AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 1010 AM PST THU FEB 2 2006 .SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE REGION EXPANDS NORTHWARD. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .UPDATE...VERY LIGHT AND VERY LOW TOP SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH ASHORE OVER NW CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. GFS REMAINS A LITTLE WETTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SINCE IT BRINGS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE IN ALOFT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT LATEST ETA12 AND RUC ARE IN LINE WITH GENERALLY DRY SLOT OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD PUSH OVERHEAD...WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION BEING THE MAIN DYNAMIC DRIVER. SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES OVERHEAD...BUT END THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL AREAS BUT ZONES 3 AND 4...WHERE WEAK OROGRAPHICS MAY HELP WRING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WITH VERY LIGHT SURFACE WIND EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH SITS ON TOP OF NW CALIFORNIA...EXPECT LITTLE WIND TO THOROUGHLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. SO WILL NOT GO TOO GUNG HO WITH CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS EXCEPT OVER ZONE 76 WHERE SOME NORTH WIND SHOULD HELP THE MIXING PROCESS. TJADEN && .DISCUSSION...A WHOPPING 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY IN EUREKA BRINGING THIS SEASONS TOTAL TO NEARLY 38 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST 1 3/4 TIMES THE NORMAL AMOUNT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL HOWEVER 3 LOCAL RIVERS HAVE REACHED MONITOR STAGE (EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE, KLAMATH AT KLAMATH AND THE MAD RIVER AT ARCATA) BUT WILL RECEDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS. SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE COAST BUT A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP PUMP UP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER WEATHER LATER TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. MOTHER NATURE FINALLY TURNS OF THE WATER SUPPLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING MUCH NEEDED DRY, SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND CUTS OFF THE STREAM OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN. FOG EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS TNGT UNDER WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT, PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND WET GROUND. && .EKA...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MEN OUT 60NM. SCA CAPE MEN TO PT ARENA OUT 60NM. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 200 PM MST THU FEB 2 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY) FORECAST PROBLEMS INCLUDE WINDS ON FRIDAY...SPRINKLES ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING WOULD BRING IT DOWN THE RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A POWERFUL 140KT JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT ITS POSITION WOULD PLACE LEFT REAR QUADRANT WHERE LIFT WITH THE WEAK WAVE WOULD BE STRONGEST. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WOULD BE OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING. EITHER WAY...WITH POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V AND DRY LOW LEVELS...IF ANYTHING WOULD GET GOING THINK IT WOULD BE NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES. BIGGER STORY ON FRIDAY MAY BE THE WINDS...WITH RUC20 OFF THE FSL WEBSITE DEVELOPING 25-30KT SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. HOWEVER...OTHER PARAMETERS...SUCH AS 800MB WIND OFF THE GFS AND NAM...NOT SO AGGRESSIVE. SO WILL BUMP UP WINDS TO LOW END WINDY AND HAVE NEXT SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WARMEST IN THE WEST. 700MB TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. USUAL GFS/NAM SPLIT WITH PRECIPITATION (WET GFS/DRY NAM). WHAT MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE WILL BE POST FRONTAL ON SUNDAY...AND BY THAT TIME 700MB DEFORMATION/OMEGA POINT TO NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA AS HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TOP DOWN CHART APPLIED TO GFS BUFR POINT SOUNDING FOR MCCOOK SAYS THAT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL SHAVE A CATEGORY OR SO OFF SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY) RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY AND SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL RELATIVELY FAR SOUTH...AND EMERGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST/COLDER WITH THE FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. WILL SHADE A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN THIS WINTER AND LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WEST COAST RIDGE REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED...RESULTING IN A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC OUTBREAK SEEMS CERTAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE AXIS AND BELIEVE GFS TREND OF WARMING TEMPERATURES HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO VERIFY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 940 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006 .OVERNIGHT UPDATE.... SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 02Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY BUT THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP INDICATED SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WE WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS AND TEMPERATURES. UPDATE FORECAST OUT BY 10 PM. SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)... THE RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN JUST MOVING INTO FTK AND SDF AT 1430Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BY SUNDOWN RAIN SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE FIRST 30 HOURS WITH SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS MOVE INTO LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ONLY MINOR DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING OF ENDING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS. MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z. NAM...RUC AND GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST...RAIN WILL END FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE FAR EAST THE RAIN WILL END JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW PERSISTS OVER THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ALSO BY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BE ADVANCING NORTH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT THEN RECOVER ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. SCHOLZ .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... CHALLENGES CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HAPPILY...NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SADLY...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THAT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FORECAST POSSIBILITIES. DEEP 500HPA TROF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROF SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOOT UP INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY AS IT DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY. 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY EVENING HEADS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY AS IT DEVELOPS INTO AN IMPRESSIVE STORM. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE LMK CWFA IS STILL A QUESTION MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM KEEPS RH LEVELS LOW AND THE SOUNDING PROFILE RELATIVELY WARM FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. GFS HOWEVER BRINGS AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE PASSING SURFACE LOW...WITH A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. IT ALSO HAS A COLDER PROFILE THAN THE NAM...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND A 5000 FOOT DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT -15 DEG C. THESE FACTORS WOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS RECENTLY AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE EXTREME GFS SOLUTION RIGHT NOW. THIS SOLUTION IS QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS THREE RUNS OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE SUPPLY ABOVE 800HPA. ENSEMBLE GFS CONSENSUS MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT SUCH DEEP MOISTURE. HPC KEEPS SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WELL EAST OF THE LMK CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...WILL NOT BUY THE GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...GEM IS OUT TO LUNCH SO WILL LEAN MORE ON GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK IN DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY. ON MONDAY GFS IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH A LITTLE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP POPS QUITE LOW. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO AFFECT US WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL CALL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL READINGS. 13 && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 300 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)... THE RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN JUST MOVING INTO FTK AND SDF AT 1430Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BY SUNDOWN RAIN SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE FIRST 30 HOURS WITH SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS MOVE INTO LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ONLY MINOR DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING OF ENDING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS. MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z. NAM...RUC AND GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST...RAIN WILL END FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE FAR EAST THE RAIN WILL END JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW PERSISTS OVER THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ALSO BY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BE ADVANCING NORTH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT THEN RECOVER ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. SCHOLZ .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... CHALLENGES CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HAPPILY...NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SADLY...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THAT RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FORECAST POSSIBILITIES. DEEP 500HPA TROF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROF SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOOT UP INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY AS IT DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY. 500HPA TROF AXIS WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FRIDAY EVENING HEADS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY AS IT DEVELOPS INTO AN IMPRESSIVE STORM. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE LMK CWFA IS STILL A QUESTION MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM KEEPS RH LEVELS LOW AND THE SOUNDING PROFILE RELATIVELY WARM FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. GFS HOWEVER BRINGS AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE PASSING SURFACE LOW...WITH A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. IT ALSO HAS A COLDER PROFILE THAN THE NAM...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND A 5000 FOOT DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT -15 DEG C. THESE FACTORS WOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS RECENTLY AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE EXTREME GFS SOLUTION RIGHT NOW. THIS SOLUTION IS QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS THREE RUNS OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE SUPPLY ABOVE 800HPA. ENSEMBLE GFS CONSENSUS MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT SUCH DEEP MOISTURE. HPC KEEPS SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WELL EAST OF THE LMK CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...WILL NOT BUY THE GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...GEM IS OUT TO LUNCH SO WILL LEAN MORE ON GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK IN DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY. ON MONDAY GFS IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH A LITTLE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP POPS QUITE LOW. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO AFFECT US WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL CALL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL READINGS. 13 && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 910 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV DROPPING THRU THE NRN PLAINS DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER CNTRL NAMERICA. ASSOCIATED SFC LO HAS MOVED INTO NW WI...WITH SE LLVL FLOW OVER THE FA TO THE N OF SUBTLE WARM FNT AND ON WRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING INTO THE FA FM ACYC CENTER WELL TO THE E. LOCAL 00Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS INDICATE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE H9-8 LYR TO PREVENT ANY SGNFT PCPN AHEAD OF THE LO/DEEPENING UPR TROF... BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES/MORE MSTR ABV THIS DRY LYR HAVE CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF MID CLD/SOME FLURRIES. OTRW...SOME LO CLD HAS DVLPD OVER THE CNTRL ZNS IN PRESENCE OF NIGHTTIME RADIATION LOSS/UPSLOPE SE FLOW BLO LO INVRN ARND H925 SHOWN ON LOCAL SDNGS. HEAVIER SN IS NOTED OVER NW MN BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT DIVING INTO THAT AREA WELL BEHIND SFC LO NOW IN NW WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CLD TRENDS/PCPN CHCS. 18Z GFS HAD BEST HANDLE ON EXPANSION OF MID CLD OBSVD THIS EVNG AHEAD OF SFC LO/WEAK WARM FNT AND IS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR UPDATE GUIDANCE. GFS SHOWS BAND OF UVV/HIER MID LVL RH IN ADVANCE OF WARM FNT MOVING SLOWLY SW-NE ACRS THE FA THRU 06Z...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS BEFORE THE BAND OF H7 UVV EXITS. LATER TNGT...THIS MODEL SHOWS SHARP COLD FNT/H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS/ LLVL CNVGC/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ARRIVING OVER THE WRN ZNS LATER AT NGT. WL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF ASSOCAITED PCPN CHCS A BIT TO REFLECT GFS TIMING OF THE MORE SGNFT DYNAMICS. SINCE TEMPS WITHIN LLVL MOIST LYR BLO INVRN ARE WELL ABV -10C... CONCERN THERE COULD BE SOME -FZDZ/BR ACRS THE CNTRL ZNS WHERE SSE FLOW EXPECTED OVERNGT WL BE UPSLOPING. MID CLD PRESENT ATTM SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEED THE LLVL MSTR SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE JUST FLURRIES AS DRY LYR NOT THAT DEEP (100MB)...BUT GFS HINTS MID CLD MAY DSPT FOR AWHILE LATER. SO HAVE ADDED PTCHY -FZDZ OVER THE CNTRL ZNS OVERNGT. FCST WELL ABV NORMAL LO TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. COORDINATED WITH GRB. KC .LONG TERM... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS FROM LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRI...THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE MID LVL TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE 850 MB FRONT...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS IN BRINGING PCPN THROUGH W UPR MI. EVEN WITH MODEST QG FORCING...PROXIMITY OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM...COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHSN PRODUCING BRIEF LOW VSBY AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. THE 12Z NAM HINTED AT SUCH A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...ONLY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SUCH A FEATURE...ONLY INCLUDED SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE W HLF. INCREASING CAA AND NRLY WINDS INTO W UPR MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -10C. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AS THE MID LVL TROF SLIDES EAST...DEEP MOISTURE AND NRLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL RATES. THE COOLER GFS H8 TEMPS WERE PREFERRED GIVEN RECENT MDL PERFORMANCE AND BIASES. WIND TRAJECTORIES WITH CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE 850-700 MB THERMAL TROF FAVORS WEST UPR MI...VCNTY KIWD...FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. HOWEVER LOCATIONS ACRS THE NORTH FROM THE KEWEENAW AND N CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY MIDDAY SAT H8 TEMPS FALL INTO THE -11C TO -15C RANGE WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE LEADING TO DECENT SNOWGROWTH. SO...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH 12 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES. CURRENT WATCH HEADLINES STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH LONG DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW GIVING ACCUMULATIONS TO AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MAY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THROUGH SAT...IWD VCNTY SHOULD STILL BE FAVORED FOR GREATEST AMOUNTS. SUN...LES RATES SHOULD MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY DESCENDS INTO THE WRN LAKES OUT OF ONTARIO...PER GFS/ECMWF...HEAVIER RATES MAY PERSIST WITH CONTUING LES HEADLINES. MON-THU...THE MDLS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN...FEATURING A WRN NOAM RDG AND A TROF OVER THE EAST...WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER...TYPICAL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS MOVING INTO THE N CNTRL CONUS. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH FROM MON INTO TUE WITH RIDING HGTS AND H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR -10C BY TUE AS A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV SLIDES THROUGH THE UPR MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE SLOWER/COLDER ECMWF IN RESPONSE TO RDG BUILDING TOWARD GREENLAND. THIS WOULD FAVOR BETTER LES CHANCES THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF A STRONG SHRTWV CRESTING THE RDG AND CARVING A DEEP TROF OVER THE LAKES...IT REMAINS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY ...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS SCENARIO WHICH WOULD BRING SYNOPTIC -SN OVER THE AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SHRTWV FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO LES AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND IT. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS OFTEN IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING HEIGHTS AND CLOSING OFF MID LVL LOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LES MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. JLB && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING FOR MIZ001-MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ009-MIZ084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FRI EVENING THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT MIZ005-MIZ006. $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS FROM LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH WSW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AROUND A MID/UPR LVL LOW OVER NW ONTARIO. A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN MN COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM SUPPORTED SOME CONVECTIVE SHSN OVER NE MN WITH VSBYS REPORTED BLO 1SM AT TIMES. OTHER STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWVS WERE LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD AND CNTRL SASK/MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...WEAK S TO SE FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPR MI AHEAD OF A 997 MB LOW OVER SE SD. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREAS OF CLOUDS SPREADING ACRS CNTRL UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER SW WI. TONIGHT...EXPECT THE BAND OF SHSN OVER NE MN WILL NOT AFFECT UPR MI AS THE SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE ENE. INCREASING 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 900-800 MB FGEN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID LVL TROF WILL ALSO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPR MI BUT MAY EDGE INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE. FRI...THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE MID LVL TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM TRENDS AND AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE 850 MB FRONT...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS IN BRINGING PCPN THROUGH W UPR MI. EVEN WITH MODEST QG FORCING...PROXIMITY OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM...COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHSN PRODUCING BRIEF LOW VSBY AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. THE 12Z NAM HINTED AT SUCH A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...ONLY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SUCH A FEATURE...ONLY INCLUDED SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE W HLF. INCREASING CAA AND NRLY WINDS INTO W UPR MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -10C. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AS THE MID LVL TROF SLIDES EAST...DEEP MOISTURE AND NRLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL RATES. THE COOLER GFS H8 TEMPS WERE PREFERRED GIVEN RECENT MDL PERFORMANCE AND BIASES. WIND TRAJECTORIES WITH CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE 850-700 MB THERMAL TROF FAVORS WEST UPR MI...VCNTY KIWD...FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. HOWEVER LOCATIONS ACRS THE NORTH FROM THE KEWEENAW AND N CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY MIDDAY SAT H8 TEMPS FALL INTO THE -11C TO -15C RANGE WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE LEADING TO DECENT SNOWGROWTH. SO...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH 12 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES. CURRENT WATCH HEADLINES STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH LONG DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW GIVING ACCUMULATIONS TO AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MAY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THROUGH SAT...IWD VCNTY SHOULD STILL BE FAVORED FOR GREATEST AMOUNTS. SUN...LES RATES SHOULD MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY DESCENDS INTO THE WRN LAKES OUT OF ONTARIO...PER GFS/ECMWF...HEAVIER RATES MAY PERSIST WITH CONTUING LES HEADLINES. MON-THU...THE MDLS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN...FEATURING A WRN NOAM RDG AND A TROF OVER THE EAST...WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER...TYPICAL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS MOVING INTO THE N CNTRL CONUS. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH FROM MON INTO TUE WITH RIDING HGTS AND H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR -10C BY TUE AS A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV SLIDES THROUGH THE UPR MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE SLOWER/COLDER ECMWF IN RESPONSE TO RDG BUILDING TOWARD GREENLAND. THIS WOULD FAVOR BETTER LES CHANCES THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF A STRONG SHRTWV CRESTING THE RDG AND CARVING A DEEP TROF OVER THE LAKES...IT REMAINS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY ...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS SCENARIO WHICH WOULD BRING SYNOPTIC -SN OVER THE AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SHRTWV FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO LES AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND IT. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS OFTEN IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING HEIGHTS AND CLOSING OFF MID LVL LOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LES MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING FOR MIZ001-MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ009-MIZ084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FRI EVENING THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT MIZ005-MIZ006. $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1102 AM EST THU FEB 2 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITIATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTH PLAINS. WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN U.P....EASTERN NORTH DAKOTAS...AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS PARKED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN U.P. WILL RACE INTO QUEBEC...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. OVERRUNNING OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DRAW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE FAR WESTERN U.P. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE INCREASE MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP CLOUD COVER THE MODELS SHOW DRY AT NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TODAY IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED SO MAY TWEAK SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE...THE FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING FOR MIZ001-MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ009-MIZ084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FRI EVENING THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT MIZ005-MIZ006. $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 840 PM MST THU FEB 2 2006 .UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE JEMEZ TO CHC CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND ADDED 10 POPS FARTHER S INTO NE ZONE 8...THE WEST MESA AND FOOTHILLS AROUND ALBUQUERQUE...THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ZONE 11. CURRENTLY DECENT BAND OF PRECIP OVER AND S OF THE JEMEZ AND IS RACING SE. MUCH OF THIS BAND OF MOSTLY SNOW WILL FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE DUKE CITY...BUT FEEL SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MENTIONED AN INCH OR TWO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE JEMEZ OVERNIGHT AND AN INCH IN THE SANGRES. OTHERWISE REMOVED THE EVENING WORDING OF THE WINDS AN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS. INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE N SOME. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. CHJ && .PREV DISCUSSION...225 PM MST THU FEB 2 2006...WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERN IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED SUSTAINED WIND ADVISORY CRITERION THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT HAVE NOT AS YET MAINTAINED THOSE LEVELS. EFFICIENT MIXING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITIES MORE MOIST THAN RED FLAG CRITERION. RUC 250MB ANALYSIS SHOWS 100KT TO 120 KT JET SHOWN PUNCHING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF STATE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET IS COINCIDENT WITH AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND VIRGA. WINDS WILL HOLD UP FOR A TIME UNDER THE JET...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...SO WILL ONLY GO BREEZY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE. WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AID IN UPSLOPE AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE BEST LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST WITH IT...OUT OF NEW MEXICO. WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON FRIDAY...MID AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN. INVERSION SEEN DEVELOPING AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WEAK MID AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE. THUS...EXPECT LOWER WINDS...LESS MIXING AND A BIT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT WIND MAKER APPEARS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER 120KT JET MAX PASSING OVER NE NM. ONCE AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...KD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 27 49 21 54 / 10 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 20 51 10 58 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 23 51 14 59 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 28 63 25 69 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 17 39 5 47 / 30 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 47 17 52 / 10 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 17 38 6 43 / 30 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 17 45 10 50 / 20 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 25 48 20 53 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 50 21 55 / 5 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 23 51 18 57 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 55 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 30 56 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 52 25 55 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 56 25 60 / 5 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 31 58 25 64 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 51 20 51 / 5 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 54 24 56 / 5 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 32 55 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 31 53 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 20 48 15 53 / 20 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 27 50 20 55 / 10 0 0 0 ROY............................. 27 47 22 52 / 10 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 26 51 22 56 / 20 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 31 54 26 61 / 10 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 29 57 23 59 / 10 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 31 61 26 61 / 5 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 32 59 26 58 / 5 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 31 61 26 61 / 5 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 39 64 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 19 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 225 PM MST THU FEB 2 2006 .DISCUSSION...WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERN IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED SUSTAINED WIND ADVISORY CRITERION THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT HAVE NOT AS YET MAINTAINED THOSE LEVELS. EFFICIENT MIXING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITIES MORE MOIST THAN RED FLAG CRITERION. RUC 250MB ANALYSIS SHOWS 100KT TO 120 KT JET SHOWN PUNCHING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF STATE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET IS COINCIDENT WITH AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND VIRGA. WINDS WILL HOLD UP FOR A TIME UNDER THE JET...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...SO WILL ONLY GO BREEZY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE. WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AID IN UPSLOPE AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE BEST LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST WITH IT...OUT OF NEW MEXICO. WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON FRIDAY...MID AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN. INVERSION SEEN DEVELOPING AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WEAK MID AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE. THUS...EXPECT LOWER WINDS...LESS MIXING AND A BIT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEXT WIND MAKER APPEARS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER 120KT JET MAX PASSING OVER NE NM. ONCE AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...KD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 27 49 21 54 / 10 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 20 51 10 58 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 23 51 14 59 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 28 63 25 69 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 17 39 5 47 / 30 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 47 17 52 / 10 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 17 38 6 43 / 30 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 17 45 10 50 / 20 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 25 48 20 53 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 50 21 55 / 5 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 23 51 18 57 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 55 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 30 56 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 52 25 55 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 56 25 60 / 5 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 31 58 25 64 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 51 20 51 / 5 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 54 24 56 / 5 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 32 55 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 31 53 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 20 48 15 53 / 20 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 27 50 20 55 / 10 0 0 0 ROY............................. 27 47 22 52 / 10 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 26 51 22 56 / 20 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 31 54 26 61 / 10 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 29 57 23 59 / 10 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 31 61 26 61 / 5 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 32 59 26 58 / 5 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 31 61 26 61 / 5 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 39 64 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 19 nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 948 AM CST THU FEB 2 2006 .UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKING TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY. AT 15Z...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SE ND/WC MN (LOOKS TO BE CENTERED JUST S OF GFK) WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF -SN ACROSS NW MN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER AREA 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE E OF FA BY NOON. THEN...COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH FA TODAY. ASSOCIATED -SN NOW SPREADING INTO DVL BASIN WITH ADDITIONAL RETURNS EVIDENT FROM CANADIAN RADAR NETWORK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH FA TODAY. 