000
FXUS04 KWBC 150825
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
424 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 15/1200 UTC THRU MAR 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...NWRN U.S...

COMBINATION OF A SHRTWV SWINGING INLAND BY MID PD AND INTENSE WLY
LOW TO MID LVL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING VERY HVY PCPN TOTALS TO
THE PAC NW THIS PD.  MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DETAILS..MODELING THE HEAVIEST PCPN TOTALS TO THE ASOCTD FRONTAL
BAND AS IT SINKS SWD TO A PSN NEAR SWRN OR/NERN CA BY SUNDAY EVNG.
 IN ADDITION..SGFNT POST FRONTAL SHWR ACTVTY IS EXPECTED AS
ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TAPPING A CONTG
ONSHORE MSTR FETCH.  MDT PCPN AMTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MTNS OF ID/NWRN MT/NWRN WY FAVORED BY STRONG WLY OROGRAPHICS.
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL QPF AGREEMENT..STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THEIR
GUIDANCE FOR THE FCST.

..WRN GULF REGION/SOUTHEAST U.S...

ONE SHRTWV NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE SERN U.S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE TO THE WRN GULF REGION BY THIS EVNG.
THE NAM AND GFS QPFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HANDLING THE PCPN
WITH THE FIRST SHRTWV EARLY IN THE PD OVR THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH
THEY APPEAR THEY WILL BE SHY ON AMTS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  OF MORE CONCERN IS THEIR
HANDLING OF PCPN WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV THIS EVNG AND TNGT.  AS
WAS THE CASE YDA..THE GFSS OWN RH FCST AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE
NCEP MODELS WILL AGAIN BE UNDERDONE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE PCPN
SHIELD WHERE FVBL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE IN PLACE UNDER A
REGION OF FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  IN ADDITION..THE
GEM REGIONAL QPF INDCS HEAVIER PCPN TOTALS FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AND FOR NOW OPTED FOR A MORE NRN DISPLACEMENT THAN THE NCEP MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING.  FINALLY..GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING PCPN
AMTS AND COVERAGE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND FOR THAT REASON UPPED AMTS SLIGHTLY OVER GUIDANCE.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATL STATES...

SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD EXISTS ON THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SEMI-SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATL
REGION ON MON BEFORE SLIDING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUES. THE
ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION W/ NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER
MODELS... WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FACTORS ON MON IS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN A RATHER RICH MOISTURE
LADED REGION AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL/CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/NAM AND
21Z SREF MEAN... SINCE THIS SOLUTION HAD A BIT MORE SUPPORT FROM
THE CANADIAN AND UKMET. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOLID STRIPE OF A
.50 INCH TO 1 PLUS INCH QPF AMOUNTS FROM SRN MS/AL INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND NEWRD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN GA INTO ERN SC/NC ON MON
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON TUES.

...PAC NW AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

THE CONSTANT AND PERSISTENT PAC ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NW AND
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AFTER SUN... AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE UPPER VORTEX DIGGING FROM AK
SEWRD INTO THE NERN PAC... THUS LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NERN PAC
AND ALLOWING THE ONSHORE FETCH AND UPPER JET TO WEAKEN. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THIS FCST SCENARIO RELATIVELY WELL AND HPC
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND 21Z SREF MEAN
FOR QPF AMOUNTS BOTH DAYS. ON MON... EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO
INUNDATE WA/OR INTO NRN CA AND ENOUGH PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
IMPACT AREAS DOWNSTREAM WITH OROGRAPHIC PRECIP. THEN TUES THE AXIS
WILL FOCUS ON WA AND THE NRN PART OF OR INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

...NRN PLAINS TO GRT LAKES...
MARITIME UPPER DYNAMICS EJECTING OUT INTO THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL STREAK
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. GENERALLY AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING/LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP FROM ND/SD EASTWARD INTO THE GRT LAKES. IN FACT... LL
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE SCARCE DUE TO THE MASSIVE SURFACE RIDGE
SPRAWLING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

