AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
950 AM EST SUN NOV 28 1999
MORNING SAT PIX SHOW CLDS FROM LK OT MOVING THRU THE MOHAWK VALLEY
CHANNEL INTO THE BERKS...OCNLY REACHING CT VALLEY. CLD PATCHES
OVER GREEN MTNS ALSO MOVING ACRS SW NH BUT SO FAR DRYING UP AS THEY
DO SO. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT NOTHING
INTO NEW ENGLAND.
MORNING RAOBS SHOW MOIST LOW LVL CONDITIONS AT ALY...THANKS TO THE
LK OT FLOW...AND DRY LOW LVL CONDITIONS AT OKX AND GYX WITH RH/S
AT 45% AND 60% RESPECTIVELY. FULL SUN POTL BRINGS TEMPS ARND 50
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. PROFILES ARE STABLE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS
ARND 16 AT ALY/OKX/GYX AND 18 AT CHH...DEFINING A MINIMA OF VT/MAXIMA
OF STABILITY CENTERED OVER THE F/A. 06Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW GOOD
SUBSIDENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A GENERAL CYC FLOW ALOFT.
WITH CYC FLOW ALOFT IT IS ALWAYS TEMPTING TO GO STRONG ON DIURNAL
SC. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR AT LOW LVLS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF JUICE
TO WORK WITH HERE IN SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
FIGHTING ANY LIFT FROM DIURNAL HEATING. BEST CHC WOULD BE IN SW
NH/WRN MASS WHERE SPILLAGE FROM NYS WOULD HELP...BUT EVEN THERE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR. SO WHILE WE WILL GET DECENT
DIURNAL LOW LVL MIXING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WINDS THIS AFTN...WL
GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST OF SKY COVER. WL GO MO SUNNY S AND
E...PTLY SUNNY N AND W. WL GO BREEZY MOST ZONES...BUT WINDY ON CAPE
COD. LOOK FOR MAXT RANGE OF 45-55 ACRS REGION AS PER FULL SUN TEMPS.
MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS ARND 20 AT 013 AND IOS...20G30 AT ACK...ARND
30 AT BUZ. WL UP THE SEAS IN THE SOUNDS TO 4-8 FT. CONT SCA.
BOX...SCA.
WTB
FXUS61 KBOX 281226 COR ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
610 PM EST SUN NOV 28 1999
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT 88D DATA AND
SPOTTER REPORTS. APX 88D SHOWING AN AREA OF 28 DBZ RETURNS MOVING
ACROSS EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES... MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY. A SNOW SPOTTER IN SOUTHERN EMMET COUNTY REPORTED
SNOWFALL HAD BECOME HEAVIER WITH LARGER FLAKES. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF 300-310 AND THE RUC TIME SECTION FOR PLN AREA
SHOWING MOISTURE STARTING TO EXTEND UP INTO AN AIRMASS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -10C AND -12C.
EXPECT OVERALL WIND FLOW TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH LATER THIS
EVENING AND DIMINISH THE LAKE GENERATED SNOW BANDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
EFFECTING THE STRAITS. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD
MENTION OF OCCASIONAL EVENING SNOWS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE STRAITS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ008
SWR
FXUS63 KAPX 282315 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
610 PM EST SUN NOV 28 1999
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT 88D DATA AND
SPOTTER REPORTS. APX 88D SHOWING AN AREA OF +28 DBZ RETURNS MOVING
ACROSS EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES... MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY. A SNOW SPOTTER IN SOUTHERN EMMET COUNTY REPORTED
SNOWFALL HAD BECOME HEAVIER WITH LARGER FLAKES. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF 300-310 WITH THE RUC TIME SECTION
FOR PLN AREA SHOWING MOISTURE STARTING TO EXTEND UP INTO AN AIRMASS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -10C AND -12C.
EXPECT OVERALL WIND FLOW TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH LATER THIS
EVENING AND DIMINISH THE LAKE GENERATED SNOW BANDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
EFFECTING THE STRAITS. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD
MENTION OF OCCASIONAL EVENING SNOWS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE STRAITS
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KAPX 282041 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1050 AM EST SUN NOV 28 1999
...LAKE SNOW CONT TO BE MAIN CONCERN...
SYNOPSIS...A CAN SFC RIDGE SLIDING INTO NRN MS VALLEY THIS AM WILL
KEEP A STRONG NW FLOW ACRS UP. A H50 RIDGE CONT TO BUILD OVR NRN
ROCKIES. A SFC TROF AND AN ASSOC SHRTWV WILL SLIDE DN THE E SIDE OF
RIDGE INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY NOON.
