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000 FXUS04 KWBC 141823 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 222 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAR 15/0000 UTC THRU MAR 16/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...NWRN U.S... A MULTI DAY HEAVY PCPN EVENT UNDERWAY ACRS THE NWRN U.S. AS A SERIES OF NERN PAC HT FALLS WL ROTATE EWD TOWARD THE NWRN U.S. ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE MEAN MID TO UPR VORTEX OVR THE NERN PAC. THIS WL SUPPORT SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW DURG THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW WL STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 ASSOC WITH THE LEAD VORT MOVG TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN SAT NIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN EARLY SUN AS A MORE POTENT SFC WAVE PUSHES TOWARD THE WA COAST. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX DAY 1 IS AIMED AT OREGON SWD INTO NWRN CA....WITH AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS OF 2-3"+ DEPICTED THRU THE OR CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO NWRN CA. LIGHTER PCPN AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER NWD THRU THE WA CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN OR...NERN WA...CNTRL TO NRN ID AND NWRN MT. FOR QPF DETAILS...THE DAY 1 QPF FOLLOWED THE HEAVIER ECMWF AND SREF MEAN. ..CNTRL GULF COAST...SERN U.S...MID ATL... AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST DAY 1 FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST...NEWD INTO THE SERN U.S. AND SRN MID ATL. WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THIS MOISTURE AXIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS SHRTWV ENERGY PUSHES NEWD IN THE BROAD SWLY MID TO UPR LEVEL FLOW ACRS THESE AREAS. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE WITH THE AXIS OF MAX PCPN FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE SRN MID ATL..WITH AREAL AVG .50-1"+ AMTS DEPICTED. FOR QPF DETAILS THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN WERE USED. NRN MAINE... AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BNDRY FCST TO DROP SEWD FROM QB INTO NRN MAINE THIS PERIOD. ENHANCED UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BNDRY WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR NRN MAINE. THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE AGREE THAT LIQUID EQUIVALENTS WL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY LESS THAN .10"...WITH THE DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING FROM THIS CONSENSUS. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 16/00Z 0.01 486685 484679 482675 477672 472669 465668 462676 460684 460691 461701 464707 465713 465731 468741 471750 473752 474757 475766 479805 483828 485834 486841 487847 490850 494855 499857 504859 506853 504841 505831 503821 501807 501800 498788 496767 493756 492745 490737 491731 490727 491717 489706 488698 486687 486685 0.01 531224 534216 536207 536198 535191 532185 530181 524173 519163 513155 498140 493134 486128 481125 476124 467128 463127 460123 457112 455106 452102 444097 439096 436094 430088 427086 425088 425091 428102 427118 430122 434120 437120 441123 444126 445133 447137 446139 443138 436135 428139 427143 424149 418154 412162 410169 412176 415180 439170 445178 439183 436187 437193 440202 438206 434205 431202 427199 419195 416197 414202 412208 407206 400201 389198 386195 382193 378195 377201 380207 393220 373213 368213 364217 363219 365223 368232 370236 375238 385242 390247 398253 408258 418263 423264 429265 437266 444265 461262 466261 470262 479266 488274 495282 497284 500287 502287 506287 510285 514277 517269 519261 520252 519245 516240 515234 513228 510223 508218 506211 509212 513216 520224 523227 525229 528229 531224 0.01 403719 402712 399705 394697 386693 378698 372706 365715 362723 358732 353739 348746 340762 333780 325797 321803 315809 309815 303822 299829 296837 293847 291855 288863 284870 273883 263896 259902 254910 249924 243939 241946 239954 239959 240965 242975 246983 251989 256994 264997 267995 270992 274987 276983 280980 289977 296971 301966 306959 314955 320949 324943 324929 325918 327910 329902 333894 337887 339883 344881 349886 355896 357899 360902 366902 371901 377895 379892 380886 381873 381868 383863 389856 395849 399839 405822 408813 411802 412793 412780 411768 409754 406736 403719 0.25 526198 523191 520184 513171 494147 491140 487134 481132 476131 474133 474137 476139 483142 484146 482151 476150 467143 463141 459142 456147 452150 448149 442145 439144 436144 434147 432151 433154 436161 446170 449178 447186 447191 450194 453193 462183 466177 468175 471174 494185 502186 507189 519199 522201 525199 526198 0.25 512261 513252 512248 508236 504226 501214 496205 491203 485203 476206 468208 462206 459208 457211 452213 444213 437213 432209 425204 421204 421207 421214 419221 414215 406211 399206 392202 389202 387204 388209 393214 402219 404221 405224 404228 400228 394227 387223 384224 382227 382231 385235 392241 408252 414255 419257 430258 438258 446257 454255 464254 474256 485260 489263 493267 499275 502277 504276 505266 512261 0.25 444109 444108 441106 438107 438108 438109 441110 444111 444109 0.25 389741 386731 382727 379725 375725 368731 360743 354757 349768 344781 339792 332805 315825 303847 292868 281893 277903 272915 263938 262944 262952 264960 268963 276962 283961 289958 294954 299942 305930 314906 319894 325883 333873 343863 354856 362853 370849 377836 379830 381824 384809 385794 385778 388761 390751 389741 0.50 509255 510249 508244 504234 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