Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 01/13/09

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
830 AM PST SUN JAN 11 2009 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WARM...DRY WEATHER AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ABOUT 11 MBS OFFSHORE BETWEEN KTPH AND KSAN BUT HAVE WEAKENED TO AROUND 1 MB OFFSHORE BETWEEN KIPL AND KSAN. MDCRS DATA STILL SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ABOVE 3000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST REMAINS INPLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AFTER NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AFTER NEXT SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN...CONTINUED HIGH AND DRY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL. WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN BUMP UP IN WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY SO WILL KEEP THE HWW AND WADS IN PLACE THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF A WAD REPLACES THE HWW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION... 111630Z...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING STRONGEST THROUGH/BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH 21Z OR SO. WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS DO NOT SURFACE LLWS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT...INCLUDING THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A BRIEF SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED JUST UNDERNEATH THE PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS THAN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH UNLIMITED VIS...EXCEPT FOR VERY LOCAL BLOWING DUST WHICH COULD LOWER SFC VIS TO UNDER 2 MILES. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE STRONG UP AND DOWNDRAFTS OVER AND NEAR THE MTNS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST MONDAY FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MARTIN AVIATION/MARINE...PG NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1110 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THIS IS A SECOND UPDATE TO CANCEL THE REMAINING WARNINGS FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES...SARATOGA REGION...AND SRN VT. WE ALSO CANCELED THE ADVISORY FOR NRN WASHINGTON CO. SOME SCT FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. THE MSAS DATA SHOWS 3-4 HPA/3 HR PRESSURE RISES OVER CNTRL NY/PA WITH A 1020 HPA HIGH BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP WITH SOME CLEARING WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH. WE TRENDED THE SKY COVER TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO U20S TO NEAR 30. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE LOWER VISIBILITIES AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEICING AIRCRAFT AND SNOW REMOVAL PER PHONE CALL TO AIRPORT OPERATIONS. THE VISIBILITIES SHOULD COME SOON. SOME SCT FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THERE...AND AT THE NWS/CESTM. PLEASE SEE OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FROM 309 AM... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WILL MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z ASSOC WITH THE TROF PASSAGE. IN WAKE OF THE TROF MON MORNING...SOME LAKE RESPONSE WILL BE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY CLASS ONLY CONDITIONAL...HOWEVER INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING TO AROUND 800 MB...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. INITIALLY THE TRAJECTORY FAVORS THE MOHAWK VALLEY MON MORNING...SHIFTING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MON AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BUT WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1-2". && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE NIGHT STARTS WITH FEW CLOUDS...AND WITH FRESH SNOW...INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES REGION WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMS. TUESDAY CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN GRTLKS AS SEVERAL 500HPA SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF FM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF OF MEX. AS SFC LOW DEEPENS ARCTIC AIR SURGES DOWN ON ITS WEST SIDE. WHILE THIS SFC LOW TAKES A RATHER UNUSUAL TRACK FOR A CLIPPER...UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS COLD...NO PTYPE ISSUES....ALL SNOW. IT APPEARS TO TAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH A FEW INCHES...AS WELL AS SQUALLS WITH CFP TUES EVENING. IN ITS WAKE TUES NIGHT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO REGION. ALSO A VERY STRONG 500HPA SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION...ENHANCING THE SNOW...AND THE BURST OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE CAA WITH THE ARCTIC SURGE. THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SFC HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SITTING JUST NORTH OF REGION OVER ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ITS SFC CLIPPER LOW RACES EAST WEDNESDAY FROM THE WESTERN GRTLKS...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLIDE. BY WEDNESDAY WINDS AND TEMPS WILL RAISE POTENTIAL TO REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA. GIVEN THE TIMING QUESTIONS RAISED BY HPC WITH THE NAM OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...FOR NOW THE FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY TWRD A GFS/GMOS SOLUTION. GRIDS A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST...GMOS...MAV/MEX GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE EFP FEATURES MORE OF THE SAME PARADE OF CLIPPER LOWS. THE FIRST WED NIGHT INTO THU LOOKS THE MOST POTENT AT THIS POINT...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER. 1000-500DM THICKNESS VALUES DROP BLO 500DM ACROSS THE REGION AND BLO 490 IN THE NORTHERN TIER. TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL FALL WELL BLO ZERO F. BY FRIDAY A MASSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE MOST RECENT ARCTIC CORE IS LIFTING AWAY...AN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAA COMPONENT WILL ENHANCE CLOUDS...RAISE THE THREAT OF -SHSN...AND ENHANCE WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT IS OCCURRING. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW RACES EAST TO OUR SOUTH. ITS A FRIGID TO VERY COLD PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF -SHSN OR LIGHT SNOW. WE`RE IN THE DEEP NIGHT OF WINTER...AND WE WILL KNOW IT. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN NY TERMINALS...WITH PREVAILING IFR VSBY BUT CEILINGS RISING INTO MVFR RANGE AT KGFL/KPOU. ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW RIGHT OVER KALB...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 13Z-15Z...AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE STEADY SNOW ENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AT LEAST TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR UNTIL 14Z. THEN JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO BREAK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A TROF APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 5-10 KT...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK.... MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC TO CHC SNOW SHOWERS. TUE...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN. WED...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SHSN. WINDY. THU...MVFR/IFR...CHC -SN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGY RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH FRIGID WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. RIVER ICE WILL THICKEN RAPIDLY IN SOME AREAS. RIVER STAGES/FLOWS MAY START TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO ICE EFFECTS. THE SNOWPACK...WHICH COVERS OUR ENTIRE AREA...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN WATER CONTENT. OUR INITIAL 08-09 WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING. FOR DETAILS SEE ALBESFALY. FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...SNYDER HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1236 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2009 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW FROM SW CANADA TO THE CNTRL CONUS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING E INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS SPREADING PCPN OVER THE SRN AND ERN LAKES REGION. UPSTREAM...PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WERE OVER ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SOME -SN IS OCCURRING WITH THESE FEATURES OVER ND INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. CLOSER TO HOME...LIGHT/VERY DISORGANIZED LES CONTINUES TO AFFECT NW UPPER MI AND AREAS E OF MUNISING. MORNING TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW SHOWED 850MB TEMP AROUND -15C...BUT UPSTREAM...TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM CYQT INDICATED 850MB TEMP OF -12C WHILE AT KINL...12Z SOUNDING SHOWED -11C AT 850MB. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUN AFTN)... UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WILL REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS THEY APPROACH...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK A LITTLE MORE...ENOUGH TO PUSH LINGERING LIGHT LES/FLURRIES OFFSHORE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING. OVER NW UPPER MI...FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH WRLY COMPONENT THAT LES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...THE WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS TO THE W MENTIONED ABOVE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING AN END TO LES BEFORE WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT (IT WILL BE STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING). AFTN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO LES PROGRESSING E ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT LES MAY END FOR A WHILE OVER THE KEWEENAW. FOR NOW...KEPT LOW CHC POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE KEWEENAW BEFORE INCREASING POPS SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE PULLED FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. LIGHT/CALM WINDS THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BLO LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT MINS OF 0 TO -5F OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W HALF. AS SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES MON...FORCING AND MOISTURE DON`T COINCIDE WELL AS FORCING EXITS BEFORE LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN. SO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. SEE NO REASON TO GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG SFC TROF/WIND SHIFT WILL AFFECT THE KEWEENAW MOST DIRECTLY. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...THOUGH THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE MORE IF CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SLOW MOVING. TO THE E...THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN OR REMAIN OFFSHORE. OVERALL MULTI-MODEL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR A SLOWER TROF...SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OFFSHORE THRU THE AFTN OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)... ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. COLD WAVE WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. GETTING TO THAT POINT IN THE FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED. MAIN CONCERN UNTIL THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES IS EXTENT OF SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LOW-AMPLITUDE WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT OVR UPR LAKES. AT THE SURFACE... PREFERRED NAM/ECMWF SHOWED TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH ON SUNDAY STALLS OUT OVR SOUTHERN LK SUPERIOR. WRLY FLOW LK EFFECT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FOR KEWEENAW INTO FAR NE CWA ALONG LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MUNISING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF SUNDAY SYSTEM LEAD TO INVERSIONS OFF THE NAM AT CMX THROUGH THE NIGHT ONLY UP TO 4KFT. SO DESPITE MAX OMEGA WITHIN BEST SNOW GROWTH LAYER...NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL HOLD DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS TO A FEW INCHES. ARCTIC FRONT COMES IN LATE MONDAY BUT FIRST...ATTN IS ON SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO MN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS WI ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF CWA...ROUGHLY FM SW MN TO SE WI BY LATE MONDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...H85 LOW TRACK/STRIPE OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SYSTEM SNOW TO MUCH OF UPR MI BY AFTN. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE. ADVY AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE E CWA IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. SNOW WILL ONLY BE ENHANCED FURTHER CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR BY MONDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES IN FULL FORCE WITH WINDS BECOMING NRLY AND GUSTY. SOUNDINGS FM BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW FOR A TIME AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. NOT SURE HOW LONG THE HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTS BUT THE EXPECTED SFC PATTERN WOULD POINT TO THE HEAVIER SNOW LINGERING OVR THE FAR WEST AND NCNTRL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. SO...DUE TO THE SYSTEM SNOW FM THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE WORSENING CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO THE COLD AIR RUSHING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MODELS YDY BACKED AWAY FM THE EXTENT OF THE COLD BUT THEY TRENDED A BIT COLDER NOW. EITHER WAY...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TOWARD 10 BLO IN THE WRN INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FM THE LOW EXITING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE OVR MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO ADVY LEVEL WIND CHILLS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BUT LOWERING INVERSIONS AND TEMPS FALLING WELL BLO THE IDEAL MARK FOR GENERATING DENDRITES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY LIGHT ACCUMS. MAIN ASPECT OF THE LK EFFECT WILL BE LOW VSBY DUE TO THE SMALL FINE SNOWFLAKES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH ON WED. AT THIS POINT THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY TOO FAR TO AFFECT CWA. THAT IS ALSO HOW THIS LOW FOR MONDAY LOOKED YDY. SO...THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS IN AWAY FM THE LK EFFECT AREAS. SLIGHT MODERATION POSSIBLE IN TEMPS...MAY REACH ZERO IN THE WRN CWA...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY. AFTER THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FM THE REGION...PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1050 MB SLIDES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND TO THE SE UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. UPR LAKES REMAIN IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NE EDGE OF THE HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD SO THIS IS LIKELY WHEN THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS OF THE COLD WAVE OCCUR...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 40 BLO ZERO. WILL RE-ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCOMING COLD. TEMPS MODERATE NOTICEABLY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF INCOMING TROUGH. WENT TOWARD COLDEST GUIDANCE THOUGH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HAVE HARD TIME SEEING DENSE COLD AIR BEING SCOURED OUT SO SOON AFTER THE COLD SNAP. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)... A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MN WILL RESULT IN WSW LOW LEVEL ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...KEEPING LES NORTH AND WEST OF KCMX. SO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DETERIORATE TO BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT W AND THEN NW...BRINGING A RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT KSAW...DRY AIR AND A WESTERLY WIND FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A STRONG INVERSION PRESENT AT SAW...NOTED BY THE COLD TEMPS...APPEARS TO BE TRAPPING SMOKE PRODUCED BY HOMES. LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS ARE A RESULT FROM THIS SMOKE. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE SMOKE UNTIL 09Z...WHICH IS WHEN HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN SHOULD HELP MIX THE INVERSION A BIT...RELEASING ANY SMOKE. AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS VEER NW...EXPECT CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A FEW FLURRIES. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE FCST PERIOD STILL LOOK TO OCCUR MON AFTN/NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...WITH FREQUENT N TO NW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SOLID GALE EVENT GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DEVELOP MON AFTN/NIGHT UNDER INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR/GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES. EXTENDED PERIOD OF ARCTIC AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RIGHT THRU THU. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...JLB/AJ MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SAT JAN 10 2009 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL THEN LINGER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING DRY AND MILD WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IS FALLING ACROSS MOST OF WRN WA THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP AND OBS INDICATE THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL IS OCCURING ALONG THE COAST/N INTERIOR AND ALSO ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW. PRECIP IS FALLING AS SNOW DOWN TO ROUGHLY 3000 FEET IN THE CASCADES WITH STEVENS PASS RECEIVING 5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR. MODELS INSIST ON BRINGING SOME WARMER AIR IN AT 850 MB INTO THE CASCADES AFTER 06Z-09Z...SO SNOW SHOULD GO TO RAIN IN THE PASSES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH THE SWITCH OVER TO RAIN IN SOME OF THE PASSES EXPECTED TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL CASCADES AS WELL AND PUSH BACK A TAD. MM5 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS RUN ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE WEST SLOPES BUT SOME OF THIS WILL HAVE FALLEN AS SNOW. HYDRO MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IMPACT FOR THIS NEW RAIN ON THE MAINSTEM RIVER BASINS. HOWEVER IT MAY SLOW THE RECESSION OF RESIDUAL FLOOD WATERS THAT ALREADY COVER LOW LYING AREAS. IT WILL ALSO PLACE FURTHER DEMAND FOR HIGH RELEASES FROM DAMS ON THE WHITE AND POSSIBLY GREEN RIVERS...AND IT WILL RENEW THE THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GREEN RIVER REMAINS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH FLOW RELEASES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NWLY BUT STILL MOIST WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONG ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO FINALLY SHUNT THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY FOR A PERIOD OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. MERCER .