AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 305 PM MST WED NOV 12 2003 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WITH A MOIST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA THURSDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND SPREADING EAST...AND SHOWERS ENDING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY LATE THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER AIR SYSTEMS WILL DRIFT INTO ARIZONA...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MEAN A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR LAX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THE BEST FORCING AND PRECIP AREA ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIF...BUT AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE...THE PRIME AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE...AS DEEP-LAYER RH STAYS OVER ARIZONA. MAX TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE 60S ON THE DESERTS...AND IN THE 50S HIER TRRN. BY 13/12Z THE DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED FARTHER EAST...AND SOME DECREASE IN SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL HOURS OF HIGH SFC RH EXPECTED. RUC SHOWS HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT...AND WILL BUMP UP THE QPFS SOMEWHAT. THE GROUND HAS BEEN SOAKING IT UP NICELY AND WITH RAIN RATES LESS THAN .25 PER HOUR WE WILL HOLD OFF WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH. A LARGE AREA OF LIFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF CLOUD TO GROUND OR IN-CLOUD LTG EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM FORECASTS COVERING THIS SCENARIO WELL. UPPER LOW STILL PROGGED TO LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING WEST OF BAJA COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME CLOUDS AND SUN FOR OUR WEEKEND. HIGH LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT SUFFICIENT HEIGHT RISES FOR MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN IMPERIAL COUNTY BY MIDWEEK. SIPPLE && .PSR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ 11 az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 840 PM CST WED NOV 12 2003 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE WINDS. SFC OBS THE LAST COUPLE HOURS SHOWING THAT THE WINDS ARE SLOWLY, SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. UPSTREAM OBS IN IA ARE ALSO DECR. STRONGEST WINDS STILL FURTHER NORTH ALONG AND NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. WINDS STILL A TOUCH STRONGER OVER TOWARD CMI AND DANVILLE ALSO. PEAK WINDS REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE...WE SENT A PNS OUT ON THIS. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT A FEW OF THE WINDIER LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA A LITTLE PAST 9 PM...BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD BE OK TO DROP THE ADVISORY ON SCHEDULE. WINDS WILL STILL STAY UP ALL NIGHT BUT NOT AS STRONG...CONTINUING TO DECR AS THE INTENSE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. TEMPS STEADILY FALLING AND SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS OF MID 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S FAR SE. SAT PICS SHOWING WRAP AROUND BAND OF SC THAT WAS OVER N-CNTRL IL IS MOVING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY, FEW CI OVER THE SOUTH...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WILL WORK FINE CWA WIDE. WILL SEND OUT NPW SHORTLY TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM THEN UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. .PREV DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS THIS CYCLE WILL BE FIRST PERIOD WINDS...THEN TIMING THE NEXT TWO WAVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS AND AREA 88D WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK AT THIS TIME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOW STRONG WINDS WELL INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA COMMON...WITH A COUPLE STATIONS IN EASTERN IOWA APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW... EXPECT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS RIGHT UP TO FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIE DOWN WITH TIME AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PULLS EASTWARD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATES AFTER DARK. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A LONG TRIP TO MAKE IT TO ILLINOIS...SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST STATES CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING. THE AFOREMENTIONED MEAGER MOISTURE VALUES ARGUE FOR KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY. THE ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS SURPRISING WHEN CONSIDERING THE USUAL MODEL BIASES REGARDING THE EJECTION OF SOUTHWESTERN CUTOFF LOWS. AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON SUNDAY...THE KICKER FOR THE 1ST WAVE BEGINS AFFECTING THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE BOTTLED UP ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING DYNAMICS FURTHER NORTH TO WARRANT KEEPING THE CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY. TUESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVSY TIL 03Z ZNS 27>31..36>38..40>57..61. && $$ 04/HALL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 245 PM CST WED NOV 12 2003 .DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS THIS CYCLE WILL BE FIRST PERIOD WINDS...THEN TIMING THE NEXT TWO WAVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS AND AREA 88D WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK AT THIS TIME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOW STRONG WINDS WELL INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA COMMON...WITH A COUPLE STATIONS IN EASTERN IOWA APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW... EXPECT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS RIGHT UP TO FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIE DOWN WITH TIME AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAK LAKES PULLS EASTWARD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATES AFTER DARK. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A LONG TRIP TO MAKE IT TO ILLINOIS...SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE INITAL SOUTHWEST STATES CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING. THE AFOREMENTIONED MEAGER MOISTURE VALUES ARGUE FOR KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY. THE ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS SURPRISING WHEN CONSIDERING THE USUAL MODEL BIASES REGARDING THE EJECTION OF SOUTHWESTERN CUTOFF LOWS. AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON SUNDAY...THE KICKER FOR THE 1ST WAVE BEGINS AFFECTING THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE BOTTLED UP ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BUT ENOUGHT MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING DYNAMICS FURTHER NORTH TO WARRANT KEEPING THE CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY. TUESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WIND ADVSY TIL 03Z ZNS 27>31..36>38..40>57..61. && $$ 04 il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1035 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 ...SHORT TERM UPDATE... COLD FRONT MOVED THRU LMK FA EARLIER THIS EVE. W/NWLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AS EXPECTED AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW. RUC FCST RAOBS FROM BUFKIT SUGGEST THAT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE 30-35KT RANGE MUCH OF THE NIGHT, ESP ACROSS NRN 1/2 OF FA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE EVIDENCE OF GUSTS CLOSER TO 45 MPH (AND SUSTAINED AOA 30 MPH) BEFORE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY, BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON INCOMING OBSERVATIONS. .LMK...NONE. ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE SNOW/WIND TRENDS WITH DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED POTENT SHRTWV FROM ERN UPR MI INTO SE LWR MI WHERE MAIN VORT ENERGY WAS LOCATED AT THE NOSE OF A 160 KT H3 JET. AT THE SFC...990 MB LO OVER FAR NRN LK HURON CONTINUED TO PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST. MAX 3-HR PRES RISE OF AROUND 7 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR MNM/GRB LEAVING BEST ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT OVER THE E HLF OF UPR MI. 03Z SFC OBS INDICATED WINDS GUSTING IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE OVER THE E HLF OF UPR MI AND 25-40 MPH OVER THE WEST. IR LOOP SHOWED BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED COMMA HEAD CLOUDS WITH BEST 800-600 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...FROM NEAR KP59-KMQT-KESC. RADAR ALSO SHOWED DIMINISHING TREND WITH REFLECTIVITIES AND MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN BAND E OF KMQT. AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE HAVE REPORTED MAINLY -RA/-SN MIX WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE RANGED FROM 4-6 INCHES OVER THE WEST (NEAR LK SUPERIOR) TO 3-4 INCHES NORTH CNTRL. EXPECT LAKE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUC/ETA 700 RH. EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OVER THE BLIZZARD WRNG AREA. THE BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW COMBINED WITH WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF SHARPLY REDUCED VSBY. CAA WILL PUSH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -11C (GIVING LK-H8 DELTA/T TO NEAR 16C) WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TRANSITION TO PURE LES REGIME. RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND SHORT FETCH WITH NW FLOW ALONG WITH DRY LOW LVLS UPSTREAM(PER KINL SNDG AND OBS OVER NE MN) SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO. SINCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE WILL STILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS...SN/BLSN ADVY RETAINED FOR MUCH OF THE NW. WINTER STORM WARNING KEPT FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND LATER DEPARTURE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW. EXPECT HIGH WINDS INTO THE ADVY RANGE( GUSTS AOA 45 MPH) THROUGH 06Z AS CAA AND DECREASING STABILITY ALLOW GOOD PORTION OF 925 WINDS (40-50KT) TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC. AFT 06Z...MDLS SUGGEST GRADIENT WILL RELAX ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DROP OFF. JLB && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING OVERNIGHT MIZ006-007-085. WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT MIZ005. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY OVERNIGHT MIZ001>004-084. HIGH WIND ADVY MIZ011>014. STORM WARNING EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 408 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2003 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (UP TO 00Z FRI)... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND A STRONG VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A DEEP LOW OVER ESCANABA...WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 24 HOURS. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND 700MB OMEGA CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. 290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH SHOWING NEAR SATURATION AT THE LOW LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL JET HAS A FAIRLY STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COMBINING THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN THESE WITH THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG DESCENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...THIS SHOULD HELP STEER THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TOWARDS SURFACE... ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPID EAST REACHING NORTHERN GEORGIAN BAY BY 03Z. THE NARROW BAND OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL SHIFT OVER THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S TO AROUND 14C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT FETCH TIME AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...AND ISENTROPIC DESCENT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. ETA STILL SHOWING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS ALONG WITH DELTA-T'S AROUND 16C SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AROUND THE NORTHERN U.P. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DELTA-T'S WILL BE AROUND 16C OVER THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LES OVER THE EAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. WARM ADVECTION AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...THUS WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER...THE THERE WILL LITTLE MIXING TO SURFACE. ADIABATIC CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE SOME OF THE STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND WILL REACH INTO EASTERN U.P. DLG .LONGER TERM (00Z FRI ONWARD)... ETA SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280-I295 SURFACES WITH SOME MOISTURE WHICH PASSES ACROSS CWA FROM 00Z FRI-12Z FRI. THERE IS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHICH MOVES INTO CWA THU NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY THOUGH AND WILL NOT MENTION FLURRIES AT THIS POINT AS PCPN WOULD PROBABLY FALL AS VIRGA ANYWAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T DECREASES AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT FALLS. BY 12Z FRI...THE DELTA-T IS LOW ENOUGH THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE. AFTER THAT...QUIET...