AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 358 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...CONCERNS TODAY AGAIN INVOLVE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AGAIN TODAY. RHS WILL BE LOW AGAIN...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN LIKELY END UP A LITTLE SHORT OF THE MARK. SO...NO HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...FUELS REMAIN CRITICAL AND CONDITIONS VERY DRY...SO THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL WE GET SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A HIGH LEVEL OF CAUTION NEEDS TO CONTINUE. SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOIST INFLOW FROM STORMS LAST EVENING HAVE MANAGED TO PUMP SOME PRETTY JUICY AIR UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH KLAA SHOWING A 61 DEWPOINT...KLHX A 55 DEWPOINT AND KPUB A 50 DEGREE DEWPOINT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE PALMER/RATON RIDGES ARE IN THE MID 40S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS ANALYSES INDICATE WINDS ARE SHOOTING RIGHT UP THE ARKANSAS VALLEY...CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE WESTWARD AT THIS TIME. PROJECTIONS FROM THE 06Z NAM12 RUN...HAVE LIFTED INDICES AT -6C OR BELOW OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 21Z...WITH CAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG WEST TO AROUND 3000 J/KG EAST. ALL OF THESE NUMBERS ARE IMPRESSIVE. NOW ALL WE NEED IS A SHORTWAVE. 0925Z WATER VAPOR PICTURES HAVE ONE. A FAINT BUT CLEAR JETSTREAK CAN BE SEEN RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF ARIZONA TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER. STREAK ALIGNS WITH A 50-60KT JET MAX IN THE RUC80 300MB WINDSPEED FIELD. NAM12 PROJECTIONS TAKE THE AXIS OF THIS JETSTREAK RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. STREAK LOOKS PRETTY WEAK (ONLY ABOUT 50KTS AT THE CORE) BUT IT COULD BE A SUFFICIENT TRIGGER TO GET THINGS POPPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/CAPE...WHEN THINGS DO START TO POP...THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ONLY PROJECTED AT 35-40KTS...SO ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...BELIEVE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. COULD BE ENOUGH ROTATION FOR TORNADOES...TOO...BUT PROBABLY A LESSER THREAT THAN THE LARGE HAIL OR STRAIGHT LINE THUNDERSTORM WINDS. PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY SHOULD RUN FROM 2PM TO 9PM...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM WINDOW RUNNING FROM 11AM TO 2AM. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT ALL AREAS WILL BE SUBJECT TO THUNDERSTORMS. LW .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS WILL HANG ON FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND DELAY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL THURSDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...SO TOOK THE PLUNGE AND PULLED POPS TOTALLY SINCE MOISTURE IS LACKING UP THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUNDING. FOR WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD BY THE AFTN. BOTH DAYS LOOK TO HAVE MAX TEMPS PUSHING 100 F OVER THE E PLAINS. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT FINALLY THE RIDGE SHOULD START BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS THE SE...ALLOWING STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO COLORADO. IF THIS SOLUTION PERSISTS...THEN THURSDAY WILL BE THREATENED WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SO KEPT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTION IS A BIT MUDDLED FOR THE OUT PERIODS...WITH SOME SORT OF UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN THE UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. REGARDLESS...DO NOT SEE MUCH HOPE FOR A BREAK FROM THE ONGOING HOT AND DRY PATTERN... WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 50/27 co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 912 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM...RECENT SATELLITE AND SFC OBS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT ALBERTO HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...TRANSITIONED INTO A HYBRID SYSTEM. SAT PIX SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN NE OF THE SYSTEM...NEARLY LINEAR CONVECTION OVER THE SE GOMEX...AND A DRY SLOT PUNCHING WELL INTO THE SE QUADRANT OF THE STORM. 400MB RUC INITIALIZATION INDICATES A TIGHTENING LOW NEARLY RIGHT ON TOP OF THE SFC FEATURE. AS A RESULT...PRECIP FIELD ACROSS MOST OF OUR FL ZONES RESEMBLES A PATTERN TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. GENERALLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN COVERS MOST OF NE FL...WITH MORE WARM SECTOR TYPE CONVECTION S OF THE AREA. AS THE PRECIP FIELD SLOWLY LIFTS N AND NE...A BIT MORE CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE S ZONES...BUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... DON'T EXPECT THIS TO BE TOO STRONG. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THIS ACTIVITY. MAY SEE OUR WORST WX DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUE AS DRY SLOT ALLOWS SUN TO BREAK OUT AND GET MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING IN A CONTINUING HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL ADJUST POPS WITH START TIMES A BIT LATER OVER N ZONES. MAY ALSO CUT DOWN POPS SOME OVER THE EXTREME S AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WILL ALSO TONE DOWN WIND WORDING A BIT. && .MARINE...MOST OF THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ARE ABOVE THE SFC AND BEING MEASURED AT THE HIGHER SENSORS. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INDICATE MORE OF AN INCREASING TREND IN WINDS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL... FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM... ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU...AND ST JOHNS. GA...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APPLING...ATKINSON...BACON...BRANTLEY...CAMDEN...CHARLTON... CLINCH...COFFEE...ECHOLS...GLYNN...JEFF DAVIS...PIERCE... WARE...AND WAYNE. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMDEN AND GLYNN. AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 60 NM. && $$ CARROLL/ZIBURA/SANDRIK/MCALLISTER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1054 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .UPDATE... RECENTLY SENT UPDATE MAINLY TO FINESSE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WORDING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MCV FROM WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY POOL IN THE MID- UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN KS. AS THE MCV MOVES SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU THIS PM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP SOME UNDERNEATH THE MCV TRACK OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...AREAS OF SOME SUN/HEATING LIKELY UNDERNEATH MCV PATH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY EVENING HRS WITH PROBABLY THE GREATER COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW PULSE TYPE STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS...WITH INTENSE DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006/ UPDATE... WE ARE SENDING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING. IT APPEARS LIKE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPOGATE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD ON DUE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IF THESE CLOUDS LINGER. COX && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TODAY: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/PROFILERS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV) STARTING TO APPROACH DODGE CITY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST IN TRACKING THIS MCV...BUT IT IS ABOUT THREE HOURS BEHIND. THE RUC ALSO APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH IDENTIFYING THIS FEATURE...BUT THEY ARE BOTH KEYING ARE GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 305 AND 310K. THERE IS DECENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THIS REGION WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5KM...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR WICHITA TO WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY. VAD WIND PROFILES (VWP)FROM WICHITA AND VANCE AIR FORCE BASE ARE ALSO SHOWING THE FIRST TWO GATES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR THE STORMS TO REGENERATE FURTHER WEST. RUC SHOWS THE CORFIDI VECTORS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TOWARDS 12Z I WOULD ANTICIPATE THE MCV TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH MAY TEND TO BRING A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENCE TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND A VERY NARROW AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY ACTUALLY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. INSTABILITY IS QUITE A BIT LOWER IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE...I WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE STORMS. TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A BETTER JOB ON INITIALIZING ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER LOOKING AT THE RAOBS. IT ACTUALLY BRINGS THE INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM...BUT WE ARE GOING TO PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION A CHANCE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE VERY LOW 800MB CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 310 AND 315K. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PUT A LIMIT ON TEMPERATURES. WE ARE NOT GOING TO FIDDLE WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT UNTIL THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. TUESDAY-SATURDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUMMERTIME WEATHER TO RETURN. WE DID REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REASON FOR THIS WAS DUE TO THE GFS/ECMWF BEING RATHER CONSISTENT IN ITS TRENDS TO BUILD THE CAP OVER THE AREA. WE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT WE COULD END UP TWEAKING TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF THAT RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT. COX && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 84 63 90 66 / 40 10 10 5 HUTCHINSON 84 63 91 66 / 30 10 10 10 NEWTON 84 62 89 66 / 40 10 5 5 ELDORADO 83 62 89 65 / 40 10 5 5 WINFIELD-KWLD 85 64 90 65 / 40 10 5 5 RUSSELL 83 64 92 66 / 20 20 20 10 GREAT BEND 84 64 92 65 / 20 20 20 10 SALINA 83 61 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 MCPHERSON 83 62 90 66 / 30 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 84 63 87 64 / 30 20 5 5 CHANUTE 82 62 86 64 / 20 10 5 5 IOLA 81 61 86 64 / 20 10 5 5 PARSONS-KPPF 83 62 86 64 / 20 20 5 5 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 606 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .UPDATE... WE ARE SENDING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH THE MORNING. IT APPEARS LIKE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPOGATE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD ON DUE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IF THESE CLOUDS LINGER. COX && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TODAY: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/PROFILERS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV) STARTING TO APPROACH DODGE CITY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST IN TRACKING THIS MCV...BUT IT IS ABOUT THREE HOURS BEHIND. THE RUC ALSO APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH IDENTIFYING THIS FEATURE...BUT THEY ARE BOTH KEYING ARE GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 305 AND 310K. THERE IS DECENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THIS REGION WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5KM...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR WICHITA TO WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY. VAD WIND PROFILES (VWP)FROM WICHITA AND VANCE AIR FORCE BASE ARE ALSO SHOWING THE FIRST TWO GATES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR THE STORMS TO REGENERATE FURTHER WEST. RUC SHOWS THE CORFIDI VECTORS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TOWARDS 12Z I WOULD ANTICIPATE THE MCV TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH MAY TEND TO BRING A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENCE TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND A VERY NARROW AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY ACTUALLY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. INSTABILITY IS QUITE A BIT LOWER IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE...I WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE STORMS. TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A BETTER JOB ON INITIALIZING ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER LOOKING AT THE RAOBS. IT ACTUALLY BRINGS THE INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER WEST THAN THE NAM...BUT WE ARE GOING TO PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION A CHANCE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE VERY LOW 800MB CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 310 AND 315K. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PUT A LIMIT ON TEMPERATURES. WE ARE NOT GOING TO FIDDLE WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT UNTIL THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. TUESDAY-SATURDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUMMERTIME WEATHER TO RETURN. WE DID REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REASON FOR THIS WAS DUE TO THE GFS/ECMWF BEING RATHER CONSISTENT IN ITS TRENDS TO BUILD THE CAP OVER THE AREA. WE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT WE COULD END UP TWEAKING TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF THAT RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT. COX && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 84 63 90 66 / 40 10 10 5 HUTCHINSON 84 63 91 66 / 30 10 10 10 NEWTON 84 62 89 66 / 40 10 5 5 ELDORADO 83 62 89 65 / 40 10 5 5 WINFIELD-KWLD 85 64 90 65 / 40 10 5 5 RUSSELL 83 64 92 66 / 20 20 20 10 GREAT BEND 84 64 92 65 / 20 20 20 10 SALINA 83 61 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 MCPHERSON 83 62 90 66 / 30 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 84 63 87 64 / 30 20 5 5 CHANUTE 82 62 86 64 / 20 10 5 5 IOLA 81 61 86 64 / 20 10 5 5 PARSONS-KPPF 83 62 86 64 / 20 20 5 5 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 320 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... REMNANT GUST FRONT FROM THE MORNING OK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS S/SE ACROSS N TX...EXTREME NW MCCURTAIN CO IN SE OK...INTO W AR...AND HAS SPARKED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF NW AR. BUT 19Z LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CAP/CIN CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF NE TX...BUT SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FARTHER N ACROSS MCCURTAIN CO INTO ADJACENT SW AR...WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. QUICK 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THE WEAK COLD FRONT UNAFFECTED BY THE GUST FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AR...FROM NEAR HOT...TO PBF INTO CENTRAL MS/AL...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR REMAINS SOME 200-300 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR LOOP OVERLAYED WITH RUC 250MB WINDS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER N OK TRAVERSING SE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SLIPPING SE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SE OK/NE TX THIS EVENING. WILL BUMP UP POPS A TAD FOR NW ZONES TONIGHT BASED ON DECREASING STABILITY TRENDS...AND MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX FOR THIS EVENING ONLY...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. PROGS ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/W OK OVERNIGHT IN VC OF A SOUTHERLY LLJ...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD WORK THEIR WAY SE INTO THE NW ZONES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FOR E TX/SW AR/W LA TUESDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT S ACROSS THESE AREAS. CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR SW INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT SW. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS...ALTHOUGH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE SOME 40-50M LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY...IMPLYING TEMPS WILL BE SOME 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER. WILL SIDE TEMP FORECAST A TAD ABOVE GUIDANCE AS DRY AIR WILL BE QUICK TO WARM. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE QUICK TO CLEAR TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK SW INTO THE AREA...AND REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE W COAST...WILL COME ASHORE TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS ID/MT. THIS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS WARMING BACK TO TO AT LEAST THE MID 90S. HOWEVER...FORECAST DIFFICULTIES ARISE THEREAFTER FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A FEW MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER E MX...POSSIBLY RIDING NNE THIS WEEKEND ALONG A SHEAR AXIS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE/APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...THIS WILL INDUCE SOME MUCH NEEDED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WEAK FEATURES LIKE THIS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOULD THIS NOT VERIFY...WE MAY BE LEFT BAKING IN THE HOT JUNE SUN FOR QUITE A WHILE LONGER...AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT/ZONAL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/N PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. PRELIMS ARE NEXT... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 93 67 92 / 0 10 0 0 MLU 69 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 66 91 62 91 / 20 10 0 0 TXK 71 92 65 92 / 10 10 0 0 ELD 67 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 72 94 68 94 / 10 20 0 0 GGG 71 94 65 93 / 10 20 0 0 LFK 67 94 66 94 / 0 20 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 15 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 420 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS PCPN POTENTIAL TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF ALONG THE W COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A TROF OVER THE NE STATES. JUST N OF THE RIDGE...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED OVER SCNTRL CANADA. ONE IS OVER WRN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER (WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER HERE TUE) IS OVER WRN MANITOBA. CLOSER TO HOME...STRATOCU DECK WHICH SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING IS EDGING S THIS AFTN. BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD DECK RUNS FROM ABOUT KERY TO KIMT AS OF 1930Z. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS NOTED OVER W AND PART OF NCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE BREEZE COOLING HAS INHIBITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MANITOBA SHORTWAVE SE INTO WI/UPPER MI ON TUE. SOME SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER WRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF WAVE. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS DEVELOPING IN A WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME NOTED ON THE 300K SFC. GFS/NAM TAKE THIS WEAK ASCENT SE INTO WRN UPPER MI TOWARD 12Z TUE ALONG WITH CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS UNDER 10MB. GOING FCST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH LOW END POPS SPREADING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE IN THE NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NO GREATER THAN 6C/KM AND ESSENTIALLY NO ELEVATED CAPE. WILL REMOVE ANY THUNDER MENTION TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SEVERAL HRS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S PER GOING FCST. AS SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER UPPER MI/WI ON TUE...WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. ALSO...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...80KT UPPER JET DROPPING SE THRU MN/WI WILL PLACE LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI... AIDING SHRA DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERED BUMPING POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER THE W HALF...BUT THE LACK OF WIDEPSREAD PCPN UPSTREAM WITH SYSTEM TODAY ARGUES FOR HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHC POPS ATTM. WILL TREND POPS FROM 50 W TO 30 E. AS FOR THUNDER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EDGE UP TO AROUND 6.5C/KM AND SHOWALTER INDEX FALLS TO NEAR ZERO. AS WITH THE FORCING...THESE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A POTENTIAL OF THUNDER OCCUR OVER WRN UPPER MI. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SOME SFC BASED CONVECTION MAY FIRE LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH...THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL. AS SHORTWAVE HEADS SE TUE NIGHT...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL END. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS TO END ALL THE PCPN SINCE THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE TO THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...WILL END ALL PCPN BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY WEAK FORCING AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE. COULD HAVE FOG PROBLEMS LATE TUE NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOR A WHILE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM. AT THE MOMENT...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...PREVENTING FOG ISSUES. ASSUMING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT PASSES S EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY WED...PCPN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WED THRU THU AS PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS E TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LAKE BREEZES WILL DOMINATE WED AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. SAME IS TRUE THU...THOUGH WITH HIGH SLIPPING TO THE SE...LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HAVE MORE OF AN ERLY COMPONENT. FRI THRU MON...PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALREADY BE WELL UNDERWAY PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS PERIOD AS RECENT PERSISTENT ERN TROF GIVES WAY TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. PRONOUNCED RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NAMERICA MIDWEEK WILL BE SUPPRESSED LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SUPPRESSION IS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WHICH IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF WARM/HOT AIR ON LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE PROVIDES A DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION FRI...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE THU NIGHT OVER THE W. FCST IS THEN MORE UNCERTAIN SAT THRU MON AS UPPER MI WILL BE INLINE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY MOVING THRU THE ZONAL JET SITUATED ROUGHLY OVER THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. ALTHOUGH DRY PERIODS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BASED ON EXPLICIT MODEL OUTPUT...THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THE SHORTWAVES (WHICH WILL CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN) IN THE FAST FLOW SUGGESTS LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED PER GOING FCST. DO NOT EXPECT THE DETAILS/TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES TO BE SORTED OUT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS. PATTERN COULD YIELD SVR TSTM EPISODES FOR UPPER MI...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THE HUMID/MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONDUCIVE FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN S AND SW OF UPPER MI THRU EARLY NEXT. AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH ONE HOT DAY IS POSSIBLE...WILL STRAY AWAY FROM THE INDICATIONS OF HOT WEATHER PER 00Z ECMWF (850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C OVER THE WEEKEND) AS THIS RUN WAS A GOOD 4-7C HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THE PREVIOUS RUN (12Z/11JUNE) WAS MUCH MORE INLINE WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AND RECENT GFS RUNS. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE A WARMER PERIOD MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1101 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES FROM IOWA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS. TO THE WEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. WEAK SHORTWAVES NAVIGATING THROUGH THE RIDGE ARE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P...EASTERN U.P...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO IOWA. A WEAK LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN WINNIPEG...WHILE A COLD FRONT RUNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. A 1000MB LOW IS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. A CLOUD DECK IS OVER THE U.P. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 850MB LAYER AND AREA STRONGEST 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN U.P. WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE U.P. WHERE 850MB RH WILL BE AROUND 95 PERCENT. MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY BELOW 900MB. THUS IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON... WHILE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE AREA. IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCUR...IT SHOULD EVAPORATE AS IT DESCEND THROUGH THE THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. TRAJECTORY FORECAST INDICATE THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO YESTERDAY WILL REACH THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN TO UPDATE TO TWEAK THE WORDING. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1035 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS MORNING. VSBL SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH ADDITION DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR NRN AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. DRIER AIR OVER THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL AID IN PARTIALLY DISSIPATING THE OVC DECK ACROSS NRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL THINK THE OVERALL FLAVOR OF THE AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS AND MODEL DATA. .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 DISCUSSION...04Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS...IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOUR. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO HANG OUT OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN...CLOSED LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS TRYING TO FLATTEN A RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OVER NORTHERN LOWER AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE SKIRTING THE LAKES OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...BOTH WITH ONLY SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. IN THE LOW LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER ONTARIO/WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM GEORGIAN BAY OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS/STRATO- CU IS SLOWLY DRIFTING S/SW...BUT SIGNS OF PRECIP HAVE BEEN WELL TO THE NE OVER ONTARIO. AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES SOUTH...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER TODAY. TODAY...NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LOWER TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SWINGS OVER THE CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF ABOUT 5-6C AT 18Z (WARMING TO 7-8C BY 00Z) HANGING OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION... 1000-700MB RH LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 75% OVER MOST NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH 18Z BEFORE DRIER AIR (RH FALLING < 60%) IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND OVERTAKE MOST OF EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER BY 12Z...WITH THE REMAINING AREAS HAVING A STRATO-CU FIELD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN...AS 850MB TEMPS WARM AND DRIER WORKS SOUTHWARD...CAN SEE THE CLOUD COVER ERODED BY MIXING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 850MB...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM UP CLOSE TO 70...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES SHORES...WHERE LAKE BREEZES SHOULD KICK IN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MPC LATER PERIODS...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN N CENTRAL CANADA WAS EXTENDING RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WAS IN SASKATCHEWAN...CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW WILL GET SHEARED APART BUT STILL SEND A REASONABLY VIGOROUS (BUT MOISTURE-STARVED) SHORTWAVE INTO THE LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS IS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE EMPHATICALLY FROM THE NW. MODELS...THE GFS REMAINS MORE VIGOROUS WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE KICKER ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM DIGS THESE WAVES A BIT MORE...KEEPING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND SUPPORT TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THIS IS A NEAT FLIP-FLOP FROM THE 12Z RUNS. MODELS APPEAR REASONABLY INITIALIZED...WITH NO OBVIOUS CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. CANADIAN LEANS TOWARD THE NAM...NGM TOWARD THE GFS. WILL BLEND THE NAM/GFS. TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF UPSTREAM UPPER LOW MOVES TO JUST NORTH OF INL. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS SE ACROSS SUPERIOR AND TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS MAKES FOR ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST. COULD STILL BE LINGERING STRATOCU EARLY IN THE EVENING IN THE SE ZONES...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TROF AXIS IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND GRAZING BY PRESQUE ISLE LT. YET AGAIN EXPECT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO EXPAND DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK TO EASTERN UPPER...AND MAYBE AS FAR SW AS APN/PLN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLISH BUT CONTINUE TO MODERATE...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. TUESDAY...UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS UPPER LOW FILLS AND COLD WATERS OF SUPERIOR INTERFERE. BUT RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER...AND IS PROGGED BY THE NAM TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70...AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S...WILL SUPPORT ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE (EVEN THE NAM HAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE ALL SORTS OF BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE INCOMING TROF CAN INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZES AT MAX HEATING. THUS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE IN THE S CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SE ZONES. COLLIDING LAKE BREEZES COULD HELP GET THINGS GOING IN EASTERN UPPER MI. EARLIER FORECAST NOT UNREASONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WILL TWEAK WX GRIDS ONLY SLIGHTLY...MAINLY TO REMOVE PRECIP FROM CHEBOYGAN TO ALPENA...WHERE LAKE-AUGMENTED NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE A MARINE ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP. WILL ALSO REMOVE THUNDER...AS INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT. TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE KICKER SHORTWAVE CAN SLIDE EASTWARD ENOUGH TO GIVE US SOME PRECIP. THE NAM SAYS NO WAY...KEEPING THE AIRMASS DRY BELOW 750MB (THOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ABOVE). THE GFS MIGHT ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO SCRAPE BY WESTERN CHIP/MACK AND THE SW ZONES. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY AND IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECAST...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AFTER MID-EVENING AND LOSS OF HEATING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS TRENDING UPWARD...MID 40S TO NEAR 50. WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES... BRINGING QUIET WX AND INCREASED SUNSHINE TO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY AS KICKER WAVE DEPARTS TO THE SE). PLEASANT DAY WITH ABUNDANT LAKE BREEZES...AND MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE LOWER 70S. NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. 00Z GFS CONTINUES EARLIER TREND OF KNOCKING DOWN AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS...AND WOULD BRING SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN FROM WEST MAYBE AS SOON AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE ECMWF TREND THIS WAY BEFORE JUMPING ON THAT SOLUTION. ZOLTOWSKI && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 645 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .AVIATION DISCUSSION... MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING FOR THE KANSAS CITY AND SAINT JOSEPH TERMINAL SITES. COOL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE THICK CIRRUS SHIELD ADVECTING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY LOCK THE STRATUS OVER THE REGION LONGER THAN WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DESPITE THE HIGH SUN ANGLE...WE EXPECT 2500FT CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 16Z-18Z. PILOT REPORTS FROM KMKC SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS ABOUT 2000FT THICK AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE TODAY. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO BREAK UP THE STATUS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE LOW LEVEL JET. 850MB WIND FORECASTS FROM THE RUC FORECAST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNRISE...SO THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY LATE MORNING. SO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUN SHOULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY LATE MORNING. KOCH .DISCUSSION... 400 AM... THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WAS SQUASHED LATE LAST WEEK WONT BE KEPT DOWN AS IT SPRINGS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT... WHICH MEANS SHORTWAVES AND/OR VORTICITY LOBES TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND TIME. PLUS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW. FOR TODAY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MN INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD A BIT. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO TUESDAY. STRATOCU FIELD HAS ALSO EXPANDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CWA. ORDINARILY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LARGE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS SENT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MO. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW DOWN THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS NOT COOLED OFF OVERNIGHT SO A WARMER START ANTICIPATED. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER MAV NUMBERS. DRY AIRMASS COURTESY OF THE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEXT 2 NIGHTS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD THIS WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW THE HOT AIR TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWEST MO AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS LOW. WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH TO SEE IF THE MODELS HAVE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... 400 PM... RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOW MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS FILLED IN WITH SC OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEEPER RAIN COOLED AIRMASS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH...CURRENTLY LYING NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME UNSTABLE...RATHER FLAT APPEARANCE TO THE CUMULUS FIELD...IN ADDITION A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION (+10C AT 700MB; +20C AT 850MB) WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING IN THE SRN CWA IN THE EVENT THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY CAN INFUSE SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW IS THE FORECAST OF LOW CLOUDS ADVECTED TOWARDS NW MISSOURI FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW OVERCAST FORMING IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY ARGUES SOMEWHAT AGAINST WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK...DEEP SATURATED EASTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS SUCH A LOW CLOUD DECK FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUD FORMATION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS HINT THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CONTINUED COOL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PUSHING TEMPERATURE BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 21 MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. RIDGING ACTION TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GET BEAT DOWN BY SEVERAL EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVES. THE END RESULT WILL BE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND BECOME A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. WHILE THE WAVES CRESTING THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ENOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. UNDER THE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THIS WEEK. WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT BUMPED TEMPS SOME. EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS HITTING 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY...WITH 90S SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE KS...NONE $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 925 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (TNGT - WEDNESDAY)... UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THINNING CLD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS. HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISC... DON'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHG IN THE PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS. WE REMAIN UNDER A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WV'S. MDLS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE LOW LVL MSTR WELL, WITH XCPTN OF THE 0-12HR RUC OUTPUT. SAT PIX SHOWS ALOT OF LOW CLDS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO, AND ALTHO WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS TMRW, MOSTLY CLDY SKIES SHUD PERSIST ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MAXES THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN CRNT UPSTREAM TEMPS AND EXPECTATION OF BKN-OVC CLDS, WE LEANED TWDS THE COOLER FWC'S FOR TMRW AND EVEN SHAVED A FEW DEG OFF THEM (AREAS THAT REMAIN OVC ALL DAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE M/U60S). STAYED WITH CHC POPS FOR WED AS