KORTY/MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 534210 536206 536201 534195 532190 530183 528169 522163
      518156 511149 506143 501138 498135 495131 491126 488124
      483121 479121 475119 475113 476105 471098 471092 470090
      468090 462097 458098 456096 453093 448091 439088 433089
      430088 426085 423087 423093 424096 427099 426101 422107
      420111 415112 412117 414122 426133 428135 427140 427148
      426157 421153 417154 415161 415167 413175 415180 417184
      420185 423190 426193 429191 432191 433196 438206 433204
      430201 423196 414196 408198 404201 401201 396198 387195
      383194 379196 377202 379208 382212 384216 377218 376215
      373214 370215 367221 369229 373235 379242 386248 402257
      418262 425262 429264 447262 452262 455261 464261 470261
      475263 479265 483267 485270 490277 498284 502287 506287
      510286 513284 516278 517271 518263 517258 517251 516246
      514236 515223 519215 526214 531213 534210
 0.01 477687 473676 469669 466669 464671 462675 461682 460692
      461699 463704 468714 472721 475724 477722 477712 478702
      477692 477687
 0.01 449126 449125 446125 443124 440122 437122 434121 432124
      431126 431128 429131 431132 432132 434131 437132 440129
      443126 446127 449127 449126
 0.01 390740 388732 386726 383721 380718 372716 368716 364719
      361721 356721 353723 349727 344732 339751 333768 327780
      324787 322795 321804 317811 309825 301835 293851 287866
      283880 279895 277910 273918 269925 262938 258950 255967
      256976 259981 266986 271991 276992 282988 292979 304966
      311954 334936 339932 341928 346920 348913 348903 351895
      354889 356885 356882 358873 360873 364876 369876 373872
      377866 378856 378847 380840 386822 397806 403790 401786
      397785 395785 392782 391764 390754 390749 390740
 0.25 523192 521184 517178 510169 505162 501158 496144 492138
      488133 482129 478128 474127 471128 468134 454132 453136
      453142 448146 445145 439141 436142 434145 433149 434157
      437164 442168 445174 447179 446183 452193 455188 459186
      462183 464179 465174 467173 475172 480177 487182 497180
      502180 506181 510186 519196 522196 523192
 0.25 511255 510241 508236 506231 500214 496208 492205 487203
      482203 475205 468208 462207 459207 456210 450213 440212
      423205 421216 418218 417215 414212 411212 406210 399205
      393202 389202 386204 388209 394217 399223 394226 388225
      383226 381229 382233 385239 391245 400250 409254 424257
      433256 441255 455252 465252 474254 481258 488265 494272
      499276 503276 505272 506266 507259 511255
 0.25 490234 488230 487228 486227 483226 480225 477225 476225
      477226 480230 482233 485235 488235 490234
 0.25 451113 449109 447106 446105 445101 444100 441099 438099
      436100 435101 433104 432105 430108 430112 432115 435115
      438114 440115 443117 446118 448117 449116 451113
 0.25 376756 375750 373745 368741 363740 355742 350748 346753
      344763 340779 338792 334803 333808 330813 310834 304844
      300852 292878 289890 287901 285916 284923 282928 274950
      270963 269971 272977 278978 283975 291967 319929 334907
      339896 340890 341883 339873 341866 344860 347856 354846
      360836 366822 370808 373797 374790 375782 376767 376756
 0.50 501270 502265 501262 499256 497250 493244 489240 484239
      476231 469230 468226 472223 478221 485223 489225 492230
      498244 501247 504249 506248 507244 506240 504234 502228
      500223 498216 494211 488208 482208 474210 470211 464211
      461210 459211 453213 443215 435214 426211 424216 421221
      421225 417227 415224 416220 414216 408214 399208 394205
      390206 394214 401220 402225 399226 394228 391228 387231
      388236 390239 397246 403250 410251 420253 430253 439251
      449248 459247 462246 468247 479252 486258 492265 497270
      501270
 0.50 488170 487164 484160 476152 468145 465143 459143 453148
      447148 442146 438146 437149 437153 438157 443162 449171
      451173 453171 455167 458161 461159 466162 469165 481169
      484171 487172 488170
 0.50 482134 480133 478133 477133 477135 480134 482134
 0.50 445109 444107 441104 438104 435108 438111 441111 443113
      445109
 0.50 368761 367756 365751 359751 352755 350761 348772 347783
      347791 346798 341809 336817 326825 315833 311838 308842
      304850 300861 298874 295885 294890 295897 294903 292909
      284930 281940 278951 276963 276971 279973 286968 292960
      315924 321912 328904 333894 335889 335881 334874 335866
      337861 341856 346848 352839 359827 363815 366804 367792
      368782 368773 368761
 1.00 496227 496222 496221 493221 492221 493221 495226 495227
      496227
 1.00 479239 478238 476237 475237 475239 478240 479239
 1.00 463225 465221 464217 461216 455216 446218 437218 429219
      424222 425226 425230 423231 414229 413227 412223 411220
      407222 407229 402231 399231 395232 393237 395241 399244
      403247 408248 419249 426250 434248 441243 445241 446239
      444235 447231 453226 462225 463225
 1.00 453159 452158 451155 450154 447152 444152 441153 443158
      444158 446160 449162 452161 453159
 1.00 357804 354805 354806 355807 357805 357804
 1.00 355816 355812 355809 352809 352810 351813 350815 349818
      349819 349823 351823 353821 355817 355816
 1.00 326863 322861 320861 319863 319869 319887 316895 310900
      303904 298911 295918 293926 289939 293942 296940 299937
      302930 306924 313911 322898 324889 325886 324881 326871
      326863
 1.50 448225 445221 442221 439221 436221 434221 433221 430222
      428223 429227 429230 432232 435231 436230 438228 441227
      444226 448225
 1.50 433241 431234 429232 427233 425235 420232 414231 410230
      405234 399234 396237 397239 400242 406244 412245 420247
      427247 431245 433241 433241
 2.00 429244 428238 422235 417233 411232 407235 404237 398238
      403242 409242 415244 420246 424246 429244
 3.00 423242 422239 421237 419236 416234 414235 413236 410238
      413239 415241 418242 421242 423242

