000
FXUS04 KWBC 160617
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 16/1200 UTC THRU MAR 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NWRN U.S...

SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN FAST CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FIRE PCPN ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND THAT HAS PRESSED SEWD ACROSS
THE NWRN U.S. AS WELL SUPPORT CONTG POST FRONTAL SHWRS ALONG THE
PAC NW COAST WHERE A FVBL LLVL ONSHORE MSTR FETCH WILL PERSIST.
THE 15/1200 UTC ECMWF WAS SUPPORTIVE OF TNGTS GFS QPF PLACEMENT
WHICH ALSO HAD SUPPORT FM THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL.  SEE LITTLE
REASON AT THE CURRENT TIME TO DISAGREE WITH THOSE MODELS AND
BASICALLY BLENDED ANY MINOR DIFFERENCES THAT WERE NOTED.

...SERN U.S...

WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARDS A ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WITH THE NCEP MODELS AGAIN SEEMING TO UNDERPLAY THE SITUATION
THERE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING
ACROSS THE REGION AS SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT
OVRRUNS THE FEATURE.  MSTR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A
SWATH OF MDT TO HVY PCPN TOTALS GIVEN THAT INITIALLY FVBL JET
DYNAMICS WILL AID THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.  MAIN PROBLEM RECENTLY
HAS BEEN THAT THE NCEP MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO TURN THE LLVL WINDS
TOO WLY WITH PASSAGE OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS INSTEAD OF HAVING THEM
BACK IN RESPONSE TO ADNL SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG ACROSS THE REGION.
LIKE YDA...WILL BE SLOWER TO END THE PCPN FM WEST TO EAST OVR THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
EXTENT OF SGFNT PCPN TOTALS.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 537211 536203 534195 529180 528173 525167 518158 502143
      496139 492134 481126 476124 472119 473113 475109 474104
      473100 473091 473081 475077 478071 479064 481055 482047
      482040 484030 487015 490006 492000 493990 491982 487979
      487975 492961 493946 493936 489934 485937 483943 479955
      475973 472985 471992 469998 465008 461023 459039 456055
      450065 444068 442069 440073 442080 446084 443086 438088
      428092 427100 423103 421107 420111 417112 410111 404113
      404117 405121 407123 411122 416122 420126 418137 429153
      430160 428161 426161 424159 418150 416151 414156 416162
      417165 416168 414174 414185 413189 412192 408197 407202
      398199 391198 385197 381201 383207 386212 391217 393219
      389221 385220 382221 377217 373216 369221 371226 374231
      372245 372252 375254 381253 385251 390249 396252 409257
      416259 424259 435260 445259 453260 466265 472268 476271
      481276 486281 496291 501294 505295 509292 513287 516278
      518271 520259 520248 517240 514233 511228 505216 503210
      501206 502201 505198 508200 511205 515209 518212 524214
      530216 537211
 0.01 478190 477182 474177 468177 465183 461186 458190 456193
      453197 451202 449208 453210 456207 459204 465205 469205
      472199 475194 478190
 0.01 406718 404715 400711 394712 380716 371720 363725 357727
      352730 349729 341726 338727 334729 330736 329741 328748
      325755 320762 315769 308783 304794 296807 287818 284826
      283832 279845 278853 278859 279862 283863 286864 286867
      282883 277894 276901 274909 274916 276923 281929 288930
      300926 311916 317913 327910 341900 346896 350891 354885
      358878 364874 371868 373864 375866 378877 380884 384892
      386894 389897 395900 400900 403896 404886 403875 404866
      406850 406844 403841 396840 393834 392823 393814 396806
      405795 411788 415781 417773 417761 417756 414748 409740
      406732 407727 406718
 0.25 529199 526192 521183 515177 510173 506172 502168 496165
      492164 487165 487171 491174 495174 499175 504175 507178
      509183 514188 520195 525201 529199
 0.25 509274 512266 513258 511247 508236 504228 500216 499213
      495208 485205 476207 470210 460210 453214 444214 438214
      434213 431209 429206 424203 421202 420205 421209 423213
      424217 421221 420226 419229 417229 416224 417216 415213
      408214 394206 393206 393210 395213 401218 403221 404225
      403228 397229 394230 391232 392235 397241 403246 408247
      412246 422247 429247 447248 455248 464249 469251 474254
      481260 487268 492275 499283 504283 508278 509274
 0.25 484232 485227 483227 480226 479230 480230 482232 484232
 0.25 472154 470147 465141 464134 461131 460128 455131 451134
      451139 448143 441142 438144 436147 435154 437161 443170
      446176 447179 445180 443182 440187 441190 446186 452184
      455179 457168 459163 464159 469157 472154
 0.25 464119 464113 466108 465102 461097 456098 450096 444097
      440097 436100 433108 435112 438113 443119 447121 452121
      458123 460125 462125 462122 461119 463119 464119
 0.25 382741 381737 379737 374738 368740 363741 353739 349738
      344739 340743 338748 335758 328781 321799 307817 302827
      300836 294857 291868 290879 288890 286902 285907 286914
      288917 294916 302911 308902 314891 320885 330883 337875
      344867 349858 356848 360838 366834 370829 373819 375814
      377810 383806 384802 381800 378800 372804 370802 369798
      369794 371782 373767 375760 378753 381745 382741
 0.50 501271 500268 498265 497264 495263 495264 496268 497271
      499274 501271
 0.50 505244 496218 493214 487211 480209 473211 466215 455215
      434219 430219 429221 429224 430226 434230 437233 440233
      441240 446242 457243 467243 472246 477249 483252 488253
      489247 484242 478232 471229 470227 470223 479221 486223
      491225 497236 501242 504245 505244
 0.50 463148 459145 456145 454147 450148 444148 442147 439149
      437153 438157 442161 445166 448170 453167 455164 458156
      461152 463148
 0.50 447233 447232 444231 443232 443233 446233 447233
 0.50 447113 448109 447105 444102 441102 440104 439108 441110
      444112 445113 446113 447113
 0.50 420241 419236 414232 413231 413227 415219 413216 410216
      405216 404218 406224 408229 410230 408233 405234 400235
      404239 409241 415242 420241
 0.50 367754 366750 363748 359747 354745 349744 346745 341753
      336769 331787 329795 326803 316818 313825 309832 301847
      298855 296862 294871 293880 291898 294903 298904 305899
      309892 313884 317877 322871 327868 332866 337860 341854
      344850 345846 348836 351828 354820 355809 355798 357791
      360783 362773 367754
 1.00 478239 476237 474237 475239 478239 478239
 1.00 355760 354757 353756 352754 349754 347756 346757 345759
      344762 344763 342767 342768 342771 343774 345777 349778
      351776 353773 354772 354768 355764 355761 355760
 1.00 342814 340808 338806 336807 332811 328817 324826 320834
      314842 308848 303855 300863 298868 298872 296882 296886
      298889 300890 303890 307886 311878 312869 315865 318863
      331850 336842 339834 341823 342814
 1.50 334825 334822 332822 330825 329827 328829 328831 327834
      327835 326839 325840 324843 324844 322847 325848 327846
      327845 329843 330841 331839 332837 333834 333833 334829
      334828 334825

$$