FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

FRIDAY, JULY 13, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Scott Scheleur / Aneta Lukasik                                                                                                                                                                                            CB07-92
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


JUNE 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $373.9 billion, a decrease of 0.9 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above June 2006. Total sales for the April through June 2007 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2007 percent change was revised from +1.4 percent (± 0.7%) to +1.5 percent (± 0.3%).

Retail trade sales were down 1.0 percent (±0.7%) from May 2007, but were 3.5 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 9.5 percent (±4.5%) from June 2006 and sales of health and personal care stores were up 7.0 percent (±1.7%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for July is scheduled to be released August 13, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--June 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jun(3) May Apr Jun May Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 373,946 377,287 371,651 360,358 359,363 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 298,737 299,818 295,041 286,591 285,736 Retail ....................................... 336,727 340,096 334,693 325,223 324,199 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 98,039 96,819 93,860 93,261 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 75,209 77,469 76,610 73,767 73,627 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 68,917 71,124 70,404 67,648 67,569 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,022 10,331 10,299 10,207 10,016 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,179 9,305 9,202 9,018 8,954 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,528 7,401 7,292 7,211 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,777 1,801 1,726 1,743 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,727 30,417 29,042 29,764 29,992 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 26,700 25,633 26,302 26,722 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 47,552 47,375 47,189 45,122 44,853 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 42,225 42,141 42,063 40,281 40,028 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,400 3,298 3,131 3,117 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,974 19,745 19,653 18,662 18,573 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,643 16,631 15,790 15,696 447 Gasoline stations................................ 35,845 36,262 34,842 35,148 34,837 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,711 18,980 18,518 17,856 17,626 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,467 3,339 3,308 3,248 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,255 2,223 2,235 2,232 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,535 7,507 7,368 7,256 7,280 452 General merchandise stores....................... 48,028 47,897 47,418 45,849 45,721 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,367 17,550 17,323 17,738 17,668 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 30,347 30,095 28,111 28,053 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 26,777 26,572 24,610 24,593 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,570 3,523 3,501 3,460 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,140 10,302 10,059 9,922 9,954 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 24,805 24,506 24,493 22,652 22,766 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 16,554 16,242 15,086 14,916 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 37,219 37,191 36,958 35,135 35,164 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--June 2007

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 6 month total % Chg. 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2007 from Jun(2) May Apr Jun May Code 2006 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,183,916 4.0 381,702 397,784 364,267 369,852 376,795 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,716,305 4.2 300,809 311,632 286,029 289,298 295,340 Retail ....................................... 1,964,287 3.8 343,180 359,068 327,420 333,698 340,330 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 95,839 89,099 89,882 90,552 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 467,611 3.0 80,893 86,152 78,238 80,554 81,455 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 430,398 3.1 74,293 79,445 72,094 74,007 75,137 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 63,510 57,967 60,213 60,716 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,707 6,144 6,547 6,318 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 58,843 3.0 9,952 10,228 9,413 10,156 9,866 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,476 5,112 5,311 5,164 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,752 4,301 4,845 4,702 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 50,861 3.1 8,508 8,572 7,808 8,392 8,243 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,971 6,187 6,789 6,685 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,601 1,621 1,603 1,558 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 179,762 -2.5 33,310 37,911 31,873 34,205 36,763 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 30,919 26,684 29,563 30,704 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 277,609 6.1 48,160 49,142 45,538 45,435 46,201 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 248,413 5.8 42,689 43,784 40,717 40,523 41,269 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,451 3,037 3,190 3,145 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 117,504 7.1 19,794 20,219 19,240 18,550 19,130 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 17,026 16,298 15,601 16,136 447 Gasoline stations................................ 204,193 1.8 38,569 39,236 34,877 37,503 37,485 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 101,250 6.7 17,446 18,755 17,381 16,628 17,234 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 868 853 775 760 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,675 3,469 3,245 3,404 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 7,056 6,676 6,420 6,345 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,248 2,279 2,096 2,223 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 39,546 1.2 7,188 6,779 6,233 6,770 6,545 452 General merchandise stores....................... 267,398 5.0 46,941 47,707 44,863 44,576 45,214 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 94,275 -1.1 16,309 16,899 16,070 16,599 16,912 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 17,341 16,492 17,067 17,396 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 30,808 28,793 27,977 28,302 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 27,152 25,429 24,536 24,814 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,656 3,364 3,441 3,488 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 58,235 1.5 10,126 11,038 9,239 10,101 10,631 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 141,475 9.2 22,293 23,329 22,717 20,828 21,563 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 16,190 15,154 14,286 14,543 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 219,629 5.5 38,522 38,716 36,847 36,154 36,465 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--June 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Jun May 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business May Jun Apr May Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.9 +3.8 +1.5 +5.0 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.4 +4.2 +1.6 +4.9 Retail .................................. -1.0 +3.5 +1.6 +4.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -2.9 +2.0 +1.1 +5.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -3.1 +1.9 +1.0 +5.3 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -3.0 -1.8 +0.3 +3.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.4 +1.8 +1.1 +3.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -2.3 -0.1 +4.7 +1.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +5.4 +0.4 +5.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.2 +4.8 +0.2 +5.3 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.2 +7.0 +0.5 +6.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.1 +2.0 +4.1 +4.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -1.4 +4.8 +2.5 +7.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.4 +3.8 +1.9 +3.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.3 +4.8 +1.0 +4.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.0 -2.1 +1.3 -0.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.6 +2.2 +2.4 +3.5 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.2 +9.5 +0.1 +7.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.1 +5.9 +0.6 +5.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--June 2007

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Jun May 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business May Jun Apr May Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -4.0 +3.2 +9.2 +5.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -3.5 +4.0 +9.0 +5.5 Retail .................................. -4.4 +2.8 +9.7 +5.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -6.1 +0.4 +10.1 +5.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -6.5 +0.4 +10.2 +5.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -2.7 -2.0 +8.7 +3.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.7 +1.4 +9.8 +4.0 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -12.1 -2.6 +18.9 +3.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -2.0 +6.0 +7.9 +6.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -2.5 +5.3 +7.5 +6.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -2.1 +6.7 +5.1 +5.7 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.7 +2.8 +12.5 +4.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -7.0 +4.9 +7.9 +8.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +6.0 +6.2 +8.8 +3.6 452 General merchandise stores....................... -1.6 +5.3 +6.3 +5.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -3.5 -1.7 +5.2 -0.1 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -8.3 +0.2 +19.5 +3.8 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -4.4 +7.0 +2.7 +8.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.5 +6.5 +5.1 +6.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JUNE 2007 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the period August 2006 to present.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, a U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: July 13, 2007