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SETS UP THROUGH SUN AS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDERCUT AVN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DUE TO FRESH SNOWCOVER WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. WENT MORE TOWARDS COOLER ETA TEMPERATURES. IN THE EXTENDED...MRF/UKMET/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. THE SHORTWAVE IS OFF TO THE EAST OF CWA ON SUN WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. ECMWF ONLY MODEL TO KEEP SOME ENERGY FURTHER BACK TO THE SW WITH THE TROUGH OVER CA WHILE OTHER MODELS PUSH TROUGHING INTO THE ROCKIES ON SUN. UKMET...GFS AND MRF CONTINUE TO PUSH TROUGH TO THE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON MON WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW S OF YUMA AZ. NONE OF OTHER MODELS HAS THIS SOLUTION. MRF THEN SWINGS TROUGH INTO CWA LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH IS ALSO WHAT THE UKMET MODEL DOES. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DO NO SUPPORT ECMWF SOLUTION AND SUPPORT THE OTHER 3 MODELS IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. MRF/GFS ENSEMBLES ALL IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH VERY LITTLE VARIATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST TEMPERATURE WISE OR WEATHERWISE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL AND PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY THAT PCPN FALLS. ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT CWA TUE INTO WED WHICH WILL BRING SOME WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WENT CLOSE TO MRF MOS GUIDANCE AS THE TEMPERATURES FORECASTED SEEMED REASONABLE. MICHELS && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING MIZ006-007-085. WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT MIZ001>005-009-084. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ010>013. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING MIZ014. STORM WARNING EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE WARNING WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 330 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 ...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT ALL OF COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM... THE MAIN ISSUES THIS EVENING ARE THE HIGH WINDS AND SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ISSUE SEEMS TO HAVE ENDED AS THE FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE CWA. ACTUALLY NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR PREVIOUS THINKING. THE SYSTEM IS DOING WHAT WE EXPECTED... THAT IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY THANKS TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE 170+ KNOT (FCST BY ETA AND GFS) OVER IOWA. THIS SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT AND "BOMBS" DOWN TO 973 MB ON THE MESO ETA BY 21Z THURSDAY OVER SRN QUEBEC. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER KS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND DEEPENING LOW OVER QUEBEC BY THEN...THE GEOSTROPHIC WIND INCREASES TO 80 TO 90 KNOTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z. THUS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS SHOWING WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER IOWA AND WRN IL AT 20Z...THE FLS RUC SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS AND THE GEOSTROPHIC WIND WITH STRONG CAA...THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE CWA WILL BE CONTINUED. WITH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE THE STORM WARNINGS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND AND WILL ALSO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AGAIN TO COVER MARINE ISSUES. I COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS ON THE BLUFFS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN...MICHIGAN SIDE LAKE SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM REDEVELOPS OVER QUEBEC DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE SNOW ISSUE... THE ETA HAS COME AROUND THE GFS FORECAST OF SEVERAL DAYS AGO IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AND THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS COME CLOSER TO THE ETA ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW... THAT IS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THEN TRIPLE POINT REDEVELOPMENT OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY. SINCE THE COLD AIR POOL (500 COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX/VORTICITY LOBE) DOES NOT CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL 21Z ON THURSDAY... THE DEEP COLD AIR AND THUS THE DEEPER LAKE CONVECTION WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH THAT TIME. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE DEAL WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WE HAVE THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SHIELD TO DEAL WITH. THAT IS MOVING THROUGH MN / WRN WI AND UPPER MI AT 20Z AND WILL REACH WRN LWR BY 03Z. THAT WILL LAST UNTIL 09Z. THE SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST RAIN TO SNOW BTW 03Z AND 06Z OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GIVEN THE BRIEF WINDOW OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND THE STRONG WINDS AND CHANGING WIND DIRECTION WITH TIME (WEST TURNING NORTHWEST)...I CAN NOT SEEM MUCH ACCUMULATION. BESIDE THE SURFACE COLD AIR (SURFACE AIR TEMPS. BELOW FREEZING) WILL NOT GET INTO ANY PART OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN THAT WILL ONLY HAPPEN DUE TO FALLING SNOW. SO MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATION ANYWAY. THUS 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NW SECTIONS WITH THE TERRAIN TO HELP THE ACCUMULATION ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE OUR SW COUNTIES THANKS TO NW WINDS AND -10 TO -11C 850 MB TEMPS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THERE. NOT MUCH MORE SINCE THE HEIGHT OF THE 70 PCT RH STAYS BELOW 10000 FT AND AIR TEMP. WILL BE IN THE 30S... SO SNOW WILL ONLY ACCUMULATE WHEN IT IS SNOWING AT A MODERATE RATE OR GREATER WHICH WILL HARDLY AT ALL. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE SNOW IN THE AIR BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. SINCE I DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SINCE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO WARM TOO MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING... I WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT. SKIES TRIES TO CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. THAT WILL BRING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS SO SKIES WILL ONLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THAT WILL NOT LET IT GET AS COLD AS IT OTHERWISE WOULD. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES IN. REALLY IT COULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY IF THERE IS NOT TO MUCH MID LEVEL CLOUDS (THOSE SHOULD BE GONE BY 18Z TO 21Z). SATURDAY THE SOUTHERN CLOSED UPPER LOW BEING SHEARED OUT MOVES OVER TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODELS ARE REALLY SPARES WITH THE MOISTURE ON THIS SYSTEM. ACTUALLY IT SEEMS UNDER DONE BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. BEING OUT AT 84 HRS WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH THIS BUT HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A ISSUE WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS BEING FORECAST TO COOL BELOW 0C SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS. ZONES SHOULD GO OUT AT 400 PM. .LONG TERM... IN GENERAL...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A SYSTEM PASSING OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES BY...THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRY PERIOD FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH WILL RIDE UP JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE STATE DRIVES THE SYSTEM NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE. THE PCPN TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED DOWN TO -6C OR SO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...STORM WARNING NEW BUFFALO TO MANISTEE STARTING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. && $$ WDM NJJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2003 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND IS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW AND FOG OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA GENERATING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH A OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A 1030MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOVING THE LOW AND FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. KMQT-88D ALREADY DEPICTING A 35KNOT WIND AT 7K FEET. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHEREAS ETA IS SHOWING MUCH WEAKER DYNAMICS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FAVOR THE ETA SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING BETTER LATELY WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING A DECREASE IN CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR SATURATION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONGEST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. BY 21Z THE ISENTROPIC FLOW SHOW STRONG DESCENT OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER ESCANABA. CLOSE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL CHANGE THIS RAIN TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL SET UP LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S TO AROUND 12C BY 00Z OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...PRODUCING SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...DYNAMICS STILL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED SO WILL BUT SNOWFALL DOWN A BIT. WIND ENERGY HOWEVER WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH SO AS NOT TO CHANGE IT. ETA CONTINUES TO HAVE DEEP MOISTURE AND MAINLY DESCENT THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO SURFACE. THE 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS RESIDENT TIME OVER THE LAKE WILL BE SHORTEN CONSIDERABLY AND WILL TEND TO REDUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT KEEP PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE EAST...BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN FORECASTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WRNG TNGT INTO THU MIZ006-007-085. WINTER STORM WRNG THIS AFTN-TNGT MIZ001>005-009-084. SN/BLSN ADVY THIS AFTN INTO TNGT MIZ010. SN/BLSN ADVY TNGT INTO THU MIZ014. HIGH WIND ADVY TNGT MIZ011>013. STORM WRNG E HALF LK SUP. GALE WRNG W HALF LK SUP. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1111 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003 .UPDATE... A NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING. CHRONOLOGICALLY THE FIRST ON THE LIST IS THE DENSE FOG. WHILE A NUMBER OF STATIONS STILL HAD VISIBILITIES 1/4SM OR LESS AT 9AM/14Z...MOST ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO 1-2SM BY 15Z. THIS IS WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH ENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT 11AM EST/16Z. LOW CLOUDS/IFR VIS WILL STILL POSE AN ISSUE FOR AVIATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 11AM. NPW ALREADY ISSUED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW THIN SPOTS DEVELOPING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT STILL WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS AROUND. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT JUST PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 50S AT ADG/TTF...WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INSOLATION THIS MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH JUMPING INTO THE 60S...WHICH IS OF COURSE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS FILL BACK IN. THIS LEADS TO A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP AND SEVERE CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR A T/TD OF 63/53 YIELDS 1000J/KG CAPE. DEWPOINTS COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z ETA FORECAST /12Z RUC IS DRIER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS/. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WIND FIELD IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...850MB WINDS ARE RUNNING NEAR 35KTS/500MB WINDS NEAR 100KTS. 0-3KM HELICITY IS NEAR 200M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS NEAR 70M/S PER 12Z ETA BUFKIT AT DTW. GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL WITH FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT OF STRENGTHENING 170KT 300MB JET. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACH 8C/KM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND STILL NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL THIS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND. WILL CONDUCT A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING. FOLLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SYNOPTIC HIGH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WINDS. VERY STRONG GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...35KT WINDS AT 850MB INCREASE TO 70KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...FROM 1001MB OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z/12 TO ETA-FORECAST 975MB OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z/13. GFS STILL A BIT WEAKER...TAKING THE LOW DOWN TO 980MB BY 12Z/13. STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE...WITH 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER 80 AND OVER 50 KNOTS DOWNSLOPE ON 280/285K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ETA BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAPPING INTO THE 65-70KT CORE NEAR 3KFT. WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. NPW OUT SHORTLY. THANKS FOR COORD GRR. && BRAVENDER .PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003 WIND WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS WELL AS THE DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE SWING. IT IS A GOOD THING THE LEAVES ARE OFF THE TREES...OR ELSE WE WOULD HAVE SOME BIG PROBLEMS. A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (NEAR BOMB -24 MB/24HRS) WILL LEAD TO STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NOT TO MENTION THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON! POTENT UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN...AS PW VALUES ARE WELL OVER 1 INCH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE PRESENT TIME IS TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MONROE/LENAWEE COUNTIES. IN THE SHORTWAVE'S WAKE THIS MORNING...THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL LINGER. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON TAP?...AS THE 850/700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...WHAT KIND OF IMPACT WILL THE MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE ON THE INSTABILITY TODAY? MESOETA INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LI'S OF -4 C ALONG WITH CAPES OF 1000 J/KG. IF THAT KIND OF INSTABILITY IS REACHED...WITH THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR (HELICITY 300 TO 400 M2/S2)...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (WIND DAMAGE) IS LIKELY IF A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS. THE OTHER ASSUMPTION IS UPDRAFTS WILL BE SUSTAINED DESPITE THE TREMENDOUS SHEAR. IMPRESSIVE 120 KNOT JET AT 500 MB EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE SPOT...RIGHT EXIT REGION/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MESOETA SHOWING 700 MB OMEGA BULLSEYE OVER FLINT AT 21Z. MESOETA ALSO INDICATING LOW TO MID 50 SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 40 POPS IN THE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS TO BE AN ALL OR NOTHING EVENT. IF THE CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS...WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY. WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONES...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE MODERATE RISK ISSUED BY SPC. DON'T THINK IT WILL HAPPEN...BUT DETROIT METRO HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD MAX FOR TODAY (69 DEGREES SET IN 1964). MESOETA INDICATING 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES CLIMBING INTO THE 1370S (M) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. DON'T THINK THE DETROIT METRO AREA WILL TRULY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE OCCLUDED. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP...AS TREMENDOUS COLD ADVECTION SETS IN. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA GO FROM +8C TO -8C IN 9 HOURS!! WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...A 16+ MB DIFFERENCE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FROM WEST TO EAST....A WIND ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY (SUSTAINED WINDS >= 30 MPH FOR 1 HR OR GUSTS >= 45 MPH) TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH THE WIND SPEEDS...60 KNOTS AT 850 MB...40 TO 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB. NGM MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED 35 TO 36 KNOTS AT DTW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE WE ARE TALKING PERIOD 2...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE THE WIND ADVISORY. SINCE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT IS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAY)...THINK WE WILL BY UNDER HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. GFS AND ETA BOTH SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TONIGHT...1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES 9 C/KM...ALONG WITH CAPES OF 50 J/KG. WILL BE GOING WITH NUMEROUS POPS...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THE WARM GROUND/SOIL TEMPS (AROUND 40)...WILL CALL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. MORE OF THE SAME FOR THURSDAY. WILL CARRY SCATTERED 50 POP...AS WE SLOWLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE CONTINUED...AS 925 MB WINDS REMAIN STRONG (40+ KNOTS). WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPPING THIS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT GRADUALLY WORKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS USUALLY HAVE A DIFFICULTLY TIME CAPTURING THESE FEATURES...AND SUBSEQUENTLY EJECTING THEM NORTHEASTWARD. THANKS TO CLE AND IWX FOR THEIR COORDINATION THROUGH 12PLANET. && .MARINE... THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEY FORECAST THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE STRAITS THIS EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE DEEPENING TO ABOUT 983 MB. THE VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN THE DOOR ON STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SET UP UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES. MIXING WILL EASILY TAP INTO 50 TO 60 KNOT WINDS AND ADD CONFIDENCE TO THE GOING FORECAST OF STORM FORCE WINDS OVER LAKE HURON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR LAKE ERIE ARE NOT AS BAD AS THEY WERE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS, BUT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE OFFSHORE FOR U.S. WATERS OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE, SO 40KT GALES STILL LOOK GOOD. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING...ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STORM WARNING...LAKE HURON...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GALE WARNING...LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && $$ SF/BT EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1052 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003 ...WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT ALL OF COUNTIES... .UPDATE... WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) AROUND 1100 AM THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT THE 12Z MESO ETA AT 12/06Z... IT HAS 90 KNOTS OF SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC WIND OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF OUR CWA AND 80 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF YOU USE 70 PCT OF THE GEOSTROPHIC WIND FOR THE MAX GUST... THAT WOULD SUGGEST GUSTS OVER 55 KNOTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. THE FSL RUC...WHICH IS DOING WELL AT 14Z FOR THE CURRENT WIND GUSTS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AND EVEN AT BUOYS OVER THE LAKES... SHOWS 50+ KNOT OVER LK MICHIGAN BY 03Z AND 50+ KNOT GUSTS OVER OUR SE COUNTIES BY 06Z. 40+ KNOT GUSTS COVERS THE REST OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MORE THAN 1 MB IN 10 MILES... AND THAT STRONG CAA WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW...ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING MAKES SENSE. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AFTER 09Z SO AT THIS TIME I DO NOT SEE EXTENDING IT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE FRONT IS CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AS I WRITE THIS. THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR AFTER THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...THAT IS A PROBLEM. WE NEED TO GET SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S (BASED ON SOUNDING FROM THE ETA AND RUC) TO GET THE CONVECTION TO BE SURFACE BASED. THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. BEING IN THE EXIT REGION OF 170 KNOT 300 MB JET WITH A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET HELPS TOO. WE JUST NEED TO HEAT THE AIR TO 65F TO GET THIS TO HAPPEN. WITH SO MUCH LOW CLOUD AHEAD OF THE FRONT... THAT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO. EVEN SO...THE RUC AND ETA SUGGEST THE 850 MB DEW POINTS RISE ABOVE 4C BY 21Z. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN AND A HINT OF SOMETHING TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NEAR THE FRONT. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN CWA... AFTER 200 PM. SO I WILL UPDATE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND OTHERWISE LEAVE THE FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...STORM WARNING NEW BUFFALO TO MANISTEE STARTING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. && $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CST WED NOV 12 2003 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MAXIMUM IN THE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES CENTERED BETWEEN MINNEAPOLIS AND NEW ULM. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PROGRESSED IN CONCERT WITH THIS FEATURE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECT THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RUC MODEL FORECASTS THIS PRESSURE RISE MAX JUST EAST OF EAU CLAIRE AT 00Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY REMAIN IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL SUNSET BUT AGAIN EXPECT DECREASING SPEEDS EACH HOUR. THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE PAST OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY RESULTS IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE UNDER THE LOW. IN THIS CASE...THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. WILL USE A BROAD BRUSH AND MENTION A LOW PROB OF PRECIPITATION STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MEAN SPREADS QUITE LOW ON THE ENSEMBLES...SO 00Z/11/12 GFS WAS USED. APPEARS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT PERIOD. THEN ANOTHER TROF MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST MON INTO TUE. HAVE FOLLOWED ENSEMBLE POPS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO NORTHEAST CWA FOR TUESDAY. THEN GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT WITH RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN US. THIS WILL GIVE NICE WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 759 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER NW INDIANA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRATA CU DECK JUST BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT. KILN SHOWING SHOWERS EXITING FA. HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH AND REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES FROM CENTRAL OHIO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CLEAR SKIES INBETWEEN SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS PICK UP DRAMATICALLY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. MOST GUSTS TO 40 KTS WITH ONE OR TWO ASOSS REPORTING NEAR 5O KTS. LATEST ETA/RUC INDICATE 925 WINDS AROUND 50KTS BY 06Z OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS A BIT STRONGER TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THINK WIND ADVISORY WILL HOLD THINGS FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE. NO FURTHER UPDATES EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT. KY...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT. OH...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT. && $$ TIPTON oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1103 AM CST WED NOV 12 2003 SFC BOUNDARY OVER FAR SRN ZONES CONTINUES TO UNDERGO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING CAA TO THE NORTH AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG SRN EDGE OF CLOUD BOUNDARY. FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE RAPID SWD PROGRESS..AND SHUD CLEAR THE OUN CWA BY NOON. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO MAKE SOME RECOVERY HOWEVER. CURRENT MESONET TRENDS INDICATE 3 HR TEMP CHANGES OF +5 TO +10. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED. THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IS CURRENTLY OCCURING OVER NE KS..AND THIS BULLSEYE OF CAA WILL SLIDE WELL TO THE NE OF THE OUN CWA. BETTER SFC CAA..ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN NE KS..WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES BETWEEN 19-21Z. MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS INFILTRATED THE ENTIRE AREA..BUT STREAM OF COPIOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE REST OF THE DAY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT VIZ SAT AND A QUICK LOOK OUT THE WINDOW..INDICATED THAT THERE AREA SOME BREAKS AND RATHER LARGE AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE QUITE THIN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT..BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING AND FILTERED SUN SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WHICH WILL PUT THEM PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH GOING HI TEMP FORECAST. PROFILER WINDS ARE VERY STRONG JUST OFF THE DECK..BUT 70 KT SPEED AT LAMONT EARLIER APPEARS TO BE BIRD CONTAMINATED. WINDS SHUD BE IN LAKE CAUTION CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE DAY..BUT EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING..AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP WILL CONT TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY IN THE NW LATE TONITE/THUR. LATEST ETA RUN IS EVEN COLDER THRU A DEEP LAYER TOMORROW..AND REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH/ POSITION OF VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FORCING BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY 09Z TONITE. DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS WILL BE A CONCERN..BUT MODELS USUALLY DO NOT SATURATE LOW LEVELS FAST ENUF IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. MILLER .OUN... OK...NONE TX...NONE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 418 AM CST WED NOV 12 2003 MESSY FORECAST... AGAIN. A SMALL SURFACE LOW IS SCOOTING EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. IT IS MOVING ALONG AN APPARENT WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST AND WEST FROM THE LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES - IN MOST AREAS - WILL FOLLOW. SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE COOLER AIR CUTS OFF THE UPWARD CLIMB. THE REALLY COOL AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TONIGHT... AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS DISCONTINUITY TO THE TEMPERATURES... JUST A STEADY COOL-DOWN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT SHORT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... BUT THE WIND SHIFT/FRONT TODAY MIGHT KICK UP A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD BRING GENERAL LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST... WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. A COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL... FOLLOWED TIMING OF THE RUC IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM... MESOETA LATER ON... AND GFS FOR LATER PERIODS. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF IN THE LATER PERIODS REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THOSE PERIODS. FCSTID = 23 = CMS OKC 68 40 48 36 / 20 10 20 50 HBR 68 40 44 35 / 20 10 40 40 SPS 75 42 48 38 / 20 20 30 50 GAG 62 30 40 34 / 10 10 50 30 PNC 65 36 48 35 / 10 00 10 30 DUA 77 44 55 38 / 30 10 20 40 .OUN... OK...NONE TX...NONE ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 633 AM CST WED NOV 12 2003 HAD TO MAKE UPDATED TO ZONES BASED ON SLOWER MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT. AS TEMPS MIX AHEAD OF THIS SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY SEEING THERE HIGHS FOR THE DAY...SO WORDED SOUTHERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH THEY MIGHT CLIMB UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WIND WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRONT THIS MORNING. 09Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING LARGE AREA OF 6 TO 8 MB PRESSURE RISES SLIDING ACROSS NW SD. WINDS HAVE REALLY PICKED UP ACROSS WESTERN SD WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. GETS TRICKIER AS FRONT ENTERS OUR CWA WITH SOME PARAMETERS HINTING AT REACHING WIND WARNING LEVELS THIS MORNING. IF WINDS WERE TO MIX DOWN 100 PERCENT FROM 850...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. FEEL THAT WE SHOULD LOSE A LITTLE MOMENTUM AS WINDS NOT TOTALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WINDS WONT QUITE BE THAT STRONG SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY FOR WINDS. THIS IN LINE WITH RUC2 AND BUFKIT MEAN MIXED LAYER ESTIMATES. BASED ON 88D IMAGERY...A FEW AREAS OF PRECIP FORMING AHEAD OF FRONT...FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS H500 DIV Q AXIS SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT. AS IM NOT QUITE SURE IF THE SYSTEM WILL KICK OUT AS FAST AS THE ETA IS ADVERTISING. .FSD... IA...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES IAZ001>003...IAZ012>014... IAZ020>022...IAZ031>032. MN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES MNZ071>072...MNZ080>081... MNZ089>090...MNZ097>098. NE...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES NEZ013>014. SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES SDZ038...SDZ050... SDZ052>053...SDZ057>059...SDZ063>064. WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES SDZ039>040...SDZ054>056... SDZ060>062...SDZ065>071. $$ JRM sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1023 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 ******************************************************************** 1023 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 OVERNIGHT UPDATE... LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS RIGHT ALONG FRONT...JUST NOW CROSSING THE AREA. FLOOD WATERS ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE. ALL FLOOD AND THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FOR THE AREA HAVE EXPIRED...LEAVING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUST FROM RUC ALG TOOL SHOWS 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TO 55 MPH GUSTS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER DEPICT THE FRONT. REDUCED HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ZONES WVZ005>011... WVZ013>020...WVZ024>040...WVZ046>047. VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ZONES VAZ003>004. KY...WIND ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ZONES KYZ101>103...KYZ105. OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ZONES OHZ066>067... OHZ075>076...OHZ083>087. && $$ TRM ******************************************************************** 304 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 ...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BUSY PERIOD WITH CONTINUED HIGH WATER PROBLEMS...THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND. WILL ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUING RAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ALSO WILL BE ISSUING WIND ADVISORY WITH STRONG GUSTS FORECAST BEHIND FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLE. THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET DISCRETE STORMS WITH LOW INSTABILITY FROM RAIN TODAY. AS COLD FRONT RUSHES THROUGH...H850 TEMPS TUMBLE. EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNRISE. AS HEART OF COLD AIR POURS IN...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP TOMORROW IS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLAKE ANYWHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS TOMORROW...INCLUDING AT CRW. MOS TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD COLDER MAV TEMPS THOUGH. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS TOMORROW. ...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MODELS PULL OUT UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW MODERATION TREND. MODELS DO SHOW UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LIFTING AND SHEARING OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER OUR CWA SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. NEXT BIG UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MODELS AGREE THIS WILL BE A VERY WET SYSTEM...BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS IS FASTER WHILE THE EURO MODELS ARE SLOWER. WE PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GFS GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WE ARE UNDER. THUS...THE FRONT COMES ACROSS TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND IT. THIS MAY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A MIX IN THE LOWLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRYING BUT COLD FOR WEDNESDAY. CL/JMV ******************************************************************** 1017 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003 CANCELLED OLD FLOOD WATCH...AND ADDING A NEW FLOOD WATCH TO THE SOUTH. AREA RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME TRAINING OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ETA RUN SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY NOT MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG IT UNTIL THE STRONG COLD FRONT CAN KICK EVERYTHING OUT TONIGHT. GETTING SOME MINOR PROBLEMS IN THE NEW WATCH COUNTIES AND AM CONCERNED THAT CONTINUED RAINS MAY CAUSE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING. GRIDWISE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS...INCREASING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALSO DROPPED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH CONTINUED RAINS. CL ******************************************************************** 415 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF NOT ONLY THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY...BUT ALSO THE RAIN THIS MORNING WITH THE GOOD LIFT AND MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINFALL. HAVE FOUND LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT WHAT THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN AND PRETTY MUCH RAN WITH THE SOLUTION. CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING AS RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 1.5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED. FORTUNATELY...THE MODELS SHOW AND THE RADAR TRENDS ARE CONFIRMING THAT THE RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HOPEFULLY...MOST AREAS WILL AVOID FLOODING CONDITIONS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...A BRIEF RESPITE CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. SO ONCE THE SHOWERS END...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES DESPITE THE LACK OF SUN. BUT BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. WITH 850 WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS FORECAST...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND WILL BE GUSTY. IF THESE WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD GET CLOSE TO REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...IT SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN AND COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO SNOW. BUT WITH THE GROUND TEMPERATURE SO WARM...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL MAV/MET GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BUT THIS ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WINS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT...WHICH IS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD AND WINDY DAY ON TAP BEHIND FRONT. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE INSTABILITY SHOWERS. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE MOISTURE LAYER AS FAIRLY SHALLOW. EVEN SO...UPSLOPE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG WINDS...SO WILL KEEP INSTABILITY SHOWERS EAST OF OHIO RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AVN HAS CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW. ESS/RPY ******************************************************************** wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 945 PM CST WED NOV 12 2003 .DISCUSSION...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTD IN ERN WI. FAST-MOVING DEEPENING SFC LOW NEAR THE SOO WAS GENERATING INTENSE ISALLOBARIC ACCELERATIONS WHICH WERE AIDING STG WINDS. 00Z RUC INDICATED 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS OVER DOOR COUNTY ALL NGT...AND WITH THE ADDED DESTABLIZATION OF THE AIR FLOWING ACRS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE BAY... THOSE WINDS WL LIKELY CONT TO REACH THE SFC. WL CONT HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOOR COUNTY OVERNIGHT...AND WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE EAST. FARTHER W...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS STARTING TO RELAX AND THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES WERE E OF THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD CONT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO THE WORST IS OVER. AS A RESULT...WL DROP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. FINAL FCST CONCERN WAS THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY. SNOW WAS SLOW TO GET GOING...BUT RECENT REPORTS INDICATED UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE PHELPS AREA...AND SNOW WAS STILL FALLING THERE. GIVEN THE AMNT OF WIND...DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING EVEN THOUGH AMNTS WL LIKELY NOT BE THAT GREAT. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT WIZ005- WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT WIZ011>013-020-021-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074- HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT WIZ022- && $$ SKOWRONSKI/ECKBERG WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 419 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXCEPT FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. COLDER AIR MOVING BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GASPE PENINSULA WILL CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AROUND SUNRISE SPREADING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. GFS AND GEM VERY CLOSE AND CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING LOW TO NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ETA WHICH HAD BEEN TRACKING STORM CLOSE TO THE GFS NOW THE ODD MODEL OUT BY KEEPING LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND HENCE PROVIDING A MUCH COLDER PROFILE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUC RUN AND THUS FORECAST MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS AND KEEP POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ZONE 1. ACROSS ZONES 2...3...AND 4 COULD SEE INITIAL SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING AND THEN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WITH VIGOROUS VORT MAX. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE STATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS UPPER DRY SLOT CROSSES THE STATE BRINGING STEADY PRECIP TO AN END WITH SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INDICATIONS OF THIS UPPER DRY SLOT EVIDENT ALREADY IN SAT IMG NOW ENTERING WESTERN NEW YORK. 925MB WINDS FORECASTED BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KTS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDE FRONT. WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX DOWN HIGHEST WINDS BUT STILL FEEL POTENTIAL FOR WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SO WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION KEEPING WINDS BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. GFS QPF AMOUNTS INDICATE WRAP TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WHERE 2 FEET OF SNOW COULD FALL. AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO ADVECT COLD AIR ACROSS THE STATE CHANGING ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOWSHOWERS. BY FRIDAY LOW WILL DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF MAINE. WILL ADD NORTHERN ZONES TO HIGH WIND WATCH FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THIS PACKAGE. WITH STRONG WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A NASTY DAY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. DOWNEAST WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES EARLY BUT DOWN GLIDE WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT BY AFTERNOON. MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE TODAY WITH THE WARM ADVCN PTN IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDED FRONT. WINDS MAY DROP JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA THIS EVENING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL INCREASE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STORM WARNING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN. AVIATION....IFR CEILING WITH MVFR VSBY ACROSS THE NORTH SITES TODAY. IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VSBY AT KBGR UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO VFR. .CAR...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ZONES...29-30. HIGH WIND WATCH FRI-FRI NIGHT ZONES 1-6...10-11...15>17...29-32. GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM WARNING FRI AND FRI NIGHT. PUBLIC: FOSTER MARINE/AVIATION: NORCROSS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 330 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF FM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GRT LKS DOWNWND OF RDG ACRS SW CAN. POTENT SHRTWV OVER THE GRT LKS WITH ACCOMPANYING 160KT H3 JET MAX JUST S OF THE LKS AND 12HR H3 HGT FALLS AS HI AS 200M AT GRB PUSHING E THRU THE TROF. PATTERN APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH 12HR H3 HGT RISES APRCHG 300M IN MT INDICATING UPR RDG WL BE PUSHING EWD. POWERHOUSE 988MB SFC LO AT 03Z OVER NRN LK HURON AND MOVG STEADILY EWD. SHARP PRES GRADIENT/50KT H85 WNDS/PRES RISE MAX OF NRLY 8MB/ 3HRS BTWN THIS LO AND 1034MB SFC HI IN THE PLAINS CAUSING STORM FORCE WNDS AT STDM4 WITH WND ADVY SPEEDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WRN CWA...WHERE PRES GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO SLACKEN. DEEP COMMA HEAD MSTR/HEAVIER SN TO NW OF SFC LO ALSO SHIFTING STEADILY EWD PER IR SAT PIX/MQT 88D REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF THIS PCPN SHIELD JUST EXITING ERN MQT COUNTY AT 04Z. SOME LK EFFECT CLD/-SHSN NOTED ACRS WRN LK SUP/WRN ZNS...BUT INTENSITY LIMITED BY MORE ACYC FLOW/ DRY AIR UPWIND OF THE LK PER SFC DWPTS FALLING NR 10F/INVERTED V LOOK TO 00Z INL SDNG DESPITE H85 THERMAL TROF OF -11C MOVG OVER THE WRN LK (DELTA T APRCH 17C). LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AT 08Z SHOWS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LES BAND (REFLECTIVITIES >28DBZ) STRETCHING FM LK NIPIGON INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY...BUT LES BANDS ELSEWHERE LOOK LESS POTENT (REFLECTIVITIES GENERAL AOB 20DBZ). MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TIMING THE END OF THIS LATEST WINTER STORM TDAY/GOING HEADLINES...AND THEN TEMPS TNGT THRU FRI AS UPR RDG TO THE W PUSHES EWD. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DEEPENING SFC LO MOVG STEADILY E INTO SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z THU...AND THEN OVER NRN ME BY 00Z FRI. DEEP MSTR IN COMMA HEAD OF SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE E OF CWA BY 12Z... ENDING ANY FURTHER LK ENHANCED SN BY FCST ISSUANCE. SHARP NNW CYC FLOW...WITH ETA SHOWING H925 WNDS AS HI AS 40-45KT...FCST TO LINGER OVER THE ERN ZNS THIS MRNG. BUT FLOW PROGGED TO BCM MORE NEUTRAL BY 18Z (H925 WND SPEEDS DOWN TO 25KT OVER THE W TO 35KT OVER THE E) AND ACYC BY 00Z (20 TO 30KT H925 WNDS). SINCE ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN FALLING TOWARD 3K FT BY 00Z UNDER STEADILY RISING HGTS WITH INCRSGLY CONFLUENT UPR HGTS...XPCT LINGERING LK EFFECT SN TO DIMINISH STEADILY DURG THE DAY...EVEN ACRS THE E WITH FVRBL NW FLOW AND LONGER FETCH. ALTHOUGH GFS/ETA SHOW H85 TEMP OVER ERN LK SUP FALLING TO -13C (DELTA T 18C)...DRY LLVL AIR UPSTREAM/INVERTED V LOOK TO ETA FCST SDNGS EVEN AT ERY DOWNWND OF LONGER FETCH WARRANT A FCST LWR ACCUM THAN THE 1-3"/6 HRS INDICATED BY LES CHART FOR XPCTD INVRN HGT/DELTA T...FCSTG UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. DESPITE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE ADDITIONAL SN AMTS TDAY...WL HAVE TO HOLD ON TO HEADLINES AT LEAST FOR THIS MRNG DUE TO LINGERING STRG NW WND. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO DOWNGRADE GOING BLIZZARD WRNG IN ALGER/ LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT TO LES/BLSN ADVY DUE TO LESS SN THAN PREVIOUSLY XPCTD AND RATHER WET NATURE OF SN THAT HAS FALLEN...WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT BLSN SOMEWHAT. NO VSBY AOB 1/4SM EVER REPORTED. HAVE DISCONTINUED WIND ADVYS FOR SHELTERED SCNTRL ZNS WITH EARLIER PASSAGE OF PRES RISE MAX AND WND GUSTS OBSVD UNDER 40 MPH LAST SVRL HOURS. ALSO CANX ADVYS FOR NW ZNS GIVEN MODEST LES OBSVD AND WND SPEEDS UNDER ADVY LVLS. AS FOR TEMPS TDAY...GFS/ETA SHOW H85 TEMPS REACHING ARND -5C OVER THE FAR W AT 00Z AND ABOUT -12C OVER THE E. TMAX YDAY UPSTREAM OF CWA 27-35...AND THESE NUMBERS COMPARE FVRBLY TO MOS/GOING FCST. READINGS WL BE A BIT HIER ACRS THE FAR W...WHERE WAD ON THE BACK SIDE OF RDG AXIS WL COMMENCE THIS AFTN WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE. TNGT...MODELS SHOW INCRSG WAD/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 290K SFC AS WARMER AIR ALF PUSHES E INTO RETREATING LLVL COLD AIR SLOWED DOWN BY DEEPENING CYC TO THE E. GFS/ETA/NGM ALL SHOW INCRSG RH ON 290K SFC (ABOUT H7) EVEN THOUGH NO CLD NOTED UPSTREAM ATTM. DRYNESS OF AIRMASS SHUD RESTRICT CLD COVER TO SCT-BKN AC AND PREVENT ANY PCPN WITH NO OTHER DYNAMIC MECHANISM UNDER CONTD DNVA AND RISING/ CONFLUENT UPR HGTS. COMBINATION OF THE CLD COVER AND STEADY WSW WND (ETA FCSTG H925 WND 20 TO 30KT ALL NGT) WL PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING NR OBSVD LO DWPTS UPSTREAM. GFS/ETA/NGM MOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MIN TEMPS AND LOOKS RNSBL. FRI APPEARS WL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH BAND OF WAD CLD SHIFTING TO THE E PER RH FCST ON 290K SFC UNDER CONTD RISING HGTS/SFC RDGING. ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE AT INCRSG H85 TEMP THAN GFS...BY F48 ETA INDICATES H85 TEMP AT IWD/ERY UP TO +5C/+3C...WHILE GFS FCSTS +3C/ -1C. CONSIDERING PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPR FLOW...THE SHIFT OF THE OVRRNG CLD BAND TO THE E DURG THE PREVIOUS NGT...XPCTCD MOSUNNY SKIES AND THE W SFC FLOW FCST BY ALL MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO TREND CLOSER TO THE HIER ETA MOS/FCST H85 TEMPS. ETA FCST SDNGS SUPPORT TMAX WELL INTO THE 40S...BUT HAVE SHADED A FEW DEGREES OFF THESE HIER READINGS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS ACRS THE E CLOSER TO THE RETREATING COLD AIR. QUITE WX PATTERN APPEARS WL HOLD FRI NGT WITH RDGING SFC-ALF HOLDING IN. BUT SOME HIER CLD ASSOCIATED WITH SLUGGISH CUTOFF LO APRCHG FM THE SW MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN ZNS DURG THE NGT. HAVE OPTED TO ADD LO CHC POPS FOR LATER SAT INTO SUN ACRS THE SRN TIER TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL MODELS GENERATING QPF IN THESE AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV GRINDING N INTO RDG OVER ONTARIO. LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH MAIN JET DYNAMICS REMAINING TO THE S UNDER FASTER FLOW ALF WL KEEP ANY PCPN ON THE LGT SIDE. GFS/ETA FCST H100-85 THKNS SUG PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA. COORDINATED WITH APX. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LK EFFECT SN AND BLSN ADVY THIS MORNING MIZ006-007-085. GALE WRNG E HALF LK SUP. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 500 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 ******************************************************************** 500 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING VERY COLD AIR READY TO PLUNGE INTO THE AREA TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SHOWING THIS TREND TO BE CORRECT AS READINGS HAVE FALLEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES SINCE 4Z AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z...SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TEMPERATURES TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 7 AM FOR HIGHS. HAVE LEFT THE POPS IN PLAY FOR THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES TODAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE NOT EXTENDING MUCH ABOVE 800 MB...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DEPENDED ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. ONCE READINGS FALL BELOW ABOUT 38 OR 39 DEGREES...WOULD EXPECT THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TO OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT MORE CLOUDS IN THAN THE MODEL SUGGEST...IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...AS THE 850 MOISTURE TAKES UNTIL ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING THE NORM OVERNIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WINDS SHOULD BE UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM SEEING GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. BUT WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS...THE MAV LOWS LOOK WAY TOO WARM. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE FWC/MET. FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER. AVN MOS HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TOO COLD ONCE AGAIN...SO WENT ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. ADDED A SMALL POP TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES WVZ009>011...WVZ017>020... WVZ027>032...WVZ035>040...WVZ046>047. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ066>067...OHZ075>076. && $$ ESS/RPY ******************************************************************** 1023 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 OVERNIGHT UPDATE... LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS RIGHT ALONG FRONT...JUST NOW CROSSING THE AREA. FLOOD WATERS ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE. ALL FLOOD AND THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FOR THE AREA HAVE EXPIRED...LEAVING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUST FROM RUC ALG TOOL SHOWS 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TO 55 MPH GUSTS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER DEPICT THE FRONT. REDUCED HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY. TRM ******************************************************************** 304 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 ...