FXUS04 KWBC 281004 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 604 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUL 28/1200 UTC THRU JUL 31/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY 1... ...UPDATE... NAM/GFS SHOWED ONLY SLGT CHNGS ACRS THE CONUS. BIGGEST CHNG WAS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN E-W ORIENTED BAND OF MOD/HVY RNFL FM UPST NY THRU NRN NEW ENG INTO DOWNEAST ME. MDLS GNRLY SHIFTD NWD WITH THIS PCPN. THIS HAPPENED LAST NGT OVR THE OH VLY AND MDLS WERE CORRECT. COULD BE LINKED TO THE POS TILT OF THE SYS AND THE BROAD RDG ACRS THE SRN CONUS. MDLS STILL SEEM TO BE UNDERPLAYG THE LOLVL INSTBLTY THIS AFTN OUT AHD/SE OF THE SYS...SO ALTHOU PULLED PCPN NWD...ALSO INCRSD AMTS INTO THE WRMR/MORE UNSTBL AIR ACRS THE NRN MID ATLC STS INTO SRN NEW ENG. OTHER CHNGS ACRS THE CONUS WERE MOSTLY DUE TO ONGOING RDR/SATL TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO FAVOR INCRSG PCPN OVR THE INITIAL DAY 1 FCST. ECKERT ...SYNOPSIS... VRY TYPICAL SUMMER PTRN ACRS THE CONUS WITH MAIN BAND OF WRLYS ALNG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND VRY WEAK FLOW OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MANY VORTS CAUGHT IN THE WEAK FLOW THAT WL AID WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL CNVCTV DVLPMENT. MDLS ARE GNRLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE LRG SCALE FEATRS...BUT ARE HAVG TRBL WITH THE SMALLER VORTS...SOME OF WHICH ARE NOT REAL. LOOKG BACK AT YSTRDAS QPF FCSTS SHOWS THE NAM GNRLY DID BETTER THAN THE GFS. ...NERN U.S... POS TILTED MIDLVL VORT MOVG THRU THE GRT LKS REGION THIS MRNG SHLD MOV STEADILY EWD TDA THRU THE NERN U.S. AND SUPPORT A SWATH OF MOD/HVY RNFL. ALTHOU THE MIDLVL SUPPORT IS DECENT...THE LOLVL FOCUS IS WEAK. MDLS SEEM TO BE KEYG ON THE 8H BNDRY THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THRU THE REGION. MDLS CONT TO SHOW SOME 8H CVRG AND A WEAK THETA-E RDG AHD OF THE BNDRY. THIS MRNGS CNVCTN SHLD ALSO SUPPORT A DECENT OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT WL AID WITH INCRSG LOLVL CVRG. DEEP MSTR IS ALRDY IN PLC WITH PWS ARND TWO INCHES. CNVCTN MOVG THRU THE GRT LKS THIS MRNG WL LKLY HOLD TOGETHER AND INCRS IN STRNGTH THIS AFTN AS IT MOVS INTO A MORE UNSTBL AIRMASS ACRS PORTIONS OF NEW ENG. XPCT SOME 1-2 INCH PER HR RNFL RATES. ...OH VLY TO LWR MS VLY... MIDLVL VORT OVR ERN ARK THIS MRNG IS FCST TO BCM ELONGATED TWD THE NE TDA AS THE SYS TRYS TO PHASE WITH THE SHRTWV MOVG THRU THE NERN U.S.. MDLS SHOW THE MIDLVL SYS CONTG TO WEAKEN...BUT LEAVG A SWATH OF VRY HI PWS...NR 2.25 INCHES...ACRS THE REGION. XPCT PERIODIC CVNCTN TO CONT TO FIRE UNDER THE VORT AND ASSOCD DEEP MSTR PLUME. THE ACTVTY WL MOV VRY SLOLY...THEREFORE...SUPPORTG ISOLD TWO INCH PER HR RNFL RATES IN SOME AREAS. ...FL/SERN U.S. CST... SEA BREEZE CVRG AND DEEP MSTR WL SUPPORT CNVCTN FIRG LATER THIS MRNG ALNG THE CSTS THAT SHLD PROGRESS WWD/INLAND THIS AFTN AND DIE OUT THIS EVE. THE HVIEST/MORE ORGANIZED CNVCTN SHLD BE OVR SRN FL WHERE LCLZD HVY RNFL IS PSBL. ...SRN PLNS TO OZARKS... RIBBON OF DEEP MSTR LYG ACRS THE REGION AND A MIDLVL VORT STUCK IN THE WEAK FLOW WL AID WITH ADDTNL CNVCTN INTO THIS AFTN ACRS THE REGION. MDLS...ESPCLY THE GFS HAS BEEN PRDCG RNFL AMTS WELL ABV OBSVD VALUES AND IT SEEMS LIKE THERE IS MORE FEEDBACK THIS MRNG. NAM SHOWS THE MIDLVL SYS WEAKENG...