MAINLY LT AFTN/EVE CNVCTN WITH GENLY LGT TO LCLY MDT RNFL AMTS HIER ELEVS OF OLD MEXICO. TERRY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 19/00Z 0.01 224067 238075 250083 265094 277102 294112 301115 309117 315118 319117 324117 328119 334124 337126 342128 348127 355129 362135 369141 374147 375151 374157 370168 369178 369183 371188 378196 386201 395204 404205 416205 426206 432208 440218 449222 455223 459223 468221 477221 485226 490235 493239 495245 494254 490261 490267 491271 496282 499286 503289 509290 512290 514286 516284 524261 521257 517253 513249 510244 508239 506234 504228 502220 502215 503209 507205 513205 516207 518210 520214 523217 526219 528223 531225 534225 536221 539207 537195 535183 531175 528169 522160 514153 506147 503145 500141 495135 490128 485121 479106 476101 474097 469095 463093 444089 435088 428090 425096 423097 421097 418092 415087 418067 417060 415053 412050 409049 397042 394039 392039 386034 383028 382025 381018 379014 375006 369000 364999 359999 351998 329995 325995 321993 315987 311982 307975 304967 306961 309958 314954 317948 320940 322931 324912 326893 327870 330862 334856 337852 341849 345847 350847 358847 366849 373850 377849 380847 386843 389845 392849 397852 402858 410861 415860 420856 423853 427848 429843 431837 439820 448803 455787 463770 470751 472742 474736 474729 471720 465711 456708 451707 447709 438712 430713 415709 408708 400709 391711 384714 370720 354726 344730 335736 325743 316751 304764 292774 278781 259788 251793 246797 242801 238808 237814 239824 245841 256879 270927 271929 285982 297002 316028 328040 333044 338048 341051 344059 347072 347075 345077 339077 335075 332075 329078 325082 321082 314081 305078 289073 274066 269062 264058 255051 250046 243042 228031 0.01 539933 540929 539924 537915 534905 532901 529897 522890 518887 516886 509885 498889 490893 481897 475903 468910 463916 460920 459924 459928 462933 465936 468938 472938 481940 498940 514945 522947 529948 534945 536942 539933 0.01 488192 489188 488185 486179 483178 477175 471174 467174 463178 461182 462186 464193 466196 472198 478199 481199 485196 488192 0.25 226051 229059 232063 241070 258082 286096 292096 293093 293090 292087 279077 255062 242051 237047 228046 0.25 483143 485138 483135 480131 474129 472127 463119 461117 455114 448113 444115 440120 434128 428132 421131 419130 415130 412133 410140 409146 408152 412155 419162 428167 445176 448177 451176 454173 459164 465156 471149 474151 477149 480146 483143 0.25 437771 436764 433758 428748 417731 412725 406723 398724 391727 356740 351743 343747 335752 329757 281801 269812 264817 260824 261833 262840 265857 270879 274899 278917 283934 287942 291945 295946 299945 303943 307938 309930 309922 310905 311885 312868 315854 318838 321831 324823 332809 338802 344798 351796 357797 365796 373797 380800 385805 389815 392824 396836 400843 406847 411847 415845 420838 423831 435799 437792 438784 437771 0.25 402068 400062 396057 389051 382043 376036 369026 362019 355013 348009 337006 325008 322010 324015 329023 342038 349046 354054 361062 368068 372073 374078 375083 378087 381088 385087 388084 397079 401072 402068 0.50 430771 425757 419746 412735 404730 399730 392732 385741 379745 376749 373760 371766 369771 369775 371782 374787 378790 385795 389800 393806 395813 397821 399830 402837 404840 410842 413841 416837 419832 423821 426810 429798 432787 432779 431772 430771 0.50 461135 460129 454127 451127 449129 445132 443137 441141 437144 434148 433152 434156 438160 440162 446165 451163 452159 454151 455143 457139 461135 0.50 336781 333776 330773 327773 322775 317780 309786 302791 296796 285807 273819 269824 267831 267840 269851 272867 274879 276890 281909 284918 286923 288926 291927 296927 298929 302929 304925 304920 304911 304893 305883 306875 307867 309859 313842 316828 322811 325805 328798 334789 336781 0.50 371047 370039 369035 363028 357021 350016 345015 339014 334018 334020 337024 340028 346034 352040 358046 365051 369050 371047 0.50 276081 269077 257069 254069 255074 259078 279089 283088 282086 276081 0.50 236060 242067 246068 245063 240057 239056 238054 237053 234052 233054 234057 234058 236060 1.00 416824 416809 416797 418788 419777 418770 416763 413755 411746 406742 400741 396745 395751 395757 394763 390772 388777 392782 396785 401792 404800 404806 404812 405823 407829 410831 413831 415828 416824 1.00 313813 310807 308805 305805 301807 290817 284823 279830 277836 277845 279855 280865 280873 282883 284889 286894 288896 293896 295893 296887 298879 300865 306850 309834 312825 313816 313813 1.50 305819 304816 302816 298819 292822 288826 285831 284838 285850 286863 287875 290883 292878 294867 298856 301846 304836 306823 305819 $$