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE STRONG AND AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE RIGHT OVER WRN WA ON WED...EXPAND INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY...THEN STICK AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRESENCE OF THIS DOMINANT FEATURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MILD AND DRY FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE QUICK INTRODUCTION OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT ON WED AND THU (850 MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 15C ON THU) WILL LEAD TO VERY STABLE CONDITIONS. AM COUNTING ON ADEQUATE OFFSHORE FLOW TO WARM LOWLAND TEMPS CLOSE TO 50 DURING THE DAY (MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST) AND LIMIT LOWLAND FOG TO THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...NIGHTS WILL BE COOL AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY. HANER && .AVIATION...RAIN ENCOMPASSING MOST OF W WA THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT PASSED THROUGH...WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION. MAY EXPERIENCE MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. CENTRAL SOUND STILL SEEING LESS RAINFALL WITH SHADOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS...HOWEVER CIGS ARE STILL IN THE MVFR TO IFR CAT. RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW WLY WINDS ALOFT AROUND 40 KT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY WITH PRECIP SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND RAIN DIMINISHING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE CASCADES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR VCSH IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON AS PRES GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WITH WAA ACROSS THE REGION. KSEA...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH RAIN DIMINISHING...PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY SUN AROUND 12Z. MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT TIMES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN ON SUN WITH INCREASING WAA. THUS LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. 33 && .MARINE...LOW PRES TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL AND E WA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES OVER COASTAL ORE. PRES GRADIENTS ACROSS W WA REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT. WINDS WILL EASE ON SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS NORTH INTO WA. HOWEVER...WITH HIGHER SEAS WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS SWELLS REMAIN OVER 10 FT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BY MIDWEEK. 33 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...VARIOUS FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GREEN RIVER IN KING COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES THROUGH 1 AM SUNDAY. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL STRAIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR. $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE FOR THE ENHANCED AFD PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PST MON JAN 12 2009 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WARM DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...OFFSHORE FLOW...OF VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY MODERATE STRENGTH...WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WITH A VERY GRADUAL AND SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... LOCAL STRONG GUSTS CONTINUED THIS EVENING...INCLUDING 62 MPH AROUND 6 PM AT FREMONT CANYON AND 58 MPH AT THE ANGELUS HILL RAWS NEAR BANNING PASS AROUND 8 PM. SUPPORT CONTINUES AT/BELOW 850 MB FOR HIGH WINDS...BOTH IN THE ACARS SOUNDINGS AND MODELS...SO LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS EARLY TUE MORNING BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND IN A FEW OTHER MTN LOCATIONS. THUS...WE EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE MTNS THROUGH 1 PM TUE...THOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE TAPERED BACK FROM 60 TO 35-40 MPH A FEW HOURS BEFORE THAT. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL ZONE AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS DUE TO LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THERE. NO REAL PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE WEST COAST TO CONTINUE...THOUGH WEAKENING SLIGHTLY FROM ITS CURRENT SUMMER-LIKE APPEARANCE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TUE THROUGH THU BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN COASTAL AREAS AND BRING SOME COOLING THERE TUE/WED...THOUGH MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT AS WARM...WITH SOME MTN CRESTS/EAST SLOPES WARMING SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS DECREASE. STEREOTYPICAL SO-CAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS THE BLOCKING HIGH WILL STEER THE STORM TRACK FAR FROM OUR AREA...FROM WESTERN CANADA SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. THE MARINE LAYER IS NOT LIKELY TO BE FACTOR FOR AWHILE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE HIGH DOES SHOW SIGNS OF MORE WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH...AND THAT WILL BRING TEMPS SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION... 130400Z...MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHEAST WINDS 25-35 KT BELOW FL130 CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15KT OR LESS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ST TIMES OVER AIRPORTS EXCEPT WHEN THE NE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE STRONG UP AND DOWN DRAFTS OVER AND TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS WILL PREVAIL. CEILING AND VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN UNLIMITED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 1 PM TUE FOR THE MTNS AND INLAND EMPIRE...SEE LAXNPWSGX. WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM TUE FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SEE LAXNPWSGX. && $$ PUBLIC...MAXWELL AVIATION...PG
