Report of the BNL Neutrino Working Group:
Very Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillation
Experiment for Precise Determination of Oscillation
Parameters and Search for νµ→ νe Appearance
and CP Violation.
Coordinators: M. Diwan, W. Marciano, W. Weng
Contributors and Participants
D. Beavis, M. Brennan,
Mu-Chu Chen,
R. Fernow,
J. Gallardo, R. Hahn,
S. Kahn, H. Kirk,
D. Lowenstein, H. Ludewig,
W. Morse,
R. Palmer, Z. Parsa, D. Raparia,
T. Roser, A. Ruggiero,
J. Sandberg, N.P. Samios, C. Scarlett, Y. Semertzidis,
N. Simos, N. Tsoupas, B. Viren, P. Yamin, M. Yeh
Brookhaven National Laboratory
Box 5000, Upton, NY 11973-5000
W. Frati, J. R. Klein, K. Lande, A. K. Mann,
R. Van Berg and P. Wildenhain
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6396
R. Corey
South Dakota School of Mines and Technology
Rapid City, S.D. 57701
D. B. Cline, K. Lee, B. Lisowski, P. F. Smith
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
I. Mocioiu, R. Shrock
C.N. Yang Institute for Theoretical Physics,
State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11974 USA
C. Lu, K.T. McDonald
Joseph Henry Laboratories, Princeton University,
Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
Renato Potenza
Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare,
Dipartimento de Fisica e Astronomia,
Universita di Catania,
64, Via S. Sofia,
I-95123 Catania,
Italy
This document contains figures in color. The figures should be viewed in color.
This work was performed under
the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy,
Contract No. DE-ACO2-98CH10886.
Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary
On Dec. 1, 2001, Associate Laboratory Director Tom Kirk appointed a
BNL based neutrino physics study group. Its charge was to examine
future forefront neutrino oscillation experiments that could be
carried out using traditional νµ (anti-νµ) beams of
exceptional intensity (super beams) from an upgraded AGS. The study,
as reported in this document, addressed detector distances, sizes and
technologies as well as novel ideas for cost effective beam lines and AGS
upgrade paths. Most important, it focused on the physics discovery
and study potential in its assessment of various options.
Given the success of solar and atmospheric neutrino studies in discovering
neutrino oscillations and measuring some mixing and mass parameters, it
became clear that the next generation accelerator based neutrino oscillation
program must be very ambitious. In addition to improving measurements of
already approximately known
Δ mij2 = mi2 - mj2
and the large mixing angles θ23 and
θ12, the next major effort should be capable of determining the as yet
unknown mixing angle θ13, the mass hierarchy of neutrinos and the
phase δCP.
Together these will provide a
measure of CP violation in the lepton sector via the Jarlskog invariant
JCP = |
|
sin2 θ12 sin2 θ23
sin2 θ13cosθ13 sinδ |
Indeed, CP violation is properly viewed as the Holy Grail of neutrino
oscillations, since it may be closely connected with the matter-antimatter
asymmetry of the universe.
In order to cover a significant region of the allowed θ13 parameter
space (sin2 2 θ13 ≤ 0.2, 0≤ δ ≤ 2π),
to allow for the determination of the mass ordering to the three neutrinos and
the possible observation of CP violation
a very large detector of approximately 500 kton, a long baseline (≥2000 km) and
an intense proton source of 1 megawatt are necessary. For that reason, our
studies concentrated primarily on a water Cherenkov detector where the
required technology is mature and capable of achieving the required
large tonnage. The technical performance of the water
detectors has also been fully demonstrated in the relevant event energy
ranges.
Similarly, a relatively simple cost effective AGS
upgrade that primarily increases the repetition rate was examined. Such a
large water Cherenkov detector could also be used to search for proton decay,
supernova neutrinos, n anti-n oscillations, etc. It could also be used to
significantly improve measurements of atmospheric neutrino oscillations.
Indeed, an extremely attractive picture that emerged from our studies was a
very large multi-physics water Cherenkov detector with outstanding discovery
potential in many frontier areas of physics as well as a robust guaranteed
program of detailed studies and precise measurements.
In this report, we describe our vision of the very long baseline neutrino
oscillation experimental component of that program. It assumes that a 500
kton or larger water Cherenkov detector will be built somewhere in the USA
perhaps as a major component of a National Underground Lab and its distance
from BNL will be considerable, e.g.. BNL-Homestake (2540 km) or BNL-WIPP
(2900 km). To have a sufficient number of detected neutrino events at that
distance, a 1 MW AGS proton source (currently the AGS has 0.14 MW of power)
is envisioned with targetry focusing and a decay tunnel capable of providing
an intense wide band neutrino beam (at 0 degree production) with good support in the
0.5 ≤ Eν≤ 7 GeV energy range.
The experimental specifications described above were originally chosen with
the idea of measuring the CP violating parameter
δ via νµ→ νe
oscillations. However, during the course of our studies, it became clear
that such an effort has a much richer and more diverse physics program.
Indeed, in the scenario we have studied in detail (BNL-Homestake), two
measurements, νµ
disappearance oscillations detected via muon events and
νµ→ νe
appearance oscillations via electron events together provide a wealth
of information.
During the initial research program,
a run of 5 × 107 sec (probably distributed over 5 years),
the νµ disappearance study will resolve several oscillation maxima and
minima (thus firmly establishing oscillations) and measure Δ m322 to
1% or better
and sin2 2 θ23 to 1% or better,
significant improvements over existing or planned
measurements. In the νµ→ νe
appearance mode, the νe + n → e- + p quasi-elastic events
over the 0.5 GeV range will allow the following investigations to
be completed:
-
Search for and measurement of sin2 θ13
to below 0.005 via matter enhanced
oscillations.
- Determine the sign of Δ m312,
i.e. whether m3 is the
largest or smallest of the 3 neutrino masses, also via matter enhancement or
suppression effects in the 3-7 GeV region.
- Measure sinδ
(and cosδ) to
about ± 25% thus determining Jcp and the δ
quadrant.
- Measure Δ m212
and θ12
from the νµ→ νe
oscillations of low energy 0.5-1.0 GeV
neutrinos with about the same sensitivity as Kamland, but in an appearance
rather than disappearance mode.
The above program is extremely rich, covering essentially all the parameters
of 3 generation neutrino mixing as currently envisioned. It is also robust,
offering important measurements even if some parameters
whose values we have assumed in our calculations
change significantly.
Together with the search for proton decay and
study of cosmic neutrinos, our accelerator based long baseline neutrino
oscillation program represents a major step forward in the advancement of
science. Beyond the first research period,
one could envision further accelerator and beam
upgrades, antineutrino runs, or additional beams from other accelerator
facilities. Indeed, the large detector that forms the centerpiece of this
effort should be expected to function for half a century or more
expanding our knowledge of all the
above noted research areas.
This report will show that the bold program envisioned above is technically
feasible and economically attractive.
We show that the
existence of the AGS machine at BNL with its straightforward and economical
upgrade to the needed 1 MW power level, taken together with the needed
very long baseline available for at least two appropriate detector sites,
makes
this approach to a practical facility the best one for the next-generation
U.S. neutrino physics program. The identified physics goals are compelling and
not covered by less ambitious alternatives. Nevertheless, its realization
will require strong commitment and vision. The high payoff is worth the
effort.
2 Introduction
Brookhaven National Laboratory and collaborators
started a neutrino
working group to identify new opportunities in the field of
neutrino oscillations and explore
how our laboratory facilities can be used to explore this field
of research. The memo to the working group and the charge are
included in Appendix I.
This report is the result of the deliberations of the working group.
Previously, we
wrote a letter of intent to build a new high intensity neutrino beam
at BNL [1].
A new intense proton beam will be used to produce
a conventional horn focussed neutrino beam directed at a detector
located in either the Homestake mine in Lead, South Dakota
at 2540 km or the Waste Isolation Pilot
Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, NM at 2880 km [2, 3].
As a continuation of the study that produced the letter of intent,
this report examines several items in more detail.
We mainly concentrate on the use of water Cherenkov detectors
because of their size, resolution, and background rejection
capability, and cost. We examine the prospects of building such a
detector in the Homestake mine.
The accelerator upgrade will be carried out in phases.
We expect the first phase to yield a 0.4 MW proton beam and the
second phase to result in a 1.0 MW beam. The details of this
upgrade will be reported in a companion report. In this report
we assume accelerator intensity of 1 MW for calculating
event rates and spectra. We also assume a total experimental duration
of 5 years with running time of 107 seconds per year.
We examine the target station and
the horn produced neutrino beam with focus on two topics:
target and horn design for a 1 MW beam and the broad band spectrum of
neutrinos from a 28 GeV proton beam.
3 Neutrino Oscillations
The strongest evidence for neutrino
oscillations comes from astrophysical observations of
atmospheric neutrinos with Δ m322 = (1.6 - 4.0) × 10-3
eV2 and maximal mixing [4],
and from
solar neutrinos with Δ m212 = (3
-10) × 10-5 eV2 assuming the LMA solution [5].
The observation by the LSND
experiment [6] will soon be re-tested at Fermilab by the
mini-Boone [7] experiment. Therefore we will not discuss it
further in this document.
There are several accelerator based experiments (K2K,
MINOS, and CNGS) [8, 9, 10, 11, 12] currently
in the construction phase or taking data
to confirm the atmospheric neutrino signatures for
oscillations.
There is now a consensus that there are four main goals
in the field of neutrino oscillations
that should be addressed soon with accelerator neutrino
beams:
-
Precise determination of Δ m322 and sin2 2 θ23
and definitive observation of oscillatory behavior.
- Detection of νµ→ νe in the appearance mode. If the measured
Δ m2 for this measurement is near Δ m322 then this
appearance signal will show that (=
sin2θ13) from the neutrino mixing matrix in the standard
parameterization is non-zero.
- Detection of the matter enhancement effect in νµ→ νe in the
appearance mode. This effect will also allow us to measure the sign
of Δ m322, i.e. which neutrino is heavier.
- Detection of CP violation in neutrino physics. The neutrino
CP-violation in Standard Model neutrino physics comes from the phase
multiplying sinθ13 in the mixing matrix. This phase
causes an asymmetry in the oscillation rates
νµ→ νe versus anti-νµ→ anti-νe.
In this report we describe how all of these goals can
be achieved under reasonable assumptions for the various parameters
using the new intense AGS based beam and the very long
baseline of BNL to Homestake laboratory of 2540 km.
In Section 3 we estimate the event rates, backgrounds and oscillation
signals. This section highlights the physics measurements achievable with the detector
being proposed, focusing on its sensitivity to various oscillation parameters.
In Section 4 of this report we briefly describe the
accelerator upgrade path
to achieve a proton source with intensity greater than 1 MW.
In Section 5 we examine the conventional neutrino beam
spectrum and the target-horn station.
In Sections 6 we summarize the report and give a breakdown of the expected
costs.
4 Very Long Baseline Experiment
Figure 1: BNL wide band spectrum with the new graphite
target and horn design. This spectrum is at 0 degrees with respect to
the proton beam on target and the normalization is at 1 km from the
target.
We calculate the event rate without oscillations assuming a
1.0 MW proton beam power with 28 GeV protons (1.1 × 1014
protons per pulse), a 0.5 MT fiducial mass
water Cherenkov detector and 5 years of running. Because
BNL's Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) can run in a parasitic
mode to the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), we expect to get
beam for
as much as 1.8× 107 sec per year. However, we conservatively
assume only 1.0× 107 sec of AGS running
per year here. Using these
parameters, the 0∘ flux from Figure 1
and the relevant cross sections, we calculate that the
number of quasi-elastic
charged current muon neutrino events in a
detector located at 2540 km will be ∼ 12000
in five years running.
Table 1 shows the number of different kinds of
events we expect in the absence of oscillations.
The large statistics combined with the long baseline
make many of the following important measurements possible.
Table 1: Number of events of different types for the very long
baseline experiment. The parameters are 1 MW of beam, 0.5 MT of
fiducial mass, and 5 years of running with 107 seconds of
live time each year.
CC, NC, QE, stands for charged current, neutral current,
and quasielastic, respectively.
The νe interaction rate is from the electron neutrino
contamination in the beam.
