QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 151822
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 222 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
  
  
 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID MAR 16/0000 UTC THRU MAR 17/0000 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
  
 DAY 1...
 
 NWRN U.S...
 
 NO BIG CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE
 NERN PAC INTO THE NWRN U.S. DAY 1.  FAST CYCLONIC MID TO UPR LEVEL
 FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHRTWVS WL CONT FROM THE NERN PAC AND INLAND
 INTO THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES REGION THIS PERIOD.  THE SUSTAINED
 ONSHORE LOW TO MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL MDT TO
 HVY PCPN AMTS OVR THE NWRN U.S....WITH OVERALL GOOD AGRMNT IN THE
 LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE WITH PCPN DISTRIBUTIONS AND
 AMOUNTS.  HEAVIEST PCPN AMTS DAY 1 EXPECTED OVR NRN TO NWRN CA AND
 INTO CNTRL ID WHERE THE MOISTURE FLUX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
 THE 2 TO 3 STD ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE.  AREAL AVG 1-2"+ AMTS
 EXPECTED ACRS THESE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED 3"+ AMTS POSSIBLE OVR
 NWRN CA.  ELSEWHERE ACRS THE NWRN U.S...AREAL AVG .25-50"+ AMTS
 EXPECTED.
 
 CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SRN MID ATL...
 
 THE MID TO UPR LEVEL SWLY FLOW ACRS THE SERN TIER OF THE NATION WL
 KEEP WET CONDITIONS GOING FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY. THIS SWLY
 FLOW WL CONT TO OVERRUN THE SW TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BNDRY
 ACRS THE SERN U.S.  WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ALONG
 AND NORTH OF THE BNDRY...ADDITIONAL MDT TO HVY PCPN TOTALS LIKELY
 AS THE LAST SET OF SHRTWV ENERGY IN THE RECENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT
 PUSHES ENEWD.  THE QPF AXES AMONG THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
 ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...WITH THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SWD AXIS OF THE
 GFS/CMC GEM PREFERRED OVER THE FARTHER NWD AXES OF THE ECMWF AND
 CMC GLOBAL.  AREAL AVG .50-1"+ AMTS DEPICTED IN THIS AXIS DAY 1.
 
