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000
FXUS04 KWBC 120954
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
553 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 12/1200 UTC THRU MAR 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
UPDATED...
OVR THE SOUTH..LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTD WITH THE 0600
UTC NCEP MODELS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND CMC ON SPECIFICS THE QPF.
HOWEVER..IN GENERAL THEY AGREED ON A SWATH OF PCPN FM CNTRL TX
NEWD ACROSS THE LWR/MID MS VLY. AS A RESULT..MOST CHANGES MADE FM
THE PRELIM TO THE FINAL DAY1 QPF WERE A REFLECTION OF CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
...SWRN U.S...
UPPER TROF NOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL FIRE SHWRS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT IS ADVANCES EWD AND WEAKENS WITH TIME. THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FROM PACIFIC MSTR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PCPN TOTALS. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES WITH KEEPING BEST SHWR ACTVTY
CONFINED TO NRN AZ/NRN NM/SWRN CO WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SET UP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID/UPPER LVL LO TRACK.
...TX TO THE SRN MID ATLC REGION...
OVRRNG PCPN EVENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY AND
TNGT AS SHRTWV ENERGY IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIFTS MSTR BEHIND A SFC
FRONT WORKING TO THE GULF COAST. UNFORTUNATELY..QPF SPECIFICS ARE
IN SHORT SUPPLY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
AS WELL AS AGREEMENT BTWN ONE ANOTHER WITH THE DEFINING/TIMING OF
PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT PROBABLY BEING
THE PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR THE DIFFERENCES. IN ADDITION...APPARENT
FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE GFS COULD BE HURTING ITS QPF FORECAST.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE..OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE GEM REGIONAL
MODEL FOR THE MOMENT AS ITS QPF SEEMS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BTWN
THE DIFFERENCES SHOWN BY OTHER GUIDANCE. FORECAST REFLECTS THE
SCENARIO OF ONE AREA OF PCPN SPREADING NEWD FM THE LWR MS VLY THRU
THE DAY TODAY WHILE A SECOND AREA REDVLPS INVOF ERN TX/WRN LA TNGT
AS ANOTHER IMPULSE WORKS ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION UNDER FVBL
DIV FLOW ALOFT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD ACCORD CONCERNING THIS
SCENARIO.
...SOUTHEAST ATLC COAST...
MODELS DLVP SHWRS ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST AS A COASTAL FRONT AIDS
LVL MSTR CNVGNC AS LLVL ELYS INCREASE THE ATLC MSTR SUPPLY. KEPT
AMTS VERY LGT HERE AS MOST ACTVTY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SRN PLAINS EWD THRU THE GULF CST STATES AND INTO THE SRN MID
ATLC REGION...
A SIGNIFICANT RNFL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED FM THE SRN PLAINS EWD THRU
THE GULF CST STATES AND INTO PTNS OF THE SRN MID ATLC REGION THIS
PD..AS SRN BRANCH RMNS ACTIVE. LATEST MDL RUNS ARE HAVING SOME
TRBL WITH S/WVS WITHIN THIS SRN BRANCH..ESP WITH THE MORE MAJOR
SYS THATS INITIALLY OVR THE SRN GT BASIN AT THE START OF THE PD.
FOR MOST OF DAY 2..INTO SAT MRNG..THIS SYS IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL
BY THE MDLS..WITH ALL TAKING IT INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUN MRNG.