Reaction |
Number |
CC νµ+ N → µ- + X |
51800 |
NC νµ+ N → νµ+ X |
16908 |
CC νe + N → e- + X |
380 |
QE νµ+ n → µ- + p |
11767 |
QE νe + n → e- + p |
84 |
CC νµ+ N → µ- + π+ + N |
14574 |
NC νµ+ N → νµ+ N + π0 |
3178 |
NC νµ+ O16 → νµ+ O16 + π0 |
574 |
CC ντ+ N → τ- + X |
319 |
(if all νµ→ ντ) |
|
4.1 νµ disappearance
Figure 2: [
Neutrino produced muon angle distribution, data and Monte Carlo.]
Angular distribution of muons from the process
ν
µn → µ
- p (top curve) and
background from
ν
µN → µ
- N' π (bottom curve).
The histogram is data from AGS experiment
E734 (year 1986) and the lines are Monte Carlo.
Figure 3: [
Oscillation nodes
vs. distance.]
Nodes of neutrino oscillations
for disappearance (Not affected by matter effects) as a
function of oscillation length and
energy for Δ
m322 = 0.0025
eV
2.
The distances from FNAL to Soudan (the distance from BNL to Morton
salt works is approximately the same[
36])
and from BNL to Homestake are shown by the vertical lines.
Figure 4: [
Expected ν
µ disappearance spectra, Δ
m322 = 0.0025]
Spectrum of detected events in a 0.5 MT detector at
2540 km from BNL including quasielastic signal and CC-single pion
background.
We have assumed 1.0 MW of beam power and 5
years of running. The top histogram is without oscillations;
the middle error bars are with oscillations and the bottom histogram is
the contribution of the background to the oscillated signal only.
This plot is for Δ
m322 =
0.0025
eV
2.
The error bars correspond to the statistical error expected in
the bin. A 10 % detector energy resolution is assumed.
At low energies the Fermi movement, which is included in
simulation, will dominate the resolution.
Figure 5: [
Expected ν
µ disappearance spectra, Δ
m322 = 0.001]
Spectrum of detected events in a 0.5 MT detector at
2540 km from BNL including quasielastic signal and CC-single pion
background.
We have assumed 1.0 MW of beam power and 5
years of running. The top histogram is without oscillations;
the middle error bars are with oscillations and the bottom histogram is
the contribution of the background to the oscillated signal only.
This plot is for Δ
m322 =
0.001
eV
2.
The error bars correspond to the statistical error expected in
the bin. A 10 % detector energy resolution is assumed.
At low energies the Fermi movement, which is included in
simulation, will dominate the resolution.
The angular distribution of the muons from the quasi-elastic process
νµ + n → µ- + p produced by the 0o beam in
Figure 42 was measured
in experiment E734 (1986) at BNL. It
is shown again in Figure 2 along with the principal
background, νµ + N → µ- + N + π [13].
A variety of strategies is possible to reduce this background further
in a water Cherenkov detector.
Knowing the direction of
an incident νµ accurately and measuring the angle and energy
of the
observed muon allows the energy of the νµ to be calculated,
up to Fermi momentum effects.
This method is used by the currently running K2K experiment
[8]. The known capability of large water Cherenkov detectors
indicates that at energies lower than 1 GeV the νµ energy
resolution will be dominated by Fermi motion and
nuclear effects[14].
The contribution to the resolution from water Cherenkov track
reconstruction depends on the photo-multiplier tube coverage. With
coverage greater than ∼ 10%, we expect that the
reconstruction resolution should be more than
adequate for our purposes [21]. In the
following discussion
we assume a 10% resolution on the νµ energy.
This is consistent with the resolution projected for
10% coverage from the K2K experience [15].
The range of Δ m322 ∼ 1.24Eν[GeV] /L[km] covered by the proposed experiment using the beam in
Figure 1 extends to the low value of about
5 × 10-4 eV2. The lower end of this extensive range of values is
considerably below the corresponding values for other long
baseline terrestrial experiments [11, 12]. If the value of
Δ m322 turns out to be towards the lower end (∼ 10-3) of its
current range, or if the value of Δ m212 turns out to be towards its
high end (∼ 10-4 eV2), then large and very
interesting interference effects in the very long baseline experiment
will be possible.
Extra-long neutrino flight paths open the possibility of observing
multiple nodes (minimum intensity points) of the neutrino oscillation
probability in the disappearance experiment. Observation of one such
pattern will for the first time directly demonstrate the oscillatory
nature of the flavor changing phenomenon. The nodes occur at
distances Ln = 1.24 (2n-1) Eν/Δ m322, n= 1,2,3, ....
In Figure 3, as an example, we show the flight path L versus
Eν relationship of the nodes for Δ m2 = 0.003
eV2, a value close to the value measured in atmospheric
neutrino experiments [4]. An advantage of having a very
long baseline is that the multiple node pattern is detectable over a
broad range of Δ m2. For Δ m322 as small as 0.001 eV2,
the oscillation effects will be very large.
The two single charged pion reactions νµ+ p → µ- + p + π+ and
νµ + n → µ- + n + π+ produce a signal which is
somewhat larger than the quasi-elastic total
in Table 1.
For these events,
if both the muon and the pion produce more than 50 photoelectrons
each, the event can be easily identified as a two ring event in a water Cherenkov detector
and rejected. 50 photoelectrons
corresponds to about 170 MeV/c (250 MeV/c) for muons (pions) for a detector
with 10% photo-multiplier coverage.
An additional cut to require the muon to be within 60o of the neutrino
direction reduces the background further.
With such a cut,
we find that 18% of the events will show one ring (principally the µ-).
The detection of two muon decays, one from the µ- the other from
the decay chain π → µ → e, could be used
to further suppress this background by approximately a factor of 2.
More importantly, background events can be tagged by the two muon decays
to determine the shape of the background from the data itself. This will
greatly increase the confidence in the systematic error due to this background.
The reaction νµ + n → µ- + p + π0 (the
only allowed CC-π0 reaction) is ∼15% of the total quasi-elastic rate. The
momentum distribution of µ- and π0 are essentially the same as those
for CC-charged pion production. Only 0.5% of the CC-π0 events
will look like quasi-elastic muon events because at least one
of the gamma rays from the
π0 decay is usually visible.
Thus this background is negligible
in the quasi-elastic sample.
The expected plot of signal and background is shown in Figures
4 and 5.
They show the disappearance of
muon type neutrinos as a function of neutrino energy measured
in quasi-elastic events. The
background, which will be mainly charged current, will also oscillate, but
the reconstructed neutrino energy will be systematically lower for the
background. Nevertheless, the main effect will be to slightly
broaden the large dips due to disappearing muon neutrinos.
In Figure 6 we show the statistical
precision expected on the measurement of Δ m322 and
sin2 2 θ23
for several different points in the parameter space.
It is clear that since the signal and the statistics are large, the
systematic error in fitting the spectrum
will dominate the final error.
We list various effect that must be considered for the
measurement with brief comments about each.
- The determination of Δ m2 has a statistical uncertainty of
approximately ± 0.7% at Δ m2 = 0.0025 eV2 with maximum mixing.
It is about ± 1.0% when sin2 2 θ23 = 0.75.
Clearly, the knowledge of the energy scale will be very important in
measuring this number. If the energy scale uncertainty is
δ E/E then the final error will be given by
Therefore, it will be very important to understand the energy calibration of
the detector to about 1 % for muon energy of ∼ 1 GeV.
One solution could be
a magnetic spectrometer to measure the momentum of cosmic ray muons
entering the detector. This consideration could affect the depth at which
this detector should be mounted. Another option could be a
linear accelerator that could provide protons or electrons at a rate
of few Hz at ∼ 100 MeV.
- Even if the overall energy scale is known well,
the energy calibration could vary non-linearly over the entire spectrum.
The worst effects of these fluctuations
will be where the spectrum has the
maximum slope. This effect will cause additional
smearing of the spectrum and reduce the resolution on Δ m2.
We assume a 5% uncertainty of the energy calibration over the
entire range.
It should be pointed out that the oscillation minima should be at
energies that are in precisely known ratios of integers: 3, 5, 3/5, etc.
This could be used to determine the relative
energy scale precisely. On the other hand these ratios could be important
to determine the presence of new physics
(non-sinusoidal depletion of muon neutrinos) in the oscillations.
- The model of Fermi motion and reconstruction resolution
will affect both the shape of the signal and the background
used in the fit. The consequences of this effect are probably the same
as the previous one in terms of the resolution of fitted
parameters.
It was pointed out earlier that some of the
the CC-π+ background could be
tagged by two muon decays. This sample of events can be
used in separate fits to put more constraints on the
detector simulations.
The large number of
charged current
events (∼ 52000)
that are not quasielastic could also be used in the same
manner.
- The statistical uncertainty in the determination of
sin2 2 θ23 is ± 0.016 at sin2 2 θ23=0.75 and
Δ m322 = 0.0025 eV2. This determination is somewhat better at
smaller Δ m2. At maximum mixing, Figure 6 shows that we
can determine sin2 2 θ23 > 0.99 at 90% confidence level.
We expect this error to be even smaller if proper background subtraction is
performed on the data.
Normally the determination of this quantity depends on the
systematic error for the normalization of the flux. However,
in the case of very
long baseline,
the largest part of the sensitivity comes from the shape of the spectrum
or how deep the valleys are compared to the peaks (see Figure 4).
Therefore, this determination is not affected greatly by the systematic error
for the overall normalization.
This is demonstrated as follows:
for Δ m322 = 0.003 eV2,
even without background subtraction, the valleys at π /2
and 3π/2 have only 2% and 30% of the un-oscillated event rate
(see Figure 4).
If we assume the flux normalization error to be 5%, which is consistent
with what has been achieved by the K2K experiment[15],
then the expected error due to flux normalization
on sin2 2 θ23 is
0.02× 0.05 = 0.001.
- We note that within the parameter region of interest there should be
very little correlation in the determination of Δ m322 and
sin2 2 θ32.
Figure 6: [
Statistical uncertainty for Δ
m322 and sin
22θ
23]
Statistical resolution at 68%, 90% and
99% confidence level on Δ
m322 and sin
2 2θ
23
for the 2540 baseline experiment; assuming 1 MW, 0.5 MT, and 5 years
of exposure.
Figure 7: [
Statistical and systematic uncertainty for Δ
m322 and sin
22θ
23, includes other's allowed regions.]
Resolution including statistical and systematic effects
at 68%, 90% and
99% confidence level on Δ
m322 and sin
2 2θ
23
for the 2540 baseline experiment; assuming 1 MW, 0.5 MT, and 5 years
of exposure. We have included a 5% bin-to-bin systematic
uncertainty in the
energy calibration as well as a 5% systematic
uncertainty in the normalization. The expected resolution
from the MINOS experiment
at Fermilab and the allowed region from SuperK is also
indicated.
Figure 8: [
The allowed region from the K2K experiment.] The allowed region for Δ
m322 and sin
22θ
23 from the K2K experiment.
From thesis by Eric Sharkey, SUNY at Stony Brook.
With the assumption on the systematic errors as above we obtain
Figure 7. The systematic errors introduce a small correlation in
the Δ m322 vs.
sin2 2 θ32 measurement. The error on the determination of
Δ m322 at 0.0025 eV2 increases to about ± 1.2%
at maximum mixing,
but there is only a small effect on the determination
of sin2 2 θ23.
As mentioned before, the energy scale uncertainty must be added in quadrature
to the calculated uncertainty on Δ m322.
The precision of this experiment can be compared
with the precision expected from
MINOS (Figure 7) and the precision obtained so far from the K2K
experiment (Figure 8). It is expected that K2K will obtain twice
as much data; therefore we could naively estimate that the precision on the
parameter determination will improve as 2-0.5.
Finally, we note that the flux normalization is usually
obtained by placing a
detector close to the neutrino source. For example, both K2K and MINOS
have large near detectors to determine the flux. Since
absolute flux determination
is not very important for parameter determination in our case, we argue that
the requirements on a near detector need not be very severe for this
measurement. It may not be necessary to build a near detector until
sufficient statistics are obtained in the far detector to demand the
required systematic error reduction of a near detector.
4.2 νµ→ νe appearance
The oscillation of νµ→ νe is
discussed is several recent papers [16, 17, 18, 19].
