Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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000 FXUS63 KPAH 161122 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 622 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION && .DISCUSSION... DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS ARE LINGERING POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN A COLD FRONT MID-WEEK. LATEST MODELS LINGER A CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE QUAD STATE TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER MOST OF THE DAY AND WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL DRYING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MODELS SHOW PRECIP AS MAINLY POST FRONTAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF NOT INTRODUCING POPS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE REGION AND THEN PROGRESSING THE PRECIP SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS TRYING TO COME TOGETHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND LOW CONFIDENCE. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED MORE TOWARD WARMER MET NUMBERS FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS AND SPORADIC MVFR VSBYS ARE COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VSBYS SHOULD RISE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TO VFR. A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO RISE AND SKIES TO BECOME GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
