FXUS04 KWBC 050634 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 233 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID OCT 05/1200 UTC THRU OCT 06/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...PRELIM DAY 1... ...SYNOPSIS... MDLS ARE SHOWG SOME PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPR LVL PTRN ACRS NOAM THIS PD...WHILE CONTG THE SRN STREAM THAT UNDERCUTS THE WRN U.S. RDG AND MERGES WITH THE ERN U.S. TROF. A CDFNT DROPG THRU THE ERN U.S. THIS MRNG WL MOV OFF THE ECST...WHILE HANGG BACK ACRS THE GULF CST STS INTO THE ROCKIES. A PAC FNT WL MOV INTO THE PAC NW WITH INCRSG WAA AHD OF THE SYS THAT SHLD SPRD PCPN ACRS THE REGION LATER TDA/TNGT. ...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HI PLNS... MDLS/WV SATL IMAGERY SHOW SERIES OF SHRTWVS THAT WL COMBINE TO BRING A DECENT MIDLVL TROF INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PD. A CDFNT LYG ACRS TX INTO THE SRN ROCKIES WL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LIFT AS DEEP MSTR CONTS TO ADVECT UP THE RIO GRANDE VLY INTO THE REGION. ALTHO MDLS ARE GNRLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE GFS IS SHOWG FEEDBACK SIGNATURES WHICH RESULTS IN HVIER PCPN INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS DUE TO STGR LOLVL WAA. HAV PLAYED DOWN THE HVIER GFS AMTS INTO THE OK PHNDL REGION...WHILE INCRSG AMTS INTO FAR WRN TX/SERN NM. AS THE MIDLVL TROF APRCHS THE MDLS SHOW A STG INCRS IN UPR LVL DIFL AND DVRG AS AN UPR JET COUPLET FORMS AND SUPPORTS INCRSG DEEP LYRD LIFT ACRS THE REGION. SOME HEATG IS XPCD OVR SCNTRL NM INTO WRN TX THIS AFTN THAT SHLD SUPPORT STGR CNVCTN THRU THIS REGION. OVRALL XPCT A BROAD AREA OF LGT/MOD RNFL WITH TWO POCKETS OF HVIER RNFL. THE FIRST WITH THE STGR UPR LVL DYNAMICS OVR NERN NM. A SCND AREA SHLD BE OVR WRN TX WHERE THE BETTER SFC BASED INSTBLTY WL EXIST ALNG WITH DEEP MSTR. SOME 1-2 INCH AMTS ARE PSBL IN THESE AREAS. ...PAC NW... A STG GULF OF AK SHRTWV TROF MOVG TWD THE REGION WL INCRSG SWRLY FLOW WITH DEEP PAC MSTR XPCD TO GET TAPPED AND PUSHED INTO THE REGION. MDLS SHOW PWS AOA 1.25 INCHES MOVG INTO THE CSTL AREAS OF WA/OR LATER TDA AND ESPCLY TNGT. LOLVL WAA DVLPG AHD OF THE SFC FNTL BNDRY WL MOV ASHORE THIS EVE AND COMBINE WITH THE INCRSG ONSHORE FLOW AND MIDLVL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF LGT/MOD PCPN. ISOLD HVY AMTS ARE PSBL IN THE OLYMPICS WHERE UPSLOPE WL BE MAXIMIZED AND MORE PERSISTENT. ...FL... SEA BREEZE CVRG WL SUPPORT ANOTHER AFTN OF SCT CNVTN WITH ISOLD MOD/HVY RNS OVR CNTRL FL THIS AFTN. ECKERT GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 06/12Z 0.01 521270 523261 523251 522245 523237 525228 528223 532217 533215 535210 537201 536187 534179 531173 528168 524163 517157 507151 496159 485156 483154 477151 473150 465145 461148 461155 464161 464165 464170 466173 469175 476178 479182 482187 484192 484196 478199 470201 466204 460203 453210 447212 444212 440214 435217 431220 427220 424221 423225 426231 422234 417235 415239 417244 420249 418257 418261 419265 422268 427271 436267 446283 454286 464284 475282 486283 490285 495288 499291 503292 511289 515286 516282 0.01 450109 452102 450094 444093 439093 434093 432091 427088 424088 424096 421100 417102 409092 405093 404096 400101 398101 396099 398094 400088 402084 409078 413076 414071 414063 412061 412058 416051 418045 418039 416022 420014 421006 419001 416999 413998 406998 