AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 238 PM MST MON NOV 14 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY) ...WELL ADVERTISED WEATHER SYSTEM TO BLAST THROUGH CO TNGT... CURRENTLY...AS OF EARLY THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME PICKING UP CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. WIND FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN WAS WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE LIKELY BEING TRAPPED GIVEN THE ROLL/ROTOR CLOUDS ALONG OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...BY MID AFTN THE EXIT REGION OF THE 120-150KT ULJ WAS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. REALLY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED A MOD-STRONG STABLE LAYER AT MOUNTAIN TOP AND THE BRUTE FORCE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM HAS NOT MATERIALIZED...YET. WE HAVE RECEIVED SPOTTER REPORTS OF GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH IN THE UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND 70 MPH ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. CERTAINLY NOT VERY WIDESPREAD...YET. ONLY GETTING GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS PER RAWS AND AWOS SENSORS. REGIONAL RADAR ANIMATION SHOWING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN WY...NRN CO...AND WRN NE. THE "SNOW MACHINE" HAS CONTINUED FOR THE N CNTRL/CNTRL MOUNTAINS GIVE THE RATHER VIGOROUS AND MOIST NWLY FLOW. TNGT...IT WILL BE A REAL CHALLENGE WITH THE HIGH WIND FORECAST AND WHAT TO DO. CURRENTLY...BARELY OR NOT EVEN REACHING THE HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAIN WAVE/MIXING EVENT THIS AFTN AND EVE... HOWEVER...IT IS SPOTTY IN SOME LOCATIONS. HATE DROPPING WARNINGS WHEN SPOTTY LOCATIONS ARE REACHING CRITERIA. IT APPEARS ANY POTENTIAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL NEED TO COME WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVE...BUT THAT MAY NOT EVEN LAST THAT LONG. POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO 50KTS WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FROPA. THE POTENTIAL HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND NOT BE CONTINUOUS ACROSS SERN CO OR OUR ERN MOUNTAINS. PRETTY GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL H8-H7 H7-H6 IMPLIED UPWARD FORCING...POSITIVE VALUES...WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SERN CO. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE MOISTURE...UP TO H5... AND THIS COMBINED WITH VERTICAL INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO SOME HEALTHY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CORES. CROSS SECTIONS NOT SHOWING THAT GREAT OF CSI POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT...AS WE ARE NOW PROGGED TO BE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE ULJ AND MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERTICAL. POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-STRONG SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH COULD CREATE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN THE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CORES BETWEEN 7PM AND 12AM TONIGHT...IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER. I HAVE PAINTED 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE FOR TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SERN CO SHOULD SHIFT FROM N TO S TNGT...SNOW AMOUNTS AND CONDITIONS DO NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...BUT FOR A BRIEF TIME IT COULD LOOK PRETTY NASTY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WIND. PLAN TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WITH ANOTHER 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND LOW VISIBILITIES TNGT. TUE...WELL ADVERTISED MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S/40S ACROSS SERN CO AND 20S/30S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. KEPT A LOW POP/WX POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUTAINS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. ALSO...KEPT A LOW POP/WX POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE SW AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS BASED ON GJT'S FORECAST. THE H5-H3 LAYER HUMIDITY LEVELS BECOME <20%...SO TOUGH TO GET INSTABILITY CLOUDS GOING. NEXT ROUND FOR MARGINAL HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SERN CO PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 50KT GUSTS STILL DOABLE...WHICH WILL BE MORE OR LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING WINDS. METZE .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM APPEAR TO BE ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY SURGES PUSHING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH EACH SURGE. MOST RECENT EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT CWFA SHOULD BE UNDER A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM WITH NEXT IN A SERIES OF SURFACE NORTHERLY SURGES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE POTENT SURGE SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED INHERITED DRY FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME LOW GRADE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEXT MONDAY WHERE THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. I ALSO EXPECT A VERY CHILLY START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF THE LONG TERM ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY. FINALLY...IT MAY GET A BIT WINDY AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR COZ058>061-063. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR COZ062-072>088. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY FOR COZ089- 093>099. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECASTS ON TRACK. MORNING FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATING & HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE WORDING. UPPED POP FOR KPFN ZONE TO 20% PER FORECAST ANALYSIS & EXPECTING SIMILAR TREND AS YESTERDAY WITH MOISTURE INFLUX & WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING OVER NORTHERN MS...NW AL TO EASTERN TN. SHORT-RANGE MODELS STILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT MAINLY SE AL & EASTERN FL PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EXPECTED DAY-TIME HEATING... MOISTURE INFLUX (TAE SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.15 INCHES & MAINLY IN SURFACE TO 10K FT LEVEL)...& WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CAN'T RULE OUT LATER UPDATE FOR SMALL CHANCE OVER ENTIRE CWA. OTHERWISE TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS. COASTAL WATERS REMAIN 5-10 KTS WITH 2 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE...WHILE JUST A BIT HIGHER OFFSHORE. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. .AVIATION...VFR TODAY WITH ONLY A VCSH CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KDHN & KPFN. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT ALL TAFS TODAY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MENTION. SE-E WIND FLOW MAINLY 5-10 MPH. EXPECTING SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT ALL TAF SITES. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MCT LONG TERM/MARINE...FOURNIER && .PREV DISCUSSION... 138 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .SYNOPSIS... THE 04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EAST TEXAS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM... THE 00 UTC GFS...NAM...AND UKMET REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.) WILL SOON STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN- MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE ARE SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS AND WEAK LIFT. THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COVER A LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND THAT HAS CERTAINLY BEEN THE CASE FOR ALL OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE HIGHEST POP WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ZONES (40 PERCENT) TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POP. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WE EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LONG- LASTING DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THUS THE FOG WILL TEND TO BE RADIATION FOG AND PROBABLY NOT ADVECTION FOG. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. && .AVIATION... WITH WINDS LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS REST OF OVERNIGHT...ALREADY AOB 5SM NRN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH OZARK DOWN TO 1/4SM IN SLY FLOW. RUC80 SFC COND PRES DEF IMPLIES THAT LOW VSBYS TO ALSO SPREAD W OF ATLC COAST TO IMPACT MNLY ERN MOST GA/SE BIG BEND. THUS FORECAST WILL SHOW BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AT ALL BUT PFN. AFTER 8-9 AM...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CU FIELD DEVELOP WITH VFR CEILINGS AT AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NWRN AREAS INCLUDING DHN AND PFN. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 82 59 80 61 / 05 10 10 20 PANAMA CITY 81 64 80 64 / 10 10 20 30 DOTHAN 82 62 80 61 / 20 10 20 40 ALBANY 82 59 81 61 / 10 10 20 30 VALDOSTA 82 59 82 59 / 05 10 20 20 CROSS CITY 83 59 83 62 / 10 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 935 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .UPDATE...WILL NEED TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST FOR REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON. FROM LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE 12Z RUC...APPEARS THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO NORTH GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER. FURTHER SOUTH POPS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SOUTHERN BOUNDARY TO THE MORE STEADY SHOWERS WHICH WILL NOT REACH MUCH FUTHER SOUTH THAN ABOUT ROME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PROGGED TO STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF GEORGIA THIS MORNING...THEN DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS STAYING NORTH OF GEORGIA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT STILL LOOK FOR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH...CLOSEST TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LATEST RUN OF MODELS STILL SLOWING SECOND STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS BRING FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOUNDARY NEAR AN ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. NONETHELESS WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND WITH BEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CHANCES FOR THUNDER PRETTY WEAK DURING THE PERIOD. BEST INSTABILITY INDICATED NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. MODELS DO INDICATED LIFTED INDICES AROUND A MINUS ONE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER THEN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) FRONT PUSHING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK. EXTENDED PROGS SHOW THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. LATEST GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS (MAINLY ACROSS NORTH SECTIONS) FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 73 58 72 52 / 30 20 30 60 ATHENS 75 56 70 58 / 20 20 20 60 GAINESVILLE 70 56 68 53 / 30 20 30 70 ROME 73 58 72 53 / 50 40 40 80 COLUMBUS 78 59 78 58 / 20 10 20 60 MACON 79 58 78 59 / 20 10 20 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && .AVIATION... LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY 3000 TO 6000 FT CEILINGS WITH SHRA MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRA AROUND NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT MORE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS STAY NORTH OF THE ATL AREA TODAY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TSRA OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOTHING MAJOR. VSBYS WILL BE UP AND DOWN THIS MORNING WITH HZ AND BR MOVING IN AND OUT. WILL SEE MAINLY 4 TO 6SM WITH A SOME ISOLATED LOWER SPOTS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 14Z-16Z SE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. WINDS SHOULD BE SE ALL DAY 5 TO 10KT. && $$ ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1020 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .UPDATE... WILL UPDATE ZONES AROUND 1045 PM EST OR SO AS RAIN IS QUICKLY EXITING NORTHEAST...AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE SMALL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT...AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE SRN CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AVIATION... FCST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE REVOLVES AROUND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN/SHOWERS. AT 22Z..SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WARM FRONT FROM NRN ARKANSAS ..EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SRN IL...CNTRL INDIANA AND SRN OHIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM...MOIST ASCENT WAS OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS COMPONENT...COMBINED WITH AN UPR LVL S/WV PASSING ACRS NRN IL...NRN IN...AND SRN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING. RUC40 MODEL INDICATED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACRS SRN IL/SRN IN ATTM...AND THERE WERE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THERE. THIS INSTABILITY IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE SRN/SERN CWFA THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE...RESULTING IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THERE ALSO COULD BE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. THEN...A STRONG UPR LVL H5 LOW WILL PIVOT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM...MOIST AIR AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN PCPN. THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A SHOWERY PCPN...AND GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APCHING 1.4 INCHES...SOME LOWER VSBYS IN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO...THERE WILL BE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL ONLY INCLUDE CB CLOUD WORDING ATTM FOR THE TAF SITES...BUT LATER SHIFTS/TAF ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE H5 UPR LVL LOW WILL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WRAP AROUND MSTR AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCES. SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NAM QUICKLY CATCHES ONTO INTENSIFICATION OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND WILL FOLLOW WITH SIMILAR GFS ADDING TO TIMING CONFIDENCE AS WELL.AREA OF RAIN QUICKLY EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST. RAFL ASSOCIATED WITH MO SHORT WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND STRONG ISENT 300K LIFT/SATURATION TAPPING OVER 8J/KG AIRMASS OVER MID MS VLY. CPDS QUICKLY FALL FROM OVER 100 MB TO LT 30 MB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. WILL NOT OFFER TOO MUCH TIMING DETAIL THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE/DEVELOP NORTHEAST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. 180KT UL JET DIGGING INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES TO FUEL STRONG LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS. DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST OK AT 12Z TUE TO NEAR ORD 00Z WED. EXTREME 0-1KM HELICITIES ON ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2 IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LONG/CURVED HODO IN 60-80KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...LENDS TOWARD ENHANCED TORNADO RISK ESPECIALLY 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. LACK OF CAPE WITH MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG ONLY LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE DPS INTO MID 60S ACROSS OHIO VALLEY WITH NEAR 60 INTO SOUTHERN CWA ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP OVERCOME. 65 TO 70 KT 8H JET WITH COLD FRONT POINTS TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE...MORE FALL/WINTER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. AS DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM...DEFINITE SVR THREAT WILL EXIST...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS MAINLY EAST. NAM IS MUCH FASTER PUSHING SQUALL LINE THROUGH WITH GFS SOMEWHAT SLOWER. REGARDLESS...PRECIP LOOKS TO WIND DOWN BY 5Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY SLOT WORKING IN BEHIND THE LINE THAT COULD VERY WELL BRING ANY PRECIP TO AN END THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WOULD BE WITH WRAP AROUND MSTR AND LAKE EFFECT AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. 850 MB FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SW THROUGH 00Z THURS...SO MAIN LAKE EFFECT CONCERN WOULD BE PARTS OF BERRIEN COUNTY AND FURTHER NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT LAYOUT OF POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS COLDER AIR...MODELS ALSO SLOWER ON ITS ARRIVAL...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES NOT DROPPING TO 1290 M UNTIL THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME ON WEDS. THIS WARRANTS ADJUSTING PRECIP TYPE TO A MIX IN ALL AREAS VS STRAIGHT SNOW. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND THIS WARMING TREND MAY NEED TO CONTINUE IN THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE AS GUIDANCE HAS MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 40. SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL DROP IN EVOLVING FLOW...WITH THE FIRST ONE SOMETIME FRI/FRI NGT AND ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN HINT AT FIRST SYSTEM CLOSING OFF A UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A WET /WHITE/ WEEKEND. WITH UNCERTANTITY IN EXACT EVOLUTION OF PATTERN...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. ENOUGH ON THE PLATE BEFORE THEN TO SORT OUT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH MODERATION TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM....FISHER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 620 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .AVIATION... FCST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE REVOLVES AROUND IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN/SHOWERS. AT 22Z..SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WARM FRONT FROM NRN ARKANSAS ..EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SRN IL...CNTRL INDIANA AND SRN OHIO BY 12Z TUESDAY. WARM...MOIST ASCENT WAS OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THIS COMPONENT...COMBINED WITH AN UPR LVL S/WV PASSING ACRS NRN IL...NRN IN...AND SRN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS EVENING. RUC40 MODEL INDICATED SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACRS SRN IL/SRN IN ATTM...AND THERE WERE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THERE. THIS INSTABILITY IS FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE SRN/SERN CWFA THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT KFWA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE...RESULTING IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THERE ALSO COULD BE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. THEN...A STRONG UPR LVL H5 LOW WILL PIVOT EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM...MOIST AIR AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN PCPN. THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A SHOWERY PCPN...AND GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APCHING 1.4 INCHES...SOME LOWER VSBYS IN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO...THERE WILL BE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL ONLY INCLUDE CB CLOUD WORDING ATTM FOR THE TAF SITES...BUT LATER SHIFTS/TAF ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE H5 UPR LVL LOW WILL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WRAP AROUND MSTR AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NAM QUICKLY CATCHES ONTO INTENSIFICATION OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM AND WILL FOLLOW WITH SIMILAR GFS ADDING TO TIMING CONFIDENCE AS WELL.AREA OF RAIN QUICKLY EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST. RAFL ASSOCIATED WITH MO SHORT WAVE ENERGY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND STRONG ISENT 300K LIFT/SATURATION TAPPING OVER 8J/KG AIRMASS OVER MID MS VLY. CPDS QUICKLY FALL FROM OVER 100 MB TO LT 30 MB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. WILL NOT OFFER TOO MUCH TIMING DETAIL THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE/DEVELOP NORTHEAST. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. 180KT UL JET DIGGING INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES TO FUEL STRONG LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS. DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST OK AT 12Z TUE TO NEAR ORD 00Z WED. EXTREME 0-1KM HELICITIES ON ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2 IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LONG/CURVED HODO IN 60-80KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...LENDS TOWARD ENHANCED TORNADO RISK ESPECIALLY 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. LACK OF CAPE WITH MUCAPES AOB 500 J/KG ONLY LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE DPS INTO MID 60S ACROSS OHIO VALLEY WITH NEAR 60 INTO SOUTHERN CWA ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP OVERCOME. 65 TO 70 KT 8H JET WITH COLD FRONT POINTS TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE...MORE FALL/WINTER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. AS DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM...DEFINITE SVR THREAT WILL EXIST...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS MAINLY EAST. NAM IS MUCH FASTER PUSHING SQUALL LINE THROUGH WITH GFS SOMEWHAT SLOWER. REGARDLESS...PRECIP LOOKS TO WIND DOWN BY 5Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW DRY SLOT WORKING IN BEHIND THE LINE THAT COULD VERY WELL BRING ANY PRECIP TO AN END THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WOULD BE WITH WRAP AROUND MSTR AND LAKE EFFECT AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. 850 MB FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SW THROUGH 00Z THURS...SO MAIN LAKE EFFECT CONCERN WOULD BE PARTS OF BERRIEN COUNTY AND FURTHER NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT LAYOUT OF POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS COLDER AIR...MODELS ALSO SLOWER ON ITS ARRIVAL...WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES NOT DROPPING TO 1290 M UNTIL THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME ON WEDS. THIS WARRANTS ADJUSTING PRECIP TYPE TO A MIX IN ALL AREAS VS STRAIGHT SNOW. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND THIS WARMING TREND MAY NEED TO CONTINUE IN THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE AS GUIDANCE HAS MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 40. SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL DROP IN EVOLVING FLOW...WITH THE FIRST ONE SOMETIME FRI/FRI NGT AND ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN HINT AT FIRST SYSTEM CLOSING OFF A UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A WET /WHITE/ WEEKEND. WITH UNCERTANTITY IN EXACT EVOLUTION OF PATTERN...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. ENOUGH ON THE PLATE BEFORE THEN TO SORT OUT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH MODERATION TOWARDS NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM....FISHER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 215 PM MST MON NOV 14 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - THURSDAY) MAIN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG VORT LOBE COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE SUPPORTING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WYOMING. IT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING...BRINGING WIND AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW. TOP DOWN CHARTS OFF THE LATEST RUC YIELD RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD BE SOME VIRGA TO START AS PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS. NAM METEOGRAMS WITH 3 DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS ALSO SHOW RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AS FOR WIND...CLOSELY FOLLOWED LATEST RUN (19Z) OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUC20. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA 03Z-04Z. A BRIEF GUST TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY 25-30KT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WIND ADVISORY SHOULD HANDLE THE OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTIVE VIRGA/RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST WINDS HAVE COME DOWN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA FOR SUSTAINED OR GUSTS. RUC20 AND NGM MOS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS 35-40KTS...WHILE MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF BUFKIT AND 750-800MB WINDS SUGGEST MAXIMUM GUST POTENTIAL OF AROUND 50KTS. TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT THIS TIME...SO LEFT THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THESE PERIODS WITH ACTIVE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GFS ADVERTISING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...BUT DIFFICULT TO FIND ANYTHING IN THE ETA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL APPEAR TOO DRY TO SUPPORT A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY - MONDAY) UPPER PATTERN RATHER STATIC THIS PERIOD...WITH A REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MEAN TROUGH POSITION NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. CHALLENGE WILL BE TO IDENTIFY SHORTWAVES...NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS WANT TO BRING FIRST WAVE THROUGH IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY IN QUESTION AND WILL LEAVE A DRY FORECAST. SECOND WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY PERIOD. GFS MAYBE A LITTLE TOO ROBUST WITH 700MB MOISTURE...AND COMBINED WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY POPS. ANOTHER CONCERN NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE MORE WIND...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET WITH THE SYSTEM...BEST MIXING POTENTIAL ON THE BACKSIDE WOULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN WEST COAST RIDGE IN LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MUCH SLOWER TO BRING HIGHER THICKNESSES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...WITH ENSEMBLE AVERAGE RUNNING 5-10F COLDER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MOS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL RUN WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE MAJORITY AND HAVE ONLY SLOW WARMING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001- KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-KSZ027- KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016- KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079- NEZ080-NEZ081. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081. CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1051 AM MST MON NOV 14 2005 .UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AND ADJUST VARIOUS PARAMETERS. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. AT 1745Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z NAM 18Z POSITION. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND 12Z NAM ANALYSIS I HAVE PULLED THE ADVISORY THAT WAS TO BE IN EFFECT FROM 21Z-01Z TODAY FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT NAM PERFORMANCE HAVE USED IT FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WIND WISE WITH THE RUC FOR DEWPOINTS. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE BALLPARK SO NO CHANGES MADE THERE. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH VERY QUICKLY THIS EVENING HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH SOME PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE IS A 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA FROM WINDS GETTING MIXED DOWN FROM THE SHOWERS OR THE IMMEDIATE PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE A VERY SHORT TERM PROBLEM AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. ON TUESDAY THE LATEST 900-750 WINDS SUGGEST WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET BUT THEY HAVE COME DOWN FROM THE 12Z FORECAST FROM SUNDAY. MET WINDS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE MET AND FOR NOW WE HAVE KEPT THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004- KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041- KSZ042. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016- KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042. NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079-NEZ080-NEZ081. CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 318 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LATE THIS EVENING THE 12Z GFS CRANKS OUT A BUNCH OF QPF ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY CONTAMINATED BY INTENSE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. WE LIKE HPC/S IDEA OF SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION...ONLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND LESS THAN HALF THE 3 INCH QPF IN THE GFS. MAIN ISSUE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...WITH LOTS OF CONVECTION COMPETING FOR IT. WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN SOME WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR TONIGHT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE BAND OF QPF SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG FORCING AND TREMENDOUS WIND FIELDS...A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHES EASTWARD. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY. THE 12Z MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST JUST AFTER 18Z AND WILL END IN THE EAST 00-03Z TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. FOR BREVITY WILL NOT TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT THE POST FRONTAL FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO SAY THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT...SO BASICALLY WENT NEAR THE RUC 00Z TEMPERATURE FOR LOWS. FAVORED THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH LITTLE INSOLATION EXPECTED. THE MET LOOKED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MAV MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FROM THURSDAY ON...WILL BE LOOKING AT A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WITH H50 N TO NW FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE...SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. AS THE HIGH EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IT WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODELS SWING TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY AND THE SECOND ON SUNDAY. THE ONE ON FRIDAY WILL PASS BY DRY WITH MOISTURE REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GULF SHUT OFF. THE SECOND ONE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE PULLED THEM FOR NOW GIVEN DRY ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL HELP REINFORCE THE AT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STUCK CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE LOWS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1058 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .UPDATE... PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SLOWLY ERODING THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDOMINATELY VFR...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. MOST PRECIP REPORTS ARE OF 10SM/-RA...ALTHOUGH DUH/TOL CAME IN AT 03Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITY. PRECIP TYPE STILL A CONCERN...AS 00Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2KFT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER... 03Z TAMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING TO THE NORTH FROM DTW SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED SURFACE LAYER BELOW 870MB...WITH DRY LAYER STILL AROUND 800MB. THIS EARLY INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. HOWEVER HEAVIER PRECIP RETURNS HAVE LEAD TO A MIX WITH SOME GRAUPEL IN HOWELL AND WHITE LAKE. BASED ON EXPECTED DURATION BEFORE WARM ADVECTION PICKS UP FURTHER...WILL HIGHLIGHT MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER...WITH A TIMING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO 00Z RUC13/NAM DEPICTION...IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. && .AVIATION...638 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY... STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ELEVATED LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WORK TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR BELOW 700MB APPARENT ON 22Z/23Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SINCE LAST NIGHT FROM TEXAS THROUGH MISSOURI SUPPORT TIME SECTION AND MOS FORECASTS OF LIFR CIGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DTW/DET OVERNIGHT...AND DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY FARTHER NORTH AND FNT/MBS. BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS THE MAIN SYSTEM GETS GOING OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE STRONG PACIFIC JET CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW STATUS LOOKS TO HOLD TOUGH UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH...WHICH IT SHOULD QUICKLY BREAK UP WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...414 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 A RAINY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN. DESPITE THE DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUCCESSFULLY SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN AS IMPRESSIVE 850 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LIFTS NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE 850 FRONT AND RIGHT ALONG THE SLIGHTLY SPEEDIER 700 MB FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...THUS REMOVED SNOW WORDING INSTEAD TO GO WITH ALL RAIN. WITH GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING HEIGHT BOTH LOWER TO AROUND 2K FEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE QUITE GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1300 METERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OBSERVED A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MIX OVERNIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND 850 FRONT WON'T ALLOW THIS TO LAST VERY LONG. THUS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION SNOW TONIGHT. 850 FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH BY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...BUT A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH SOME WEAK LIFT LINGERING COULD TAP OFF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...414 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED UPSTREAM HEIGHTS AND WIND FIELDS WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY EVENING... WITH STRONG WINDS USHERING VERY COLD AIR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 180KT UPPER JET CORE WAS SHOWN ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS. THIS JET WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 18Z TUES. THE GFS/UKMET/NAM INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NW LOWER MI TUES NIGHT. THE WRFXX AND CANADIAN ARE JUST A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TOWARD THAT OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW. AT THIS TIME... LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER AND STRONG NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT ARE MINOR. A COUPLED UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW THE UPPER WAVE TO AMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY 06Z WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN TUES EVENING. FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WITHIN THE 850-500MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SE MICHIGAN TUES AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SPELL CATEGORICAL PRECIP. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET CORE AROUND 60KTS NOSING INTO SE MICHIGAN...CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO RELY HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE 12 AND 18Z NAM SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG...WITH 925MB LIS AROUND 0C. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE VERY STRONG SHEAR. IF BY CHANCE...A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO ADVECT INTO SE MICHIGAN...THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK THUS CONTINUES TO HAVE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-69 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH 50 TO 55KTS OF WIND DOWN TO 2K FT TUES EVENING THOUGH... EVEN WEAK CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TUES AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE STRAITS REGION... DEEPENING TO AROUND 980MB. GOOD BURST OF SUBSIDENCE LATE WED NIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER BY WED AFTERNOON... SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY EVENT OR PERHAPS ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. SOME MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW ON WED. THIS COUPLED WITH FALLING 850MB TEMPS WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO -14C BY 00Z THU IN WISCONSIN... INSTABILITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE QUITE HIGH. STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD EASILY BRING RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO SE MICHIGAN WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WED EVENING. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA...HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE WAVE DROPPING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO WHERE LAKE EFFECT MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS. A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN COMPARISON TO THE EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS. SINCE ALL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER JET AROUND 150KTS... PREFER THE DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN. THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEEPER SOLUTION... MAY SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN. WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US... WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY. && $$ UPDATE.......BRAVENDER AVIATION.....BRAVENDER SHORT TERM...SHULER LONG TERM....CONSIDINE YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 920 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND TO CORRESPONDINGLY INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING OVER A GOOD PART OF INTERIOR UPPER MICHIGAN WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS NOT COMPLETELY KEEPING THINGS FROM RADIATING. THICKER AC AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN LIFTING INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING MUCH MORE OVER THE EASTERN UP...BUT INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN MAY COOL A FEW MORE DEGREES UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL RH INCREASES AND CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED BY THE RUC AND NAM. THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AND FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW. AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL GIVEN THE FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WHICH IS ADVERTISED...CONFINED TO 3K FEET AND BELOW...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW COULD HELP SQUEEZE OUT SOME DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LIKELY TO REMAIN THERE UNTIL SOUTHEAST FLOW BOOSTS RH AND CLOUDS THICKEN...THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IF ANY DRIZZLE MANAGES TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...SO DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WATCH ALONE AND ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECIDING HOW TO ADJUST THE HEADLINES...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. TRH && .PREV DISCUSSION (LATER PERIODS)... TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER IDEA...IT ALLOWS FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE NE WITH THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL SHOW THE LOW NEAR CHICAGO WITH VARYING INTENSITIES. PREFER THE DEEPER GFS/NAM WHICH BOTH SHOW 994MB AT 00Z IN COMPARISON TO THE UKMET WHICH IS 1001MB. ANOTHER REASON TO PREFER THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE GOING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEEPER SYSTEM. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING HOURS FROM UPSLOPE...THEN AS DEEPER MOISTURE COMES IN IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE LOW MOVING CLOSER...HAVE BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS. THESE LIKELY POPS ARE CONFINED THOUGH TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BECAUSE OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR PREVENTING PRECIP. IN FACT...12Z NAM SUGGESTED LITTLE IF ANY QPF DURING THE DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM CONVECTION AND LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REALLY ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN. TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT 12Z WED...THE TRACK RANGES FROM NEAR STANNARD ROCK FROM THE 12Z RUC13 TO JUST NE OF WHITEFISH POINT BY THE 12Z NAM. ALTHOUGH THIS DIFFERENCE SEEMS SMALL...IT HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P.. FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P....THERE IS NO PROBLEM WITH HAVING SNOW DUE TO DYNAMIC AND ADVECTIVE COOLING PROCESSES IN THE DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HERE...THE QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH...YIELDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. HAVE WENT WITH A 12 TO 1 SNOWFALL RATIO BECAUSE OF THE WETNESS OF THE SNOW (SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN 12000 TO 15000 FT AND A DEEP AGGREGATION LAYER BELOW THAT). LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY DUE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C (LAKE TEMPS ARE +6 TO +8C). FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P....ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO WRAP IN THAT WILL EITHER RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR FLAT OUT RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS PREVENT SINGLING OUT ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS PREDOMINANT AT THIS POINT. ON WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO SNOW BY 12Z. SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE DROPPING -10 TO -12C BY 18Z...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT. NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW SUGGEST MAINLY THE WESTERN U.P. AND AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE BEING AFFECTED. NEXT PROBLEM IS WINDS. SINCE THE LOW MAY BE IN THE UPPER 970S MB FOR PRESSURE...A GALE EVENT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. IN FACT...THE NEW 18Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY A STORM EVENT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE (ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF). NOTE...18Z NAM...GIVEN THAT IS DEEPER...BRINGS MUCH MORE QPF INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED BE SNOW. CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. MAY BECOME VERY DANGEROUS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WET SNOW POSSIBLY COMING DOWN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR AND N WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -15 TO -20C. PROBLEM IS AT THE SAME TIME...THIS COLD AIR IS VERY DRY...WHICH MAY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN...HAVE LOWERED MINS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK FROM WEDNESDAY...GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP DUE TO THE LINGERING GRADIENT FROM WEDNESDAY\S LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL REALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MINNESOTA. WARM ADVECTION ALSO KICKS IN HELPING TO RAISE 850MB TEMPS TO -10 TO -13C BY 21Z. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPS ARE STILL COLD SO EXPECTING HIGHS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOWING A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SETUP. THEREFORE...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...GIVING ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. SHRTWV TROUGH COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGING OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH STRONGER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST SHRTWV. THE SECOND MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY WARM TO -4 TO -6C. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS NOT THAT STRONG...ONLY DROPPING THE 850MB TEMPS TO -8C...THESE ARE STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT IN NW FLOW AREAS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON (GIVEN NW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS). SHRTWV THAT MOVED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE TURNED INTO A FULL-LATITUDE EASTERN TROUGH BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION SETS IN AGAIN LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED OUT BY A STRONG SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS SHRTWV WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT AND POTENTIAL FOR PATTERNS TO END UP BEING SLOWER...HAVE NEGLECTED TO THROW IN POPS AT THIS POINT. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OUT OF THE EXTENDED WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO APPROX +4C. AJ && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUE THROUGH WED MIZ009>011. WINTER STORM WATCH TUE NIGHT AND WED MIZ001>005-084. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 415 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON... .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS TO BE EXPECTED WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND A STRUNG OUT SHRTWV FROM CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SE IDAHO. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SHRTWV NOTED BY INCREASED DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IS LOCATED OVER SE IDAHO. RIGHT ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SHRTWV...12Z RAOBS SHOWED 250MB WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 130-160 KT...GREATEST FROM THE CASCADES TO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...NOTED BY 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 35KT AT BIS AND ABR AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1 MB/HR. THIS MAX IN PRESSURE FALLS IS LOCATED NEAR GRAND FORKS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ON THE ORDER OF 2-3MB/HR. THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1003MB LOW IN NW NEBRASKA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURES ARE ALSO RISING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE LOW (3 MB/HR OVER WYOMING)...DUE TO A 1038MB HIGH LOCATED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA BUILDING IN. CLOSER TO HOME...CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. OTHER THAN FOR LOW CLOUDS COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HEADING INTO THE EASTERN U.P....NEAREST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SW MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THE REASON FOR THIS IS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF ONTARIO. 12Z GRB AND APX SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-30C FROM 900-500MB. ESE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BRING THIS DRY AIR INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...12Z APX SOUNDING DID INDICATE A QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BELOW 900MB. TONIGHT...DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SHRTWV OVER IDAHO...THAT SHRTWV WILL DIG PRETTY FAR SOUTH...AND BY 12Z IT IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT OF THE DIGGING...THE LOW THAT IS OVER NEBRASKA IS PULLED SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND MOVES TO NEAR MIAMI OKLAHOMA BY 12Z TUE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL END UP DIGGING INTO NORTH DAKOTA...DEVELOPING A LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS BY 12Z TUE. UPPER MICHIGAN WILL NOT FEEL MUCH OF THE EFFECTS FROM EITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS YET EXCEPT FOR MORE HIGH CLOUDS. BY SUNRISE...SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUD OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS MAY PUSH NORTHWARD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT WITH ALL OF THE DRY AIR NOTED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS...MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL NOT HAVE TOPS GREATER THAN 5000 FT. SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUD MAY EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS QUICKER TOO DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE RUC/NAM SHOWS. SINCE IT IS UPSLOPING...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER IDEA...IT ALLOWS FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE NE WITH THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BY 00Z...THE GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL SHOW THE LOW NEAR CHICAGO WITH VARYING INTENSITIES. PREFER THE DEEPER GFS/NAM WHICH BOTH SHOW 994MB AT 00Z IN COMPARISON TO THE UKMET WHICH IS 1001MB. ANOTHER REASON TO PREFER THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE GOING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEEPER SYSTEM. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING HOURS FROM UPSLOPE...THEN AS DEEPER MOISTURE COMES IN IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE LOW MOVING CLOSER...HAVE BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS. THESE LIKELY POPS ARE CONFINED THOUGH TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BECAUSE OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR PREVENTING PRECIP. IN FACT...12Z NAM SUGGESTED LITTLE IF ANY QPF DURING THE DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM CONVECTION AND LAKE MICHIGAN WILL REALLY ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN. TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT 12Z WED...THE TRACK RANGES FROM NEAR STANNARD ROCK FROM THE 12Z RUC13 TO JUST NE OF WHITEFISH POINT BY THE 12Z NAM. ALTHOUGH THIS DIFFERENCE SEEMS SMALL...IT HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P.. FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P....THERE IS NO PROBLEM WITH HAVING SNOW DUE TO DYNAMIC AND ADVECTIVE COOLING PROCESSES IN THE DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HERE...THE QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH...YIELDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. HAVE WENT WITH A 12 TO 1 SNOWFALL RATIO BECAUSE OF THE WETNESS OF THE SNOW (SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN 12000 TO 15000 FT AND A DEEP AGGREGATION LAYER BELOW THAT). LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY DUE TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND -6C (LAKE TEMPS ARE +6 TO +8C). FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P....ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO WRAP IN THAT WILL EITHER RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR FLAT OUT RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS PREVENT SINGLING OUT ONE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS PREDOMINANT AT THIS POINT. ON WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO SNOW BY 12Z. SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE DROPPING -10 TO -12C BY 18Z...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT. NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW SUGGEST MAINLY THE WESTERN U.P. AND AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE BEING AFFECTED. NEXT PROBLEM IS WINDS. SINCE THE LOW MAY BE IN THE UPPER 970S MB FOR PRESSURE...A GALE EVENT ON BOTH LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN IS LIKELY. IN FACT...THE NEW 18Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY A STORM EVENT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE (ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF). NOTE...18Z NAM...GIVEN THAT IS DEEPER...BRINGS MUCH MORE QPF INTO THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED BE SNOW. CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. MAY BECOME VERY DANGEROUS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WET SNOW POSSIBLY COMING DOWN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR AND N WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN CAUSING 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -15 TO -20C. PROBLEM IS AT THE SAME TIME...THIS COLD AIR IS VERY DRY...WHICH MAY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO WITH THE COLDER AIR COMING IN...HAVE LOWERED MINS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR. SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK FROM WEDNESDAY...GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP DUE TO THE LINGERING GRADIENT FROM WEDNESDAY\S LOW...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL REALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MINNESOTA. WARM ADVECTION ALSO KICKS IN HELPING TO RAISE 850MB TEMPS TO -10 TO -13C BY 21Z. HOWEVER...THESE TEMPS ARE STILL COLD SO EXPECTING HIGHS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOWING A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SETUP. THEREFORE...COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE. DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...GIVING ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. SHRTWV TROUGH COMING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGING OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH STRONGER SHRTWV MOVES SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST SHRTWV. THE SECOND MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING A LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS ONLY WARM TO -4 TO -6C. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS NOT THAT STRONG...ONLY DROPPING THE 850MB TEMPS TO -8C...THESE ARE STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT IN NW FLOW AREAS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON (GIVEN NW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS). SHRTWV THAT MOVED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE TURNED INTO A FULL-LATITUDE EASTERN TROUGH BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION SETS IN AGAIN LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED OUT BY A STRONG SHRTWV IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS SHRTWV WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...MOVING ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT AND POTENTIAL FOR PATTERNS TO END UP BEING SLOWER...HAVE NEGLECTED TO THROW IN POPS AT THIS POINT. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OUT OF THE EXTENDED WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO APPROX +4C. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUE THROUGH WED MIZ009>011. WINTER STORM WATCH TUE NIGHT AND WED MIZ001>005-084. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1152 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .UPDATE... SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LWR MI WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS AFTN AS IT DRIFTS E. ALTHOUGH LAST OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STREAMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES ARE BREAKING UP...EXTENSIVE CI/CS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...AND THERE SHOULD BE A TREND FOR THE CI TO THICKEN SOME DURING THE AFTN. GOING FCST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LWR 40S LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED SUN. A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTABLE TRENDS REGARDING THE MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. NAM/GFS ARE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS...AND SUGGEST HEAVY SNOW WILL TARGET AREAS AS FAR E AS NEGAUNEE AND IRON MOUNTAIN. OBVIOUSLY...THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GET THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH STRONG LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SYNOPTIC SNOW. CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IS FARTHEST W WITH A 979MB LOW NEAR MUNISING AT 12Z WED. RUC13 IS SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN...BUT QUITE A BIT WEAKER. UKMET TRACK IS SIMILAR TO NAM/GFS...BUT ITS THERMAL FIELDS ARE WARMER AND MORE SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...DON'T ANTICIPATE MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING WATCH HEADLINES WITH THE FCST PACKAGE COMING OUT LATE IN THE AFTN...BUT STAY TUNED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 330 AM EST 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV/SFC LO THAT BROUGHT LATEST WIND STORM LIFTING STEADILY NEWD INTO QUEBEC. SHARP CYC FLOW LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE NE AS WELL WITH APRCH OF HI PRES RDG FM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. -SHSN THAT DROPPED A FEW INCHES OF SLOPPY ACCUMULATION HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED WITH DEPARTURE OF CYC FLOW...AND SKIES TENDING TO CLR NR THE WI BORDER AS DRIER AIR/LOWER INVRN HGT NR H9 SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/MPX SDNGS SLIDING IN THIS DIRECTION. PWAT ONLY 0.16 INCH AT INL. WINDS ALSO TENDING TO DIMINISH QUICKLY... AND ALL WIND HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED. ANOTHER STRG SHRTWV DIGGING SE OUT OF THE PACIFIC INTO SW CAN. 165KT H3 WIND SPEED OBSVD ON VANCOUVER ISLAND SUGS THIS SYS WL BE ANOTHER SGNFT WX MAKER IN A FEW DAYS. HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV AND OTHER SHRTWVS IN THE PAC NW/SW CAN ALREADY SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS/TYPE/TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV COMPLEX IN THE PAC NW/SW CAN AND NEED FOR HEADLINES ON WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A SGNFT WX MAKER. RELATIVELY QUIET WX ON TAP FOR TDAY WITH SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES RDG BTWN DEPARTING SHRTWV AND DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES DOMINATING THE UPR LKS. LINGERING SC NR LK SUP SHOULD DEPART THIS MRNG AS BOTH NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW SGNFT LO-MID DRYING (SEE INL/MPX SDNGS) WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS. OTRW...EXPECT AN INCRS IN HI CLD NOW IN THE PLAINS AS GFS SHOWS MOISTENING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AOA THE 290K SFC (ABV H6). MIXING TO H9 ON THE GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS (AS OBSVD AT INL/MPX) YIELDS HI TEMPS FM THE UPR 30S TO THE MID 40S...CONSISTENT WITH READINGS OBSVD YDAY UPSTREAM UNDER THE RDG AXIS. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEPARATE SHRTWVS DEEPENING UPR TROF IN THE PLAINS TNGT. TWO DISTINCT LO PRES CENTERS FCST BY 12Z ACCOMPANYING THESE SEPARATE SHRTWVS...ONE NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER DEEPER ONE IN THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME HI CLD ARND...GFS/NAM SHOW SLGTLY ACYC H85 FLOW BACKING MORE ESE IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRES TO THE S AND W. THESE TRAJECTORIES WL TEND TO MAINTAIN DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TROP AND WEAKEN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-290K SFCS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER SGNFT DYNAMICS UNDER SHRTWV RDGING DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF TO THE W...GFS/NAM SHOW UPR CNVGC OR JUST WEAK UPR DVGC AND DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC MOST OF THE NGT. SINCE NAM/GFS GENERATE ONLY SPARSE PCPN AND CNDN SHOWS JUST SOME LGT AMTS NR THE WI BORDER...HAVE CUT POPS TO JUST 30 ALONG THE WI BORDER/SRN TIER AFTER MIDNGT. WITH THE INFUSION OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LLVL AIR...LOWERED GOING FCST LO TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER TOWARD PHASING SHRTWVS/CONGEALING SEPARATE LOWS INTO ONE DISTINCT CENTER OVER SCNTRL LK MI AT 00Z WED. OTRW...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CNDN ON THIS SCENARIO. 12Z ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT DEEPER WITH A TRACK FARTHER W INTO WI...NOT UNRSNBL CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE H3 WINDS OBSVD IN SW CAN LAST EVNG/MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SLOWER/DEEPER SPINUP AND CONSISTENT ECMWF HANDLING OF SYS. NCEP ALSO PREFERS AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE W GIVEN 12Z ECMWF FCST. NAM/GFS SHOW INCRSG UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC IN THE AFTN UNDER INCRSGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPR TROF AND IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX. NAM ALSO HINTS AT SOME JET COUPLING BY 00Z IN RRQ OF H3 JET IN ONTARIO...BUT OTHER MODELS LESS APRNT WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ANY EVENT...EXPECT PCPN TO BREAK OUT SW TO NE IN THE AFTN. PCPN TYPE A MAJOR CONCERN. NAM IS THE WARMEST WITH HIER H100-85 THKNS INDICATING AT LEAST A MIX WITH RA OVER THE ENTIRE FA. GFS IS A BIT COLDER...WHILE UKMET IS A COMPROMISE IN BTWN. CONSIDERING THE DRIER AIR FCST TO COME IN TNGT...WL TEND TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT COLDER GFS AND MENTION JUST SN W OF BARAGA/IRON RIVER WITH A MIX TO THE E. FAIRLY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES RULE OUT ANYTHING BUT RA OR SN. PER NCEP DISCUSSION AND TREND TOWARD SLOWER/DEEPER LO...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE DEEPER AND FARTHER W CNDN FOR PRELIM DETAILS FOR THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM ON TUE NGT INTO WED. THIS MODEL SUGS DRY SLOTTING OVER THE ERN ZNS...WHERE THERE WL BE EITHER RA/SN OR JUST RA NR LK MI MAINLY BEFORE THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES LATER TUE NGT. BUT DIDN'T TRY TO TIME THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN LOWERING POPS A BIT THERE IN THE OVERNGT. MAIN DEFORMATION ZN BAND OF SN/ CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE W OF H5-7 LOW TRACK WL IMPACT THE FAR W... WHERE H85 TEMPS (ARND -7C TO -8C VS LK TEMP OF +8 TO 9C) WL BE LO ENUF FOR LK ENHANCEMENT IN SHARP CYC NNE FLOW DOWN THE W HALF OF LK SUP. THE SLOWER CNDN ALSO HINTS AT A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE LO ON WED...SO LINGERED CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THIS AREA THEN WITH SHARP CYC FLOW. STRG WINDS MAY BE A THREAT WED MRNG ESPECIALLY OVER THE W IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...CERTAINLY GALES ON LK SUP TUE NGT/WED. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV/LO PRES WL MOVE INTO ONTARIO LATER IN THE DAY...CNDN SHOWS BACKWASH MSTR/CYC FLOW LINGERING ALL DAY. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE W THRU THE AFTN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE TUE AFTN THRU WED FOR MQT-IMT AND W FOR GOOD POTENTIAL OF 6-12" OR MORE SN...GREATEST ARND IWD WHERE LK ENHANCEMENT WL BE MAXIMIZED. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH/NCEP. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUE THRU WED MIZ001>005-009>011-084. && $$ ROLFSON (UPDATE) KC (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 815 PM CDT THU NOV 14 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS POPS...AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. EARLIER AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED NNE ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL MS. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY 00Z JAN SOUNDING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH MID LEVEL ROTATION AND SOMEWHAT RIGHTWARD DEVIANT MOTION...IS MOVING INTO MARION COUNTY ATTM. DEPTH OF REFLECTIVITY AND LIGHTNING HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE ON THIS STORM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. COORDINATED WITH SPC WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE REST OF THE NIGHT. JAN 00Z RAOB ACTUALLY WAS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE WITH SBCAPE VALUE AROUND 1200 J/KG AND DECENT VEERING IN LOWEST 3 KM. WHILE SOME MID LEVEL WARMING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROUGH OVER CENTRAL US...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT. NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT A STRONG OR EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMBINES WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PER 21Z SPC ENSEMBLES AND 00Z RUC...EXPECT MAIN RISK OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION TO FOCUS OVER W AND NW SECTIONS OF AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. RUC SHOWS DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN THIS AREA BY 12Z...WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BY MORNING. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOES AS WELL WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40 KT. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. RUC SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS JUST SHOWERY ACTIVITY OR TRULY DEEP CONVECTION IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE TO DETERMINE. BASED ON PARAMETERS IN RUC/NAM/SREF AND PAST HISTORY WITH NOVEMBER SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES...CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH A TORNADIC RISK LATE TONIGHT PARTICULARLY OVER THE DELTA. WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO WORD ACCORDINGLY. WITH REGARD TO POPS...WILL UPDATE TO GO BASICALLY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY AS SOUTHERLY LL FLOW MAINTAINS MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALL NIGHT AND STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. AS FAR AS TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING. RUNS OF RUC MODEL SHOW A BIT STRONGER TROUGH THAN DAYTIME GFS/NAM MODELS SHOWED. WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE IF 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND IF SO WHAT EFFECT IT HAS ON EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF SEVERE EVENT. STILL CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT BIGGEST SEVERE RISK IS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THEN POINTS NORTH FROM THERE. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AEG/JPG ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 508 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 .DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR CHUNK OF THE GLOBE CONTINUES TO BEHAVE AS IF IT WERE RAMPED UP ON STEROIDS. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT CONFIGURATION OF THE UPPER FLOW IS ON THE VERGE OF UNDERGOING A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE AS VERY POWER 250MB JET (190KT AS SAMPLED BY SUNDAY EVENING RAOBS) DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGH AND CARVES OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO AMPLIFY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER PANHANDLE(S)/SW KANSAS REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND TAKE A HARD LEFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BOMBING BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OPENING THE FLOOD GATES FOR COLD CANADIAN AIR TO COME POURING SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...THE DEVIL IS CERTAINLY IN THE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK ALREADY SHOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE MODELS INSISTENCE ON CRANKING UP SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP TODAY OVER THE AREA. GFS/NAM/RUC ALL SHOW 30-40KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET RUNNING PERPENDICULARLY UP THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES TODAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED (AT BEST) SO ONLY RETAINED MENTION OF THUNDER FAR SOUTH...BUT STILL SEEMS LIKELY SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT EARLY THIS MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS WEAK VORT LIFTS OUT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND WEAKENING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TRIED TO INDICATE THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING SOUTH. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN FALLING INTO A COOL AND INITIALLY SUB-SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CHILLY TODAY. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER MID MISSOURI WHERE IT WOULDNT SHOCK ME TO SEE TEMPS NOT CRACK THE BIG FIVE OH TODAY...FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SUN COULD BRIEFLY POKE OUT LATER TODAY HIGHS MAY INCH UP TO NEAR 60. BY TONIGHT WE ENTER INTO OUR 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF TROPOSPHERE GONE WILD. SHOULD START OUT DRY AND COOL THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST WITH WARM FRONT LURKING TO OUR SOUTH OVER ARKANSAS. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS A BIT AND TRACKS EASTWARD THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO GET DRUG NORTHWARD AS WELL. STRONG CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATE THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME ELEVATED MARGINAL HAILERS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. SPEAKING OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WE SHOULD SEE EVENING LOWS TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT. BUT MORNING TEMPS WILLS PROBABLY BE IN THE 60S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT WE WILL LIKELY SEE A AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORM AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SUCH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH STRONG WARM FRONTS. OTHER THAN A SMALL THREAT OF SOME ELEVATED MARGINAL HAILERS INITIALLY...THE SEVERE THREAT WITH MORE SUBSTANCE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE PAST 2 TORNADO PRODUCERS IN OUR AREA THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-1KM SRH >200 M2/S2. ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE A VERY LOW CAPE EVENT...SO CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE SHALLOW WITH MORE OF A CHANCE OF TORNADOS THAN HAIL OR WIND. OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA LOOKS TO SPEND MUCH TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VERY JUICY WARM SECTOR...AND THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT. SEVERE THREAT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD END BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALREADY BE SENDING TEMPS CRASHING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SEND TEMPS A TUMBLIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY. 3HR PRESSURE RISES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 8MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER WAY WINDS WILL LIKELY GUSTS FREQUENTLY OVER 30-35 MPH...MAKING IT A DELIGHTFUL DAY TO SLEEP IN! DESPITE CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT GRADIENT NEVER RELAXES SO WE WONT REALIZE OUR FULL LOW TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL...OF COURSE IT WILL BE HARD TO CONVINCE PEOPLE OF THAT AS THEY WILL BE GREETED BY WIND CHILLS APPROACHING (IF NOT IN) THE TEENS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIKE IT OR NOT OLD MAN WINTER IS GOING TO VISIT THIS WEEK. CONTINUED MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ENSURE A COLD AFTERNOON. THE STING OF THE COLD MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY FULL SUNSHINE...BUT AFTER WEEKS OF 60S AND 70S EVEN FULL SUNSHINE ISNT GOING TO MAKE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S FEEL MUCH BETTER! COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. GFS DOES SHOW INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE GFS HAS A DEFINITE WET BIAS ALOFT SO NOT CONVINCED THAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE NAM SUGGEST SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT...SO IF THE NAM VERIFIES THE ONLY THING THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 20F WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE SOME DOWNWARD RADIATIVE HEAT TRANSFER AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT OUR GRIDS MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC. NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED GRIDS! THANKS AGAIN TO THE HELPFUL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING WFOS! IZZI && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NOW ENGULF MOST OF THE CWA. LOWEST CEILINGS STILL SOUTH OF THE MO/AR BORDER HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THE MORNING INTO THE 2500 TO 3500 FOOT RANGE AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE. UPPER SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES EAST...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW STRATUS/FOG POSSIBILITIES EXIST AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOST PREVELANT ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER OVERNIGHT. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY MISSOURI. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ALLOWING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI TO GO INTO THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE SGF/JLN 12Z TAFS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. LINDENBERG && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 958 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... PATCHY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT QUICKLY MOVED NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH EARLY EVENING... BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 200% OF NORMAL... AND TRAJECTORIES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREEING ON CONTINUED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. DESPITE ALL OF THIS MOISTURE... OTHER THAN POSSIBLE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IN SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AS INDICATED ON THE LATEST 12HR RUC FORECAST... NO FOCUSING MECHANISM IS APPARENT AND AS SUCH WILL RETAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA BASED ON LAST NIGHT'S CONDITIONS AND ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP SATURATED SURFACE BASED LAYER. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY NOT DROP BELOW 60. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 220 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S TONIGHT THROUGH TUE WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC NEXT 48 HOURS. INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER REGION OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC FIELDS...MAINLY BETWEEN 295K-300K...SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS..MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF CHS INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC FIELDS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION SO FAR. EVENING CREW/MID CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR COVERAGE S-SE OF REGION FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN POPS LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...GENERALLY 57-60. TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...MOIST SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER AREA. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 295K...NOT MUCH DEPTH TO LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TUE NIGHT AT WHICH TIME LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS W-E TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. TEMPS REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS TUE 70-75 AND LOWS TUE NIGHT 59-63. WED/WED NIGHT...SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES REGION. FRONTAL MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS BEST UPPER DYNAMICS/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS N-NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING....850 TROUGH DOESN'T CROSS AREA UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED POPS A LITTLE LONGER WED NIGHT BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONTINUED MILD WED WITH UPPER 60S NW TO MID 70S COASTAL PLAIN. MUCH COOLER WED NIGHT BUT NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SOME MIXING EXPECTED. RAISED MIN TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF TROUGH PASSAGE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...MIN TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES ESPECIALLY EAST HALF. THU/THU NIGHT...DEEP NW FLOW WILL USHER DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO REGION. MAX TEMPS THU A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH PROJECTED HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE HAD A INDICATED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH ATLC COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THEN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LATEST 12Z/14 GFS NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS 06Z RUN WHICH INDICATED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY(LATEST ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS WERE SIMILAR ON THIS TIMING). ALSO GFS INDICATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG/JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLC COAST DURING MONDAY AND MOVING NORTH...HINTING AT A WET PICTURE FOR MONDAY. AT THIS POINT ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY MOSTLY 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. AVIATION... MOSTLY SCATTERED STRATOCU LAYER 4-6KFT...OCNL BKN AFTER 20Z...AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CIGS BCMG 3-5KFT. MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY VSBYS 3-5 MI FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA AFTER 09Z. THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INDICATE AN AREA ISENTROPIC LIFT (295-300K) ALONG SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS AFTER 09Z THROUGH 12Z. THUS EXPECT IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KFAY/KRWI WITH OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 13Z. KGSO-KINT-KRDU VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1045 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005 .UPDATE... A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND/TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS. MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE IS TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THIS PERIOD WOULD NORMALLY BE A DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR DEEP MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...IMPRESSIVE DEEP COLD ADVECTION PROGS WOULD LEAD US TO EXPECT DEEPER THAN "NORMAL" MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS BEHIND FRONT. WE FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE WEAKER WITH LOWER LEVEL GRADIENT...BUT STILL HAVE 50KTS IN THE 875-850MB LAYER. EXPECT CRITERIA FOR HIGH WIND WARNING TO BE MET MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT COULD STILL SEE 58+MPH GUSTS AT NORMALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS (CHEYENNE/MEDICINE PARK/MINCO/ETC...) WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH MIXING DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AND MAGNITUDE OF WIND DECREASING...THUS WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN PROGD THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE MAIN CONCERN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 348 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005) DISCUSSION... CONTINUED ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPMENT NEAR A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO COALGATE AND MADILL. RUC/NAM AGREE THAT THE LOWER/MID LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL VEER FURTHER THROUGH 15Z RESULTING IN WARMER/DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. WEST OF WHERE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME...VERY DRY CONTINENTAL EXISTS...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE TEENS OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO THE UPPER 20S OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHICH IS ALSO WHERE A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED. PRESSURES ARE ALREADY FALLING EAST OF ROCKIES AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOUTHERLY/ SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS MAY BEGIN RISING A LITTLE TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY AFTERNOON ONCE THE FLOW STRENGTHENS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THUS HAVE USED THE RUC LARGELY FOR 1ST DEWPOINT GRIDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING A KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX OF OVER 250. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING EFFECTIVE FROM 11A-6P WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE...TO LAWTON...DUNCAN...WICHITA FALLS...AND SEYMOUR. TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT CONCERNED ABOUT VERY LOW HUMIDITIES. STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IS NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE A FEW HOURS SLOWER COMPARED TO MODELS 24 HRS AGO. MAIN IMPACT HERE MAY BE TO ALLOW MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO ADVECT A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND/OR WEST TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. NAM/GFS AGREE THAT A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET UP AFTER 00Z TUESDAY FROM SW MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH INSTABILITY ON THE LOW SIDE...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WILL LIKELY BE NARROW AND VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT (3 AM TO 9 AM). AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY SHOULD BE BET ALL AREAS WITH WINDS EVEN APPROACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE/MIXING AND FRONTAL DEPTH. THESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ALL DAY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING LOW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROPOSED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR/CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM HOLDING OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH/WRNG AT THIS TIME...MAINLY TO EMPHASIZE OTHER MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. HOWEVER... ONE WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. STILL NO MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A GREAT LAKES/EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PERIODIC AND MAINLY QUICK MOVING FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY FEW DAYS THAT ALSO PREVENTS A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 45 51 27 / 0 20 10 0 HOBART OK 73 41 50 26 / 0 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 73 47 55 30 / 0 20 10 0 GAGE OK 71 35 47 22 / 0 0 10 0 PONCA CITY OK 63 40 49 26 / 0 20 10 0 DURANT OK 73 59 61 34 / 10 40 30 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027- OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ044. WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013- OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021- OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029- OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038- OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ044. HIGH WIND WATCH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ022-OKZ023- OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031- OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040- OKZ044. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011- OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ021. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017- OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038-OKZ044. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ045. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ032-OKZ041- OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087. WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087. HIGH WIND WATCH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086- TXZ087. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. && $$ 11/22 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 748 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SHOWERS IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DISSIPATED. THESE APPEARED TO BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING...AN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK H85 WARM ADVECTION. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION. BELIEVE THE RAIN CHANCE IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 249 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN, WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WE ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND SHOWERS IN THE NC/GA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INCREASING MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS ENTIRE AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE LIFT. DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WED WITH WEAK INSTABILITIES AND SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA IN UPPER FLOW. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. GULF OF MEXICO CLOSED. SO, DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER EXPECTING STRATUS TO FORM WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1 THOUSAND FEET AND VSBYS 2-4 MILES. AFTER 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 05 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 926 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005 .UPDATE... AT 9 PM CST...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN SE COLORADO INTO WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS HAVING JUST MOVED THRU TRINIDAD AND SPRINGFIELD WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH AT SPRINGFIELD. 2 MB PLUS PER HR SFC PRESSURE RISES INDICATED ON MSAS ANALYSIS IN CO...WY...AND NE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH IT SOUTHWARD VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. 0Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THUS NO MAJOR REVISIONS ARE PLANNED. OZ RUC IS PERHAPS AN HOUR FASTER THAN NAM AND OUR CURRENT FCST SO HAVE NUDGED THE FROPA A BIT EARLIER IN GRIDS...NOW INTO OUR NRN COUNTIES AROUND 2-3 AM CST AND THROUGH LBB BY 4-5. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS BAND OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST RUC AND NAM TAKE THE BAND INTO NE NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OKLA PANHANDLE BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT REMNANT LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NW COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY CLOUD COVER TO BE SHORT-LIVED THROUGH AND NOT OF MUCH CONCERN. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO CLOUD GRIDS TO SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT PASSES. UPDATED ZONES/PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAILEY...BRISCOE...CASTRO...CHILDRESS... COCHRAN...COTTLE...CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...GARZA...HALE... HALL...HOCKLEY...KENT...KING...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...MOTLEY... PARMER...STONEWALL...SWISHER...TERRY...AND YOAKUM. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHILDRESS...COCHRAN...COTTLE...CROSBY... DICKENS...GARZA...HOCKLEY...KENT...KING...LUBBOCK...LYNN... MOTLEY...STONEWALL...TERRY...AND YOAKUM. && $$ 05/33 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1240 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .AVIATION... WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF LWB...NEAR BLF/ROA AND LYH. STRONG WAVE DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHICH ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL TRACK ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT. I EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR DAN WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE PRECIP. A PERIOD OF IFR IS LIKELY...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AS THE PRECIP PULLS AWAY TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEFORE THE WINDS PICK UP LATER IN THE MORNING. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1045 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... ONE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS GREENBRIER AND THE HIGHLANDS OF VA WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA SOON. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS MOVING UP INTO THE TN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EXTREME SW VA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS TO NEED A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF PRECIP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CARRY ON INTO THIS EVENING...SO I ALSO ADJUSTED THE PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE VA HIGHLANDS...AND WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WE WILL SEE A LOT MORE HEATING THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. HAD TO RAISE MAX TEMPS NEARLY 5 DEGREES ACROS SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH SIDE VA AND NW PIEDMONT OF NC. FOR THE SAME REASON...FRONT STALLING FURTHER NORTH...I LOWERED THE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 640 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) AVIATION... FRONTAL ZONE ENTERING AND STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WILL BRING SCTD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BLF/LWB AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT BLF/LWB WITH SOME IFR EARLY AT LWB. MOSTLY VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN UNTIL LATE TODAY AS LIGHT SE FLOW INCREASES. MAINLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR INCREASES. BLF MAY REMAIN MVFR TNGT UNDER SE FLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WV ERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE TENN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST EARLY TODAY...STALLING HALFWAY ACROSS VIRGINIA...AND INTO FAR SW VIRGINIA. BEST LIFT IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE TN VLY...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPS...AS WEAK WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO PA. LOOKING AT LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MILD THIS MORNING...AND WANT TAKE TOO MUCH TO WARM INTO THE 60S...SO GOING JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS...ESPECIALLY IN MY SERN CWA...WHERE INFLUENCE OF PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS. TONIGHT...LEANING MORE TOWARD GFS....AS STRONG SW FLOW WILL SHIFT THE FRONT WELL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO PA. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG LIFT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE WV INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... TUESDAY WE'LL SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE FURTHER NORTH THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS THIS PD WILL SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PCPN COVERAGE. COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG VORT CENTER TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z WED. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...HOWEVER INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. STILL WILL SEE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG GOING FROM +10C WED AT 12Z TO -8C 06Z THU. LKG AT PRESSURE RISES AND 850 WIND SPEEDS BEHIND FRONT DO NOT THINK ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE SOME PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1239 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) AVIATION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIFT WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL INTO THE ROANOKE AND LYH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE DANVILLE STAYS IN A DRIER REGIME...AS BATCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...NORTHEAST INTO NRN VIRGINIA. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE BEFORE DAWN. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY...FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ROANOKE AND LYH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENING IN DANVILLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 909 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPS RATHER MILD. 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST STILL SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE RH A BIT DEEPER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT/THETA-E RIDGE PER MSAS. LATEST WRF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF PRECIP PERSISTING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THRU MORNING PER WEAK LIFT...WHILE THE NAM INDICATES THE CURRENT BAND WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT UPON HITTING EASTERN DRY AIR. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN ZONES FOR SPOTTY -RA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IN 20/30 CHANCES OUT EAST WHERE SATURATION LOOKS IFFY. MAY ALSO RAISE LOWS A NOTCH IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CLOUDS/SLOWER FROPA AND LOWER EAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE AIDED EARLY RAD COOLING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CLEANUP TO REMOVE EVENING/MIDNIGHT WORDING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 629 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) AVIATION... WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY PUSHING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SPOTTY -RA NEARING THE SE WVA SITES. HOWEVER AIR REMAINS QUITE DRY EAST OF THIS AREA AND IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWERING OF CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR AT BLF/LWB AFTER MIDNIGHT AND VFR ELSW IN AC/CU OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE AT VSBY REDUCTION IN -RA IN SE WVA WHERE WILL INCLUDE AN EARLY TEMPO AND THEN PREVAILING MVFR TOWARD 12Z AS ACTUAL FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS. MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT DEEPER MON GIVEN BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT ALTHO EXPANSE OF RAINFALL A QUESTION PENDING FINAL FRONTAL LOCATION. MODELS SUGGEST WESTERN SITES WITH THE BEST LIFT SO PLAN TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR MOST SPOTS WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB IF PRECIP IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 318 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CATCH UP TO THE SHOWERS...WITH BOTH ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) AROUND 00Z. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SE WV WHERE BEST THETA-E RIDGE AND LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AS SEE ON VAD WIND PROFILE VIA KFCX RADAR AT 19Z UTC. THE AIRMASS STARTED OUT DRY THIS MORNING...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY RISING...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND +8 WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. ALSO WITH DEW POINTS ON THE INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AND WILL BE 15-20F WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY LIKELY THE COLDEST SPOT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR 40F. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PLUS THERE IS SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LAYER. SO WILL HOLD THE CHANGE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF ROANOKE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT STEADY RAIN MONDAY AND INSITU WEDGE WILL BREAK EASILY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETREATS STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. WITH WEAK WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MID TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... MODELS NOW DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PHASING IT WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS INTERACTION HAS SLOWED THE FRONTAL TIMING DOWN ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE WV AROUND 06Z WED...THEN TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY 12Z WED AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND 21Z WED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY GOOD AND HAVE SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS FORWARD BY 6 HOURS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHIFTED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH ABOVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WILL EASILY RUN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD FRONT TIMING SLOWING DOWN TO TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH HIGHS DURING THE MORNING THEN REMAINING STEADY IN THE EAST AND FALLING IN THE WEST. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND. MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD SCRAPE THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. AVIATION... SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN VERY SLOWLY FROM THE WEST SO HAD DELAYED ARRIVAL TIME UNTIL AFT 21Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AND BY THAT TIME THERE IS MUCH MORE MOISTURE. NEAR THE FRONT EXPECT IFR TOP MVFR CEILINGS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JJ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1045 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... ONE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS GREENBRIER AND THE HIGHLANDS OF VA WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA SOON. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS MOVING UP INTO THE TN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EXTREME SW VA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS TO NEED A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF PRECIP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CARRY ON INTO THIS EVENING...SO I ALSO ADJUSTED THE PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE VA HIGHLANDS...AND WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WE WILL SEE A LOT MORE HEATING THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. HAD TO RAISE MAX TEMPS NEARLY 5 DEGREES ACROS SOUTHERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH SIDE VA AND NW PIEDMONT OF NC. FOR THE SAME REASON...FRONT STALLING FURTHER NORTH...I LOWERED THE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 640 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) AVIATION... FRONTAL ZONE ENTERING AND STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WILL BRING SCTD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BLF/LWB AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT BLF/LWB WITH SOME IFR EARLY AT LWB. MOSTLY VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN UNTIL LATE TODAY AS LIGHT SE FLOW INCREASES. MAINLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR INCREASES. BLF MAY REMAIN MVFR TNGT UNDER SE FLOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WV ERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE TENN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST EARLY TODAY...STALLING HALFWAY ACROSS VIRGINIA...AND INTO FAR SW VIRGINIA. BEST LIFT IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE TN VLY...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPS...AS WEAK WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO PA. LOOKING AT LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MILD THIS MORNING...AND WANT TAKE TOO MUCH TO WARM INTO THE 60S...SO GOING JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS...ESPECIALLY IN MY SERN CWA...WHERE INFLUENCE OF PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS. TONIGHT...LEANING MORE TOWARD GFS....AS STRONG SW FLOW WILL SHIFT THE FRONT WELL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO PA. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG LIFT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE WV INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... TUESDAY WE'LL SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE FURTHER NORTH THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS THIS PD WILL SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PCPN COVERAGE. COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG VORT CENTER TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z WED. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...HOWEVER INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. STILL WILL SEE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG GOING FROM +10C WED AT 12Z TO -8C 06Z THU. LKG AT PRESSURE RISES AND 850 WIND SPEEDS BEHIND FRONT DO NOT THINK ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE SOME PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1239 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) AVIATION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIFT WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL INTO THE ROANOKE AND LYH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE DANVILLE STAYS IN A DRIER REGIME...AS BATCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...NORTHEAST INTO NRN VIRGINIA. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE BEFORE DAWN. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY...FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ROANOKE AND LYH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENING IN DANVILLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 909 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPS RATHER MILD. 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST STILL SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE RH A BIT DEEPER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT/THETA-E RIDGE PER MSAS. LATEST WRF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF PRECIP PERSISTING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THRU MORNING PER WEAK LIFT...WHILE THE NAM INDICATES THE CURRENT BAND WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT UPON HITTING EASTERN DRY AIR. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN ZONES FOR SPOTTY -RA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IN 20/30 CHANCES OUT EAST WHERE SATURATION LOOKS IFFY. MAY ALSO RAISE LOWS A NOTCH IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CLOUDS/SLOWER FROPA AND LOWER EAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE AIDED EARLY RAD COOLING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CLEANUP TO REMOVE EVENING/MIDNIGHT WORDING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 629 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) AVIATION... WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY PUSHING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SPOTTY -RA NEARING THE SE WVA SITES. HOWEVER AIR REMAINS QUITE DRY EAST OF THIS AREA AND IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWERING OF CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR AT BLF/LWB AFTER MIDNIGHT AND VFR ELSW IN AC/CU OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE AT VSBY REDUCTION IN -RA IN SE WVA WHERE WILL INCLUDE AN EARLY TEMPO AND THEN PREVAILING MVFR TOWARD 12Z AS ACTUAL FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS. MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT DEEPER MON GIVEN BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT ALTHO EXPANSE OF RAINFALL A QUESTION PENDING FINAL FRONTAL LOCATION. MODELS SUGGEST WESTERN SITES WITH THE BEST LIFT SO PLAN TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR MOST SPOTS WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB IF PRECIP IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 318 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CATCH UP TO THE SHOWERS...WITH BOTH ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) AROUND 00Z. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SE WV WHERE BEST THETA-E RIDGE AND LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AS SEE ON VAD WIND PROFILE VIA KFCX RADAR AT 19Z UTC. THE AIRMASS STARTED OUT DRY THIS MORNING...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY RISING...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND +8 WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. ALSO WITH DEW POINTS ON THE INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AND WILL BE 15-20F WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY LIKELY THE COLDEST SPOT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR 40F. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PLUS THERE IS SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LAYER. SO WILL HOLD THE CHANGE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF ROANOKE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT STEADY RAIN MONDAY AND INSITU WEDGE WILL BREAK EASILY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETREATS STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. WITH WEAK WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MID TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... MODELS NOW DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PHASING IT WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS INTERACTION HAS SLOWED THE FRONTAL TIMING DOWN ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE WV AROUND 06Z WED...THEN TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY 12Z WED AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND 21Z WED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY GOOD AND HAVE SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS FORWARD BY 6 HOURS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHIFTED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH ABOVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WILL EASILY RUN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD FRONT TIMING SLOWING DOWN TO TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH HIGHS DURING THE MORNING THEN REMAINING STEADY IN THE EAST AND FALLING IN THE WEST. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND. MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD SCRAPE THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. AVIATION... SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN VERY SLOWLY FROM THE WEST SO HAD DELAYED ARRIVAL TIME UNTIL AFT 21Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AND BY THAT TIME THERE IS MUCH MORE MOISTURE. NEAR THE FRONT EXPECT IFR TOP MVFR CEILINGS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JJ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 640 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 .AVIATION... FRONTAL ZONE ENTERING AND STALLING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WILL BRING SCTD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO BLF/LWB AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT BLF/LWB WITH SOME IFR EARLY AT LWB. MOSTLY VFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN UNTIL LATE TODAY AS LIGHT SE FLOW INCREASES. MAINLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTR INCREASES. BLF MAY REMAIN MVFR TNGT UNDER SE FLOW. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WV ERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE TENN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST EARLY TODAY...STALLING HALFWAY ACROSS VIRGINIA...AND INTO FAR SW VIRGINIA. BEST LIFT IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE TN VLY...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPS...AS WEAK WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO PA. LOOKING AT LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MILD THIS MORNING...AND WANT TAKE TOO MUCH TO WARM INTO THE 60S...SO GOING JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN MOS...ESPECIALLY IN MY SERN CWA...WHERE INFLUENCE OF PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS. TONIGHT...LEANING MORE TOWARD GFS....AS STRONG SW FLOW WILL SHIFT THE FRONT WELL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO PA. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG LIFT ARRIVING IN THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE WV INTO THE VA HIGHLANDS. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... TUESDAY WE'LL SEE THE WARM FRONT MOVE FURTHER NORTH THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS THIS PD WILL SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PCPN COVERAGE. COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG VORT CENTER TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z WED. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...HOWEVER INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. STILL WILL SEE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG GOING FROM +10C WED AT 12Z TO -8C 06Z THU. LKG AT PRESSURE RISES AND 850 WIND SPEEDS BEHIND FRONT DO NOT THINK ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE SOME PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1239 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005) AVIATION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. APPEARS BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIFT WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL INTO THE ROANOKE AND LYH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE DANVILLE STAYS IN A DRIER REGIME...AS BATCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...NORTHEAST INTO NRN VIRGINIA. SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT DANVILLE BEFORE DAWN. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY...FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ROANOKE AND LYH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENING IN DANVILLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 909 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPS RATHER MILD. 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST STILL SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE RH A BIT DEEPER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT/THETA-E RIDGE PER MSAS. LATEST WRF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF PRECIP PERSISTING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THRU MORNING PER WEAK LIFT...WHILE THE NAM INDICATES THE CURRENT BAND WILL WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT UPON HITTING EASTERN DRY AIR. FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WESTERN ZONES FOR SPOTTY -RA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IN 20/30 CHANCES OUT EAST WHERE SATURATION LOOKS IFFY. MAY ALSO RAISE LOWS A NOTCH IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN CLOUDS/SLOWER FROPA AND LOWER EAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE AIDED EARLY RAD COOLING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CLEANUP TO REMOVE EVENING/MIDNIGHT WORDING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 629 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) AVIATION... WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY PUSHING AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SPOTTY -RA NEARING THE SE WVA SITES. HOWEVER AIR REMAINS QUITE DRY EAST OF THIS AREA AND IFFY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL DRY UP CROSSING THE RIDGES. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWERING OF CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR AT BLF/LWB AFTER MIDNIGHT AND VFR ELSW IN AC/CU OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE AT VSBY REDUCTION IN -RA IN SE WVA WHERE WILL INCLUDE AN EARLY TEMPO AND THEN PREVAILING MVFR TOWARD 12Z AS ACTUAL FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS. MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT DEEPER MON GIVEN BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT ALTHO EXPANSE OF RAINFALL A QUESTION PENDING FINAL FRONTAL LOCATION. MODELS SUGGEST WESTERN SITES WITH THE BEST LIFT SO PLAN TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR MOST SPOTS WITH OCNL IFR POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB IF PRECIP IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 318 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND CATCH UP TO THE SHOWERS...WITH BOTH ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) AROUND 00Z. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE TOWARD THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA AND GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SE WV WHERE BEST THETA-E RIDGE AND LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AS SEE ON VAD WIND PROFILE VIA KFCX RADAR AT 19Z UTC. THE AIRMASS STARTED OUT DRY THIS MORNING...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY RISING...EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES 850 MB DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND +8 WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 INCH. ALSO WITH DEW POINTS ON THE INCREASE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH AND WILL BE 15-20F WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY LIKELY THE COLDEST SPOT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR 40F. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...PLUS THERE IS SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 295K LAYER. SO WILL HOLD THE CHANGE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF ROANOKE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NOT LOOKING AT A PERSISTENT STEADY RAIN MONDAY AND INSITU WEDGE WILL BREAK EASILY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETREATS STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. WITH WEAK WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MID TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... MODELS NOW DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PHASING IT WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS INTERACTION HAS SLOWED THE FRONTAL TIMING DOWN ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE WV AROUND 06Z WED...THEN TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY 12Z WED AND ALONG THE EAST COAST AROUND 21Z WED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY GOOD AND HAVE SHIFTED HIGHEST POPS FORWARD BY 6 HOURS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HAVE SHIFTED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH ABOVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WILL EASILY RUN ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD FRONT TIMING SLOWING DOWN TO TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION WITH HIGHS DURING THE MORNING THEN REMAINING STEADY IN THE EAST AND FALLING IN THE WEST. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND. MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD SCRAPE THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. AVIATION... SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN VERY SLOWLY FROM THE WEST SO HAD DELAYED ARRIVAL TIME UNTIL AFT 21Z. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AND BY THAT TIME THERE IS MUCH MORE MOISTURE. NEAR THE FRONT EXPECT IFR TOP MVFR CEILINGS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 251 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 .SYNOPSIS... EVERY POSSIBLE PLAYER HAS MADE IT ONTO THE FORECAST PLAYING FIELD FOR THE STORM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS FORECAST...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...AND AS OF 2 AM...A LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR AND VERY MOIST AIR ARE RAPIDLY PULLING INTO THIS SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS POSITIONED EAST FROM THE LOW TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PATH OF THE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COLD AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY DRIZZLE...AND NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED...AND FOG IS DEVELOPING. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING...SHOULD IT THICKEN MUCH MORE. .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI. LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY SLOT MAY STILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD CITIES...OR GENERALLY THE ILLINOIS COUNTIES. THIS MAY SEVERELY LIMIT PCPN AMOUNT THERE FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD IT OCCUR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF LIFT...100 PERCENT POPS ARE WARRANTED TODAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS...TOWARD THE PREVIOUS NAM RUNS...HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS SHIFTED WEST!! THE 06Z RUC HAS ALSO SHIFTED WEST. THIS IS VERY DISTURBING AS ANY SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL KEEP OUR AREAS PRIMARILY IN RAIN AND NOT SIGNIFICANT SNOW. THAT SAID...06Z RUNS RARELY OVERWHELM GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AT 00Z WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA. VERY COLD AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 3 PM IN THE WEST. A QUICK CHANGE OVER SHOULD OCCUR AS MODEL SOUNDING DROP BELOW FREEZING FROM TOP TO BOTTOM DURING THE CHANGEOVER PERIOD. CHANGE TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE CEDAR RAPIDS AREA AROUND 4 TO 6 PM...AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...INCLUDING SOUTHERN AREAS. CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK TRANSITION AROUND 8 PM. THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF SIGOURNEY...TO DUBUQUE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOWFALL FROM 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES. FARTHER EAST...SNOWFALL OF A HALF TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS FORECAST DOWN TO FAIRFIELD TO THE QUAD CITIES AND FREEPORT. SOUTHEAST OF THIS...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. WIND WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...AND SHOULD REACH AND EXCEED 30 MPH SUSTAINED IN MOST AREAS BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...GUST MAY REACH 45 TO 50. WHERE SNOWFALL IS ACCUMULATING...BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS RISK. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TOO LOW FOR ADVISORY CONDITIONS...THOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OR INTERMITTENT PERIODS MAY SEE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS FAIRFIELD TO THE QUAD CITIES...TO FREEPORT. WILL MENTION THIS RISK IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THESE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TIL AROUND MID DAY WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR TRAVEL HAZARDS. TEMPS WILL CRASH INTO THE 20S TONIGHT...AND ONLY RETURN SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE. ...ERVIN... && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS... NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MANY SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. FORCING QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF PRECIP OCCUR. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL ONE BELIEVES...THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...OR ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. ...08... && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A SIGOURNEY...TO DUBUQUE LINE FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO NOON WEDNESDAY. WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OTHER IOWA COUNTIES FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 2 PM WEDNESDAY. IL...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES 6 PM TONIGHT TO 2 PM WEDNESDAY. MO...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES 6 PM TONIGHT TO 2 PM WEDNESDAY. $$ ERVIN/08 ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 328 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THE WIND. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND PROFILERS SHOWING THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DDC CWA WITH PRECIP COMING TO AN END OVER EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO IN THE FACE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN FROM 12Z-15Z. MAY TOTALLY REMOVE POPS BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE AS THEY ARE. STRATUS DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA ATTM AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS FROM THE NAM, THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH ALL AREAS EITHER SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY BY MIDDAY. WINDS HAVE REACH WARNING CRITERIA AT KLBL AND ARE APPROACHING AT KHQG WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. THE 850 MB WIND PROGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KT WINDS OVER THE AREA MAINLY FROM 12Z-15Z AND THEN SETTLING DOWN TO AROUND 40KTS THEREAFTER. THE RUC40 IS COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH 50KT WINDS THROUGH 18Z. HAD ENTERTAINED THE IDEA OF DOWNGRADING THE WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY BUT EVEN IF WE DON'T HAVE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH, THINK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT 40 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTACT. THINK THE WINDS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE WARNING EXPIRES. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BACK OFF ON TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING THROUGH 850 MB. WITH FORECAST 850 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 0C AT KEHA TO -5 AT KHYS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 45 IN THE SOUTHEAST. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AND HAVE PRETTY MUCH LEFT AS IS. DAYS 3-7... GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU 7 DAYS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED ALTHOUGH DELAYED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEXT TO NIL IN THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE GOING GRIDS HAD THIS LAID OUT WELL SO OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NO CHANGES WERE MADE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 42 16 46 23 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 40 15 47 21 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 41 16 50 23 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 42 17 49 22 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 39 17 43 22 / 20 0 0 0 P28 44 20 45 26 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ030-KSZ031-KSZ043-KSZ044-KSZ045-KSZ046-KSZ061-KSZ062-KSZ063- KSZ064-KSZ065-KSZ066-KSZ074-KSZ075-KSZ076-KSZ077-KSZ078-KSZ079- KSZ080-KSZ081-KSZ084-KSZ085-KSZ086-KSZ087-KSZ088-KSZ089-KSZ090. && $$ GERARD/LACY ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 210 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 ...ACTIVE WX NEXT 24 HOURS: HVY RAIN THIS MORNING AND WIDESPREAD SVR WX THIS AFTN/EVE... .SHORT TERM (TODAY...TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY)... FOLLOWING RUC/NAM DATA FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FCST. BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...IN ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO IN/OH. HVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN IND WITH TRAINING CELLS. MUCH OF THE REFLECTIVITY IS BELOW 20KFT...SUGGESTIVE OF TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SMALL HAIL...CONFIRMED BY SPOTTER REPORTS. SOME SPOTS IN SRN IND MAY PICK UP 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN...HIGHER AMTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HPC HAS PUT THIS AREA IN A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS...SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS. DRY ANTECEDENT GROUND MAY HELP DELAY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT THE BAND OF RAIN STRETCHES BACK ALL THE WAY TO SE MO...SO HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 9 AM EST FOR SRN IND AND KY COUNTIES ALONG OHIO RIVER. WITH INCREASING LLJ...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS... DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN ADVECT NWD INTO THE REGION. LAPS IS SHOWING THAT LI'S HAVE FINALLY GONE BELOW ZERO IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN KY DOWN INTO WRN TN AS OF 06 UTC. SCT TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THOSE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NAM BUFKIT HODOGRAPHS IN LOWEST 1KM AGL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS WITHIN WARM SECTOR. TORNADO WATCH #863 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 UTC. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT WARM FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD LIFT NWD BY AROUND DAYBREAK LEAVING CWA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH MAINLY SCT TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND HAS LIKELY ESTABLISHED A GOOD COLD POOL THAT MAY HELP ANCHOR PCPN WHERE IT IS NOW RATHER THAN LIFTING IT NWD. SO WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG/NORTH OF AN OWB-FFT LINE...WITH SCT-LIKELY POPS FOR REST OF CWA. INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHARP UPPER TROF EJECTS OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID-MISS RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING NAM 700MB OMEGA FIELDS...LINEAR CONVECTION LOOKS TO ORGANIZE BY MID/LATE AFTN OVER MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT A QUICK RATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS USUALLY ARE TOO SLOW WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY FORWARD PROPAGATING LINEAR CONVECTION...SO WILL FACTOR IN ABOUT A 3 HOUR BIAS CORRECTION IN OUR FORECAST FOR SQUALL LINE PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THIS LINE...HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. CWA IS IN A SPC DAY ONE "RISK GRADIENT" WITH A HIGH RISK WEST OF I-65...THEN A MODERATE RISK...THEN A SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR ERN COUNTIES. SEE SPC OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. AHEAD OF SQ LINE IN THE WARM SECTOR...DISCRETE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. THESE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. CURRENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF MEMPHIS DO SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING ABOUT 600MB...AND NAM IS SHOWING THOSE SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS AT 600MB ADVECTING NWD INTO CWA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN HOURS WHICH MAY AFFECT DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THAT PERIOD. SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT IN THESE STRONG AUTUMN STORMS THE DYNAMICS CAN EASILY OVERCOME COMPARATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL BE GUSTY (25KTS OR SO)...AND TEMPERATURES WILL GET FAIRLY WARM. FOLLOWING MAINLY RAW NAM12 NUMBERS TODAY... THOUGH MAY GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OVER CNTRL KY SINCE WE MAY SEE A FAIR AMT OF SUN THERE...EVIDENCED BY CLEAR SLOT NOW ON SAT PIX FROM WRN TN BACK DOWN INTO AR. CURRENT RECORD HIGHS SHOULD BE SAFE...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO COME CLOSE. AFTER SQ PASSAGE THIS EVENING...SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE FCST FOR A FEW HOURS...AS POST-FRONTAL WINDS GUST UP TO 25KTS AND TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY. INTO WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RISE (IF AT ALL)...ESP FROM SRN IND OVER INTO LOU/LEX ZONES WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT BASED ON NAM BUFKIT DATA. CS .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... DUE TO ONGOING WX...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...EXCEPT TO ADD NEW DAY 7 GRIDS FOR THE NDFD. RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION CONTINUED BELOW. CS WED NIGHT THRU THU NGT... AS NW FLO GOES ZONAL WED NGT/THU...PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LEAD TO SUB FRZG TEMPS WED AND THU NGT...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THIS AUTUMN.--DK FRI THRU MON... WE CONT IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR LVL PATTERN DURG THIS PD WITH A SHRTWV TROF TO MOVE INTO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS FRI AND ANOTHER TROF SUN. PROGGED MSTR DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENUF TO INSERT POPS FOR FRI...HOWEVER CDFNT ASCTD WITH SECOND TROF MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. NCEP FAVORS A DRY WEEKEND BASED ON THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM NCEPS ENSMEAN AND 06Z GFS. WILL STAY CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING DRY FCST FOR NOW AND TEMPS AS WELL. --DK .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST FOR COUNTIES ALONG OHIO RIVER. TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST WEST OF A FT KNOX TO GLASGOW LINE. IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST ALL COUNTIES. TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST BASICALLY HARRISON COUNTY WESTWARD. $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 352 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT OVERALL FORECAST IS PRETTY EASY...WET AND WINDY...AS MAJOR STORM WRAPS UP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ALL BOMB OUT THE SURFACE LOW...BUT TRACKS/INTENSITIES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OF 08Z...GFS IS TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL DISCOUNT AS IT ENDS UP BEING THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTION AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO (AND WEAKER). GIVEN VERIFICATION IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...PREFER RUC13...WHICH IS LOCKED ON THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR. NAM IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IN ITS REPRESENTATION. THE DIFFERENCE -VS- GFS IS A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG/JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS IDEA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE GREATER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT SHOULD RACE NORTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER GIVEN THE SHEAR/DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A RATHER AGGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ON THE OCCLUDING COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL WORK AS ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL THE TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ENSUES LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR WINDS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. SETUP IS MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) SO OPTED TO FORGO THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DO EXPECT A SOLID ADVISORY (45+ MPH GUSTS) W/ THE PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TIMING...DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND 12Z RUNS OF MODELS TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO GO. BASICALLY...THE CLOSE THE SOLUTION IS TO RUC13...THE CLOSER THE NORTHWEST CWA (I-69 NORTH AND ALONG/WEST OF I-75) IS TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE TIMING & AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MINIMIZE MIXING SOMEWHAT (PERHAPS KEEPING WINDS DOWN). ALSO...THE SYSTEM RACES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO THE WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL BE HOISTING A STORM WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...AS WELL AS OUTER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE THE FUNNELING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MAXIMIZE. FROM HERE...INTO THE NORTH PART OF THE LAKE...EXPECT 55+ KNOT GUSTS PER RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS. WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT WORD TO 45 KNOT GUSTS...JUST SHORT OF STORMS. EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH FOR LAKE ST CLAIR/WESTERN LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL GALES. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE RUC13 WAS THUS FAR VERIFYING WELL AND FOLLOWED FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK...IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAP INTO THE 50KTS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEST PRESSURE RISE OCCURRING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIGHT NOT GET THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS ABOUT THE TALKED ABOUT DEFORMATION AXIS AND SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE BUT SLOWER IN ARRIVING WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE ARRIVAL AND ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA. BUT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GET THE LAKES ACTIVATED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND WE WILL TAPER BACK THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. SO OUR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH LAKE AGGREGATE IN PLACE BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROGRESS DURING THE DAY...SO SOME FLURRIES EARLY ON. WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE STATE...WE FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT HIGH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 35 (IF NOT 32!)...SO WE WILL UNDERCUT MACHINE NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING TO BRING ABOUT FRIDAYS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO CALMED DOWN A BIT WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC INTENSITY. WITH A NEARLY BELOW 0C SOUNDING...ALL PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW! SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS MIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO IT STILL SEEMS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE TO THE QPF. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WE REMAIN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN HINTS OF A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC! && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1220 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005) AVIATION... CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME IFR REPORTS MIXED IN. WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING... AFFECTING DTW/DET OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH MBS THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL INCREASE IN CIGS BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS YESTERDAY. SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. FRONT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL IMPROVE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. STORM WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....BGM YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 320 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENIG UPR TROF OVER THE WRN PLAINS WITH SVRL SGFNT SHRTWVS AND RIBBON OF H3 WINDS UP TO 150KT/H5 WINDS UP TO 100KT ON BACK SIDE OF TROF ADVECTING H5 TEMPS AOB -35C S THRU MT HELPING TO INTENSIFY THIS FEATURE. THE MOST PRONOUNCED SHRTWV ALF IS LOCATED OVER ND...WITH ONLY WEAK INVERTED TROF AT THE SFC. SOME -RA/-SN OBSVD OVER MN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYS. STRONGER SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 WIND MAX IS PRESENT OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH DVLPG SFC LO OVER NB. THIS SHRTWV BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH GLFMEX MSTR RETURNING N (H85 DWPTS UP TO 11C/PWAT UP TO 1.20 INCH AS FAR N AS LIT AT 00Z) TO CAUSE OUTBREAK OF CNVCTN IN THE MID MS VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...FA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RDG ACRS THE UPR UPR GRT LKS AND DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H65-7 AND INVRN AT H9 ON THE 00Z GRB/APX SDNGS. SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU THE CNTRL LKS HAS BRUSHED THE SE ZNS WITH THICKER MID CLD...BUT ASSOCIATED PCPN REMAINS TO THE S. HOWEVER...SOME SC HAS DVLPD OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL FA AT THE INVRN BASE AS NAM SHOWS MOISTENING ON THE 280K SFC (ARND H925) AS LLVL ESE FLOW ADVECTING SOMEWHAT HIER DWPTS OVER NRN LWR MI INTO THE U.P. UNDER THE INVRN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE NMRS AND INCLUDE PCPN TIMING/ TYPE/AMTS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPR TROF TO THE W AND GOING HEADLINES. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DVLPG SCENARIO WITH DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PLAINS GAINING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND FOCUSING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CNTRL GRT LKS TNGT. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/NAM/CNDN/NGM SHOWING 998-999MB SFC LO NR CHI AT 00Z WED. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AT F24 WITH GFS A BIT FARTHER E. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS IN PLAY ATTM AS NOTED ABV AND LATENT HTG FM THE GRT LKS AGGREGATE/DVLPG CNVCTN IN THE MID MS VALLEY...PREFER THE DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FARTHER W TRACK OF THE NAM/CNDN/NGM NNE UP LK MI AND OVER ERY INTO SE LK SUP BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z THU. SINCE NAM FVRD MODEL...USED ITS HIER RESOLUTION OUTPUT FOR FCST DETAILS. FA TO THE LEFT OF H5-7 LO TRACK FM CNTRL WI THRU THE CNTRL FA FM IMT TO MQT AND INTO CNTRL LK SUP TNGT WL BE IN FVRBL DEFORMATION BAND AND UPSLOPE NE FLOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC LO TRACK. OTHER ENHANCEMENTS INCLUDE ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA IN PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ARND H6...PRESENCE OF BAND OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY JUST ABV THE BEST FORCING INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE/UPRIGHT CNVCTN ABV THE FA...4G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AVBL ARND H7...AND LK ENHANCEMENT WITH SHARP CYC NNE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS -6C TO -8C. GIVEN THESE FVRBL DYNAMICS...NAM/ CNDN QPF ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES IN A BAND ACRS THE CNTRL FA FM THIS EVNG THRU WED...AND NCEP SN FCST GRAPHIC JUSTIFY UPGRADE OF GOING WATCH IN THE CNTRL ZNS TO A WRNG (EVEN WITH RATHER POOR SN/LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1) WITH SN FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HGT OF THE STORM BTWN 03Z-12Z WED. EXPECT DRY SLOT/PCPN TYPE CONCERNS TO THE E OF IMT-MQT TO HOLD DOWN SN AMTS ENUF SO THAT NO HEADLINES NEEDED ATTM...ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM MAY END UP TRACKING A BIT FARTHER W DUE TO STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS AND EVEN THOUGH DVLPG LES IN THE WAKE OF THE LO ON WED MAY OR MAY NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT ONCE COLDER AIR (H85 TEMPS AOB -10C) POUR OVER LK SUP IN THE WAKE OF THE LO AND GENERATE LES ON WED. AS FOR FCST DETAILS...EXPECT SGNFT PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TDAY WHEN NAM SHOWS INCRSG UPR DVGC/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING ON THE 285K-295K SFCS AFT 21Z. PCPN TYPE WL BE A CONCERN AT FIRST WITH SFC WBLB TEMPS AOA 32 EVEN RIGHT NOW. ALTHOUGH THICKENING CLDS TDAY WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL RECOVERY IN TEMP...EXPECT AT LEAST A MIX WITH RA AT THE ONSET WITH DEPTH OF ABV FRZG LYR AOA 1K FT EVEN AT IWD. BUT THEN UPSLOPE FLOW/DYNAMIC COOLING WITH PCPN INTENSITY INCRSG THIS EVENG WL COOL THE ATMOSPHERE ENUF TO CAUSE PCPN TO CHG TO ALL SN W OF MUNISING-MNM EARLY THIS EVNG. ON WED...SYNOPTIC SCALE SN WL TRANSITION TO LES AS LO PRES/DYNAMICS EXIT TO THE NE. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS MAY EXIT...LINGERING BACKWASH MSTR IN STRG CYC NW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO AND IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND SHRTWV DIGGING IN BEHIND THE MAIN SHRTWV MAY ACT AS A PSEUDO-LK ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM WITH COLD AIR POURING OVER THE LK (H85 TEMPS DOWN AS LO AS -16C BY LATE IN THE DAY PER NAM/ UKMET). LES CHART SUGS 1-3" LK ENHANCEMENT/6 HRS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS. BEST CHC FOR GREATER ACCUMS UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 7 INCHES DURING THE DAY WL BE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. ACRS THE E...GREATER SHSN CHCS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE MRNG WHEN THE WIND SHIFTS TO MORE NW. OTRW...NAM SHOWS 50KT WINDS AS LO AS 3KT FT. AS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE LAST FEW STORMS...THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WL NOT BE IN LINE WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW (IN FACT MORE PERPENDICULAR)...SO GOING HI GALE ON THE LK APPEARS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A STORM WRNG EVEN THOUGH LLVL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. LES WL CONT WED NGT ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...BUT APRCH OF SFC RDG WL DIMINISH THE ACTIVITY AFTR MIDNGT OVER THE W UNLESS SLOWER GFS VERIFIES. COORDINATED WITH NCEP/GRB/DLH/ENVIRONMENT CAN. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MIZ001>005-009-084. WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MRNG MIZ010>011. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1220 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .AVIATION... CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME IFR REPORTS MIXED IN. WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING... AFFECTING DTW/DET OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH THROUGH MBS THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL INCREASE IN CIGS BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS YESTERDAY. SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. FRONT WILL ALSO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SO CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL IMPROVE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. && .UPDATE...1058 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 PRECIP CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SLOWLY ERODING THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDOMINATELY VFR...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. MOST PRECIP REPORTS ARE OF 10SM/-RA...ALTHOUGH DUH/TOL CAME IN AT 03Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITY. PRECIP TYPE STILL A CONCERN...AS 00Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2KFT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER... 03Z TAMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING TO THE NORTH FROM DTW SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED SURFACE LAYER BELOW 870MB...WITH DRY LAYER STILL AROUND 800MB. THIS EARLY INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO. HOWEVER HEAVIER PRECIP RETURNS HAVE LEAD TO A MIX WITH SOME GRAUPEL IN HOWELL AND WHITE LAKE. BASED ON EXPECTED DURATION BEFORE WARM ADVECTION PICKS UP FURTHER...WILL HIGHLIGHT MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH SHORT-TERM FORECASTS. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER...WITH A TIMING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO 00Z RUC13/NAM DEPICTION...IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...414 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 A RAINY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN. DESPITE THE DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUCCESSFULLY SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN AS IMPRESSIVE 850 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LIFTS NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE 850 FRONT AND RIGHT ALONG THE SLIGHTLY SPEEDIER 700 MB FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...THUS REMOVED SNOW WORDING INSTEAD TO GO WITH ALL RAIN. WITH GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING HEIGHT BOTH LOWER TO AROUND 2K FEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE QUITE GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1300 METERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OBSERVED A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MIX OVERNIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND 850 FRONT WON'T ALLOW THIS TO LAST VERY LONG. THUS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION SNOW TONIGHT. 850 FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH BY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP...BUT A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH SOME WEAK LIFT LINGERING COULD TAP OFF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIOR TO THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY...414 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED UPSTREAM HEIGHTS AND WIND FIELDS WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY EVENING... WITH STRONG WINDS USHERING VERY COLD AIR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 180KT UPPER JET CORE WAS SHOWN ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS. THIS JET WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 18Z TUES. THE GFS/UKMET/NAM INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NW LOWER MI TUES NIGHT. THE WRFXX AND CANADIAN ARE JUST A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED TOWARD THAT OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW. AT THIS TIME... LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER AND STRONG NAM SOLUTION ALTHOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT ARE MINOR. A COUPLED UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW THE UPPER WAVE TO AMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY 06Z WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN TUES EVENING. FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WITHIN THE 850-500MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SE MICHIGAN TUES AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SPELL CATEGORICAL PRECIP. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET CORE AROUND 60KTS NOSING INTO SE MICHIGAN...CREATING A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO RELY HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE 12 AND 18Z NAM SHOWS 0-3KM MUCAPE ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG...WITH 925MB LIS AROUND 0C. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE VERY STRONG SHEAR. IF BY CHANCE...A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO ADVECT INTO SE MICHIGAN...THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK THUS CONTINUES TO HAVE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-69 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH 50 TO 55KTS OF WIND DOWN TO 2K FT TUES EVENING THOUGH... EVEN WEAK CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TUES AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE STRAITS REGION... DEEPENING TO AROUND 980MB. GOOD BURST OF SUBSIDENCE LATE WED NIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER BY WED AFTERNOON... SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY EVENT OR PERHAPS ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. SOME MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW ON WED. THIS COUPLED WITH FALLING 850MB TEMPS WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO -14C BY 00Z THU IN WISCONSIN... INSTABILITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE QUITE HIGH. STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD EASILY BRING RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO SE MICHIGAN WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WED EVENING. THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA...HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE WAVE DROPPING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO WHERE LAKE EFFECT MAY BE ENHANCED DUE TO LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE. WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS. A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN COMPARISON TO THE EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS. SINCE ALL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN UPPER JET AROUND 150KTS... PREFER THE DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN. THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEEPER SOLUTION... MAY SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN. WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US... WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY. && $$ UPDATE.......BRAVENDER AVIATION.....BRAVENDER SHORT TERM...SHULER LONG TERM....CONSIDINE YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 447 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .SYNOPSIS... STORM SYS TO MOVE UP INTO AND ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE. THIS SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA BY LATER ON WED. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON WED NITE AND THU. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... 00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M30S-M40S TODAY WITH E-SE SFC WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TODAY. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE 0.2-1.1". RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH RA/SN DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA FROM THE SOUTH...CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TO MID THIS AFTERNOON. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN CAA FOR WED THRU THU. GOOD LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND AGAIN EARLY ON WED. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA LATE ON WED THRU THU. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. GOOD H85-7 FGEN STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT THE FA FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND AGAIN LATER ON WED. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH TONITE AND ON WED...THEN AOB 0.5" ON WED NITE AND THU. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO AOB 100 J/KG ON WED. LATEST NAM BUFR DATA THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOLID/FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE FA (AND ESPECIALLY ACRS MUCH OF SRN VT) TODAY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE FA BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY. ALL PCPN STILL EXPECTED TO GO OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THRU WED EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE STEADY PCPN LATER TONITE. POSSIBLE SN AMTS ACRS THE FA TODAY STILL LOOK TO BE AOB 2". WILL LET THE GOING WINTER WX HEADLINES RIDE PRETTY MUCH AS IS. FEW TWEAKS TO P-TYPE/TIMING EARLY TODAY BASED ON LATEST THINKING FROM ABOVE. GOING POP DISTRIBUTION/TEMPS ACRS THE FA STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SFC WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA BY LATER TONITE THRU MUCH OF WED. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE FCST FOR MUCH OF WED AND WED EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONGER WINDS IN SOME +TSRA ON WED. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...EXCEPT TO TWEAK WIND DIRECTIONS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION ON THU. MORE UPSLOPE SN ON THU? WE/LL HAVE TO SEE. THERE/S PLENTY OF WX TO GET THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. .AVIATION... A STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WL MV N INTO THE GRT LAKES BY TNGT AND GET WRAPPED UP IN CANADA ON WED. XCLNT WAA PTRN AND DYNAMICS WL ACCNT FOR GOOD OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN COLD...SHALLOW AIRMASS MEANING WINTRY MIX TO RAIN AS WELL AS LOW CIGS...LOW VSBY AND STG LLVL JET...MEANING DVLPG LLWS. VFR CONDS THRU 09Z THEN CIGS/VSBY DROP TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF PCPN BTWN 09-13Z ACRS TAF SITES. A 2-4 HR WINDOW OF SNPL AND RA BFR CHGOVR TO RAIN WITH IFR CONDS DVLPG WITH LIFR PSBL THRU REST OF FCST PERIOD. LLWS OF 40 KTS WL LKLY DVLP ARD 1.5-2K BTWN 06-09Z. .FIRE WEATHER... NOTE: THIS IS THE LAST DAY OF THE 2005 SEASON FOR THE FWF/FWM. PER AN ERH MANDATE THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO FIRE WX GFE GRAPHICS YEAR-ROUND. .HYDROLOGY... SOME MIXED PCPN EXPECTED ACRS THE FA EARLY TODAY (WITH AOB 0.5" OF LIQUID)...THEN EXPECTED QPF AFTER THAT (THRU 00Z THU) LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER 1-2" OF LIQUID POSSIBLE. THIS JIVES PRETTY WELL WITH THE LATEST NERFC QPS. EARLIER NERFC RUNS SHOWED NO REAL PROBLEMS ON ANY OF THE MAJOR RIVERS. MUCH OF THE EXPECTED QPF LOOKS TO BE CONVECTIVE AS WELL...SO IT SHOULDN/T NECESSARILY AFFECT ALL BASINS. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER... .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ011-012-019 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ001-002-005-009 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ028-035 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY AVIATION...SLW vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1100 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .UPDATE... ZONES WERE UPDATED TO START CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PRECIP HAS LIFTED INTO DETROIT NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A STEADY RAIN HAS ENCOMPASSED THE DETROIT METRO AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. METRO PICKED UP CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH JUST IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. THE WARM FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY EDGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING. THERE STILL EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IT WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE WE ARE ABLE TO GET BUT GIVEN THE RAIN AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. A BETTER SCENARIO ON SEVERE WEATHER FOR US WOULD BE FOR ANY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM BEING ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LLJ BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AROUND SUNSET AND ANY CONVECTION WOULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION...SETTING UP AROUND THAT TIME...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IF LOW LEVEL CAP LOSES THE BATTLE...THEN VERY GOOD BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITIES WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. WE WILL FURTHER EXAMINE THIS THREAT THROUGH THE DAY AND ALSO LOOK CLOSER AT THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 635 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005) AVIATION... PLENTY OF PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST AS IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY DZ/BR THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO MVFR AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING...TO JUST PLAIN OLD WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ALL THANKS TO A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME RATHER STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CULMINATE IN A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN...GUSTING TO 30+ KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST OVERALL FORECAST IS PRETTY EASY...WET AND WINDY...AS MAJOR STORM WRAPS UP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ALL BOMB OUT THE SURFACE LOW...BUT TRACKS/INTENSITIES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OF 08Z...GFS IS TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL DISCOUNT AS IT ENDS UP BEING THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTION AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO (AND WEAKER). GIVEN VERIFICATION IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...PREFER RUC13...WHICH IS LOCKED ON THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR. NAM IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IN ITS REPRESENTATION. THE DIFFERENCE -VS- GFS IS A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG/JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS IDEA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE GREATER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT SHOULD RACE NORTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER GIVEN THE SHEAR/DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A RATHER AGGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ON THE OCCLUDING COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL WORK AS ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL THE TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ENSUES LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR WINDS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. SETUP IS MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) SO OPTED TO FORGO THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DO EXPECT A SOLID ADVISORY (45+ MPH GUSTS) W/ THE PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TIMING...DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND 12Z RUNS OF MODELS TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO GO. BASICALLY...THE CLOSE THE SOLUTION IS TO RUC13...THE CLOSER THE NORTHWEST CWA (I-69 NORTH AND ALONG/WEST OF I-75) IS TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE TIMING & AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MINIMIZE MIXING SOMEWHAT (PERHAPS KEEPING WINDS DOWN). ALSO...THE SYSTEM RACES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO THE WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL BE HOISTING A STORM WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...AS WELL AS OUTER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE THE FUNNELING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MAXIMIZE. FROM HERE...INTO THE NORTH PART OF THE LAKE...EXPECT 55+ KNOT GUSTS PER RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS. WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT WORD TO 45 KNOT GUSTS...JUST SHORT OF STORMS. EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH FOR LAKE ST CLAIR/WESTERN LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL GALES. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST THE RUC13 WAS THUS FAR VERIFYING WELL AND FOLLOWED FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK...IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAP INTO THE 50KTS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEST PRESSURE RISE OCCURRING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIGHT NOT GET THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS ABOUT THE TALKED ABOUT DEFORMATION AXIS AND SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE BUT SLOWER IN ARRIVING WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE ARRIVAL AND ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA. BUT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GET THE LAKES ACTIVATED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND WE WILL TAPER BACK THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. SO OUR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH LAKE AGGREGATE IN PLACE BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROGRESS DURING THE DAY...SO SOME FLURRIES EARLY ON. WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE STATE...WE FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT HIGH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 35 (IF NOT 32!)...SO WE WILL UNDERCUT MACHINE NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING TO BRING ABOUT FRIDAYS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO CALMED DOWN A BIT WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC INTENSITY. WITH A NEARLY BELOW 0C SOUNDING...ALL PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW! SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS MIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO IT STILL SEEMS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE TO THE QPF. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WE REMAIN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN HINTS OF A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC! && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HU MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. STORM WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...M TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. && $$ UPDATE...SHULER SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....BGM YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 635 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .AVIATION... PLENTY OF PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST AS IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY DZ/BR THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO MVFR AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING...TO JUST PLAIN OLD WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ALL THANKS TO A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME RATHER STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CULMINATE IN A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN...GUSTING TO 30+ KNOTS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST OVERALL FORECAST IS PRETTY EASY...WET AND WINDY...AS MAJOR STORM WRAPS UP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ALL BOMB OUT THE SURFACE LOW...BUT TRACKS/INTENSITIES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OF 08Z...GFS IS TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL DISCOUNT AS IT ENDS UP BEING THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTION AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO (AND WEAKER). GIVEN VERIFICATION IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...PREFER RUC13...WHICH IS LOCKED ON THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR. NAM IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IN ITS REPRESENTATION. THE DIFFERENCE -VS- GFS IS A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG/JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS IDEA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE GREATER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT SHOULD RACE NORTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER GIVEN THE SHEAR/DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A RATHER AGGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ON THE OCCLUDING COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL WORK AS ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL THE TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ENSUES LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR WINDS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. SETUP IS MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) SO OPTED TO FORGO THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DO EXPECT A SOLID ADVISORY (45+ MPH GUSTS) W/ THE PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TIMING...DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND 12Z RUNS OF MODELS TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO GO. BASICALLY...THE CLOSE THE SOLUTION IS TO RUC13...THE CLOSER THE NORTHWEST CWA (I-69 NORTH AND ALONG/WEST OF I-75) IS TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE TIMING & AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MINIMIZE MIXING SOMEWHAT (PERHAPS KEEPING WINDS DOWN). ALSO...THE SYSTEM RACES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO THE WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL BE HOISTING A STORM WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...AS WELL AS OUTER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE THE FUNNELING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MAXIMIZE. FROM HERE...INTO THE NORTH PART OF THE LAKE...EXPECT 55+ KNOT GUSTS PER RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS. WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT WORD TO 45 KNOT GUSTS...JUST SHORT OF STORMS. EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH FOR LAKE ST CLAIR/WESTERN LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL GALES. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST THE RUC13 WAS THUS FAR VERIFYING WELL AND FOLLOWED FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK...IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAP INTO THE 50KTS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEST PRESSURE RISE OCCURRING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIGHT NOT GET THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS ABOUT THE TALKED ABOUT DEFORMATION AXIS AND SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE BUT SLOWER IN ARRIVING WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE ARRIVAL AND ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA. BUT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GET THE LAKES ACTIVATED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND WE WILL TAPER BACK THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. SO OUR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH LAKE AGGREGATE IN PLACE BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROGRESS DURING THE DAY...SO SOME FLURRIES EARLY ON. WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE STATE...WE FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT HIGH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 35 (IF NOT 32!)...SO WE WILL UNDERCUT MACHINE NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING TO BRING ABOUT FRIDAYS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO CALMED DOWN A BIT WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC INTENSITY. WITH A NEARLY BELOW 0C SOUNDING...ALL PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW! SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS MIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO IT STILL SEEMS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE TO THE QPF. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WE REMAIN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN HINTS OF A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC! && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. STORM WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. && $$ AVIATION.....DG SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....BGM YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 420 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 .DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WARM AND HUMID THIS MORNING AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES(IN THE LOWER 70S)CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DELTA. THIS AREA WAS ON THE LEFT ENTRANCE(SUBSIDENCE REGION) OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK THAT WAS HELPING MIX DOWN FAIRLY BREEZY WINDS ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RAISED CONCERNS ABOUT STRONGER WINDS LATER THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY TODAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND ACROSS TO GREENWOOD. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. OVERALL LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THIS RUN CONSISTENCY HAS LED TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ON TRACK FROM OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND NORTHWARD. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PLACE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL EXIST ABOVE VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE STILL EXPECT A SQUALL LINE WILL FORM ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES BY 6 PM. THE 06Z TUE JAN SOUNDING SHOWS NO CAP AND A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TODAY EVEN BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER OUR AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING OUR AIRMASS TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT...NEAR JACKSON BY MIDNIGHT AND NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. /22/ WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. DESPITE THIS...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND A BIT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER OUR AREA FOR A GOOD BIT OF THE DAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE... WE'LL PROBABLY SEE SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULI (LOW CLOUD NUMBER 4 FOR ANYONE KEEPING TRACK) OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEN THE NEXT CHAPTER IN THE WEATHER STORY BEGINS. WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS...AND A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THURSDAY MORNING IS JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT COLD. CONSIDERING THE FORECAST 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES...A ROMP THROUGH OUR SOUNDING AND SURFACE OBSERVATION DATABASE SHOWS LOW TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. FOR THESE REASONS...I THINK LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING COULD FEASIBLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND I PLAN ON LEANING MORE TOWARD NGM MOS NUMBERS FOR THESE TEMPERATURES. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY...WE MIGHT SEE A NICE REBOUND IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A SIDE NOTE ABOUT THURSDAY MORNING LOWS...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR MANY SPOTS. I WILL MENTION THIS IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER THIS PRODUCT. FOR NOW...FIRST THING'S FIRST. WE'VE GOT TO DEAL WITH THE REAL POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD A COUPLE OF REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIR POURING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOT NUMBER 1 SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND COULD PUSH ANOTHER "WEAK" FRONT (RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE) INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AND ALTHOUGH IT'S OUT IN "VOODOO LAND"...NUMBER 3 COULD BOTHER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. I DON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SINCE IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT WE'LL GET MUCH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE PRIOR TO EACH SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL. SIMPLY PUT...EACH OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDINAL RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN IN THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MORAL OF THE STORY -- YOU MIGHT WANT TO KEEP THE COATS HANDY. IT LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH DAY 7. THAT SAID...AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND 925 MB EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...I PLAN TO DROP FORECAST TEMPERATURES (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS) SEVERAL DEGREES. THANKS GOES OUT TO WFOS IN MEMPHIS...CALERA...SLIDELL...NORTH LITTLE ROCK...AND HUNTSVILLE FOR ALL OF THE COORDINATION AND COLLABORATION THIS MORNING. /#10/ && .AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12KTS THIS MORNING HAS THWARTED ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 1500FT HAS RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ABOVE 3000FT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BY 16Z...GREATEST CONVECTIVE RISK SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FOR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 81 44 52 26 / 60 100 0 0 MERIDIAN 80 46 52 27 / 60 100 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ036-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042- MSZ047. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ032-MSZ037-MSZ043-MSZ048- MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ034-MSZ035. LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023- LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026. AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075. && $$ 22/10 ...CORRECTED TYPO IN PARAGRAPH 3... BUTTS ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 951 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... ALL IN ALL GOING FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS OK. DO PLAN TO TWEAK POPS UP A TAD FOR NC COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO CURRENT ACTIVITY. RUC ALSO SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PERSISTING ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...PLAN TO LEAVE POPS AS IS. FOG HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH THAT IT CAN BE REMOVED WITH THE UPDATE. WILL TWEAK TEMPERATURES AS NEEDED BASED ON NUMBERS NEARER 11 AM BUT MID 70S OR SO SEEMS REASONABLE. && .MARINE... BASED ON LAST COUPLE HOURS OF BUOY OBS AND COASTAL METARS...WINDS ARE STILL WAVERING A BIT BETWEEN SE AND S...BUT COMING UP TO A MORE SOLID 15 KT IN THE NC WATERS WHERE THERE IS DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH...MAY NEED TO ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SE DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION ON INITIALIZATION TWEAKS AFTER I SEE THE 15Z OBS. SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE LOOK GOOD. && .AVIATION... SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 7 KTS AND SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY DROP DOWN OVERNIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. BR MAY BE AN ISSUE THAT THE NEXT ISSUANCE CONSIDERS. IT WAS TOO FAR OUT THIS MORNING TO MAKE A CALL ON THAT SO EARLY. SHRA IS TOO SCATTERED TO EVEN INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS POINT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 454 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... SHOWERS SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WELL INLAND. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. ON SHORE FLOW AROUND THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALREADY STEERED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SHORE AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS E. A DEEP S TO SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS WELL AS DECREASING STABILITY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. H8 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL VEER AND INCREASE TO 50+ KT AT MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO MORE S...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS STRONG HEATING ALLOWS A RESULTANT SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP. THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT IS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. TIMING OF SUCH A SCENARIO WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING. EXPECT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER W AROUND 19Z ON WED AND PUSH TO THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RESULTANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING AROUND 1/2 AN INCH OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE...DID UNDERCUT SLIGHTLY ON WED...BUT NONETHELESS...WE ARE TALKING UNSEASONABLY WARM NEXT TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS NOT FAR FROM 80 AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL OCEAN WATERS. FRONT SHOULD BARREL THROUGH HERE ENDING THIS WARM STRETCH 03Z-07Z. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... COLDEST OF AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE THU AND THU NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF H8 FRONT. LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY ON THU WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEG COOLER ON THU THAN ON WED. TEMPS MAY FLIRT WITH FREEZING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE VIRTUALLY ON TOP OF US. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SAT AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP TO OUR SE SUN-SUN NIGHT AND THEN CLOSES OFF AS IT LIFTS TO NE ON MON. AT THIS TIME NOT SURE HOW CLOSE THIS FEATURE WILL GET...BUT WITH UPPER TROUGH STILL DIGGING TO OUR WEST...AT LEAST WENT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGHEST E. MAY SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SKIRT AT LEAST THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT AT THIS TIME...KEPT POPS JUST BELOW THRESHOLD...WITH SHOWERS CONFINED TO COASTAL WATERS. AVIATION... SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME FOG IN THE AREA AND THAT IT IS IN FACT LOCALLY DENSE. CPC AND UDG HAVE HAD SOME SHORT LIVED BOUTS OF LIFR (M1/4SM AND OVC001) AND ILM EVEN SLIPPED TO IFR VSBY A FEW TIMES. MID CLOUD DECK HAS MADE SATELLITE DIAGNOSIS OF THE FOG DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. SO FAR GFS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL IMPLY LITTLE MORE THAN MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME IFR AT FLO. AGAIN THE LACK OF RELIABLE SAT INFO MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF LIFR CONDS AFFECT FLO. GFS IMPLIES VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE NAM SEEMS OVERDONE WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MARINE... GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THOUGH THE DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY GRADUAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND COLD ADVECTION ENSUES THE WINDS MAY PICK UP AND BRING SEAS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS A BIT LOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THIS WNA GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND REASONABLE AND SO WAS FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 MARINE...35 AVIATION...49 nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 430 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 .DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES TOO WARM HAVE GREATLY REDUCED SNOW POTENTIAL. SURFACE TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF RED RIVER VALLEY ATTM WHILE THE UPPER LOW SPINS NEAR THE NORTHCENTRAL ND BORDER. RADARS SHOW A BAND OF PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE) JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH WHILE SNOW IS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SNOW IS UNIMPRESSIVE BUT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BIT OF A DRY SLOT OVER MOST OF EASTERN ND. .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS OVER ND ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THIS MORNING. CANNOT SEE A REASON THAT PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE VERY MUCH AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE KS/OK BORDER. THE UPPER JET HAS FINALLY CROSSED THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL MAKE THE SYSTEM MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER MOVING MODELS OVER ND/MN TODAY (RUC FIRST THEN NAM) AS THE GFS IS FILLING THE SURFACE TROUGH TOO QUICKLY. BUT THE NAME IS HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN MT WHICH MADE THE 00Z RUN HAVE A TOO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (60 KNOTS) BY 00Z WED. THE 06Z NAM LOOKS BETTER AND ITS JET CAME DOWN TO 55. WINDY IN ANY CASE LATE TODAY. A LITTLE SNOW TODAY...ROADS BECOMING ICY AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND WIND PICKING UP LOOSE SNOW BY EVENING. ENOUGH THERE TO ONLY DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND NOT HAVE NO HEADLINES AT ALL. .LONGER TERM (WED ONWARD)...VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY THOUGH DIDN/T GET TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WARMING TREND THE 00Z MEX IS SHOWING LATER THIS WEEK. IT SHOWS MAXES REBOUNDING TO 30S EVERYWHERE ACROSS CWA BY FRI. GRIDS WERE ALREADY SHOWING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE...NOW THEY ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL MIDNIGHT CST FOR NDZ006-NDZ007-NDZ014-NDZ015-NDZ024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 6 AM CST FOR NDZ008-NDZ016-NDZ026- NDZ027-NDZ028-NDZ029-NDZ030-NDZ038-NDZ039-NDZ049-NDZ052- NDZ053-NDZ054. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-MNZ002-MNZ003-MNZ004-MNZ005-MNZ006-MNZ007-MNZ008-MNZ009- MNZ013-MNZ014-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ017-MNZ022-MNZ023-MNZ024-MNZ027- MNZ028-MNZ02 9-MNZ030-MNZ031-MNZ032-MNZ040. && $$ GV nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1118 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... UPDATED ZONES SENT OUT. ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. TEMPS HAVE WARMED A BIT ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS. MIXED PCPN HAS CHANGED OVER TO JUST RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT RAIN TO BE MIXED WITH SNOW/SLEET THRU EARLY PM IN NE VT...AND PERHAPS ACRS EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF CHMPLN/ST LWR VLYS...BUT NO SNOW ACCUM EXPECTED. REST OF FCST GENERALLY UNCHANGED. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS PM/EVENING AS WRMFRNT GRDLY LIFTS NORTH INTO RGN. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 447 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005) SYNOPSIS... STORM SYS TO MOVE UP INTO AND ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE. THIS SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA BY LATER ON WED. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON WED NITE AND THU. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... 00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M30S-M40S TODAY WITH E-SE SFC WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TODAY. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE 0.2-1.1". RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH RA/SN DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA FROM THE SOUTH...CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TO MID THIS AFTERNOON. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN CAA FOR WED THRU THU. GOOD LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND AGAIN EARLY ON WED. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA LATE ON WED THRU THU. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. GOOD H85-7 FGEN STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT THE FA FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND AGAIN LATER ON WED. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH TONITE AND ON WED...THEN AOB 0.5" ON WED NITE AND THU. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO AOB 100 J/KG ON WED. LATEST NAM BUFR DATA THERMAL PROFILES LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOLID/FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE FA (AND ESPECIALLY ACRS MUCH OF SRN VT) TODAY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE FA BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY. ALL PCPN STILL EXPECTED TO GO OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THRU WED EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE STEADY PCPN LATER TONITE. POSSIBLE SN AMTS ACRS THE FA TODAY STILL LOOK TO BE AOB 2". WILL LET THE GOING WINTER WX HEADLINES RIDE PRETTY MUCH AS IS. FEW TWEAKS TO P-TYPE/TIMING EARLY TODAY BASED ON LATEST THINKING FROM ABOVE. GOING POP DISTRIBUTION/TEMPS ACRS THE FA STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SFC WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA BY LATER TONITE THRU MUCH OF WED. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE FCST FOR MUCH OF WED AND WED EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONGER WINDS IN SOME +TSRA ON WED. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...EXCEPT TO TWEAK WIND DIRECTIONS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION ON THU. MORE UPSLOPE SN ON THU? WE/LL HAVE TO SEE. THERE/S PLENTY OF WX TO GET THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. AVIATION... A STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WL MV N INTO THE GRT LAKES BY TNGT AND GET WRAPPED UP IN CANADA ON WED. XCLNT WAA PTRN AND DYNAMICS WL ACCNT FOR GOOD OVERRUNNING PATTERN IN COLD...SHALLOW AIRMASS MEANING WINTRY MIX TO RAIN AS WELL AS LOW CIGS...LOW VSBY AND STG LLVL JET...MEANING DVLPG LLWS. VFR CONDS THRU 09Z THEN CIGS/VSBY DROP TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF PCPN BTWN 09-13Z ACRS TAF SITES. A 2-4 HR WINDOW OF SNPL AND RA BFR CHGOVR TO RAIN WITH IFR CONDS DVLPG WITH LIFR PSBL THRU REST OF FCST PERIOD. LLWS OF 40 KTS WL LKLY DVLP ARD 1.5-2K BTWN 06-09Z. FIRE WEATHER... NOTE: THIS IS THE LAST DAY OF THE 2005 SEASON FOR THE FWF/FWM. PER AN ERH MANDATE THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO FIRE WX GFE GRAPHICS YEAR-ROUND. HYDROLOGY... SOME MIXED PCPN EXPECTED ACRS THE FA EARLY TODAY (WITH AOB 0.5" OF LIQUID)...THEN EXPECTED QPF AFTER THAT (THRU 00Z THU) LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER 1-2" OF LIQUID POSSIBLE. THIS JIVES PRETTY WELL WITH THE LATEST NERFC QPS. EARLIER NERFC RUNS SHOWED NO REAL PROBLEMS ON ANY OF THE MAJOR RIVERS. MUCH OF THE EXPECTED QPF LOOKS TO BE CONVECTIVE AS WELL...SO IT SHOULDN/T NECESSARILY AFFECT ALL BASINS. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER... && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 900 AM PST TUE NOV 15 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW DOMINATING THE REGION AS RUC AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS BOTH SHOW A STRONG ANTICYCLONE NOW PARKED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE WEST COAST. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO BE A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THAT MAY PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST...A DEEP TROF EXIST OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS COLD AIR IS GENERATING A RATHER STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM MONTANA/IDAHO TO CALIFORNIA...WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ALONG THE SIERRA RANGE. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING A GOOD OFFSHORE WIND FLOW THAT MAY PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE STRONG WIND REPORTS THIS MORNING ARE STILL RATHER ISOLATED...AFTERNOON HEATING FROM DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE WIDE SPREAD STRONG WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS THINKING SO NO UPDATES NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH LIGHT VALLEY AND FOOTHILL WINDS. && .AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z (1000 PST) TODAY AS A RESULT OF FOG AND INVERSION CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND 20Z (NOON) TODAY WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES PERSISTING IN A FEW LOCALITIES. FOG WILL REFORM TONIGHT IN THE VALLEY AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR BY 08Z (MIDNIGHT) TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. REFER TO TERMINAL FORECASTS KFAT...KBFL...AND KMCE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ MOLINA ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1255 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .AVIATION... CONCERN WITH TIMING OF TSRA. CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING BACK TEMPO TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT. HOWEVER WITH INCREASED PRESSURE FALL IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VLY ANTICIPATE A RAPID NORTHWARD RESPONSE TO BEGIN SOON. KILX BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASE IN DISCRETE CELL ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT. KEPT THE STRONGEST FORECAST FOR WINDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AS LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH...GUSTS TO 60KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT MAINTAINED G45KT AS CHANCES FOR SVR TSRA AT INDIVIDUAL SITES LOWER. LES SHOULD REMAIN NO LOWER THAN MVFR WED WITH STRONG WEST FETCH LIMITING RESIDENCE TIME. && .UPDATE... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IMMINENT... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF DEEPENING 5H TROF ACROSS ERN KS. WINCHESTER AND WOLCOTT PROFILES RESPONDING WITH DRAMATIC MID LEVEL SPEED INCREASE AND BACKED IN LOWER GATES. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 0-1KM SR HELICITIES 400-650 M2/S2 IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN IL/IN. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL DEEPENING OF AROUND 160M AT 7H 21Z TUE-09Z WED. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTH IN BRINGING EVERY BIT OF PROGGED NAM/RUC 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 300-500 WITH TREMENDOUS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON ORDER OF 70-90KTS. LOWER 60S DPS ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA SO DONT THINK LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE OUTBREAK WITH MOISTURE TAP OVER GRADUALLY REDUCING STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE NOW FOR POTENTIAL LONG-TRACK TORNDAOES. MUCAPES INCREASE TO NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...LEWP/BOW STRUCTURE WITH PRIMARILY SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHTLINE WIND DAMAGE AND SECONDARLY A TORNADO RISK AS HELICITY REMAINS HIGH IN EXTREMELY LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED AT 413 AM) ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT... DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO BASE OF DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH THIS MORNING AND HELPING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TODAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS UPPER JET MAX ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH. AS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH...WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR OHIO RIVER WILL MOVE NORTH AS WELL. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AS STRONG 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER TOP. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT AND PCPN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THIS ALREADY BEGINNING. HAVE ADDED SOME TIMING TO GRIDS THIS MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND CATEGORICAL POPS FAR SOUTH...TRENDING TO CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING. BREAK IN PCPN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE NORTH. WILL NOT TRY AND DEPICT THIS IN GRIDS DUE TO DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING. WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO 60S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOWER 60S. COMBINATION OF THIS VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...AND STRONG COLD FRONT...LEAD TO THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY SPC FOR OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY AS SEEN IN THE NAM. 00Z 0-1KM HELICITY IN THE 300-400 M2/S2 RANGE OVER ENTIRE CWA WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KTS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 60KTS. INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE BY ANY MEANS OVER OUR AREA BUT ENOUGH LOW END INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE HELICITY VALUES TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION. FIRST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. STORMS RIGHT ALONG FRONT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND TAP INTO THE IMPRESSIVE HELICITY. LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE ROTATING STORMS AS FREEZING LEVELS FAVORABLE AROUND 10KFT. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS AND IMPRESSIVE 500MB 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 200M...INTENSE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND EVENT THAT OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 6TH WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA STATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER SHOULD ANY WARNINGS BE ISSUED. .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROF SHIFTS EAST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL WARMING WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALL TO BETWEEN -12C TO -14C PER NAM AND GFS...WITH MAX DELTA T VALUES OVER 20. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...FETCH NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE WITH WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWEST LAST IN THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT AND ON GRASSY AREAS DUE TO INITIALLY WARM CONDITIONS... AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. INVERSIONS HEIGHTS LOWER RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MAV MOS AND NAM MOS LOOK A LITTLE TOO COLD WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS...SO WENT CLOSE TO 25F OVER MOST AREAS. KEPT A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DUE TO SLOWER ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT OF TROF IN LOW ZONAL FLOW...WENT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT ONGOING FORECAST. ALSO...GFS THICKNESS STAY BELOW 1290 METERS OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND BELOW 1280 FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WENT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN PATTERN WITH SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ABOUT EVERY TWO DAYS...CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT FELT THIS WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING...SO LEFT DRY FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF WITH INTRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046. && $$ SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM....SKIPPER AVIATION...MURPHY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1215 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .UPDATE... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IMMINENT... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF DEEPENING 5H TROF ACROSS ERN KS. WINCHESTER AND WOLCOTT PROFILES RESPONDING WITH DRAMATIC MID LEVEL SPEED INCREASE AND BACKED IN LOWER GATES. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 0-1KM SR HELICITIES 400-650 M2/S2 IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN IL/IN. NAM12 TAKES SFC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL DEEPENING OF AROUND 160M AT 7H 21Z TUE-09Z WED. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTH IN BRINGING EVERY BIT OF PROGGED NAM/RUC 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 300-500 WITH TREMENDOUS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON ORDER OF 70-90KTS. LOWER 60S DPS ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA SO DONT THINK LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE OUTBREAK WITH MOISTURE TAP OVER GRADUALLY REDUCING STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE NOW FOR POTENTIAL LONG-TRACK TORNDAOES. MUCAPES INCREASE TO NEAR 500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS...LEWP/BOW STRUCTURE WITH PRIMARILY SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHTLINE WIND DAMAGE AND SECONDARLY A TORNADO RISK AS HELICITY REMAINS HIGH IN EXTREMELY LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED AT 413 AM) ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT... DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS DIGGING INTO BASE OF DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH THIS MORNING AND HELPING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TODAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS UPPER JET MAX ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH. AS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH...WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR OHIO RIVER WILL MOVE NORTH AS WELL. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AS STRONG 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER TOP. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT AND PCPN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW THIS ALREADY BEGINNING. HAVE ADDED SOME TIMING TO GRIDS THIS MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND CATEGORICAL POPS FAR SOUTH...TRENDING TO CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE BY LATE MORNING. BREAK IN PCPN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE NORTH. WILL NOT TRY AND DEPICT THIS IN GRIDS DUE TO DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING. WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO 60S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOWER 60S. COMBINATION OF THIS VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...LOW LCL HEIGHTS...IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...AND STRONG COLD FRONT...LEAD TO THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY SPC FOR OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY AS SEEN IN THE NAM. 00Z 0-1KM HELICITY IN THE 300-400 M2/S2 RANGE OVER ENTIRE CWA WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KTS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 60KTS. INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE BY ANY MEANS OVER OUR AREA BUT ENOUGH LOW END INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE HELICITY VALUES TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION. FIRST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. STORMS RIGHT ALONG FRONT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND TAP INTO THE IMPRESSIVE HELICITY. LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE ROTATING STORMS AS FREEZING LEVELS FAVORABLE AROUND 10KFT. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS AND IMPRESSIVE 500MB 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 200M...INTENSE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE INTENSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND EVENT THAT OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 6TH WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA STATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER SHOULD ANY WARNINGS BE ISSUED. .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING WEDNESDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROF SHIFTS EAST. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL WARMING WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALL TO BETWEEN -12C TO -14C PER NAM AND GFS...WITH MAX DELTA T VALUES OVER 20. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...FETCH NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE WITH WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWEST LAST IN THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT AND ON GRASSY AREAS DUE TO INITIALLY WARM CONDITIONS... AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. INVERSIONS HEIGHTS LOWER RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MAV MOS AND NAM MOS LOOK A LITTLE TOO COLD WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS...SO WENT CLOSE TO 25F OVER MOST AREAS. KEPT A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DUE TO SLOWER ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT OF TROF IN LOW ZONAL FLOW...WENT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT ONGOING FORECAST. ALSO...GFS THICKNESS STAY BELOW 1290 METERS OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND BELOW 1280 FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WENT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN PATTERN WITH SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ABOUT EVERY TWO DAYS...CONSIDERED ADDING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT FELT THIS WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING...SO LEFT DRY FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF WITH INTRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION... COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST THIS PACKAGE. KEPT GENERAL TREND OF PREVIOUS PACKAGES. IFR CIGS AND VIS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS REMAINDER OF NIGHT SO LOWER VIS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS. WARM FRONT NEAR OHIO RIVER LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT AND RAINFALL BEGINS TO AFFECT TAF SITES BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z. INSTABILITY NOT AS GREAT INITIALLY SO HAVE OPTED FOR RAIN AND NO THUNDER AT TAF SITES WITH THIS WAVE. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE AROUND BUT TIMING AND LOCATION SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 12Z PACKAGE. STRONG WIND FIELD AND POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED TSRA CHANCES AT BOTH SITES WITH THIS LINE. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046. && $$ SHORT TERM...MURPHY LONG TERM....SKIPPER AVIATION...LASHLEY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 345 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 ...ACTIVE WX NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES. THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. AT MID AFTERNOON...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUPERCELLS... SOME TORNADIC WAS ENTERING LMK FA AND WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECOND LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY CATCH UP WITH THE FIRST LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE LINES MERGE. THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES WITHIN 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE USED A BLEND OF CURRENT MOVEMENT...NAM AND RUC FOR FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOST AS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE ONLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS AS BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND. HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. $$ SCHOLZ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 442 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .SHORT TERM... MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO TRACK THE SFC LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST... TAKING IT WEST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z THEN TO THE DOOR PENINSULA OF WI BY 06Z. 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TO 987 MB BY 06Z AS IT EJECTS TO THE NNE. THE H5 TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY THAT TIME TOO. IT APPEARS THAT THE SE CWFA... FROM AZO TO JXN AND LAN WILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE SW. THINKING THE MOST LIKELY SVR WEATHER SCENARIO IS THAT A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL RACE RAPIDLY NE...CLIPPING THE SE CWFA. TORNADO THREAT EXISTS AS WELL GIVEN EXTREMELY HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ON THE ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2. WE'LL HAVE TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS SEEN IN LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT THOUGH...AND THAT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD SHUT THE PCPN OFF FOR A WHILE. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE STRONG GUSTY SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WILL KICK IN. COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING... PARTICULARLY IN THE WRN CWFA. DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WRAPS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER H8 TEMPS (AROUND -10C) CONTINUES POURING IN. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS FOR THE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY GRASSY SURFACE. HOWEVER ANY HEAVIER/PERSISTENT BANDS COULD BRING SOME ACCUMS ON ROADS. AM GENERALLY USING WORDING OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE FCST. H8 THERMAL TROUGH AROUND -15C COMES IN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THUS WE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO STICK AND FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DRIVING CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL COME AS A SHOCK TO MANY AS IT WILL BE THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AFTER SUCH A MILD FALL. USUALLY THE FIRST SNOW EVENT RESULTS IN SOME CARS IN DITCHES (EVEN IF IT'S JUST AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION)...AS PEOPLE ARE NOT ACCLIMATED TO OR PREPARED FOR THE CONDITIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY DIMINISH TO FLURRIES. .LONG TERM... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE CWA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING A BIT WARMER AIR NORTH INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WON/T BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHSN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY. MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHSN. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME DECENT DPVA TOO. WE/LL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND TRANSITION TO SHSN SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -10C OVER THE LAKE...CREATING DELTA T/S NEAR 20C. THAT AIR QUICKLY WARMS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEST WIND DEVELOPS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. AFTER A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. GFS SHOWS COLDER AIR BEHIND THAT WAVE...-13C 850 MB AIR...BY TUESDAY MORNING. WE/LL GO WITH SHSN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE. WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SW MI FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. && $$ MEADE 93 mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 416 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HEADING TOWARDS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN... .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINTER STORM FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT BAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND FROM FLORIDA INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THE TROUGH...SHRTWVS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AT 250MB AT 12Z...THERE WAS A 110KT JET ON THE SE SIDE OF THE KANSAS SHRTWV...WHICH HAS NOW PROPAGATED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PER PROFILER DATA. ANOTHER JET MAX OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE CAN BE SEEN REDEVELOPING IN SE KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE SE KANSAS SHRTWV...WARM ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH PROFILERS SHOWING 850MB WINDS OF 50 KT OR MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHTS FALLS FROM THE SHRTWV MOVING EASTWARD IS INDUCING PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 MB/HR NEAR PEORIA ILLINOIS. THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW...WHICH HAS A PRESSURE OF 1000MB...IS LOCATED NEAR SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS. THE WARM FRONT THEN EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO INDIANAPOLIS AND PITTSBURGH. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF THE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT (TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S). TO THE NW OF THE LOW EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH GOES ALL THE WAY INTO SE MANITOBA...AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING ALONG THE TROUGH IN WESTERN MINNESOTA...BUT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION IS IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. LOCATIONS IN WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE ALREADY SEEN MODERATE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER 1/2SM. WINTER STORM DETAILS... TRACK... DESPITE THAT THE EVENT IS NOW WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. EVEN BY 00Z...THERE IS A RANGE FROM THE 12Z RUC13 WHICH IS NEAR ROCKFORD TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH IS NE OF CHICAGO. THE 12Z NAM LIES ABOUT HALFWAY INBETWEEN. THEREFORE...BY 12Z WED...THE LOW TRACK RANGES FROM JUST NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS (RUC13) TO ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF WAWA ONTARIO (GFS/CANADIAN REGIONAL). THIS DIFFERENCE MEANS A LOT FOR WIND AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS. TRENDS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH THE GFS AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE RUC13...CLOSING IN ON THE NAM SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL FOLLOW THE NAM...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK. NEW 18Z NAM IS ALSO CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK. LOCAL HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM WILL BE USED FOR DETAILS. INTENSITY... NCEP WRF REMAINS THE DEEPEST OF ALL MODELS WITH THE LOW...REACHING 972MB AT CARIBOU ISLAND AT 12Z WED. LOCAL NAM ALSO HAS A 974MB PRESSURE. NAM IS A BIT HIGHER AT 979MB WITH THE GFS AT 985MB. TEND TO BELIEVE THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WILL PAN OUT DUE TO MANY FACTORS: PLENTY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW RELEASING LATENT HEAT...LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE WATERS...THE STRONG SHRTWV MOVING NE CAUSING RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND THE INTENSE WARM ADVECTION. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS ALSO GIVE INDICATION TO A STRONGER LOW. PRECIPITATION... RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AT A RAPID RATE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW. NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AS DOES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...INDICATING PRECIPITATION COVERING MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z. AS FOR THE TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION INITIALLY STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL WARM LEVELS. IRON MOUNTAIN AND IRONWOOD RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER...HAVE PUT IN A POTENTIAL MIX WITH SNOW GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS RAIN MIX SHOULD BE BRIEF OUT IN THE WEST AS THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT COOLS THE COLUMN. SO BY 01Z...EVERYTHING WEST OF A LINE FROM NEGAUNEE TO IRON MOUNTAIN SHOULD BE SNOW. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND INTENSIFIES TONIGHT...CAUSING INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS DUE TO DEFORMATION...THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO INTENSIFY. FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P....THE BEST SYNOPTIC OMEGA WILL INTERSECT THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER BETWEEN 12000-15000 FEET. THIS SNOW WILL THEN FALL THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF -5 TO -8C TEMPERATURES...YIELDING EXCELLENT AGGREGATION. ALSO...WITH THE WINDS NORTHEASTERLY...UPSLOPE WILL OCCUR FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST...RESULTING IN MORE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. FINALLY...SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -5 TO -6C AND LAKE TEMPS AROUND +6C...THIS WILL PROVIDE A VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE...VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR MAY OCCUR FROM THE WEST TO NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BEST TIME FOR ALL THE PARAMETERS DESCRIBED ABOVE TO INTERSECT IS PLANNED FOR BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z. EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. SHOULD STAY MAINLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM (PROGGED AT 12Z OF -7C AND AT 00Z OF -12 TO -15C)...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT TO TAKE OVER. DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW AREAS IN THE WESTERN U.P. TO GET ANOTHER 4 TO 7 INCHES. AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD ALSO GET INTO THE LAKE EFFECT. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES BECAUSE OF LAKE EFFECT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN ALL THE OTHER HEADLINES RIGHT NOW. WINDS... AS THE LOW DEEPENS TONIGHT AND TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARDS GRAND MARAIS...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ON LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN U.P.. RUC13 SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN. FOR NOW GALE WARNINGS HAVE ONLY BEEN POSTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...HAVE POSTED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS CARIBOU ISLAND...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND IT. SOME OF THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE PLAINS WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE WITH THE LOW ONLY AT 1000MB. RUC13 AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO HAVE PLACED STORM WARNINGS THERE. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. HAVE PUT OUT WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT FOR THE NW WINDS. THE OTHER HAZARD WILL BE HIGH WAVES DUE TO THE STORM FORCE WINDS. DERIVED WAVE OUTPUT SUGGEST WAVES AS HIGH AS 20 FEET CRASHING INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF MARQUETTE...THEREFORE HAVE PUT OUT A LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE FOR THAT. REST OF FORECAST... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONCERN HERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT BAND ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. 950MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS FROM THE NAM...GFS AND LOCAL HIGH RES NAM SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL AS LAKE TO 850MB DELTA-T\S CLIMB ABOVE 20. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY WITH NW FLOW. SOUNDINGS FROM THE NEWBERRY AREA HAVE INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 10000 FT WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. HAVE INSERTED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES UNDER THIS DOMINANT BAND...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE EVEN HIGHER. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT MORE SCATTERED IN THE WEST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SOUTH. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY DUE TO THE COLD 850MB TEMPS MOVING IN (-15 TO -19C). MAV COOP GUIDANCE HAS A LOW OF 2F FOR CHAMPION. HAVE LOWERED LOWS...BUT NOT TO THAT EXTENT SINCE THE WINDS WILL STAY UP. NONETHELESS...WIND CHILLS WILL END UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO NW WINDS...BUT THEN END AS WINDS TURN SW AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THIS PERIOD OF DRYING WILL BE BRIEF AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA. HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SHRTWV COMING IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO NW FLOW. EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...PREVIOUS THINKING FROM YESTERDAY FOR THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL ON TRACK...BUT THERE ARE A FEW NEW THINGS TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT. FIRST IS SATURDAY\S CLIPPER SHRTWV THAT COMES DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE ON FRIDAY. YESTERDAY\S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINTED AT A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...BUT LATEST 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS ARE BACK CLOSER TO BEFORE WITH A LOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK AND GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED WITH TONIGHT\S STORM...WILL FOLLOW THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. IN EITHER EVENT...KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE CLIPPER. NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL COME DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE ON SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OUT OF IT THOUGH BECAUSE OF A LACK OF INFLOW MOISTURE EXCEPT PERHAPS FROM THE PACIFIC. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCES OF SNOW ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. COORDINATED WITH APX...GRB...ENVIRONMENT CANADA. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MIZ001>005-009-084. WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MRNG MIZ010>011. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 1 AM TO 6 PM EST WED MIZ007-014. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 5 AM TO 6 PM EST WED MIZ006-085. STORM WARNING IN EFFECT EAST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR GALE WARNING IN EFFECT WEST 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 100 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .UPDATE... SPC HAS UPGRADED THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA INTO A MDT RISK... SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SOUTH HAVEN TO LANSING. THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN THE SLIGHT RISK. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM SQUALL LINE TYPE EVENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH ELEVATED STORMS. BASED ON LATEST PROGGED TRACK OF THE LOW TOWARD MILWAUKEE...IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SRN CWFA WILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THIS CREATES A REAL TORNADO THREAT...WITH 0-1 KM HELICITIES AROUND 400. SEE THE SWODY1 PRODUCT FROM SPC FOR MORE DETAILS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE AROUND 50 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST... SO THINGS WILL HAPPEN FAST ONCE THEY GET GOING. PER THE LATEST RUC: THE LOW SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL IL AT 21Z...LIFTING NNE AND DEEPENING TO 996 MB BY 00Z JUST WEST OF CHI. AT 03Z THE LOW SHOULD BE NORTH OF MKE AND AROUND 992 MB. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER AT 00Z...LIFTING TO THE I96 CORRIDOR BY 03Z. AFTER THAT... THE COLD FRONT RACES IN QUICKLY FROM THE SW AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z. HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE... INCLUDING THE TORNADO THREAT...LOOKS TO BE IN THE 7-10 PM TIME FRAME. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFTER PASSAGE OF THE LOW. BUFKIT SHOWS MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 45 KNOTS WINDS... ALTHOUGH 50 KNOTS LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE NE CWFA AROUND MT PLEASANT. SHOULD BE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT... POSSIBLY BRIEFLY TOUCHING WARNING CRITERIA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY ACTIVE/BUSY SEVERE WEATHER DAY MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR PARTS OF SRN LWR MI...IF THE WARM FRONT GETS IN HERE AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS CAN BE ERODED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE. WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SW MI FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. && $$ MEADE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1257 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .AVIATION... RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DETROIT AND FLINT TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SPREADING INTO MBS AS A WARM FRONT ALOFT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT INTO MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL CAUSE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE... AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEAR MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE DETROIT TAFS. AT THIS TIME HAVE INCLUDED WINDS TO 45 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TAFS BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THIS AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION AND NATURE OF STORMS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AT ALL SITES WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .UPDATE... ZONES WERE UPDATED TO START CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PRECIP HAS LIFTED INTO DETROIT NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A STEADY RAIN HAS ENCOMPASSED THE DETROIT METRO AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. METRO PICKED UP CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH JUST IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. THE WARM FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY EDGE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING. THERE STILL EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IT WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON HOW UNSTABLE WE ARE ABLE TO GET BUT GIVEN THE RAIN AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY IS GOING TO BE HARD TO COME BY. A BETTER SCENARIO ON SEVERE WEATHER FOR US WOULD BE FOR ANY DEVELOPING SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM BEING ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LLJ BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AROUND SUNSET AND ANY CONVECTION WOULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION...SETTING UP AROUND THAT TIME...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IF LOW LEVEL CAP LOSES THE BATTLE...THEN VERY GOOD BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITIES WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. WE WILL FURTHER EXAMINE THIS THREAT THROUGH THE DAY AND ALSO LOOK CLOSER AT THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 635 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005) AVIATION... PLENTY OF PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST AS IFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY DZ/BR THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO MVFR AND RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING...TO JUST PLAIN OLD WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ALL THANKS TO A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME RATHER STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CULMINATE IN A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MID/LATE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK IN...GUSTING TO 30+ KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST OVERALL FORECAST IS PRETTY EASY...WET AND WINDY...AS MAJOR STORM WRAPS UP TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE DETAILS...HOWEVER...ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ALL BOMB OUT THE SURFACE LOW...BUT TRACKS/INTENSITIES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OF 08Z...GFS IS TOO WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL DISCOUNT AS IT ENDS UP BEING THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTION AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO (AND WEAKER). GIVEN VERIFICATION IN THE FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...PREFER RUC13...WHICH IS LOCKED ON THE SURFACE LOW SO FAR. NAM IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IN ITS REPRESENTATION. THE DIFFERENCE -VS- GFS IS A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ALONG/JUST WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH THIS IDEA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD SEEM TO BE GREATER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WARM FRONT SHOULD RACE NORTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS THE ONLY QUESTIONABLE PARAMETER GIVEN THE SHEAR/DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A RATHER AGGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE ON THE OCCLUDING COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING WILL WORK AS ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL THE TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ENSUES LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR WINDS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THIS PACKAGE. SETUP IS MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) SO OPTED TO FORGO THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DO EXPECT A SOLID ADVISORY (45+ MPH GUSTS) W/ THE PEAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TIMING...DAYSHIFT CAN TAKE A LOOK AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING AND 12Z RUNS OF MODELS TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO GO. BASICALLY...THE CLOSE THE SOLUTION IS TO RUC13...THE CLOSER THE NORTHWEST CWA (I-69 NORTH AND ALONG/WEST OF I-75) IS TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. THE TIMING & AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MINIMIZE MIXING SOMEWHAT (PERHAPS KEEPING WINDS DOWN). ALSO...THE SYSTEM RACES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...SO THE WINDOW FOR VERY STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ON A RELATED NOTE...WILL BE HOISTING A STORM WARNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON...AS WELL AS OUTER SAGINAW BAY...WHERE THE FUNNELING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MAXIMIZE. FROM HERE...INTO THE NORTH PART OF THE LAKE...EXPECT 55+ KNOT GUSTS PER RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS. WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT WORD TO 45 KNOT GUSTS...JUST SHORT OF STORMS. EVEN LESS TO THE SOUTH FOR LAKE ST CLAIR/WESTERN LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL GALES. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED AT 352 AM EST THE RUC13 WAS THUS FAR VERIFYING WELL AND FOLLOWED FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK...IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC RISE WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS TAP INTO THE 50KTS BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND BEST PRESSURE RISE OCCURRING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIGHT NOT GET THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS ABOUT THE TALKED ABOUT DEFORMATION AXIS AND SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS FEATURE BUT SLOWER IN ARRIVING WHICH MIGHT RESULT IN THE LATE ARRIVAL AND ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN CWA. BUT COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GET THE LAKES ACTIVATED TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND WE WILL TAPER BACK THE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. SO OUR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S AND WITH THE WINDS EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN WITH LAKE AGGREGATE IN PLACE BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROGRESS DURING THE DAY...SO SOME FLURRIES EARLY ON. WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE STATE...WE FIND IT HARD TO ACCEPT HIGH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE 35 (IF NOT 32!)...SO WE WILL UNDERCUT MACHINE NUMBERS A FEW NOTCHES. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIVING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING TO BRING ABOUT FRIDAYS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO CALMED DOWN A BIT WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC INTENSITY. WITH A NEARLY BELOW 0C SOUNDING...ALL PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW! SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS MIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO IT STILL SEEMS ELEVATED SURFACES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HAVE TO THE QPF. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...WE REMAIN IN THIS PROGRESSIVE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EVEN HINTS OF A STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC! && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HU MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. STORM WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...M TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. && $$ UPDATE...SHULER SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....BGM AVIATION...KEK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1145 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 .UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO FCST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS 12Z MODEL RUNS STRONGLY SUPPORT GOING FCST. LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER MO ATTM WILL LIFT TO NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS NNE ACROSS FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED MORNING (CNTRL PRES POSSIBLY AS LOW AS THE HIGH 970S MB). PUSHED BACK TIMING OF LIGHT PCPN A FEW HRS THIS AFTN BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...ONCE MAIN PCPN AREA LIFTS INTO UPPER MI THIS EVENING...EXPECT INTENSE PCPN RATES FOR A NUMBER OF HRS AS FCST AREA FALLS UNDER EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID DEEPENING OF SYSTEM THRU THE COLUMN. WILL NEED TO RECONSIDER A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED MORNING/EARLY AFTN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 320 AM EST 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENIG UPR TROF OVER THE WRN PLAINS WITH SVRL SGFNT SHRTWVS AND RIBBON OF H3 WINDS UP TO 150KT/H5 WINDS UP TO 100KT ON BACK SIDE OF TROF ADVECTING H5 TEMPS AOB -35C S THRU MT HELPING TO INTENSIFY THIS FEATURE. THE MOST PRONOUNCED SHRTWV ALF IS LOCATED OVER ND...WITH ONLY WEAK INVERTED TROF AT THE SFC. SOME -RA/-SN OBSVD OVER MN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYS. STRONGER SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING 100KT H5 WIND MAX IS PRESENT OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH DVLPG SFC LO OVER NB. THIS SHRTWV BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH GLFMEX MSTR RETURNING N (H85 DWPTS UP TO 11C/PWAT UP TO 1.20 INCH AS FAR N AS LIT AT 00Z) TO CAUSE OUTBREAK OF CNVCTN IN THE MID MS VALLEY. CLOSER TO HOME...FA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RDG ACRS THE UPR UPR GRT LKS AND DRY AIR SHOWN BTWN H65-7 AND INVRN AT H9 ON THE 00Z GRB/APX SDNGS. SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD THRU THE CNTRL LKS HAS BRUSHED THE SE ZNS WITH THICKER MID CLD...BUT ASSOCIATED PCPN REMAINS TO THE S. HOWEVER...SOME SC HAS DVLPD OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL FA AT THE INVRN BASE AS NAM SHOWS MOISTENING ON THE 280K SFC (ARND H925) AS LLVL ESE FLOW ADVECTING SOMEWHAT HIER DWPTS OVER NRN LWR MI INTO THE U.P. UNDER THE INVRN. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE NMRS AND INCLUDE PCPN TIMING/ TYPE/AMTS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPR TROF TO THE W AND GOING HEADLINES. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DVLPG SCENARIO WITH DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PLAINS GAINING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND FOCUSING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CNTRL GRT LKS TNGT. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/NAM/CNDN/NGM SHOWING 998-999MB SFC LO NR CHI AT 00Z WED. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AT F24 WITH GFS A BIT FARTHER E. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS IN PLAY ATTM AS NOTED ABV AND LATENT HTG FM THE GRT LKS AGGREGATE/DVLPG CNVCTN IN THE MID MS VALLEY...PREFER THE DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FARTHER W TRACK OF THE NAM/CNDN/NGM NNE UP LK MI AND OVER ERY INTO SE LK SUP BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z THU. SINCE NAM FVRD MODEL...USED ITS HIER RESOLUTION OUTPUT FOR FCST DETAILS. FA TO THE LEFT OF H5-7 LO TRACK FM CNTRL WI THRU THE CNTRL FA FM IMT TO MQT AND INTO CNTRL LK SUP TNGT WL BE IN FVRBL DEFORMATION BAND AND UPSLOPE NE FLOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF SFC LO TRACK. OTHER ENHANCEMENTS INCLUDE ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA IN PRIME SN GROWTH LYR ARND H6...PRESENCE OF BAND OF NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY JUST ABV THE BEST FORCING INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE/UPRIGHT CNVCTN ABV THE FA...4G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AVBL ARND H7...AND LK ENHANCEMENT WITH SHARP CYC NNE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS -6C TO -8C. GIVEN THESE FVRBL DYNAMICS...NAM/ CNDN QPF ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES IN A BAND ACRS THE CNTRL FA FM THIS EVNG THRU WED...AND NCEP SN FCST GRAPHIC JUSTIFY UPGRADE OF GOING WATCH IN THE CNTRL ZNS TO A WRNG (EVEN WITH RATHER POOR SN/LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1) WITH SN FALLING AT THE RATE OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HGT OF THE STORM BTWN 03Z-12Z WED. EXPECT DRY SLOT/PCPN TYPE CONCERNS TO THE E OF IMT-MQT TO HOLD DOWN SN AMTS ENUF SO THAT NO HEADLINES NEEDED ATTM...ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM MAY END UP TRACKING A BIT FARTHER W DUE TO STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS AND EVEN THOUGH DVLPG LES IN THE WAKE OF THE LO ON WED MAY OR MAY NOT REQUIRE HEADLINES FOR ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT ONCE COLDER AIR (H85 TEMPS AOB -10C) POUR OVER LK SUP IN THE WAKE OF THE LO AND GENERATE LES ON WED. AS FOR FCST DETAILS...EXPECT SGNFT PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TDAY WHEN NAM SHOWS INCRSG UPR DVGC/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING ON THE 285K-295K SFCS AFT 21Z. PCPN TYPE WL BE A CONCERN AT FIRST WITH SFC WBLB TEMPS AOA 32 EVEN RIGHT NOW. ALTHOUGH THICKENING CLDS TDAY WL LIMIT ANY DIURNAL RECOVERY IN TEMP...EXPECT AT LEAST A MIX WITH RA AT THE ONSET WITH DEPTH OF ABV FRZG LYR AOA 1K FT EVEN AT IWD. BUT THEN UPSLOPE FLOW/DYNAMIC COOLING WITH PCPN INTENSITY INCRSG THIS EVENG WL COOL THE ATMOSPHERE ENUF TO CAUSE PCPN TO CHG TO ALL SN W OF MUNISING-MNM EARLY THIS EVNG. ON WED...SYNOPTIC SCALE SN WL TRANSITION TO LES AS LO PRES/DYNAMICS EXIT TO THE NE. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS MAY EXIT...LINGERING BACKWASH MSTR IN STRG CYC NW FLOW LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO AND IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND SHRTWV DIGGING IN BEHIND THE MAIN SHRTWV MAY ACT AS A PSEUDO-LK ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM WITH COLD AIR POURING OVER THE LK (H85 TEMPS DOWN AS LO AS -16C BY LATE IN THE DAY PER NAM/ UKMET). LES CHART SUGS 1-3" LK ENHANCEMENT/6 HRS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS. BEST CHC FOR GREATER ACCUMS UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 7 INCHES DURING THE DAY WL BE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. ACRS THE E...GREATER SHSN CHCS WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE MRNG WHEN THE WIND SHIFTS TO MORE NW. OTRW...NAM SHOWS 50KT WINDS AS LO AS 3KT FT. AS WAS NOT THE CASE IN THE LAST FEW STORMS...THE ISALLOBARIC WIND WL NOT BE IN LINE WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW (IN FACT MORE PERPENDICULAR)...SO GOING HI GALE ON THE LK APPEARS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A STORM WRNG EVEN THOUGH LLVL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. LES WL CONT WED NGT ESPECIALLY OVER THE E...BUT APRCH OF SFC RDG WL DIMINISH THE ACTIVITY AFTR MIDNGT OVER THE W UNLESS SLOWER GFS VERIFIES. COORDINATED WITH NCEP/GRB/DLH/ENVIRONMENT CAN. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MIZ001>005-009-084. WINTER STORM WARNING TNGT THROUGH WED MRNG MIZ010>011. GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ ROLFSON (UPDATE) KC (PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 105 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 .DISCUSSION... MESOSCALE UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. 18Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL AN INTERESTING SCENARIO ACROSS REGION. 18Z JAN SOUNDING HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP HAVING DEVELOPED. FARTHER SW...LCH SOUNDING IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...BUT FAIRLY WEAK WIND PROFILE. MID LEVEL WINDS MUCH STRONGER TO THE NW WHERE LZK HAD 65 KT AT 500 MB ON 18Z SOUNDING. 18Z RUC WOULD SEEM TO IMPLY THAT BEST OVERLAY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS GENERALLY N/E OF I-55 AND I-20. MLCAPE VALUES APCHG 1500 J/KG EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA ALONG WITH 0-1 KM SR HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/DYNAMICS ALSO SHOULD IMPROVE AS 20-40M 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL...THIS AREA EXPECTED TO HAVE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME AS CELLS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BUILD/MOVE INTO NE AREAS AND INTENSIFY. FARTHER S/W...MAIN RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE LINE OF STORMS FORMING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED AROUND SOMEWHAT OVER AR/LA...WHICH IS LIKELY DECREASING THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL STORMS THERE. AS LINE OF STORMS SWEEPS ACROSS REGION...MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. TIMING OF FRONT/SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO BE 22Z-00Z GRENADA TO VICKSBURG...00Z-02Z STARKVILLE TO JACKSON METRO TO NATCHEZ... 02Z-05Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026-MSZ027- MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ032-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042- MSZ043-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060- MSZ061. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019- MSZ025-MSZ034-MSZ035. LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008- LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026. AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075. && $$ ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 308 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO ERN NEB AND KS WITH 700MB LOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL IOWA AT 20Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000MB LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL WITH INVERTED TROF AXIS EXTENDING INTO NRN MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1034MB CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS CREATING QUITE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB WINDS REMAIN STRONG WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOWING 50KTS OFF FIRST FEW GATES. WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED OVER 30 MPH ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 52 MPH IN BOTH FET AND OFK. MOST GUSTS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 MPH WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EXTREME ERN NEB WHERE BEST LIFT HAS BEEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF BLOWING SNOW IN PLACES...EVEN THOUGH SNOW HAS BEEN SLUSHY AND AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED QUITE LOW WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES COMMON. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ASSOCIATED LIFT SHIFTS EAST. WINDS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8PM TO COVER LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. OTHERWISE...HAVE DOWNGRADED HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY SINCE IT HAS BEEN A STRETCH TO MEET CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z WED. RH PROFILES INDICATE STRONG DRYING AFTER 06Z AND WITH THAT...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S BY SUNRISE. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL INDICES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED THIS FAR SOUTH SO WL REMOVE SMALL POPS BUT CONTINUE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SKIRTS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE MOISTURE AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SO WILL JUST COVER THIS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERALL A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034- NEZ045-NEZ052-NEZ053-NEZ067-NEZ068. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ034-NEZ045-NEZ052-NEZ053-NEZ067-NEZ068-NEZ090-NEZ091- NEZ092-NEZ093. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ015-NEZ032-NEZ033- NEZ042-NEZ043-NEZ044-NEZ050-NEZ051-NEZ065-NEZ066-NEZ078- NEZ088-NEZ089. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-NEZ012-NEZ016- NEZ017-NEZ018-NEZ030-NEZ031. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043- IAZ055-IAZ056-IAZ069-IAZ079-IAZ080-IAZ090-IAZ091. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-IAZ055-IAZ056-IAZ069-IAZ079-IAZ080-IAZ090-IAZ091. && $$ GRIFFIS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 320 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005 .DISCUSSION...DRY FALL LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FLOW AROUND THE HEMISPHERE HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK REX BLOCKS SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. DRY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL. IN THE SHORT TERM...WIND AND RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS COULD CONTIUE ONE OR TWO HOURS BEYOND 6 PM...AS 0-1KM MEAN WINDS STAY UP AROUND 30 KNOTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BOTH BE WANING...PROVIDING LITTLE IMPETUS TO MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND BREAK THROUGH THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION. BEST DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE ALONG THE RED RIVER...WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY MARGINAL...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXPIRE. THE BIGGER STORY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES...AND A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES UNDER 28 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE RUC AND ETA ARE HANDLING DEWPOINTS FAIRLY WELL IN THE SOURCE REGION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WILL GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. ELSEWHWERE...THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY AVOID A HARD FREEZE LOOKS TO BE SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE WARMEST SOILS AND 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD STILL HIT THE FREEZING MARK. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...EACH DAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE VERY WELL ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...FEATURING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE DETAILS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL MAKE AN IMPACT ON DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERALL...A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT ONE SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS WERE NOT TOO FAR OFF...BUT DEVELOPED SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH AFFECTS TIMING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. GOING BY THE 00Z GFS...EXPECT ONE WEAK SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY...ANOTHER ON SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER ON MONDAY. THIS TIMING WOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AT NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION...THEN PUT A LID ON AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH COLD ADVECTION. EVEN IF THIS CHANGES...THERE SHOULD BE NO EXTREME TEMPERATURE CHANGES...AND WITH VERY DRY LOW LAYERS...SUSPECT THESE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL ONLY PRODUCE VIRGA OR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 24 50 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 23 52 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 28 53 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 GAGE OK 17 52 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 22 49 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 30 52 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013- OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021- OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029- OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037- OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045- OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016- OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024- OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032- OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040- OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048- OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005- OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013- OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021- OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029- OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038- OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ044. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ032-OKZ041- OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051- OKZ052. TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084- TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ088-TXZ089- TXZ090. && $$ 11/BURKE ok