This oscillation in vacuum is described fully by
the following equation:
|
P(νµ→νe) |
= |
4(s232s132c132 +JCPsinΔ21)
sin2 |
|
|
|
|
|
+2(s12s23s13c12c23c132 cosδ -s122s232s132c132) sin
Δ31 sinΔ21 |
(1) |
|
|
+4(s122c122c232c132 +s124s232s132c132 -2s123s23s13c12c23c132
cosδ -JCP sinΔ31) sin2 |
|
|
|
|
|
+8(s12s23s13c12c23c132 cosδ - s122s232s132c132) sin2
|
|
sin2 |
|
|
|
|
where
JCP ≡
s12s23s13c12c23c132sinδ
(2)
JCP is an invariant that quantifies CP violation in the neutrino
sector. The abbreviations sij ≡ sinθij,
cij ≡ cosθij,
and Δij
≡ Δ mij2 L / 2 Eν are used.
The formula for P(anti-νµ→anti-νe) is the same as
above except that the JCP terms have opposite sign.
The vacuum oscillations for a baseline of 2540 km are
illustrated in Figure 9 as a function of energy for both muon
and anti-muon neutrinos. The main feature of the oscillation is due
to the term linear in sin2Δ31/2. The oscillation
probability rises for lower energies due to the terms linear in
sin2 Δ21/2. The interference terms involve CP
violation and they create an asymmetry between neutrinos and
anti-neutrinos. The vacuum oscillation formula (Eq.1)
and Figure 9
show that the CP asymmetry also grows as 1/E in the 0.5-3.0 GeV
region. The parameters listed in the figure are
sin2 2 θ12=0.8, sin2 2 θ23=1.0, and
sin2 2 θ13=0.04 and
Δ m212=5.0× 10 -5 eV2,
Δ m322=0.0026 eV2.
Similar notation for parameters will be followed in the rest of the document.
Because of this effect it is argued that the figure of merit
for measuring CP violation is independent of the baseline. For very
long baselines the statistics for a given size detector at a
given energy are poorer by one over the square of the distance, but
the CP asymmetry grows linearly in distance [17].
The background to the electron neutrino signal comes from
contamination in the beam (νe/νµ∼ 0.7%) and
neutral current events. At small distances the
systematic error on this background could limit the ability to extract
the CP violating effect, but at large distance the background
reduces as 1/(distance)2 and allows us to greater sensitivity to CP
violating effects. We rely on this important observation in the rest of this
section.
Figure 9: Probability of νµ→ νe
and anti-νµ→ anti-νe oscillations at 2540 km in vacuum
assuming a δCP=+45o CP violation phase. It can be seen that the
CP asymmetry between νµ and anti-νµ increases
for lower energies because the CP asymmetry is proportional
to Δ m212 L /E which increases for lower energies.
The parameters listed in the figure are
sin2 2 θ12=0.8, sin2 2 θ23=1.0, and
sin2 2 θ13=0.04 and
Δ m212=5.0× 10 -5 eV2,
Δ m322=0.0026 eV2.
Figure 10: Probability of νµ oscillating into
νe after 2540 km. The parameters assumed are listed in the
figures. The upper and lower curves correspond to CP phase angle of
+45o and 0o respectively. We point out that the effect of
CP phase increases for lower energies.
Figure 11: Probability of νµ oscillating into
νe after 2540 km. The parameters assumed are listed in the
figures. This plot assumes a CP violation phase of +45o.
The upper and lower curves are for neutrinos and anti-neutrinos,
respectively. We see that for distance of 2540 the matter effects will be
large and will lead to almost complete reversal of nodes and anti-nodes
for neutrinos and anti-neutrinos. The probability for neutrinos with
Δ m322 < 0 will be similar to (but not exactly the same as) anti-neutrinos.
The vacuum oscillation formulation must be modified to include the
effect of matter [18]. The νµ→ νe probability in the
presence of matter is shown in Figures 10 and
11. When compared to Figure 9 we can see that
matter will enhance (suppress) neutrino (anti-neutrino) conversion at
high energies and will also lower (increase) the energy at which the
oscillation maximum occurs. The effect is opposite (enhancement for
anti-neutrinos and suppression for neutrinos) if the sign of Δ m322
is negative. The Figures 9 to 11 gives us hints about possible
strategies in understanding neutrino oscillation parameters.
In the low energy region from 0 to 1.0 GeV, the probability for
νµ→ νe is dominated by the effects of Δ m212
if the solution to the solar neutrino deficit is the large mixing angle
(LMA) solution. An excess of electron like events in this region
would be sensitive to Δ m212 and sin2 2 θ12.
In the intermediate energy region from 1.0 to 3.0 GeV, we see that
the CP violating phase δCP has a large effect on the
oscillation probability and the effects of matter
are relatively small. Therefore this energy region could be used
to measure the CP violating phase δCP from the
observed spectrum of electron like events.
The higher energy region with energy greater than 3.0 GeV
is clearly the region of discovery for νµ→ νe oscillations
as well as the sign of Δ m322.
In the case of the normal
mass hierarchy (m3 > m2 > m1) the oscillation signal in the high
energy region for neutrinos will be enhanced by more than a factor of 2.
Moreover, as we will discuss below, the backgrounds from
both neutral currents and intrinsic νe will fall
in this region. Therefore the appearance signal will have a
distinctive shape to distinguish it from the background.
In the case of (m2 > m1 > m3) the oscillation signal in the high
energy region will be almost completely suppressed. However, there will be
a peak between 2 and 3 GeV. If sin2 2 θ13 is sufficiently
large, this will be a clear signature for Δ m322 < 0,
a very important result in particle physics.
Finally, matter enhancement of the oscillations has been postulated for a long time
without experimental confirmation [20]. Detection of
such an effect by measuring a large asymmetry between neutrino and
anti-neutrino oscillations or by measuring the spectrum of electron
neutrinos is a major goal for neutrino physics. This measurement will
also yield the sign of Δ m322.
4.3 Backgrounds
While the νµ disappearance result will be
affected by systematic errors, the νµ→ νe appearance
result will be affected mainly by the backgrounds.
The signal we are looking for consists of clean, single ring electron events in
the detector. The signal will mainly result from the
quasielastic reaction νe + n → e- + p. The main backgrounds
will be from neutral current reactions and the intrinsic electron
neutrinos in the beam. Most of the ∼ 17000 neutral current reactions
from Table 1 are either elastic scattering off nucleons or
single pion production channels. Of these, the channels that produce
single π0 will be the major source of backgrounds. We estimate that
approximately
2800 NC events will have multiple pions in the final state.
Half of these will have at least one π0.
We expect that these can be rejected much more effectively
than the single π0 production
channels which will have ∼ 3700 events (see Table 1).
This number includes the coherent production channel of
νµ+ O16 → νµ+ O16 + π0.
The charged current background channel,
νµ+ n → µ- + p + π0,
in which the muon remains invisible was shown to be small for a similar beam spectrum
in the E889 proposal [21].
Figure 12: The q2 distribution of νµ+ N → νµ+ N + π0
channels. Here q2 = ((p'N + p'π) - pN)2. pN is the
initial 4 momentum of the target nucleon (assumed to be at rest in
the lab frame). p'N and p'π are the 4-momenta of the
final state nucleon and pion, respectively.
The peak of the distribution is
independent of neutrino energy. The neutrino energy
only determines the physical cutoff of the q2 distribution.
The slightly negative behavior of the distribution is caused by
the Fermi motion of the target nucleus which was assumed to be at rest in
the above formula.
Figure 13: The π0 energy
distribution of νµ+ N → νµ+ N + π0
channels with no cuts.
The peak of the distribution is
independent of neutrino energy. The neutrino energy
determines the high energy cutoff of the distribution.
The distribution is about 3 orders of magnitude
suppressed above 2.5 GeV where we expect the
signal from νµ→ νe appearance.
For a baseline of 2540 km, the matter enhanced oscillation
signal will be above 3 GeV.
Our strategy for obtaining a unique, clear signal therefore
depends on the observation that
neutral current background will peak at low energies and fall
rapidly as a function of observed energy.
This is demonstrated in Figures 12 and 13 for
the neutral current single pion production channel.
In Figure 12 we see that the q2 distribution peaks at
low values and is nearly independent of the neutrino energy.
The neutrino energy
only determines the kinematic limit of the q2 value.
This behavior leads most neutral current events to be at low energies.
Figure 13 shows the distribution of total π0 energy for
single pion production events with no detector cuts. We see that
the distribution is about 3 orders of magnitude
suppressed above 2.5 GeV where we expect the
signal from νµ→ νe appearance
(see Figure 10). Therefore, we
propose that even a modest rejection of neutral current background
above 2.5 GeV is sufficient to provide us with good sensitivity
for νµ→ νe appearance.
This modest rejection can be obtained by first cutting all
events with visible energy less than 500 MeV. Further
rejection is obtained by
getting rid of events with two showers each with energy greater than
150 MeV separated by more than 9 degrees in angle and by cutting events
with angle between the shower and the neutrino direction of greater than
60 degrees; this was
calculated using a fast Monte Carlo with appropriate angle and energy
resolution corresponding to a water Cherenkov detector. At high energies,
above 3 GeV, a full simulation of a large water Cherenkov
detector showed
us that it is possible to obtain about a 50% rejection based on the
Cherenkov ring characteristics. The overall rate of π0
misidentification is shown in Figure 14.
It should be noted
that the advantage of the very long baseline is in applying
a simple cut on the total visible energy to eliminate most of the
background. The rate of
π0 misidentification for neutral current events (Figure 13)
above 500 MeV is 6%.
The efficiency for electrons is shown on the right hand side of
Figure 14. The efficiency for quasielastic
electron neutrino events is 64% at
energy less than 1.5 GeV. Above 1.5 GeV the efficiency is 90%.
Using appropriate resolution and efficiency factors we obtain the
predicted background spectrum of electron like showering events in
Figure 15.
The reconstructed electron energy and
the angle of the electron with respect to
the neutrino direction is used to reconstruct the neutrino energy assuming a
quasielastic scattering event.
Figure 15 includes backgrounds from the
neutral current single π0 production off nucleon as well as coherent
π0 production off O16, which has a much more energetic spectrum.
The spectrum also includes the background from νe
contamination in the beam.
The predicted number of total background events
is 146 with the beam-νe contamination
accounting for 70 events.
It should be remarked that above 2 GeV the background
is dominated by the beam-νe contamination: there are
35 νe events versus
17 π0 events. This is despite the
rather poor rejection of NC(π0) events
at high energies.
Below 2 GeV the background will be dominated by the NC(π0) events: with
35 νe events and 59 π0 events.
Therefore any error in the determination of the NC(π0) background including
contamination from other neutral current background channels (which will have
similar energy dependence) will not significantly
affect the high energy region above 2 GeV where we expect to see a distinct
signal for electron neutrino appearance.
Figure 14: On the left: the rate of misidentification of
π0 events as electrons versus total π0 energy
for the calculations in this
paper. On the right: electron efficiency used in this calculation.
Figure 15: Spectrum of reconstructed electron neutrino energy (assuming
quasielastic events) of the background for νµ→ νe search.
This is for 1 MW beam power, 0.5 MT detectors mass and 5× 107
sec of running.
The top histogram includes both the NC(π0) and electron
contamination backgrounds.
The electron neutrino contamination is also shown separately.
4.4 Sensitivity to sin2 2 θ13
Figures 16 and 17 show
the spectrum of electron like
events that will be detected at 2540 km. The signal for
Δ m322=0.0025 eV2 and
sin2 2 θ13 ∼ 0.04 will be about 200 events.
The advantages of the very long baseline are in obtaining a large
enhancement at higher energies and creating a nodal pattern in the
appearance spectrum. Both of these can be used to further improve the
sensitivity of the experiment.
It should be noted that the value of Δ m322 will be
known very precisely from the disappearance measurement; this value
can then be used to precisely predict the shape of the spectrum
of electron-like events. Unlike past experiments in
which only a simple counting of signal over background was performed,
the node pattern in this experiment will be a strong
confirmation of νµ→ νe.
The broadband beam also allows for sensitivity over a broad range of
Δ m322. This can be seen in Figure 17.
Figure 16: Spectrum of detected quasi-elastic electron neutrino
charged current events in a 0.5 MT detector at 2540 km from BNL.
We have assumed 1 MW of beam power and 5 nominal years of running.
This plot is for Δ m322 = 0.0025 eV2. We have assumed
sin2 2 θ13 = 0.04 and
Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2.
The error bars correspond to the
statistical error expected in the bin. The spectrum includes
effects of Fermi motion, energy resolution and efficiency.
Figure 17: Spectrum of detected quasielastic electron neutrino
charged current events in a 0.5 MT detector at 2540 km from BNL.
We have assumed 1 MW of beam power and 5 nominal years of running.
