EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
WITH SOME HEAVIER CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE CAPE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED OVER THE
REGION...AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE WEST COAST THANKS TO TAIL END OF
SHORTWAVE OVER GA. 18Z MESOETA SUGGESTS S/W WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO
THE EAST AND NOT HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO DROP SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. FOR
THIS REASON...ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST
SECTIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. WILL WAIT ANOTHER HOUR OR SO TO
UPDATE ZONES AND CONSIDER KEEPING SMALL POPS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
MARINE...WINDS JUST N OF FLAGLER ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN S OF
FLAGLER. SHORT RANGE MDLS MESO-ETA/RUC SHOW PRES GRAD TO NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS TO THE S RETREATS AS SHRT
WVS RIPPLE THRU MID LEVEL FLOW. NO CHGS PLANNED FOR FCST.
KELLY/BLOTTMAN
FXUS62 KJAX 290109 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
843 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
CURRENTLY...WSR-88D SHOWS SEVERAL WKNG BANDS OF LGT-MDT SHOWERS ACRS
INTERIOR FL...WITH MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION FM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES OF CITRUS/LEVY COS AND IN A LINE ACRS THE CNTL COASTAL
WATERS. SE U.S. SATL LOOPS SHOW PULSING CONVECTION ACS SRN AND ERN
GA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO H50 S/W SLIDING SSE THRU THE AREA. A
MORE POTENT MCS WAS OVER SRN KY AND TN WITH TAIL MOVING QUICKLY INTO
ERN AL. THIS MCS ALSO CARRIES A FAIRLY DECENT H50 S/W WITH IT.
THE QUESTION OF THE EVENING IS HOW MUCH WILL THESE MCS'S AND ASSOCD
H50 S/W'S HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY DROP SSE IN THE MEAN FLOW?
AND...WILL DIURNAL TRENDS KEEP THEIR EFFECTS TO JUST CLDS...OR IS
ANOTHER FLARE-UP OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION PSBL?
TO ANSWER...I LIKE THE RUC/MESO ETA SOLN WHICH MAINTAINS THE SE GA
IMPULSE (WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE SYNOPTIC THAN MESOSCALE) WHILE
BLENDING THE CONVECTIVE TAIL OF THE IMPULSE IN AL WITH IT. BY DAWN
THE IMPULSE IS MORE STRUNG OUT IN A NE-SW CONFIGURATION AFFECTING
THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWFA.
SINCE THE ACTION FM THE SE GA IMPULSE IS RELEGATED TO MAINLY SHWRS
ATTM BLV THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT ACRS THE N. SFC FLOW IS
TURNING A BIT MORE SW ACRS THE NRN CWFA...AND THIS MAY ASSIST THE
IMPULSE IN PRODUCING A FEW TSTMS NEAR THE COAST TWDS DAWN.
FARTHER S...BLV MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIE BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT WITH
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLDS PREFER CONS CLDNS OVER PCLDY. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ZONE ISSUANCE UNTIL 930 BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR/SATL TRENDS WRT
MENTION OF PCPN ACRS THE S AND S CNTL ZONES.
PERSISTENCE TEMPS LOOK GOOD.
FOR TUE...CONTINUED MID LVL NW FLOW AND HIGH-LVL NNE FLOW ONE MORE
DAY WITH WK...GENLY SSW FLOW NEAR THE SFC. THE MID LVL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOVE GARBAGE CLDS INTO THE CWFA...SO PERHAPS A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON CLDS (PERSISTENCE AGAIN) FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
MARINE: SHOULD CONVECTION PERSIST OVERNIGHT IT'LL BE MAINLY OVER
THE GULF. SUGG "SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS" ENTR WATERS. WINDS N OF
TARPON WILL BE SW 10 KT OFFSHORE...5-10 KT NEAR SHORE. ELSW...S
WINDS 5-10 KT OFSHR AND VRBL NEARSHORE.
THERE IS HOPE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR MORE TROPICAL CONDS TO DVLP BY
LATE WK INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WKND. MRF IS FCSTG A BIG HEAT WAVE FOR
THE OHIO VLY AND ON TO THE ERN U.S...A RESULT OF BROAD WSW FLOW
AROUND STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...STRONG
BERMUDA HIGHS KEEP FL IN A "CLEAN" AIR MASS WITH MORE TOLERABLE
TEMPS AND SE TO E FLOW.
STAY TUNED.
ZONE UPDATES AVBL AROUND 930 PM.
GOLDSMITH
FXUS72 KMFL 290040 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
315 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
TODAYS MODEL RUN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON FINE SCALE FEATURE PLACEMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OVER FORECAST AREA.
THE RUC HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS DONE WELL WITH THE VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TAMPA FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...TODAYS RUC MODEL MINIMIZES PRECIP OUTPUT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT 12 HOURS AS VORT IMPULSES WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE SOUTHEAST IN MID LEVEL FLOW.
MEANWHILE THE ETA MODEL WAS SUPERIOR TO THE NGM INITIALIZING AND
PLACEMENT OF TROUGHS/VORT MAXES OVER THE MID AND SE U.S. DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WAS THE ABILITY OF ETA TO PICK UP ON THE
MCC/MCS CLUSTER OVER THE BAMA/GEORGIA BORDER SOUTHWARD TRECK DURING
THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS VERSUS THE NGM'S EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF
THE TSTM COMPLEX.
WILL UTILIZE COMBINATION OF RUC/ETA SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP FORECAST
FOR NEXT 48 HOURS. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN VORT MAXES AND ASSOCIATED PVA
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SUGGEST SCATTERED POPS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN CWA AND SHOWERS ENDING
BY MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO THINNING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER FORECAST AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUNSHINE OVER TBW FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. POPS RETURN TO
CLIMATIC NORMALS OF 40 PERCENT OR SO BY WEDNESDAY. PM MAXES SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 90S OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM...PLUS 48 HOURS...THE MRF CONTINUED TREND OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCHING NORTH TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH
A DECREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH HAVE OF FORECAST AREA FROM WED THROUGH FRIDAY.
ZALESKI
FXUS62 KTAE 281840 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
232 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
BASED ON THE 12Z JAX SOUNDING AND THE 12Z ETA AND 12Z RUC SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA ARE IN FOR A GOOD ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER WHICH TIME THE MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE 12Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE H20 OF
2.18 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH THE MCC WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST OF THE AREA RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING TUESDAY BUT WITH THE
INTERACTION OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD
JUSTIFY POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FWC POPS.
AMG 73/88/73/89 4322
SSI 74/87/74/87 4333
JAX 72/90/74/91 5322
GNV 73/90/71/90 4323 33
BLS
FXUS62 KJAX 281833 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
955 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED FROM VRB-SRQ-EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LINE. 500 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PVA FROM TLH SSW TO EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS PAINTED CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ADVECTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. 88D RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM
ACTIVITY ON THE INCREASE WEST OF PINELLAS COUNTY WITH CONSIDERABLE
WET MID-DECK FROM NORTH OF TPA-MLB LINE MOVING SOUTH.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HOWEVER
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY
CONSIDERING LATEST RUC MODEL PAINTED AN AREA OF NVA MOVING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...AC/CS
CLOUD CANOPY WILL MINIMIZE AFTERNOON HEATING OVER PENINSULA. ON THE
THE OTHER HAND...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG BAMA/GEORGIA BORDER MAY
HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON TRW DEVELOPMENT WITH OUTFLOW INTERACTION LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ZALESKI
FXUS62 KEYW 281302 fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
915 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
MCC MOVING EAST ALONG GA/TN BORDER AROUND 30KT. SATELLITE ESTIMATES
OF 1-2 INCH PER HOUR, BUT IR SHOWS TOPS WARMING. THUS AMOUNTTS
PROBABLY LESS. WILL INCLUDE STATEMENT IN UPDATE TO EFFECT RAINFALL
LOCALLT HEAVY AT TIMES. 21Z RUC CARRIES MCC DUE EAST. ETA BRINGS
ANOTHER WEAKER VORT INTO GA FROM TN AROUND 12Z. THUS WHILE COULD SAY
DIMINISHG AFTER MIDNITE WITH ANOTHER WEAKER ROUND NEAR SUNRISE...