GOES IR VERIFIES THE Q-VECTOR CNVG OVR LAKE NIPGON AREAS THIS AM
WITH THE HVIEST CLDS CVR. MESOETA SHOWING THIS BEST LLVL CNVRG TO
SETTLE OVR THE CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR BY NOON. AT THE SAME TIME SFC
TROF AND THE SHRTWV WILL TRAVERSE THE NRN LAKE. LATEST RUC DATA
SUPPORTS THIS ALSO. 12Z INL RAOB WAS 1C WRMR THAN MDLS FCSTD. THIS
WOULD INDICT A LTL DELAY IN THE ON SET OF THE LES. SN HAS STARTED IN
CMX AND KMQT 88D SHOW SCT PATCHES OF SNOW OVR NRN UP.
WAITING FOR NEW MDLS TO DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THEY HANDLE THE SLIGHTLY WRMR TEMPS
AT INL.
.MQT...NONE.
DLG
FXUS63 KAPX 281611 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 PM CST SUN NOV 28 1999
THE MAIN FCST PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE AMT OF CLDS AND TEMPS.
IN THE OUT PERIODS THERE WNDS WL BE A FCST PROBLEM. AREA WL BE IN
THE TRANSITION FM NW FLOW REGIME...WITH WK SHRT WVS MOVG SEWD ACRS
THE AREA...TO UPR RDGG. SFC HIGH PRES SKIMS BY AREA MOVG SEWD
PRIMARILLY ACRS THE UPR GRTLKS RGN. LGT AND VARIABLE WNDS WL OCR
OVR THE FCST AREA UNTIL MIDDAY TMW.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TNGT...MAIN PROBLEM IS THE LOW CLDS THAT HAVE
PERSISTED ALL DAY ACRS MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN NEBRASKA. SOME OF THE
LOW CLDS HAVE ADVCTD INTO THE WRN PTNS OF THE CWA. RUC AND ETA SEEM
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLDS. CLDS MAY SPREAD ACRS THE NERN
NEBRASKA TNGT AND CONTG INTO MON MIDDAY. HWVR..LTST STLT IMAGERY
DOES INDC SOME EROSION ON THE NRN END OF THE CLD DECK AS DRIER NWRLY
FLO AROUND H85 PREDOMINATES. CLDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE OLU AREA
AS WELL AND MAY AFFECT TQE AND EVEN OMA AREA BY TNGT. SOME BREAKUP
MAY OCR TMW AFTN AS 850 FLO INCRS AND MORE MIXING OCRS. HWVR...WL
STILL TEND TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY NERN AND E CNTRL ZONES AND LV SERN
ZONES PARTLY CLDY.
AS FAR AS HI TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WL TRIM TEMPS A BIT IN THE NE
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. IN THE SE...TEMPS SHUD REACH AROUND 50 ON
MON.
ON TUES...WRM ADVCTN TAKES PLACE ACRS THE AREA. BY TUES NGT...STG
LO LVL WRM ADVCTN TAKES PLACE IN THE E WITH SOME FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING INDCG THAT PERHAPS SOME PRECIP MIGHT TAKE PLACE LATE TUES
NGT. WL NOT MENTION ANY CHC OF PRECIP IN TUES FCST AS THIS IS STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN FCST PD.
.OMA...NONE
SMITH
FXUS63 KLBF 281756 ne
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1110 AM CST SAT NOV 27 1999
STRATO-CU DECK IS SLOWLY EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH...BUT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE HAS BEEN BREAKING UP SOME SINCE 16Z. THE 15Z RUC AND THE 12Z
ETA DO NOT HINT AT ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE THIS DECK TO ERODE.
THE LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO THE BOTTOM OF CLOUDS IS PROGGED TO SEE
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ESSENTIALLY NO WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND
THIS LAYER ALSO HAS AN EAST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE INVERSION LAYER
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE IS PROGGED TO EXPERIENCE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY...WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE STRATUS INVERSION.
ETA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CHANGE LITTLE...EVEN INTO TONIGHT.
THE FWC MOS GUIDANCE TRIES TO CLEAR OUT GRI BY 21Z...BUT THINK THIS
IS WAY TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN ABOVE REASONING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND KEPT THE CLOUDS IN THIS AFTERNOON.
.GID...NONE.
