NAICS Code: 541620 NAICS code 541620: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to negotiate on a sole source basis with Dr. . Ryan Boyles of the University of North Carolina State. Negotiations shall be conducted pursuant to the authority of 41 U.S.C. 253 (c)(1), which allowsfor negotiations without full and open competition if there is only one responsible source.PART I ? BACKGROUNDThe US EPA ORD Global Change Research Program researches and assesses the impacts of changing climate, as well as shifts in the drivers of global change, including land-use, national/regional energy and transportation choices on US air quality. The body of climate change research indicates that a warming climate will manifest, not as a simple, across-the-board increase in temperature, but as changing synoptic-scale meteorological patterns. Modeling studies supported by the EPA GCRP have shown that the primary impacts of a warming climate on air quality will be tied to changing synoptic-scale weather patterns.

Meteorology has a well understood role in determining air quality. For example, high ambient O3 concentrations are typically associated with low wind speeds (stagnation), high solar radiation levels and warm temperatures. In the case of PM, precipitation frequency is closely tied to ambient concentration. For both PM and O3, inversion layer heights play a large role in local pollutant concentrations.

State-level policy analysts and decision-makers concerned with air quality are in need of policy evaluation tools that consider information about projected local and regional air quality responses to climate change. (cf. NRMRL Adaptation Workshop report, 2008) Such a policy evaluation tool should be constructed on the basis of a general framework (or platform) that can be tuned to fit a particular state or region by the incorporation of AQ sensitivity details characteristic of the area, along projected changes in regional meteorological patterns. Such a framework will allow all users to benefit from future improvements.

The purpose of this sole source purchase order is the acquisition analysis services for EPA?s Global Change Research Program in the Office of Research and Development. The analyses to be obtained will support the development of an air quality management planning tool that estimates the future impacts on air quality of changing climate at urban (MSA) scales. The State of North Carolina will serve as the test case for developing the methodology that will serve as the foundation for the air quality planning tool.

The first phase in the development of the methodology involves identification of the meteorological patterns to which AQ is most sensitive in the test case region. These patterns can serve as a "basis set" from which future meteorological dynamics can be projected using regional climate modeling outputs. This first phase will yield necessary insight into the best methodologies for use in the design of the generalized tool framework.

To construct the meteorological and air quality baseline, the following relationships will be analyzed and linked to a geospatial grid that will be compatible with those used in meteorology and air quality modeling:

Current and historical statistical relationships of local air quality observations to local climate observations, including individual meteorological variables Identification of current and historical meteorological patterns characteristic of the test case region Construction of a geophysical/numerical model linking site-specific North Carolina air quality responses to the meteorological patterns characteristic of the North Carolina region

The work proposed here will yield the dataset required to establish the first of these relationships -- a geospatially and temporally consistent set of local air quality and local climate/meteorological observations for North Carolina.



PART II - JUSTIFICATION

The work to be performed under this Purchase Request requires access to and expert knowledge of the climate, meteorological and air quality data for North Carolina and the US Southeast region, and substantial experience in the analysis of these data.

FAR 6.302-1 authorizes contract actions when the agency?s need for the supplies or services required by the Agency are available from only one responsible source and that no other type of supplies or services will satisfy the Government?s needs. The statutory authority is 41 U.S.C. 253 (c) (1).

The responsible source identified for this task order, Dr. Ryan Boyles, has a unique set of capabilities and resources which make him well-suited to meet the requirements of this contract. Dr. Boyles has served in the North Carolina Climate Office, first as a meteorologist, then as Assistant Director from 2001 to 2006, assuming directorship of the State Climate Office in 2006. As the North Carolina State Climatologist, and director of the North Carolina State Climate Office, Dr. Boyles is particularly well-qualified as both an expert in the field and a senior investigator with peer-reviewed publications on the analysis of the state's climate and meteorological patterns. Furthermore, in his capacity as director of the NC State Climate Office, Dr. Boyles manages database containing data that is not available in national data repositories, e.g. solar radiation, soil temperature and moisture for the state of North Carolina. He and his staff possess the knowledge and experience required to obtain and assess the specified data, and to perform the analyses specified in the statement of work.