WILL JUST KEEP HI POPS N AND DIMINISH S AS MCC THERE CONTINUES S AND
WEAKENS. WITH RAIN N THINK MORNIGN CLOUDS AND FOG STATEMENT IN ZONES
LOOK LIKE GOOD BET. PATCHY F SOUTH. NO CLEAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AT
SURFACE...BUT SEE TROF OVER E AL AND LEE SIDE TROF E APPALACHAINS.
FORECAST LOWS LOOK OK.
.ATL...NONE.
FXUS72 KFFC 282020 ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
956 AM EST MON JUN 28 1999
14Z SFC MAP SHOWS TEMPS WARMING QUITE QUICKLY ACRS FA WITH MOST
LOCALES NR 80. VRY HUMID AS WELL WITH TDS IN LOW 70S. LAPS DATA
SHOWING CONDITIONS ALREADY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AOA 2K J/KG AND
LIS AS LOW AS -6. WITH SFC FRONT WELL WEST ACRS W IL AND IMPLIED
WAVE ALNG FRONT NR MMO WILL NEED TO WATCH NE IL INTO NW IN/SW MI
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LTR THIS PM. DO NOT XPC FRONT TO MOVE MUCH
AT ALL UNTIL SW TROF INTO MN/IA THIS HR CATCHES UP LTR THIS PM.
STILL THINK AREA UNDER GUN WITH 115KT JET MAX SEEN ON SLATER
PROFILER AT 14Z AND MID LVL SPEED MAX PROGGED TO PUSH OUT THIS
EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION OF UPR JET PUTS AREA UNDER FVRBL RR QUAD BY
LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING. PWATS STILL QUITE HIGH
WITH MODIFIED 12Z RUC SNDG SHOWING VALUES NR 1.5 SO HVY RAIN POSSIBLE
BUT PROBABLY NOT PROBLEMATIC AS MEAN STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS
MOVING. WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS/TEMPS HIGHER.
.IWX...NONE
TEH
FXUS63 KIWX 280933 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
429 AM EST MON JUN 28 1999
MODELS NOW FINALLY SIMILAR WITH OVERALL SOLN. HAVE GIVEN BTR WEIGHT
TO ETA FOR CONSISTENCY AND BTR LWLVL RESOLN. EPAC-SWRN US HGHTS RISE
AND SVRL S/WVS CARVE OUT TROF ACRS ERN GRTLKS BY DY2. STRONGEST
WAVE WELL-HANDLED BY ETA AND VERIFIED WITH LTST RUC SHOWS MID-LVL
SPEED MAX ACRS NERN NE TREKING DUE E TO WRN EDGE OF FA ARND F24.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SBCAPES TO 2K SWEAT APRCH 250 INCRSG LWLVL
FGEN FORCING INTO 350+K 950MB THETAE AIR WITH AXIS FM SPI-FWA-TOL
PWAT 1.6-1.7 AT 28/00Z SUGGEST LKLY TSRA LT AFTN/EVE DVLPG. PER
SWODY1 AND INCRSD MIDLVL WRLYS TO 40KT WARRANT SLGT CHC FOR SVR WND
THREAT PRIMARILY ACRS ERN HALF FA AS SPEED MAX CATCHES UP TO
ORGANIZING CONVECTION. WL HIGHLIGHT IN SVR WX OUTLOOK BUT HOLD ON
HIGHLIGHTED ZONE WORDING DUE TO APPARENT ISOLD THREAT. TSECT SUGGESTS
TIMING ARND 21-23Z SBN 23-01Z OH ZNS. FNTL BNDRY BECOMES MORE E-W
ORIENTED THROUGH LWR GRTLKS TODAY AND FCST CELL MOTION NR 250-260
DEGREES/LT 20 KTS INITIALLY SO CONCERN REMAINS WITH PSBL TRAINING/HI
RATE/DURATION RAFL.
CURRENT 88D SHOWING WDLY SCT SHRA ACRS NRN AND SWRN FA. LDS NIL AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH LTG. WL BREAK OUT SOME ZONES FOR SCT AM
SHRA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GUID XCPT DY2 A FEW COOLER WITH 8H TEMPS NR
10C BEHIND FROPA AND DEEP NWRLY FLOW.
SBN TB 084/064 076/056 078 15660
FWA TB 085/065 077/057 078 15670
AOH TB 085/067 078/057 079 15670
.IWX...NONE
UPDATE TO ADD CCF
MURPHY
FXUS73 KIND 280853 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
845 PM CDT MON JUN 28 1999
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW IF ANY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING. AS OF 01Z...COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR A FSM...MLC...ADM
LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE
SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF MCCURTAIN
COUNTY...OR JUST NORTHWEST OF FA. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z RUC...BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL HELP TO PUSH FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS
ALONG THE RED RIVER BEFORE PULLING UP STATIONARY. CURRENT FCST HAS
LOW POPS ALONG RED RIVER IN NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR...THIS LOOK OK.
FURTHER SOUTH...COULD PROBABLY TAKE POPS OUT ACROSS N LA AS DO NOT
FEEL LIKE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH BEFORE LOW LEVEL
JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS LOOK GOOD ALL AROUND EXCEPT AGREE WITH
FTW ABOUT RAISING NE TX MINS A CAT TNGT.
13
FXUS64 KLCH 290111 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1050 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER
TRIPLE POINT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE ENE...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 09Z
RUC LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE 500MB VORT MAX. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS
BEEN FEEDING ENERGY FOR SHOWERS DEPICTED ON RADAR OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. KDLH/KMQT 88-D LOOPS INDICATED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ENTERING GOGEBIC COUNTY BY 14Z.
LDS INDICATES A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT
THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN OUR CWA. 03Z MESOETA BRINGS UP
TO 300 J/KG OF CAPE INTO FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. 09Z RUC
CALLS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER LIS TO CLIMB UP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERING THESE AREAS WILL CLOUD OVER IN AN HOUR OR TWO
AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...SOLAR HEATING WILL BE KEPT
TO A MINIMUM.
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFRESH WORDING ON MORNING/AFTERNOON PRECIP
TIMING. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH LATEST
METARS AND 14Z LAMP SO LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE NECESSARY.
.MQT...NONE.
JHB
FXUS63 KMQT 280846 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
830 PM MDT MON JUN 28 1999
SOME UPDATING IN ORDER DUE MAINLY TO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW
THAT HAS KICKED UP SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. ODDLY ENOUGH...THE RUC RUN FOR
29/00Z DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THUS FAR ON RADAR...THE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE SHOWERS ONLY. GOING SET COVERS THIS WELL.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM AS
TWEAKING THE STORM RELATIVE VELOCITY MAP ON RADAR POINTS OUT. WILL
MENTION THIS AS WELL IN THE UPDATES.
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER AIR FEATURE MOVES ON.
