Weak Build, Large Draw to Remove Excess
Notes:
- Now I am going to translate the assumptions for the scenario into monthly patterns. This graph shows the stock changes in thousand barrels per day for the scenario.
- It highlights the fact that we need a somewhat weaker-than-normal build in the summer, and some fairly strong draws during the early winter to reach balance by the end of the year.
- Clearly, if the scenario did not unfold as discussed in 1999, there is room for further removal of excess during the first quarter year 2000.