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
912 PM PST MON JAN 12 2009 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .UPDATE...SOME AREAS ARE SEEING SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. LAGUNA PEAK OBSERVATIONS STARTED ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LAST HOUR OBSERVATION REPORTED A GUST TO 85 MPH. WINDS ARE LIKELY PEAKING CURRENTLY...THEN WILL DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. KLAX-KDAG GRADIENTS HAVE NOW DROPPED TO -7.2 MB FROM -8.2 MB EARLIER. LATEST NAM-WRF AND 13-KM RUC SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING STRONG FOR THE NEXT ONE TO THREE HOURS...THEN STARTING TO DIMINISH. WINDS THEN PICKUP BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM TUESDAY. 950 MB AND 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS SEEMS TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAKENING LATE THIS EVENING...THEN THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. NAM-WRF AND GFS ALSO INDICATES AN INCREASING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR 4 AM TUESDAY...AND THESE SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE UNDERDONE ONCE AGAIN. IN ADDITION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE PUSHING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BASED LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION...THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WOULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM TUESDAY. WITH THE DATA ON HAND...THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT TO INCREASE WINDS ONCE AGAIN SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. NAM-WRF 950 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INITIALIZED SUPERBLY FOR THIS EVENINGS RUN. ACARS SOUNDING FROM KLAX INDICATE 950 MB TEMPERATURES AT +24 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND NAM-WRF 950 MB TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATING SOME COOLING FOR TUESDAY. CURRENT PACKAGE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY SEEM IN-LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM-WRF 950 MB TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WARMING COULD OCCUR FOR TUESDAY IF THE WINDS DROP OFF MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE CURRENT THINKING. IN THE UNLIKELIHOOD STRONG WINDS DO NOT REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...THE AREA COULD SET ITSELF UP FOR EQUALLY WARM OR POSSIBLY WARMER TUESDAY AS THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS THOROUGHLY MIXED. WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO PICK UP AGAIN FOR LATE WEEK. SURFACE GRADIENTS TREND LIGHT TO MODERATELY ONSHORE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING AT THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO AN IMPROVED SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARM AS A STRONG AND DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS INCREASING FOR LATE WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PST MON JAN 12 2009/ SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TODAY...SHOWING WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH WITH A FEW LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT -8.2 MB THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL CURRENTLY -7.7 MB WHICH IS QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. ALONG WITH THIS STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENABLE SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WHICH COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON. AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS RELAX...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING WINDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS. 12Z AND 18Z WRF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAMPING UP OFFSHORE WINDS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO THE SOUTHLAND ONCE AGAIN...WITH MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS REPORTING HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE ACTUALLY REPORTED THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL DURING SANTA ANA WIND EVENTS. AS OF 2 PM...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES HAS ALREADY REPORTED A HIGH OF 86 DEGREES...WHILE TORRANCE AND LEO CARILLO BEACH (IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS) ARE CURRENTLY AT 87 DEGREES. WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO TIE OR EVEN BREAK RECORDS TODAY...WITH SIMILAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 70 DEGREES. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...THERE ARE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES IN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS REACHING CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF OFFSHORE WINDS. LONG TERM... UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ALSO TRY TO CUT SOME SORT OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH. WHILE THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CERTAINTY THAT WARM OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF OFFSHORE WINDS INTENSIFYING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...13/0510Z. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ALL TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED AT KVNY AND KBUR...WITH A CHANCE OF TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOXR. KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO WIND ISSUES. KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX). RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX). WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX). && $$ HALL/GOMBERG WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