12Z RUC DEPICTS THESE WAVES WELL...AND SHOWS ASSOCIATED 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AS 850MB- 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SWINGS THROUGH. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS N FA. LIGHT WINDS WITH BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH MOITURE HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...AND WILL MENTION UNTIL AFTER FROPA. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN 25 MPH. WILL EVALUATE TEMPERATURE GRID AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT MANY CHANGES ANTICIPATED. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT WILL BE SENT BY 1030AM. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ TG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 852 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THUS FAR...WITH HEAVIER RAIN LOCATED WELL TO THE W AND SE. COMPARING MODEL QPF IN THE 18Z GFS AND NAM...WITH RADAR COMPOSITES...NEITHER IS DOING WELL WITH PRECIP THAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING...AS CONVECTION ALONG THE S CAROLINA AND GA COAST NOT WELL HANDLED. STILL THINK WILL GET PRECIP FILLING IN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SE AND S LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DYNAMICS IMPROVE...WITH VORT LOBE CROSSING THE AREA. STILL...LIKELY NOT A HIGH QPF EVENT FOR MOST PLACES...WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO ANY CONVECTION. CONCERNING THUNDER POTENTIAL...STARTING TO SEE SOME LOWER 50S DEWPTS WORKING INTO CENTRAL N CAROLINA...AND THESE WILL LIKELY GET INTO AT LEAST SE ZONES OVERNIGHT. RUC CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX PROGS SHOW MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKEWISE SHIFTING RAPIDLY NWD OVERNIGHT...REACHING AS FAR N AS PERHAPS FAR SE ZONES...SO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THERE...LATE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 318 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... MILD WX CONTG THIS AFTN...AS CLDNS FM THE SW GRDLY INCRSS. LO PRES MVG ACRS NRN MS THIS AFTN...MVS NE OVRNGT...REACHING WRN PA FRI MORNING. TWO AREAS OF PCPN ASSOCD W/ THE LO...ONE FM SRN GA INTO ERN GOM...THE OTR MVG THROUGH TN/OH VLYS. PER STUDIES AT RAH/NC ST...WATCHING CNVTN TO OUR S WHICH MVS OFFSHR TNGT...AND PTNTLLY ROBS MSTR SOURCE THIS FAR N. THE PCPN TO THE W WON'T BE A FACTOR IN WX HERE AS LO PRES PASSES NW OF RGN. WL CONT W/ HIEST POPS ESE SXNS THRUT NGTTM HRS...EVEN PSBL T IN SE VA/NE NC. LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OTR AREAS...THO THERE WL BE A TREND TO LWRG POPS AFT 06Z ACRS SCNTRL/CNTRL VA AS STRNGST UVM PUSHES THROUGH. SWLY FLO TAKES OVR FRI...LEADING TO SGFNT DRYING BY MID/LT MORNING HRS. HOLDING ONTO CHC POPS NE QTR OF FA ERY. OTRW...XPCTG P/MSNY W/ TEMPS WRMG INTO 60S (EVEN LWR 70S FAR INTR SXNS IN SCNTRL VA). FOR REFERENCE...INCLDD RCRD HI TEMPS BLO (FOR FRI 2/3). AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT W OF MTNS FRI NGT...RESULTING IN DVLPG SFC LO PRES INVOF SRN MTNS. AS THAT LO PRES TRACKS NE IN THE MTNS DURG THE NGTTM/ERY SAT MORNING HRS...XPCTG ANOTHER RND OF MSTR TO SPRD INTO RGN. NOT READY TO GO W/ LIKELY OR HIER POPS YET...LMTG POPS TO CHC SINCE THERE MAY BE SEPARATION BTWN UVM/PCPN NR THE CST...AND UVM/PCPN ALG-WNW OF LO PRES TRACK. DRYING TREND AGN BY SAT AFTN AS LLVL FLO TURNS WSW...W/ LMTD EFFECTS BY LLVL CAA (ON TEMPS). HI TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NR 60. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... +PNA PTRN DVLPG IN THE XTNDD...KPG TROUGH ALOFT IN THE ERN PART OF CONUS...RDGG OUT W. XPCTG RETURN TO NR NRML TEMPS (GENLY 40S BY DAY/20S AT NGT MOST PLCS) THROUGH MID NEXT WK. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 3Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FROM SW TO NE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 3Z AND 8Z. CIGS STAY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. MARINE... S WNDS INCRSNG TNGT WILL ALLOW FOR SCA CRITERIA FOR WNDS IN THE BAY AND FOR SEAS ON THE CST...AND LAST THRU FRI. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT AFTN THRU SUN...WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRNTL PASSAGE. CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPS FRI 2/3 RIC 77/1989 ORF 81/1989 SBY 73/1939 ECG 82/1989 AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY. $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...25 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM FRIDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...REILLY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1025 AM CST THU FEB 2 2006 .UPDATE... UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE COMING BY 1630Z TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA/ AND WILL ALSO BE DROPPING PCPN CHANCES IN FAR NRN CWA. MORNING RUC/RAOBS SHOWING BROAD H5 TROF ACROSS UPR MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROF. ONE DISTURBANCE IN WRN ND WILL BE THE PRIMARY WAVE THAT DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT WITH A PRETTY NICE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT...AND A SECOND WAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER WHICH WILL ROTATE E/NE THROUGH THE TROF INTO SRN AND ERN WISC TONIGHT. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S WEAK WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME NICE CLEARING FOR TODAY...THOUGH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THESE SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WINDS DOWN. WARM FRONT AT 15Z ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH VERY MILD AIR IN IA CREEPING IN ON SWLY FLOW. 15Z RUC SUGGESTING 925MB TEMPS /+3 TO +7/ WILL MIX DOWN IN SOME FASHION...ESPECIALLY SWRN CWA. WILL BE BUMPING MOST AREAS UP A FEW DEGREES WHICH APPROACHES RECORDS IN NERN IA. WILL ALSO GO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BINAU wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 243 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006 .SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...LAST HOUR HAS SEEN THIS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION SLOW WITH STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND THE LATEST RUC WHICH SHOW THE BEST LIFT HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. MUCH DRIER NAM SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED. SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE JET QUADRANT HELPING ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS SECOND SFC LOW IN AS MANY DAYS DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH A DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...HAVE FAVORED THE GFS PRETTY HEAVILY. PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END OF TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS SO SEVERE WX WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS RETURNS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MEAN EASTERN TROUGH DEVELOPS. TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS BUT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO AVOID A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...EASTERN TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BUT THE WX SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY. && .MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE DUE TO ONGOING STORMS BUT WILL DECLINE LATER TODAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND WINDS SHIFT TO WLY AS FRONT PASSES. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING DAY SHIFT TO DECIDE WHETHER TO DROP OR JUST CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY DROPPING RH VALUES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT WEST OF THE INTRACOASTAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 53 59 32 / 70 50 20 10 SSI 70 57 62 35 / 70 70 20 10 JAX 74 59 64 33 / 70 70 30 10 SGJ 74 61 65 36 / 70 70 50 10 GNV 75 58 63 33 / 70 70 40 10 OCF 76 61 64 34 / 70 70 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ PUBLIC...CAMP MARINE/FIRE WX...TRABERT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 342 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO SO WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE RUC/NAM DUE TO BETTER MESOSCALE RESOLUTION. SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCD MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ACRS ERN MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO/EXTREME NE INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. MEANWHILE...A S/WV ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z...THEN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSE ACRS THE CWFA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACRS THE NRN/WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA...IN WHICH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL JUST HAVE CHC POPS...OR NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN AS DNVA WILL TAKE OVER...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO 30 AND 40 PERCENT AFTER 18Z. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT FCST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON TARGET. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WISCONSIN...SWWD INTO NW IOWA/NRN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE HAVE BEEN DRASTIC MODEL CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z/02 MEAN SOLUTION OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW. JUST 24 HOURS LATER THE 00Z/03 NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES WEST...NOW TAKING THE SURFACE LOW UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS DRASTIC CHANGE...PLUS RECENT VERY POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PERFORMANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL ITERATIONS CAN REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RUN...THEN CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PAINTS A HIGHLY COMPLEX PICTURE WITH AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET CORE ARCING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER TEXAS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER TEXAS AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS NOW FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS AND SHARPENS. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z SAT TO WESTERN NY BY 06Z SUN. 00Z/03 ECMWF HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE MUCH FARTHER WEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE GEM IS FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THIS IS A FLIP BACK TO WHAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN ON AND OFF FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW SAT AM ACROSS NW OHIO GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INITIALLY...OTHERWISE EVENT WILL BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING LOW. OF GREAT CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL GIVEN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW CROSSING A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT ON SAT...BUT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SEEDER/FEEDER LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SAT PM AND SAT NGT GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES. SINCE THIS IS A 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A FEW MODEL RUNS WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BACK TO BACK BEFORE LOCKING INTO A HEADLINE. WILL ONLY OFFER GENERIC SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WORDING IN ZFP. IF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE STRENGTHENING NW WINDS SAT PM AND SAT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING. ON SUNDAY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C. THIS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES RISING TO AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET. SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW SE OF THE LAKE...DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE SUN NGT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT ALL FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. COULD SEE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED NGT INTO THURSDAY WITH GFS/GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF DEPICT A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWED STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR FRI AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION... 05Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR ERN KY. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK NE INTO WRN PA BY 12Z...THEN INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 18Z. MID LVL SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACRS ERN INDIANA. AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AT KFWA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS...THEN...AS THE MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS NE INTO ERN MICHIGAN...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF. KSBN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO BE AFFECT BY AFOREMENTIONED PCPN...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY HERE IN THE SHORT TERM. CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR AT KFWA TO MVFR AT KSBN. NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE MISSOURI. THIS S/WV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z...THEN INTO NW OHIO BY 18Z. SHOWERS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING ACRS WRN ILLINOIS...AND THUS AM FCSTING SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACRS TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF AT THE TAF SITES AS THE S/WV PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z. A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WRN WISCONSIN SWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR... AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN TN VALLEY. ATTM...WILL SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AT KFWA AND KSBN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS. SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN IS FCST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 305 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006 .DISCUSSION... COMPLICATED WX NOW AND AHEAD. SFC LOW OVR OH WITH FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT WILL CARVE OUT A SUPER-ELONGATED TROF OVR THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVR SUPERBOWL COUNTRY SAT EVE AND CURLING NWD INTO ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A COMPLEX BATCH OF ENERGY BEGINS A RUN SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PAST WEEK HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WORST IN RECENT YEARS WITH MODELS FLIP-FLOPING ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. 00Z GFS AND NOW THE 06Z ETA DAMPEN THE S/W AS THE CLOSED 500 LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT ROTATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. FOR NOW THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND EARLIER ETA WAS A BIT TOO FAR NORTH...THIS EVENTUALLY MEANS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM. FEEL THAT THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY END UP COMING ACRS MO AND SOUTHERN HALF IL. 06Z ETA HAS VORT MAX OVR WEST PLAINS MO BY 12Z MONDAY...PCPN TRACK MAXIMUM IS USUALLY 120 MILES NORTH OF THE VORT MAX TRACK...THAT CNTRS IT PRETTY WELL OVER ST LOUIS. I WOULD NORMALLY INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY BUT SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SO CRAZY WILL ONLY INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WAIT TIL TOMORROW NIGHT TO TRY TO HONE IN ON IT A LITTLE MORE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY THEN SO THERE'S NO PROBLEM WITH PCPN TYPE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN SOME TIME. DEC 21ST WAS THE LAST DAY WE WERE BELOW NORMAL HERE AND AFTER THE THIRD WARMEST JANUARY EVER THE COLDER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WIND WILL SEEM COLDER THAN NORMAL. IN SHORT TERM WILL KEEP AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. NO CLDS OVERHEAD...DRYING AMS...INCRSG LOW LVL WLY WNDS SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO KEEP THIS A SHORT TERM EVENT. NEXT...LOW STRATUS IS RACING SEWD WITH LEADING EDGE REACHING CENTRAL IA TO EXTRM SE NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. MODELS ALL HAVE WLY FLOW AND DRYING AIR EATING IT AWAY AS IT MOVS INTO MO. NOT SO SURE THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN...HAVE IT DROPPING TO COLUMBIA TO SPRINGFIELD IL BY 18Z AND REALLY THINK IT MAY BE MORE PROMINENT THAN THE MODELS FCST IT BUT WILL LEAVE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY FOR NOW. PEDIGO && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SHRTWV TROF OVR NERN AND E CNTRL MO WL MOV EWD THRU CNTRL SRN IL. BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DVLPD AHD OF THIS FEATURE SW OF STL. THESE SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD PASS S OF STL. LOW LVL CLOUD CVR ARND 1500 FT IN THE STL AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOV E OF THE STL AND SUS TAF SITES ARND 12Z AS LOW LVL W-NWLY WNDS INCRS OVR THE CWA TOWARDS MRNG. LATEST RUC RH FCST AT 925 MB SHOW HIGH RH OF 80 PERCENT PUSHING E OF STL ARND 09Z. MOS CIG HGT GUIDANCE FOR STL IS A LTL SLOWER AS IT DOES NOT BRING THE CIG HGTS UP TO VFR CONDITIONS TIL 12-15Z. MAY GO CLOSER TO THE QUICKER CLRG OF THE RUC GUIDANCE AS THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SEEMS TO SHOW AT LEAST A LTL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. WHILE THIS BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS MOV E OF THE AREA BY MRNG...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVR THE NRN PLAINS BHND A CDFNT WILL LIKELY PUSH SEWD INTO THE CWA DURING THE LT MRNG AND AFTN HOURS. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1108 PM CST THU FEB 2 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE 12Z SHORT-TERM MDLS (TIL SUNDAY)...H500 TROF OVR THE CNTRL CONUS WL SLOLY PROPAGATE EWD WHERE IT WL GET /FED/ A SERIES OF SHRTWVS AND FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A LO OVR THE UPR OH VLY AND TRACK INTO THE ERN GRTLKS. THIS WL ALL RESULT IN THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A H500 PTRN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THRU MUCH OF DECEMBER...AND SO AS ALL THINGS EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END...SO SHALL THIS UNUSUAL WRM SPELL THAT HAS SET RECORDS FOR JANUARY. ANOTHER SHRTWV WL SLAM INTO THE PAC NW ERY SATURDAY AND THEN RPDLY MOV SEWD INTO THE SRN PLNS BY LATE SUNDAY. MDLS ALL HV SIMILAR TRACKS AT H500 WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE WKND...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR SFC REFLECTIONS...OF WHICH MDLS HV HAD A TREND OF TRACKING FURTHER TO THE S. AT THE SFC...TROF SWINGS THRU FA TNGT...WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING UP AND CYC CURV AT LO LVLS PERSISTING FRI/SAT. SFC RDG THEN BLDS IN FOR SAT NGT AND SLIDES INTO THE NERN HALF OF THE FA ON SUNDAY. GFS/NAM ALMOST IDENTICAL THRU SAT...WITH ONLY REAL DIFFS OCCURRING WITH THE SHRTWV SYS ON SUNDAY. PREFER THE FURTHER N NAM WHICH REPRESENTS A MORE CONSERVATIVE CHG FM PREV FCST THAN THE GFS...BUT IMPACTS ARE STILL SML AT THIS TIME. FOR TNGT...VORT MX TRACKING ACRS NRN MO ATTM IS PRODUCING SCT SHRA ON ITS ERN/SERN FLANKS...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE TO ITS NE AND N. VORT MX WL CONT TRACKING EWD ACRS NRN MO AND INTO W CNTRL IL THIS EVNG...AND THEN EXIT THE NRN FA SHORTLY AFT MDNGT. HV ADDED SCT SHRA WORDING TO THE FCST FOR MAINLY THIS EVNG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHRA ALMOST AS FAR S AS THE I-70 CORR AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO THE N. MOS TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK...AND DID NOT STRAY FAR FM. FOR FRI...CDFNT TO DROP THRU THE NRN FA DURG THE LATE MRNG HRS...AND THEN THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURG THE ERY AFTN HRS. CAA AT LO LVLS RATHER SGFNT AND SHUD RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS DURG THE AFTN FOR THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA AS SC CLDS RPDLY PUSH SWD BHND THE FNT IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AT LO LVLS. FOR SATURDAY...SHUD BE A CD DAY WITH PTSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA WITH LO LVL RDG BLDG IN FM THE W...WITH SOME MORE CLDS TO THE E...WHERE THE LO LVL CYC CURV WL HANG ON THE LONGEST. COULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY IN THE ERN FA AS WELL...BUT LEFT OUT FM THE FCST FOR NOW. LO LVL RDG WL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVR A LARGER PART OF THE FA SAT NGT AND WL RESULT IN SOME OF THE CDST MIN TEMPS WE HAVE HAD IN SOME TIME. FOR THE EXTDD PD (SUN - THURS)...MDLS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGRMT THAT A MUCH MORE TYPICAL WINTERTIME H500 PTRN WL TAKE HOLD ACRS THE CONUS...WITH A LONGWAVE RDG OVR THE W AND LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE E... AND IS EXPCD TO AMPLIFY DURG THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF STG SHRTWVS WL PUSH SWD THRU THE FA DURG THIS PD. THE FIRST WL POTENTIALLY HV THE GREATEST IMPACT...PENDING THE TRACK...BUT THE MDLS HV BEEN TRENDING S ON THE TRACK WITH EACH RUN. THE 12Z MDLS HV IT EVEN FURTHER S...WITH THE NAM FURTHEST N A LA THE 06Z DGEX. FOR NOW...PREFER THE 06Z GFS/12Z NAM TRACK WHICH TAKES SFC LO THRU NERN OK WITH ONLY SML IMPACT TO THE SWRN FA FOR SUNDAY NGT/ERY MONDAY. P-TYPE SHUD BE ALL SNOW...BUT MUCH TOO ERY TO SPECULATE ON AMNTS WITH TRACK SO UNCERTAIN. THE SECOND SHRTWV WL HV CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WHEN IT PASSES OVHD TUES NGT...WITH MAIN EFFECT BEING EXTRA CLDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL CD AIR. THE THIRD SHRTWV THEN PASSES THRU IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS. THIS WL DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF CD AIR AS WELL AS A SML CHC FOR PCPN. TEMPS WL BE AOB NORMAL DURG THIS PD GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE PTRN. TES && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SHRTWV TROF OVR NERN AND E CNTRL MO WL MOV EWD THRU CNTRL SRN IL. BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DVLPD AHD OF THIS FEATURE SW OF STL. THESE SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD PASS S OF STL. LOW LVL CLOUD CVR ARND 1500 FT IN THE STL AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOV E OF THE STL AND SUS TAF SITES ARND 12Z AS LOW LVL W-NWLY WNDS INCRS OVR THE CWA TOWARDS MRNG. LATEST RUC RH FCST AT 925 MB SHOW HIGH RH OF 80 PERCENT PUSHING E OF STL ARND 09Z. MOS CIG HGT GUIDANCE FOR STL IS A LTL SLOWER AS IT DOES NOT BRING THE CIG HGTS UP TO VFR CONDITIONS TIL 12-15Z. MAY GO CLOSER TO THE QUICKER CLRG OF THE RUC GUIDANCE AS THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SEEMS TO SHOW AT LEAST A LTL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. WHILE THIS BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS MOV E OF THE AREA BY MRNG...