AFT SUN MRNG IS WHEN MDL SOLNS DIVERGE A BIT..WITH THE NAM
SHEARING THE S/WV OUT THE QUICKEST AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH
VLY WHILE THE ECMWF HIRES KEEPS IT THE STGEST..WITH THE GFS SOLN
GENLY A COMPROMISE OF THESE 2 SOLNS. THE 00Z ECMWF HIRES MADE A
RATHER BIG CHG FM ITS PREVIOUS RUN..SO HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABT
THIS LATEST SOLN. ALSO..WITH THE SYS GENLY LIFTING OUT OF THE
MEAN TROF PSN BACK TO THE SW..DON`T SEE HOW IT SHLD STRENGTHEN..AS
PER THE ECMWF. THUS..WL LEAN TWDS A GFS SOLN HERE..TAKING THE SYS
IN A WKNG MODE UP THRU THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH RVR VLY SAT AND
SAT NGT. IN ANY CASE..SLGT BACKING OF THIS SRN BRANCH FLO SHLD
ENSURE THE CONTINUATION OF A WIDESPREAD OVRRNG RNFL EVENT FM THE
SRN PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLC AREA..WITH A SUSTAINED AND
SLOLY PROGRESSIVE 30KTS OR SO OF SSWLY LLJ BRINGING IN PWS NR 1.50
INCHES ALG THE GULF CST AND PWS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AS FAR N AS
CNTRL VA. WK SFC WV DVLPMNT AHD OF THE S/WV ACRS THE LWR MS VLY
AND CNTRL GULF CST STATES MAINLY DAY 2 SHLD ENHANCE LOW LVL CNVGNC
AND RNFL TOTALS. LEANED TWDS THE GFS QPF SOLN DAY 2..WHICH HAD
THE HVIER RNFL AXIS JUST S OF THE ECMWF HIRES..WHILE ON DAY 3
STGLY PREFERRED THE GFS QPF SOLN..WITH THE ECMWF HIRES LIKELY
HAVING TOO MUCH PCPN UP THRU THE OH RVR VLY. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL
HI ESP ON DAY 3 GIVEN SOME LACK OF MDL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENLY..AT LEAST FM THE ECMWF.
...PAC NW INTO THE NRN GT BASIN...
THE NAM MDL LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MAN OUT HERE..WITH ITS SOMEWHAT
SLOER AND MORE AMPLIFIED H5 TROF SOLN ON ITS OWN ON DAY 3..AND
THUS PREFER THE VRY AGREEABLE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE NERN PAC/GULF OF AK H5 TROF WHICH WL APCH THE PAC
NW BY SAT MRNG..DAY 2..AND MOV ESEWD THRU THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN
GT BASIN SAT AFTN AND NGT. BEING A NRN STREAM SYS..IT WON`T HAVE
A LOT OF MSTR..BUT WL HAVE STG HGT FALLS/MID LVL DYNAMICS/LRG
SCALE LIFT AND WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL
ONSHORE FLO ESP ON DAY 3. AS A RESULT..XPC MAINLY LGT TO MDT PCPN
TOTALS WITH IT ON DAY 2 MSTLY OVR THE WA CSTL RANGES AND NRN
CASCADES..WITH PCPN AMTS INCREASING ON DAY 3 AND ALSO SPREADING
SWD THRU MUCH OF WRN OR AND EWD INTO THE NRN GT BASIN. LEANED
STGLY TWD RATHER AGREEABLE GFS AND ECMWF HIRES QPF SOLNS BOTH
DAYS..WITH THE NAM LOOKING TOO LGT WITH ITS QPF MAINLY ON DAY 3.
TERRY
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 13/12Z
0.01 438753 436751 435750 433749 430750 428755 428759 428763
430767 433769 435767 438764 438762 438757 438753
0.01 380742 375724 372721 368722 364729 361756 360784 356794
353800 351804 346817 344822 343830 341836 340844 339850
337855 332867 327877 321888 317893 311892 307889 302888
299891 296896 291906 288918 285930 284942 282948 279953
275957 273958 262964 257968 254974 252979 252988 253999
256010 262018 284024 293028 307030 316038 320043 320051
323056 327060 336068 329074 324083 317083 313087 312091
312096 314102 317105 322103 327100 330104 333112 337116
342120 345125 348129 356130 365127 369112 374108 378103
381101 382098 389094 395087 396083 396077 396073 398070
402066 405059 399031 395026 391022 381013 377011 374011
368015 364020 361025 358032 357034 354035 352034 350031
349021 348006 349999 355997 359993 363988 366981 368975
366967 365958 370950 371940 371932 370925 370916 372902
374891 377878 382864 385851 387837 389822 390812 391804
390795 388777 384757 381747 380742
0.01 347745 346738 345735 342733 338732 335733 329740 325747
323758 320766 317774 311782 306788 301797 297805 297813
298819 300823 307827 313825 317822 321816 326811 328806
331799 334796 338792 343785 346776 348767 348756 347745
0.01 344175 344173 344171 343168 342166 339166 338167 339168
340171 341172 343175 344175 344175
0.25 380797 378789 376786 372788 368799 365809 359821 357826
356834 356841 354846 353857 351871 347883 341893 337896
333895 329897 325901 317912 310919 305929 297934 292946