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BUSY PERIOD WITH CONTINUED HIGH WATER PROBLEMS...THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND. WILL ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUING RAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ALSO WILL BE ISSUING WIND ADVISORY WITH STRONG GUSTS FORECAST BEHIND FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLE. THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET DISCRETE STORMS WITH LOW INSTABILITY FROM RAIN TODAY. AS COLD FRONT RUSHES THROUGH...H850 TEMPS TUMBLE. EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNRISE. AS HEART OF COLD AIR POURS IN...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP TOMORROW IS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLAKE ANYWHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS TOMORROW...INCLUDING AT CRW. MOS TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD COLDER MAV TEMPS THOUGH. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS TOMORROW. ...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MODELS PULL OUT UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW MODERATION TREND. MODELS DO SHOW UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LIFTING AND SHEARING OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER OUR CWA SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. NEXT BIG UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MODELS AGREE THIS WILL BE A VERY WET SYSTEM...BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS IS FASTER WHILE THE EURO MODELS ARE SLOWER. WE PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GFS GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WE ARE UNDER. THUS...THE FRONT COMES ACROSS TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND IT. THIS MAY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A MIX IN THE LOWLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRYING BUT COLD FOR WEDNESDAY. CL/JMV ******************************************************************** 1017 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003 CANCELLED OLD FLOOD WATCH...AND ADDING A NEW FLOOD WATCH TO THE SOUTH. AREA RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME TRAINING OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ETA RUN SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY NOT MOVING MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH PRECIP CONTINUING ALONG IT UNTIL THE STRONG COLD FRONT CAN KICK EVERYTHING OUT TONIGHT. GETTING SOME MINOR PROBLEMS IN THE NEW WATCH COUNTIES AND AM CONCERNED THAT CONTINUED RAINS MAY CAUSE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING. GRIDWISE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS...INCREASING SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALSO DROPPED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WITH CONTINUED RAINS. CL ******************************************************************** wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 930 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE AT MID MORNING. FRONT WILL REACH INTO EC FL THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG IT...JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER MISS VALLEY. TEMPS WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH COOL NORTH WINDS. LOW TEMPS FRI MORN WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...BUT NOT NEAR ANY RECORD VALUES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. && .MARINE...RECENT WEATHER REPORT FROM BUOY 009 WAS NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KNOTS AND 4 FOOT SEAS. LATEST RUC/ETA12 ANALYSIS/FORECAST SERIES SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND THE MAIN WIND SURGE STARTING AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...WILL KEEP CURRENT WORDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND JUST FRESHEN UP THE ONGOING CWF WORDING. && .MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ...SCA LATE THIS AFTN FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH. ...FIRE WX WATCH FRIDAY FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE... OSCEOLA AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. && $$ SHORT TERM...GLITTO LONG TERM...WIMMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1112 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 UPDATED...STRONG GRADIENT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW CAUSING STRONGER WINDS. HAVE UPDATED COASTAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZONES FOR WINDS. HAVE ALSO UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. OTHRWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS REASONABLE. .SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXCEPT FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. COLDER AIR MOVING BEHIND THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GASPE PENINSULA WILL CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AROUND SUNRISE SPREADING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. GFS AND GEM VERY CLOSE AND CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVING LOW TO NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ETA WHICH HAD BEEN TRACKING STORM CLOSE TO THE GFS NOW THE ODD MODEL OUT BY KEEPING LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND HENCE PROVIDING A MUCH COLDER PROFILE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUC RUN AND THUS FORECAST MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS AND KEEP POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ZONE 1. ACROSS ZONES 2...3...AND 4 COULD SEE INITIAL SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING AND THEN A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS WITH VIGOROUS VORT MAX. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE STATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS UPPER DRY SLOT CROSSES THE STATE BRINGING STEADY PRECIP TO AN END WITH SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INDICATIONS OF THIS UPPER DRY SLOT EVIDENT ALREADY IN SAT IMG NOW ENTERING WESTERN NEW YORK. 925MB WINDS FORECASTED BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KTS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDE FRONT. WITH FRONTAL INVERSION IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX DOWN HIGHEST WINDS BUT STILL FEEL POTENTIAL FOR WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SO WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION KEEPING WINDS BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. GFS QPF AMOUNTS INDICATE WRAP TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WHERE 2 FEET OF SNOW COULD FALL. AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO ADVECT COLD AIR ACROSS THE STATE CHANGING ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOWSHOWERS. BY FRIDAY LOW WILL DRIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF MAINE. WILL ADD NORTHERN ZONES TO HIGH WIND WATCH FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THIS PACKAGE. WITH STRONG WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A NASTY DAY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. DOWNEAST WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES EARLY BUT DOWN GLIDE WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT BY AFTERNOON. MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE TODAY WITH THE WARM ADVCN PTN IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUDED FRONT. WINDS MAY DROP JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA THIS EVENING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL INCREASE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STORM WARNING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN. AVIATION....IFR CEILING WITH MVFR VSBY ACROSS THE NORTH SITES TODAY. IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VSBY AT KBGR UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY TO VFR. .CAR...WIND WIND WARNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ZONES...15>17...29-30. HIGH WIND WATCH FRI-FRI NIGHT ZONES 1-6...10-11...15>17...29-32. GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STORM WARNING FRI AND FRI NIGHT. PUBLIC: FOSTER MARINE/AVIATION: NORCROSS UPDATE: WOLFE me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1120 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 .UPDATE... NEXT QUESTION IS WITH SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL WITH LAKE EFFECT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE SHOW MULTI-BANDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...SOME WITH ORIGINS FROM LAKES SUPERIOR AND NIPIGON PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...BEING DISPLACED WELL INTO THE CWA GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION IS OVER...BUT 850MB TEMPS DO COOL A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO -12C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. INVERSION DEVELOPS AND DROPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... DOWN TO ABOUT 4KFT/5KFT PER 12Z RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. 1000-850MB RH DOES REMAIN ABOVE 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CLOSER TO 6-8C. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND PROVIDE SOME INTENSITY GAGE FOR SNOW BANDS SEEN ON SATELLITE. ONLY DRAWBACK IS THAT MTC IS THE ONLY STATION TO REPORT ANY SNOW /10SM -SHSN/ IN THE CWA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SPOTTER CALLS ALSO INDICATE ONLY FLURRIES UNDER THE HEAVIER ECHOES. WILL UPDATE THE WEATHER TO REFLECT SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A DECENT AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. COULD ARGUE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVER FOR SOME AREAS. HOWEVER WITH 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES OVER 9C/KM AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PLUS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FROM THE LAKES...IT SHOULD STILL END UP AN OVERALL MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND CU DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO HELP TO FILL IN SOME FLURRIES IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT MAKING IT OVER FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY EITHER. CURRENT HIGH TEMP GRIDS ARE SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN 14Z LAMP GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE LAMP IS A BIT COOL WITH THE 16Z OBSERVATIONS. ALSO...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AGAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING. SUSTAINED 25-35 WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH LOOK TO HOLD US FOR THE AFTERNOON. BRAVENDER UPDATE...945 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 THIS UPDATE FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES. SURFACE LOW NOW INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC...AND IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO RELAX /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/. MULTIPLE FACTORS WHICH LEAD TO THE HIGH WINDS OVERNIGHT /REFERENCE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ARBPNSDTX FOR LIST OF OBSERVATIONS...MANY OF WHICH WERE 60MPH OR HIGHER/ ARE DIMINISHING FOR TODAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ISENTROPIC DESCENT FOR BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT FROM PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLE ARE EAST OF THE STATE. TIGHTER GRADIENT STILL OVER LAKE HURON THOUGH...WHERE SOUTHERN BUOY 45008 CONTINUES TO REPORT PEAK GUSTS OF 58 KNOTS /FROM 09Z TO 14Z/. LATEST 9AM EST WIND REPORTS FROM LOCAL ASOS/AWOS STATIONS SHOW GUSTS DROPPING BELOW 40 MPH AT MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL MIXING. 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS 50KTS OF WIND AT 2KFT...WITH 1430Z VWP SHOWING 40KTS AT 2KFT. 12Z FSL RUC ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +40KT RANGE BY NOON. WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE AT 10AM...AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. && BRAVENDER .PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 WIND HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. 979 MB LOW WAS NEAR OTTAWA AND WILL STILL DEEPEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GRADIENT WAS REALLY TIGHTENING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE CHANGES RIGHT AT 09Z TO 12Z. BUFKIT SHOWS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TAPPING INTO THE 60 KTS THAT ARE AT ABOUT 3000 FEET AS INDICATED IN THE LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER. IN ADDITION TO THE REPORTING STATIONS...DID HAVE A SPOTTER MEASURE AN 83 MPH WIND GUST AROUND 1 A.M IN THE CITY OF FLINT. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 15Z AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY...AND THE SO DOES THE BEST WIND FORCING SUCH AS THE GRADIENT...PRESSURE CHANGES...AND ISENTROPIC DECENT. WILL STILL HAVE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD SOON BE SNOW...AND FORECAST WILL ONLY HAVE SNOW FOR TODAY WHEN ISSUED. WILL HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. 