Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 12
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
A LARGE PART OF EASTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 930 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO COLLEGE STATION TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 9...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10. WATCH NUMBER 9 10 WILL
NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 930 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 11...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VERY STRONG MID/UPR
WIND MAX WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAS DEVELOPED
ERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE...TORNADOS ARE ALSO LIKELY. IN ADDITION
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 12 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 110330Z - 111100Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NE HRO/HARRISON AR/ - CLL/COLLEGE STATION TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /56SSE SGF - 65NW IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..80 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
REPLACES WW 9..AR OK
REPLACES WW 10..AR OK TX
LAT...LON 36509120 30569486 30569787 36509444
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 12 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 12
VALID 110935Z - 111040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW BVX
TO 10 WSW BVX TO 30 ESE UNO.
..MEAD..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC063-085-135-145-111040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
INDEPENDENCE LONOKE SHARP
WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 12
VALID 110840Z - 110940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE UTS
TO 25 W SHV TO 15 ESE TXK TO 20 E RUE TO 15 SSW UNO.
..MEAD..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-099-
103-105-119-125-135-137-141-145-110940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA
CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER
FULTON GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD
LAFAYETTE LONOKE NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY PULASKI
SALINE SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE
$$
LAC015-017-031-119-110940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO
WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-405-419-110940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 12
VALID 110750Z - 110840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE UTS TO
15 S TXK TO 20 NNE TXK TO 25 N FLP.
..MEAD..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-063-065-073-
085-089-091-097-099-103-105-109-115-119-125-129-135-137-141-145-
149-110840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLARK CLEBURNE
COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE IZARD LAFAYETTE
LONOKE MARION MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POPE
PULASKI SALINE SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE YELL
$$
LAC015-017-031-119-110840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO
WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-347-365-373-405-419-110840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
POLK SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 12
VALID 110645Z - 110740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CLL TO
35 S TYR TO 30 NNW GGG TO 25 SW DEQ TO 25 SE FSM TO 20 N HRO.
..MEAD..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-019-023-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-063-
065-071-073-081-083-085-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-
119-125-127-129-133-135-137-141-145-149-110740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CLARK
CLEBURNE COLUMBIA CONWAY
DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE
MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POLK
POPE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE YELL
$$
LAC015-017-031-119-110740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO
WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-037-067-073-183-185-203-225-315-343-347-365-373-401-405-
407-419-455-459-471-110740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CASS
CHEROKEE GREGG GRIMES
HARRISON HOUSTON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
POLK RUSK SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY
UPSHUR WALKER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 12
VALID 110530Z - 110640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CLL
TO 30 SSW TYR TO 40 SSW PRX TO 25 WNW FSM TO 20 NE FYV TO 30 SSE
UMN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 93
..DIAL..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-015-019-023-027-029-033-039-045-047-049-051-053-057-
059-061-063-065-071-073-081-083-085-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-
105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-141-145-149-
110640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CARROLL
CLARK CLEBURNE COLUMBIA
CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS
FAULKNER FRANKLIN FULTON
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MARION MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SEBASTIAN SEVIER SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
YELL
$$
LAC015-017-031-119-110640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO
WEBSTER
$$
OKC079-089-135-110640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH
$$
TXC001-005-037-041-051-063-067-073-119-159-183-185-203-223-225-
277-289-313-315-343-347-365-373-387-401-405-407-419-423-449-455-
459-471-499-110640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA BOWIE
BRAZOS BURLESON CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE DELTA
FRANKLIN GREGG GRIMES
HARRISON HOPKINS HOUSTON
LAMAR LEON MADISON
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA POLK RED RIVER
RUSK SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
TRINITY UPSHUR WALKER
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 12
VALID 110435Z - 110540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE AUS TO
10 NNW CRS TO 30 NE DAL TO 25 SSE MKO TO 25 ESE GMJ.
..DIAL..02/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-007-009-015-019-023-027-029-033-039-045-047-049-051-053-
057-059-061-063-065-071-073-081-083-085-087-089-091-097-099-101-
103-105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-141-143-145-
149-110540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE
COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD
DALLAS FAULKNER FRANKLIN
FULTON GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MADISON MARION
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON WHITE YELL
$$
LAC015-017-031-119-110540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO
WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-023-061-077-079-089-127-135-110540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHOCTAW HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
TXC001-005-037-041-051-063-067-073-085-119-145-147-159-161-183-
185-203-213-223-225-231-257-277-289-293-313-315-331-343-347-349-
365-373-379-387-395-397-401-405-407-419-423-449-455-459-467-471-
499-110540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA BOWIE
BRAZOS BURLESON CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE COLLIN
DELTA FALLS FANNIN
FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG
GRIMES HARRISON HENDERSON
HOPKINS HOUSTON HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR LEON
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MILAM MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
NAVARRO PANOLA POLK
RAINS RED RIVER ROBERTSON
ROCKWALL RUSK SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY SMITH
TITUS TRINITY UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WALKER WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (90%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.