KNOWING THAT LOWS LAST NIGHT WENT A BIT LOWER THAN WAS LOOKING
AT...BELIEVE WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THEY ARE...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
A TAD IN MOST CASES IS ADVISABLE.
POPS LOOK REASONABLE.
THE RUC RUN FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL. WILL
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS PER THIS MODEL. CHB
BIL BB 046/075 052/072 051 522333
LVM .. 044/072 049/070 ... 523333
HDN .. 045/076 051/073 ... 522333
MLS .. 050/077 052/074 ... 522333
4BQ .. 049/078 053/075 ... 522333
BHK .. 048/075 050/072 ... 522333
SHR BB 043/074 048/072 048 522333
FXUS65 KTFX 282050 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
937 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
BULK OF SHRA AND TSRA NOW EXITING WRN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS BUT
RADARS SHOW MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY UPSTREAM ACROSS NW PA. SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FRM MCS MOVING INTO ERN OH AND WRN PA ATTM.
MID LVL FLW MAY ADVECT THIS ACROSS SRN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND WITH
SERIES OF WK SHORT WAVES DEPICTED ON MESO ETA AND RUC PROG TO CROSS
THIS REGION OVERNIGHT SCATTERED ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
WILL RIDE WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NRN ZONES BUT BUMP POPS UP
SLIGHTLY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES.
.BGM...NONE.
RRM
FXUS61 KALY 290114 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
RADARS INFINITELY QUIETER THAN I EXPECTED YDY AS SUBTLE VORTMAX CAME
ACROSS MUCH ERLYR THAN EXPECTED WITH MDL FCSTS NEVER SPECIFICALLY
SEEING IT. DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAFL IN THE 1-2" RANGE FM WY VALLEY...SRN
TIER AND INTO THE SRN CATSKILLS VRY ERLY THIS AM. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS SOCKED IN TDY AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INCRS THE INSTABILITY
WITH CAPES TO 1500 AND LI'S ROUGHLY -4. NOT GOING TO TAKE MUCH TO
REDEVELOP SHRA/TSRA TAFTN...HOWEVER WITH MIDLVL LAPSE RATES NOT
IMPRESSIVE AND STILL SOME CIN ON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AUTOCONVECTION
NOT LIKELY AND A DYNAMIC TRIGGER NEEDED WHICH IS HARD TO FIND FOR
MUCH OF CWA. MDLS STILL HAVE A LOT OF NOISE IN THIS SWLY FLOW PTTRN
WITH VMAXES...CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA FIELDS JUMPING AROUND. 09Z RUC
DOES SEEM TO HV A HANDLE ON A S/WV PRODUCING TSRA IN WV WHICH IN
TURN ZIPS NE INTO PA AND SE NY BY LATE AFTN. A LOBE OF PVA MAY ALSO
BE EXTENDING NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH SHRA NR KBFD WITH AN H8 TROF
IN THE VCNTY AS WELL. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLDS SRN AREAS AS WELL FOR
ENHANCED INSTAB ALTHO ALL WL RAPIDLY FILL IN. WL GENLY CONTINUE
MODEST RAFL CHANCES ALL AREAS TAFTN ALTHO EXPECT SRN TIER...NE PA
POCONOS AND SRN CATS WL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AS WAVE COMES THRU. SCT
POSSIBILITIES FURTHER NORTH. ANYTHING THAT GOES WILL BE TORRENTIAL
CONSIDERING PW'S ABOUT 2".
NEED TO UPGRADE SKY TO M/CLDY OTHERWISE TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO FCST
MACROS CONSIDERING CLDS AND HUMIDITY. COLD FRONT POISED OVER GTLKS
BRINGS MORE PROMISE FOR TUES ALTHO LOOKS LIKE IT'S DRIVING JETSTREAK
SHEARS NORTH AND IT MAY ONLY COME THRU WITH A WHIMPER.
.BGM...NONE.
BREWSTER
FXUS61 KBUF 281418 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
SFC DWPNTS OF 70F OR HIR ALG MUCH OF E CST TO CYMX VCNTY AT 13Z. MDT
PTN OF DIST HAS H8 THETA-E VALUES AOB 340 MESH THAT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON AREA SOUNDINGS OF 2 IN PLUS AND WHAT BRKS WERE IN THE CLDS
NR KELM...KUCA AND KINGSTON FILLED IN RELATIVELY QUICKLY. CDFNT ACRS
ONTARIO INTO SRN MI AND NRN IL WITH WIDE AREA OF CYC FLOW ARND CNDN
LOW. RUC PORTRAYS WK PVA CLOSING IN ACRS DIST. RGNL RADAR LOOP
DEPICTS SOME CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE NR KBFD. SOUNDINGS
ALSO POINT TO STORM MOTION IN THE 10-20 KT NEIGHBORHOOD...THUS SOME
LOCATIONS COULD BE BOUND FOR USEFUL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. COULD BE
LCL UNDERPASS PONDING SITUATIONS...BUT THINK THAT IS NOWCAST
MATERIAL. WITH AMOUNT OF CLDS...THINK SOME ZONES CAN BE COMBINED...
OTRW TROPICAL-STYLE HUMIDITY TIL CDFNT GETS THRU TUESDAY.
MCKINLEY/RCK
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.
ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1030 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
SOUPY AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER AREA THIS MORNING WITH INLAND STRATUS
THICKER THAN ON SU. INLAND. 12Z SOUNDING MORE MOIST IN MID LEVELS SO
STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO BREAK UP. WILL WORD INLAND ZONES AS
BECOMING PT SUNNY. A FEW SHOWERS OVER SRN SECTIONS BUT MORE
CONCERNED ABOUT ACTIVITY OFF SC COAST WHICH MAY ADVECT N LATER THIS
AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY ASSCTD WITH WEAK SHRT WV PER LATEST RUC.
APPEARS BEST CHANCES WILL BE COASTAL ZONES AND WILL TWEAK POPS TO 40
THERE AND LOWER TO 30 INLAND. TEMPS GENERALLY OK.
CWF: WINDS STILL MAINLY AROUND 15 KTS BUT GRADIENT EXPTECTED TO
TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND WILL CONT FCST AS IS.
.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS.
JBM
FXUS72 KRAH 281359 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
DISSIPATING SHOWERS MOVED OFF THE HEW HANOVER COUNTY AND PENDER
COASTS THIS MORNING AND A LONE RANGER SHOWER HAS DIED OVER SOUTHERN
HORRY COUNTY. DON'T EXPECT ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM CHS 12Z SOUNDING ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
IN INDICATING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE COAST. MSAS SHOWS
THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DESTABLILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST RUC SHOWS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SW FLOW AT 500 MB WHICH SLOWLY
MAKES IT WAY OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD AID IN SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE (OR RESULTANT WIND) BOUNDARY. WHICH
AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RAIN DEPENDS ON THE INLAND PROGRESSION
OF THE SEABREEZE. YESTERDAY IT MOVED INLAND ENOUGH TO KEEP NEW
HANOVER AND MOST OF BRUNSWICK AND PENDER COUNTIES DRY ALTHOUGH IT
HUGGED THE COAST IN HORRY AND GEORGETOWN. WITH SIMILAR SWLY SFC FLOW
EXPECTED TODAY THIS SCENARIO COULD PLAY OUT AGAIN. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANYTHING DEVELOPS AS IT MOVES INLAND THRU THESE
COUNTIES...THEREFORE IS IT WORTH DROPPING POPS? WILL ROLL THE DICE
AND SPLIT THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT THE NC/SC BORDER AND LOWER POPS A
TAD ON THE NC SIDE. TEMPS LOOK OK BASED ON 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
FROM 12Z RAOBS. BELIEVE ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CWF...SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY DATA FROM FPSN7
AND 41004 INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS ARE WITHIN CURRENT FCST. SEE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD REQUIRE
ANY CHANGES.
.ILM...NONE.
MORGAN
nc
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CDT MON JUN 28 1999
RADAR AND MESONET DATA SHOW THAT COLD FRONT HAD REACHED A VAN BUREN
TO MCALESTER LINE BY 9 PM. 00Z RUC SHOWS FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS UNTIL IT HANGS UP ALONG THE RED RIVER AROUND 12Z.
HOWEVER...FRONT COULD ALSO BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAINS. RADAR IS SHOWING CURRENT TSRA ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MLC
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW VOLUME SCANS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IN 30
POPS IN FAR SE OK THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...AND WHAT THE 00Z RUC SHOWS AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL ELIMINATE OVERNIGHT POPS NORTH OF I-40 AND
TWEAK WINDS A BIT. CURRENT TEMP FCST RANGING FROM UPR 60S-MID 70S
LOOKS GOOD. UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD BE OUT AROUND 935 PM.
18Z ETA SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON TUE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACRS KS/NE...THOUGH THIS SETUP COULD SKIRT THE
NRN ZNS AROUND MID-DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE. OTRW...HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SRN ZNS ON TUE
LOOKS GOOD TOO. COULD BE ANOTHER MCS TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS POSSIBILITY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
22
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KOUN 282036 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1020 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
SAT PICS INDICATE CLOUDS FILLING IN RAPIDLY ACROSS CWA ATTM. LATEST
RUC MODEL RUN BRINGS VORT MAX TO CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
HIGH TD/S THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT SHOWERS
ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP IN WESTERN PA WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF MAX
DAYTIME HEATING...BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THROUGHOUT MOST OF CWA. HAVE RAISED
POP/S TO CATEGORICAL IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE THEY WILL BE RAISED TO 50 POP. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT COULD PRODUCE GOOD RAINS
WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE WHICH RUC IS HANDLING
VERY WELL COMPARED TO AVN/NGM/ETA. SCA HAS BEEN RAISED ON THE OCEAN
FRONT (SANDY HOOK TO FENWICK IS) AND IN THE LOWER DE BAY. HAVE ALSO
RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY IN THE INLAND ZONES.
WRKZFP ALREADY OUT.
.PHI...SCA SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE AND THE LOWER DE BAY.
JJM
FXUS61 KPBZ 281404 pa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
KGSP RADAR SHOWS TSRA STILL PULSING OVER NC PIEDMONT...MEANWHILE
DECAYING MCS LOOMS JUST OVER THE HORIZON IN ERN TN. OBVIOUSLY...PRECIP
CHANCES NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN IS ON
THE DOORSTEP OF WRN NC. 21Z RUC SHOWS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE OH
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE ENUF OF AN IMPETUS TO GET THE PRECIP INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR E WILL IT MOVE. THE MAIN WORRY IS
THAT THE MCS REMNANTS WILL STALL AND RAIN OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNITE...DUMPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. UPPER FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN
QUITE WEAK E OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOPEFULLY...LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 20 TO 30
KTS AT 850/700 WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS MOVING AS THEY WEAKEN FURTHER.
WILL CONSIDER SPLITTING THE ZONES TO GO CATEGORICAL IN SOME PLACES...
BUT LIKELY POPS AT MINIMUM IN THE MOUNTAINS.
.GSP...NONE.
MOORE
FXUS62 KCHS 290105 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1014 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE GIVING PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. VORT MAX OVER THE GA/AL BORDER MOVING SOUTHEAST TO CROSS GA
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC HAS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING
PVA ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS PLENTY MOIST AND
STILL UNSTABLE. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
CNTRL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA..OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
.CAE...NONE.
LM
FXUS62 KGSP 281407 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
WEAKENING MESOSCALE SYSTEM IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA PUSHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. POSSIBLE THAT WEAK...UNANALYZED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES FROM DYING CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL WANDER
AIMLESSLY ACROSS OUR CWFA TODAY...READY TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS
OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMB. OTHER FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING
INCLUDE THE ANTICIPATED LEE TROF ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST CWFA...
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROF IN EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH ANOTHER SEPARATE
AREA OF CONVECTION AND AREA OF DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR LOOP SINKING
SOUTH AND SLIDING EASTWARD ON BACK OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
UPR AIR ANAYLSES AND KGSP 88-D INDICATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT OF CWFA AT PRESENT AND THIS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL VERY LATE IN AFTN. INDEED...VISIBILE
PICTURES SHOW SKIES CLEARING RAPIDLY EAST OF MTNS. AREA SOUNDINGS
VERY UNSTABLE BY LATE TDY...WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG AND LI/S OF
-5 TO -7. 70H TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND +8 NOW...SO WE MAY SEE
MOSTLY POTENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVETIVE TEMPS
LUK TO BE AROUND 85 OR SO. 09Z RUC TAKES MESOSCALE VORT CENTER IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VERY CLOSE TO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
WEAK DPVA AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH EAST TENNESSEE BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS
MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP 40 POPS IN AFTERNOON UPDATE.
SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY TODAY. THICKNESS SCHEME
SUPPORTS 90 TO 95 IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA/UPSTATE SO WILL RAISE MAXES
THERE.
.GSP...NONE.
BURRUS
FXUS62 KCHS 281356 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
956 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
12Z CHS SOUNDING ABT AS LOADED AS CAN BE WITH MOISTURE (PWAT 2.1...
LI -3...KI 38...TT 46) BUT W/O ENUF INSOLATION...IT MAY GO TO WASTE.
ALL 3 MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO...09Z RUC2 SHOWS NO SIG
DIFFERENCES. A S/WV OVER NW GA WL MOVE SE THIS AFT...EHANCING PCPN
CHCS ESP OVER SE GA. ANOTHER S/WV IN SRN IL EARLY THIS AM WL TRY TO
COME THRU TNGT. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF S/WV'S...AS WUD BE EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF PTN. NONETHELESS...WL
NOT MAKE MANY CHGS THIS PKG. 50 POPS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR SRN SC
THIS AFT...AND SEE NO REASON TO TAKE DOWN THE 60 POPS FOR SE GA. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OUT THERE...BLV THERE WL BE SUM HEAVY RAINERS
WITH LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES PSBL IN AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT LTST
VIS/IR IMGRY...AM PLANNING VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR SRN SC...AND M/CLDY
FOR SE GA. WITH THAT IN MIND...WL CUT HI TEMPS THIS AFT TO NR 90
INLAND AND 85-90 CST.
CWF...AFTER OVERNIGHT SURGING...SW FLOW TAKING A MORNING BREATHER
BEFORE AFTN MIXING AND TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRES GRADIENT (PER 09Z
RUC2) TAKE HOLD. WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM CURRENT 15 KT TO 20 KT THIS
AFTN AND MAINTAIN SEAS FCST.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
TJR/RVT
FXUS62 KCHS 281050 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
845 CDT MON JUN 28 1999
LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MOST OF THE DAYTIME CU/SC HAS DISSIPATED. MAIN
CONCERN FOR CLEAR FORECAST IS FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS STREAMING EAST IN
80-90KT JET ACROSS SD. SEEMS TO BE THINNING A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...BUT WILL GO WITH MORE OF A PTLY CLOUDY WORDING
IN THE UPDATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE 00Z/29 RUC
SHOWS GREATER 300MB RH VALUES FORECAST THROUGH 09Z. WINDS BEGINNING
TO COME DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN...SO WILL CLEAN UP TREND WORDING
THERE SOME AS WELL. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 50S AND AT LEAST THIN CIRRUS ANTICIPATED IN MANY AREAS.