 ORAVEC
  
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  
 24HR QP VT 17/00Z
  0.01 535191 535181 534175 531171 523158 516150 511145 498134 
       492130 486125 482122 478120 475120 475116 475101 474087 
       473085 470085 468089 467093 464098 462097 456094 450092 
       442091 433089 427087 423107 422118 422127 424147 432164 
       434172 434178 433184 430191 430196 428200 422197 416197 
       406206 401205 399201 392199 385194 381196 379199 380203 
       383207 387212 393218 396218 394221 388220 385217 381216 
       375213 370212 367217 366222 370229 373235 377242 379248 
       381252 386256 394259 402260 412263 419265 435269 444270 
       452271 466274 474277 483281 490288 494295 500301 504302 
       507299 515282 518269 520255 518249 518241 517229 518222 
       520218 523216 526216 530210 533203 535191 
  0.01 486196 487190 486183 483178 478172 472172 468174 467179 
       463187 458192 454197 450204 449210 450212 453210 456210 
       458206 461204 465205 468205 471204 478203 484199 486196 
  0.01 416766 415762 412759 406754 399750 393745 388736 385723 
       382716 375705 373703 370704 361710 351715 343718 335719 
       329726 324744 320751 315759 313766 311773 308783 308791 
       306799 304806 292835 278865 268893 261906 253919 249926 
       247933 245941 244948 241964 240975 242978 247980 254992 
       258993 263991 270987 273980 278974 290963 334918 345906 
       352893 366882 372874 376867 383850 385841 386832 387825 
       388820 393812 397805 401797 405789 409782 414773 416766 
  0.25 514262 515257 514249 511237 507226 502215 498208 494205 
       489205 479207 470210 463211 455214 452215 447215 437214 
       424205 423210 423214 421218 419219 417216 402207 395201 
       390200 383200 385205 391213 397218 401222 400224 390223 
       385222 382223 380226 380230 382234 388243 394248 402252 
       412255 422256 437254 446254 458253 465255 475260 482265 
       490274 497282 501284 506281 508275 509269 513265 514262 
  0.25 520196 522192 522187 521182 518180 515179 513180 512183 
       511184 512185 513190 514191 517195 518196 519196 520196 
  0.25 485232 484227 483226 480226 477225 474226 471227 469227 
       471228 474229 477229 479231 482234 485233 485232 
  0.25 487139 485134 480130 477127 473126 469127 463126 459128 
       455131 454134 454137 454141 450145 444142 439138 436135 
       433137 431141 430145 431150 432155 435160 438163 445172 
       448177 446180 442183 441187 443193 446196 450193 452192 
       454189 461181 462177 460169 464164 476160 478159 476156 
       473151 471145 471139 481137 487139 
  0.25 454114 452109 450105 450104 447101 444099 441098 438099 
       436100 435101 434104 432108 432112 435114 438115 440116 
       441117 443119 446119 449117 452115 454114 
  0.25 366754 364747 360741 356737 352736 347737 341741 335749 
       328758 324768 320777 316789 311809 307818 303831 296850 
       288869 285878 282887 280893 280898 284915 284921 282926 
       280935 278941 277946 278949 284949 290946 298941 305934 
       312927 318916 329900 334890 339880 341868 342857 343844 
       343830 345819 348808 358788 364771 365762 366754 
  0.50 510255 510246 508238 503224 499215 498212 495209 487208 
       482209 458215 448218 440216 431216 427217 423221 420229 
       417229 415227 415222 415216 413213 408214 403209 393203 
       388201 386204 388208 397217 402220 404224 403228 392225 
       385226 385231 386235 389239 394244 398247 405250 411252 
       418252 424251 429250 440246 445244 453245 465245 476252 
       487260 498274 500276 502274 501265 494250 479233 476231 
       473232 467234 460232 455233 450234 446236 443235 437235 
       435234 436232 438230 450226 455225 462227 469223 475220 
       479220 487222 499241 505250 508255 510255 
  0.50 471154 468145 463141 459143 456148 450150 445147 442144 
       439141 436139 434140 433144 433148 433152 435156 438160 
       445166 450175 453178 455176 455172 455168 456164 460160 
       468158 471154 
  0.50 448113 447109 444105 441103 439104 438106 437108 438110 
       441111 442113 443114 446114 448113 
  0.50 357759 356752 353750 350749 347750 343755 336762 331770 
       326779 322788 316807 309823 302841 296860 292878 289888 
       289891 290894 293899 293903 291913 289923 290933 292936 
       297935 304927 324896 328890 333881 335870 335857 336847 
       336842 335835 336829 338824 340815 346798 355777 358768 
       357759 
  1.00 503238 503237 501233 500230 498227 497227 497232 499237 
       502239 503238 
  1.00 480239 479236 477234 476233 473237 475241 478242 480239 
  1.00 454159 453155 452155 450154 447152 444150 444149 442147 
       439145 439144 438144 436148 436152 438156 438157 441158 
       443160 446161 447162 449164 451163 452163 454159 
  1.00 428243 428239 427238 419234 413231 412228 413223 414219 
       412217 405214 397207 394205 391205 392210 397214 401218 
       406222 407229 405231 401229 394228 390230 390233 392236 
       395241 400245 406247 414248 424246 428243 
  1.00 339790 339787 336787 334788 333790 332792 331794 330796 
       329799 329800 327803 327804 326807 327810 329811 332810 
       334807 335803 337799 337798 338795 338793 339790 
  1.00 318824 317821 313827 309835 307839 304846 302851 300858 
       301862 303861 306854 308849 311842 314836 317829 318824 
  1.00 321868 321863 319861 316866 313872 310879 307883 303890 
       301897 302904 303908 306907 309905 311902 314897 317892 
       319885 320877 321870 321868 
  1.50 423242 420237 416235 411234 408234 402232 399230 396230 
       393233 394237 398241 401243 405244 409245 415245 418244 
       423242 
  1.50 401212 399211 397209 395207 394206 393206 394208 394210 
       396213 399213 401212 
  2.00 419240 418240 416238 413236 410236 407236 404235 402233 
       399232 396233 396234 397238 398239 401241 403242 406242 
       409242 411242 412242 415242 418241 419240  
  
 

 
 
 

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