80H TEMPS WILL DROP TO ABOUT -11C TO -12C WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 9 TO 10K FEET. WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BELOW 7K FEET TO GET SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS...PERHAPS A DUSTING AT BEST WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWER. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW...WILL DIMINISH MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS...TO JUST FLURRIES. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND LATE MORNING...AND THEN RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH THE DRIER AIR... ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WITH PLENTY OF 70H MOISTURE AROUND. STILL SOMEWHAT OF A GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND THE WINDS...WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT. THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVE OUT FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING SOME SUNSHINE. WITH THE SUN...WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FINALLY...DEEPER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SURFACE TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ON SATURDAY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAK BUT DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER BE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND ADVISORY...ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...THIS AFTERNOON. STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...LAKE HURON. STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...LAKE ST. CLAIR. && $$ RBP EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 945 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 .UPDATE... THIS UPDATE FOCUS IS ON WINDS AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES. SURFACE LOW NOW INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC...AND IS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO RELAX /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/. MULTIPLE FACTORS WHICH LEAD TO THE HIGH WINDS OVERNIGHT /REFERENCE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ARBPNSDTX FOR LIST OF OBSERVATIONS...MANY OF WHICH WERE 60MPH OR HIGHER/ ARE DIMINISHING FOR TODAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ISENTROPIC DESCENT FOR BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT FROM PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLE ARE EAST OF THE STATE. TIGHTER GRADIENT STILL OVER LAKE HURON THOUGH...WHERE SOUTHERN BUOY 45008 CONTINUES TO REPORT PEAK GUSTS OF 58 KNOTS /FROM 09Z TO 14Z/. LATEST 9AM EST WIND REPORTS FROM LOCAL ASOS/AWOS STATIONS SHOW GUSTS DROPPING BELOW 40 MPH AT MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL MIXING. 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS 50KTS OF WIND AT 2KFT...WITH 1430Z VWP SHOWING 40KTS AT 2KFT. 12Z FSL RUC ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS INCREASING BACK INTO THE +40KT RANGE BY NOON. WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRE AT 10AM...AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. && BRAVENDER .PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 WIND HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. 979 MB LOW WAS NEAR OTTAWA AND WILL STILL DEEPEN AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GRADIENT WAS REALLY TIGHTENING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE CHANGES RIGHT AT 09Z TO 12Z. BUFKIT SHOWS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TAPPING INTO THE 60 KTS THAT ARE AT ABOUT 3000 FEET AS INDICATED IN THE LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES. WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER. IN ADDITION TO THE REPORTING STATIONS...DID HAVE A SPOTTER MEASURE AN 83 MPH WIND GUST AROUND 1 A.M IN THE CITY OF FLINT. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 15Z AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY...AND THE SO DOES THE BEST WIND FORCING SUCH AS THE GRADIENT...PRESSURE CHANGES...AND ISENTROPIC DECENT. WILL STILL HAVE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD SOON BE SNOW...AND FORECAST WILL ONLY HAVE SNOW FOR TODAY WHEN ISSUED. WILL HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. 80H TEMPS WILL DROP TO ABOUT -11C TO -12C WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 9 TO 10K FEET. WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BELOW 7K FEET TO GET SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS...PERHAPS A DUSTING AT BEST WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWER. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW...WILL DIMINISH MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS...TO JUST FLURRIES. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID AND LATE MORNING...AND THEN RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH THE DRIER AIR... ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WITH PLENTY OF 70H MOISTURE AROUND. STILL SOMEWHAT OF A GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND THE WINDS...WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT. THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVE OUT FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING SOME SUNSHINE. WITH THE SUN...WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. FINALLY...DEEPER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SURFACE TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ON SATURDAY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAK BUT DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER BE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND ADVISORY...ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...THIS AFTERNOON. STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...LAKE HURON. STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...LAKE ST. CLAIR. && $$ RBP EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1000 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 .DISCUSSION... .UPDATE...FORECAST IS GOING AS PLANNED WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES/DAMAGE AND WINDS AS HIGH AS 52 KT AT AMBROSE LIGHT. HIGHEST LAND BASED WIND IS 48 KT AT LGA. THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT...WHICH COMBINED WITH A WET GROUND FROM THIS FALL'S RAIN AND THE VERY GUSTY NATURE OF THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...POWER OUTAGES...ETC. THIS EVENT IS SIMILAR TO...IF NOT WORSE THEN...THE EVENT OF DEC 12 2000. EXAMINATION OF 12Z ACARS WINDS REPORTS SHOWS THAT 09Z RUC WINDS ARE TOO LOW AND THAT EVEN 06Z ETA WINDS ARE FEW KNOTS BELOW OBSERVED. AS COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER LEVEL WINDS WILL WORK DOWN TO SURFACE. USING A 90% RULE OF WINDS ALOFT...RESULTS IN PEAK SURFACE OF 60 KT OR 70 MPH. WILL HEADLINE...WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. SKYWARN SPOTTERS...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGE VIA EMAIL... OKX.SPOTTERS@NOAA.GOV AS FOR THE UPDATE...A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. **************** PREVIOUS 330 AM DISCUSSION ******************** FRIDAY WL STILL BE RATHER BREEZY...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY. MAY ACTUALLY STILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY (PERHAPS EVEN AN EXTENSION OF THE WARNING) AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND AN ADVISORY INTO A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY AS GRAD STILL STRONG AND MIXING STILL GOOD. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO GET A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS. NO BIG CHANGES WITH THE REST OF THE FCST. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS HALFWAY DECENT AS SFC RIDGING STAYS OVERHEAD. MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE PICTURE, HOWEVER. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WL BE MID NEXT WEEK. ******************** END PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ******************** && .AVIATION...VFR CIGS AND VIS. WINDS GUST TO 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...IN THE FORM OF SNOW! BEST CHANCE IS IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...BUT WITH FLURRIES IN LI AND CT. && .MARINE...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE GALE FORCE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA...FINALLY RELAXING GRADIENT ENOUGH TO BRING WINDS AND SEA BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOW WATER PROBLEMS AT LOW TIDE FROM TONIGHT ONWARD WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES NEARING 4 FT BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL MINOR WASHOVERS AT HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI FOR WEST-FACING SHORES OF THE GREAT SOUTH BAY IN SUFFOLK COUNTY...IN SHIRLEY AND ALSO POSSIBLY NEAR WESTHAMPTON AND SHINNECOCK HILLS. DECIDING ON A COSTAL FLOOD WARNING OR STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA. && .HYDROLOGY...NO PROBLEMS DURING THE FCST PERIOD AS NO HVY RAIN IS FCST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT...CTZ005>012. NJ...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT...NJZ002>006-011. NY...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY TIL MIDNIGHT...NYZ067>081. MARINE...STORM WARNING ALL WATERS. $$ TONGUE ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 935 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 ******************************************************************** 935 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 MORNING UPDATE... IN WAKE OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS AREA...COLD AIR SURGE HAS COMMENCED AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE IN TIGHT GRADIENT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS HANDLED WELL. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...POSSIBLY BEING OFFSET BY SOME SUN ACROSS SOUTH...THINK TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE THAT WORDING CHANGE IN UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH AND IN MOUNTAINS AS WIND GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 40 MPH AND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING DURING DAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES WVZ009>011...WVZ017>020... WVZ027>032...WVZ035>040...WVZ046>047. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ066>067...OHZ075>076. && $$ HC ******************************************************************** 500 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING VERY COLD AIR READY TO PLUNGE INTO THE AREA TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SHOWING THIS TREND TO BE CORRECT AS READINGS HAVE FALLEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES SINCE 4Z AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z...SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TEMPERATURES TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 7 AM FOR HIGHS. HAVE LEFT THE POPS IN PLAY FOR THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES TODAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE NOT EXTENDING MUCH ABOVE 800 MB...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DEPENDED ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. ONCE READINGS FALL BELOW ABOUT 38 OR 39 DEGREES...WOULD EXPECT THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TO OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT MORE CLOUDS IN THAN THE MODEL SUGGEST...IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...AS THE 850 MOISTURE TAKES UNTIL ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING THE NORM OVERNIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WINDS SHOULD BE UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM SEEING GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. BUT WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS...THE MAV LOWS LOOK WAY TOO WARM. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE FWC/MET. FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER. AVN MOS HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TOO COLD ONCE AGAIN...SO WENT ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. ADDED A SMALL POP TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ESS/RPY ******************************************************************** 1023 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 OVERNIGHT UPDATE... LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS RIGHT ALONG FRONT...JUST NOW CROSSING THE AREA. FLOOD WATERS ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE. ALL FLOOD AND THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FOR THE AREA HAVE EXPIRED...LEAVING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUST FROM RUC ALG TOOL SHOWS 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TO 55 MPH GUSTS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER DEPICT THE FRONT. REDUCED HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY. TRM ******************************************************************** 304 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 ...