834 PM PST MON JAN 12 2009 .UPDATE...SOME AREAS ARE SEEING SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING. LAGUNA PEAK OBSERVATIONS STARTED ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LAST HOUR OBSERVATION REPORTED A GUST TO 85 MPH. WINDS ARE LIKELY PEAKING CURRENTLY...THEN WILL DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. KLAX-KDAG GRADIENTS HAVE NOW DROPPED TO -7.2 MB FROM -8.2 MB EARLIER. LATEST NAM-WRF AND 13-KM RUC SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING STRONG FOR THE NEXT ONE TO THREE HOURS...THEN STARTING TO DIMINISH. WINDS THEN PICKUP BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM TUESDAY. 950 MB AND 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS SEEMS TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAKENING LATE THIS EVENING...THEN THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. NAM-WRF AND GFS ALSO INDICATES AN INCREASING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FOR 4 AM TUESDAY...AND THESE SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE UNDERDONE ONCE AGAIN. IN ADDITION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE PUSHING SOUTH FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BASED LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION...THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WOULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM TUESDAY. WITH THE DATA ON HAND...THE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT TO INCREASE WINDS ONCE AGAIN SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. NAM-WRF 950 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INITIALIZED SUPERBLY FOR THIS EVENINGS RUN. ACARS SOUNDING FROM KLAX INDICATE 950 MB TEMPERATURES AT +24 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND NAM-WRF 950 MB TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATING SOME COOLING FOR TUESDAY. CURRENT PACKAGE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY SEEM IN-LINE WITH THE LATEST NAM-WRF 950 MB TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WARMING COULD OCCUR FOR TUESDAY IF THE WINDS DROP OFF MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE CURRENT THINKING. IN THE UNLIKELIHOOD STRONG WINDS DO NOT REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...THE AREA COULD SET ITSELF UP FOR EQUALLY WARM OR POSSIBLY WARMER TUESDAY AS THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS THOROUGHLY MIXED. WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN START TO PICK UP AGAIN FOR LATE WEEK. SURFACE GRADIENTS TREND LIGHT TO MODERATELY ONSHORE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING AT THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO AN IMPROVED SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...THE INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARM AS A STRONG AND DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS INCREASING FOR LATE WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PST MON JAN 12 2009/ SHORT TERM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TODAY...SHOWING WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH WITH A FEW LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT PEAKED AT -8.2 MB THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL CURRENTLY -7.7 MB WHICH IS QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. ALONG WITH THIS STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENABLE SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WHICH COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON. AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS RELAX...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING WINDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS. 12Z AND 18Z WRF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RAMPING UP OFFSHORE WINDS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO THE SOUTHLAND ONCE AGAIN...WITH MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS REPORTING HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE ACTUALLY REPORTED THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL DURING SANTA ANA WIND EVENTS. AS OF 2 PM...DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES HAS ALREADY REPORTED A HIGH OF 86 DEGREES...WHILE TORRANCE AND LEO CARILLO BEACH (IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS) ARE CURRENTLY AT 87 DEGREES. WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO TIE OR EVEN BREAK RECORDS TODAY...WITH SIMILAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 70 DEGREES. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...THERE ARE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES IN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS REACHING CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF OFFSHORE WINDS. LONG TERM... UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ALSO TRY TO CUT SOME SORT OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH. WHILE THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CERTAINTY THAT WARM OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF OFFSHORE WINDS INTENSIFYING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...12/0038Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED AT KVNY AND KBUR...WITH A CHANCE OF TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOXR. KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO WIND ISSUES. KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WIND ISSUES MAY DISSIPATE AFTER 11Z TONIGHT. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX). RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX). WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX). && $$ HALL/GOMBERG WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
