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000 FXUS04 KWBC 140627 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 226 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAR 14/1200 UTC THRU MAR 15/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...NWRN U.S... NCEP AND NON-NCEP MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT HERE AS PCPN IS TRIGGERED BY A SHRTWV ADVANCING TO THE PAC NW COAST BY MID PD AND IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SECOND SYSTEM FCST TO APCH THE COAST BY SUNDAY MRNG. A STRONG LOW TO MID LVL ONSHORE MSTR FETCH WILL BE AVBL THRU THE FCST PERIOD TO SUPPORT THE EVENT WITH MDT TO HVY PCPN TOTALS EXPECTED. WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS WELL AS STRONG MODEL CONTINUITY FM RUN TO RUN. ..INVOF THE SERN U.S... WITH ONE EXCEPTION..THE GFS..GEM REGIONAL AND 13/1200 UTC ECMWF QPFS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD ACCORD HANDLING THE QPF ASOCTD WITH SHRTWV ENERGY BEING SHEARED NEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THE ONCE EXCEPTION IS THAT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH ADVANCING THE PCPN EWD..A BIAS NOTED FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. BELIEVE THE BEST BET FOR NOW IS TO SLOW THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE GFS QPF BRINGING IT MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW TNGTS GEM REGIONAL. OTHER THAN THE DISPLACEMENT ISSUE..BELIEVE THE GFS RNFL TOTALS AND AREAL COVERAGE ARE VERY REASONABLE GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBLTY AND THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. THE NAMS QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEEMS UNDERDONE AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO FIT ITS OWN MASS FIELD DETAILS. KORTY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 15/12Z 0.01 540202 539194 536185 533176 531172 528169 523160 518152 512147 509144 503141 481125 474123 469123 467124 463127 462127 458123 456118 454111 455099 453095 449094 441096 418111 413112 410114 408119 410122 418124 420127 420133 419141 417148 416154 416161 417164 417168 414174 414180 416184 420188 422191 428192 433186 435184 435187 435194 437197 438202 439205 434206 421198 418201 418204 420212 419215 414212 410210 406207 394200 389202 386207 388212 390217 384219 380226 382233 386239 392244 402253 409258 418262 423265 429265 435265 446262 453260 460261 471265 480269 487277 491285 495291 500295 506294 512289 514286 516282 518278 519270 520259 520250 519244 517233 517229 518225 521225 526233 530234 534230 0.01 476198 477194 476191 473190 470191 468192 467192 463194 463195 461199 463202 465202 468201 469200 472199 475199 476198 0.01 398723 397716 395710 391704 387703 383703 378704 370708 362714 355723 348734 340745 336752 331761 330764 327768 324772 324777 339785 326801 323809 321819 321824 319828 313834 304843 300847 296852 292859 288869 284885 276901 265915 252933 248939 245946 243956 242965 242975 246985 252995 254997 261997 268995 275990 281984 286977 297961 300955 301949 303938 307930 311924 314920 318918 323919 325924 325938 328951 331964 333970 336977 338978 343979 347980 352978 356977 360974 365966 370957 374947 375942 375932 375924 375916 374903 374898 376893 380885 386876 397852 403842 407833 413814 413804 412796 408790 400784 398779 398773 399761 399754 399744 398723 0.01 441125 440119 438117 435118 431123 428127 426131 426139 425147 424154 427159 430159 429153 430147 430143 432136 435132 438128 441125 0.01 387076 384072 379070 375065 370061 367061 362063 358065 355072 350075 347075 341073 335071 330072 326074 324078 321088 318089 315093 321101 312104 312109 318113 323111 328111 332112 337118 340123 344126 351126 354124 356121 354115 351110 349106 348101 349098 353095 359094 363089 363084 367083 376087 381086 384079 387076 0.25 531204 531199 529189 524178 516167 508159 506154 500151 489144 488148 485152 482152 476150 471147 468145 465146 462148 458150 454150 447150 444150 440153 441159 446164 449167 451169 453167 456160 458158 461158 464161 467166 469170 473171 477173 486182 495190 499192 505194 511197 516201 524210 530208 531204 0.25 513266 514257 513248 511238 509232 507228 500214 496206 492203 486202 458210 448213 431214 426217 422223 421225 416227 415227 412224 402231 396234 398240 402244 409249 422254 430255 436254 452252 464251 472253 476254 481257 485262 490268 494276 496280 501284 506285 510279 513266 0.25 494240 493239 491235 491234 489230 487228 486227 483226 480226 480227 481231 482233 485236 485237 488236 489238 490239 493241 494240 0.25 386751 385743 382735 378729 374727 368729 366733 361745 358756 354768 352778 347791 342801 336810 331819 326832 319841 313848 306856 302862 298869 291887 287898 284910 283920 282931 281944 282947 285947 290944 294935 300927 305918 312906 317898 320895 326892 335891 339891 343891 347888 351885 359879 369873 374868 378863 386853 392843 395830 395824 394819 392815 389804 388797 387783 386772 387762 386751 0.50 506277 504267 499260 488242 484243 480234 475226 474224 481223 486223 492230 496238 503248 504248 506244 506238 504233 500224 498218 495213 488208 484207 479207 472211 464213 431218 428219 424222 426231 422231 416231 412231 408233 406235 405237 405240 412246 419249 428251 437251 444250 462247 468247 478248 483250 486255 492265 497274 499278 503279 506277 0.50 492171 491166 490165 487163 485161 484160 482158 479158 476158 475159 476162 476163 478166 480168 481169 483172 486174 489173 492171 0.50 373758 372751 369747 366750 364755 357776 351793 347803 342813 321845 315853 310858 303866 299875 293892 291901 289914 288923 289928 290930 292930 298923 304913 307906 311899 317892 322888 328885 346883 355875 362868 375854 380844 383831 383827 383820 380810 377800 376786 373770 373758 1.00 463238 462233 459229 456232 452232 446233 439235 433237 425237 421236 417236 415240 420245 426246 434245 441245 447244 454243 460240 463238 1.00 463225 465222 463220 458218 453218 449218 443219 439220 436223 432224 435229 441229 447229 450228 455227 459227 463225 1.00 361840 359826 355809 352810 349815 347820 343825 331840 326849 319859 305873 302881 299892 297902 299908 303904 305900 310892 316885 326879 331877 337876 343872 347867 351860 354855 357850 361840 1.50 449238 449237 446237 449238 449238 1.50 451222 451221 448220 446220 445220 442222 441223 442224 444226 448225 451222 451222 1.50 424242 421240 420241 421242 424242 424242 1.50 345842 345838 342838 340840 337845 332850 328856 324860 320866 320870 322872 326873 330870 335865 338859 341853 343846 345842 1.50 310882 310878 309877 307879 306880 305883 307885 310882 310882 $$