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... BUSY PERIOD WITH CONTINUED HIGH WATER PROBLEMS...THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND. WILL ALLOW FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUING RAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ALSO WILL BE ISSUING WIND ADVISORY WITH STRONG GUSTS FORECAST BEHIND FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO JUST BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLE. THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET DISCRETE STORMS WITH LOW INSTABILITY FROM RAIN TODAY. AS COLD FRONT RUSHES THROUGH...H850 TEMPS TUMBLE. EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNRISE. AS HEART OF COLD AIR POURS IN...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP TOMORROW IS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLAKE ANYWHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS TOMORROW...INCLUDING AT CRW. MOS TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD COLDER MAV TEMPS THOUGH. LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS TOMORROW. ...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD. MODELS PULL OUT UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW MODERATION TREND. MODELS DO SHOW UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LIFTING AND SHEARING OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER OUR CWA SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. NEXT BIG UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MODELS AGREE THIS WILL BE A VERY WET SYSTEM...BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS IS FASTER WHILE THE EURO MODELS ARE SLOWER. WE PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GFS GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WE ARE UNDER. THUS...THE FRONT COMES ACROSS TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND IT. THIS MAY BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A MIX IN THE LOWLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRYING BUT COLD FOR WEDNESDAY. CL/JMV ******************************************************************** wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED CCF NUMBERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 347 PM CST THU NOV 13 2003 MAIN CONCERN WITH TODAY'S FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WAVE HAS HELPED SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. RUC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME DOWNGLIDE TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DUE TO THE PRESCENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW SOON TO BRING POPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH HANGS ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. ONCE THE HIGH DOES MOVE EAST, I WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE PICTURE PROBABLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE THE LIQUID VARIETY FOR NOW, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. TOMORROW: WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA. CENTRAL KANSAS MAY EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP BOOST THEM TO NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE, WE CONTINUED TO MENTION A CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO KINGMAN LINE WHERE GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE BETWEEN 290-300K. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AROUND 50 WITH LOW CLOUDS. TOMORROW NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EAST THROUGH NEBRASKA AND BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING RW- IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHICH IS WHERE THE UPGLIDE WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS OUT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. WE RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LOW CLOUDS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY: WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXIT THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AS WELL AND POSSIBLY STALL OUT IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. MONDAY-THURSDAY: NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF ENERGY POURING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STILL A BIG DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. THE ECMWF STILL TRIES TO CUT THIS SYSTEM OFF WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. WE CONTINUED TO BLEND THESE SOLUTIONS WITH THE UKMET WHICH PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FCSTID = 18/COX ICT 40 53 43 59 / 50 20 20 10 HUT 40 55 41 59 / 40 10 10 10 EWK 40 53 42 58 / 40 10 10 10 EQA 40 52 43 59 / 50 20 20 10 WLD 38 51 44 60 / 60 30 30 10 RSL 39 59 35 58 / 20 10 10 5 GBD 40 58 36 59 / 20 10 10 5 SLN 40 56 39 57 / 30 10 10 10 MPR 40 55 40 58 / 30 10 10 10 CFV 37 49 44 61 / 60 40 40 10 CNU 38 49 45 60 / 50 40 40 10 K88 38 50 44 59 / 40 30 30 10 .ICT... KS...NONE. $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1148 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 .UPDATE... I WILL UPDATE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS BECAUSE NO SFC STATIONS HAVE REPORTING THE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH OR THE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH TO REACH THE CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE IT IS TRUE THE MODEL WINDS DO NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON (THEY TO THAT THIS EVENING) IN THE 1000/850 LAYER... THE FACT THAT WE ARE NOT GETTING THOSE WIND SPEEDS REPORTED BY ANY OF OUR REPORTING STATIONS TELLS ME I SHOULD ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON... SO I WILL. AS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ISSUE... I WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE RUC AND ETA SHOW THE MEAN RH BETWEEN 1000/850 MB DECREASES WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR SHOWS THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. A CALL TO THE COUNTIES SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ANYWHERE...EVEN IN TUSTIN (ONLY A DUSTING). SO EVEN THROUGH THE RADAR SHOWS QUIET A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND... THEY ARE NOT DOING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES (NO VIS AT ASOS SITES BELOW 5 MILES IN SEVERAL HOURS)... SEEMS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS THE WAY TO GO. BESIDE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE STRONG WINDS (30 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE 950 TO 850 MB LAYER) WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION MULTICELLULAR. THE DECREASING MEAN RH IN THE LOWEST 6000 FT WILL CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO DECREASE... EVEN THROUGH THE -10C 850 TEMP WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD INSTABILITY. ZONE UPDATE BY NOON. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING NEW BUFFALO TO MANISTEE TODAY. && $$ MEADE IOD WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 245 PM EST THU NOV 13 2003 ******************************************************************** 245 PM EST THU NOV 13 2003 ...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... CYCLONIC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST PART OF CWA...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND LESS CYCLONIC OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTH TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WHILE STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH EVENING AND THEN RELAXES AS SYSTEM EXITS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WILL NOT CONTINUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT AS WINDS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL DURING DAY TODAY AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 20S OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP AND WILL PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN LINE WITH THINKING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT NO ADVISORIES FORESEEN. A LITTLE BIT OF A WARM UP TOMORROW AS 850H TEMPS WARM IN AFTERNOON AND UNDER PLENTY OF SUN. MAV NUMBERS LOOK TO COOL AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER FWC/MET. ...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... UPPING IS THE TERM THAT BEST DESCRIBES ABOVE PERIOD. 00Z NCEP SUITE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IN AROUND BACKSIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN ANTICYCLONE. GFS AND ETA BOTH HINT AT LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER SRN CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING...FEEL THIS IS A TAD FAST...AS FORCING ALBEIT MINIMAL RESIDES OFF TO THE SW (285K UPGLIDE/WAA). PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING SITES...OPTED TO GO BELOW GUID WITH POPS THIS WEEKEND AND A DRY FCST SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BL TEMPS CONTINUE TO INC AND WITH SRLY FLOW BECOMING DEEPER AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW...INC TEMPS QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FCST...CANOPY OF HI BASED CU WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP...WHILE MODERATE WAA SHOULD BRING HIGHS ABOVE 50F FOR THE LOWLANDS THIS WEEKEND. ...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... BIG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW AND DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MEAN A CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT. MODELS ALL AGREE ON A BIG SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS IS FASTEST. WILL USE THE GFS DETAILS...BUT SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...BRINGING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER AIR AGAIN COMES IN WITH SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. MAV/MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH ON MAXES FOLLOWING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ HC/29/JMV ******************************************************************* 935 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 MORNING UPDATE... IN WAKE OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS AREA...COLD AIR SURGE HAS COMMENCED AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE IN TIGHT GRADIENT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THIS IS HANDLED WELL. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...POSSIBLY BEING OFFSET BY SOME SUN ACROSS SOUTH...THINK TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE THAT WORDING CHANGE IN UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH AND IN MOUNTAINS AS WIND GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 40 MPH AND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING DURING DAY. HC ******************************************************************** 500 AM EST THU NOV 13 2003 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING VERY COLD AIR READY TO PLUNGE INTO THE AREA TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SHOWING THIS TREND TO BE CORRECT AS READINGS HAVE FALLEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES SINCE 4Z AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z...SO HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TEMPERATURES TO WHAT THEY WILL BE AT 7 AM FOR HIGHS. HAVE LEFT THE POPS IN PLAY FOR THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES TODAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE NOT EXTENDING MUCH ABOVE 800 MB...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DEPENDED ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. ONCE READINGS FALL BELOW ABOUT 38 OR 39 DEGREES...WOULD EXPECT THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TO OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT MORE CLOUDS IN THAN THE MODEL SUGGEST...IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...AS THE 850 MOISTURE TAKES UNTIL ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUDS DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING THE NORM OVERNIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WINDS SHOULD BE UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM SEEING GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. BUT WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS...THE MAV LOWS LOOK WAY TOO WARM. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE FWC/MET. FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER. AVN MOS HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TOO COLD ONCE AGAIN...SO WENT ABOVE THIS GUIDANCE. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. ADDED A SMALL POP TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ESS/RPY ******************************************************************** 1023 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003 OVERNIGHT UPDATE... LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION THAT REMAINS RIGHT ALONG FRONT...JUST NOW CROSSING THE AREA. FLOOD WATERS ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE. ALL FLOOD AND THUNDERSTORM WATCHES FOR THE AREA HAVE EXPIRED...LEAVING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUST FROM RUC ALG TOOL SHOWS 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TO 55 MPH GUSTS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER DEPICT THE FRONT. REDUCED HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY. TRM ******************************************************************** wv