403995 400990 397986 393983 388980 370975 362971 353968 345967 335969 331966 329963 323954 316946 313943 313934 314925 310916 305908 300901 297898 295893 291891 288891 285895 286902 288914 287924 285933 285945 283953 279960 275963 272965 259966 254968 248971 246973 247979 253982 264994 269000 272003 273009 275016 275023 276029 279034 284040 291043 297060 303068 306072 309078 310082 312085 314087 319088 321087 324085 324081 328081 333088 336089 338088 342085 347084 352086 357089 360090 363096 363101 363105 365109 367114 364118 362121 364124 370130 372133 376135 379130 381126 390120 400119 409122 414122 420122 424119 427115 432112 435112 444113 450109 0.01 452080 451076 450074 449072 447071 444069 442068 441068 440068 439069 436069 434072 436075 439075 441075 442076 444079 447080 450081 452080 0.01 297819 293811 287803 281799 272796 263798 258799 253803 251806 252811 254814 256819 260824 267828 274831 277833 282831 293827 296823 297819 0.01 326075 327072 324070 324072 324075 324076 326075 0.25 515276 518268 519258 518249 517242 512229 507216 503211 500208 496205 493203 486202 476206 472208 467210 457215 455215 453217 450218 445219 442218 441219 442221 444223 446225 449225 451224 453224 455225 455229 453231 450232 445232 441233 437238 434242 433243 434248 438251 443254 446257 449261 453265 459268 470270 481273 491275 497278 501281 506284 510283 515276 0.25 516190 512183 506178 503176 500173 493167 487163 483163 481164 481168 483173 486180 489183 491185 497185 503187 511192 514192 516190 0.25 394020 393011 390004 384997 378993 372991 363991 355991 346993 341995 335998 330002 323003 317003 310003 300005 292007 287012 285021 285032 290042 297051 306055 316057 326058 331059 336059 340060 342062 345065 347066 350066 353067 353069 352072 352077 355077 358073 363073 368074 371078 371083 373089 374093 375099 379099 380095 380090 381087 383088 385093 388091 388087 386082 384079 387077 387073 385073 383070 383068 381066 379064 377064 374062 371061 370058 374055 379056 382057 382050 381043 385036 388032 391027 394020 0.25 286814 285813 284811 282810 280809 278808 277808 275807 273806 272806 268805 267805 266805 264807 264809 267811 268811 271812 273813 274813 277814 280815 282815 283816 286814 286814 0.50 516267 517259 517254 514242 512236 509231 503220 498211 495209 492209 485209 477210 473213 471215 473217 478218 483220 486221 489224 490229 491234 489234 481235 480232 477230 472232 467235 464234 455235 453237 451237 449236 448237 448239 450240 453239 455239 459241 463245 467249 472256 476261 482265 493272 501277 507280 511277 515271 516267 0.50 361001 352003 342007 335009 328009 322009 315009 305010 298011 294015 291019 289027 291034 296041 302046 307048 310049 316049 321049 326049 330048 333049 337051 340053 343055 346057 350057 354058 356062 357068 359070 362069 363066 368066 371069 374072 377068 375064 371062 367061 363060 362058 366056 370054 372048 374040 375031 376024 379019 383016 383009 380003 374001 367001 361001 1.00 513266 514262 513257 512251 510245 508238 502229 499224 496219 494219 492222 493228 496237 499241 501245 500250 498250 496248 492243 489241 486239 485240 485242 483244 481244 478243 477248 479253 482258 486262 495268 503271 508269 513266 1.00 346025 344028 345033 349036 355040 359045 364045 365038 364031 360026 354024 348025 346025 1.00 304028 313031 318037 319042 313043 308042 302038 297034 297029 300027 304028 $$