FXUS04 KWBC 140626 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 225 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID OCT 14/1200 UTC THRU OCT 15/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY 1... ...ERN LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST U.S... A SHRTWV TROF WILL LIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROF OVR THE CNTRL U.S. EXPECT PCPN AMTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GNLY LGT GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AT LLVLS. MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES HERE AND FOR THE MOST PART LEANED MORE ETAISH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST WHERE THE ETA HAS HAD BETTER CONTINUITY THAN THE GFS FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. ...CONCERNING THE AMPLIFYING CNTRL U.S. TROF... MODEL MASS FIELD FCSTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASOCTD CDFNT MAKING PICKING AND CHOOSING BTWN MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES DIFFICULT AT BEST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ETA WITH PCPN COVERAGE AND TOTALS ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VLYS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE DVLPNG UPPER CNTR. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HEAVIER GFS GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LVL FORCING INVOLVED WITH THE CLOSING OFF OF THE UPPER CNTR. MEANWHILE...SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND DVLP INTO THE SERN U.S. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASOCTD CDFNT. TREND IN BOTH THE 0000 UTC ETA AND THE GFS WAS BEEN LESSEN THE NWD EXTENT OF SGFNT PCPN FM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ETA AND NGM MAX RNFL AXIS HOWEVER REMAINS NORTH OF THE GFS AXIS...AND WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES IS ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON WHAT EXTENT THE LLVL WINDS TAKE ON A SLY WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW OPTED TO BLEND MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE GIVEN LACK OF A STG SIGNATURE TO PICK AND CHOOSE ONE MODEL OVR ANOTHER. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY... LGT PCPN AMTS EXPECTED IN ASOCTN WITH A SHRTWV TROF DROPPING SEWD FM CNTRL CANADA. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE ON AMTS HERE AND PREFERRED THE LGTR ETA GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ...E SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HI PLAINS... PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG THRU NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE GNLY LGT PCPN AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION AS UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS. MODELS VERY SIMILAR ON COVERAGE HERE WITH THE GFS A LITTLE HEAVIER ON AMTS. KORTY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 15/12Z 0.01 539212 539204 539193 536177 534169 530162 523150 519138 513126 505113 499102 492092 484084 480078 477072 471060 465050 461045 458042 453038 446035 437032 432028 427027 421026 417026 414029 407038 399046 396050 396055 397059 405065 408071 412076 416076 418068 422067 426071 433079 437084 436094 436103 438109 448114 453118 455123 456128 458131 461133 464132 469136 471141 483147 488152 491156 497170 502182 507195 509203 510209 511217 512230 509239 507249 506261 503273 504280 505282 513286 0.01 530961 529951 527946 524942 521939 512932 509928 505924 496923 491915 485902 483898 478896 475898 472896 476884 481873 484863 485855 487848 491837 492831 494821 493813 493808 490804 488800 484798 473801 468805 462806 454801 450800 445798 441787 438779 437772 438768 443768 452767 457764 457756 456750 453743 448738 443733 440728 439721 440715 442705 445703 448702 452703 459703 464699 466696 468690 465683 461674 459659 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