NIETFELD
FXUS63 KOAX 280841 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
940 PM EST SUN NOV 28 1999
00Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC FRONT BISECTING CWA. DWPTS SLOWLY DROPPING N
OF THE FRONT BUT RISING A LITTLE IN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT. THIS IMPLIES THAT FORECAST MINS MIGHT BE LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE...ESPECIALLY AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH WEAK
RIPPLES IN THE H5 FLOW ATTM.
HOWEVER...RUC HAS H5 MOIST AXIS SE OF MOST OF THE CWA BY 09Z...WHICH
WOULD IMPLY A FEW HOURS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...ONLY PLAN
TO CHANGE CLOUD WORDING ATTM. WL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR TOWARD MORNING ALL ZONES.
.GSP...NONE.
MCAVOY
FXUS62 KCHS 290209 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
250 PM CST SUN NOV 28 1999
20Z SFC ANAL SHOWS RIDGE ALLIGNED FROM N-CNTL ND TO SE MN AND HIGH
CENTER STRENGTHENING ABOUT 6 MB OVER LAST 12 HOURS. LOOP SHOWS
STEADILY DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CWA. OVERLAY OF RUC 500 MB ON WV
LOOP SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND H5 HTS RISING OVER
SD...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MODEL TRENDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW
LEVEL MSTR AS DEPICTED BY ETA...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER PSBL FOG. HOWEVER...ETA SFC DEW
POINT FCST SHOWS AREA OF LOWER MOISTURE MOVING SE INTO CWA
TONIGHT...AND FWC/LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES TREND FOR DECREASING
DEW POINTS...SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE THIS
CST PERIOD IS STRENGTH OF SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT MON AND MON
NIGHT...AND RESULTANT WIND SPEEDS. MODELS SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
INCREASING THE SFC PRESSURE GREADIENT DURING THE AFTN ON MON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND TIMING.
AVN AND NGM IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT ON SFC PRESSURE FCSTS...BUT FEEL
THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO THE WEST IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE
FAIRLY WEAK S/W IN THE U/L FLOW. ETA SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE
MORE REASONABLY. THEREFORE...FOLLOWED ETA MOST CLOSELY THIS FCST
PERIOD. BASED ON 925 AND 850 WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS...AND
GOOD MIXINING EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUN FOR MONDAY...INDICATED
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MON AFTN. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
EASTERN COUNTIES EVEN AFTER SUNSET AS STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PULL VERY MILD AIR NORTH INTO CNTL-NE SD PUSHING TEMPS WELL
ABOVE AVG FOR LATE NOV. 850 TEMP AND WINDS SHOWS GOOD WAA BEGINNING
AROUND 12Z MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR MON
AND TUE ABOVE GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH FAN...DUE TO EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF WAA.
...EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MODELS REALLY HAVEN'T DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS RUN. NICE 5H RIDGE POPS
UP OVER WESTERN US..THEN MOVES EAST DURING FIRST PART OF WEEK. THERE
ARE NOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE 5H TROF
COMING IN. PREVIOUS RUN HAD THE ENERGY SPLITTING...WITH THE MAJORITY
SLIDING WELL SOUTH OF AREA. LATEST RUN ON THE MRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF...
ALTHO STILL SPLITTING ENERGY...KEEPS THE SOUTHERN STEAM VORT MAX A
BIT FURTHER NORTH. QUESTION IS GOING TO BE TIMING OF CAA BACK INTO
THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT CAA WILL SLIDE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 18Z
WED...BUT NOT REACHING THE KATY AREA UNTIL 00-06Z THURSDAY. MRF
REALLY DROPS 850MB TEMPS OFF DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL UNDERCUT
FMR TEMPS A BIT FOR WED ALL AREAS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALLY
DOESN'T ADVECT INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON WED...SO
WILL PUSH PCPN OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY
BE REACHED EARLY ON...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING
DAY. ON THURSDAY...SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
DRYING OUT BY 18Z. WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW SINCE
TIMING ISNT ALL THAT CERTAIN YET. PREFER THE CURRENT TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH UNDERCUTS GUIDANCE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES. FRIDAY HOLDS
ANOTHER INTERESTING FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF PAC NW. WAA RETURNS BACK TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. UKMO MODEL DROPS THIS SYSTEM REALLY FAR TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE MRF/ECMWF TAKES IN MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH
ND. ALTHO WAA IS TAKING PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT THE LO-LVL COLD AIR
IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. THIS LOW SWINGS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE ANY PCPN WOULD
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE REALLY UNSURE ABOUT
LOCATION AND TIMING...WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF FCST FRIDAY AND SEE HOW
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
.ABR...NONE.
