FXUS63 KDLH 142026
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
225 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2003

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA.  SOME DRYING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OUT WEST DUE TO DESCENDING 
AIR...OTHERWISE THE AREA IS COVERED WITH LOW CLOUDS.  SOME PATCHY 
FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLIER TODAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIP HAS 
SWITCHED TO FLURRIES.  THE NORTHERN STREAM SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY 
LOCATED ALONG THE MONTANA...SASKATCHEWAN BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER.  MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL 
ADVECT IN THIS EVENING... WHICH SHOULD SEED THE LOW CLOUDS...SO ONLY 
FLURRIES AT MOST EXPECTED.  A SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
BEGINS TO SPIN UP FROM A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN 
LONG WAVE TROUGH. BY MORNING...THE SOUTHERN LOW (OVER 
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BY THIS TIME) BECOMES DOMINATE.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.  NO 
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...WITH THE PROFILE BELOW FREEZING BY 
THIS TIME.  ETA IS DRYER WITH ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION DURING 
THE AFTERNOON...GFS BRINGS IN THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  LEANING 
TOWARD THE GFS FOR THIS SYSTEM IN GENERAL DUE TO BETTER RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY.  ETA HAS BEEN TRACKING TOWARD THE GFS WITH TIME.

MOST SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.  EVEN THE DRYER 
ETA BRINGS IN 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS.  ETA TIME SECTIONS HAVE 
MAX OMEGA IN THE ZONE OF GOOD SNOW GROWTH.  BOTH MODELS HAVE 
HEALTHY ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING WITH THIS SYSTEM.  GFS HINTS AT 
AROUND 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.  STRONG WINDS WITH THIS 
EVENT WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS...ESPECIALLY THE TUESDAY MORNING 
COMMUTE.

QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...SNOW WILL END DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY 
EXPECT EARLY AFTERNOON FAR EASTERN ZONES.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE 
NORTHWEST.  THIS COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY RELATIVE TO THE 
LAKE...WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE 
SOUTH SHORE.

&&

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

$$

KFM