.FSD...NONE
HAMEN
FXUS63 KABR 290122 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 PM CDT MON JUN 28 1999
LATEST RUC MDL SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING SE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS IT DOES...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE S ACROSS ALL OF
THE CWA. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING SOME CLOUDS.
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
.ABR...NONE
MOHR
FXUS63 KUNR 282049 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1037 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AIDED FNTL BNDRY CONTINUES TO ROLL SWD THRU
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. PRES RISES OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR BHD IT AT 15Z
PROMISES A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOVEMENT INTO THE AFTN. 12Z RUC
INDICATES FNT WILL PUSH INTO PB THIS AFTN AND TEND TO AGREE. WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR...CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTN AND SFC-850 MB
MSTR CONVERGENCE INCREASING ALG BNDRY WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC TSRA
FURTHER SWD IN UPDATE. WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK...
THEREFORE XPC ANY TSRA THAT DO DVLP TO RMN UNORGAINIZED AND
SHORT/LIVED.
WILL REMOVE MORNING LOW CLDS...UPDATE WINDS IN AT LEAST NRN THREE
TIERS OF COUNTIES FOR ONSET OF FNT AND LEAVE TEMPS AS IS.
AKL
FXUS64 KSJT 281527 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999
MCS OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING GAVE EXTRA PUSH TO COLD FRONT...
MAKING GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK AT 15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING IN SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT
FROM EAST OF LUBBOCK TO CHILDRESS.
IN WRKSJ1 PUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BIG
COUNTRY AREA...AS RUC INDICATED FRONT TO BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
CWA AT 00Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE...REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
04
FXUS74 KFWD 281507 AMD tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
DSCN:
MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR TSRA'S ARE THERE TDY. S/W MOVG ACROSS
WVA ATTM PROGGED TO CUT ACROSS NRN VA INTO SRN PA...WHILE A SECOND
BUT WEAKER S/W CUTS ACROSS SE VA ERLY THIS AFTRN. RUC/MESOETA EVEN
HINTING AT NVA OVR SRN VA LATE THIS AFTRN. BUT WITH PW'S APPRCHG 2
IN...LI'S BLO ZERO ...PLNTY OF LL MSTR & AFTRN HTNG...CAN'T RULE
OUT A POP ANYWHERE. WELCOME TO SUMMER IN VIRGINIA. 12Z SNDGS RTHR
TRPLCL. THUS...SOME HVY RAINERS PSBL...WHERE THEY OCCUR.
MORNING CLOUDS SHUD LIFT & BCM YOUR TYPICAL AFTRN CU. WILL GO WITH
PT SUNNY. BEST CHANCE AND HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN & WRN
CNTYS...CLOSER TO S/W NRGY. AFTR 21Z CLOSER TO THE CST. LWR POPS TO
THE S. HIGHS APPRCHG 90 WITH HEAT INDEX ARND 100. PRS GRAD ALONG CST
PUSHING WNDS NR 20 KT ATTM. WILL CONT BREEZY CNDTNS THERE.
CWF...MARINE FCSTR WILL RAISE SCA FLAGS FOR SEAS OVR NRN WTRS.
WNDS ARND 20 KTS XPCTD TO RAISE SEAS TO 5 FT.
.AKQ...SCA FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.
44
va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999
FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON PCPN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WI/NORTHERN IL. DRIER AIR
HAS DIPPED SOUTH IN TO AREA WITH DEW POINT SPREAD VARYING FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTHWEST. PERSISTENT
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ONEIDA COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX LIFTING
NORTH. THESE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED LAST FEW SCANS. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.
FOCUS OF FORECAST TURNS TO ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. TONIGHTS MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER
WITH STRONG WESTERLIES OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN US. SEVERAL WAVES TO
PROGRESS THROUGH FLOW WITH EACH MODEL BEING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH
THEIR MOVEMENT OF THE ENERGY. HAVE BASED FORECAST MORE ON SHORT TERM RUC
AND MESO ETA AS THEY TEND TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF PCPN FIELDS AT 06Z.
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY MESO ETA SHOWING LI'S EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -2...WILL ADD
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
.GRB...NONE.
TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB
FXUS63 KMKX 280851 wi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
300 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
A FRONT OVR NW INDIANA THIS MRNG WL MOV ACRS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVENG. HOWEVER NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WL BE WITH THE
FNT.
A LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS TDY. THE RUC SHOWS THE VORT MAX NOW IN WV
WORKING ON THIS TROF TO DEVELOP SHWRS AND TSTMS ALG IT BY MID MRNG.
CURRENTLY HAVE A DECENT AMT OF PRECIP BACK IN WV WITH THIS TROF.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE WINDS AT 85H TURNING W TO NW AND INCRG TO 20 KT
AFTER LEESIDE TROF PASSES THE W LATE THIS MRNG. THIS USUALLY KILLS
ANY CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MTNS AND WITH NO GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER ALSO SUPPORTING THE TROF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WL BE SOME DIVG
ALFT OVR THE NE PART FA THIS AFTN. ALSO LOOKED AT QN FORCING AND
FRONTAL FORCING AND THAT KEYS ON NE PART OF AREA. WL GO HIGHEST POPS
THERE. FARTHER W EMPHAZIE MAINLY MRNG PRECIP AND LOWER POPS.
LOOKING AT LAMP DATA ALSO SHOWS THIS TROF MOVG THRU CNTRL PART FA
ARND IAD NEAR 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO W AND DEWPOINTS DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S.
WL GO CLOSE TO FWC TEMPS AS IT SHD BE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH SOME
SUNSHINE AND 85H TEMPS ARND 18C ALSO THE W FLOW WL HELP THE HEAT.
FOR TNGT SKIES SHD ATLEAST GET PARTLY CLDY. ON WED MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN FM THE S AND NGM ACTUALLY TRIES TO GIVE OUT PRECIP OVR
MOST OF FA. FOR NOW WL CONFINE IT TO THE SRN PART FA BUT SHD SEE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN TO AREA BY WED NGT. WITH FNT NOT FAR N OF
FA THRU THE EXTENDED AND VARIOUS IMPULSES ALG THE FNT WL PUT CHC IN
MOST PDS IN EXTENDED.
.LWX...NONE.
JAB
FXUS61 KLWX 290152 COR md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1110 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999
CURRENT STLT LOOP SHOWING AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM CONVECTION OVER
WISCONSIN. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WISCONSIN SHOWING BKN-OVC
CLOUDS BETWEEN 7000 FT AND 10000 FT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT SURFACE CHART SHOWING NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST RUC SHOWING 850 DEW PTS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY OVER ERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND STRAITS AREA... WITH 10C TO 12C STILL PROGGED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND
SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS FORECAST UNDER 10 MPH... EXPECT LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE HURON SOUTH OF APN. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LAKE HURON TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.
THIS COULD SUPPLY ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
STABLE ENOUGH FOR GENERAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KDTX 281505 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
ETA AND NGM SIMILIAR IN UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL FEATURES WHILE AVN
SEEMS TO SMOOTH THE UPPER LVL SHRTWVS PROGGED BY THE ETA/NGM. FOLLOWED
AN ETA/NGM SOLN AND LEANED TOWARD THE ETA IN A COUPLE AREAS. NGM
APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING RETURN AND STRENGTH OF SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH
AMPLITUDE OF THERMAL RIDGE PROGGED TO MOVE E ACROSS THE CWFA TDY
INTO TNGT. 00Z RUC HINTS THAT FIRST IMPULSE WL BE FURTHER S THIS
MRNG WITH A SECOND IMPULSE INDICATED BY THE ETA/NGM TO AFFECT THE REST
OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE NGT. CAPES VALUED FM 400 J/KG TO
1000 J/KG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SO TSTMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WOULD NOT BE SURPISED TO SEE INITIAL PCPN MALF IN
WRN CWFA AROUND NOON TIL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS MORE TIME TO FEED INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVE. WITH SOME CONCERNS THAT PCPN
AMTS BY NGM/ETA MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THE FIRST PRD...WL KEEP POPS BLO
MOS FOR THE FIRST PRD. PLENTY OF HIGH TO MID LVL CLDS ON THE IR
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT CIRRUS TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS FM REACHING FULL POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TDY A NOTCH OR
TWO FM PRVS FCST.
FOR THIRD PRD INTO THE EXTENDED...A LITTLE MORE TRICKY IN DEALING
WITH CHC OF PCPN AS TIMING OF SHRTWVS IN THE MDLS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER 00Z AVN AND MRF INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSTMS THU SO ADDED A CHC OF TSTMS AND TWEAKED TEMPS THU WITH
REMAINING EXTENDED FCST LEFT UNCHANGED.
.FSD...NONE
BR
FXUS63 KABR 290759 sd
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
900 AM PDT TUE JUN 29 1999
PROBLEMS OF THE DAY...FLUCTUATIONS IN MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
GRADIENT.
WILL UPDATE AT AROUND 930 AM TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...VISIBILITIES WERE INCREASING ALONG THE SLO/SBA
COUNTY COASTS AND NPW WILL EXPIRE AT 915 AM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
PROFILER DATA...THE MARINE LAYER WAS APPROX 1300 FEET DEEP NEAR LAX.
THE MARINE LAYER DID INDEED MAKE INTO THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING KBUR AND
KVNY AND STRONG INVERSION PLUS HEALTHY ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
LEAD TO A SLOW CLEARING PROCESS IN COASTAL SECTIONS.
WATER VAPOR PIX SHOWING SOME DEBRIS CLOUD FROM AN MCS OVER NORTHERN
SONORA DRIFTING BY TO OUR SOUTH. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SOME
AFTN CU OVR THE MTNS BUT RUC MODEL INDICATING VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVBL FOR THIS CWA.
FOR THE 12 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD...8H TEMPS, 5H HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU WED....TODAY THE 5H HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A
SKOSH. LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE IN COASTAL AREAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...CLEARING BACK TO THE COASTLINE IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH IN COASTAL SXNS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF COASTAL CLOUDS...HOWEVER...HIGHER EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY WITH MARINE LAYER GETTING
SQUASHED SLIGHTLY BY WARM SUBSIDENCE.
FOR THE EXTENDED...MRF AND ECMWF AGREE THAT UPR RIDGE WL HOLD STRONG
THROUGH THU WITH HIGH HGTS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTG. AS UPR
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACRS THE PAC NW FRI AND SAT HEIGHTS ACRS SRN CA WILL
SLWOLY LOWER AND XPCT SOME GRADUAL COOLING BY SAT.
LAX 000. SWEET.
.LAX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWLAX.
FXUS66 KSGX 291554 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
THE COMPLEX OFF ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND SEEMS TO BE GOING ALONG THE THE RUC SOLUTION WHICH
MOVES IT OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONFLICT BETWEEN THE MESO ETA AND THE RUC WITH THE MESO ETA
MOVING A SECOND VORT CENTER OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AGAIN TODAY WITH THE PRECIPITABLE H2O AROUND 1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
BLS
FXUS72 KMFL 291350 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
LATEST SFC ANALYS SHOWS SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA NEAR KDNS
WITH LLVL N/NWLY FLO PRVLG OVR CWA. VERY REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH
DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. 12Z UA ANALYS REVEALS H85 RDG AXIS
EXTENDG FM MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO EASTERN KANSAS.
NATIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWG PCPN OVR DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA IN VCNTY OF H7
TROF AND BAROCLINIC ZN/WAA. 12Z OMAHA SOUNDG (K0AX) SHOWS LARGE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SO MUCH OF PCPN NOT REACHING GRND THOUGH
LATEST SFC OBS REVEAL SOME RAIN REACHING GRND OVR PTNS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA. 12Z RUC BRINGS SOME LGT PCPN INTO SCNTRL IOWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN LOCATION OF HIGH/STRENGTH OF
DRY AIRMASS. RETURN FLOW PROGGED NOT TO BEGIN OVR CWA UNTIL TNGT.
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD DVLPG OVR MUCH OF NRN HALF OF CWA WITH 12Z KDVN
SHOWG SOME LLVL MOISTURE THRU 3000 FT. MID/HIGH LVL CLDS SURGING
RAPIDLY E ON HEELS OF H5-H3 JET OF 50-70 KTS NOSING INTO CNTRL IOWA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH ALL BEING SAID WILL ADJUST SKY
WORDING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO EITHER PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPS APPEAR OK AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
05
FXUS63 KDVN 290805 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1046 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
...UPDATE FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY STRONG CAA OCCURRING OVER LWR MI AS DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE NE AWAY FROM MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS AT 12Z FALL
FROM 12C AT DTX TO 3C AT APX. WITH STRONG CYCLONICLY CURVED WINDS
FLOW AROUND L0W...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 780 MB AND 70-80 PCT RH
BELOW INVERSION THIS MORNING NO SUPRISE VIS IMAGE LOOPS SHWS CU CLD
STREETS. MODELS DO SUGGEST WINDS WILL BECOME ANTICYCL THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAA WILL END. LOWER LAYERS WILL DRY SOME (925 MB RH
FALLS FROM NEAR 80 PCT TO AROUND 65 PCT) BUT 850 STAYS WITH RH
AROUND 70 PCT. SO... WHILE CU/SC TYPE CLDS WILL DECREASE WITH
TIME... ENOUGH INSTABLITY BELOW INVERSION... EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOMING ANTICYC.. TO HAVE SOME CU AROUND. THUS... WILL FCST
PARTLY SUNNY TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70... RUC AND ETA SHOW 850 TEMPS BTWN 6-8C OVER
CWA BY 21Z.... SO HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70. WITH ENOUGH CLDS
AROUND.. MAY NOT EVEN GET TO THAT TEMPERATURE.
BOTTOM LINE FORECAST... PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 70.
WDM
FXUS63 KDTX 291450 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
NO MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THIS UPDATE... JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS AND CLD WORDING.
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CD FNT APRCHG THE OHIO RIVER AS BRISK NW WNDS
CONT TO PUCH MUCH COLR...DRIER AIR ACRS THE RGN. STRONG Q-VEC DVRGNC
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR LVL S/WV RAPIDLY CLRD SKIES
THIS MORG. DESPITE MUCH LWR DWPTS...CU IS FAIRLY ABUNDANT THIS MORG
THE RESULT OF MSTR FM YESTERDAY/S RAFL AND POCKET OF COOL AIR. WL
HAVE A MIX OF CLDS AND SUN THRU THE ZONES.
TEMPS A LTL SLOW TO CLIMB W/ LOW LVL CAA AND WNDS OFF THE FOR THE
NRN SHORE RESIDENTS. HOWEVER...12Z RUC SHOWS SOME WARMER AIR
RETURNING TO WRN SXNS BY LATE AFTN...AND THEY CD GET A CPL DEG BUMP
AS A RESULT. WL KEEP SLIGHTLY WRMR TEMPS IN WRN AND SRN CNTYS.