LORENS/HINTZ
FXUS63 KUNR 281642 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1022 AM CST SUN NOV 28 1999
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES AT THIS TIME. ONLY CONCERN IS
CLOUD COVER AS PATCHES OF AC SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN ND.
LATEST RUC FORECAST KEEPS AREAS OF 70-80 PCT RH MOVING OVER CWA
THROUGH 18Z...WITH A DECREASE IN RH BY 21Z. THIS WOULD LEAD ME
TO THINK THAT THE MOCLDY BECMG PTCLDY FCST GOING FOR MOST ZONES
WOULD PAN OUT...AND WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR NOW. DESPITE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS ARE RISING NICELY...AND FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AND FAIRLY LIGHT AS RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS CWA.
.FSD...NONE
HAMEN
FXUS63 KABR 281530 sd
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 28 1999
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE LOW CLOUDS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...CONCERN THIS
AFTN IS WITH HIGH TEMPS. COLD AIR WEDGED INTO NE ZNS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT HEATING THERE. 12Z DDC SOUNDING ONLY SUPPORTED UPPER 50S.
WARMER READINGS LIKELY IN SRN ZNS WHERE AMA RAOB SUGGESTED
LOWER/MID 60S POSSIBLE. 15Z RUC VEERS WINDS TO E ACROSS WRN ZNS
THIS AFTN WITH MORE NRLY DIRECTION IN E BUT SPEEDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.
OROGRAPHIC INDUCED HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
ACROSS ERN NM HOWEVER SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS NRN ZNS THAN YDAY GIVEN
DRYING APPEARANCE ON WATER VAPOR LOOP.
.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
COBB
FXUS64 KFWD 281637 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1035 AM CST SUN NOV 28 1999
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY NEAR A PARIS-DALLAS-JUNCTION LINE. WE PREFER
TO PUT THE LEADING EDGE NEAR THE 50 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM LINE.
EXPECT SLOW MOVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING RIDGING
ALOFT NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT IT WILL PUSH THROUGH AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND MONDAY BUT GENERALLY DRY.
EXTENDED FORECAST STILL SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT MRF DOES NOT SUGGEST AS GREAT A
CHANCE OF RAIN AS YESTERDAYS RUN. BEST GUESS IS THE THERE WILL BE
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MORE
LIKELY TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS.
AVIATION...DFW SURFACE WIND HAS BECOME WESTERLY AT 16Z. WE EXPECT A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z...BUT WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN
10-12 KNOTS. NEW MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW DFW AREA FOR MONDAY MORNING. CWSU RUC FORECASTS WOULD IMPLY
POSSIBILITY OF IFR WEATHER...BUT THE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY MAKES ME
THINK THAT IT WILL BE MORE LIKE MVFR...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. WE WILL
PROBABLY PUT A SCT VRBL BKN LYR AROUND 1500 FEET 12Z-16Z WITH THE
18Z TAFS. 03
.FTW...NONE.
FXUS64 KCRP 281553 tx
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 AM CST SUN NOV 28 1999
STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE TO N WILL FORCE A CD FNT S ACROSS THE CWA
LATE TNGT AND MON. ETA X-SCTNS REVEAL SOME LLVL MSTR TDY ACROSS E
CWA THEN INCRSG TNGT/MON WITH WK POS OMEGA. ALSO DECENT SFC
FRONTOGENESIS LATE TNGT/MON WITH WK MSTR CONVG AND WK LLVL VOT ADVECTION
ON MON. NGM X-SCTNS SHOWS LESS LLVL MSTR TDY BUT QUITE SIMILAR
THEREAFTER. AVN X-SCTNS INDICATE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TRENDS BUT LESS
MSTR. NGM/AVN INDICATE SOME DIV Q/Q VECTOR CONVG IN 1000-850MB LYR.
POINT SOUNDINGS AND SFC DWPT DEP/SFC COND PRES DEF FROM MESOETA/RUC
SUGGESTS AREAS OF DENSE MORNING FG E AND PTCHY W TDY AND MON.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ACTUALLY REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AND
RELATIVELY HIGH THRU MON. THUS TDY MS/SY...TNGT CLR THEN LOW CLDS/FG
WHICH WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU MON AM THEN BECMG PC MON AFTN.