MDLS SHOW A WEAK WAVE RIDING NE ALONG A SFC TROF JUST TO OUR SE, IN COMBINATION WITH A S/WV APRCHG FROM THE W. HIEST CHC POPS SE ZONES. && .LONG TERM (WED NITE - MON)... FOLLOWED MAJORITY OF THE HPC GUIDANCE. MEAN ERN U.S. TROF PERSISTS THRU FRIDAY, THEN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN/CNTRL NY SUN-MON. ALSO EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT TO SKY COVER WITH SUNSHINE BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT...AND ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 20C BY MONDAY WHICH IS SLGHTLY (1SD) ABOVE NORMAL. SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERMIT GOOD MIXING AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEKEND. -JAB && .AVIATION (13/00Z TO 14/00Z)... CLOUDS RAPIDLY THINNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NY AND PA. THIS IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH MESOSCALE PROGS. GOING WITH THIS TREND WE ARE BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE MVFR SCU DECK OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z WE EXPECT ANOTHER MVFR DECK TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IF THIS DOES NOT TRANSPIRE WE WILL AMEND TAFS IN A FEW HOURS. TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY, WITH A SCU DECK AROUND 3000 FT MOST OF THE DAY. DJP && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 740 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .AVIATION (13/00Z TO 14/00Z)... CLOUDS RAPIDLY THINNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NY AND PA. THIS IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH MESOSCALE PROGS. GOING WITH THIS TREND WE ARE BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE MVFR SCU DECK OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z WE EXPECT ANOTHER MVFR DECK TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IF THIS DOES NOT TRANSPIRE WE WILL AMEND TAFS IN A FEW HOURS. TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY, WITH A SCU DECK AROUND 3000 FT MOST OF THE DAY. DJP && .SHORT TERM (TNGT - WEDNESDAY)... DON'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHG IN THE PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS. WE REMAIN UNDER A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WV'S. MDLS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE LOW LVL MSTR WELL, WITH XCPTN OF THE 0-12HR RUC OUTPUT. SAT PIX SHOWS ALOT OF LOW CLDS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO, AND ALTHO WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS TMRW, MOSTLY CLDY SKIES SHUD PERSIST ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MAXES THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN CRNT UPSTREAM TEMPS AND EXPECTATION OF BKN-OVC CLDS, WE LEANED TWDS THE COOLER FWC'S FOR TMRW AND EVEN SHAVED A FEW DEG OFF THEM (AREAS THAT REMAIN OVC ALL DAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE M/U60S). STAYED WITH CHC POPS FOR WED AS MDLS SHOW A WEAK WAVE RIDING NE ALONG A SFC TROF JUST TO OUR SE, IN COMBINATION WITH A S/WV APRCHG FROM THE W. HIEST CHC POPS SE ZONES. && .LONG TERM (WED NITE - MON)... FOLLOWED MAJORITY OF THE HPC GUIDANCE. MEAN ERN U.S. TROF PERSISTS THRU FRIDAY, THEN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN/CNTRL NY SUN-MON. ALSO EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT TO SKY COVER WITH SUNSHINE BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT...AND ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 20C BY MONDAY WHICH IS SLGHTLY (1SD) ABOVE NORMAL. SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERMIT GOOD MIXING AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEKEND. -JAB && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 215 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (TNGT - WEDNESDAY)... DON'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHG IN THE PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS. WE REMAIN UNDER A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WV'S. MDLS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE LOW LVL MSTR WELL, WITH XCPTN OF THE 0-12HR RUC OUTPUT. SAT PIX SHOWS ALOT OF LOW CLDS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO, AND ALTHO WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS TMRW, MOSTLY CLDY SKIES SHUD PERSIST ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR MAXES THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN CRNT UPSTREAM TEMPS AND EXPECTATION OF BKN-OVC CLDS, WE LEANED TWDS THE COOLER FWC'S FOR TMRW AND EVEN SHAVED A FEW DEG OFF THEM (AREAS THAT REMAIN OVC ALL DAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE M/U60S). STAYED WITH CHC POPS FOR WED AS MDLS SHOW A WEAK WAVE RIDING NE ALONG A SFC TROF JUST TO OUR SE, IN COMBINATION WITH A S/WV APRCHG FROM THE W. HIEST CHC POPS SE ZONES. && .LONG TERM (WED NITE - MON)... FOLLOWED MAJORITY OF THE HPC GUIDANCE. MEAN ERN U.S. TROF PERSISTS THRU FRIDAY, THEN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN/CNTRL NY SUN-MON. ALSO EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT TO SKY COVER WITH SUNSHINE BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT...AND ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 20C BY MONDAY WHICH IS SLGHTLY (1SD) ABOVE NORMAL. SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERMIT GOOD MIXING AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEKEND. -JAB && .AVIATION (12/18Z TO 13/18Z)... ANOTHER TRICKY DAY IN THE FLIGHT ARENA. CIGS GRDLY LIFTING TO ABV VFR THIS AFTN WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THRU 00-03Z. MODEL TRENDS THEN CONTINUE TO LIFT CLOUDS UP AND OUT OF THE REGION...BUT GUIDANCE HAS HAD A POOR HANDLE ON THE OVERALL SITUATION WITH PERSISTENT LLVL INVERSION AND CYCLONIC FLOW/WEAK LIFT ABOVE. RUC MDL IS ABOUT THE ONLY ONE TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE TRAPPED MOISTURE TODAY...AND HOLDS IT OVER THE ARE INTO TONIGHT. WE SUSPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD AFT 04Z AND LINGER THRU 14Z TUESDAY... BEFORE AGAIN LIFTING ABOVE VFR. WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED XPCTD IN A W-NWLY DIRECTION 10 KTS OR LESS WITH NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS. -JAB && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1017 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO EXPIRE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AND SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD... CLOSER TO A MESOLOW NOTED ON THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THE SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE SANDHILLS... AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST 925-850 MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOIST LAYER ONLY SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT... AND WITH THE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... EXPECT THE CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TRIAD AREA BUT WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM ALBERTO... AND A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS JUSTIFIED THERE AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE TONIGHT... AND WILL FURTHER REDUCE POPS... PARTICULARLY THE THUNDER RISK... BUT NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE THEM... CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE PROFILE AND WITH ANOTHER LIKELY SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65 ARE REASONABLE AND DON'T PLAN MUCH CHANGE THERE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CWA WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF BOUNDARY...LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT... NORTH/NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY... ONLY A SMALL CHANCE SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHERN TIER EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS LOWER TO MID 80S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... REMNANTS OF ALBERTO COMING INTO PLAY FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GREATEST EFFECT (HIGHEST POPS) EASTERN CWA DURING WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON HANDLING THE SYSTEM AS NAM MORE CONSISTENT WITH TPC TRACK. GFS DRIER AND EVOLVES INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH. POPS IN LINE WITH NAM SOLUTION. SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERN CWA WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WEST....UPPER 70S EAST WITH LIKELY POPS. DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER. HIGHS MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. HPC GUIDANCE ACCEPTED WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S...REACHING AROUND 90 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AVIATION... CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST TAF SITES DROPPING FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH...LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCING VIS IN FOG AS MUCH COOLER AIR SLOWLY ADVANCES INTO WARM...MOIST AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 136 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 467 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ANALYZED NORTH OF THE CWFA ON THE LATEST SURFACE CHART...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KGSP 88-D REFLECTIVITIES STRONGLY SUGGEST THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE SEEN DROPPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BEST CONVERGENCE TODAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA...AND IT REALLY IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED MOST OF OUR SOUTHEAST TIER AREAS TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE NOT AS CLEAR AS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...MOST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAVE FEW CLOUDS...SO THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF TIME TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD. WE WARMED MAXES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF PER EXAMINATION OF THE GREENSBORO RAOB. AN 85H JET IS RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS; FIRST FEW FRAMES OF THE NEW 12Z NAM WEAKENS WIND FIELDS QUITE A BIT OVER OUR CWFA AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND FORCING SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR BORDERS. STILL...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF UNSTABLE AIR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME QUITE TALL AGAIN TODAY. THE INFILTRATION OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PER THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS ADDS ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER INGRIEDIENT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 FOR INCLUSION IN A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK COINCIDENT WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS MORNING UPDATE. ASIDE FROM AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE SOUTH...WE WARMED THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT A DEGREE OR TWO ALSO. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...ALONG THE TRACK THAT CELLS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXIST...AND STILL A NUMBER OF CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST MAXES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL BE KEPT AS IS...FOR NOW. AS FAR AS CHANGES TO OUR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WE BUMPED UP TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOST AREAS...FROM CHARLOTTE AND MONROE SOUTH TO CHESTER...LAURENS AND GREENWOOD. MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA OR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND DESPITE THE FACT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH...I AM HESITANT TO REMOVE PROBABILITIES FROM THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE AREA. WE THEREFORE LOWERED TO 30 PERCENT FOR ALL OF OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH POPS 40 TO 50% FOR LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION WHILE LEVEL UPPER SPOKES OF ENERGY KEEP STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER. LATEST RUC HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS FIELDS AND MESHES WELL WITH GFS AFTER 12Z. THE UPPER H5 TROF WILL SWING OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT AXIS WONT REACH THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE SHOWS COLD FRONT AND RIDGING CAA THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WAVE OVER THE UPSTATE WILL KEEP BEST CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AFTER 20Z ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY AS SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE SKINNY AND THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWFA BECOMES A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. REDUCED SURFACE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS COME IN TOO UNREALISTICALLY HIGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXED SFC DEW POINT IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE THE MOS HAS MID TO UPPER 60S. SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED DOWN TO COMPENSATE FOR INCREASING DRY AIR AND A TRANSITION TO DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY WARM AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF TS ALBERTO. THE GFS WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE TO FOLLOW ALBERTO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIP WILL HUNG THE COASTLINE WHILE A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT EXPECT A MAJOR INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS TS ALBERTO SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY TROF AND QUICKLY PROPELLED NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING IN ALBERTO/S WAKE. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER A DECENT THICKNESS PACKING WILL ALLOW THURSDAYS MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NCEP CHOOSE TO FOLLOW THE 00 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF GRADUALLY FILLING LONG WAVE TROUGH THU AND FRI. THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLANS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. THIS CERTAINLY DOESN/T BODE WELL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR DAY 7...BUT IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...THE LATTER PERIODS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY VERIFY WARMER AND DRIER THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW. AVIATION... SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD ONLY AFFECT KAVL IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAY BREAK FOR KAVL/KCLT. KGSP WILL SEE SOME MVFR FOG AS WELL...BUT VERY DRY DEW POINTS AT KAND SHOULD KEEP THEM VFR. SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE CWFA TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. HOWEVER...MDLS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND INVASION OF THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES THRU. HOWEVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TAF SITES STILL HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THAN THE NORTH CAROLINA SITES. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE VCSH AND A CB DURING THE DAY OVER SC WITH VCTS FOR NC. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND FORCING TODAY...LOW VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID...ONLY KAVL HAS A LOW VFR CEILING FOR NOW. FRONT PUSHES THRU BY LATE AFTERNOON ENDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SWINGING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY. SKIES CLEAR AS WELL INCREASING THE FOG POTENTIAL IF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS SLOWER TO ENTER && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1041 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ANALYZED NORTH OF THE CWFA ON THE LATEST SURFACE CHART...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KGSP 88-D REFLECTIVITIES STRONGLY SUGGEST THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE SEEN DROPPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BEST CONVERGENCE TODAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA...AND IT REALLY IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED MOST OF OUR SOUTHEAST TIER AREAS TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE NOT AS CLEAR AS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...MOST OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAVE FEW CLOUDS...SO THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF TIME TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD. WE WARMED MAXES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF PER EXAMINATION OF THE GREENSBORO RAOB. AN 85H JET IS RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS; FIRST FEW FRAMES OF THE NEW 12Z NAM WEAKENS WIND FIELDS QUITE A BIT OVER OUR CWFA AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND FORCING SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR BORDERS. STILL...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF UNSTABLE AIR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME QUITE TALL AGAIN TODAY. THE INFILTRATION OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PER THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS ADDS ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER INGRIEDIENT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 FOR INCLUSION IN A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK COINCIDENT WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS MORNING UPDATE. ASIDE FROM AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE SOUTH...WE WARMED THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT A DEGREE OR TWO ALSO. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...ALONG THE TRACK THAT CELLS HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXIST...AND STILL A NUMBER OF CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST MAXES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL BE KEPT AS IS...FOR NOW. AS FAR AS CHANGES TO OUR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WE BUMPED UP TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOST AREAS...FROM CHARLOTTE AND MONROE SOUTH TO CHESTER...LAURENS AND GREENWOOD. MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA OR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND DESPITE THE FACT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH...I AM HESITANT TO REMOVE PROBABILITIES FROM THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE AREA. WE THEREFORE LOWERED TO 30 PERCENT FOR ALL OF OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH POPS 40 TO 50% FOR LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION WHILE LEVEL UPPER SPOKES OF ENERGY KEEP STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN/NC BORDER. LATEST RUC HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS FIELDS AND MESHES WELL WITH GFS AFTER 12Z. THE UPPER H5 TROF WILL SWING OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT AXIS WONT REACH THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE SHOWS COLD FRONT AND RIDGING CAA THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WAVE OVER THE UPSTATE WILL KEEP BEST CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AFTER 20Z ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY AS SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE SKINNY AND THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWFA BECOMES A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. REDUCED SURFACE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS COME IN TOO UNREALISTICALLY HIGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXED SFC DEW POINT IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE THE MOS HAS MID TO UPPER 60S. SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED DOWN TO COMPENSATE FOR INCREASING DRY AIR AND A TRANSITION TO DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY WARM AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF TS ALBERTO. THE GFS WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE TO FOLLOW ALBERTO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIP WILL HUNG THE COASTLINE WHILE A WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT EXPECT A MAJOR INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS TS ALBERTO SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY TROF AND QUICKLY PROPELLED NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING IN ALBERTO/S WAKE. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER A DECENT THICKNESS PACKING WILL ALLOW THURSDAYS MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NCEP CHOOSE TO FOLLOW THE 00 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF GRADUALLY FILLING LONG WAVE TROUGH THU AND FRI. THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLANS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. THIS CERTAINLY DOESN/T BODE WELL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THERE ARE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR DAY 7...BUT IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...THE LATTER PERIODS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY VERIFY WARMER AND DRIER THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW. AVIATION... SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD ONLY AFFECT KAVL IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND DAY BREAK FOR KAVL/KCLT. KGSP WILL SEE SOME MVFR FOG AS WELL...BUT VERY DRY DEW POINTS AT KAND SHOULD KEEP THEM VFR. SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE CWFA TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. HOWEVER...MDLS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND INVASION OF THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES THRU. HOWEVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TAF SITES STILL HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THAN THE NORTH CAROLINA SITES. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE VCSH AND A CB DURING THE DAY OVER SC WITH VCTS FOR NC. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND FORCING TODAY...LOW VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID...ONLY KAVL HAS A LOW VFR CEILING FOR NOW. FRONT PUSHES THRU BY LATE AFTERNOON ENDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SWINGING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY. SKIES CLEAR AS WELL INCREASING THE FOG POTENTIAL IF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS SLOWER TO ENTER && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .AVIATION... TAFS A LITTLE TRICKIER TODAY THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT IMPACTS TO AVIATION SHOULD STILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS POSSIBLE FROM ANVIL BLOWOFF FROM THE STORMS IN OKLAHOMA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST AROUND 11Z DFW/DAL/AFW/FTW AND AROUND 14Z ACT. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS WIND SHIFT AND WILL HARDLY BE FELT. AN MCS IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EAST TX/WEST LA IN THE MORNING HOURS. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM COMPLEX MAY CLIP THE METROPLEX BUT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AT DFW AND DAL. OTHER SITES SHOULD BE OK WITH SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS. JLD/82 && .UPDATE 1105 AM CDT... MCS OVER KS AND OK IS BEING SUSTAINED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN OK. THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BUILD S/SW TOWARDS REMAINING LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL TX. RUC/ETA/WRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE REACHING NORTH TX. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE ALSO BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MAY HAVE TO UP/EXPAND POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO DP/WIND/SKY GRIDS FOR THE UPDATE. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 341 AM CDT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE BRINGING A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST...A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW POPS AT THAT TIME TOO...HAVE JUST PLACED 10 PERCENTS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR NOW. #58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 99 76 97 73 / 0 10 10 10 WACO, TX 98 71 99 71 / 0 10 20 10 PARIS, TX 97 71 92 68 / 10 20 10 10 DENTON, TX 101 73 97 70 / 0 10 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 98 72 95 68 / 0 10 10 10 DALLAS, TX 98 77 98 75 / 0 10 10 10 TERRELL, TX 98 73 97 71 / 0 10 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 99 71 97 72 / 0 10 20 10 TEMPLE, TX 96 69 98 72 / 0 10 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 25/58 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1105 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 .UPDATE... MCS OVER KS AND OK IS BEING SUSTAINED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN OK. THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BUILD S/SW TOWARDS REMAINING LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL TX. RUC/ETA/WRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE REACHING NORTH TX. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE ALSO BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MAY HAVE TO UP/EXPAND POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO DP/WIND/SKY GRIDS FOR THE UPDATE. /13 && .AVIATION... 600 AM CDT BR NOT A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...WITH P6SM T/TD SPREADS MOST AREAS. ST/SC OVER HILL COUNTRY VERY THIN...STRUGGLING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. MAY FLIRT WITH KACT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS WITH ARRIVAL AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BACKING ESE. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 341 AM CDT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE BRINGING A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST...A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW POPS AT THAT TIME TOO...HAVE JUST PLACED 10 PERCENTS WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR NOW. #58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 99 76 97 73 / 0 10 10 10 WACO, TX 98 71 99 71 / 0 10 20 10 PARIS, TX 97 71 92 68 / 10 20 10 10 DENTON, TX 101 73 97 70 / 0 10 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 98 72 95 68 / 0 10 10 10 DALLAS, TX 98 77 98 75 / 0 10 10 10 TERRELL, TX 98 73 97 71 / 0 10 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 99 71 97 72 / 0 10 20 10 TEMPLE, TX 96 69 98 72 / 0 10 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 25/58 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 314 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE SHORT TERM POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THEN THE POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. TODAY: WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN REASON IS DUE TO LACK OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE LATEST RUNS FROM THE GFS/RUC WHICH INITIALIZED THE BEST DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT AROUND 310K THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE VAD WIND PROFILERS ARE SHOWING GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWEST 4KFT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER EAST IS A LITTLE DRIER WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP THE STRATUS CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 14. FURTHER EAST...I WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DUE TO LACK OF DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY AND INCREASE THE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS. AS A RESULT...WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. TONIGHT: IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP CAMP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE PATCHY AT BEST...BUT IT MAY TURN INTO A MORE DEW DEPOSITION. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME PATCHY FOG FOR NOW IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE. WE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE LEE TROF TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH SOME OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES POSSIBLY REACHING THE CENTURY MARK AS THE FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY-MONDAY: THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF/UKMET ARE SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND THEN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSITION OF THIS LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY. THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THIS LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THIS WEEKEND. I WOULD RATHER NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO POPS AT THIS JUNCTURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE CONSISTENCY ON WHERE THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL END UP. WE DID BACK OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT SINCE IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN. COX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 86 62 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 87 63 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 NEWTON 85 62 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 ELDORADO 85 62 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 86 62 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 RUSSELL 87 64 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 88 64 95 71 / 5 0 0 0 SALINA 85 64 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 86 63 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 83 61 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 CHANUTE 82 60 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 IOLA 82 60 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 82 61 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 300 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING MAY YIELD SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA TODAY. MODELS PRETTY MOIST AOA 500MB. SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO IT. ALSO THINK NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEXT TWO DAYS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL OF DRY AIR...SO WE ADJUSTED DEW POINT TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON THIS. MODELS BRING A SYSTEM DOWN IN NW FLOW WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED NIGHT. THE MODELS DAMPEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES OUR FA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. NO CHANGES TO LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GFS IS HINTING AT CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID TROP RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO BE TO OUR EAST. PREFER TO LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT NEW HPC GUIDANCE...AND SEE WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES THINK AS WELL. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. A PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 95 KT 250 MB JET WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA(NEAR WINNIPEG). AT THE SFC...LOW PRES HAD MOVED INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A TROF INTO ERN ND. A FEW TSRA HAVE PERSISTED IN WRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV VCNTY STRONG 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM WITH SHOWALTER NEAR -2...PER 06Z RUC. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM NE MN INTO WRN UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT. TODAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE 06Z RUC AND 00Z NAM /PARALLEL NAM SUGGEST THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOWER IN SPREADING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO W UPR MI THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS FCST. CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. BY AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION...EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING FOR SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG (TEMPS AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50). THE MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHRTWV FOCUS WITH THE STRONGEST 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPR LVL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE H25 JET TOWARD SW UPR MI AND NRN WI. IN ADDITION THE BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY LK SUPERIOR BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST UPR MI. HOWEVER...THE SHRTWV LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SCT OFF SOME SCT -SHRA EVEN OVER THE NORTH WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. SO...TAPERED POPS FROM NMRS/LIKELY(60) OVER THE S TO SCT/CHC(30) OVER THE NORTH AND INCLUDED ONLY A SLGT CHANCE OVER THE ERN CWA. THREAT FOR STRONG TSTMS OR HAIL LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE DESPITE MODERATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND RELATIVELY LOW FRZG LVL/WBZ NEAR 9.5K FT/8.5K FT. TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE SE AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL EVEN FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PCPN. WED...SUBSIDENCE WITH SHRTWV RDG AND QVECTOR DIV ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING CLEARING OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF OF BOTH GREAT LAKES. THU INTO FRI...NO CHANGES WERE MADE AS SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO WEST UPR MI AND OVER THE CWA FRI WITH 310K-315K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG SFC-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AS THE MID LVL RDG BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 346 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON POPS TODAY INTO WED AND THEN ON QUIET WX REGIME FOR THU. WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT MAX HEADING SEWD FROM CANADA TOWARDS NRN MN. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGD TO DROP INTO THE STATE TODAY AND BRING ITS ASSOC DCVA ACRS THE CWA DURG THE AFTN HRS. POSN OF UPR JET INDICATES SOME UPR LVL DVRG COULD BE A PLAYER WITH THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INCREASES THIS AFTN TO VAULES AOA 40KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM MSN SHOW CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED BUT THATS ALSO WITH GENEROUS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THINK WE WOULD BE AT BEST IN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE M50 RANGE FROM THE NAM MOS. GFS AND NGM SHOW L50 DEW POINTS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED CAPES EVEN LOWER. GIVEN OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT TODAY DO NOT THINK WE WILL BE HAVING MUCH ADVECTIVE PROCESSES IN PLAY SO DEW POINTS IN L-M50S RANGE LOOK MORE REASONABLE. H5 CAA THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN -13 TO -15C RANGE ACRS CWA. BOTTOM LINE IS WILL KEEP CHC TSTMS GOING STARTING THIS AFTN WITH APPCH OF DCVA. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE INDICATED BY MODELS IS PROGGD TO COME THRU OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF WED. AGAIN...CAPE WILL BE EVEN LESS GIVEN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY CONSIDERATIONS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN UNFAVORABLE JET QUAD ERLY WED WITH MORE OF A LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE JET IN PLACE ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE MEANDERING VCNTY SRN WI DURG DAY AND NAM POOLS INSTAB IN SW WI. WILL THUS MAINTAIN GOING POP ALIGNMENT FOR WED. AS FOR THU IT LOOKS RIDGY ALF AND AT THE SFC. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRYING TO BRING A SUSPECT VORT MAX THRU RDG AXIS DURG THE DAY BUT OVERALL HIGH LOOKS PROTECTIVE WITH LLJ MORE FOCUSED WEST OF HERE IN THE PLAINS. FOR NOW PREFER CLEANER LOOK OF THE NAM VORT STRUCTURE AT 72 HR. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1109 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE ACROSS NE MN. JUST AHEAD OF FEATURE...SHRA HAVE SPREAD ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE ENTERED WRN UPPER MI IN THE LAST 1-2HRS. LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK HAS NOT INDICATED ANY LIGHTNING YET WITH THIS INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN. FARTHER UPSTREAM UNDERNEATH VORT...SOME LIGHTNING WAS INDICATED EARLIER...BUT NOTHING IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. GOING FCST FOR THIS AFTN IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND REQUIRES MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT. PER 12Z RUC...85-90KT UPPER JET TRACKING FROM NRN MN INTO CNTRL WI WILL PLACE ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF UPPER MI UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE THIS AFTN. THIS MORE OR LESS LINES UP WITH WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ALSO PROGGED. GOING FCST HAS THIS CAPTURED WELL WITH HIGHEST POPS W AND LOWEST E. AS FOR TSRA...UPSTREAM 12Z KINL SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR A HIGHER END T/TD COMBINATION OF 71/52F YIELDS CAPE OF 845J/KG. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THAT HIGH OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS HIGHEST ALONG WI BORDER WHERE VALUES ARE AROUND 30KT. COMBINED WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 9.5KFT AND WETBULB ZERO AROUND 9KFT...SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY WITH STRONGER STORMS...PROVIDED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO DEVELOP THE INSTABILITY. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON DURING THE AFTN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT MAIN FCST CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. A PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 95 KT 250 MB JET WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA(NEAR WINNIPEG). AT THE SFC...LOW PRES HAD MOVED INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A TROF INTO ERN ND. A FEW TSRA HAVE PERSISTED IN WRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV VCNTY STRONG 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM WITH SHOWALTER NEAR -2...PER 06Z RUC. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM NE MN INTO WRN UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT. TODAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE 06Z RUC AND 00Z NAM /PARALLEL NAM SUGGEST THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOWER IN SPREADING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO W UPR MI THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS FCST. CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. BY AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION...EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING FOR SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG (TEMPS AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50). THE MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHRTWV FOCUS WITH THE STRONGEST 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPR LVL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE H25 JET TOWARD SW UPR MI AND NRN WI. IN ADDITION THE BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY LK SUPERIOR BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST UPR MI. HOWEVER...THE SHRTWV LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SCT OFF SOME SCT -SHRA EVEN OVER THE NORTH WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. SO...TAPERED POPS FROM NMRS/LIKELY(60) OVER THE S TO SCT/CHC(30) OVER THE NORTH AND INCLUDED ONLY A SLGT CHANCE OVER THE ERN CWA. THREAT FOR STRONG TSTMS OR HAIL LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE DESPITE MODERATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND RELATIVELY LOW FRZG LVL/WBZ NEAR 9.5K FT/8.5K FT. TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE SE AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL EVEN FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PCPN. WED...SUBSIDENCE WITH SHRTWV RDG AND QVECTOR DIV ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD BRING CLEARING OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF OF BOTH GREAT LAKES. THU INTO FRI...NO CHANGES WERE MADE AS SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO WEST UPR MI AND OVER THE CWA FRI WITH 310K-315K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG SFC-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AS THE MID LVL RDG BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON (UPDATE) JLB (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 927 AM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED... EASTERLY GRADIENT WAS REINFORCED LAST NIGHT AS WAVE DROPPED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG IS HUGGING THE EASTERN SLOPES FROM BIL WESTWARD. THIS APPEARS A BIT THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AM THINKING IT WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE/LIFT. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...AND MENTIONED FOG AS WELL. SOME DENSE FOG AT BOZEMAN PASS PER WEB CAM COVERED IN A NOWCAST. VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS RESULTED IN SOME VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OUR AIRMASS AGAIN TODAY. MORNING RIW SOUNDING SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL WYOMING...PWATS RANGE FROM O.31 INCHES THERE TO OVER AN INCH AT GGW. GFS/NAM/RUC SHOW DRY PUNCH WITH SOME CONVERGENCE LIFTING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN PARTS LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN SOME ISOLD TSTMS OCCURRED DOWN THAT WAY LAST EVENING...BELIEVE SOMETHING SIMILAR MAY BE IN STORE FOR LATER TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLD POPS AT SHR AND ACROSS THE MT/WY/SD BORDERS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY PLENTY OF CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2KJ/KG...SO IT IS JUST A MATTER OF BREAKING THRU THE CAP. OTHERWISE WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN CA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. CURRENT POPS WITH MENTION OF SEVERE IN OUR FAR WEST TONIGHT AS THIS WAVE CLIPS US STILL LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED EXPECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY DOWN A BIT MOST PLACES...BASED ON A GOOD EASTERLY GRADIENT/POOR MIXING AS WELL AS LINGERING STRATUS OR STRATOCU IN THE WEST. UPDATE COMING SHORTLY. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER OVER MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE TROUGH HANGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRY OUT THE AIR MASS AND SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY ON WITH A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WHICH IS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THAN KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO HIGHS AND LOWS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MACZKO && .AVIATION... IFR TO LOCAL LIFR CIGS/VIS HUGGING THE EASTERN SLOPES FROM BIL AND LVM TO 3HT WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THIS AREA SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTN...THOUGH LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SHR LATE THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MLS TO BHK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WEST AND NORTH OF BILLINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE STORMS AS THEY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 084 063/089 055/078 054/081 055/080 054/077 051/077 0/B 03/T 42/T 20/B 00/B 22/T 22/T LVM 078 052/079 047/073 048/077 047/077 047/073 047/072 0/E 34/T 42/T 20/B 00/B 22/T 22/T HDN 089 058/096 054/082 053/084 051/085 053/077 053/082 0/U 02/T 42/T 20/B 00/U 22/T 22/T MLS 085 064/094 064/081 056/082 055/082 056/079 056/077 0/N 22/T 42/T 20/B 00/U 02/T 22/T 4BQ 088 061/094 063/083 053/082 052/083 053/077 054/077 0/U 02/T 42/T 30/B 00/U 02/T 22/T BHK 081 061/088 065/080 054/078 053/081 054/076 054/077 0/N 02/T 43/T 20/B 00/U 02/T 22/T SHR 090 057/094 055/079 049/079 049/082 049/077 049/074 2/T 22/T 42/T 20/B 00/B 12/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1035 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .UPDATE... RUC AND WRF STILL WANT TO BREAK SOME PRECIP OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE ALL OR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA...BUT LEFT SLIGHT POPS IN THE FAR SE FOR THE 18-00Z PERIOD JUST IN CASE. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATED TO TWEAK DP AND SKY GRIDS. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES WEST. /13 && .AVIATION... 620 AM CDT NO CONCERNS. STRAY CIRRUS...ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CU TODAY AS SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOISTEN. STILL PAPER-THIN MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN E/NE THROUGH TAF PERIOD...AS SFC HIGH MEANDERS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 425 AM CDT HIGH CLOUDS...THE DEBRIS FROM THE STORMS THAT FORMED MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ARE THINNING AS THE MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS HAVING SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND/S FORECAST IS A BIT COMPLICATED. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE JUST PLACED 20 PERCENTS AREAWIDE FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. #58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 71 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 WACO, TX 100 69 96 68 / 10 10 0 0 PARIS, TX 92 65 91 66 / 10 10 0 0 DENTON, TX 96 67 93 65 / 10 10 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 94 66 92 65 / 10 10 0 0 DALLAS, TX 97 71 94 73 / 10 10 0 0 TERRELL, TX 93 66 92 67 / 10 10 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 94 68 92 69 / 10 10 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 97 69 93 68 / 10 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 25/58 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 319 PM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED UNDER STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND COOLER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STRATOCU GRADUALLY ERODING AWAY WEST OF BILLINGS...BUT IT MAY NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY TONIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SOME CU FORMING OVER THE MTS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE SW MTS AND BIG HORNS...BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT COMING OUT OF WY. DRY LINE FEATURE IN WY IS NOT DOING MUCH RIGHT NOW...BUT BOUNDARY IS DISTINCT WITH DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN CENTRAL WY AND IN THE 50S AT BYG AND SHR. APPEARS DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT THOUGH...AND WILL KEEP ONLY MENTION OF ISOLD TS IN SOUTHERN CARTER COUNTY THIS EVENING WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SETTING UP. COUPLE THINGS AT WORK LATER TONIGHT. FIRST IS WAVE IN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE IS SEVERAL HOURS AWAY YET...BUT WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH UT/NV IT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT. LVM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SVR...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVNG OR LATER WHEN UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES. IF SOMETHING DOES GET GOING IN OUR W/NW PARTS...IT MAY BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING SELY LOW LEVEL JET...IE THE SECOND THING. WILL THUS KEEP ISOLD TS GOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT AS THIS WOULD BE FAVORED TRACK AFTER INITIATION. INTERESTING THAT BOTH THE NAM/RUC SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR WHEATLAND COUNTY LATER THIS EVNG...POSSIBLY AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO KEEPING THOSE POPS GOING. RATHER TRICKY FORECAST TOMORROW...WITH EXACT INTERACTION BETWEEN UPPER TROF/SFC FRONT AND MOISTURE/DRIER AIR STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GREATEST UPPER SUPPORT AS HEALTHY H3 JET COMES OUT OF WESTERN WY EARLY TOMORROW FAVOR KEEPING HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST. HOWEVER...AS COLD ADVECTION/WESTERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN BY THEN THINK ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL HAVE PASSED BY THEN. WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTN POPS GOING IN CENTRAL PARTS...BUT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED TIME WHEN MOISTURE/LIFT IS SUFFICIENT BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKES OVER. GREATEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIFTS UP WEST OF BILLINGS...WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE TAKING OVER BY LATE AFTN/EVNG...LIKELY FROM ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...WILL PROBABLY SEE A BAND OF CONVECTION COME THROUGH WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG PVA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN CENTRAL PARTS...BUT THINK MUCH BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE EAST LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVNG. FCST SOUNDING FROM MLS TO BHK SHOW IN EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG AND PLENTY OF SHEAR WITH A GOOD SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT EAST AS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EVENTUALLY COME THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY. WITH CHANCES OF PCPN AND EARLY ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE WEST. CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS SHOULD SEE A BURST IN TEMPS AS INVERSION FINALLY GETS MIXED OUT...SOMETIME FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SHOW WELL-MIXED AIRMASS WITH 2M TEMPS NEAR 100C AT 4BQ AS DRIER AIR SURGES OUT OF WY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT AND FOR NOW HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT MORE IN THIS AREA...TO MID OR UPPER 90S. WITH STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IN DOWNSLOPE SW/W FLOW HAVE OPTED TO DRY THINGS OUT IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS LATE WED NITE THRU THU MORNING. SECONDARY TROF WITH SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT IS SET TO COME THRU LATE IN THE DAY AND THU NITE...AND WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. FORECAST CAPES ARE NOT MUCH THOUGH...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...SO WOULD THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THU...WITH GOOD MIXING AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST PLACES. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN EXITING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND THEN TURNING THE FLOW NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN...REGARDING THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THESE FEATURES BECAUSE OF THEIR FAST MOVING AND SMALL SCALE NATURE. FEEL CURRENT FORECAST OVERALL HAS A GOOD TREND WITH TEMPS WITH NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. POPS FORECAST...WHICH PROVIDES BROAD BRUSHED 20 ISH POPS LOOKS REASONABLE AS WELL WITH THE JET ENERGY PROGGED. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MOORE && .AVIATION... MVRF CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 3HT TO LWT TO RED LODGE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRECKING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY SURROUNDING BILLINGS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY 18Z AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LATE STRONG LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. MOORE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 063/084 057/078 053/079 055/080 054/077 051/076 053/079 03/T 32/T 20/B 00/B 22/T 22/T 22/T LVM 053/075 045/072 045/077 047/077 047/073 047/072 046/074 35/T 42/T 20/B 00/B 22/T 22/T 22/T HDN 058/091 056/082 050/081 051/085 053/077 053/081 052/083 03/T 32/T 20/B 00/U 22/T 22/T 22/T MLS 063/093 064/081 056/080 055/082 056/079 056/076 052/077 22/T 52/T 20/B 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 4BQ 060/097 062/083 052/081 052/083 053/077 054/076 052/079 02/T 42/T 20/B 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T BHK 060/088 065/080 053/078 053/081 054/076 054/076 051/079 22/T 52/T 20/B 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T SHR 057/093 055/079 047/075 049/082 049/077 049/074 048/077 02/T 32/T 20/B 00/B 12/T 22/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 413 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO SEA OVER MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT JUST IN TIME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALBERTO WHICH WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND POSE NO PRECIPITATION THREAT TO US. A SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, RESULTING IN GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. ALBERTO MAY INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH AN ADDED INFLUX OF MOISTURE. WEAK INSTABILITY AND GOOD FORCING COULD ALSO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND THE AREA WILL BE SET UP FOR SOME EXCELLENT HEATING AND TEMPERATURES OF SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT THIS AREA HAS EXPERIENCED THE PREVIOUS WEEK. NEAR TERM...AT 1900Z...THE KENX RADAR SHOWS ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS A H500 VORT MAX IN THE RELATIVELY FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW MOVING THROUGH CNTRL NY. THIS IS HELPING FOCUS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS WORKING OFF WEAK INSTABILITY AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. WE HAVE ADDED LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERNIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF TS ALBERTO WILL MOVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE GULF STREAM. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS ARE AT ODDS FOR THE TIMING. WE TENDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CAN REGIONAL. THOUGH THE GFS POPS SEEM A BIT LOW TO THE WEST OF ALY. WEDNESDAY...MORE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE CAN DREG...GFS AGAINST THE NAM. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE SHOWING MORE OF A WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE ALBERTO MOISTURE. THE GFS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES RISING TO ABOUT 500 J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DON'T LOOK SPECTACULAR. THE GFS HAS LIFTED INDICES IN THE -2 TO -5C RANGE OVER SRN NY AND SW ENGLAND. THEIR IS A 100 KT H250 JET STREAK...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE FCST AREA WITH THE BEST BET SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONE INHIBITOR MAYBE THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. IF WE ARE CLOUDED IN...THEN THE LACK OF BLAYER HEATING WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OFF THE 12Z GFS ARE 35-40 KT WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE THE GENERIC GARDEN VARIETY MOST LIKELY. WE UPPED THE POPS TO LIKELY IN MOST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WED PM INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR THE REST OF FCST AREA CHANCE POPS 30-50% WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WED NIGHT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THU INTO FRI...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. ON THU...850 TEMPS AROUND +10C WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY THU NIGHT WITH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT-CALM WINDS. THE H500 RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRI...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE STRETCH. WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFSMOS TEMP VALUES IN THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES CLASSIC SUMMERTIME HEAT BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT. THE 06Z MREFS...00Z ENSEMBLE MOS DATA...00Z CAN ENSEMBLES...06Z AND 12Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...00Z CAN GLOBAL GEM RUN AND THE LATE MORNING HPC GRAPHICS WERE EXAMINED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. A RETURN FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR COMMENCES OVER THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKING CONTROL. A WEAK WARM FRONT/THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SHOT OF ANY -SHRA ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS RISE TO ABOUT 15C. ON SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS PARKED WELL NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...AS 850 MB TEMPS SOAR TO 18-20C ! SOME OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED SOME ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NY. WE SIDED WITH HPC AND THE GFS ON SUNDAY...AND KEEP IT SULTRY AND PCPN FREE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE SAME...HOT AND HUMID...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C-+19C REMAIN IN PLACE. ON MONDAY...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE AN ISSUES COUPLED WITH ANY WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. WE HAVE PLACED LOW CHANCE POPS IN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ON TUESDAY...AN UPSTREAM H500 TROUGH AND A SFC COLD FRONT TIPTOES CLOSER FROM SRN QUEBEC AND THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLAY PER THE ENSEMBLES...HPC AND THE GFS. BOTTOM LINE...TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES OF THE CONVECTIVE VARIETY WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY POSSIBLY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND FOR NOW KEEPING SCATTERED CLOUDS SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LIGHT...ALSO SUPPORTING THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TOMORROW...CONTINUING TO ACKNOWLEDGE SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. POINT RAINFALLS IN ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE A HALF INCH OR MORE...BUT AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW...AND ANY FLOOD THREATS RIVER...STREAM OR OTHERWISE...ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NY...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRACEY SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 146 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO SHRA ON THE RADARS AS OF 18Z...WITH THE CAP HOLDING THE CU RATHER FLAT AND FAIR. WINDS LIGHT AND NNW...AND SHOULD GO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PASS THRU OVERNIGHT. THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE A SHRA IN THE NE/EC ZNS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO A 20 POP FOR THEM AS PER PREV FCSTS. RUC13 AND WRF12 RUNS DO SUPPORT THIS IDEA...TOO. MINS WILL DIP TO NEAR THE DWPTS...BUT WIDESPREAD FOG NOT LIKELY WITH 50-SOMETHING DWPTS. WILL NOT MENTION IN ZFP TEXT. OUR FRIEND ALBERTO IS PROGGED BY STEADY NHC FCSTS TO STAY WELL EAST OF CWA...AND WILL COUNT ON THAT. BUT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC TROF WILL BE OVER OUR SERN ZNS ON WED AND THIS COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION. WILL RUN WITH PREV FCST AND STE POPS WITH NEAR 50 POPS IN FAR SE...TAPERING TO JUST 20 POPS IN NW. MAXES LOOK LIKE TODAY...MAYBE A DEG OR TWO COOLER. DANGELO && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH WARMER AIR FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE LAST IN A LONG SERIES OF SHORTWAVES STILL HAS TO PASS BEFORE THE REAL WARMUP BEGINS. THIS WAVE...LOOKS LIKE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...IS JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND MID DAY AND HEADED SOUTHEAST TWD THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IT WON'T BE MUCH OF A WEATHER MAKER SINCE IT WILL BE WORKING ON A PRETTY DRY AIRMASS...BUT IT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE BIG REVERSAL TAKES PLACE. SO BEFORE WE WARM UP...WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL COME ALONG COURTESY OF THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO. THE TROPICAL STORM IS JUST NOW COMING ASHORE SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SHELL POINT AND KEATON BEACH. IT HAS A VERY EXTRA-TROPICAL LOOK TO IT ON SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS DESPITE AN EFFORT TO FORM AN EYEWALL JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE STORM CENTER IN WHAT HAS ALL THE APPEARANCES OF A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE. MODELS TAKE ALBERTO NORTHEAST THRU COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE EMERGING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TOMORROW. IT THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND HUSTLED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR US WE MAY SEE A SHOWER FROM THE FRONT/TROF AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THINGS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF TO OUR SE BY LATER FRIDAY...WHEN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHUD START TO SURGE BACK INTO THE NERN US. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO STAY 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 TEMPS ALSO FCST TO RISE TO A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. MREF SHOWS THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO LAST INTO AT LEAST WED. IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE LITTLE MORE THAN A SHOT AT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO AT MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND KEEPS ANY APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEMS AT BAY NORTH OF THE REGION. MODELS DO SHOW PRECIP WATERS EVENTUALLY CREEPING UP...AS HIGH AS 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY...WHICH IS PROBABLY WHEN WE WILL START TO HAVE TO MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR STORMS. LA CORTE && .AVIATION... VFR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS FCST PKG...WITH ONLY BRIEF DIP TO MVFR FOG IN A FEW LOCALES AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND GENERALLY N/NW THRU THE PERIOD. WILL LEAVE ALL FCSTS DRY EXCEPT MDT DUE TO LOW CERTAINTY OF ANY SHRA ACTIVITY GOING. MOST POSSIBLE LOCATION FOR A SHOWER OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM KIPT NE. WILL JUST MENTION VCSH IN LATEST PD /AFT 15Z/ OF KMDT TAF...WITH SCT CONVECTION TO POP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. DANGELO && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 211 PM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONE MORE HOT DAY IN STORE TOMORROW AS THE H5 RIDGE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN IN AN AMPLIFIED POSITION JUST EAST THE CWA. PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY MAKES A PUSH LATE IN THE DAY WITH A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE NEB PANHANDLE...SO SOME PRE FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE TRIGGERED THERE SINCE SOME SURFACE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING. THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST SW MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND AN EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE TROUGH...BUT THE RESULTANT SFC UPSLOPE WILL AGAIN PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES. IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TSMS TO THE FAR NE ZONES THIS EVENING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES ABOVE SOME STRONG INSTABILITY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT IF IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD EVEN A LITTLE...CHADRON COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THRU TUE...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF ON THE LINGERING UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRI/FRI NGT. NAM LOOKS TOO QUICK WITH TROF AND ASSOCD CLD/PCPN FIELDS. HAVE KEPT SOME TSTMS FRI AFTN/EVNG MAINLY S/E. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD AS WEAK FRONT IS OFF INTO CNTRL PLAINS WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BEHIND FRONT OVER SE WY. UPPER TROF SHOULD SHIFT E OF AREA FOR DRY AND WARMER SAT INTO SUN. 12Z GFS HAS COME AROUND TO IDEA OF HIGHER HGTS LIKE ECMWF/UKMET FOR SUN INTO TUE. HOWEVER GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING IN PIECE OF W COAST TROF TUE WITH ITS ASSOCD CDFNT. 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS FRONT MAY STALL OUT NE-SW ACRS CNTRL WY TUE. LATER PERIODS OVERALL TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL. && .FIRE WEATHER...PROXIMITY OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE TOMORROW WILL PRESERVE HOT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS. RH/S SHOULD PLUNGE INTO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR WEST AND MID TEEN IN MOST PLAINS. APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PLACE DISTRICT UNDER FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE GENERALLY BLUSTERY WINDS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED 35 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...RED FLAG WARNING IS DEFINITELY WARRANTED FOR THE DRY FUEL ZONES OF 291 THROUGH 295. NEB PANHANDLE WILL DEFINITELY HIT THE RH CRITERIA TOMORROW BUT THE WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE LOW RH PERIOD BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO GET THERE. THUS...HAVE PLACED 200 AND 202 IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS PONDER THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ059-WYZ060-WYZ061-WYZ062-WYZ063-WYZ064-WYZ065-WYZ066. NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ001-NEZ002-NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055. && $$ SHORT TERM.....SOWKO LONG TERM......DLF FIRE WEATHER...SOWKO wy