290951 289958 290968 286975 282980 279986 279988 281995
286003 290006 297007 302004 306000 312991 323972 337954
343945 348937 355925 359913 362901 364890 367876 370864
376841 379829 380817 380797
0.25 336767 334764 334763 334764 332766 331769 331770 329773
328774 328778 331780 333777 334775 335773 336770 336768
336767
0.25 381079 381075 379072 378069 377068 376065 375064 372063
370065 369067 368068 369072 369073 370075 371079 372080
374083 375083 378084 379083 381080 381079
0.25 362093 363089 362086 361084 359082 358080 355079 352079
350082 349082 349086 349089 349091 350092 352094 355095
358096 361096 362093
0.50 374827 372824 369827 368829 368832 367833 367837 370839
372836 372835 373831 373830 374827
0.50 366860 365856 361857 359866 354882 348898 345905 343907
338910 330909 324914 319919 315926 311933 306939 302944
298950 296953 297959 299961 299966 297973 294980 292983
290989 291994 294996 299997 304991 321966 329954 333947
337939 341932 346927 353914 357904 359896 362880 366860
1.00 329934 329929 327925 323928 322931 318936 314941 312944
311948 309955 308961 310968 313964 317959 321953 324947
327941 329934
24HR QP VT 14/12Z
0.01 540207 538200 535192 530179 527172 522163 515162 511163
508165 503165 496164 489163 483165 482170 483174 487179
497188 504191 508194 513199 516205 519212 523216 526217
530222 534223 536221
0.01 494719 492715 488716 485725 479745 476756 475762 477769
476772 476777 477781 479787 483794 486801 485808 486815
487820 486828 486832 484836 481848 480857 479863 481869
485871 487875 495895 499911 502926 506951 508960 510965
516973 519973 521971 524962 525954 525945 524928 520913
517901 510875 503846 502831 501817 502794 502781 502768
501756 500745 497738 496731 494719
0.01 522266 522260 521255 516243 508221 505216 501210 498206
492203 490200 484198 475199 470201 466204 463207 461212
456223 447227 440231 436234 434237 432245 433249 436254
442256 448258 454259 465262 476268 480271 484276 489279
491283 500289 505291 512290
0.01 368839 380815 386799 386788 384774 383760 383744 382728
378713 370712 364730 356747 348758 345770 338794 332827
328849 320863 313872 300888 295895 294902 294909 293914
291918 286927 281937 280941 279945 274967 267985 272988
276989 280991 282997 287005 292012 298019 306026 315030
325035 328039 330042 328047 324052 324057 324061 327065
329069 330072 328079 329088 332098 333109 336115 340119
351123 355125 359124 359118 358111 359103 361099 364093
367090 372088 378088 381085 384079 384073 384068 384063
386057 389048 389039 388030 386023 382020 379020 377021
371018 365008 361998 358991 356985 357972 358964 359959
359946 359933 359918 361907 364894 365882 367870 366856
366848 368839
0.25 534210 535205 534202 531196 529191 526188 521182 518180
513176 512175 509179 510184 513190 517194 519198 522202
527208 530212 534210
0.25 517272 518268 518264 517258 513247 509235 502224 497216
491212 485210 482210 479212 478216 481221 486223 492230
494237 493243 490243 487241 482238 479231 477230 474231
470232 464233 461235 457236 455240 456244 468248 476253
484260 491268 499277 501280 505282 512275 517272
0.25 357812 356805 354803 352806 347812 343822 340830 334849
328866 324874 320882 315889 312893 310897 305914 301924
297931 295938 292947 291957 291971 292977 295981 300987
309989 320989 326986 330979 335971 339963 343955 346945
348934 349923 352904 354893 355882 357860 358841 357812
0.25 379050 378046 375044 369043 361043 353044 347048 344053
340058 346061 350065 355072 361072 367070 373068 374063
375057 378052 379050
0.50 531204 530204 529199 528198 526193 523192 524197 525199
528201 530204 531204
0.50 516267 516262 514258 512253 510247 508241 505238 503233
498229 495225 495227 497233 499240 501244 503251 505257
508262 510266 512269 516267
0.50 503271 502266 501265 499262 497259 496257 494254 491257
493260 494263 495264 498268 498269 500272 503273 503271
0.50 480244 479239 478237 476235 473237 472239 470240 472242
474245 477247 480244 480244
0.50 469240 467237 464237 462238 463240 466241 469240
0.50 351847 351842 349839 344843 337856 324881 318891 315897
313904 308917 303930 300943 298950 299960 300969 302977
307981 314980 319976 322972 330961 338950 341943 343937