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 524261 523255 521248 519241 515233 505213 501207 501203
      504200 507200 510203 513208 519213 526215 530219 533220
      536216 538208 538202 537196 537189 534183 529174 521163
      512152 504144 495136 488129 477122 474120 473115 475111
      476106 475101 473091 473085 474078 476069 485045 488031
      489021 490013 492999 492989 491982 488975 487963 488956
      490948 493934 491927 488921 484918 480918 474920 472921
      470926 467938 464950 462965 461979 460988 460997 459004
      457011 455018 453024 450039 448045 447052 445058 443062
      439066 437068 437073 442076 446080 447084 446086 442086
      430085 424086 422088 423092 426098 426100 417106 413108
      408109 405112 403117 405121 411123 417126 419130 417142
      414154 411173 411179 412184 412188 411191 408195 403197
      397197 388192 381189 378189 376191 374194 374197 376202
      382211 385214 384217 381218 378218 374215 370216 368219
      372230 377240 381245 387249 395254 401257 407258 421262
      426263 430263 439260 450257 454256 460256 466258 472262
      479265 482269 490278 497284 506292 509294 511294 513290
 0.01 481199 483197 483194 480191 473186 469185 465187 460190
      454197 451203 449206 450209 456209 460202 461204 465205
      468205 471203 478200 481199
 0.01 422784 422778 421772 419767 415764 402766 397764 392758
      388751 383744 378739 371735 361734 354734 348735 341741
      335748 326758 322763 319769 314781 309794 306801 302807
      296817 291829 285841 279853 276865 272877 270893 269899
      268907 266918 265926 265932 266942 267947 269952 272958
      279959 283956 287950 302930 306923 310918 317908 324898
      333885 340875 349865 358855 365851 375847 383846 389847
      399854 403851 404848 405840 403833 401828 402823 404820
      412812 416808 418804 421793 422784
 0.25 516272 518266 518257 515249 508230 504222 499215 493209
      489207 483206 475207 468210 461211 454214 445215 439214
      431212 429210 426208 423208 416209 408210 395203 390204
      388206 388208 391213 395218 398223 395226 391228 389230
      388236 390239 393243 399246 406248 415249 429246 445248
      462248 471251 479255 485260 491268 497276 502282 506283
      508281 514276 516272
 0.25 525198 523188 522182 518177 516174 511170 507168 502166
      500168 500172 502178 506181 509184 514189 517193 519196
      522198 525198
 0.25 482160 476156 472150 466133 461128 454132 451139 448142
      445142 441141 439139 436139 434144 432152 432160 431163
      429164 426168 427174 433177 437178 439177 447177 451176
      453172 456164 458160 461158 470159 478163 482160
 0.25 466106 465101 461097 458093 455090 450092 444094 440094
      435096 432100 430105 428108 426112 428116 432117 436117
      440117 446121 450123 453122 456120 458114 462110 466106
 0.25 374754 371747 366745 358743 349746 343750 340753 333763
      330770 322789 316798 311803 306812 302821 299831 296840
      295848 293858 287876 281894 279905 279913 282915 286915
      292914 298911 304906 310898 320882 336846 339837 341833
      344830 351825 357820 360815 364806 366796 371775 374754
 0.50 514262 501225 497217 494214 490213 481211 476211 473213
      466213 458215 443217 436218 429220 427223 428225 431233
      438239 441241 446243 463243 470243 478246 484250 488255
      490259 499274 501277 505275 504268 501264 496255 493248
      489241 484240 481238 480235 478231 472230 467231 466227
      468222 476216 485220 490225 494234 496238 500242 504248
      507255 510262 514262
 0.50 453163 454159 454155 453151 450149 447149 444148 442146
      440145 439144 438145 436146 435148 434152 435156 435157
      436160 437163 440165 443167 446169 448169 450167 452166
      453163
 0.50 455110 456105 455103 455101 453098 450097 447098 444098
      441098 438099 436100 435102 434104 433108 435111 438112
      441113 443115 446116 449115 452113 455110 455110
 0.50 419241 418236 414231 413227 415220 413216 411215 408216
      405214 403211 398207 396207 392210 395214 398218 404224
      402228 397230 394233 395238 400242 403244 412244 416244
      419241
 0.50 363752 360749 355750 351752 347755 342762 337770 330783
      323798 320806 315811 311811 308815 305823 302830 300837
      300845 297855 293870 289885 287893 286896 288900 299899
      305894 308888 314874 317866 319859 326843 332830 340815
      351785 355776 357769 360761 363752
 1.00 462220 460219 457218 454218 451219 448219 445219 444220
      442221 439222 438222 439223 442225 444226 447225 448225
      451224 454223 454222 457221 460223 462220
 1.00 445158 444155 443153 441152 438152 438153 438154 439157
      441159 443160 445158
 1.00 413239 410237 407236 406237 407238 410238 413239

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 525256 517241 515233 511224 503212 499206 495203 491199
      486198 480200 474202 468205 458203 455203 454198 458192
      464188 471186 479188 485192 491196 499199 506200 511203
      524215 531219 535218 537212 538206 538200 535191 529179
      528174 525169 521162 517157 511152 492134 486130 482127
      477125 473124 470126 468129 466131 464130 460128 456129
      451134 452137 450142 435145 432151 432159 435165 439170
      442173 443176 440181 438185 437189 437193 438198 441204
      446209 448212 445213 437212 434212 432213 428219 426227
      423232 421233 416236 413240 414246 417251 422256 429259
      435258 449256 463256 467257 475260 484268 490278 496286
      511296
 0.01 471717 469712 467709 464710 460713 450723 445729 442734
      436745 430759 426772 419795 416803 415811 414817 414825
      414829 415833 414840 411851 408866 406880 406888 407892
      410893 414889 417884 423871 425865 427862 428860 431862
      434866 437867 441866 444865 447865 445870 441876 439882
      442885 446886 451892 452902 456909 460912 462920 464944
      467950 471951 475949 478945 483939 486934 488926 489917
      489908 489897 488886 487880 485874 480870 479860 479855
      477849 473838 470833 466828 460808 458804 453797 450791
      452783 457769 465744 470728 471717
 0.01 465106 465102 462098 461090 458073 457063 457053 460039
      460033 458027 458015 458994 459985 460977 460963 458953
      455945 451941 447934 446928 445923 443919 439916 433919
      430924 428932 426947 424953 421959 419966 418971 420978
      424984 432995 439004 440016 438027 435035 434040 435049
      436056 434062 433067 434072 436076 441081 443084 439085
      434088 428089 425092 427096 427100 423103 420111 417118
      419127 419133 416140 415146 414155 416161 420162 423164
      425169 428172 427175 431175 434172 434169 426161 422158
      420154 423147 425139 431125 434122 438120 443121 446124
      449124 455121 460115 464110 465106
 0.01 412223 414219 413216 410218 408222 406225 409227 410226
      412223 412223
 0.01 370760 364752 357749 351752 347757 344765 344773 345785
      345795 346803 348805 352806 354804 358800 363793 367785
      370775 371770 371763 370760
 0.01 405217 405213 403209 402208 400204 398204 395203 392204
      389204 388205 388206 390209 391210 393212 396214 396215
      399216 401217 404217 405217
 0.01 323816 322811 319807 307808 295802 292798 284795 274792
      264791 258792 252794 246797 244800 241806 240811 239815
      241822 244822 247820 251818 254818 258819 264822 268825
      277830 292838 299849 306852 309849 314838 319828 322820
      323816
 0.25 516277 517272 518267 517258 514247 510235 506225 499215
      497212 491208 485206 479206 471209 467211 461211 455215
      445217 441219 438222 438228 437234 435238 436242 442247
      448248 456248 468249 474251 480254 484259 489266 496277
      499281 504285 509284 512281 516277
 0.25 501173 499168 496163 493161 488157 485156 481155 476156
      471158 471163 472165 475168 481172 483175 489178 495178
      499177 501173
 0.25 450105 451101 450100 447101 444104 443105 441108 441109
      444109 445109 447107 450105 450105
 0.50 513271 515265 514261 512254 508241 504229 501224 497218
      492214 486212 479212 476213 473214 472217 474218 478219
      484222 486224 489228 489231 488234 486233 482233 480230
      477227 472228 470227 469223 471220 470216 464214 444220
      443224 446228 446231 444233 440239 442242 445244 452244
      456244 462244 468245 476248 482251 486255 489261 496273
      499276 504281 508278 510274 513271
 1.00 502271 501267 500265 499262 497260 496257 495254 494252
      492248 489244 487242 485246 486248 487251 488253 490256
      490258 493262 495266 497269 500272 502271
 1.00 480239 479237 477234 476233 475233 473235 472237 472238
      475241 478242 480239
 1.00 461220 460220 457219 460221 461220

$$