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVR THE NRN PLAINS BHND A CDFNT WILL LIKELY PUSH SEWD INTO THE CWA DURING THE LT MRNG AND AFTN HOURS. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 640 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006 .AVIATION... UPR LVL S/WV AND ASSOCD VORTICITY MAX OVER NE ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SERN MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAX. WILL INCLUDE SHOWERS AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z ALONG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z AS SFC WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE...ALLOWING SFC VSBYS TO IMPROVE AND CIGS TO RISE. A WINTER STORM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VLY REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL WISCONSIN...ERN IOWA...THEN INTO SRN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACRS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHC OF RAIN/SNOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VLY...WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING WEST/NORTHWEST INTO INDIANA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... UPDATE... AREA OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING FOG WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SPOTS. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO MENTION MORNING FOG...AND WILL ISSUE A NOWCAST HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NEW GRIDS/DIGITAL DATA WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO SO WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE RUC/NAM DUE TO BETTER MESOSCALE RESOLUTION. SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCD MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ACRS ERN MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO/EXTREME NE INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. MEANWHILE...A S/WV ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z...THEN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSE ACRS THE CWFA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACRS THE NRN/WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA...IN WHICH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL JUST HAVE CHC POPS...OR NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN AS DNVA WILL TAKE OVER...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO 30 AND 40 PERCENT AFTER 18Z. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT FCST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON TARGET. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WISCONSIN...SWWD INTO NW IOWA/NRN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE HAVE BEEN DRASTIC MODEL CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z/02 MEAN SOLUTION OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW. JUST 24 HOURS LATER THE 00Z/03 NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES WEST...NOW TAKING THE SURFACE LOW UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS DRASTIC CHANGE...PLUS RECENT VERY POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PERFORMANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL ITERATIONS CAN REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RUN...THEN CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PAINTS A HIGHLY COMPLEX PICTURE WITH AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET CORE ARCING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER TEXAS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER TEXAS AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS NOW FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS AND SHARPENS. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z SAT TO WESTERN NY BY 06Z SUN. 00Z/03 ECMWF HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE MUCH FARTHER WEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE GEM IS FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THIS IS A FLIP BACK TO WHAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN ON AND OFF FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW SAT AM ACROSS NW OHIO GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INITIALLY...OTHERWISE EVENT WILL BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING LOW. OF GREAT CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL GIVEN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW CROSSING A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT ON SAT...BUT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SEEDER/FEEDER LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SAT PM AND SAT NGT GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES. SINCE THIS IS A 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A FEW MODEL RUNS WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BACK TO BACK BEFORE LOCKING INTO A HEADLINE. WILL ONLY OFFER GENERIC SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WORDING IN ZFP. IF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE STRENGTHENING NW WINDS SAT PM AND SAT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING. ON SUNDAY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C. THIS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES RISING TO AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET. SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW SE OF THE LAKE...DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE SUN NGT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT ALL FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. COULD SEE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED NGT INTO THURSDAY WITH GFS/GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF DEPICT A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWED STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR FRI AND BEYOND. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 530 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006 .UPDATE... AREA OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING FOG WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SPOTS. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO MENTION MORNING FOG...AND WILL ISSUE A NOWCAST HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NEW GRIDS/DIGITAL DATA WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO SO WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE RUC/NAM DUE TO BETTER MESOSCALE RESOLUTION. SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCD MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ACRS ERN MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO/EXTREME NE INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. MEANWHILE...A S/WV ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z...THEN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSE ACRS THE CWFA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACRS THE NRN/WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA...IN WHICH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL JUST HAVE CHC POPS...OR NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN AS DNVA WILL TAKE OVER...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO 30 AND 40 PERCENT AFTER 18Z. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT FCST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON TARGET. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WISCONSIN...SWWD INTO NW IOWA/NRN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE HAVE BEEN DRASTIC MODEL CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z/02 MEAN SOLUTION OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW. JUST 24 HOURS LATER THE 00Z/03 NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES WEST...NOW TAKING THE SURFACE LOW UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS DRASTIC CHANGE...PLUS RECENT VERY POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PERFORMANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL ITERATIONS CAN REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RUN...THEN CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PAINTS A HIGHLY COMPLEX PICTURE WITH AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET CORE ARCING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER TEXAS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER TEXAS AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS NOW FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS AND SHARPENS. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z SAT TO WESTERN NY BY 06Z SUN. 00Z/03 ECMWF HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE MUCH FARTHER WEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE GEM IS FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THIS IS A FLIP BACK TO WHAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN ON AND OFF FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW SAT AM ACROSS NW OHIO GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INITIALLY...OTHERWISE EVENT WILL BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING LOW. OF GREAT CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL GIVEN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW CROSSING A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT ON SAT...BUT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SEEDER/FEEDER LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SAT PM AND SAT NGT GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES. SINCE THIS IS A 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A FEW MODEL RUNS WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BACK TO BACK BEFORE LOCKING INTO A HEADLINE. WILL ONLY OFFER GENERIC SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WORDING IN ZFP. IF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE STRENGTHENING NW WINDS SAT PM AND SAT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING. ON SUNDAY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C. THIS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES RISING TO AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET. SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW SE OF THE LAKE...DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE SUN NGT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT ALL FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. COULD SEE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED NGT INTO THURSDAY WITH GFS/GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF DEPICT A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWED STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR FRI AND BEYOND. AVIATION... 05Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR ERN KY. THIS LOW IS FCST TO TRACK NE INTO WRN PA BY 12Z...THEN INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY 18Z. MID LVL SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACRS ERN INDIANA. AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AT KFWA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS...THEN...AS THE MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS NE INTO ERN MICHIGAN...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF. KSBN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO BE AFFECT BY AFOREMENTIONED PCPN...