This plot is for Δ m322 = 0.0015 eV2. We have assumed
sin2 2 θ13 = 0.04 and
Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2.
We calculated the background electron spectrum assuming
sin2 2 θ13=0; then we varied the
parameters, Δ m312 and sin2 2 θ13,
and calculated the χ2 with respect to the background
spectrum.
The other parameters in this calculation were set as follows:
Δ m212=6× 105 eV2,
sin2 2 θ12=0.8,
sin2 2 θ23=1.0 and δCP=0.
We assumed that the remaining parameters will be well-known
from other experiments. However, the small uncertainty
on Δ m212
will cause us to lose sensitivity to sin2 2 θ13
at values of Δ m322 < 0.001 eV2, outside the
region favored by SuperK.
For the calculation
we assume a 10% systematic error (in addition to the
statistical error) on the background
spectrum of events. This level of
systematic uncertainty is attainable with a modest sized near detector
and it compares well with proposals for other such experiments.
The 90%
confidence level upper limit obtained from this calculation is
shown in Figure 18. The same figure also shows
the sensitivities of several other proposed experiments as well as
the current best limit from the CHOOZ reactor
experiment. The current upper limit at Δ m312 = 0.0025 eV2
is sin2 2 θ13 = 0.12.
It should be noted that if Δ m322 is lower
the current limit becomes much poorer.
(We will use
the values sin2 2 θ13 = 0.04 and sin2 2 θ13 = 0.06,
which are a factor 1/3 and 1/2 below the current limit as benchmark
points for some of the plots.)
The sensitivity shown in Figure 18 can be divided in
two regions: above Δ m322 = 0.0015 eV2
(in the parameter region preferred by the SuperK data)
the electron
spectrum shape will be very distinct and show at least
two clear nodes;
below Δ m322 = 0.0015 eV2 the statistics will be
larger and we will get a better limit, however the signal will not
have the distinct shape that will be a strong confirmation of
an oscillation signal. Moreover, the sin2 2 θ13
measurement in the lower region could be correlated with Δ m212.
The sensitivity for the BNL-to-Homestake experiment declines
as Δ m322 becomes larger and the first oscillation
node moves to higher energies where our spectrum has
much lower flux. This can be improved by adding more focusing
elements to the horn-produced beam to increase the high
energy flux; however, this will increase the background for the
lower energy events. We are in the process of performing
these optimization studies to determine the best spectrum shape for
this experiment.
Lastly, we note that the sensitivity does not depend strongly on the
amount of neutral current background. This is shown in
Figure 19 where we have calculated the 90% confidence
level upper limit assuming that the the neutral current background
is twice as high as in Figure 15.
This is because the spectrum is already dominated by the intrinsic
νe background in the higher energy region above 2 GeV.
Therefore any additional NC background makes little difference to the
statistical sensitivity.
Much higher NC background
will affect the spectrum below 2 GeV and this could lower
the sensitivity to CP parameters as well as Δ m212.
Figure 18: Expected 90% confidence level upper limit
on sin2 2 θ13 versus Δ m312 for the
BNL-to-Homestake experiment compared to other proposed
experiments. The current limit from the CHOOZ reactor experiment
is also shown on the same plot.
Figure 19: Expected 90% confidence level upper limit
on sin
2 2 θ
13 versus Δ
m312 for the
BNL-to-Homestake experiment. The two curves are
with the background as predicted in Fig.
15
(the left hand curve) and
assuming the neutral current background to be a factor of
two larger (the curve to the right).
4.5 Sensitivity to the CP violation parameter
As shown in Figure 9, the effect of CP violation grows linearly
as energy is decreased (or the baseline increased). For a very long
baseline experiment, it is possible to compare the signal strength in
the π/2 node versus the 3π/2 or higher nodes. Such a
comparison will yield a measurement of the CP violation parameter
δCP. Such a measurement can be done with only neutrino beam
running over most of the parameter region (anti-neutrino running not
necessary).
Any such
measurement of CP should eventually be augmented by data using a muon
anti-neutrino beam in the same experiment. Nevertheless,
we have calculated the sensitivity to CP parameter δCP with
only neutrino running.
In Figure 20 we plot the reconstructed neutrino spectrum for
electron-like events including background for 3 different values of
δCP. The effect of δCP is clearly large for
the lower energy signal region as pointed out earlier. In Figure
21 we further examine the effect of CP on the electron
spectrum. This plot shows that both the size of the modulation
and the phase shifts as we examine different energy bins.
The phase shift is due to the presence of terms involving both
sinδ and cosδ in the νµ→ νe
probability over the entire spectrum.
The broadband beam, therefore,
allows us to fit the entire spectrum and gives
us good sensitivity to δCP with much reduced correlation
with sin2 2 θ13.
Figure 20: The observed electron neutrino spectrum including
background contamination for
3 different values of the CP parameter δ
CP.
The error bars are for δ
CP = 135
o; the errors
bars indicate the statistical error on eah bin.
The red histogram
below the error bars
is for δ
CP = 45
o, and the blue histogram
is for δ
CP = -45
o.
The green hatched histogram shows just the background (Figure
15).
This plot is for Δ
m322 = 0.0025
eV
2.
We have assumed
sin
2 2 θ
13 = 0.06 and
Δ
m212 = 6× 10
-5 eV
2. The values of
sin
2 2 θ
12 and sin
2 2 θ
23 are set to
0.8, 1.0, respectively.
Figure 21: The event rate in 3 energy bins from
Fig.
20 as a function of δ
CP. This plot also
includes the background in each of the 3 energy bins.
This plot shows that both the phase and the size of the modulation
changes as we examine different energy bins.
Thus a fit to the entire spectrum should give us good sensitivity
to δ
CP.
It is clear from Figure 20 that sensitivity to νµ→ νe
depends on both sin2 2 θ13 and δCP. Therefore,
we have calculated the 90% confidence level upper limit on
sin2 2 θ13 as a function of δCP with all other
parameters fixed in Figure 22. The region on the right
hand side of the curves in Figure 22 can be excluded
if no excess of electrons is found as expected
for the parameters shown in the figure.
Figure 22: 90% and 95% confidence level upper limit in sin2 2 θ13
as a function of δCP
if no excess of electron is found as expected
for
Δ m322 = 0.0025 eV2, and
Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2. The values of
sin2 2 θ12 and sin2 2 θ23 are set to
0.8, 1.0, respectively.
If sin2 2 θ13 is reasonably large then a good measurement of
δCP is possible from the neutrino data alone.
68% and 90% confidence level
error contours are shown in
Figure 23 with statistical errors only for
δCP=45o and
sin2 2 θ13 = 0.06 (the other parameters are listed
in the figure caption).
Systematic errors on the background will mainly affect the
low energy (0.5 to 2 GeV)
region, which has large sensitivity to the CP parameter.
We have calculated the
error contours assuming 10% systematic uncertainty on the background in
Figure
24. We believe that with the use of a near detector
as well as clearly tagged background events we can achieve
10% determination of the expected background.
Figures 25 and 26 show the expected error
contours at sin2 2 θ13 = 0.04, δCP=135o and
sin2 2 θ13 = 0.06, δCP=-90o, respectively.
Two important observations considering these results are:
if we perform the measurement without using a wide band beam in a
narrow region of L/E the result will have a severe correlation
between sin2 2 θ13 and δCP; this correlation is
broken by the use of a wide band beam. Secondly,
the expected error on δCP is ± 20o over a wide
range of sin2 2 θ13; it can be improved considerably
with modest amount of anti-neutrino data running.
We will examine the consequences of the anti-neutrino running
in an update to this paper.
For the result in this section on the CP measurement we have assumed that the
values of Δ m212 and sin2 2 θ12 will be
well known. The measurement of δCP is, of course,
correlated to these quantities. On the other hand, we could
fit the observed electron distribution for the quantity JCP×
Δ m212 to simply detect the presence of CP-violating terms
in the spectrum without attempting to measure δCP.
We will examine these and other subtleties in the next update to
this paper.
Figure 23: 68% and 90% confidence level error contours in sin2 2 θ13
versus δCP for statistical errors only.
The test point used here is
sin2 2 θ13=0.06 and δCP=45o.
Δ m322 = 0.0025 eV2, and Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2. The values of
sin2 2 θ12 and sin2 2 θ23 are set to
0.8, 1.0, respectively.
Figure 24: 68% and 90% confidence level error contours in sin2 2 θ13
versus δCP for statistical and systematic errors.
The test point used here is
sin2 2 θ13=0.06 and δCP=45o.
Δ m322 = 0.0025 eV2, and Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2. The values of
sin2 2 θ12 and sin2 2 θ23 are set to
0.8, 1.0, respectively.
Figure 25: 68% and 90% confidence level error contours in sin2 2 θ13
versus δCP for statistical and systematic errors.
The test point used here is
sin2 2 θ13=0.04 and δCP=135o.
Δ m322 = 0.0025 eV2, and Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2. The values of
sin2 2 θ12 and sin2 2 θ23 are set to
0.8, 1.0, respectively.
Figure 26: 68% and 90% confidence level error contours in sin2 2 θ13
versus δCP for statistical and systematic errors.
The test point used here is
sin2 2 θ13=0.06 and δCP=-90o.
Δ m322 = 0.0025 eV2, and Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2. The values of
sin2 2 θ12 and sin2 2 θ23 are set to
0.8, 1.0, respectively.
4.6 Sensitivity to mass hierarchy
There are three possible neutrino mass hierarchies possible
with the existing data on atmospheric and solar neutrinos.
For most of this paper we have assumed
the normal mass hierarchy (NH): m3 > m2 > m1.
The reversed mass hierarchy (RH), m1 > m2 > m3,
will be ruled out if the preferred Solar-LMA solution is confirmed
in the near future. The LMA solution depends on m2 > m1
through the MSW mechanism.
The third possibility, m2 > m1 > m3, called the unnatural
hierarchy (UH), will result in a very different appearance spectrum
in the case of the BNL to Homestake experiment. This is illustrated in
Figure 27; the UH possibility causes a suppression νµ→ νe
oscillation in the high energy region. However, the second oscillation
maximum is still present and it is quite sensitive to the CP phase.
In the case of UH, therefore, we will still obtain reasonable
sensitivity to sin2 2 θ13 with neutrino running, but it will
depend strongly on δCP
as shown in Figure 28.
Figure 27: Probability for νµ→ νe oscillations
as a function of neutrino energy for a baseline of 2540 km.
The three curves correspond to regular mass hierarchy (RH) with
δCP = 0o (black), irrational mass hierarchy (IRH) with
δCP = 0o (red), and irrational mass hierarchy (IRH) with
δCP = 180o (blue). The other parameters are indicated in
the figure.
Figure 28: Expected 90% confidence level upper limit
on sin2 2 θ13 versus Δ m312 for the
BNL-to-Homestake experiment for the UH hypothesis
for running with neutrinos for 5 years.
We have used δCP = 0o and δCP = 180o
for the two curves labeled BNL-HS-UH-CP0 and BNL-HS-UH-CP180, respectively.
The limit that can be obtained for the NH possibility with δCP = 0o
is also shown labeled BNL-HS-NH.
For a large region of parameter space, the UH and NH possibilities can be
separated with good significance using the spectrum obtained from the
neutrino running only. Nevertheless, anti-neutrino running may be essential
if sin2 2 θ13 is small. The probability of anti-νµ→ anti-νe
for the UH case in the of anti-neutrinos is shown in Figure 29. In
the UH case the oscillation probability is enhanced in the high energy
(> 3 GeV) region. This could be detected easily by changing the polarity
of the horn focussed beam to make an anti-neutrino beam.
For this report we have concentrated on first running the beam
with the neutrino
polarity. In an updated to this report we will examine the event rates,
and sensitivities for anti-neutrino running. Nevertheless, we can make
a few remarks based on experience from [13].
The horn focussed anti-neutrino
flux will be about 80% of the neutrino flux. However, the event rate from
anti-neutrino will be suppressed because of the lower cross section. The
event rate will also have about 10% contamination from neutrinos. An
important feature, however, for the very long baseline experiment can be
seen in Figure 30, which shows the cross section for quasielastic
events for neutrinos and anti-neutrinos. In the interesting energy region
about 3 GeV where we expect the matter enhanced signal for anti-neutrino
running, the quasielastic cross section for anti-neutrino running is about
70% of the neutrino cross section. This implies that the sensitivity
to sin2 2 θ13 in the UH case using anti-neutrinos could be
quite good with similar amount of running as in the neutrino case for NH.