1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM ETA/AVN SEEMS REASONABLE AS NGM APPEARS
TOO WARM. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AND REASONABLE SO WILL
GNRLY FOLLOW WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. NO FLAGS FOR THE
MARINE WATERS AS SSE FLOW BECOMES NNE ON MON. LAND/WATER WND NO MORE
THAN 15KTS AND GUSTY MON AFTN. STRONG WAA AND ONSHORE FLOW SLATED
FOR WED/THU WITH ANOTHER CD FNTL PASSAGE DURING THU AFTN/EVE. CANNOT
FIND ANY PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT PCPN EXCEPT PSBLY SLGT CHC NE CWA.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP UB 079/055/075/052 071 00-
VCT UB 080/051/072/049 070 00-
LRD UB 082/055/076/055 073 00-
.CRP...NONE.
(SYN)...85/BB
(MESO)...87/WC
FXUS64 KHGX 280858 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1115 PM EST SUN NOV 28 1999
APX 88D SHOWING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH AN AREA OF +28 DBZ NOTED BETWEEN ST IGNACE AND BREVORT.
SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY SHOW THAT AN
AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER THE COUNTY ALREADY THIS
EVENING WITH A MAX REPORT OF 7 INCHES NEAR ENGADINE. THIS OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS DUE TO THE COMBINED AFFECTS OF THE INSTABILITY OVER
THE WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG A LAKE
INDUCED TROUGH MOVING OVER EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. APX 88D ALSO SHOWING A
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN STRAITS AREA FROM THE BRIDGE
SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND DRUMMOND ISLAND. THIS BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS DUE TO OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE SUPERIOR
MODIFICATION AND LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE STRAITS. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THEREFORE
THE CHANCE FOR ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.
THE LATEST ETA AND RUC TIME SECTIONS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOW
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) EXTENDING UP FROM
THE SURFACE THROUGH 800 MB. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS THIS
MOISTURE WILL ENCOUNTER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10C AND -12C WHICH IS A
GOOD RANGE FOR MAX ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. DELTA T'S WILL BE AROUND 17C FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 320-330. SOME
ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SINKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE STRAITS INTO NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS TO BE GREATER THAN 5000 FEET FOR
NORTHWEST LOWER... WHEN COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DELTA T'S
AROUND 17C... WOULD SUGGEST 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BY DAWN MONDAY FOR
TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THE BEST TIME FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL BE BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z.
FOR EAST UPPER...DELTA T'S WILL BE GREATER THAN 17C WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT... EXTENDING INTO MID LEVELS. WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WILL BE FROM 330... WHICH WOULD EFFECT
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. LAKE
EFFECT CHECK LIST SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY FOR EAST UPPER... TO COMBINE WITH THE ALREADY AVERAGE OF 3
TO 4... FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES TOTAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP EAST UPPER IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ANTRIM...CHARLEVOIX
...OTSEGO...KALKASKA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MIZ008-015.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT...MIZ019-021-022-027-028.
SWR
FXUS63 KDTX 290421 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1105 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS MAIN CONCERN.
LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AROUND 340 DEGREES. 4
MAIN BANDS EVIDENT ON 88-D NOW ORIENTED N-S... WITH THE DOMINANT
BANDS OVER EASTERN MARQUETTE/WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES AND OVER EASTERN
ALGER COUNTY. SCATTERED AREAS OF >28DBZ RETURNS WITHIN THESE BANDS.
VWP SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND 9K FEET...LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...
BUT STILL GOOD FOR MOD/HVY SNOW.
ONE SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF FA PER WV IMAGERY AND RUC
ANALYSIS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHING
SOUTHWARD IN N FLOW. THIS MAY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE LES EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WEST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS N-S AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LAKE
ENHANCED SFC TROF A LITTLE LESS EVIDENT THAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RUC INITIALIZED SFC FEATURES AND 850MB TEMPS WELL. EXPECT
LAKE/850MB DELTA T/S TO REMAIN IN 15-20 C RANGE. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOWERING INVERSION LEVEL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 900MB THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z KINL SOUNDING...WHICH
SHOWED INVERSION AROUND 875MB. CWPL SOUNDING UPSTREAM ALSO SHOWS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 800MB WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 800MB.
RUC IS NOT TOO QUICK IN DEVELOPING INVERSION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN PURE LES NATURE OF CURRENT
CONDITIONS...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. WILL
ADJUST FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN
WARNING AREAS...HIGHEST IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST SPOTTER REPORT SO
FAR OF 7 INCHES WAS IN ALGER COUNTY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY... WHERE LES HAS PERSISTED EAST OF MQT AND
FAVORABLE NNW FETCH SHOULD CONTINUE. ANOTHER WEAK BAND ALSO OVER
WESTERN MQT COUNTY LIKELY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHSN BASED ON
RADAR RETURNS.
