FXUS65 KBOI 282104
AFDBOI

SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO
300 PM MDT MON APR 28 2003

A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS SPRUNG UP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 
STRONG WAVE TRAVELING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. THIS IS IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH LATEST VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LONG 
WAVE TROUGH. THIS WAVE IS THE LATEST OF SEVERAL THAT HAVE EMANATING 
FROM CLOSED LOW THAT CONTINUES TO CRAWL AT A SNAILS PACE ALONG THE 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. 

SHORT TERM...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUND THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND THE 
MAIN CHALLENGE LIES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES. IN A 
NUTSHELL...ETA TAKES THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE AND SLOWLY DAMPENS IT 
OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE 12Z AVN KEEPS A FAIR DEGREE OF 
AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN AS IT MOVES THE WAVE EAST ACROSS THE 
AREA AND INTO MONTANA. HARD TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON EITHER SOLUTION 
BUT IN EITHER CASE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH AFTERNOON 
CONVECTION EACH DAY AND COOL TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

EXTENDED...DAYS 4-7 /FRI-MON/ WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE 
SLIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE THE CLOSED LOW 
IS PROJECTED TO TAKE A SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY ALONG THE COASTLINE 
BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM IN THE 
LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY. END RESULT WILL BE FOR CHANCE POPS AND 
SEASONAL TEMPS EACH DAY WITH SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST.


.BOI...NONE.

$$

CDECKER