ERLY MORG IR PICS SHOWED HIGH CLDS RACING TWD THE FA AHD OF NEXT SYS
SO TOYED W/ IDEA OF CHANGING CLD WORDING TNT. HOWEVER..LEADING EDGE
OF CLDS CONTS TO THIN IN DRY AIR OVR MN/WI. 12Z RUC AND PEEK AT THE
NEW ETA INDICATE MOST PLENTIFUL UPR LVL MSTR AND LIFTING MECHANISMS
REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE YOOP THRU 00Z. WL LEAVE WRDG AS IS AND
LET AFTN FCSTR TAKE A LONGER LOOK AT THE REMAINING 12Z MDL DATA.
.MQT..NONE.
DESROSIERS
FXUS63 KAPX 291434 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
LATEST VIS STLT SHOWING BANDING LAKE CLOUDS MOVING OVER EAST UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER THE STATE.
CURRENT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CHARTS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. 12Z RUC SHOWS SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN AROUND 6C-7C THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OPEN LAKE TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 16C AND LAKE SUPERIOR
AROUND 14C. DELTA T'S TO REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 10 THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE CONTINUE CHANCE OF LAKE CLOUDS. 12Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
LOWEST LAYER...BELOW 850 MB...DRYING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS AND EAST UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE MORE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW AND DRYING. WILL GO WITH
PARTLY SUNNY FOR INLAND COUNTIES.
SEE NO NEED TO MENTION PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. APX MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...12Z RUC SHOWED STRONG
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 850/500MB AND SURFACE RIDGE PROGGED TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KMQT 291002 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 1999
RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONTINUATION OF THE UNUSUALLY STRONG AND FURTHER
SOUTH THAN NORMAL ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES FROM WEST OF THE
DATELINE EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ONE WEAK WAVE IS ENTERING CENTRAL
MT WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS ON THE PACIFIC NW COAST. 12Z RUC INDICATES
STRONG SURFACE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD IN
COMBINATION WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER DUE TO MIXING.
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES. STROBIN
BIL BB 075/052 075/052 073 63333
LVM .. 072/049 070/... ... 63333
HDN .. 077/051 077/... ... 63333
MLS .. 077/052 077/052 ... 63333
4BQ .. 076/053 075/... ... 63333
BHK .. 075/050 074/... ... 63333
SHR BB 074/049 073/047 075 63333
FXUS65 KGGW 291501 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
CDFNT ADVANCING ACRS WRN SXNS OF NY ATTM WITH SGFNTLY LWR DWPNTS
ALREADY INTO CYHM VCNTY. POSITIVE BUOYANCY LOOKING FOR WELL IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WITH SOME MID LVL DRYING SPCLY ON 12Z KALY
SOUNDING WITH BETTER SHEAR PROFILE ON KBUF SOUNDING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER DCRD FM VALUES 24 HRS AGO...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO 2 IN TO
TAKE NOTICE. WL CONT TO HIGHLITE WND POTENTIAL WITH TSTMS THIS AFTN
AND WL HEIGHTEN NOTE OF HZ/HUMIDITY AND WITH FNTL FORCING WL ALSO
BUMP POPS UPWD 20-30 PERCENTAGE PTS. LTLCG FOR MAX TEMP PLANNED.
OR TNGT PD WL DCR POPS ACRS NW DIST PER EXTRAPOLATION OF 09Z RUN OF
RUC BACK EDGE QPF TO 15 HRS. MCKINLEY/JSQ
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.
FXUS61 KOKX 291409 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
940 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
SFC ANALYSIS/VSBL SAT PIX SHOW SFC COLD FRNT ENTERING THE IAG FRONTIER
ATTM...XTENDG BACK INTO NW PA/NE OH. MEANWHILE...ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP...MID LVL DRY PUNCH IS SEEN WORKING QUICKLY EWD FROM WRN NY/PA.
LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA OUTPUT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN
BRINGING BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN. TIMING OF FROPA
LOOKS TO BE ARND 16Z-18Z WRN SXNS...THEN CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE
POCONOS/WRN CATSK. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...IT APPEARS TO THIS FCSTR THAT
THE DRY ADVCTN ALOFT WILL OUTRUN THE FRNT AND BECOME COLLOCATED WITH
OUR JUICY LL ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PD LTR THIS AFTN. THIS
RAISES SOME INTERESTING CONVECTIVE PSBLTYS WITH RGNL VWP/S SHOWING
40-50 KT MID LVL FLOW. BEST CHC FOR ANY SVR WUD BE FROM BGM AND AVP
EWD DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN PD. MODIFIED 12Z SNDGS GIVE CAPES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500 J/KG IF THE SFC CAN HEAT INTO THE LWR 80S. EVEN THO QUT
A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLDNS IS HERE NOW...THERE ARE ALSO SOME BRKS OPENING
UP IN WRN NY AND MANY PLACES ARE ALREADY IN THE M-U 70S. MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS ARE WK LAPSE RATES (ONLY 5-6 C/KM) AND BETTER S/W FOCUS STAYING
N OF THE RGN. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MORE BENEFICIAL +RA CAN BE
ANTICIPATED. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION/WORDING LOOKS FINE FOR THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK.
WRK ZNS ARE ON THE STREET. FINAL RELEASE ARND 10 AM.
.BGM...NONE.
JUREWICZ
FXUS61 KALY 290759 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN OVER REGION THIS MORNING. PILOT REPORTS
INDICATING CLOUD TOPS AT 35K FT. CURENTLY SEEEING THIS LOW DECK RISE
SLIGHTLY BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME BREAKING UP AND
FUTURE CU DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS AFTN. SO...WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER CWA.
AS FOR POPS...WILL KEEP AS IS. RUC SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND WITH GOOD INSTABILITIES IN AREA SOUNDINGS. POSSIBLY A
FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS AFTER A LOOK AT LATEST OBS.
CWF...WINDS STILL GOING PRETTY WELL AND WILL RETAIN SCA THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES IF ANY PLANNED BEFORE ISSUANCE
.ILM...SCA FROM SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
PJN
FXUS72 KRAH 291349 nc
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CDT MON JUN 28 1999
RADAR AND MESONET DATA SHOW THAT COLD FRONT HAD REACHED A VAN BUREN
TO MCALESTER LINE BY 9 PM. 00Z RUC SHOWS FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS UNTIL IT HANGS UP ALONG THE RED RIVER AROUND 12Z.
HOWEVER...FRONT COULD ALSO BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE OUACHITA
MOUNTAINS. RADAR IS SHOWING CURRENT TSRA ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MLC
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW VOLUME SCANS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IN 30
POPS IN FAR SE OK THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...AND WHAT THE 00Z RUC SHOWS AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL ELIMINATE OVERNIGHT POPS NORTH OF I-40 AND
TWEAK WINDS A BIT. CURRENT TEMP FCST RANGING FROM UPR 60S-MID 70S
LOOKS GOOD. UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD BE OUT AROUND 935 PM.
18Z ETA SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON TUE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACRS KS/NE...THOUGH THIS SETUP COULD SKIRT THE
NRN ZNS AROUND MID-DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE. OTRW...HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SRN ZNS ON TUE
LOOKS GOOD TOO. COULD BE ANOTHER MCS TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS POSSIBILITY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
22
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KOUN 282036 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
930 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
SFC TROF GS0-MCN LINE CONTS TO DRFT SLOLY EWD THS MRNG. RUC SHWS
APPRCHG S/W MOVG NEWD AND WKENG. AMS RMNS VRY MOIST WITH LIS -5
TO -6 DURG AFTN. WL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT OVR AREA. TEMPS
ON TRCK. TA
.CAE...NONE.