COORD WITH APX.
.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALGER/LUCE/NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON MARQUETTE COUNTY.
JS
FXUS63 KAPX 291601 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1008 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999
15Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD SFC HIGH OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH RIDGING INTO
NE MN. VIS LOOP SHOWS SC DECK OVER NE MN WITH SOME HOLES BEGINNING
TO APPEAR. THIS DECK MATCHES WITH 60 PERCENT 925 MB RH CONTOUR FROM
THE 14Z RUC. WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP EVEN MORE
WITH ADDED SOLAR. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING AND TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPS.
.DLH...NONE.
GSF
FXUS63 KDLH 290945 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN
EXPECTED. CURRENT SET OF ZONES FEATURES MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING IN MOST
PLACES. BOTH THE 06Z ETA AND THE 09Z RUC SHOW THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING E OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z OR SO AS MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS ADVECTS IN FROM THE NW. THUS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
WEATHER SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE FORECAST IN A FEW HOURS...SO WILL ONLY
MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WORDING. CURRENT TEMPS ARE NOT FAR FROM FCST
HIGHS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THINK WE
ARE STILL IN DECENT SHAPE.
ONE CHANGE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MADE IS THE HIGH TEMP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS GRD HAS ALREADY REACHED 60 DEGREES. WILL SPLIT
OFF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO RAISE TEMPS ONE CATEGORY.
.GSP...NONE.
MOORE
FXUS62 KCAE 291528 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1010 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999
MAIN PROBLEM IS CLOUD COVER...AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SOME EROSION TO PORTION OF SC
DECK EXTENDING INTO NW IA...BUT BROAD AREA SEEMS TO BE HANGING TOUGH
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTHWEST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN SD YESTERDAY...HAVE TO THINK A SIMILAR
PERSISTANCE MIGHT OCCUR OVER JAMES VALLEY AREA TODAY. THIS THOUGHT
IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS /RUC AND 06Z MESOETA/...
WHICH KEEP 70%+ LOW LEVEL RH OVER WESTERN CWA MOST OF THE DAY. ONLY
CONCERN WITH THIS SCENARIO IS PIREPS AND VISUAL OBSERVATION HERE AT
FSD SHOW CLOUD DECK IS FAIRLY THIN /200 FT E OF MORVR/...SO ANY
ATTEMPT AT MIXING COULD BE SUCCESSFUL AT BREAKING IT UP. WILL GO
WITH PERSISTANCE IDEA IN FARTHEST WEST AREAS...WHILE KEEPING AREAS
CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. AS A RESULT...WILL
HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A NOTCH OR SO IN WESTERN COUNTIES FROM CURRENT
MID-UPPER 40S. WILL LET EASTERN AREA TEMPS RIDE FOR NOW.
.FSD...NONE
HAMEN
FXUS63 KABR 291554 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
930 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999
SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOW BLEEDING SWD OUT OF IOWA AND
MINNESOTA, PUTS MIDDLE TN IN A STABLE AND VERY COOL AIR MASS.
BASED ON LATEST RUC, WHICH SHOWS SGFNTLY COOLER 1000MB TEMPS TDY THAN
DID PREV (00Z) MODELS, WILL PROBABLY UPDATE AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR SOME
AREAS AND GO MORE WITH A NW-SE TEMP GRADIENT (RATHER THAN CURRENT
N-S SET-UP).
.BNA...NONE.
19
FXUS64 KMRX 291546 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1014 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO ZONES THIS UPDATE. 12Z SOUDINGS SUPPORT
CURRENT FCST HIGHS. MESOETA/RUC SHOWING GOOD COVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE
ON THE E SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN AND TNGT. WINDS SHUD BEGIN
TO INCREASE ARND 21Z. THIS WL BE THE BEGINNING OF STG CAA.
.RNK
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
NC...NONE.
AMS
FXUS61 KAKQ 291500 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PST MON NOV 29 1999
LITTLE SURFACE FORCING EVIDENT IN WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHERN CA
THIS MORNING...WITH PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ALONG PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/VANCOUVER COASTLINE UNDER CLASSIC COUPLED JET STREAK
PATTERN. IN FACT..HAVE YET TO SEE ANY PRESSURE FALLS OF NOTE SOUTH OF
THE OREGON BORDER. THESE LIGHT WINDS TOGETHER WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO PERSIST PAST NOON TODAY. IF
PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SLOWS...WILL BE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER DAY LIKE FRIDAY IN THE LOWER VALLEY...WHERE FOG REFORMS
RAPIDLY WITH EVENING COOLING.