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY HERE IN THE SHORT TERM. CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR AT KFWA TO MVFR AT KSBN. NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE MISSOURI. THIS S/WV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z...THEN INTO NW OHIO BY 18Z. SHOWERS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING ACRS WRN ILLINOIS...AND THUS AM FCSTING SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACRS TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF AT THE TAF SITES AS THE S/WV PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z. A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WRN WISCONSIN SWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR... AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN TN VALLEY. ATTM...WILL SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AT KFWA AND KSBN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS. SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN IS FCST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE TAF SITES TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 914 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006 .UPDATE... BAND OF SNOW SLOWLY MARCHING EWRD ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA THIS MRNG. BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW STRETCHES FROM APPROX MORA TO LITCHFIELD TO NEW ULM...WITH THE HEAVIEST ECHOES FROM THE NERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN CITIES TO JUST N OF AEL. THIS SNOW BAND IS ASSOC WITH STRONG DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS...EVIDENT ON THE PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF THE 12Z RAOB DATA AND IN WV IMAGERY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS TEMP GRADIENT MOVES SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HOURS...AS THE VIGOROUS UPR SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVR WRN MN PUSHES INTO WRN WI BY LATE AFTN/EVE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER ECHOES ON 88D /30 TO 35 DBZ/...SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT LARGE...AND AS A RESULT...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY /PSBLY AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF AT MOST/. HAVE RETOOLED POP/WX/SNOW AMT FCST SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THESE DATA. NEXT CONSIDERATION IS SKY COVER. THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE RHYME OR REASON BEHIND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SKY COVER ACRS PORTIONS OF THE FA...WITH SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN W CNTRL MN THIS MRNG...ALTHO LO STRATUS IS MOVING IN FROM THE N AND IS ALSO HANGING ON IN THE E IN THE AREA OF THE SNOW BAND. ATTM...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS W CNTRL MN WITH THE CLD COVER HANGING ON ACRS A GOOD PORTION OF E CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL WI THRU THE EVE AND OVRNGT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED THRU THE DAY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY AVBL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006/ DISCUSSION... STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR WE'VE SEEN FOR SOME TIME NOW PUSHING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA. 3 AM TEMPERATURES JUST NW OF CWA GETTING DOWN TO NEAR ZERO. MOST AREAS ARE ABOUT AS WARM NOW AS THEY WILL BE THRU THE DAY. RATHER SHARP UPPER TROF WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES ALSO SHAKING OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHICH MAY GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMUATION THIS MORNING IN THE N CWA. ALSO JUST AHEAD OF THE PUSH OF COLD AIR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED. THIS SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED IN EC MN (12Z) AND INTO THE MID MORNING IN WC WI UNTIL COLD AIR RUSHES IT. ALSO COMBO OF GUSTY NW WINDS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION COUPLE WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS IN WESTERN CWA FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD GET DOWN NEAR ZERO IN W AREAS TONIGHT WHERE SOME CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NAM IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF SOME -SN INTO SW MN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...BUT OTHER MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION TO OUR SW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TREND OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF COMING INTO LINE AS LONG ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR INVASION IS ON THE WAY. SOME MODIFICATION OF COLD AIR WILL OCCUR EARLY IN PERIOD...AS CWA REMAINS LOCKED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN CWA FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THEN NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS LATER WEDNESDAY. SOME WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AS WELL. THEN CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL MENTION CHANCE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. COLDER ARCTIC AIR FILTERS IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY. .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ KAT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MSAS ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE CWA UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. MOST NOTABLY...MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 60 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HOWEVER...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS WILL REACH MID 70S TODAY...SO WILL DROP MAX TEMPS MORE TOWARD THE LOWER 70S. RUC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE FIRST POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL TO ARRIVE IN THE CWA WILL ORIGINATE MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT FROM LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM REFORMS AS THE WARM FRONT OF A NEWLY DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE THIS RAINFALL FIRST. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE MORE ORGANIZED EVENT WILL BE TOWARD EVENING. BEST CHANCE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS BRINGS LOWEST LIFTED INDICES INTO THE REGION IN THE EVENING AS WELL AS THE BEST LIFT. && .MARINE...CURRENT BUOY OBS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN 06Z MMG GUIDANCE...WITH BUOY 4 AROUND 17 KT AND BUOY 8 AROUND 12 KT. EVEN THOUGH WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...WINDS ARE GOING TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL REWORD COASTAL FORECAST AND TAKE OUT THE SCA FOR NEARSHORE SC WATERS UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT TIME...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TO BRING ABOUT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WATERS. CURRENT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS ARE WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...WITH THE SABSOON R2 TOWER REPORTING 8 FOOT SEAS. WILL THUS MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS. && .AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER WILL INCREASE BY THIS EVENING. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374. && $$ WMS sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1059 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY METAR OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA POST FRONT AS WELL. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE 30S...WITH A SWATH OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE SHIFT. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE ALREADY UP TO 50...WITH PLENTY OF TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CLIMB INTO THE MID...IF NOT UPPER 50S. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS PER THE 12Z SOUNDING...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE RIVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LATEST RUC AGREES AND WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST FOR HIGHER TEMPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT PAST FEW RUNS WITH STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND SAT KEEPING BRUNT OF ITS PRECIPITATION EAST OF IL. TEMPS STILL APPEAR TO COOL BACK TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND STAY SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...A MAJOR UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE. MODELS DIFFER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON WITH HANDLING NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. GFS/UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE SIMILAR WITH KEEPING LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED QPF SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL FROM I-64 SOUTH. NAM IS THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH MUCH FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AS FAR NORTH AS I-80. WILL LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS THOUGH GFS QPF MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... DECENT SHORT WAVE DEPICTED BY RADAR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL OVER WOODFORD COUNTY AND MOVING ENE. AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS SPINNING AROUND IT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ILX FORECAST AREA NORTH OF I-72. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS RECENTLY MOVED NE ACROSS MCLEAN COUNTY. AREAS OF FOG OVER SW IL SW OF SPRINGFIELD AND AROUND EFFINGHAM TO SALEM WHERE THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER. 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NW WI WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NW MO. 997 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST WEST OF PITTSBURGH IN FAR EASTERN OHIO. TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S OVER WEST CENTRAL IL FROM JACKSONVILLE WEST WHERE THERE WAS SOME CLEARING AND LOWER 40S EAST OF I-55. SHORT WAVE EXITS NE OF AREA BY MIDDAY TAKING RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS IL TODAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA INTO NW IL ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO MINUS 6 TO 8C NW BY SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NW WHICH CLIMB LITTLE FROM CURRENT TEMPS...THEN FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER SE IL. THIS WILL BE THE 44TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE DEC 22. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO IL BY DAWN SAT AND TO KEEP CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT AND SAT. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND DEEPENS LOW PRESSURE NNE FROM AL PA BY SUNSET SAT. THIS TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST BUT STILL KEEPS MOST QPF EAST OF IL WITH SNOW LIKELY OVER EASTERN INDIANA EAST OF INDY SAT. TEMPS COOL BACK TO NORMAL SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOLING A BIT EACH RUN. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST OF IL SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLOUDS DECREASING FROM THE WEST...BUT STAYING SEASONABLY COOL WITH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AGAIN. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... EXTENDED MODELS TAKE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY BY MON. NAM IS FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER THE MODELS AND LAST RUNS WITH IT LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF. DISCOUNTED THE NAM FOR NOW SINCE AN OUTLIER...THOUGH GFS QPF MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON AND THINK BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN INTO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP IT SEASONABLY COOL. COULD ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY THU AND SNOW CHANCES LOOKS BETTER NE OF CENTRAL IL OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE STRONGER SHORT WAVES PASS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ HJS/HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1256 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006 .AVIATION... THE RAIN HAS BASICALLY MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BUT THE CHANCES ARE SMALL THAT THEY WOULD HIT SBN AND THEY ARE ALSO WEAKENING. SO HAVE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON DRY. BARELY VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY AT SBN AND FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THIS EVENING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO SBN. LOOKING AT FWA AND TO WHAT IS TO THE WEST OF THERE...MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THERE. THERE IS A MAINLY CLEAR AREA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BUT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN BY THE TIME IT WOULD REACH SBN AND FWA. IF IT WOULDN'T THEN THE CLEAR TIME WOULD NOT LAST THAT LONG. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY 12Z. AS THIS LOW TRACKS BY JUST TO THE EAST OF HERE...IT WILL BRING SNOW TO SBN AND FWA. JUST AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALSO. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 342 AM EST) SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO SO WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE RUC/NAM DUE TO BETTER MESOSCALE RESOLUTION. SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCD MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ACRS ERN MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO/EXTREME NE INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. MEANWHILE...A S/WV ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z...THEN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSE ACRS THE CWFA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACRS THE NRN/WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA...IN WHICH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL JUST HAVE CHC POPS...OR NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN AS DNVA WILL TAKE OVER...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO 30 AND 40 PERCENT AFTER 18Z. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT FCST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON TARGET. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WISCONSIN...SWWD INTO NW IOWA/NRN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE HAVE BEEN DRASTIC MODEL CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z/02 MEAN SOLUTION OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW. JUST 24 HOURS LATER THE 00Z/03 NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES WEST...NOW TAKING THE SURFACE LOW UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS DRASTIC CHANGE...PLUS RECENT VERY POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND PERFORMANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL ITERATIONS CAN REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RUN...THEN CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PAINTS A HIGHLY COMPLEX PICTURE WITH AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET CORE ARCING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER TEXAS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER TEXAS AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS NOW FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO RAPID CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS AND SHARPENS. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z SAT TO WESTERN NY BY 06Z SUN. 00Z/03 ECMWF HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE MUCH FARTHER WEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE GEM IS FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THIS IS A FLIP BACK TO WHAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN ON AND OFF FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW SAT AM ACROSS NW OHIO GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS INITIALLY...OTHERWISE EVENT WILL BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING LOW. OF GREAT CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL GIVEN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW CROSSING A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT ON SAT...BUT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SEEDER/FEEDER LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SAT PM AND SAT NGT GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES. SINCE THIS IS A 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A FEW MODEL RUNS WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BACK TO BACK BEFORE LOCKING INTO A HEADLINE. WILL ONLY OFFER GENERIC SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WORDING IN ZFP. IF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE STRENGTHENING NW WINDS SAT PM AND SAT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING. ON SUNDAY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C. THIS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES RISING TO AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET. SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW SE OF THE LAKE...DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE SUN NGT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT ALL FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. COULD SEE SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED NGT INTO THURSDAY WITH GFS/GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF DEPICT A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWED STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR FRI AND BEYOND. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...98 in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SN/LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH NMRS EMBEDDED SHRTWVS. THE TROF AXIS EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. ONE PROMINENT SHRTWV OVER SW WI AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SNOW OVER NE WI INTO CNTRL UPR MI. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM COMBINED WITH THE QG FORCING HAVE BROUGHT CONVECTIVE SN ELEMENTS WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS. THE STRONGER SHRTWV LIFTING THROUGH WI HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF COLDER AIR INTO W UPR MI WITH BAND OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH 900-800 FGEN EDGING ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD. TONIGHT... FCST LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION AND SHORT TERM TRENDS. AS THE WI SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE EXPECT AN AREA OF SNOW...MODERATE OR BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO AFFECT THE THE E HLF OF THE CWA. WHILE THE OVERALL PCPN AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MAY BE A BIT HEAVY...AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LINGER COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 0.20-0.30 INCH RANGE. SNOW/WATER RATIO WITH THE SYNOPTIC SNOW NEAR THE WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AOA 12/1...SO KEPT AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE OVER THE SE. WHILE H8 TEMPS FALLING FROM -7C TO -12C BTWN 00Z-12Z ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR DECENT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...THE GREATER MID LVL DYNAMICS AND UPWARD MOTION REMAIN FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO...LES AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED A BIT. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS STILL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WEST WHICH WILL BE FAVORED BY THE POSITION OF 850-700 THERMAL TROF AND CYCLONIC NRLY FETCH. SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVING INTO THE ERN LAKES DEEPENS NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH H8 TEMPS FALL A BIT FARTHER...INTO THE -12C TO -15C RANGE. SINCE THE FAVORED STRONGER/SLOWER GFS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LONGER...EXPECT MORE FAVORABLE LES CONDITIONS THAN DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WOULD BE MARGINAL FOR PURE LES...LINGERING QVECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE WITH THE DEEP MID LVL TROF INTO SAT EVENING SHOULD COMPENSATE AND KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE LES RATES GOING FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NRLY WINDS. STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO HELP SQUEEZE OUT DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...GOING HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK. SUN...THE GLBL MDLS SUGGEST THAT SHRTWV ENERGY FROM W OF HUDSON BAY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WRN LAKES WHICH MAY KEEP BETTER LES RATES GOING AS H8 TEMPS REMAIN NEAR -14C. STRONG NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT GOING. SO...HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. MON...PER GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...THE DEEP MID/UPR LVL LOW AND THE H8 THERMAL TROF FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE LES TO DIMINISH. TUE-FRI...MDLS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A PROMINENT WRN NOAM RDG AND A TROF IN THE EAST. SOME WEAK LES MAY LINGER TUE AS A CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVES TO THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN WAS PREFERRED WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD THE GRT LAKES WED INTO THU...WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SILL SUPPORTS -SN CHANCES BY WED. EVENTUALLY LES WILL SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATER THU INTO FRI AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE...GFS MAY BE TOO FAR S WITH THE MID LVL LOW BY THU/FRI. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ005-MIZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001- MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-MIZ009. $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 300 PM MST FRI FEB 3 2006 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...AND CUTTING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN INTO CWFA. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A FEW PRODUCING A QUICK 1-2 INCHES. ALSO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WHERE LAST FEW RUNS OF RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING LI IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE. SATELLITE SCANS HAVE SHOWN CU RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION. RIDGE MOVES OUT SATURDAY EVENING AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON SUNDAY GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. EXPECT A LESSER CHANCE OF SNOW ON MONDAY AS TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. EXTENDED...AREA WILL BE WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP TROF IN EASTERN U.S. UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN EXTENDED MODELS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS HAS A RANGE OF 15-25 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. && .AVIATION...AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM KHEI-KPHP-KSFD WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ sd