Dr. Boyles has conducted, or directed, a wide variety of meteorological and climate change analyses for North Carolina. He has been involved in several projects in areas pertinent to the analyses specified in the statement of work, including applied meteorology and climatology, Geographic Information Systems, spatial analysis, and applied statistics. To illustrate the level of experience and expertise he possesses in the area of scientific and technical writing and editing, the following is a list of publication he has produced specifically related to the analysis of meteorological, land surface and climatological data:

Carbone, G., J. Rhee, H. Mizzell, and R. Boyles (2006). A regional-scale drought monitoring tool for the Carolinas. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (in press).

Boyles, R., S. Raman, and A. Sims (2006). Sensitivity of mesoscale precipitation dynamics to surface soil and vegetation contrasts over the Carolina Sandhills. Pure and Applied Geophysics, (in press).

Childs, Peter, Jr., Sethu Raman, and Ryan Boyles (2006): High resolution numerical simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003) over North Carolina, Natural Hazards (in press)

Holder, C., R. Boyles, P. Robinson, S. Raman, and G. Fishel (2006). Calculating a daily normal temperature range that reflects daily temperature variability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol 87, pp 769-774.

Holder, C., R. Boyles, A. Syed, D. Niyogi, and S. Raman (2006). Comparison of collocated automated (NCECONet) and manual (COOP) climate observations in North Carolina. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 23, pp 671-682.

Raman, S., A. Sims, R. Ellis, and R. Boyles (2005). Numerical simulation of mesoscale circulations in a region of contrasting soil types. Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 162, pp 1698-1714.

Boyles, R.P., C. Holder, and S. Raman (2004). North Carolina Climate: A summary of climate normals and averages at 18 agricultural research stations, NC Agricultural Research Service Technical Bulletin 322, 92 pp.

Boyles, R. P. and S. Raman (2003). Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (1949-1998), Environment International, Vol 29, pp 263 ? 275.

Boyles, R. P., et al. (1998), "Air Quality Meteorology, an Internet-based course designed to teach meteorology to users of air quality and meteorological numerical models." (http://www.shodor.org/metweb/)

PART III ? SCOPE OF WORK Deliverable #1: The contractor shall develop a quality assurance project plan (QAPP) for this project for the project manager?s and quality assurance coordinator?s approval. The QAPP shall address the quality assurance/quality control for data analysis for this project. (See Appendix A: Joint Quality Management/Quality Assurance Project Plan (JQM/QAPP) for Data Analysis for: An Urban-scale AQ Planning Tool for Global Change Adaptation -- Test Case Data Acquisition) Deliverable #2:The contractor shall provide EPA with a temporally- and spatially-consistent, quality-controlled and assured dataset that contains high-quality atmospheric and land surface observations for the State of North Carolina, including but not limited to: 1) Observed ambient ozone concentrations from the entire period of record for available monitoring locations in North Carolina

2) Matching meteorological and land surface observations, including:* Dry bulb temperature* Relative humidity* Dew point temperature* Precipitation* Wind speed and direction* Solar radiation* Soil temperature* Soil moisture

All observations are to be synchronized to maintain temporal consistency based on the documented times of observation. Where possible, these observations should be co-located. For sites without co-located air quality and climatological/meteorological observations, atmospheric variables from the nearest neighboring site or interpolated values based on surrounding climate observations will be used. Climate observations that are missing when ozone observations are available will be replaced using interpolated estimates from surrounding monitoring stations. All interpolated or adjusted data are to be flagged. The contractor will flag data that are missing or are possibly unreliable. The database will be provided to EPA in either SAS or R format.

The development of the database will be staged to permit an intermediate evaluation of its format and content. In the first stage (Deliverable #2a), complete, integrated datasets will be produced for two meteorologically distinct air quality monitoring sites and submitted for EPA evaluation. The contractor will then complete the database (Deliverable #2b), as described above, accounting for feedback provided by EPA on the first stage deliverable.

Project TimelineDeliverable Delivery Date1) Quality Assurance Project Plan Fifteen (15) days following contract award2a) Test datasets for two sites Thirty (30) days following contract award2b) Complete dataset, as specified above Sixty (60) days from receipt of EPA comments on Deliverable #1This notice of intent is not a request for competitive proposals. However, interested parties may identify their interest and capability to respond to the requirement by submitting documentation, to martinez.thomas@epa.gov, phone number (202)564-1418, which establishes that their specifications meet EPA's requirement. Documentation must be received within fifteen (15) days after the date of publication of this synopsis to be considered by EPA. A determination not to compete this proposed contract based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the government. Information received will normally be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement.