####018005372#### FXUS61 KRNK 152353 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 753 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A GRADUALLY WEAKENING...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH WARMER MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH FROM A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES. THE WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH CHILLY LIGHT RAIN AND SOME AREAS OF FOG LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL...BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LATEST 18Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING ALOFT TONIGHT...LEAVING A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND FOR A LIMITED TIME...BUT SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE PUSHING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE 850-750 RANGE. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND SOME FOG. STILL LOOKS LIKE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS A BETTER BET OVER THE RIDGES. RAIN LOOKS SPOTTY AT BEST OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. SHORTWAVE OVER THE TX/AR AREA WIL BRING THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN IN BY MIDDAY MONDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST. BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP/HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO I HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL DOWN THAT WAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A WEAKENING WEDGE...AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE INTO MONDAY...I HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF WARMER TEMPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. FOR LOW TEMPS...MOS ACTUALLY LOOKED TOO COLD FOR MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...SO I RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING BULK OF RAIN EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE USING AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY IN THE EVENING BUT WEAK ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY ALLOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TO END SHOWER THREAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT FOR A FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY A LITTLE TRICK ESPECIALLY WITH MAVMOS AND METMOS DIFFERING BY 10F OR SO. WITH A COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE AND CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO WITH THE ADDITION OF A LOCAL MOS PRODUCT FOR WEIGHT. BASICALLY I HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RNK SW MOUNTAINS...WHICH COULD BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHILE THE HIGH KEEPS THE EAST COOL. UNIFORM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. CURRENT TIMING HAS SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING THEN MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE GFS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ECMWF ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS WEST TO EAST AS IT DOES NOT DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BRING A FAST FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTH. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER WITH A SLOWER MOVING FRONT AND LESS CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POP FOR THURSDAY. ONCE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST...COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WHILE MODERATING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONTINUED POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH IFR IN STRATUS THIS EVENING LOWERING TO LIFR AT TIMES IN DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE KBLF VICINITY WHERE LESS WEDGE/COOL POOL WILL ALLOW BRIEF MVFR/VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS/FOG FILL BACK IN SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THE VLIFR CONDS WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL AROUND 15Z MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BRING MOST SITES UP TO IFR/POSSIBLY LOW MVFR. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IFR AS LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO LINGER UNDER DRYING ALOFT. THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO FINALLY SCOUR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJ NEAR TERM...JJ/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...JH/JJ ####018004295#### FXUS64 KLZK 152353 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 653 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. CLEARING WILL BEGIN FIRST IN THE NORTH AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS...1500 FT. REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT CEILINGS WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY AT LLQ. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO 2SM. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS GENERATED FOG ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED AS FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 50S...AND EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. KEPT BELOW MENTION POPS IN FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG ACROSS ENTIRE CWA MONDAY MORNING AS WELL...SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE STATE TO THE EAST AS WEAK DESCENDING MOTION BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN JUST TO THE EAST...PUTTING MOST OF THE FA IN WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MONDAY...