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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160737
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE BACK OVER TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL END UP WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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GENERAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AT ANY GIVEN TIME AND THEREFORE CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IS SLIM. MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST. COOLER ALONG THE LAKE TODAY...BUT HAVE
TAKEN TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...NOT AS WARM AS
THE MET IS PUTTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER. GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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BY EVENING RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA AND THE
THREAT FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER AND THERE WILL BE A CLEARING
TREND TO THE SKY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAVE ALLOWED FOR
SOME BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOUTHERLY FLOW SEEMS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. THEREFORE WENT UNDER THE
WARMER MET GUID OUT EAST THAT HAD AROUND 40 FOR A LOW FOR NW PA
AND INSTEAD TOOK THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS IN OUR AREA TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.  ALL OTHERS IN THE MID 30S.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF SUN
BEFORE THICKER HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
MID WEEK FRONT. GOOD H8 WARMING AND A STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT TO
ALLOW THE LAKESHORE IN ON THE WARMER TEMPS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 60S MOST EVERYWHERE. WARMED LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT.

BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING IT SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LESS OF A WAVE ON THE FRONT. DEBATED WHETHER
TO PUT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER...A FEW HUNDRED JULES OF MUCAPE
SHOWING UP.

COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DROP OF
H8 TEMPS TO BELOW ZERO C. WILL END PRECIP AS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW AND HAVE LOWS AROUND 30. WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH HANGING AROUND AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FOR FRIDAY THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TRYING TO BACK THEIR WAY INTO NW PA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE COLDEST AIR CAN
MAKE IT FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AT THIS POINT AS THE FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THE
CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY LOWER TO 3500-5000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES BUT THAT IS STILL IN THE VFR CATEGORY. AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING.

DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE WILL LIMITED ANY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS. FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT
THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES AT TIMES. OTHERWISE SOME LIGHT FOG OR
HAZE MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. VFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE WED
WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE WED NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT. MVFR TO LINGER
INTO THURSDAY. VFR AND HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN OHIO TODAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL ACROSS ONTARIO. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT WAVES TO BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH INTO TUESDAY.

EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS...MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM...ALONG THE FRONT. WAVES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.

A NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN