000
FXUS04 KWBC 140627
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 14/1200 UTC THRU MAR 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NWRN U.S...

NCEP AND NON-NCEP MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT HERE AS
PCPN IS TRIGGERED BY A SHRTWV ADVANCING TO THE PAC NW COAST BY MID
PD AND IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SECOND SYSTEM FCST TO APCH THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MRNG.  A STRONG LOW TO MID LVL ONSHORE MSTR FETCH
WILL BE AVBL THRU THE FCST PERIOD TO SUPPORT THE EVENT WITH MDT TO
HVY PCPN TOTALS EXPECTED.  WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HERE
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS WELL AS STRONG MODEL CONTINUITY
FM RUN TO RUN.

..INVOF THE SERN U.S...

WITH ONE EXCEPTION..THE GFS..GEM REGIONAL AND 13/1200 UTC ECMWF
QPFS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD ACCORD HANDLING THE QPF ASOCTD WITH
SHRTWV ENERGY BEING SHEARED NEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S.  THE ONCE
EXCEPTION IS THAT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH
ADVANCING THE PCPN EWD..A BIAS NOTED FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
BELIEVE THE BEST BET FOR NOW IS TO SLOW THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE GFS
QPF BRINGING IT MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BUT NOT AS
SLOW TNGTS GEM REGIONAL.  OTHER THAN THE DISPLACEMENT
ISSUE..BELIEVE THE GFS RNFL TOTALS AND AREAL COVERAGE ARE VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBLTY AND THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT.  THE NAMS QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEEMS
UNDERDONE AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO FIT ITS OWN MASS FIELD DETAILS.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 540202 539194 536185 533176 531172 528169 523160 518152
      512147 509144 503141 481125 474123 469123 467124 463127
      462127 458123 456118 454111 455099 453095 449094 441096
      418111 413112 410114 408119 410122 418124 420127 420133
      419141 417148 416154 416161 417164 417168 414174 414180
      416184 420188 422191 428192 433186 435184 435187 435194
      437197 438202 439205 434206 421198 418201 418204 420212
      419215 414212 410210 406207 394200 389202 386207 388212
      390217 384219 380226 382233 386239 392244 402253 409258
      418262 423265 429265 435265 446262 453260 460261 471265
      480269 487277 491285 495291 500295 506294 512289 514286
      516282 518278 519270 520259 520250 519244 517233 517229
      518225 521225 526233 530234 534230
 0.01 476198 477194 476191 473190 470191 468192 467192 463194
      463195 461199 463202 465202 468201 469200 472199 475199
      476198
 0.01 398723 397716 395710 391704 387703 383703 378704 370708
      362714 355723 348734 340745 336752 331761 330764 327768
      324772 324777 339785 326801 323809 321819 321824 319828
      313834 304843 300847 296852 292859 288869 284885 276901
      265915 252933 248939 245946 243956 242965 242975 246985
      252995 254997 261997 268995 275990 281984 286977 297961
      300955 301949 303938 307930 311924 314920 318918 323919
      325924 325938 328951 331964 333970 336977 338978 343979
      347980 352978 356977 360974 365966 370957 374947 375942
      375932 375924 375916 374903 374898 376893 380885 386876
      397852 403842 407833 413814 413804 412796 408790 400784
      398779 398773 399761 399754 399744 398723
 0.01 441125 440119 438117 435118 431123 428127 426131 426139
      425147 424154 427159 430159 429153 430147 430143 432136
      435132 438128 441125
 0.01 387076 384072 379070 375065 370061 367061 362063 358065
      355072 350075 347075 341073 335071 330072 326074 324078
      321088 318089 315093 321101 312104 312109 318113 323111
      328111 332112 337118 340123 344126 351126 354124 356121
      354115 351110 349106 348101 349098 353095 359094 363089
      363084 367083 376087 381086 384079 387076
 0.25 531204 531199 529189 524178 516167 508159 506154 500151
      489144 488148 485152 482152 476150 471147 468145 465146
      462148 458150 454150 447150 444150 440153 441159 446164
      449167 451169 453167 456160 458158 461158 464161 467166
      469170 473171 477173 486182 495190 499192 505194 511197
      516201 524210 530208 531204
 0.25 513266 514257 513248 511238 509232 507228 500214 496206
      492203 486202 458210 448213 431214 426217 422223 421225
      416227 415227 412224 402231 396234 398240 402244 409249
      422254 430255 436254 452252 464251 472253 476254 481257
      485262 490268 494276 496280 501284 506285 510279 513266
 0.25 494240 493239 491235 491234 489230 487228 486227 483226
      480226 480227 481231 482233 485236 485237 488236 489238
      490239 493241 494240
 0.25 386751 385743 382735 378729 374727 368729 366733 361745
      358756 354768 352778 347791 342801 336810 331819 326832
      319841 313848 306856 302862 298869 291887 287898 284910
      283920 282931 281944 282947 285947 290944 294935 300927
      305918 312906 317898 320895 326892 335891 339891 343891
      347888 351885 359879 369873 374868 378863 386853 392843
      395830 395824 394819 392815 389804 388797 387783 386772
      387762 386751
 0.50 506277 504267 499260 488242 484243 480234 475226 474224
      481223 486223 492230 496238 503248 504248 506244 506238
      504233 500224 498218 495213 488208 484207 479207 472211
      464213 431218 428219 424222 426231 422231 416231 412231
      408233 406235 405237 405240 412246 419249 428251 437251
      444250 462247 468247 478248 483250 486255 492265 497274
      499278 503279 506277
 0.50 492171 491166 490165 487163 485161 484160 482158 479158
      476158 475159 476162 476163 478166 480168 481169 483172
      486174 489173 492171
 0.50 373758 372751 369747 366750 364755 357776 351793 347803
      342813 321845 315853 310858 303866 299875 293892 291901
      289914 288923 289928 290930 292930 298923 304913 307906
      311899 317892 322888 328885 346883 355875 362868 375854
      380844 383831 383827 383820 380810 377800 376786 373770
      373758
 1.00 463238 462233 459229 456232 452232 446233 439235 433237
      425237 421236 417236 415240 420245 426246 434245 441245
      447244 454243 460240 463238
 1.00 463225 465222 463220 458218 453218 449218 443219 439220
      436223 432224 435229 441229 447229 450228 455227 459227
      463225
 1.00 361840 359826 355809 352810 349815 347820 343825 331840
      326849 319859 305873 302881 299892 297902 299908 303904
      305900 310892 316885 326879 331877 337876 343872 347867
      351860 354855 357850 361840
 1.50 449238 449237 446237 449238 449238
 1.50 451222 451221 448220 446220 445220 442222 441223 442224
      444226 448225 451222 451222
 1.50 424242 421240 420241 421242 424242 424242
 1.50 345842 345838 342838 340840 337845 332850 328856 324860
      320866 320870 322872 326873 330870 335865 338859 341853
      343846 345842
 1.50 310882 310878 309877 307879 306880 305883 307885 310882
      310882

$$