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME...ONLY CHANGE WOULD BE TO RAISE INITIAL SNOW
LEVELS OVER THE SIERRA/SOUTHERN CASCADES AND SLOW THE LOWERING OF
SAID LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 8 HOURS. ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS
PLOTTED FOR THE SIERRA BOTH INDICATE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 8000
FEET TODAY...FALLING ONLY TO 6000-7000 FEET THIS EVENING. MOST
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF SNOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR..AS THE FLOW VEERS
SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING
HOURS DOWN TO 3000-3500 FEET. THUS...THE NEW 24 HOUR CHANGE IS
COVERED WELL IN WSW. SJC
.STO...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT...FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA
COUNTY INCLUDING BURNEY BASIN SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
FXUS66 KHNX 291731 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
300 PM CST MON NOV 29 1999
CLD SURG OF AIR DWN LM THIS AFTN HAS STRTD LK SNW IN NWRN IN. VPZ
RTPNG SNW ATTM WITH SAT/88D IMGRY INDC ANUDR BND BTWN GYY AND VPZ.
SNW BND ASSOCD WITH N-S SFC RDG ALNG MS RVR. STIL SUM DIFFS IN HNDLG
MVMT OF HI AND ULTMATLY END OF SNW IN NWRN IN AND SCT CLDS IN CHI.
NGM APPRS TO BE ODD MAN OUT. ETA/AVN/RUC MV CNTR OF HI TO VCNTY UIN
BY 06Z SO THAT SFC WNDS RMN NWLY AND KP SNW AND CLDS TO E OF CHI BUT
IN ERN CTYS IN CWA. BY TUES AM RDG LN NEWD OVR LM WIL PUT END TO SNW.
AFTR CLD NITE WITH TMPS INTO TEENS SLY FLO TUE WILL PSH MAXS BCK TO
NR SNSL MRK. DP TROF OFF E CST SLOES EWD MVMT OF H5 RDG AND POSTPNS
ARVL OF NXT WX SYS TO LT IN WK.
MOS GDNC CLS AND IN LN WITH CURNT FCSTS.
.CHI...NONE
SOMREK
FXUS63 KILX 292041 il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
247 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999
LATEST SAT AND 18Z SFC DATA SHOW SW TROF ROTATING ACRS LWR MI WITH
SFC TROF REFLECTION ALG ORD TO DAY LINE. SC/LK EFFECT SNSH DVLPG
IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS FTR AS CAA INTENSIFIES. KIWX REF LOOP
INDICATING NR 35 DBZ ECHOES ALG MKG TO SBN LINE. RUC MODEL ALG
WITH UW AND LAST EVENING MM5 RUN ALL POINTING TO SHORE PARALLEL SNOW
BAND PERSISTING ALG E SHORE OF LM FOR BETTER PART OF TONIGHT.
ALREADY SOME LOCALES IN SW MI/NW IN DOWN TO 1/4SM +SN AT TIMES.
12Z MODELS CONT AGREEABLE TREND WITH SYN FTRS THRU FCST PD. PRIMARY
ISSUE OVERNIGHT ARE POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMS ACRS LAPORTE...BERRIEN AND
ST JOE IND COUNTIES. WILL RELY ON RUC/UW/MM5 IN SHORT TERM AND
ETA/AVN BLEND AFT THAT. LK EFFECT PROGGED TO SHUT OFF AS LOW LVL
FLW BEGINS TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC BY 12Z TUE BUT UNTIL THEN PERSISTENT
CVRG PROGGED FM MKG TO SBN THRU 09Z. DROPPING TEMPS AFT SS WILL MAKE
ROADS MESSY AND FEEL THIS COMBINED WITH XPC GENERAL ACCUMS OF 2-3
INCHES WITH LOCAL 4 WILL THEN NEED TO HOIST ADVY FOR BERRIEN...