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT STG. ENSMEAN QPF/ENSQPF SCHEMES SUPPORTS GNRLY LGT/MOD AMTS ACRS THE REGION. ISOLD HVY RNFL WL BE PSBL. ...AZ/NM... NO MAJOR CHNGS TO PAST SVRL DAYS AS STG MIDLVL VORTS ARE CAUGHT IN THE WEAK FLOW REGIME OVR THE REGION. MDLS CONT TO HAVE PRBLMS WITH DEPICTG CNVCTN.YSTRDA WAS A RELATIVELY DOWN DAY FOR CNVCTN ACRS AZ...WHILE NM HAD WDSPRD CVNCTN. THINK TDA SHLD BE MORE ACTV ACRS AZ AND ALSO NM. XPCT CVNCTN TO FORM LATER THIS MRNG OVR THE HIER TERRAIN AND GNRLY PROGRESS SWD THRU THIS EVE/TNGT WITH CELL MERGERS SUPPORTG POCKETS OF VRY HVY RNFL. ISOLD 1-2 INCH PER HR RATES WL BE PSBL. ...NRN PLNS INTO UPR GRT LKS... MDLS ARE HINTG AT TWO AREAS OF CNVCTN DVLPG LATER TDA AND PSBLY INTO TNGT ACRS THE REGION. MDLS SHOW MIDLVL DYNAMICS/LOLVL THERMAL FORCG INCRSG THIS PD. SFC BNDRY SHLD HELP FOCUS LIFT ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS WITH CNVCTN PSBLY DVLPG INTO AN MCS LATER TDA/TNGT ACRS WI INTO THE U.P./NRN L.P. OF MI. HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMTS AS THE LLJ WL LIE NRLY PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPR LVL FLOW AND SUPPORT SOME TRAING AND MSTR POOLG WITH PWS INCRSG TO ARND 1.50 INCHES. LATER TNGT MDLS SHOW INRSG LOLVL THERMAL FORCG ACRS ND THAT SHLD RESULT IN INCRSG ELEVATED CNVCTN IN THIS AREA. MSTR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO AMTS ARE LGT FOR NOW. DAY 2... SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES... THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S...ALLOWING A SLY FLOW TO INCREASE THE INFLUX OF ENERGY AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. PW VALUES ARE FCST TO REACH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF AZ WHERE NAM/GFS SUPPORT THREAT FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE RAIN. INDICATED .50 INCH PLUS AMTS THRU THE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS OF AZ...BUT ISOLD HEAVIER AMTS ARE LIKELY. UPR MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES... NEARLY STNRY BNDRY IS FCST TO ALIGN FROM MN TO LOWER MI...AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER WI AND MI SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK VORTS RIPPLE ESE ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE UPPER JET. HIGH AVBL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES ALSO COINCIDES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A FEW CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA CENTERED ON WI...WITH SOME LOCALIZED 1 INCH PLUS QPF TOTALS. SOUTHEAST... DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST AND SRN MID ATLC TO ALLOW FOR MORE MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT TO BE ALIGNED WITH A SHRTWV AND VORT CENTER TRACKING ACROSS NC/VA DURING SAT....WHICH NAM/GFS BOTH TRACK. ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MAY HELP TO IGNITE MORE CONVECTION AS PW VALUES HOVER AROUND 2 INCHES. DAY 3... UPPER MIDWEST... NAM/GFS SUPPORT SOME 2 INCH PW VALUES AS THERMAL BNDRY LIFTS SLOWLY NWD INTO UPPER MI. WEAK VORT ENERGY SHOULD ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND SLIDE SEWD IN THE UPPER DIVERGENT FROM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW MORE AREAS OF CONVECTION FOCUSING ON THE FRONTAL BNDRY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAIN FROM NRN MN TO UPPER MI AND NRN WI. SOUTHEAST... LINGERING SHRTWV ENERGY SHOULD BRING MORE CONVECTION FROM THE CAROLINAS TO AL/GA AND NRN FL AS THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD PW VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED DURING THE AFTN/EVNG HOURS WITH ISOLD 1 INCH PLUS AMTS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST... PERSISTENT VORT ENERGY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MORE MAINLY DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF AZ AND SURROUNDING AREAS AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NWD FROM MEXICO. ECKERT/HEDGE GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 29/12Z 0.01 268795 252798 241806 241814 249826 262832 277836 309838 336821 355810 361818 357830 337866 314882 300897 294913 290925 289943 283956 278967 285968 297959 307950 322939 335933 346933 355954 353970 342979 326985 310988 296989 288001 296009 315009 353999 382973 388960 389940 382915 382901 394896 405891 411867 410842 412827 425815 441794 450772 451742 458713 469669 466652 449652 427668 390698 333768 296792 279795 268795 0.01 535191 534183 534175 534170 533163 531153 527141 522126 515107 501042 495006 485965 475932 473915 481904 492882 498855 497809 494776 479775 461788 445809 441821 439826 438830 438834 435851 433870 433886 439932 447964 458975 466994 469017 472039 484058 491088 496115 499140 508161 519175 527188 529191 531192 535191 0.01 380054 374044 371042 368038 356013 353010 349009 346007 343008 340011 330016 325020 321025 320029 317034 308031 303029 296029 290031 287034 288040 291043 297048 302059 302063 300066 297068 294070 292076 294080 294084 286084 282087 280092 280096 284107 289114 306130 316144 321147 328148 336149 343147 353147 365147 369148 373148 375144 372141 364133 358127 355115 349105 349102 351102 355105 360107 364106 364102 363098 363091 362087 363085 368087 371089 375088 377085 376079 374072 372065 370061 371058 374055 378056 380054 0.25 425690 408714 398737 395757 394776 386791 376804 367823 341867 321890 306906 301926 305937 312932 318921 327913 341909 353919 359935 364953 365969 370974 379958 377933 375909 377888 385871 396844 410815 426793 440772 445750 449723 455698 458679 451666 439674 425690 0.25 468874 468868 466866 462859 457858 454860 449869 444859 442858 440859 438867 438878 438888 440901 442912 445924 446935 449946 452948 456938 457934 459933 462930 461926 459918 460907 464890 467884 468874 0.25 363054 362050 360047 357041 355033 351030 346034 342033 335028 329028 328034 330041 330045 327048 321052 321057 322059 325061 332064 335065 337068 337073 335075 330079 325084 321091 311095 299103 298109 300114 309123 313128 318132 323132 325130 331128 334121 338117 343111 343106 341098 341093 345085 350081 355078 358075 357070 358060 360057 363054 0.25 284821 283817 280816 274813 272811 271807 267802 259803 252807 251810 253812 258815 256819 256823 259824 264826 270828 274828 278826 284821 0.25 312000 312997 310996 307996 304995 302996 299998 302001 305001 308001 310001 312000 0.50 426702 409744 404765 407779 414788 421786 433771 439752 441735 446718 450700 451690 446678 439686 432694 426702 0.50 456904 456896 453894 451897 448901 445895 444896 443900 446903 447907 447911 447920 448928 450934 452927 453922 454916 455909 456904 0.50 355855 337883 335890 341894 346896 353903 364900 378873 395832 395814 387809 379813 371829 364840 360849 355855 0.50 373942 373938 372935 372931 371928 370925 370924 367924 366925 365929 364930 365933 365937 366937 368939 369941 372942 372943 373942 0.50 357054 355051 352049 350048 349044 349043 348041 346040 346041 344044 343044 341048 338045 335046 335048 334052 335055 338054 341053 344054 344055 347057 349056 352056 355055 357054 0.50 336102 335098 332097 329098 327099 321102 313102 310103 309107 307111 304113 306117 309118 314123 320125 320119 320114 322110 326108 332106 336102 1.00 416751 426742 440721 445707 439706 434708 424719 414739 413749 414750 416751 1.00 435755 434753 431754 429757 428759 427761 425765 424770 427771 429768 430767 431764 433760 435756 435755 1.00 371844 353873 351885 354892 360891 377866 383849 381839 371844 1.50 436719 434716 422730 418739 421740 428731 435720 436719 24HR QP VT 30/12Z 0.01 484681 483674 480672 474667 468662 465662 460666 454673 449683 441698 431714 428721 427729 424747 421757 419766 417783 416787 413788 410784 410777 409774 406772 401774 395781 390780 388778 385744 381738 378732 375728 368724 365723 360724 353730 350736 342752 335765 328778 320792 312803 307805 300804 294802 285801 274799 266798 260798 253801 249807 249812 250816 254825 258829 263832 269834 273838 278842 283849 287857 289867 288874 286880 280894 278902 278910 284927 279946 278954 279963 279969 280975 285980 287981 290982 291980 297976 302972 306967 309960 318947 326935 334930 340930 344932 355940 363943 369943 373946 377952 383958 385960 389959 394952 398944 402928 399907 401900 405891 407884 406875 404865 402852 402840 404830 406824 