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CDFNT RMNS PROGGED TO DROP SWD THRU THE FA AT THE START OF THE PD. SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH FROPA. STAYED CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION TAKING THE FNT THRU THE REGION ON THU AND THEN STALLING IT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE NCEP PROGS. CONTD WITH CHC POPS ALONG THE FNT THU. HIGH PRES WL SHIFT E OF THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDS RETURNING. PLACED LOW POPS IN THE FCST FOR WRN PARTS OF AR AS WAA PATTERN SETS UP. COOLER TEMPS WL FOLLOW THE FNT THU AND FRI...WITH READINGS RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL LVLS BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 46 69 47 73 / 10 0 0 0 CAMDEN AR 43 73 45 78 / 20 0 0 0 HARRISON AR 43 70 48 75 / 10 0 0 0 HOT SPRINGS AR 43 71 45 77 / 10 0 0 0 LITTLE ROCK AR 46 70 48 74 / 10 0 0 0 MONTICELLO AR 47 70 47 75 / 20 10 0 0 MOUNT IDA AR 43 72 43 76 / 10 0 0 0 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 72 47 74 / 10 0 0 0 NEWPORT AR 46 70 48 73 / 10 0 0 0 PINE BLUFF AR 45 70 48 74 / 20 10 0 0 RUSSELLVILLE AR 42 72 43 75 / 10 0 0 0 SEARCY AR 47 70 48 73 / 10 0 0 0 STUTTGART AR 47 69 50 73 / 10 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...51 ####018004935#### FXUS61 KCTP 152353 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 753 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE LAST SET OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE RECENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVERRUNS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE YIELDING TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER READINGS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... THE CLOUD DECK AS SAGGED A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT ALONG A GENERAL EAST-WEST LINE RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF STATE COLLEGE. MANY AREAS IN THE SUNSHINE HAVE APPROACHED 50F ALREADY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE THE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN FAST. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE MD BORDER. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S WELL SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN HALF. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS INTO THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD START OUT CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD RIDGE DOWN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. QUITE STABLE AND HIGHER MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...OVER THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND KEEP IT COOLER IN CENTRAL AREAS THAN TODAY. MOST SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN. IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY OVER THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BEST POPS IN SREF AND POOR-MANS ENSEMBLE ARE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF PA. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LOW...POPS SUGGEST LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES WHERE IT RAINS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MOIST MID TO UPR LEVEL SWLY FLOW ACRS THE SERN TIER OF THE NATION WL KEEP THE THREAT OF LGT RA GOING INTO MON NGT...MAINLY ACROSS SCENT PENN. THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE SHEARED NEWD OVER-TOP OF A SW TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BNDRY/PW AXIS ACRS THE SRN MID ATLC. OVERALL FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THUS EXPECT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE QPF. THE LGT RNFL MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE LIKE SCTD SPRINKLES AND OCNL DRIZZLE. HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE A DRY FOR TUESDAY...THEN YIELD TO A SEWD MOVG CLD FNT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND WED NGT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRES. MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK TROUGH SPLITTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT STRETCHING W-E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. TO THE NORTH OF IT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SNEAK IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM KAOO-KMDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND THUS MORE CLOUDS ARE PRESENT. MAINLY VFR CIGS AT 3-4KFT WILL PREVAIL OVER NIGHT...BUT BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE MASON/DIXON LINE COULD SPREAD AN MVFR CIG AROUND 1800 FT AND VSBY OF 3-5SM INTO THESE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MON...BUT SHARPENING TROUGH TO THE SW WILL SPREAD MVFR CIGS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCNL -RA AND LOW CIGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AT THIS TIME ONLY LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ON TUE WITH A FNTL SYS SLATED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA WED/THUR. OUTLOOK... TUE...BECOMING VFR/LGT WINDS. WED...MVFR IN -SHRA NW...OTHERWISE VFR. THUR...MVFR WITH FROPA. FRI...MVFR CIGS NW...VFR ELSEWHERE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...GRUMM/RXR ####018001372#### FXUS64 KOHX 152354 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 654 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009 .AVIATION... ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CIGS START WITH ONSET OF -RA...09Z AT KBNA AND 10Z AT KCSV. -DZ WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS FM 15Z TO 18Z...THEN PCPN ENDS. BKN CIGS START TO LIFT BTW 15/18Z-16/00Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/ DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH YET TO COME ACROSS OUR AREA AND LOOKS LIKE ONE LAST GASP WILL BE MADE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT IN THE WAY OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. STILL EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG MONDAY MORNING WORKING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN MID STATE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER ON MONDAY UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM COMES KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR LATE WEDENSDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MILD TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER PATTERN TAKES ON MORE ZONAL FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHEN IT STARTS TO BUCKLE WITH TROUGHING OVER EASTERN US. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH MID STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOOKS TO HAVE A MIX OF PACIFIC AND CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR BEHIND IT. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04