FXUS62 KGSP 291309 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
UPDATED THE SRN ZONES EARLIER THIS MRNG TO INCR THE CLD COVER AND
TAKE OUT THE POPS...TO JUST GO SCT. LOCAL 88D'S SHOW PCPN BAND
STAYING RIGHT ALONG THE FAR SRN TIER OF CWA...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PROGRESS NWD. THIS BAND OF PCPN IS LIKELY CAUSED BY LLVL WAA...
DEPICTED WELL BY THE RUC LASTING THRU THIS AFTN. BUT ANY NWD
PROGRESS WL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS AND
TOO MUCH STABILITY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN WAVE NOW IN THE WRN
HIGH PLAINS NR THE BORDER OF THE DKTS AND WY/MT. THIS WAVE WL MOV
EWRD AND PSBLY SPARK MORE DVLPMENT OF SHWRS ACRS THE NRN HALF OF CWA
LATE TDAY. OTHERWISE WNDS AND TEMP FCST LOOK REASONABLE...WL UPDATE
ARND MIDDAY IF ANYTHING WOULD HAPPEN TO GO WRONG.
.FSD...NONE
FUHS
FXUS63 KABR 291517 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED PRE-FRONTAL TROF NEARING PLATEAU
REGION WITH BEST INDICATIONS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WRN THIRD OF KY
AND NW TN. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WITH DEWPTS IN THE 70S...MORE LIKE
THE GULF COAST. HOPEFULLY THE LAST SOLID AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF
1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...SO EXTENDED THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU NOON.
THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
...BUT WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF COLD FRONT.
06Z RUC MODEL DEPICTED AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE PICS DO NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...WILL MONITOR SATELLITE PICS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR
IMPROVING SKIES BEHIND FRONT.
TG
FXUS64 KOHX 291210 tn
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1005 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999
FRONTAL CONVECTION LIES WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
LATEST RUC NOR PREVIOUS MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO MAKE MUCH OF
SOUTHWARD PUSH...EXCEPT FOR SOME PSBL TS OUTFLOWS WHICH COULD AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO COME THIS FAR
SOUTH SO PLAN ON REMOVING AFTERNOON POPS. IN ADDITION ATMOSPHERE IS
MODERATELY CAPPED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RDG SO EVEN SEA
BREEZE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY GENERATING ANY SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO
ADDRESS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA AND
PERHAPS WILL USE WORDING OF BECOMING PC AND KNOCK DOWN FORECAST MAX
TEMPS A CAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
.SAT...NONE.
01/13
FXUS64 KMAF 291455 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
12Z ANALYSIS HAD SFC FNT BEARING DOWN ON BNA TO CNTRL OH. GOOD
PRESSURE RISES IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S BEHIND THE FNT. 09Z RUC HAD FNT SLOWLY CROSSING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. DON'T THINK IT WL REACH LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAINS
UNTIL AFT 00Z. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SEGMENTS OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG FRONT
AND MOVING INTO RLX FA AND CNTRL TN WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. AREA OF
PCPN COMING OUT OF CNTRL TN AND LEADING AREA OF SHRA WL MAINLY PASS
SOUTH OF CWA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING HAD CAPES 2500-4000 J/KG AND LIS
-5 TO -8. PWINS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS PAST FEW DAYS SO WL ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SINCE FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TNGT
EXPECT ONLY SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTN SO NO BIG CHANGES IN POPS. BUT
WILL WATCH FOR INCREASING COVERAGE ON LINE COMING THRU WV. TEMPS
RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO
REST OF FCST.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
AMS
FXUS61 KAKQ 291347 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
IN THE SHORT TERM...ALL OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO FOCUS ON THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH THE ETA AND
NGM MOVES AN AREA OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THAT AREA AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY THIS EVENING WHILE THE RUC SINKS A VORT CENTER MORE SOUTH
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA COAST. SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE RUC SOLUTION WHICH FOCUS THE RAINFALL
MORE ON THE COASTAL AREAS. THE PRECIPITABLE H2O FROM THE
JACKSONVILLE 12Z SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN MONDAY(1.75 VS 2.18
INCHES) BUT THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS MOVES THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RAINFALL WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY EAST OF THE AREA
WHILE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE SEABREEZE INTERACTION WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER THE FWC
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH.
AMG 74/90/72/90 5434
SSI 75/85/75/87 5534
JAX 74/89/73/90 5534
GNV 72/89/71/90 4534 33
BLS
FXUS62 KMLB 291817 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT (300 PM CDT) TUE JUN 29 1999
...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED WITH THETA-E AXIS AND COOL FRONT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL FORCING TO OUR SOUTH BUT QPF
FORECASTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH
HIGH OMEGA FIELDS. NOGAPS/CANADIAN AND MAPS MODELS KEEPING PRECIP TO
OUR SOUTH AFTER 00Z WHILE ETA/AVN/18Z RUC KEEP WIDESPREAD PRECIP
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NGM SHUNTS IT EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WILL TEND
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS KEEPING IT SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND TO OUR EAST ALONG COOL FRONT. WILL GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FWC GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDCOVER AND HIGHER MOISTURE.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH
STATIONARY FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH Q FILEDS FROM 850-700 SHOWING SOME FORCING
MOVING THROUGH. ETA/AVN/NGM KEEP US DRY THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS WHILE
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS GIVE US SOME PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF LEE TROUGH. WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
ZONES AND DRY FOR COLORADO. WILL UNDERCUT A BIT OVER EASTERN ZONES
DUE TO CLOUDCOVER AND GO NEAR ELSEWHERE.
APPEARS TO BE A BIT DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH NO SO MUCH CLOUDCOVER TO
BURN OFF. 850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 DEGREES C OR SO. WILL GO ABOVE FWC
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF IN AGREEMENT TODAY WITH YESTERDAYS RUN OF
DRYING THINGS OUT AND WARMING THINGS UP. TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL WARM EACH DAY...FLIRTING WITH 100 ON SATURDAY.
.GLD...NONE.
THEDE
FXUS63 KTOP 291959 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999
AFTN TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SC AND SANDHILLS APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH 18Z WAVE SHOWN ON RUC...WHICH SLOWLY DRIFTS TO COAST
BY 00Z. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCT TSTMS IN ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY WED
AM.
THIS AFTN MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP ACROSS CWA...WV SATPIX AND AVN AND
ETA MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING LEADING EDGE
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH NOW IN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. BY SUNRISE WED ONLY A LOW LAYER 80 PCT SATURATED
REMAINS...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI FOR CONTG HI DEW POINTS AND
UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...WI LOW CLOUDS FORMING AT NIGHT AND SLOWLY
BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING.
AS THAT TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA...THE DRIER AMS HOLDS THROUGH THU. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH THAT RUNS N UP THE VA APPALACHIANS THU...HOT RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL STATES AND A DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH SFC RIDGE
TO THE S OF THE CWA MAINTAINING A SW SFC WIND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
CWF: APPCHG FRONT AND FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
CRITERIA AT SCA FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER WINDS WED AFTN BELOW SCA.
.ILM...SCA FROM SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
ILM EE 075/088 075/090 075 42222
FLO EE 075/091 075/092 075 42222
MYR EE 077/088 077/089 077 42222
TM
FXUS62 KMHX 291814 nc