413820 415828 415834 416841 416852 416861 417875 419881 421885 433899 442917 444923 447935 450956 452969 454982 457991 460995 463996 466994 473989 479981 482973 487966 490962 491956 491948 491940 489927 486913 484905 480892 474875 467856 462845 457834 455828 456821 457811 462792 470756 476739 481718 483708 484698 484691 483687 484681 0.01 513271 515265 515260 512252 510246 505240 502234 501228 500222 498219 493216 492217 490222 489233 487237 485237 480235 476234 474236 472241 473250 475256 485268 488270 489272 492280 496283 501285 504285 507284 511275 513271 0.01 404125 405120 404116 399111 396111 392113 387112 381111 373110 371106 370102 371097 373095 376096 379101 381102 383100 386094 389090 389084 388079 389074 389069 387065 384061 378061 375057 376050 373045 369042 362041 357042 354043 349046 345048 338048 333045 331039 327038 322039 314040 310042 308050 305056 297062 284062 280062 272060 263055 259054 256055 252059 250065 250070 251076 253080 257085 264087 272093 281099 290106 296114 302124 308134 309141 307146 304152 306156 314163 319167 323169 328168 331162 337161 341156 343154 346153 353152 357152 363149 365146 366143 370139 373136 379134 386137 392138 399133 404125 0.25 482940 481932 479923 476920 472919 468918 465913 463906 460899 453876 448860 447853 447846 446840 444832 439824 436824 433827 431830 427840 426846 425853 426865 429876 432883 434887 444908 449919 456930 462936 469940 472943 476947 479949 481945 482940 0.25 377760 375754 373750 371748 367747 360749 355753 345768 337779 329792 321804 314810 306814 300814 294812 282808 268806 261806 255810 259814 264819 268823 274826 287830 292832 296837 298842 298846 299855 300865 301873 302884 301891 297904 295910 294919 295928 296934 295939 293946 292955 292958 298956 303950 307943 313930 314921 314914 315910 317907 321902 327896 335892 339891 343892 350894 353895 358895 364894 367892 371888 373881 375873 373865 366847 361840 357836 350834 344834 337833 331830 329828 329825 329822 331819 335815 344812 347805 352799 358795 374791 377788 378784 378775 378765 377760 0.25 367125 367121 363118 357115 353110 349103 349096 350089 350083 351078 352075 349072 346072 344070 340069 336069 329072 324078 318081 310079 303081 299080 294076 288073 283071 269066 265067 263068 262073 264075 272077 277079 283083 288086 294088 299091 303098 307104 309110 310117 313125 317130 323128 326121 331120 334122 338126 342132 347135 354133 359129 367125 0.25 361072 362068 362065 361063 358062 355065 354068 353072 355073 358073 361072 361072 0.50 459908 455896 451885 449877 446873 442867 441863 437856 434853 431859 431867 432875 437887 442897 447907 450913 454917 457918 459912 459908 0.50 374769 372762 370760 365758 361759 358762 357767 354772 351776 348779 348783 351785 354784 357785 363786 366785 372783 373779 373773 374769 0.50 367878 367872 366867 362861 358852 354849 350849 346850 338853 333859 334864 339873 343878 347882 353884 362883 367878 0.50 354124 352115 348110 345101 343092 339084 337082 333080 329081 330085 330095 327098 322096 316091 314090 310091 309096 310098 313117 315120 319122 321120 322115 325112 328112 334113 342127 345130 349131 353127 354124 0.50 318831 316826 313823 309824 307825 304825 298827 299830 303834 306836 308839 312843 315843 316839 317835 318831 0.50 311858 310855 310852 308850 306853 306856 307859 307863 307866 306867 307869 307873 308876 309879 310878 310875 311874 310872 310868 310865 310862 311861 311858 0.50 292821 291818 289816 286814 283814 280813 277813 274812 271812 269814 272815 273816 275818 276819 277820 279821 282821 285821 288822 289822 291823 292821 0.50 308929 308925 308922 308919 306916 305915 302915 300917 300919 300921 300924 301927 301930 302933 302937 303938 304936 305934 306932 307930 308929 1.00 446891 445887 442884 442888 443892 444895 446891 1.00 356867 355865 355864 353861 351859 349859 348858 345859 342860 341861 341865 343868 