346921 348905 350891 351872 352860 351847
0.50 364058 365054 364052 361052 358052 355054 356058 358060
361060 364058 364058
1.00 346874 346867 343864 341865 334873 325888 318906 312924
309931 307942 307952 308958 309962 312965 315966 318964
323958 329951 334943 337936 340925 343906 346885 346874
1.50 342882 340877 337876 331886 325900 320913 318919 316927
314933 313941 313946 315950 317951 322950 327946 330941
334926 337912 339897 342882
2.00 328923 330915 333905 335895 336889 334888 331893 327902
323917 321927 320930 318937 319941 321943 324943 326939
328932 328923
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
0.01 472697 470742 470786 481832 490867 500899 504916 507928
512931 516917 510894 499824 493770 492733 494692 493661
485655 476666 474680 472697
0.01 518258 518253 517249 516240 513230 510222 506216 503210
500205 499201 502196 507196 512197 515197 523197 525197
528192 527183 522177 517174 513169 503158 499153 495144
492137 488133 484129 481126 478125 474127 472129 470127
469124 464106 462099 456097 453094 450093 444093 429095
428100 426100 417100 412099 409096 406099 405106 404114
406121 410127 414133 415142 409175 409184 410193 412200
415202 418203 420209 420213 418214 412213 410214 408218
407221 404224 400227 397229 395231 394237 395240 406248
416255 421267 428272 432273 437273 449272 457275 472283
479287 488290 494291 500289 504283 506277 507266 510263
513262 517261 518258
0.01 501095 502091 502086 500084 497083 494083 491083 488082
487081 485078 484077 482074 479073 477077 478081 479085
482090 485094 488097 491098 494099 496099 499097 501095
0.01 392731 391724 389717 386710 382705 376700 369701 362709
358715 352728 349737 347742 344746 339753 336762 327793
324801 323809 320819 318827 311841 302852 297859 293867
289874 287882 284890 282898 279912 269945 263975 262980
263987 264998 266004 269006 272008 277009 281008 285006
290000 293995 295989 303972 307965 313960 326951 333947
337940 343922 347916 351915 355916 363919 371919 374916
376912 381907 386901 392900 394901 399898 400894 402889
402883 400869 397857 393838 390812 390805 389800 390790
390780 392770 394754 393739 392731
0.25 507240 506231 504225 497213 489206 480205 459209 454212
450214 443215 440215 428217 425222 425230 421233 416235
413239 415243 417246 422250 428252 439256 460259 474260
486264 490265 495263 497260 498255 498248 496241 498241
502243 505242 507240
0.25 507179 505172 502166 497162 490158 486155 480151 471143
466140 461139 455142 450146 446149 444154 446158 452162
460162 466165 471170 475173 486180 493180 498179 507179
0.25 380742 378738 376736 370736 364740 358746 354750 350756
345769 337796 332821 330827 326834 319845 305863 301871
299876 295890 287911 283925 279939 274964 273970 275980
276982 279984 283984 287981 294972 298963 318913 325901
330897 336893 340888 343882 348878 354875 360871 364865
368859 370852 375823 377809 379793 380777 381764 381750
380742
0.50 491252 491247 486242 483240 480235 479232 476230 470229
471223 474220 485222 490221 490218 487213 485210 482209
472210 467211 461211 455215 449217 445217 437219 432220
429224 430229 430233 429236 421238 419241 421243 426246
435250 443251 453251 461250 471249 482251 486254 490253
491252
0.50 486170 484167 484165 481162 480160 479159 476156 474154
473154 470151 468150 465152 464153 465157 467160 468162
470163 472165 475167 475168 478169 481170 484170 486170
0.50 373774 370765 366761 360760 357764 348785 340808 337820
334829 328841 320851 309866 305872 303877 300889 294909
289920 286932 283943 281953 278964 279972 280975 282976
286974 290970 294961 308919 314907 320896 336882 342872
351864 356860 359855 362846 372795 373782 373774
1.00 462221 461217 458218 455219 457222 460223 462221
1.00 457240 457236 455233 451230 448225 445223 442223 444227
444229 440235 438238 439243 444245 447245 453243 457240
1.00 355816 354814 351816 349819 347823 345828 344832 342837
341842 340848 340851 343852 346849 349844 352840 353835
353832 354825 355820 355816
1.00 325870 324869 321870 319871 316873 314875 312878 311878
310882 310885 312888 314888 316887 316886 319884 320882
321881 322878 323877 324874 325872 325870
$$