Figure 29: Probability for anti-νµ→ anti-νe oscillations
as a function of anti-neutrino energy for a baseline of 2540 km.
The two curves correspond to unnatural mass hierarchy (UH) with
δCP = 0o (black), and unnatural mass hierarchy (UH) with
δCP = 180o (red).
The other parameters are indicated in
the figure.
Figure 30:
Cross section for quasielastic events. νe + n → e- + p
for neutrinos and anti-νe + p → e+ + n for anti-neutrinos.
4.7 Sensitivity to Δ m212
The distance of 2540 km is sufficient
to obtain an appreciable signal for νµ→ νe
because of the dominant mixing due to Δ m212 and
sin2 2 θ12 if the LMA (Large Mixing Angle)
solution holds for
the solar neutrino anomaly.
This is shown in Figures 31 and 32.
The parameters for the best fit point in the LMA solution
contour were used for Figure 31. An excess of 62 events
is expected in the lower part of the energy spectrum.
If the true value of Δ m212 is at the upper end of the
LMA solution (12.0× 10-5 eV2) then a rather large excess
of 230 events is expected. This signal can result in
a reasonably good measurement of Δ m212; at the LMA
best fit point the expected accuracy is ± 20%. The confidence
level contours are shown in Figure 33 where the LMA allowed
contour is approximated as a rectangle. Statistical and 10% systematic
error on the background are included in this determination.
The accelerator experiment by itself will yield a result with
a correlation between
Δ m212 and sin2 2 θ12; therefore another
experiment must provide a measurement of sin2 2 θ12 to give the
best result on Δ m212.
If there is no excess of electron-like events in the spectrum
such as Figure 31 then an upper limit can be obtained
on the parameters Δ m212 versus sin2 2 θ12.
Such a 90% confidence level
limit is shown in Figure 34. This limit was obtained using
statistical errors and a 10% systematic error on the background.
This experiment can cover most of the LMA solution; if the background
can be measured better or
suppressed further then all of the LMA region could be
covered.
Such a measurement of the parameters governing the solar neutrino
anomaly in the νe appearance mode is qualitatively very different
from measurements in the SNO experiment or long baseline reactor
experiments such as KAMLAND [22] and confirms the neutrino
oscillation picture in a useful new mode.
Figure 31:
Spectrum of electron-like events for
sin2 2 θ13=0. The other important parameters are
Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2 and
sin2 2 θ12 =0.8.
Figure 32:
Spectrum of electron-like events for
sin2 2 θ13=0. The other important parameters are
Δ m212 = 6× 10-5 eV2 and
sin2 2 θ12 =0.8.
Figure 33: 68, 90, and 99 percent confidence level contours for a measurement
at the LMA best fit point. Both statistical and systematic errors are
included. We assume a 10% systematic error on the background.
Figure 34: Expected 90% confidence level limit on Δ m212
versus sin2 2 θ12 if there is no excess of electron-like
events. Both statistical and systematic errors are included.
4.8 The Experimental Strategy and Program
For most of this document we have shown the possible results of
running with a neutrino beam for a total of about 5 years
of practical operation.
The actual running conditions will, of course,
depend on the physics results that will be produced as
the experiment progresses. The great advantage of this
proposed program is that it is so rich in its physics reach that
important new physics results will come forth after every year of running.
These results, in turn, will determine the character of running for the
next period.
For example, after only about 2 years of running
we will have a very accurate determination of Δ m322
and sin2 2 θ23. At this stage, if we see a substantial
peak in the electron spectrum at the expected energy, we will
have strong evidence for the natural mass hierarchy (NH) and then
continue running with neutrinos to detect the presence of
CP violating terms. But if we see no electron signal, we
would then switch to antineutrino running. Since at higher energies
(> 3 GeV), the antineutrino quasielastic cross section is
70% of the neutrino quasielastic cross section, it will not take
a very large amount of antineutrino running to see a peak in the
positron spectrum at the expected energy
if sin2 2 θ13 is > 0.01 with the unnatural
mass hierarchy. Determination of the
mass hierarchy is by itself a major goal of this experimental
program.
If the value of sin2 2 θ13 is too small, one will still
complete the experimental program to determine Δ m212
in the appearance mode, a qualitatively different mode
from the SNO or the KAMLAND experiments, and a confirmation of
the oscillation picture we now have.
It should also be pointed out that although the absolute determination
of Δ m322 may be limited by systematic errors on the
energy scale, this systematic error is eliminated when we compare the
values of Δ m322 obtained from neutrino versus
anti-neutrino running. Such a comparison will yield a truly unique
test of CPT conservation and more new physics.
Other unexpected results cannot be ruled out because of the
spectacular physics reach of such an experiment. These results
will influence the running conditions as well as
future accelerator, beam, and detector upgrade paths.
We also emphasis that this all-inclusive neutrino oscillations
program can be completed in a single facility. Other proposed
methods that feature a sequential experiments approach
will take much longer to perform and will ultimately
cost more. This is an important strategic point for
the US particle physics program.
4.9 Detectors for the very long baseline experiment
The conversion of Homestake Gold Mine in Lead, South Dakota, into the
National Underground Science and Engineering
Laboratory (NUSEL), tentatively to take
place in the next few years, will provide a unique opportunity
for a program of
very-long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments. As explained
above, these experiments are possible only
due to the length of the baseline,
2540 km, from the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to Lead.
It is proposed that the NUSEL facility will accommodate either an
array of detectors or a single monolithic one both with total masses
approaching 1 Megaton. Most of these will be water Cherenkov detectors
that can observe neutrino interactions in the desired energy range
with sufficient energy and time resolution [23]. Details of
underground construction of these detectors is provided in Appendix
II.
An alternative to Homestake also exists at the Waste Isolation Pilot
Plant (WIPP) located in an ancient salt bed at a depth of ∼ 700
meters
near Carlsbad, New Mexico.
One advantage of the WIPP site is that it is owned
by the DOE and now has a program of underground science.
We note that the recent Neutrino Factory Study [24]
at BNL identified the
WIPP site as one possible location for a far detector,
and the current BNL neutrino beam could use the same concept.
The distance from BNL to WIPP is about 2880
km. The cosmic ray background will be higher at WIPP because the
facility is not as deep as Homestake, which has levels as deep as ∼
2500 meters. The increased background, although undesirable, is not an
insurmountable problem. However, the mechanical design of a large
cavity in a salt bed has to be very different because of the slow
movement of salt that causes a cavity to slowly collapse.
The issue of depth is not one that greatly impacts this experiment. A
modest overburden is needed so that the detector is not swamped by
cosmic ray muon events and thus overwhelmingly dead. Because the beam
spill times are well known, simple timing gates suffice to remove
virtually all direct cosmic ray backgrounds. This method is
successfully used in the K2K experiment. The background from cosmic
ray muon spallation events as well as electrons from muon decay are
both well below the analysis energy threshold. However, there is a
very rich array of physics that a large underground detector can do in
the time between beam spills many of which either benefit from or
require depths of greater than 3000 meters water equivalent[26].
Figure 35 shows the cosmic ray muon intensity as a
function of depth.
Figure 35: Cosmic ray muon intensity as a function of depth in meters water equivalent (m.w.e) (from ref [
25]).
In this report we will not address the detailed issues of detector
design and cost. A more detailed study of a very large water Cherenkov
detector has been done by the UNO collaboration [26]. Figure
36 shows a conceptual design drawing of their detector
layout.
Figure 36: Conceptual design of baseline UNO detector (from ref [
26]).
Another option for detector technology is a liquid Argon (LAR)
time projection chamber.
Although a massive LAR detector (500 kT)
cannot be ruled out at this stage, a near LAR detector
to precisely
measure the beam spectrum appears to be a very attractive
possibility.
The viability of a large liquid argon detector
is presently being demonstrated
by the ICARUS collaboration [37] in cosmic-ray tests of a
300-ton module located on the Earth's surface.
Currently, a study is in progress to site the LANNDD, 70 KT liquid
Argon detector at WIPP [38, 39].
The key issue at this stage is of safety and
a proposal to the DOE to study this is in preparation.
The LANNDD detector can be used for neutrino physics, as well as
the search for proton decay and other astro-particle
physics goals. Currently, the ICARUS detector at the Gran Sasso is
being constructed with a 3kT detector as a goal. The operation of
this detector will provide key information for the eventual
construction of LANNDD and for the neutrino physics identified in this
paper.
A magnetized liquid argon detector would give the maximal discrimination
against backgrounds in a neutrino beam, would enhance the ability to
perform CP violation experiments, and would permit use of a beam
produced by a solenoid focusing scheme [40]
that contains both neutrinos and antineutrinos. An R&D experiment is
proposed to use a prototype liquid argon detector in
a magnetic field to determine the sign of electrons via analysis of
their electromagnetic showers up to several GeV [41].
5 AGS Upgrade
The Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) at BNL is
presently the world's highest
intensity, multi-GeV proton accelerator and is a natural
candidate for the proton
driver needed to provide multi-megawatt proton beams (superbeams) for
the next generation of neutrino oscillations research program
in the U.S. Taking this qualitative
fact to the next level, accelerator scientists at BNL have
created a credible and
effective plan for upgrade of the AGS to the 1 MW proton source
needed by the neutrino program advocated in this paper.
The increase is a factor of 6 from the present
0.17 MW beam power level.
Furthermore, this plan could be time
phased to evolve in stages from a 0.4 MW source available in a few years to an
ultimate capability of
up to 4 MW if such driver power is needed to complete the neutrino
research program. At present, we believe a 1 MW source will be adequate for the
foreseen program.
Our planned upgrade path would begin with the addition of a 1 GeV
superconducting extension to the existing 200 MeV Cu LINAC that currently feeds
the Booster ring. The resulting 1.2 GeV hybrid LINAC would bypass the Booster
and inject directly into the AGS.
The purpose here is to eliminate the need for six complete Booster cycles to
fill
the AGS and to inject all the needed 1.2 GeV protons in about 0.7 milliseconds.
This
step increases the average AGS power from 0.17 MW to 0.4 MW, enough to credibly
begin
the proposed neutrino oscillations program. By next adding new power supplies
for the AGS ring, plus added RF power to rapidly accelerate the beam to 28 GeV,
the AGS will be operational at the 1 MW power level. Further upgrades could
increase the power level
to as high as 4 MW if this becomes necessary.
We also note that the technical basis for the proposed upgrade has been
documented in
a recent study for a muon storage ring, "Feasibility Study-II of a Muon-Based
Neutrino
Source", June 14, 2001 [24]. Here we present a brief summary of the parameter
lists for the required AGS upgrade, along with a summary of the direct costs that were
derived in the muon storage ring study.
The 1 MW requirements are summarized in
Table 2 and a layout of the upgraded AGS is shown in Figure 37.
Table 2:
AGS Proton Driver Parameters.
|
Total beam power |
1 MW |
Protons per bunch |
0.4× 1013 |
Beam energy |
28 GeV |
Injection turns |
230 |
Average beam current |
42 µA |
Repetition rate |
2.5 Hz |
Cycle time |
400 ms |
Pulse length |
0.72 ms |
Number of protons per fill |
9× 1013 |
Chopping rate |
0.75 |
Number of bunches per fill |
24 |
LINAC average/peak current |
20/30 mA |
|
Figure 37:
AGS Proton Driver Layout.
5.1 Superconducting LINAC
The superconducting LINAC (SCL) accelerates the proton beam
from 200 MeV to 1.2 GeV. The presented configuration
follows a similar design described in detail in
[27] and [28]. All
three LINACs are built up from a sequence of
identical periods. The major parameters of the
three sections of the SCL are given in Table 3.
The low energy section operates at 805 MHz and accelerates
proton from 200 to 400 MeV. The following two sections,
accelerating to 800 MeV and 1.2 GeV respectively, operate
at 1.61 GHz. A higher frequency is desirable for
obtaining a larger accelerating gradient with a more
compact structure and reduced cost. The SCL will be
operated at 2K for the assurance of reaching the
desired gradient.