344871 345872 347874 349875 351874 354873 356871 356869 356867 24HR QP VT 31/12Z 0.01 525256 521255 518253 518249 516238 512231 507222 502218 498217 493215 485213 477212 472215 471221 471226 471228 468230 456236 456242 456245 458250 460254 466258 475261 479263 483267 485273 489282 494288 502294 506295 510294 513290 0.01 463679 462675 461675 458677 457679 457681 455685 455686 455691 455692 453697 454700 458702 460699 462695 462694 463689 463688 463684 463681 463679 0.01 523202 523192 521187 518181 516176 513172 507171 501171 498173 496176 497181 498186 499189 502190 506193 510198 512204 514204 519204 521205 523202 0.01 489911 488901 486895 481879 476862 474853 471843 469837 465829 459818 457812 453803 446796 443793 441786 441771 435739 435727 433719 430710 426707 423708 420710 413720 400741 395750 392755 388757 379753 374753 369755 364754 359752 351751 339756 328759 317764 312768 308772 302779 298788 295798 292801 287801 269798 259799 250802 247812 248819 250826 256834 262839 270846 277853 282861 282865 281871 278881 277889 278897 279904 280912 282918 284925 283933 280942 277951 276958 279965 282968 286969 291968 294965 301960 305955 307949 312941 316931 322923 330916 335914 342913 347914 352915 357916 363915 368912 371906 374901 378897 386890 394883 400879 407876 415874 426872 435874 445883 446887 447895 447904 448912 450921 452930 455936 459940 464951 468967 470972 473973 476967 478959 479953 484949 486942 485932 489911 0.01 398117 394113 389112 386113 380116 377115 374113 374110 374108 377107 381105 384100 389097 391090 391086 389083 387071 383065 378062 375063 372061 367060 360059 354060 338068 335067 333069 329072 327072 325075 325084 324086 321088 315086 310084 308079 303069 299067 292066 287065 282062 278061 272061 262065 255071 255077 257081 263083 266085 274092 283096 292102 298108 301113 303118 305123 308127 310140 311145 313150 319153 325153 332149 342155 346154 348148 349141 355141 359138 366137 370134 373138 382131 392124 396120 398117 0.25 513271 513263 511257 509253 507248 504244 502242 495244 492245 487246 486250 486255 488260 490266 493272 496277 498282 503286 506286 509283 511275 513271 0.25 478919 478908 477897 475887 472877 467861 463855 458854 451857 449860 449864 450874 452884 454901 458917 463932 466939 469945 472944 474941 477933 478926 478919 0.25 428772 428768 427764 424763 421763 418769 416775 414779 413784 413789 414796 419798 424794 426789 428783 428776 428772 0.25 364875 363870 362867 357863 351860 346856 341851 338845 339830 339814 338798 335789 330787 326786 321788 314793 304803 294811 288816 282820 279823 279827 283833 287838 291845 294851 295857 295873 296883 300888 304894 308902 314902 321899 335893 352889 358886 361883 364875 0.25 379079 379075 378073 377072 375071 374072 374075 374079 375081 378083 379079 0.25 358128 359123 357117 353113 349107 346102 343096 340092 338092 335095 333100 332105 337112 340119 342125 347130 353131 358128 0.25 320108 318104 315101 313099 310098 308101 309104 310105 311107 312108 315110 318111 320108 0.50 502276 504272 504267 504266 503262 502260 499259 496258 494256 492257 492262 492263 494268 495268 497272 499274 499275 502276 502276 0.50 475898 473890 469878 465871 460867 457869 455872 455883 456896 459908 462920 465927 468936 471937 472936 474933 474920 474912 475900 475898 0.50 349877 346871 343868 341865 337862 333859 330857 327857 325860 325864 326870 328873 329878 329881 333883 338884 342883 346881 349877 0.50 351120 350117 349113 347110 346107 345106 344103 343102 341102 340102 340106 340107 341109 342113 343115 344116 345119 346120 348121 351121 351120 0.50 319859 320855 319852 316846 314843 313837 312827 310821 307817 300822 292825 291828 293831 294834 298846 300855 302864 304868 307869 309868 316862 319859 1.00 468896 467892 466888 464884 463884 461885 461886 461890 462892 463893 464897 465901 466905 467908 467905 468900 468896 468896 $$