LAPORTE...ST JOE IN. FOR TUE...FEEL LK EFFECT CLDS TO HOLD IN BETTER
PART OF DAY PER TIME HGT CROSS SECTIONS WHICH INDICATE TRAPPED MOIST
UNDER DROPPING INVERSION. IN ADDITION VRY WK FLW UNDER SFC RIDGE AXIS
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY MIXING TO SPEAK OF AND WILL THEREFORE PLAY IT
PESSIMISTIC. AS SFC RIDGE WORKS E ACRS FA TUE...ROBUST WAA BEGINS TUE
NIGHT AND CONTS WED. LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF MID LVL CLD DVLPMT IN
ASSOCD/W STRONG WAA IN 850-700MB LYR WED WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING ABV
0. SUBSTANTIAL MIXING PROGGED AS WELL AND TEMPS TO WARM CONSIDERABLY
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLD CVR. THERMAL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD INTO EARLY
PART OF THE EXTDD AS PROGRESSIVE EPAC TROF THIS AM MARCHES E INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MED RANGE MODELS CONT TO DISPLAY SIG
DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYS. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD DICTATE WKNG
LEAD SW TO AFFECT AREA LATE THU-FRI WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG SYS
SAT-SUN TIME FRAME DEPENDENT UPON HOW SYS EVOLVES/TRACKS. WIL BEAR
WATCHING.
GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE FIRST HALF WITH NGM SOMEWHAT COOLER LTR HALF.
WILL SIDE AGAIN WITH FAN AS IT HAS NOT DONE TOO BAD LATELY. WORK
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
.IWX...LE SNOW ADVY TONIGHT FOR MIZ077...INZ003>004.
TEH
FXUS63 KIND 291930 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MST (1215 PM CST) MON NOV 29 1999
WL HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND CLD COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATL TRENDS AND LATEST RUC/MESOETA/ETA. CLEARING OF STRATUS IS
OCCURRING FM SE TO NW WITH LTL TO NO CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVR THE
NW HALF OF CWFA. FOG IS EVEN HANGING ON STILL IN NW HALF AS WELL.
THIS A LTL DIFFERENT FM CURRENT PACKAGE. SE PTN OF CWFA LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE SO WL MAKE LTL IF ANY CHANGE THERE WHERE WARMEST TEMPS AND
MOST SUN WL BE. SO WL HAVE BCMG MSUNNY SE. THEN WL HAVE FOG EARLY
AND BCMG PTSUN TO MCLDY NRN AND WRN SECTIONS AND LWR TEMPS ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES.
.GLD...NONE.
FXUS63 KGLD 290914 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS
1205 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999
...UPDATED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS / DECREASE SNOW SHOWER TO FLURRIES
GRR AREA...
SHORE PARALLEL BAND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THIS EVENT AS OF NOON
TODAY. BASED ON MSAS DATA SHOWING CONVERGENCE MOSTLY OVER LK MI AND
HIGHEST SFC DWPTS NEAR LAKE SHORE...PLUS NEW ETA/RUC SHOWING SFC TO
850 MOISTURE HIGHEST RH STAYING WITHIN 70 MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE
AND FACT THAT NOT MUCH DEVELOPING EAST OF US-131... HAD DECIDED TO
DECREASE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES I-96 SOUTH... AND US-131
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW BETTER 700 MOISTURE OVER NW
LWR MI AND THAT MATCHES BETTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA BUT
THAT DOES NOT GET INTO GRR CWA. EVEN SO... CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SCT
SNOW SHOWERS N OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO SEEN ON AWIPS
88D MOSAIC.
BASED ON PHONE CALLS TO AREAS ALONG LAKE SHORE THAT HAVE HAD 35DBZ
SHOWERS PASS OVERHEAD... SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS SO FAR. SO WILL
KEEP THE LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE
SHORE AREAS. GROUND TO WARM YET... AND SNOW BAND IS MOSTLY OFF
SHORE ANYWAY.
INCREASED HIGH TO 35 TO 40 OVER SRN 1/2 OF CWA SINCE MOST TEMPS IN
THE 35 TO 37 RANGE AT NOON... SO 35 TO 40 SHOULD BE SAFE GIVEN
DEVELOPING MDT CU AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM N AT THE SFC.
.GRR...NONE.
WDM
FXUS63 KDTX 291626 mi
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1025 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999
UPDATED ZNS TO CLEAN UP WORDING FOR FOG. PATCHY FG REMAINING ACROSS
NRN ZNS AND WILL HANDLE WITH NOWS UNTIL IT BURNS OFF. WENT MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN AS SATL SHOWS LITTLE IN WAY OF CIRRUS UPSTREAM. 15Z
RUC BRINGS WINDS TO S/SE ACROSS FA THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH CENTER MVS
SE INTO OH VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE.
.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
COBB
FXUS64 KMAF 291604 AMD tx