940 PM PST MON JAN 12 2009 .SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. AIR QUALITY WILL BE AFFECTED BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS. && .SHORT TERM...NOTHING NEW IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. WHAT FEW HOLES THERE WERE IN THE OVERCAST AROUND 00Z HAVE FILLED IN AT 05Z. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 850 MB ALSO REMAIN LIGHT. WITHOUT ANY MIXING THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IS GOING NOWHERE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME CHANGES START TO TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCREASING THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALSO START TO WARM UP WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES GOING FROM PLUS 6C AT 00Z WED TO PLUS 12 TO 14C BY 00Z THU. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER THINNING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT ON THURSDAY. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THAT AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM UP THE INVERSION OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL STRENGTHEN. THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE DOES INCREASE BUT MOST OF THE GRADIENT IS NEAR THE CASCADES. WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT. WITH THE STRONGER INVERSIONS AND LITTLE MIXING AT THE LOWER LEVELS IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET RID OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND AT THIS POINT THIS LOOKS GOOD. THE BEST PLACE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE UP IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECASTS THIS EVENING. FELTON .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. A VERY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM FLATTENS THE RIDGE JUST A BIT OVER B.C. AND ALTA ON FRIDAY BUT THAT SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON WRN WA WEATHER EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS. AT THE SURFACE THE GFS SHOWS A 1032MB HIGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA SE TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND FURTHER SE TO SW WYOMING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES REMAINS IN PLACE THRU SATURDAY. THAT GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND A WARM SUNNY PERIOD FOR WESTERN WA. THE UW WRFGFS EXTENSION HOWEVER GIVES ME PAUSE...I DO NOT SEE VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN WA IN THE EXTENDED...MAYBE SEA-EAT AVERAGES -5MB. AND THE PUDDLES OF COOL AIR (LOOKING AT THE MSLP AND 925MB TEMPS) ARE REALLY ONLY UP IN B.C. AND DOWN OVER SE IDAHO. MAYBE MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON SUN WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IS A GOOD FCST BUT YOU DO WONDER IF FOG WILL SET UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND THEN JUST PERSIST THU-SAT. ONE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE AREA FROM TACOMA DOWN TO OLYMPIA AND SOME AREAS NEAR THE SOUND AND THRU THE SW INTERIOR WILL FOG IN WED NITE AND THEN STAY IN FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A LITTLE EASTERLY THRU THE CASCADE GAPS MAY ALLOW THE MORNING FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND SEATTLE WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR KSEA THAN FOR KOLM. DRAWING THIS INTO THE GRIDS MAY TAKE A FEW SHIFTS. 19 && .AVIATION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WA. MOISTURE REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH LIGHT ONSHORE SFC FLOW. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND KUIL RAOB SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UPWARDS TO 3500-4000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWER VIS IN BR AND FOG. WILL BE EXTREMELY TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT TUE...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. KSEA...NO IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS OR VIS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND WITH LITTLE MIXING AND WEAK WINDS WILL SEE LOWER VIS IN BR OR FOG PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 33 && .MARINE...A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS W WA. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON TUE WITH WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 33 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CEDAR RIVER IN KING COUNTY. PZ...NONE. $$ FOR THE ENHANCED AFD PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML (ALL LOWERCASE)
TIME. REST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET CHILLY IN THE VALLEYS THAT HAVE BEEN CLOUDY AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS. FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS MORE PRONE TO IT SUCH AS CACHE AND HEBER AND ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS. PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY STATE WED THRU FRI WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A LID ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS AND INVERSIONS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED. EC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF TOPPING THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK WILL CARVE WESTWARD AND FORM A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER SRN UT SAT AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT WEST TO NORTHERN CA BY MON AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE THEN DRIFTS BACK EAST THRU THE GREAT BASIN TUE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE GFS ALSO BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHO IT DOES NOT GET THERE QUITE THE SAME WAY WITH ITS WEAK CLOSED LOWS EVOLVING DIFFERENTLY AND IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEW DAY 7 DUE TO THE FACT THE BOTH MODELS DO WANT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALTHO THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE SMALL THREAT OF PRECIP FROM THESE WEAK TROFS. BOTH MODELS THEN DEVELOP SOME MANNER OF A LARGER TROF OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDWEEK WITH THE NEW 06Z GFS GETTING A BIT EXTREME BEYOND 200 HRS...AND LIKELY NOT REALISTIC. && .AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS MORNING...SO VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 6000 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/WILENSKY AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)