Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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000 FXUS64 KTSA 120925 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 425 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2009 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING. THE COLD...DRY AIR IS SLOWING THE MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE RADAR ECHOES INDICATION PRECIPITATION BUT LITTLE IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK MAKING FOR A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST ON PRECIPITATION TYPE. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT BUT HAVE DECREASED ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY FALLEN AND COOLING TODAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE DEPENDENT ON EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SURFACE DRY AIR. DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT ARE FORECAST... IT IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW WITH BRIEF TRANSITION PERIODS BETWEEN THE TWO. WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF EITHER SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE...DO NOT BELIEVE EITHER OF THESE WILL BE PREDOMINATE OVER THE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ALSO ARE DIFFICULT. POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS OF ONE OR TWO INCHES MAINLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT OF A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING AROUND FREEZING UNTIL SUBSTANTIAL WARMING BEGINS ON SUNDAY. STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 37 28 45 33 / 50 10 10 20 FSM 37 29 44 35 / 60 20 30 40 MLC 38 30 44 33 / 60 20 40 40 BVO 39 28 46 30 / 20 10 10 20 FYV 34 25 45 29 / 60 10 10 20 BYV 32 24 44 29 / 50 10 10 20 MKO 37 27 46 32 / 50 10 20 30 MIO 38 25 47 30 / 20 10 10 20 F10 37 29 45 32 / 50 10 20 30 HHW 41 34 44 34 / 70 30 60 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ063-OKZ069. AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002- ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....15
