FXUS04 KWBC 261005 PAA QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 505 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2003 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JAN 27/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... FOR THE MOST PART...THE PRELIM DAY1 QPF WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THE 0000 UTC AND 0600 UTC MODEL MASS FIELD FCSTS WERE VERY SIMILAR. ...ERN U.S... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHRTWV ENERGY DIGGING SEWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN STATES BY MONDAY MRNG. THE DYNAMIC LIFT ASOCTD WITH THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER LGT PCPN AMTS ALONG THE ASOCTD ARCTIC FRONT PRESSING SWD AND EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE ETA AND GFS QPFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN AS WELL AS COVERAGE AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE AT THE CURRENT TIME. ...N CNTRL U.S... THE ETA AND GFS BOTH GENERATE A LGT WAA PCPN PATTERN AHEAD OF A SHRTWV TROF WORKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PSN. STG LLVL SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT RATHER MEAGER PW INTO A RETREATING STG BAROCLINIC ZONE SUPPORTING THE EVENT. THE ETA AND GFS QPFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE ON AMTS AND COVERAGE. ...WRN GULF COAST/LWR MS VLY... THE 0000 UTC ETA SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE SO FAR ON THE ONGOING PCPN ACROSS THIS REGION. MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAA PCPN ASOCTD WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ADVANCING FM THE SRN PLAINS THRU NWLYFLOW ALOFT. STAYED CLOSE TO THE 0000 UTC ETA QPF HERE. ...NWRN U.S... AN AMPLIFYING NERN PACIFIC SHRTWV TROF WILL WORK TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY THIS MRNG WITH A SGFNT PORTION OF ITS ENERGY EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD AND TEMPORARILY HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE WRN NOAM LONGWV UPPER RIDGE. THE FRONTAL BAND ASOCTD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY MRNG AND PRESS RAPIDLY EWD DURING THE PD BRINGING SGFNT PCPN TOTALS TO MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NW AND THE NRN INTERMTN REGION PER THE ETA AND GFS. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BAROCLINIC BAND WILL WORK ITS WAY SWD TO THE VICINITY OF NRN CA WHERE ANOTHER PIECE OF SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG THRU FAST WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE LIFT TO TRIGGER ADNL MDT TO LCLY HVY PCPN TOTALS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PD. LATEST STLT IMAGERY SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO SHOWING ADNL MID-LAT SHRTWV ENERGY NEAR 145W. FINALLY...ANOTHER IMPULSE IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR VRISL BY MONDAY MRNG WHICH SHOULD BRING ADNL SHWRS TO THE EXTREME PACIFIC NW. DAY 2... RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN SETS UP FOR THIS PERIOD. PACIFIC INFLOW GRADUALLY DECREASES AS RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE BC COAST...SHIFTING MOISTURE NWD INTO WRN CANADA. BIGGEST AMTS IN THE WEST WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 6-12 HRS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED .50 INCH EXCEPT IN ISOLATED OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS. WARM ADVECTION SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ERN NEW ENGLAND IS BRUSHED BY WRN FRINGE OF POWERFUL NORTH ATLANTIC STORM. DAY 3... STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AK PANHANDLE PUSHING A POTENT FRONTAL BNDRY AHEAD OF IT THAT WILL AFFECT BC...WA...AND NWRN OR THIS PERIOD. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ON VANCOUVER ISLAND BUT THERE COULD STILL BE .50 TO 1 INCH AMTS IN THE OLYMPICS OF WA. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL STREAK THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH LIGHT PCPN. WARM ADVECTION PCPN EXPANDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING FRONT. HOWEVER AMTS STILL SHOULD NOT EXCEED .25 INCH. KORTY/MAUSSER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov 24HR QP VT 27/12Z 0.01 504653 501643 498637 494630 491628 483626 474624 466625 461626 457629 440636 421645 411650 407654 405658 403680 402685 400689 394698 357727 349735 346738 345742 344747 345751 348753 350756 358759 367759 371759 371763 373770 377772 385773 386775 384778 381781 376788 370798 366806 362813 354832 353837 353840 355842 358845 360851 361858 363862 367864 373864 374869 375873 376886 381897 384900 387900 388897 390893 393889 398883 412868 419871 424873 428874 435873 441871 452867 455868 458870 458872 459884 460891 461899 464903 468905 473903 476907 480905 484899 486894 490883 491878 491870 490862 489859 482850 477844 465822 457811 452805 448801 447797 447786 449773 452762 456753 460743 469721 473709 477699 479695 483692 494681 498674 501666 503659 504653 0.01 550154 546139 545133 542126 534112 528101 532098 539099 543098 546092 547089 549083 550078 547069 544063 537053 530043 523034 521029 520023 518016 518011 519009 526009 533007 540004 543002 547998 548988 546982 543973 540968 532957 528952 523948 514942 504939 494933 478924 459913 448908 439906 429903 420902 413905 411907 405911 403916 402921 404926 406930 410942 413950 415955 419970 423984 427993 435004 439009 441015 443026 444030 450041 459051 465059 468065 468071 466079 465086 465097 463097 460091 459085 456077 453072 448071 444073 445078 449084 449088 446089 439088 432088 428086 425085 422087 421095 415104 412109 409112 404116 406121 410125 413130 412139 409144 404148 401154 402159 403160 407165 409176 412182 412189 407198 402202 396201 390199 383199 382201 383204 387208 395218 383228 384234 387239 396249 400251 406253 416255 431259 437259 441259 453257 464257 468257 473259 477261 483267 494283 497288 500291 505293 508294 510297 528246 526243 523242 520240 518234 516228 513223 508217 506212 504206 504205 507204 510204 515208 518212 522216 526220 531224 534225 535225 0.01 482196 483190 481186 473184 470183 467186 464187 461190 457194 453201 450204 450207 454207 456205 459202 461203 466204 472202 478197 482196 0.01 438843 437835 434828 431828 427827 425830 422834 420839 419843 417849 416853 418854 424852 430851 435848 438843 0.01 419076 420068 418062 415058 412056 407053 404052 398053 397057 398062 399068 397072 398077 404077 409080 412080 415079 419076 0.01 326938 327932 326926 325921 322916 314904 311900 308898 301896 296896 294895 290896 288900 288909 285916 276929 254946 249952 245959 238969 239980 241990 243996 247002 252007 259012 265012 270013 275012 279010 278007 272001 268997 268992 269989 271981 273973 276971 280970 288973 295975 301974 304972 315961 319956 323950 325943 326938 0.25 475659 475654 472652 469653 463655 460657 455660 451665 450671 454677 456680 457684 458688 460690 463689 468685 471682 475675 476670 475664 475659 0.25 529194 527185 525177 522171 517163 512158 507154 500150 498149 495144 492138 487133 475127 471127 469131 469133 465132 461131 455134 453142 450144 446143 442139 438138 435140 434146 434151 436159 442170 445178 441182 439190 441193 446193 453193 457187 462184 464180 464174 479176 484180 491183 496186 502186 506188 512194 518200 523202 524202 528198 529194 0.25 513281 516274 517267 517259 516255 513247 511236 509231 506228 504224 503218 500209 497205 492203 483203 475205 470208 467210 461211 447214 431215 415226 415221 414215 409216 405218 405223 403228 400229 395229 393231 393234 394239 399245 405248 412247 419249 427250 435250 450246 465245 470246 475248 482253 492268 497276 503282 507284 510284 513281 0.25 497158 497154 496154 494151 491150 488149 488148 486145 483143 480143 477142 474145 474146 474146 477148 479149 481151 482152 485153 488153 491156 492157 493159 496159 497158 0.25 483231 483227 483227 480226 480226 480227 482231 482231 483231 0.25 453230 453230 450229 448229 450230 453230 453230 0.25 463169 460167 459164 458163 457164 456168 457171 460171 463169 0.25 452118 454113 453109 450105 447103 441101 435103 432104 426107 424111 423115 424119 426123 429121 432119 438117 443121 446122 449120 452118 0.25 314934 315927 314921 311915 308912 304913 304916 304923 303926 302931 300936 298940 297944 301945 307944 309941 312938 314934 0.25 261969 262966 262963 259962 258960 256958 254960 253961 251963 250965 249966 248968 247970 246971 246974 247975 250975 253976 253976 256977 258976 259975 260972 261971 261969 0.50 512275 514269 515262 512252 507235 503229 500218 497211 489207 484206 480206 473209 467212 461215 455215 448217 441217 434218 428220 425222 426225 426228 426231 423234 420233 416230 413227 413219 410218 408221 405232 399233 396236 398241 403245 409244 417246 426247 438245 451242 459241 466239 471241 478245 483249 488256 498270 502277 506279 509279 512275 0.50 522192 522187 521182 518177 515171 510167 506165 502164 497165 494165 490163 482156 472150 467145 465144 460146 459147 457151 455154 452153 445150 442150 440152 441157 445162 448169 452180 452184 453185 457184 462180 462177 459175 456176 453174 452169 455160 455158 458156 464160 467165 471169 474168 478170 483174 488175 495176 507182 511187 514190 520193 522192 0.50 490238 492234 491233 490229 489228 486226 483224 481222 478222 475223 473224 471225 469227 471231 473231 476232 479234 480235 481237 484239 487239 490238 490238 0.50 483134 483134 480133 478133 475133 475133 474137 474137 475137 477134 480135 483134 483134 0.50 457228 456227 453226 452226 450226 447227 444227 443228 441228 438229 437230 435231 432232 431232 431234 434235 437235 439235 440234 443233 446233 446233 449233 452233 455231 456230 457228 0.50 441108 441108 438108 436108 438110 441109 441108 1.00 503238 501233 499228 498223 496218 493217 491215 488212 485211 479211 476211 476216 479215 481217 487221 490222 492225 494231 497235 499238 503238 1.00 463221 463220 460219 457218 455217 453218 454221 457221 460222 463221 463221 1.00 450238 449237 446236 445237 446237 448238 450238 1.00 453222 451220 448220 447220 448223 451223 453222 1.00 427243 428239 428239 425237 422236 419235 417233 414233 411232 409234 407235 405236 407238 410239 412240 415241 418242 421243 424243 427243 427243 1.00 404240 404237 401237 400239 401240 403241 404240 24HR QP VT 28/12Z 0.01 564893 561910 561920 565928 568939 566953 565963 562973 559979 551987 538987 521980 514977 509975 505974 503976 500982 496984 493983 490979 489975 487970 484966 480962 474959 462954 450949 436945 425941 420938 415933 411930 407923 398910 394903 391893 389889 390882 396869 401863 404855 404845 405837 407832 412826 414821 410818 403815 392808 386801 386797 391794 399790 411790 430797 441798 447799 453798 460798 467800 474803 477805 480805 490808 502810 509812 531813 549816 558830 558836 0.01 456686 474677 488671 495663 497651 493633 481612 472600 464597 454605 448615 444630 442637 441644 438652 435656 432663 429671 424680 416691 413704 422711 433710 441698 450688 456686 0.01 526252 518234 513224 508216 503208 495200 486198 478200 469200 456206 447207 444204 451197 457188 463176 471173 483178 492183 497185 500188 506194 513203 523217 534224 542198 541188 537179 533171 528164 522158 517154 514152 506147 500142 491133 485128 481126 476125 473123 471118 468108 467103 465098 462093 454080 449073 445066 441055 430025 423002 419992 413985 407987 403999 401012 404028 408040 407046 404049 401050 396052 386058 379070 379080 382088 387090 390090 395087 397087 401090 401096 396102 391105 389106 386110 379122 379131 378143 378148 376151 374162 373170 370177 366184 365191 373203 379209 385212 392224 396231 397234 400237 408237 415234 430234 441247 451252 457258 472272 487285 490289 494292 501297 507301 0.25 517268 518264 517259 515253 510244 505234 498225 496224 493225 489227 480228 477230 475232 473237 475242 480245 485249 488253 494263 500271 502272 505272 507268 512269 515269 517268 0.25 447105 442098 435092 430089 425089 423091 422095 421101 418104 413106 406110 404113 405116 408119 420123 425129 427134 426139 424141 420149 418156 417165 416179 418185 423188 428189 432181 437169 440160 441152 436144 433136 434127 440117 444112 447105 0.25 409061 403062 398066 397071 400074 407075 410075 416073 420068 419065 415062 409061 0.25 392153 392149 390149 388152 387155 388158 390159 391157 392153 0.50 433112 433108 432107 429106 428108 428112 429113 432113 433112 24HR QP VT 29/12Z 0.01 347918 358910 369893 375889 381889 385892 392896 400893 408883 415874 424870 431871 437871 445873 453879 456892 460903 467907 476905 483894 490871 502845 508829 523811 536792 539765 529741 516729 499716 475714 449718 425736 386777 372794 348823 338837 335843 331850 328859 325867 322874 319883 311915 310919 310926 311929 314930 318927 329914 347918 0.01 541192 538184 524164 510151 498139 489130 480121 475115 473106 465098 459093 451090 441089 429096 420105 421113 430123 441134 449148 452155 454160 454167 450175 444186 442199 439209 436217 433232 432237 432253 440266 462273 490295 500303 506306 527252 525247 525247 523242 522240 520237 519235 518232 516229 516228 513223 513223 514221 516223 518225 519226 522229 524231 524232 527236 529238 529238 0.01 413964 412953 410941 408934 406929 402929 399936 399948 399955 400966 400972 402977 406983 410983 413979 413968 413964 0.01 413068 412063 409060 401056 392060 389061 384061 374060 369059 365061 364065 365069 368073 370076 372081 373087 373094 372108 376132 376138 378144 381147 386149 391145 392138 393124 389101 389096 392090 396083 399079 404076 411072 413068 0.25 524261 521251 518244 510229 505221