Table 3:
General Parameters of the SCL.
|
LINAC Section |
LE |
ME |
HE |
|
Average Beam Power, kW |
7.14 |
14.0 |
14.0 |
Average Beam Current, µA |
35.7 |
35.7 |
35.7 |
Initial Kinetic Energy, MeV |
200 |
400 |
800 |
Final Kinetic Energy, MeV |
400 |
800 |
1200 |
Cell Reference β0 |
0.615 |
0.755 |
0.887 |
Frequency, MHz |
805 |
1610 |
1610 |
Cells/Cavity |
8 |
8 |
8 |
Cavities/Cryo-Module |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Cavity Internal Diameter, cm |
10 |
5 |
5 |
Total Length, m |
37.82 |
41.40 |
38.32 |
Accelerating Gradient, MeV/m |
10.8 |
23.5 |
23.4 |
Cavities/Klystron |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Norm. rms Emittance, πmm-mrad |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Rms Bunch Area, πoMeV (805 MHz) |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
5.2 Upgrade to 4 MW
The AGS-based neutrino superbeam can be further
upgraded to 4 MW by: 1) increasing the LINAC
energy to 1.5 GeV, 2) increasing the AGS intensity to
1.8× 1014 ppp, and 3) increasing the
AGS rep rate to 5.0 Hz. The associated problems
in beam dynamics, power supply, RF system, beam
losses and radiation protection are under study
and appear to be feasible if such a
capability is required by the physics experiments.
5.3 Cost of the AGS upgrade
A preliminary cost of upgrading the accelerator complex to 1 MW is
shown in Table 4.
This upgrade could be done in phases if required by the
funding plan. We are still in the
process of creating a detailed staging plan.
Table 4: Preliminary direct costs of upgrading the AGS to 1 MW.
These costs do not include EDIA, contingency, and overheads.
1.2 GeV Superconducting LINAC |
|
LE SC LINAC |
$36.1 M |
ME SC LINAC |
$25.9 M |
HE SC LINAC |
$28.2 M |
AGS upgrades |
|
AGS Power Supply |
$32.0 M |
AGS RF upgrade |
$8.6 M |
AGS injection channel |
$ 3.7 M |
Full turn extraction |
$ 5.5 M |
Total |
$140 M |
6 Neutrino Beam Design
The geographic location of BNL on one side of the continent allows us
to send beams to a variety of distances including very long baselines
of 2000 km or more. This is shown in Figure 38. The
distances from BNL to Lead, SD (Homestake),
and WIPP in NM
are 2540 and 2880 km, respectively. The respective dip angles
are 11.5, and 13.0 degrees. The difficulty of building the
beam and the cost increases with the dip angle but all these angles and
distances are feasible.
Our conceptual design for a beam to Homestake is
shown in Figures 39 and 40.
It can be adapted to any far location in the Western direction.
Our design addresses a number of issues.
At BNL we are constrained to keep the beam line above the water
table which is at a shallow depth (∼ 10 m)
on Long Island. Therefore the beam has to be constructed on
a hill that is built with the appropriate 11.5 degree slope.
Fortunately, it is relatively easy, and inexpensive to
build such hills on Long Island because of the flat, sandy
geology. It is important to keep the height of the hill
low so that the costs are not dominated by its
construction.
The proton beam must be elevated to
a target station on
top of the hill. The cost of the hill can be lowered
by bending the proton beam upwards as quickly as possible.
We have, however, chosen the design and the bend angle used
for the RHIC injection lines in our proposal because
the RHIC injection lines have well known costs.
The proposed fast-extracted proton beam line in the
U-line tunnel will be a
spur off the line feeding RHIC. It will turn almost due west, a few
hundred meters before the horn-target building. In addition to its 90
degree bend, the extracted proton beam will be bent upward through
13.76 degrees and then down by 15 degrees
to strike the proton target. The downward 11.30 degree
angle of the 200 meter
meson decay region will then be aimed at the
4850 feet level of the Homestake laboratory. This will require
the construction of a 54 meter hill to support the target-horn building,
so as to avoid any penetration of the water table. At its midpoint
(about Lake Michigan) the center of the neutrino beam will be roughly
120 km below the Earth's surface.
Figure 38: Possibilities for very long baselines from BNL.
The distances from BNL to Lead (Homestake), and
WIPP are 2540, and 2880 km, respectively.
Figure 39: The beam line for sending a neutrino beam to Homestake mine,
South Dakota.
This same beam line can be adapted for any far location in the Western
direction.
Figure 40: Elevation view of the neutrino beam line to
Homestake, South Dakota. For a nearer location a much smaller
hill can be constructed. In this beam we assume a decay tunnel
length of 200 m. For a shorter tunnel the cost of the hill will
reduce as shown in Table
5.
6.1 Optimization of the wide band spectrum
Figure 41: The design of the horn focusing system used for
the E734 experiment adapted from the E889 proposal.
Figure 42: Wide band horn focussed neutrino spectrum for 28 GeV protons
on a copper target. The spectrum is approximately the same if
Super-Invar is used as target material.
Spectra of neutrinos are calculated at various angles with respect to the
200 m decay tunnel axis at the AGS and at a distance of 1 km from the target.
For this report we have attempted to optimize the beam for
the Homestake distance (2540 km). However, our optimization
process could be applied to any distance.
As already explained, the ideal beam for
Homestake will be a broadband beam that covers ∼0.5 GeV to
∼7.0 GeV range. The νµ→ νe process through
Δ m212 (solar oscillations) will generate a sizable effects
at the lowest energies. The energy range 1-3 GeV will be important
for the detection of CP violation. The energy region 3-5 GeV
contains the first matter enhanced (for neutrinos with regular
mass hierarchy) νµ→ νe oscillation maximum. Recall
that the highest energies are important for establishing
the existence of νµ→ νe signature because this region is
free from the neutral current π0 background and should have
very good efficiency for the signal. Lastly, the energy region 6-7 GeV
is important for the νµ disappearance measurement.
To obtain a broad band neutrino spectrum we have adapted the standard
scheme of multiple parabolic horns, each one focuses a different pion
momentum region. The difficulty with this approach is that the lowest energy pions
we need to capture and focus are approximately 1-2 GeV and come
from a long target.
Figures 41 and 43
shows the design of the target and horn geometry for
a conventional wide band neutrino beam, similar
to that used in previous experiments at
BNL, such as E734.
The E734 design used a water cooled 1.5 interaction length copper target.
The calculated energy distributions of a νµ beam produced by
28 GeV protons is shown in Figure 42 [21]. The
0∘ calculation has been shown consistent with neutrino beam
data [29]. A copper target will not survive the
1 MW intensity proton beam that we propose. Therefore,
both new materials and new focusing geometries must be considered.
We discuss the target in much more detail in a later section.
The two main issues in the target design are the target material and the
space available
for cooling. If a dense material, such as Super-Invar, is
used then the spectrum will be approximately the same as shown in
Figure 42. A better approach is to use graphite
as the target material and modify the horn geometry to
allow for a longer target (Figure 43).
The result of these modifications is shown
in Figure 44. The electron neutrino contamination is
shown on the same scale in Figure 45. We have used a
1.5 interaction length graphite target.
As shown in the figures, the flux resulting from a graphite target is
considerably higher in the 3.5 to 8 GeV region.
There is no significant change in the ratio of electron type neutrinos
to muon type neutrinos between a graphite and a copper target.
We have used the neutrino flux from Figures 44
and 45 for the calculation of event rates and backgrounds in
the rest of this report.
Figure 43: The horn geometry in the GEANT simulation.
The vertical and horizontal scales are in the ratio of 1 to 13. The beam
is incident from the left.
There is a large
(∼ 50%) model dependent
uncertainty on the neutrino flux at high energies (>4 GeV).
In particular the hadron production model in MARS gives lower
flux than in GEANT [30]. This
uncertainty will most likely be resolved by new experiments [31, 32]
in the near future.
Figure 44: Wide band horn focussed muon neutrino spectrum for 28 GeV protons
on a graphite target. The spectra of neutrinos are calculated at various
angles with respect to the 200 m decay tunnel axis and at a distance of 1 km
from the target.
Figure 45: Wide band horn focussed electron
neutrino spectrum for 28 GeV protons
on a graphite target.
Spectra of νe are calculated at various angles with respect to the
200 m decay tunnel axis and at a distance of 1 km from the target.
Further work on the
optimization of this spectrum for the very long baseline experiment is
ongoing. Further optimization focuses on enlarging the horns to accept more
lower energy pions so that the flux near 0.5 GeV can be enhanced, using
an evacuated or helium filled decay tunnel, and
as using the hadron hose [33] to capture more higher energy
particles.
6.2 Target Station
To use the 1 MW proton driver proposed for BNL, serious
consideration must be given to the target selection.
It is desirable to choose a solid target for generating a high intensity
neutrino beam.
For pion production with high power proton beams, target
integrity becomes an important issue. Up to now, the production
of secondary particles has been limited to proton beams with
average beam power on the order of 100 to 200 kW. We now
have to consider a target which can survive a 1 MW (or greater)
average proton beam power. For a 28 GeV proton beam, 1 MW
beam power implies 2.23× 1014 proton/sec. For a rep-rate
of 2.5 Hz we then must consider nearly 100 TP per spill.
A number of options have been considered and investigated both in terms of the
material selection as well as the feasibility of target configuration.
In evaluating the target choices the following concerns are being addressed:
-
Heat removal from the target.
- Survivability of the target intercepting energetic,
high intensity proton bunches.
- Irradiation issues
- Engineering integration issues
- Heat generation and removal from the horn
- Horn mechanical response
Findings of a number of recent studies [24], including
experimental results from AGS Experiment E951 [34],
on target issues for the muon collider/neutrino factory
project are taken into consideration in this effort.
Figures 47 and 48 show the spectra of π+ and π-
that are produced from a 2-interaction length target for various materials.
For a conventional neutrino beam, the useful part of the pion spectrum is
in the energy region above 2 GeV. For this reason, high-Z
targets are no longer advantageous and low-Z targets are preferred.
In addition to maximizing the flux, the target/horn configuration
must survive the thermal shock induced by
the beam and the high current.
Specifically, the target scheme must (a)
ensure the removal of the deposited beam energy within
the 400 ms period and (b) survive the thermally induced
elastodynamic stresses that are expected to be comparable
to the mechanical strength of most common materials.
Similar concerns are valid for the horn,
itself, which will be subjected to rapid heating and, as a result,
high levels of thermal stress that will propagate in its volume.
In order to satisfy the first requirement, several
cooling scenarios are being investigated such as
edge-cooling, forced helium cooling in the space between the target
and the horn, and radiation cooling. All of these
schemes present challenges stemming from integration
with the horn in a limited space. To
satisfy the second requirement, materials must
be selected such that they can withstand and
attenuate the thermal shock and be radiation resistant.
To address this, low-Z carbon based materials such as graphite and
carbon-carbon composites are being considered. These materials, while
they have a lot of promise, present some challenges.
Figure 46 shows the target mounted in the first horn. Also
the helium cooling system for the target and the water cooling manifold
for the horn are shown.
Figure 46: Sketch of the first horn with the graphite target mounted. The
target is cooled by helium. The horn is cooled by spraying water on
the conducting surface.
Two different forms of carbon,
ATJ graphite and a carbon-carbon composite are considered as candidate
target materials. These two types have been exposed to the AGS beam in
the E951 experiment[34]. The carbon-carbon composite
is a 3-D woven material that exhibits extremely low thermal expansion
below 1000oC and responds like graphite above that.
Preliminary studies on the feasibility of using
carbon-based targets for this neutrino beam have been conducted.
Specifically, utilizing the energy deposition
estimates from MARS for 1 mm and 2 mm RMS beam spots (corresponding to
3 mm and 6 mm radii of target), the thermal shock response and the
survivability potential of the target were studied. The total
energy deposited on the target (and which needs to be removed between
pulses) is 5.1 kJ for the 1mm spot and 7.3 kJ for the 2mm spot.
Since the 1 mm RMS beam spot is the most serious case, it is examined in
detail. For the 100 TP beam the peak energy density is of the order of
720 J/gram.
This is expected to lead to instantaneous temperature increases of
∼ 1000∘C. A detailed finite-element analysis that involves both
the horn and the target needs to be performed so the heat removal of the
system can be optimized and, most importantly, so the thermal shock
stresses can be computed. A material with a small thermal expansion
should experience smaller thermal stresses. However, carbon-carbon composite
materials exhibit an
increasing thermal expansion at higher temperatures. This behavior of the
material needs to be examined further. If the high temperature performance of
this material is not satisfactory, a larger beam spot size could be used.
From energy density considerations, a 2 mm rms beam spot would have a peak
temperature rise per pulse that is less than a third of the 1 mm rms case.
This would ensure that the material will be well within the safe zone.
