AEO 1998 Simulation Results

Endogenous Variable:

Table #1 Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices: Production: Crude Oil & Lease Condensate.

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #1 Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices: Prices (1996 dollars per unit): World Oil Price ($ per bbl) ...

# 2) Lagged Table #1 Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices: Production: Crude Oil & Lease Condensate.

Exogenous

Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic

Variable# 1 21.09386 .006141 .011359 2.2424

Variable# 2 11.52222 1.012341 1.022852 115.76361

Constant -.390142

Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier

Variable 11.40381 .055787 .998362 -81.03071063933

Data pooled for the years 2005 to 2020 for the solutions given below:

aeo98b.ran hmac98.ran lmac98.ran hwop98.ran lwop98.ran

Estimation Results for aeo98b.ran

Table #1 Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices: Production: Crude Oil & Lease Condensate.

Year Actual Estimated %(Est-Act)/Act

2005 12.32254 12.33081 0.067

2006 12.20534 12.20866 0.027

2007 12.10194 12.09089 0.091

2008 11.99377 11.98713 0.055

2009 11.89241 11.87854 0.117

2010 11.78969 11.77682 0.109

2011 11.69125 11.67369 0.15

2012 11.57265 11.57496 0.02

2013 11.44692 11.45567 0.076

2014 11.25463 11.32913 0.662

2015 11.09442 11.13527 0.368

2016 10.9388 10.97394 0.321

2017 10.78883 10.81739 0.265

2018 10.65493 10.6666 0.109

2019 10.54534 10.53207 0.126

2020 10.42591 10.4224 0.034

Average Absolute Percent Error = .1623125