000
FXUS04 KWBC 120642
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
242 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 12/1200 UTC THRU MAR 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SWRN U.S...

UPPER TROF NOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL FIRE SHWRS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT IS ADVANCES EWD AND WEAKENS WITH TIME.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FROM PACIFIC MSTR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PCPN TOTALS.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES WITH KEEPING BEST SHWR ACTVTY
CONFINED TO NRN AZ/NRN NM/SWRN CO WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SET UP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID/UPPER LVL LO TRACK.

...TX TO THE SRN MID ATLC REGION...

OVRRNG PCPN EVENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY AND
TNGT AS SHRTWV ENERGY IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIFTS MSTR BEHIND A SFC
FRONT WORKING TO THE GULF COAST.  UNFORTUNATELY..QPF SPECIFICS ARE
IN SHORT SUPPLY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
AS WELL AS AGREEMENT BTWN ONE ANOTHER WITH THE DEFINING/TIMING OF
PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT PROBABLY BEING
THE PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR THE DIFFERENCES.  IN ADDITION...APPARENT
FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE GFS COULD BE HURTING ITS QPF FORECAST.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE..OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE GEM REGIONAL
MODEL FOR THE MOMENT AS ITS QPF SEEMS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BTWN
THE DIFFERENCES SHOWN BY OTHER GUIDANCE.  FORECAST REFLECTS THE
SCENARIO OF ONE AREA OF PCPN SPREADING NEWD FM THE LWR MS VLY THRU
THE DAY TODAY WHILE A SECOND AREA REDVLPS INVOF ERN TX/WRN LA TNGT
AS ANOTHER IMPULSE WORKS ITS WAY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION UNDER FVBL
DIV FLOW ALOFT.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD ACCORD CONCERNING THIS
SCENARIO.

...SOUTHEAST ATLC COAST...

MODELS DLVP SHWRS ALONG  THE SE ATLC COAST AS A COASTAL FRONT AIDS
LVL MSTR CNVGNC AS LLVL ELYS INCREASE THE ATLC MSTR SUPPLY.  KEPT
AMTS VERY LGT HERE AS MOST ACTVTY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 438753 436751 435750 433749 430750 428755 428759 428763
      430767 433769 435767 438764 438762 438757 438753
 0.01 380742 378732 375724 373721 370721 365727 363738 361751
      360763 360776 360784 357791 355797 351804 346817 344821
      343828 341838 339851 334863 328875 322885 320890 316893
      312892 307889 302888 298892 296896 290907 287916 286923
      285932 284938 279944 271951 264958 257967 255970 253975
      252986 252999 254005 256011 259016 264020 268023 274025
      281025 287026 292028 299029 305030 309031 317039 320043
      320051 322055 326059 335068 328076 325081 323082 319082
      315084 313087 311092 312098 315103 318105 322102 326100
      330104 332110 336115 341119 344123 347129 357130 363128
      366126 367122 366117 368112 372110 380102 383097 386097
      389094 395087 398071 403065 406057 403051 402042 400034
      396027 380012 376011 372012 368015 363020 361025 358032
      356035 352034 350027 349017 349009 353006 358002 361998
      365991 366986 369973 369965 368957 367947 367941 367932
      366924 367907 368900 370893 376879 380868 383857 385852
      386845 388831 390815 391807 391799 390791 389782 387772
      386767 380742
 0.01 347745 346739 345736 343734 338732 335733 329740 325747
      323757 320766 317773 311782 306788 301797 298804 297813
      298819 300822 307827 312826 316822 321816 331799 333796
      337792 343785 346776 348767 348757 347745
 0.01 344175 344173 344171 343168 342166 339166 338167 339168
      340171 341172 343175 344175 344175
 0.25 380794 378785 376783 373784 369794 365805 359818 355827
      351838 350853 348866 346877 342888 339893 338895 334895
      331896 325901 320909 313916 304923 298926 296931 289953
      289960 289963 289968 283976 279986 279991 281995 287005
      292008 296008 300006 307999 312990 317980 320975 324969
      337954 341948 344943 348933 353922 356911 359898 362883
      368862 372849 375837 378825 379817 380809 379804 380794
 0.25 336767 334764 334763 334764 332766 331769 331770 329773
      328774 328778 331780 333777 334775 335773 336770 336768
      336767
 0.25 381079 381075 379072 378069 377068 376065 375064 372063
      370065 369067 368068 369072 369073 370075 371079 372080
      374083 375083 378084 379083 381080 381079
 0.25 362093 363089 362086 361084 359082 358080 355079 352079
      350082 349082 349086 349089 349091 350092 352094 355095
      358096 361096 362093
 0.50 369833 368829 365831 362835 360844 358851 356856 354864
      353872 355875 359868 360862 362854 365846 367841 369833
 0.50 355889 354885 352885 349890 343902 339906 332907 326911
      322916 315926 309937 301945 297951 295957 298962 298967
      296973 293980 291985 290990 290993 293996 299996 305988
      311977 318966 325957 333948 338936 344925 348919 350912
      353900 355889
 1.00 331927 329923 325925 322929 321932 320937 318941 315945
      313948 312954 314957 317955 319952 322949 325945 326941
      328936 330931 331927

$$