Cooling of the front-end is achieved by maintaining the temperature at the
surface of the first 4 cm to 27oC.
Figure 47: The number of π+ per incident proton is shown as a function
of its momentum for carbon, copper and mercury targets. The target is two
interactions lengths long for each material.
Figure 48: The number of π- per incident proton is shown as a function
of its momentum for carbon, copper and mercury targets. The target is two
interactions lengths long for each material.
We examine the optimal geometry for high-energy pion production
utilizing a carbon target. In
Figure 49 we see the result of varying the radius of a
1.5 interaction length (60 cm) long carbon target as we
varied the proton beam radius. For this
analysis the target radius was constrained to 3 times the proton
beam rms radius. We note that although the total secondary
pion production increases with radius, the desired high-energy
portion of the production spectra is enhanced with smaller beam
spot sizes. In Figure 50 we fix the beam/target radius
at (2mm/6mm) and find that the production of 7-9 GeV pions increases
with target length up to about 80 cm (2 interaction lengths) and
then remains essentially constant up to 2 m.
We now explore the impact of bringing 100 TP protons/spill
onto a carbon target. For this analysis we utilize MARS to calculate
the energy deposition due to the hadronic showering within the target.
We examine the two cases of 3 mm and 6 mm radius targets in Figure
51.
We note the peak energy deposition density occurs near the entrance
of the target and has the respective values of 700 and 200 J/g. As
a figure of merit, 300 J/g is considered the danger regime where
metal targets suffer damage due to the propagation of thermal generated
pressure waves through the material. There is, however, evidence that
carbon can withstand energy depositions in this
regime. The best evidence to date comes from experience in the NUMI target
development program. The NUMI carbon target is designed to expect
390 J/g peak energy deposition. A NUMI target test, performed in
1999, utilized a specially focussed beam to produce energy depositions
in the range of 400 to 1100 J/g without any external evidence of
target breakup.
Figure 49: The ratio of the numbers secondaries to the number of primaries
is shown as a function of RMS beam radius. The target radius is assumed to
be three times the RMS beam radius and the target length is 1.5
interaction lengths.
Figure 50: The ratio of the number of secondaries to the number of primaries
is shown as a function of the target length for a target radius of 6 mm and
a RMS beam size of 2 mm.
Figure 51: The energy deposition is shown as a function of target axial
position for a 28 GeV 100 TP beam.
The secondary particle shower resulting from the interaction of
primary protons with the low-Z target will add to the transient heat
load of the horn. This shower will be less significant for low-Z
targets than for high-Z targets. However, its effect will be examined,
and added to the electric resistance heat load estimated above.
There will be activation of the target and horn structure due to
secondary and primary particles. This activation
will be primarily due to spallation products and neutrons generated
in the secondary shower. The survival of the
primary target in the radiation field needs to be examined. This
can only be carried out experimentally using a prototypic proton
beam on samples of the appropriate target material. The change in
physical properties including, thermal expansion coefficient, elastic
modulus, and yield strength, need to be examined as a function of
proton fluence.
In the current option the target is an 80-cm long cylindrical rod with
12 mm diameter sizes. The 12 mm diameter target is chosen to intercept 100
TP, 2 mm rms proton beam. With this beam size, the total energy deposited as
heat in the target is 7.3 kJ with peak temperature rise of about 280∘C.
Heat will be removed from the target through forced convection of
helium through the outside surface. This is a good solution for the
1 MW beam power.
6.3 Cost of the neutrino beam
Table 5: Preliminary direct cost (FY02$M) of building the neutrino beam with 200 meter decay
tunnel. These costs do not include EDIA contingency, and overhead.
Item |
basis |
cost |
Proton transport |
RHIC injector |
$11.8 M |
Target/horn |
E889 |
$3 M |
Installation/Beam Dump |
New |
$2.6 M |
Decay Tunnel |
E889 |
$0.4 M |
Conventional const. (hill) |
New |
$8 M |
Conventional const. (other) |
E889 |
$9 M |
Total |
|
$35 M |
A preliminary estimate of the direct costs without
burdens is shown in Table 5. The costs are based
on the the RHIC injector work, as well as the E889 proposal and
the neutrino factory study.
The conventional construction costs are
dominated by the size of the hill which is
approximately proportional to
the third power of the decay tunnel length. In our cost
estimate we assume that we will bury the beam dump underground
to reduce the height of the hill.
It is assumed that the target station shielding can be
retrieved from existing resources.
We have also estimated the cost assuming a 200 m long decay tunnel.
The spectra shown in Figure 42 are based on
this 200 m tunnel filled with air.
7 Conclusion
The possibility of making a low cost, very intense high
energy proton source at the Brookhaven Alternating Gradient
Synchrotron (AGS)
along with the forthcoming
new large underground detectors at either the National Underground
Science and Engineering Laboratory (NUSEL) in Homestake, South Dakota or at the Waste
Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico, allows us to
propose a program of experiments that will address fundamental
aspects of neutrino oscillations and CP-invariance violation. This
program of experiments is unique because of the very long
baseline of more than 2500 km from Brookhaven National
Laboratory to the underground laboratories in the West, the high
intensity of the proposed conventional neutrino beam, and the
possibility of constructing a very large array of water Cherenkov
detectors with total mass approaching 1 megaton.
This report examined the design and
construction of the necessary AGS upgrades and the new neutrino beam
which will have a proton beam of power ∼1.0 MW.
We have examined the potential physics reach of
such an experiment. We used the running scenario of
a 1 MW AGS, 500 kT of fiducial
detector mass, and 5× 107 secs of running time. With these
conditions, we conclude that such an experiment is capable of
precisely measuring Δ m322 and sin2 2 θ23;
it has excellent sensitivity to sin2 2 θ13 with a
signal spectrum that is very distinctive. Moreover, if sin2 2 θ13
is sufficiently large (> 0.01) the experiment is sensitive to
the CP-violation parameter δCP with only neutrino running.
With the additional option of running in anti-neutrino mode, the
experiment will be able to
distinguish between the cases Δ m312 > 0
versus Δ m312 < 0 using distinctive distortions to the observed
electron or positron spectrum. Lastly, the very long baseline will allow the
measurement of Δ m212 with approximately the same
resolution as KAMLAND but in the νµ→ νe appearance channel
if the LMA solution
is correct for the solar neutrino deficit.
The AGS complex is unique because it can be upgraded simply by
increasing the repetition rate
of the machine. This ability allows us the
flexibility to continuously upgrade the facility to as much as 4.0
MW [35]. In this proposal we have examined upgrades up to 1.0 MW.
The direct costs of such an upgrade are estimated to be approximately $140M.
This compares well with the estimated costs for the detectors and the
neutrino beam-line.
Neither the
duration of the construction period nor the anticipated cost of the
improvements to the BNL AGS complex is large in relation to plans and
expenditures now usual for major apparatus in high energy and
elementary particle physics.
Moreover, the
improvements to the AGS and the new beam line will be available for
carefully chosen other physics (for example, rare muon and kaon
decays as well as muon EDM measurements)[51, 52],
while advancing our understanding of the neutrino section.
8 Appendix I Working Group Charge and Assignments
Director's Office
Building 510F
P.O. Box 5000
Upton, NY 11973-5000
Phone 631 344-5414
Fax 631 344-5820
tkirk@bnl.gov
date: December 1, 2001
to: S. Aronson, M. Harrison, D. Lowenstein,
R. Palmer, V. Radeka W. Marciano, M. Diwan and W.T. Weng
from: T. Kirk
Associate Laboratory Director,
HENP subject: Neutrino R&D Working Group Charge and Assignments
Attached, please find the Charge to the Neutrino R&D Working Group
that we have discussed. As agreed, Bill Marciano will be the Neutrino
Team Leader, Milind Diwan will be the Physics Goals and Detector Team
Leader and Bill Weng will be the Accelerator and Beam Systems Team
Leader. The recruitment of working participants on the teams will be
the responsibility of the team leaders, aided by the department heads
and myself. The composition of the R&D teams will not be limited to
BNL employees. In fact, the participation of outside physicists in
the study will have obvious benefits for the next stage of the work
which is expected to be the establishment of a formal collaboration
and the creation of a formal proposal to the funding agency or
agencies to build and operate a neutrino beam and detector system and
carry out an experimental neutrino physics program. If the work gets
off to a promising start and the physics prospects appear to be
sufficiently compelling, it is possible that the initiation of the
collaboration and the start of a related proposal may overlap the R&D
study in time. Such an outcome could also have benefits for the
timely advance of neutrino physics.
We are initiating neutrino R&D work without explicit funding for this
purpose. Accordingly, the R&D work should be regarded as part of the
participants research activity, work that is generally supported by
the Laboratory research mission in high energy and nuclear physics. I
expect that the department heads will help and support the teams to
carry out the work within their capabilities. This has already been
discussed and agreed to. If conflicts arise about the allocation of
internal resources and priorities between the needs of the R&D study
and other activities of the departments that cannot be settled between
the team leaders and the department heads, I will establish a forum
for reconciliation of the conflict. I believe we are all aware of the
importance to the Laboratory of a successful outcome for this work and
we will expend our efforts accordingly.
Attachment (1)
Cc: P. Paul
Charge to the BNL Neutrino R&D Working Group
December 1, 2001
BNL intends to initiate an R&D study to refine the technical basis for
a future proposal to employ the BNL AGS as the source of a 1MW (or
possibly greater), ~1GeV neutrino beam for the continuing exploration
of neutrino physics, including CP-violation in the neutrino sector.
We also expect as the second element of this R&D study, to be key
organizers of an experimental physics and detector design effort that
will engage interested physicists in the U.S. and other countries in
the preparation of the conceptual basis for a formal proposal to
design and build a neutrino detector system to exploit the BNL
neutrino beam and to carry out the associated neutrino physics
program.
To this end, the Laboratory will designate three R&D leaders for these
efforts: the Neutrino Team Leader; the Accelerator and Beam Systems
Team Leader; and the Physics Goals and Detector Design Team Leader.
These three leaders will, in turn, be responsible for organizing the
technical work that will enable a good scientific proposal to be
written to the funding agencies that are identified as potential
sponsors of this new U.S. particle physics effort. The three team
leaders will serve until this R&D study is complete and documented in
a written report. It is intended that the written R&D report should
be completed no later than June 1, 2002.
The specific roles of the three Team Leaders comprise:
Neutrino Team Leader: The Neutrino Team Leader (NTL) will have
responsibility for ensuring that the overall goals of a successful
neutrino physics program have been covered by appropriate R&D studies
in each of the important contributing technical systems and that there
is a coherent overall time evolution plan that is consistent with
preparing a compelling proposal that addresses the goals of neutrino
physics in a timely manner. This role should be understood as
primarily a guidance and oversight role rather than a detailed
management role. The balance and completeness of the study is the
primary responsibility of the NTL.
Accelerator and Beam Systems Team Leader: The Accelerator and Beam
Systems Team Leader (ABSTL) is the person primarily responsible for
planning, staffing, carrying out and reporting on the accelerator and
neutrino beam forming systems that are relevant for the preparation of
a credible proposal to construct and operate a 1MW or greater proton
target and associated useful neutrino beam(s) using the AGS (suitably
upgraded) as the proton driver. To accomplish this mission, the ABSTL
will be helped by the relevant BNL department heads to identify
sufficient and appropriate technical staff to carry out the needed
studies. The ABSTL is also expected to create an appropriate
discussion and reporting forum(s) where the ongoing progress in this
R&D effort can be reported and discussed for the general benefit of
interested parties and participants. The ABSTL role is understood to
be the principal management role for accomplishing the desired R&D
studies in the accelerator and beam forming elements of the overall
R&D program.
Physics Goals and Detector Team Leader: The Physics Goals and Detector
Team Leader (PGDTL) is the person primarily responsible for planning,
staffing, carrying out and reporting on the physics goals and detector
strategies that are relevant for the preparation of a credible
proposal to construct and operate a detector array that can exploit
the 1MW or greater neutrino beams from the AGS proton driver. To
accomplish this mission, the PGDTL will be helped by the BNL Physics
Department head and (hopefully) by neutrino community scientists and
engineers in other institutions to find sufficient and appropriate
scientific staff to carry out the needed studies. The PGDTL is also
expected to create appropriate discussion and reporting forums where
the ongoing progress in this R&D effort can be reported and discussed
for the general benefit of interested parties and participants. The
PGDTL role is understood to be the principal management role for
accomplishing the desired R&D physics and detector studies for the
overall neutrino R&D program.
9 Appendix II Underground Detector Construction at Homestake
Plans for the construction of a multiple module megaton Cherenkov
detector at the Homestake Mine have gone through a number of essential
evaluation and design stages consisting of rock strength and stability
evaluation, chamber design and layout, construction planning and
sequencing and development of budget and timetable. Here is a summary
of these steps.
9.1 Determination of Excavation Stability
The Rock Stability Group at the Spokane Research Laboratory of NIOSH
(National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health) carried out an
evaluation of the stability of large excavations as a function of
depth in the Yates rock formation in the Homestake Mine. This
involved a three-dimensional finite difference evaluation using the
FLAC3D program. These results were compared with the empirical
prediction charts of Barton and Grimstad and Barton. The conclusions
were that 50 meter diameter by 50 meter high chambers could be safely
excavated and would be stable for long term occupancy at 2150 meter
depth and probably somewhat deeper.
The Yates rock quality was determined by direct measurement of samples
taken from the accessible edges of this formation. Before excavation
begins, it is essential that core samples from various internal
sections of the proposed rock formation are measured and the
excavation reevaluated.
9.2 Construction of Multiple 100 kiloton Modules in the Homestake Mine
Using the results of the stability evaluation a group of ex-Homestake
mining engineers, (Mark Laurenti - former Chief Mine Engineer, Mike
Stahl - former Mine Production Engineer and John Marks - former Chief
Ventilation Engineer) designed an array of ten 100 kiloton water
Cherenkov chambers. The chambers are located along the circumference
of a 250 meter radius circle that is centered on the Winze 6 shaft.
The top of each chamber is connected to the 6950 ft station of the
shaft via a horizontal, radial tunnel. A similar tunnel connects the
bottom of each chamber to the 7100 ft shaft station. Fresh air will
be sent to each chamber via the top tunnel and exhaust air removed via
the bottom tunnel, thus providing independent air supplies to each
chamber.
During chamber construction, waste rock will be removed via the bottom
tunnel. This will prevent rock dust from one chamber contaminating
the fresh air supply of another chamber. Once construction is
completed, the bottom chamber to tunnel connection will be sealed. A
spiral ramp that surrounds each chamber and is used for access during
construction will then complete the ventilation loop between top and
bottom tunnels.
Each chamber will have a concrete liner. The inner surface of the
liner provides a smooth surface for the water tight plastic liner that
will separate the Cherenkov counter fill from the chamber walls. The
liner also provides additional mechanical stability for the
excavation. If necessary, drainage can be provided between the
concrete liner and the surrounding rock.
9.3 Construction Timetable and Cost
Marc Laurenti has worked out a detailed timetable and budget for the construction of these modules including initial rock evaluation coring, construction of both top and bottom access tunnels, removal of waste rock, maintenance of mining equipment, etc.
The excavation process consists of continuous repetition of three
separate tasks, (1) drilling and blasting of rock, (2) removal of the
rock rubble, and (3) installation of rock and cable bolts to stabilize
the freshly exposed rock walls. Each excavation cycle is about 10
weeks with 3 weeks for each of the above three steps. There is a
considerable cost savings in excavating three chambers at the same
time, with a three week phase shift between steps in each module.
This arrangement permits each of the three specialized crews to move
from one excavation to the next every three weeks or so and continue
using the same equipment and carry out their specialized tasks. In
contrast, using one crew to sequentially do three different tasks will
result in idle equipment for 2/3 of the time and inefficiency as they
switch from one task to another.
For the three module mode, the cost of excavating each chamber is
$14.7M. This includes $3.25M for the concrete liner and a 15%
contingency. In contrast, the cost of excavating a single module is
$16.9M including liner and contingency. The total required equipment
cost is the same for both of these construction modes.
Assuming three shifts/day and 5 days/week operation, it will take 208
weeks or 4 years to excavate each 3 module group. This time could be
reduced by going to a 6 or 7 day week. The Homestake Company
frequently operated on 6 or 7 day per week basis.
9.4 Rock Removal
Each 100 kiloton module (105 m3) involves the removal of about 416,000
tons of rock including access tunnels, domed roof, etc. For three
chambers this results in 1,248,000 tons of rock in 4 years or 312,000
tons of rock per year. Since the hoisting capacity of the Winze 6 -
Ross shaft system is 750,000 tons per year, the simultaneous
construction of three modules utilizes only 40% of the capacity of
this shaft system.
9.5 Equipment Cost
Since all mining equipment has now been removed, new mining equipment
will have to be purchased or leased. The required equipment, one Face
Drill, two LHD loaders, 2 Bolters, 2 Underground Support Vehicles, 2
Lift Trucks, 1 LH Drill and 2 ITH Drills, costs about $4.2M. It may
be possible to arrange for leases instead of purchasing these items.
Normal equipment maintenance has been included in the construction
cost. It is unclear whether the cost of this equipment should be
assigned to this specific task or should be part of the general
facility budget.
9.6 Choice of Depth and Depth Dependent Cost
There has been considerable discussion of depth necessary for very
large detectors and the costs associated with deep detector locations.
It is clear that the deeper the detector, the lower the cosmic ray
muon and associated particle background. It is always preferable to
have lower background. We can quantify the background limit by
specifying that there be less than one cosmic ray related event per
year within the megaton detector during the time that the accelerator
neutrino beam is on. If we assume the accelerator beam is on for one
microsecond per second, this requirement specifies an upper limit of
1.6 x 10-6 mu/m2/sec, essentially the cosmic ray flux at about
7000 ft depth. The effect of this specification is that every event
observed in the detector during the beam-on time is due to a neutrino
from the accelerator without any cuts whatsoever.
The question then is one of access and rock strength, namely, does a
specific facility have ready access to a deep location and is the
local rock structure capable of supporting large chambers. For
Homestake the answer to both of these questions is YES. The present
mine extends to 8000 ft, about 1000 ft deeper than the proposed
detector location, and the rock seems strong enough to readily permit
the excavation of large chambers.
In the appendix we provide a comparison of costs of building the
megaton Cherenkov detector at 6950 ft depth vs at the 4850 ft depth.
As indicated there, the maximum additional cost for putting the
megaton Cherenkov array at 6950 ft versus at 4850 ft is 5-6% of
excavation cost or less than 2% of total detector cost.
9.7 What Lessons About Depth Can be Learned from Previous Experience?
Detectors are located underground to reduce background in the detector
due to cosmic rays. The deeper the detector, the lower the cosmic ray
background. We have yet to have a detector that claimed to be "too
deep". The only issues are: (1) is there a substantial additional
cost associated with depth, and (2) are there technical limits
associated with rock strength, etc. that limit depth at a given
location? For many existing laboratories, depth is specified by what
is available at that facility. Only two locations, the Sudbury mine
(SNO), and the Homestake Mine (chlorine), have multiple levels available.
SNO chose to be at 6800 ft, essentially the same as the proposed
megaton detector. Since chlorine was the first underground neutrino
detector, there were no precedents and so it might be instructive to
review the sequence of events that led to its location.
In 1962, Ray Davis tested a small perchloroethylene detector in a
limestone mine in Barberton, Ohio at a depth of 2200 ft. The 37Ar
production was completely dominated by cosmic rays. That started a
search for a much deeper site. There were two possibilities in the
U.S., with Homestake the preferable one. At that time, in 1965, 4850
ft was the deepest level that the Company would agree to. At the time
the prediction for the solar neutrino signal was larger than now,
there was no thought about signal depression because of neutrino
flavor conversion and no one expected a final measurement with a 5%
statistical precision. By the early to mid-1970's it was already
clear to us that the cosmic ray induced background was too large,
given the observed signal, and that we needed a larger and deeper
detector. Unfortunately, at the time, the Company was not willing to
consider a deeper and larger detector.
The final result was that the cosmic ray induced signal is 10% of the
solar neutrino signal in the chlorine detector and the uncertainty in
that signal is the largest contributor to the systematic uncertainty.
The lesson is clear - locate detectors as deep as possible and be sure
that there is a roadmap to detector enlargement.
A detailed construction plan for the construction of three 100 kiloton
modules in four years at the 7000 ft depth in the Homestake Mine has
been developed. The total construction cost of these three modules is
about $44 M or $11M/year. In addition, there must be a one time
purchase of about $4.2 M worth of mechanized mining equipment. The
lead time in delivery of the mining equipment can be used to carry out
coring of the rock region in which the detector array is to be
constructed.
9.8 Comparison of Costs at 4850 ft versus 6950 ft
There are two depth dependent costs, the cost of hoisting rock and the
cost of rock and cable bolting. To estimate this effect, we determine
the difference in costs between identical chambers built at the 4850
ft level (the bottom level of the Ross shaft, the upper hoist system,
and the beginning of the Winze 6, the lower hoist system) and the 6950
ft level. The direct manpower costs for hoisting the extra 700 meters
in the Winze 6 are about $0.30/ton. The power costs add another
$0.20/ton for a total of $0.50/ton or $208,000 per 100 kiloton
module, where shaft maintenance costs have not been included.
The incremental rock support costs are more difficult to determine.
The cable bolting planned and budgeted for these modules is far
greater than required. This was done to insure that the chambers
would have a minimum 50 year occupancy. A similar approach to
corresponding excavations at the 4850 ft level might result in exactly
the same bolting pattern and thus the same cost. Another approach
would scale the bolting cost by the difference in rock stress between
the two levels. The rock stress in the Homestake and Poorman
formations, the formations that have been extensively studied in mine,
are rather surprising. The measured vertical stress Sv= 28.3 ×
D kPa, where D is the depth in meters, is exactly what is expected
for a fluid of density 2.9 (the rock density). The horizontal stress
is very direction dependent. Along the high stress axis Sh1 =
14,328 + 12.4 × D kPa, while along the low stress axis, Sh2
= 834 + 12 × D kPa. Presumably, the high horizontal stress
results from the rock folding that resulted in the upbringing of the
gold ore deposit to the surface and thus its discovery.
We assume that the effective stress at 6950 ft is about 35% greater than the corresponding
one at the 4850 ft level. Since the total cost of the cable and rock bolts is
$910,000 and the related labor, including benefits, is about the same,
we assign a depth dependent cost increase of $630,000 for rock support.
Combining this with the increase in hoisting costs gives a total of
$838,000 or 6% of the total construction cost.
Note that this is less than 2% of the complete detector cost.
However, there are three offsetting costs that reduce the cost of
constructing the Cherenkov detector array at 6950 ft vs. at 4850 ft.
The first of these is the water fill. The total water fill for the
megaton detector is 250 million gallons. Removing that much water
from the local streams would be quite significant, especially given
the present drought conditions in the area. Instead, we plan to use
the water that is being pumped from the bottom of the mine at the 8000
ft level. This water will be purified to remove any light scattering
or absorbing material and any radioactive contaminants. Since the
mine now pumps out about 350 gallons per minute, we will require about
1.4 years worth of water distributed over the construction time of the
entire detector. For a detector at the 6950 ft level, this water is
only pumped up 1000 ft while for a detector at 4850 ft, the water must
be pumped up about 3100 ft. The cost savings here is about 1/4 of
the increase in rock hoist cost or about $50,000.
The second offsetting cost is that of cooling the Cherenkov detector.
Operating the detector at 10oC gives 1/4 the photomultiplier
noise of operation at 20oC. Since the rock temperature at the 4850
ft level is over 35oC and still higher at 6950 ft, cooling will be
necessary at either depth. The mine has an enormous refrigeration
plant (2400 ton capacity) at the 6950 ft level, with a fairly short
path for the coolant from the refrigeration plant to the detector. A
detector at the 4850 ft level will either require a new refrigeration
plant at that level or the installation of 2000 ft of vertical coolant
piping in the mine shaft. We have not estimated the cost of either of
these steps, but they are clearly very substantial.
The third offsetting cost is that the level structure at 4850 ft does not readily lend
itself to the construction and ventilation system described above.
If the upper detector access is at 4850 ft then the lower, rock
removal tunnel is at 5000 ft. Unfortunately, there is no ventilation
exhaust system at that level and waste rock would have to be raised
in order to get it into the hoist system. The alternate approach,
putting the top access at 4700 ft, would require additional excavation
in order to provide the necessary tunnels for the upper access.
The material in this section was assembled and compiled by Kenneth
Lande based on work done by a number of senior mining engineers who
previously were in charge of mining operations at the Homestake Mine.
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HEVEA.