AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 227 PM MST TUE MAR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) CURRENTLY: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE S CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO NM AND CO...AND LTG DEVELOPING ACROSS S AZ. ACROSS THE CWA...LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...HAS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS CONSIDERABLY. TEMPS ARE FINALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTN ACROSS THE E PLAINS...WHILE KCOS IS STRUGGLING TO WARM TO THE FREEZING MARK. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: BOTH ETA AND AVN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CONTINUE THE TREND OF DROPPING THE WINTER SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF AZ TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE UP INTO THE STATE. WHILE THE WINDS ARE MORE SW THIS TONIGHT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CAME UP WITH 8-10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE FAVORED AREAS THERE...SO ONGOING SNOW ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAINTAIN. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW THE MOISTURE UP WHILE THE TAIL OF A 150 KT JET ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMICS. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT IN CERTAIN AREAS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT. STILL...SCATTERED POPS LOOK GOOD. TOMORROW THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT E... AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN NM...SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. HAD TO COOL MIN AND MAX T GRIDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO BETTER CORRESPOND WITH WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. OVERALL...GENERAL TRENDS OF ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. \\MOORE// .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MAIN FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW BOTTOMS OUT OVER NRN MEXICO AND HEADS EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH BEST QG FORCING WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY SNOW AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...OVERALL THINGS LOOK FINE. THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ETA LIFT THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASING QG ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMBINING TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER AND THEN TAPER THEM OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. SUSPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTER TO CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SNOW LEVELS CLIMBING OVER THE MTNS AS WELL. COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY HIGH QPF TOTALS OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE AND 700MB LOW WRAP UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...WHICH WAS HINTED AT BY THE 06Z MODELS. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DRIER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO END PRECIP A LITTLE SOONER....KEEPING JUST SOME LOW POPS OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED -SHSN. INCOMING AIR MASS NOT LOOKING VERY COLD...SO WILL NUDGE UP MAX TEMP GRIDS JUST SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST GFS AND VARIOUS OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD A CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A NICE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA... WITH ANY PRECIP LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE CONT DVD AS A FEW WEAK S/W TROUGHS MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS. CURRENT GRIDS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO WELL WITH FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE. --PETERSEN && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET(ZONE 68). && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1245 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .AVIATION... SAT PIX AND OBS SHOW BREAKS IN STRATUS ACROSS REGION WITH MVFR CIGS IN AND OUT AT KSBN AND STILL HOLDING AT KFWA. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING HELPING CREATE BREAKS AS LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO BACK TO MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS REMAIN WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST VFR CIGS ACROSS REGION. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR EAST AND NORTH TIL 11Z FOR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WHERE SOME WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ISSUANCE TIME. LARGE AREA OF PRIMARILY MVFR SC OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT DID OFFER SOME RESOLUTION/COLLABORATION IN SKY GRIDS WITH NORTH PRIMARILY OVERCAST AND FAR SOUTH MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND FRONT AND PER MESOETA/RUC ANTICIPATE MINIMUMS PROBABLY AROUND 14Z THEN TRACK BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE/FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND SYSTEM AND DESPITE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE BY 21Z TO NEAR GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS THAT WERE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES BUT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. && .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY AND PLEASANT. INITIAL CONCERNS COME IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GFS FAVORING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THIS AREA. SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ETA TAKES THE FRONT SINCE THERE IS NO SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT. WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH CHC POPS LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS FOR NOW...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING SITES. EVEN TOUGHER CHALLENGE COMES WITH PRECIP CHCS MAINLY THURS NGT INTO FRI AND TEMPS THUR-FRI. ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING THE SFC LOW WEST OF THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP LATE THURS NGT(MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON 60-70 KT 850 MB JET). THIS STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPR LEVEL JET STREAK ALL POINT TOWARDS TOWARDS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY BEING ON THE HEAVY SIDE. ETA MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREAS LATE THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRI AND THINK THIS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURS NGT INTO FRI AM. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH ETA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S BY FRI AM. WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS THURS NGT...WITH CAT POPS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET IN LATER FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER MENTION UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON MSTR/INSTABILITY IS HOPEFULLY ACHIEVED. HAVE ALSO BUMPED BACK MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW TO LATE FRIDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES ON MODELS POINT TOWARDS MOST IF NOT ALL OF FRI BEING ALL LIQUID. POPS FRI TRICKY AS WELL AS COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH PRECIP EARLY THEN DRY SLOT WORKING IN AND LINE OF PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL LEAVE AS CHC FOR NOW. WITH ABOVE NOTED ITEMS...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE ON THURS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY IF SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TREND CONTINUES. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY SHOWING TIMING/TRACK CONCERNS. TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 625 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .AVIATION... LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TERMINAL FORECASTS NEEDED. PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT. EXCEPT AT KFWA BEING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN EDGE OF MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED THEM TO MIX OUT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS CONCERN FOR WDLY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THIS EVENING AT KSBN HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR EAST AND NORTH TIL 11Z FOR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WHERE SOME WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ISSUANCE TIME. LARGE AREA OF PRIMARILY MVFR SC OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT DID OFFER SOME RESOLUTION/COLLABORATION IN SKY GRIDS WITH NORTH PRIMARILY OVERCAST AND FAR SOUTH MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND FRONT AND PER MESOETA/RUC ANTICIPATE MINIMUMS PROBABLY AROUND 14Z THEN TRACK BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE/FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND SYSTEM AND DESPITE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE BY 21Z TO NEAR GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS THAT WERE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES BUT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE. && .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY AND PLEASANT. INITIAL CONCERNS COME IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GFS FAVORING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THIS AREA. SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ETA TAKES THE FRONT SINCE THERE IS NO SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT. WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH CHC POPS LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS FOR NOW...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING SITES. EVEN TOUGHER CHALLENGE COMES WITH PRECIP CHCS MAINLY THURS NGT INTO FRI AND TEMPS THUR-FRI. ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING THE SFC LOW WEST OF THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP LATE THURS NGT(MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING ON 60-70 KT 850 MB JET). THIS STRONG FLOW COMBINED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPR LEVEL JET STREAK ALL POINT TOWARDS TOWARDS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY BEING ON THE HEAVY SIDE. ETA MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREAS LATE THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRI AND THINK THIS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH WOULD SPELL OUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURS NGT INTO FRI AM. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH ETA PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S BY FRI AM. WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS THURS NGT...WITH CAT POPS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET IN LATER FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...WILL HOLD OFF ON THUNDER MENTION UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON MSTR/INSTABILITY IS HOPEFULLY ACHIEVED. HAVE ALSO BUMPED BACK MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW TO LATE FRIDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES ON MODELS POINT TOWARDS MOST IF NOT ALL OF FRI BEING ALL LIQUID. POPS FRI TRICKY AS WELL AS COULD SEE A SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH PRECIP EARLY THEN DRY SLOT WORKING IN AND LINE OF PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL LEAVE AS CHC FOR NOW. WITH ABOVE NOTED ITEMS...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE ON THURS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY IF SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TREND CONTINUES. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY SHOWING TIMING/TRACK CONCERNS. TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UDPATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 718 PM MST TUE MAR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION...IN THE PROCESS OF FINISHING UP A MAJOR UPDATE. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS FROM JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST OF SNOW. RUC SEEMS TO BE CATCHING THIS BUT IS A LITTLE SLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING BANDED STRUCTURE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 500 MB TO 250 MB JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE HAVE CAUSED THIS PRECIPITATION. AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS IS IN PLACE AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED EVERYBODY TO LIKELY RAIN OR SNOW WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH NO TIME REFERENCE. HAVE MENTION OF ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN SECTIONS. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A LITTLE IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS A LITTLE CONSIDERING THAT TEMPERATURES ARE TAKING A DIVE ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. RUC IS HANDLING DEWPOINTS AND WINDS BEST HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE ZONES WITH IT. HAVE ALSO MADE SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AS WELL. MAY BE THE FIRST OF A FEW UPDATES TONIGHT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 205 PM MST TUE MAR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER NEBRASKA WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD COULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAWN AS SURFACE TO CLOUD LAYER HOVERS AROUND 32F. WIND DIRECTION AT THAT TIME WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING COULD BE ENOUGH TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. TOO CLOSE TO CALL...AND ADDED FREEZING RAIN WORDING FROM TRIBUNE TO MCCOOK. AREAS OF FOG CARRIED AS WELL WITH RUC II FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY PER ETA QPF FIELDS. CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN 500 MB SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE AFTER MIDNIGHT VERY CHALLENGING. ETABFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW A POSSIBILITY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE TO MCCOOK. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN YUMA COUNTY. WILL COVER ALL OF THESE BASES IN THE ZONES...AND LEAVE TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THURSDAY...ETA AND GFS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS COLDER AND WETTER WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. FEEL THE GFS OVERDONE AS IT HAS BEEN MOST WINTER AND THE ETA WILL VERIFY BETTER. WILL MAKE SOME CONCESSIONS HOWEVER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BY DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING POPS IN EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION PHASE CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC AND WILL JUST BROADBRUSH WITH RAIN/SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE ALL LIQUID SEEMS LIKELY. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FRIDAY...ETA 850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10C WARMER THAN THE GFS. COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW COVER IN THE EAST AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WEST. DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL QUICKLY ACT TO MELT THE SNOW HOWEVER. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO BACKDOOR COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...MUCH COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. THUS PREFER HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OPERATIONAL GFS 850 TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TEENS. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S FOR ALL LOCATIONS...AND THINK DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL ADD AT LEAST A FEW MORE DEGREES. UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CLUSTERING AROUND THE 850 MB 5C ISOTHERM OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND WILL USE THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE OF LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 718 AM CST TUE MAR 2 2004 .UPDATED... WE HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE RISING THETA SURFACES STILL BATTLING THE DOWNGLIDE ON THE 280K THETA SURFACE. THE SUN SHOULD HELP ERODE THINGS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM. COX --------------------------------------------------------------------- MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WL REVOLVE AROUND THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION TUE NGT THROUGH THU NGT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT QPF AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING POTENTIAL TDAY-TNGT: TDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY FOR A FEW DAYS AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGS OVER BAJA. CIRRUS WL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL. THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TNGT AS MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT WL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TNGT WITH THE BEST UPGLIDE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. AS 850MB JET STRENGTHENS LOOK FOR THE CONVERGENT AREA OF THIS JET TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE NGT. BECAUSE THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STAY JUST SOUTH OF CWA, CHOSE NO TO GO 100 POPS. BUT DID UP POPS TO AT LEAST LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THUNDER WL BE AN OPTION TNGT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. WED-THU: THE UPPER SYSTEM WL REALLY TAKE ITS TIME WORKING EAST WED WHICH WL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO REGION. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WL BE CONTINUES WED BUT SHOULD SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPGLIDE IN THE 295-300K LAYER CONTINUES WED AND WED NGT. FEEL THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER SE KS WL COME LATER WED NGT INTO THU. THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFT OUT. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A WARM FRONT LAYING GENERALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. SO WENT 100 POPS FOR THU AS ALL OF CWA SHOULD GET WET. WITH THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE PRECIP (TUE NGT-THU) MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. 850MB DPS WL APPROACH THE 10 C MARK WHICH IS VERY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT MAY ALSO HELP FOCUS SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE SE PORTION OF CWA. SO ATTM WL GO AHEAD AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO. PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THU NGT AS CENTRAL KS IS PLACED IN THE WRAP AROUND AREA OF THIS SYSTEM. SO DID BUMP POPS A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD. DID KEEP -RASN FOR A FEW COUNTIES OVER CENTRAL KS, BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO GET WORKED UP ABOUT. FRI-MON: FOUND IT HARD TO IMPROVE ON WHAT PREV FCST HAD GOING, SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. BY FRI 12Z ALL MED RANGE MODELS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST GFS IS SPREADING SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER CWA FRI. WL GO WITH THE THINKING THAT THIS IS ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP OVER TOO MUCH AREA. WITH THIS WL KEEP DRY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. SUN AND MON SHOULD BE THE BETTER OF THE EXTENDED DAYS AS SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO NO MAJOR SWINGS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. SO WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT-MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA 50 40 49 43 / 0 60 60 60 HUTCHINSON 49 39 47 41 / 0 50 60 50 NEWTON 49 39 48 42 / 0 50 60 50 ELDORADO 50 40 49 43 / 0 60 60 60 STROTHER FIELD 51 41 50 44 / 0 70 70 70 RUSSELL 46 36 44 34 / 0 50 50 40 GREAT BEND 47 37 45 38 / 0 50 50 40 SALINA 48 37 47 39 / 0 50 50 40 MCPHERSON 48 38 47 40 / 0 50 50 50 COFFEYVILLE 54 41 51 47 / 0 80 80 80 CHANUTE 51 40 50 44 / 0 70 80 70 IOLA 51 39 50 44 / 0 70 80 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 7/LAWSON ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 915 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POLAR BRANCH ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN ARCTIC VORTEX OVER CNTRL CAN AND ENERGETIC SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE SRN CONUS. SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW NOTED OVER NE MN THIS EVNG...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME LGT -SN/FLURRIES (SPRINKLES MIXED IN ACRS THE SRN TIER WHERE SFC WBLB AOA 32) THIS EVNG IN THE DEEPER COMMA TAIL MSTR PASSING ACRS THE FA AS EVIDENCED BY COLDER CLD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. LEADING EDGE OF THIS PCPN...WHICH IS TENDING TO PASS NW OF THE SE COUNTIES...HAS PUSHED NR ERY. BACK EDGE OF THIS PCPN HAS REACHED BARAGA/IRON COUNTIES AT 02Z. PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF SN FELL AT WATTON IN BARAGA COUNTY. ALTHOUGH SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED PARTIAL CLRG OVER THE WRN ZNS...VISFOG IMAGERY INDICATES WDSPRD SC EXTENDS BACK INTO MN. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS HI RH WITHIN MIXED LYR UP TO INVRN NR H8. BUT NMRS BRKS IN THE CLDS NOTED ACRS WRN MN IN THE DNVA/SUBSIDENCE/SFC RDG AXIS BEHIND THE SHRTWV. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE PCPN TRENDS...THEN CLD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS/FOG. 00Z RUC/18Z ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV NR INL SPEEDING E OF ANJ BY 09Z IN ZONAL FLOW...WITH SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA/MORE ACYC FLOW/LGT W FLOW W-E LATER TNGT. XPCT BACK EDGE OF PCPN TO PUSH THRU ERY BY THE EARLY MRNG HRS. ETA/RUC SHOW CONSIDERABLE DVM DVLPG OVERNGT...WITH FCST RH/TIME SECTIONS INDICATING DCRSG RH ABV SHALLOW LYR NR THE SFC. CONSIDERING THE BRKS IN THE CLDS ALREADY REPORTED OVER THE WRN CWA AND ACRS WRN MN...THINK SOME HOLES WL PUNCH THRU SC DECK. SINCE LLVL MSTR RATHER HI AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z INL SDNG UNDER THE MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...CLRG AND LGT WNDS WITH LLVL ACYC FLOW/MSTR MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG. EXPECT LOWEST MINS ACRS THE INTERIOR W WITH SOME PARTIAL CLRG ALLOWING TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT ARND 20 (WHICH IS WHAT DWPT HAS APRCHD IN CLRG AREA IN WRN MN). .LONG TERM... ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE BACK TOMORROW AS NOTED ON ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN FALLING LATE WED AFTERNOON AS AREA OF 850MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE SETS UP ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE TROUGH. MOST OF SNOW...1 TO 2 INCHES...WILL FALL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WEAK 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER SNOWBELTS FAVORED BY A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -15C OVER THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS THU NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TIMING THE START OF THE SNOW ON FRI IS LOOKING A BIT TRICKY AS ACCUMULATIONS AT THE ONSET MAY BE MINIMAL DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. PUSHED BACK START OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFTER MIDNIGHT AT WHICH TIME LOWER LEVELS SHOULD MOISTEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS TOWARD NORTHERN IL. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM NORTHERN IL ON FRI MORNING...ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON BY FRI EVENING. ETA AND GFS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH WITH SURFACE LOW...AROUND 993MB...BUT ETA IS SLOWER IN SPEED AND DEEPENS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF CWA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE AS HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWS FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER MOST OF THE MOISTURE...SPEC HUMIDITY OF 8 G/KG OR MORE...WILL REMAIN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWARD. ETA AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 1305M 1000-850MB THICKNESS LINE REACHING NORTHERN LAKE MI...BUT STAYING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA. WITH ETA QPF AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH...AND GFS AMOUNTS AROUND 0.6 INCHES...EXPECTING A 5 TO 8 INCH 12-HOUR SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MI USING A VERY WET AND HEAVY 8:1 SNOWFALL TO PRECIP RATIO. SHOULD THE TRACK CHANGE TO A MORE WESTERLY APPROACH...CWA WILL EXPERIENCE A RAIN TO RAIN-SNOW MIX EVENT AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. ETA AND GFS DEPICT HIGHEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THIS AREA. DUE TO THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTING A BRIEF BUT INTENSE ROUND OF SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL UP POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A SNOW EVENT...BUT AS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON ANY MIXED PRECIP. AS SFC LOW KICKS OFF INTO QUEBEC...A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT MORNING. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...BUT THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS SYSTEM DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HOWEVER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS LOWER MI SUN MORNING. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS OF -10C...THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW EXISTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MODELS INDICATE THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING SIMILAR TRACK MON AND TUE. SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW AT THIS TIME. GFS DEPICTING A LOW STAYING TO THE NORTH OF CWA...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS IT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. EITHER TRACK WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW DURING THESE PERIODS AS ENSEMBLE RUNS ALSO DEPICT SOME TYPE OF TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BLOCKS MOISTURE FROM RETURNING. LAROSA && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 345 PM CST TUE MAR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF WAVES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOMORROW. DESPITE IT BEING SO FAR AWAY WE'LL SOON BEGIN TO FEEL ITS EFFECTS LATER TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER REGION TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. STRONG UPGLIDE PER 290K/295K SURFACES WILL PROVIDE BASIS FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MO RIVER BY DAYBREAK. SHEAR LOBE MOVING THROUGH OK LATE TONIGHT WILL HELP SUPPORT RAIN BAND. RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD THROUGH WESTERN OK AND IS SPREADING NORTHEAST. 12Z ETA/AVN/CANADIAN MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THIS FIRST WAVE. 18Z META QPF LOOKS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOIST LAYER. DON'T EXPECT TO SEE IT RAIN ALL DAY TOMORROW BUT MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS. WILL BACK OFF POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE PROGGED BY THE ETA MODEL SHUTS THE DOOR ON MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE TOKEN LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SPRINKLES COULD FALL JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AND HAVE BLENDED IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC GIVEN CLOUDS/RAIN/EAST WINDS BUT ALREADY WENT UNDER GUIDANCE. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ETA AND AVN ON EJECTING CLOSED LOW OUT OF OLD MEXICO. AVN DEEPER/STRONGER BUT FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. PREFER SLOWER AND MORE WESTERN ETA. HOWEVER...MAIN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS MINIMAL AS BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRESENCE OVER CWA. GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE WIDE OPEN AND WILL POUR MOISTURE NORTHWARD. EXPECT TO SEE VERY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL STORM EJECTING NORTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH TRAINING OF STORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MACON LINE...BUT CERTAINTY A BIT IN QUESTION AS ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH COULD ROB THE INFLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDER SHOULD SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL HOLD ONTO RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE POPS. MJ THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE THE END OF THE EVENT. THE GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION...WITH SUB-ZERO 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY (IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE). THE ETA IS WARMER...AND HAS THE 850 MB ZERO DEGREE TEMP CONTOUR STRADDLING THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE MIXED PRECIP AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 136...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR A MIXED BOUT OF PRECIP AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL MOVES OVER ON FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. LS && .PREV DISCUSSION 255 AM... MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND THE THREAT OF A MAJOR PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THURSDAY. LATEST MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SIMILAR IN DROPPING THE SYSTEM INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PREFER SLIGHTLY FASTER AVN WITH THE INITIATION OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERALLY FOUND ON THE 290-295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THESE SURFACES CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG. AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY CONCENTRATE ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. PREFER ETA WITH THIS SCENARIO AS BELIEVE AVN A LITTLE TOO BULLISH WITH DEPICTION OF STRONG QPF IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY ETA...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN IS THURSDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LITTLE TOO SOON ON PARTICULARS ON EXACT TRACK...BUT BOTH ETA/GFS TRACK STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH COPIOUS H8 MOISTURE. BASED ON TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL LOW...PREFER SURFACE LOW TRACK OF GFS WITH THE SURFACE LOW FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG QG FORCING...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES MAY LEAD TO A POTENTIAL HYDRO PROBLEM. AT THIS TIME...FEEL BEST THREAT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WILL ISSUE AN ESF FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AREA COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS WITH WOULD EXCEED HEADWATER GUIDANCE. AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BASED ON LATER DATA. IN THE SHORT TERM...COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE NORTHEAST TODAY...ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. DB && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 320 PM... GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE. MJ A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT. LS && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 850 PM MST TUE MAR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT... SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS CWA TONIGHT PRODUCING 1-3 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL IN SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE INDICATE BEST MOISTURE IN OUR NE ZONES...WITH KGGW RADAR SHOWING WEAKENING RETURNS...BUT NOT ENDING. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA CONFIRM BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE NOW EAST OF GLASGOW. ASSOCIATED WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALSO WILL SHIFT WIND TO N-NW LATE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH NE MT. STILL SNOWING TO OUR WEST BUT MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER...SO EXPECT SNOW WILL TEND TO TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT END UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. THIS ALSO SEEN ON SATELLITE PICTURES JUST ENTERING OUR WESTERN BORDER. MEANWHILE DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE SNOWFALL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOST PART. SOME AREAS MAY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH ONGOING EVENT DO NOT WANT TO MAKE CHANGES TO IT. ALL OF THIS COVERED VERY WELL IN ONGOING FORECAST AND NO UPDATE PLANNED. MODELS CONTINUE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FORECAST LOWS MAY BE A BIT LOW...NOT ENOUGH FOR AN UPDATE. SIMONSEN .SPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST REMAINS SNOW EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS STILL ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE PROGRESSING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. KGGW RADAR CURRENTLY PICKING UP BEST RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN GLASGOW SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT HAS BEEN MELTING AS IT HITS THE GROUND. NO REAL ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR. FEEL ADVISORY A LITTLE OVERDONE AND EXPECT AN INCH WITH MAYBE A REPORT OR TWO OF 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE AS TO NOT CONFUSE THE PUBLIC SINCE SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING. INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXIT SOUTHEAST ZONES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN OVER THE REGION. WILL TREND POPS WITH EXPECTED MOVEMENT...FOLLOWING BEST DYNAMICS WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON EXTENT OF COLD TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE...SO WILL TREND FORECAST UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. COLD SHOT STILL LOOKS SHORT LIVED AS NEXT SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM PUSHES THROUGH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NICE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN WITH SOUTHWEST SEEING WARM UP FIRST. NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY WITH TROUGH PASSING THURSDAY. NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WEAK TROUGHS APPEAR AT 850...700...AND 500 MB...BUT NOT MUCH OF A SURFACE FEATURE. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. WILL ALSO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MORE. LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE A BETTER MIXER WITH BETTER LAPSE RATES THAN AS OF LATE. WILL ADJUST MOST TEMPERATURES UP FOR THURSDAY. COLDEST AIR SHOULD ONLY LINGER FOR THE ONE DAY IN THE SHORT TERM. STROOZAS .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGING RAPIDLY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA IS GENERALLY UNDER A ZONAL FLOW WITH MANY SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK UPPER PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES WITH A SLIGHT RIDGE. STRONGEST WAVE AND SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN WARMER AIR...DUE PARTIALLY TO STRONG WEST WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS IS BALANCED BY SOME SYNOPTIC COLD ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TLSJR && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT MTZ017>020-061>062. && $$ mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 955 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .PUBLIC... WILL MAKE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND WINDS IN ZONE UPDATE. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW FORECAST LEVELS AS LATEST RUC SHOWING WINDS DROPPING TO AROUND 4 KTS OVER INLAND AREAS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ALONG THE COAST SO PLAN TO DROP WINDS TO 5 TO 10 MPH. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT CURRENT TEMPERATURES SHOW THAT THE LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN EARLIER FORECAST EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S. SO PLAN IS TO MAKE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .MARINE... WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS FORECAST WITH MOST COASTAL MESONET STATIONS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 MPH IN GUSTS. BUOY 41013 ONLY HAS WINDS 10-14 KT OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SEAS AT FPSN7 ARE ONLY INTERMITTENTLY BEING REPORTED BUT WERE 4.5 FT A FEW HOURS AGO. INTERPOLATING IN TOWARD SHORE IT APPEARS 15 KT WITH 3-4 FT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NC WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE GRADIENT OPENS UP. WILL DROP THE EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PUBLIC GUIDANCE GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH REGARD TO WEAK FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT OR REMAINING JUST N OF THE REGION. LEANING MORE TOWARD THE FRONT STALLING N OF THE REGION BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE...EITHER WAY CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER THRU TOMORROW. IMPORTANT FEATURE WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA SAT NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AS PRES GRAD TIGHTENS. TEMPS FLIRT WITH 80 FRI BUT SHOULD BE HELD BACK SAT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER PRESENT. PRECIP FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND CHANCE POPS SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT. WEAK SECONDARY FRONT/BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN MON AND TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. GFS TIMING FROPA TUE AFTN BUT GUIDANCE NOTORIOUSLY FAST WITH FROPAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FROPA OCCUR WED OR WED NIGHT...WILL NOT CARRY MENTION OF PRECIP ON TUE AT THIS TIME. .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN PLACE FOR THE NC WATERS UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT...WITH SEAS RUNNING ABOUT 5 FT CURRENTLY AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FRI INTO SAT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WILL BRING SW WINDS UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRI...WITH SEAS REACHING CRITERIA BY FRI NIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS. GIVEN THE COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES...THE GFS WINDS APPEARS TOO STRONG AND HAVE UNDERCUT ITS WINDS AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE FOR SEAS DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIOD. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SAT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WILMINGTON 56 73 55 77 / 10 10 10 10 LUMBERTON 54 74 54 78 / 10 10 10 10 FLORENCE 55 76 54 79 / 10 10 10 10 MYRTLE BEACH 56 70 56 74 / 10 10 10 10 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC: HAWKINS MARINE: TRA nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1000 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TWO WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM ON 50H/70H ANALYSIS BUT IT IS THE MINOR RIPPLES WITHIN THE ACCELERATED FLOW...COUPLED WITH OUR MOIST AIRMASS AND ENHANCEMENT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET THAT ARE HELPING PRODUCE RAIN THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED SECONDARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS PARKED ITSELF IN NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...ALMOST ALONG INTERSTATE 85...ACTING AS A CONVERGENCE MECHANISM. 06Z MODELS...AND LATEST RUC...SUGGEST THE MAIN FRONT BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. NEITHER TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 50 POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TIER UPSTATE COUNTIES...THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. POPS WERE LOWERED TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER UPSTATE PLUS ELBERT...SINCE BETTER FORCING WILL MISS THOSE AREAS. BREAKS SHOWING UP ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD STRATOCU FIELD SUGGEST BEST WARMING WILL OCCUR THERE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED A 70H THERMAL TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS NOT ESPECIALLY UNSTABLE TODAY; ONE HAS TO GO SOUTHWEST TO BMX TO FIND LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO BUT ONE FEATURE COMMON TO ALL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WAS A CORE OF 40 TO 50 KT 85H WINDS. WITH A LITTLE MIXING LATER TODAY...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ALONG OUR SOUTH AND EAST FLANK. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROF...WE WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN TIER UPSTATE/FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THIS UPDATE. RAINFALL FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS...A QUARTER INCH OF LESS WEST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ONLY CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WAS TO RAISE MAXES TO LOWER 70S FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GSP 68 52 72 52 / 50 30 10 10 AND 69 52 72 53 / 40 30 10 10 CLT 69 52 72 52 / 50 20 10 10 HKY 66 50 70 49 / 50 20 30 30 AVL 64 48 67 48 / 60 30 30 30 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 925 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .UPDATE... WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS UPDATE...TAKING POPS OUT OF THE N CAROLINA ZONES...ALTHOUGH STILL MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO. AM GETTING SOME VERY WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR LAST 30 MINS OVER FAR SE COUNTIES. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP AND DEWPT GRIDS...AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN GRIDS. 00Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT TERM TEMPS AND DEWPTS. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG AS LOWER DEWPT AIR STILL WELL N OF AREA...AND TEMPS HAVE DROPPED NEAR DEWPTS ALREADY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST LAYER SHALLOW...SO THINK WILL SEE ONLY PATCHY FOG...NOT SO WIDESPREAD. MARINE...WILL DROP REMAINING FLAGS AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS BAY AND SOUND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. && $$ va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 350 AM EST WED MAR 3 2004 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL RH BENEATH 3-4KFT INVERSION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TO START. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS THIS MORNING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM MISSORI TO SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SIMILAR AT LEAST FOR SHORT TERM. FIRST CONCERN IS FWC TEMPS APPEAR TOO COOL...SBN MAX 39F AND FWA MAX 40F. PER BUFKIT OVERVIEW APPEARS NGM TO HAVE THE INVERSION HEIGHT TOO LOW...BELOW 2KFT THROUGH MIDDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR MIXING/WARMUP THAT SHOULD BE REALIZED GIVEN ETA/MESOETA/RUC NEAR SURFACE PROFILE. HAVE SIDED WITH THE CURRENT WARMER FORECAST...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH WARMER MAV AND JUST A FEW ABOVE MET GUIDANCE. CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK IMPULSES TO EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS/WAVE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SO HAVE MOVED INCREASED AREAL EXTENT OF CHANCE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER LARGER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH PART OF CWA AND HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH TONIGHT AS PWAT INCREASES TO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 06Z-12Z WITH SLIGHT I295 UPGLIDE AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS APPROACHING 0. DO NOT SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO SUPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH F24 AND QPF WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THEN. && .LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH MOISTURE LADEN GULF AIR. SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE OVER NW IL OR EXTREME E IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER AN ETA/ECMWF BLEND...AS ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING GULF MOISTURE OVER N INDIANA THAN GFS. ALSO...THE GFS APPEARS 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. WILL KEEP STORMS IN FRIDAY GIVEN A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH DRY SLOT ALONG WITH FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY AS TIGHT GRADIENT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD PUSH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH. AFTER FRIDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS/ONGOING FORECAST. TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. && .AVIATION... BEST CHANCE MVFR VIS/CIG BY DAYBREAK AT KSBN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN IL...LESS CHANCE AT KFWA AND WILL COVER THERE WITH BRIEF TEMPO GROUP. DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH END OF FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPO LOW MVFR AT KSBN/IFR KFWA AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE IN LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES INTO REGION THOUGH STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND BEST MOISTURE STILL SOUTHWEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 205 AM MST WED MAR 3 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN AROUND ARRIVAL OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING ISSUES. TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET MOVES NORTHEAST LATE TODAY DECREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. BY 00Z THURSDAY THE FRONT SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS TO ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO A NORTHEAST/EAST DIRECTION. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LIFT OVER THE AREA PER OMEGA FIELDS AND DOWNWARD MOTION FROM THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET. THIS DRY FORECAST PERIOD IS BEST HANDLED BY THE ETA/MM5. ONE CONCERN IS THE FSL RUC II WHICH SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE FSL RUC II DID WELL ON TUESDAY NIGHTS SNOW EVENT I AM HESITANT IN PULLING PRECIP COMPLETELY. GIVEN THE FORECAST AREAL EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE CHANCE OF PRECIP. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES RETURN HOWEVER SO WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD FOG ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MUCH AWAITED STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE EAST/SOUTHEASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA PER THE CLEANER LOOKING FSL RUCII/MM5/NGM/HPC QPF FORECASTS. ETA/GFS SHOWING A SMALL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA AS WELL...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW THEN RAIN. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET MOVES NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...PUTTING THE PRECIP AREA UNDER FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THIS MAY ALSO SUPPORT COOLING FROM ALOFT AND A BETTER THREAT FOR SNOW. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS AND BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO OUR LATEST PRECIPITATION EVENT. WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION VS NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 06Z...ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE LOWERING THEM CONSIDERABLY. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ETA INDICATES A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING...ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRINGING A WARMUP TO THE AREA. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...LATEST 00Z GFS/UKMET KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA DONT GENERATE THE LEE TROUGH. TODAYS MRF/GFS SIMILAR AT 850 MB WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...I WONT QUIBBLE OVER A FEW DEGREES AND WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES AS IS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER A NEAR ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UPPER PATTERN. 850 TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE ZERO SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SCOOTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ITS IMPACT WILL BE LESS. WILL KNOCK EVERYONE DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT WHICH MATCHES SURROUNDING OFFICES WELL. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH 850 TEMPERATURES COOLER. FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES PER GFS FORECAST AND LATEST MEX GUIDANCE. MONDAY-TUESDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 140 AM CST WED MAR 3 2004 .UPDATED... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING DECENT BRIGHT BANDING TAKING PLACE ALONG A HUTCHINSON TO MCPHERSON LINE. THIS AREA IS ALSO BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOWERING CEILINGS, BUT THEY ARE STILL MOSTLY VFR. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS IS NOT ADVERTISING THIS AT THE MOMENT POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAKER UPGLIDE AT 280K OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS STILL GOOD UPGLIDE GOING ACROSS THE LEVELS ABOVE 285K THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN GOING. ON ANOTHER NOTE, THERE IS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT ARE RIDING NORTH. THIS IS IN THE MIDST OF STRONG LIFT AROUND 295K. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA, BUT MOST AREAS WILL JUST SEE THE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. -------------------------------------------------------------------- MAIN FOCUS WL BE ON THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SWRN U.S. THIS SYSTEM WL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR FCST AREA WITH PRECIPITATION AS SOON AS TONIGHT, AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ONE WAVE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/THICKEN THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SOON THEREAFTER. THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT (MID 30S TO AROUND 40). FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE. SOME RAIN COULD ADVECT NWD INTO SRN KS FM OKLAHOMA, SO WL TAPER POPS FM LOWEST IN CNTRL KS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SE. BUT HAVE UNDERCUT ALL MODEL POPS. OTHERWISE, SKIES OVERCAST. WED NIGHT-THURS NIGHT: AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD INTO SERN KS. PLENTY OF DYNAMIC FORCING PROGGED WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE. WITH 850 DWPTS OF 8-10 C PROGGED, SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THE RAIN PROSPECTS ARE HIGH. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE LIMITED, BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH SERN KS IF THEY BRIEFLY WARM SECTOR PER THE ETA THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY: LINGERING LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED UNTIL THE 850-700 TROUGHS MOVE EWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA. THE CLOUDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD KEEP OUR AREA IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS, DESPITE THE NW WIND COMPONENT. SAT-MON: THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND SUGGEST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA 38 48 42 46 / 70 50 70 100 HUTCHINSON 37 47 40 44 / 60 50 60 100 NEWTON 37 48 41 45 / 60 50 60 100 ELDORADO 38 48 42 47 / 70 50 70 100 STROTHER FIELD 40 50 43 49 / 70 60 80 100 RUSSELL 35 44 34 41 / 50 40 40 90 GREAT BEND 36 46 37 42 / 60 40 50 90 SALINA 36 47 38 42 / 50 40 50 100 MCPHERSON 36 47 39 43 / 60 50 50 100 COFFEYVILLE 41 51 46 54 / 80 70 90 100 CHANUTE 39 50 43 51 / 70 60 80 100 IOLA 38 50 43 50 / 70 60 70 100 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 9/CARUSO ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 215 AM CST WED MAR 3 2004 ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A GOOD BET TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL CENTER AROUND HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND POSSIBLE FLOODING SITUATION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND HAND ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MEXICO. GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SURFACE FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA. MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND 850 DEW POINTS OF 10-12 DEGREES C. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE WAS SHOWING GOOD AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL PRETTY DRY AND PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. QUICK LOOK AT SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOSEST PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LOWER LEVELS WERE BEGINNING TO SATURATE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. DONT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE WAY MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT NOT MUCH CHANGES TONIGHT IN THE GRIDS AND RESULTANT FORECAST. GFS STILL THE WETTER OF THE TWO SHORT TERM MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY PREFERRED OVER THE ETA QPF AT THIS TIME. PROFILERS SHOW THAT 850 WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SOUTH SINCE 00Z AT CONWAY AND SHOULD SEE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS TODAY AND WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. 850 JET SETS UP NICELY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH BITS OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN SOUTHWEST LOW INTO THE AREA. SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT AND INCREASED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT THOUGH WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES (PER THE ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS). AS UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT BUT WILL BRING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AVAILABLE WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THURSDAY EVENING MAY BE INTERESTING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY. WILL LIKELY SEE A SQUALL LINE DEVELOP BUT MAY SEE SOME INDIVIDUAL SEVERE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW HELICITIES FROM 300-500 THURSDAY EVENING WITH SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. SQUALL LINE SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF ANY WATCH UNTIL NEXT SHIFT OR TWO. WILL UPDATE THE CURRENT ESF AND MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FIRST SYSTEM. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SECOND WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR EITHER SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AND GULF REMAINS SHUT OFF FROM MOISTURE RETURN. LINDENBERG && .AVIATION... EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN A DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE. A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE LATEST RUC INDICATES WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING. WITH THIS DATA IN MIND...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOME THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE UPCOMING 12Z TAFS FOR KJLN AND KSGF. SAW && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 330 AM CST WED MAR 3 2004 FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS AND UPCOMING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. .DISCUSSION... LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NE ACROSS EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF INVERTED TROF/FRONT. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS TROF MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT...WITH SOME CAA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FCST TRICKY AS LLVL WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND SFC TROF AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA TO HELP OFFSET CAA. HOWEVER SNOWCOVER OVER W/NW CWA SHOULD LIMIT ANY WARMING AS WELL...OVERALL WENT NEAR OR BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MOVING INTO PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY COOL NIGHT WITH GOING FCST TEMPS IN LINE. FCST CHALLENGE INCREASED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS EAST PAC INTO WEST COAST THROUGH THIS TIME UPPER LOW OVER BAJA ATTM WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM DIVING INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. ETA/GFS HANDLING BOTH FEATURES DIFFERENTLY AS TO BE EXPECTED LATELY...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO WX GRIDS THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WOULD LEAN TOWARDS ETA SOUTHERN/DRIER SOLUTION BASED ON CURRENT LOCATION OF UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OVER BAJA AND GFS TRENDING SLIGHLY TOWARD THE ETA IN LAST FEW RUNS. ALSO LOOKS TO BE HEALTHY CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO REMOVE PCPN TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING AS LIFT AND MOISTURE IS LACKING. RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH GFS TRENDING STRONGER WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATTERN THEN WILL AMPLIFY AS THIS SYTEM DIGS TROF OVER NE CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMUP FOR END OF FCST PERIOD AND THIS TREND IS FOLLOWED BY CURRENT GRID WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ATTM. && .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SWERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION. 250 JET CORE PER RUC ANALYSIS SPREADS FROM KTUS TO KABQ TO KOAX AND POINTS EAST. LOW LEVEL JET FLOW OVER A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NE CO SW INTO NW KANSAS...COMBINED WITH A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SW...ARE PROVIDING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE CWA. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 13/JC ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 315 AM CST WED MAR 03 2004 .DISCUSSION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER. LATEST REGIONAL 88D'S INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA (LIKELY AIDED BY INCOMING SHORTWAVE) AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS (ISENTROPIC LIFT) AND IS PROGRESSING NEWD INTO FORECAST AREA. PCPN TYPE VARIES WITH RAIN ACROSS KANSAS AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN THRU MID MORNING...BUT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT SFC TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO MUCH MORE. HAVE A MIX OF PCPN TYPES GOING FOR THE MORNING HOURS...SNOW IN THE NORTH...RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH...AND A MIX IN THE MIDDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A WARM UP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING...CHANGING ANY PREDOMINANT SNOW OVER TO A RA/SN MIX...WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING RAIN. EXPECTING JUST A MORNING EVENT FOR THE SOUTH AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THRU THE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 300MB JET STREAK PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY AND AN INCREASE IN THETA-E ADVECTION WOULD HELP SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NORTH. GFS/ETA/NGM ALL PAINT ABOUT A 0.10" BULLSEYE AROUND OUR NRN COUNTIES. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...EXPECT THIS TO START OUT AS SNOW...THEN SWITCH TO A MIX LATER THIS MORNING. THAT SAID...UNDER AN INCH ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS FORCING SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS. ETA STILL PRODUCES A SWATH OF QPF NEAR WK SFC CONVERGENCE AREA AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AREA. NOT BUYING INTO THIS BASED ON LACK OF GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO WILL GO WITH DRY TONIGHT PD. PCPN CHANCES INCREASE GREATLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO NRN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY ERN KS. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE SYSTEM AND PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS ERN KS EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING NWD THRU THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAIN EVENT FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. PCPN TYPE? GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING COLD AIR IN FASTER THAN ETA. WILL GO WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE HERE AND RUN WITH THE ETA. LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FEEL THAT PLENTY OF MILD AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM...AND HOLD OFF THE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SAID...DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST JUST AS WE BEGIN TO SWITCH MOST AREAS OVER TO SNOW. WILL END PCPN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PCPN. NOT READY TO THROW IN POPS QUITE YET AS MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WINDY WITH TIGHT SFC GRADIENT BETWEEN 1040 HIGH IN THE WEST AND STRONG LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS LOW OVR THE GREAT LAKES DROPS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. && WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...NONE. .IA...NONE. && $$ GRIFFIS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 330 AM MST WED MAR 3 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) UPPER LOW IS STILL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 110KT UPPER JET STILL DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN SIDE. THUS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TODAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF NM/AZ BY 12Z THURS. AREA RADARS SHOWING GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND NE NM. A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THIS AREA COINCIDES WELL WITH AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 295 AND 300K SFCS. MESO-ETA SHIFTS THIS AREA EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING SOME SCATTERED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN BORDER SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. OUT WEST...LATEST WV/SAT NOT SHOWING MUCH GOING ON...AND WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN REPORTING ONLY SOME STRATUS THROUGH LAST COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS GOING FOR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING. SW OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT IS QUITE LIGHT...AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP...SO WILL DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH NEW PACKAGE. ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH WITH LIGHT SE FLOW COLORADO SPRINGS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FOG THROUGH AROUND 15Z OR SO. HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS SOME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY ACROSS SE PLAINS. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 50S. BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR OUT. THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURGE WILL BACK DOOR INTO SE CO AS SFC HIGH ASSOC WITH NRN STREAM TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NRN US ROCKIES/PLAINS. WILL KEEP GOING TEMPS WHICH IS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY ACROSS SE PLAINS... WHICH WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF DEEP MIXING ARGUING FOR COOLER MAXES. FOR TONIGHT...00Z MESO-ETA WAS BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS SE PLAINS IN THE EVENING. 00Z GFS ALSO DEPICTS THIS. HOWEVER...LATEST 06Z RUN OF MESO-ETA AND GFS NOW KEEP BEST LIFT FURTHER SOUTH...AND QPF IS MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL PROBABLY BE TRENDING BACK POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN AREAS SOME MORE... THOUGH WILL NOT REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IF LATER RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER. EITHER WAY...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES...AND LOWER LVLS SATURATE ACROSS SE PLAINS...SO ADDED SOME AREAS OF FOG TO EASTERN PLAINS. ALSO WARMED UP LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ACROSS SW MTNS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS. AGAIN...OROGRAPHICS REMAIN LIGHT...SO A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK REASONABLE. -KT .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THIS CYCLE APPEARS TO BE AMOUNT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE BAJA REGION THIS MORNING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY SUNSET THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DIVERGING VIEWS ON PRECIPITATION SCHEMES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MESO-ETA BEING THE MOST STINGY AND AVN BEING QUITE GENEROUS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. FOR NOW...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE MESO-ETA SOLUTION... BUT NOT DISCOUNTING THE AVN ENTIRELY...THEREFORE WENT WITH A BLEND IN THE UPCOMING GRIDS/ZONES. SO FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECT A WIDE SPECTRUM IN THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS GETTING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WHILE SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWFA SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION TO RECEIVE THE MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS INTO LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. WILL PAINT 24 HOUR SNOW TOTALS FROM SUNRISE THURSDAY TO SUNRISE FRIDAY TO RUN IN THE 1 TO 5 INCH RANGE THESE SECTIONS...THEREFORE NO HIGHLIGHTS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GENERAL AREA. WEATHER THEN APPEARS TO BECOME MORE MANAGEABLE FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS CWFA SWITCHES TO A MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WHICH MEANS THAT OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS... POPS GENERALLY NIL. THERE IS A HINT OF SOME MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY NEXT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR NOW WILL ADD SOME LOW GRADE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES MOST AREAS THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO HAVE THE COOLEST READINGS...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO REBOUND BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE THE WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESIDE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOVER AROUND TO A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE LONG TERM. FINALLY...WINDS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS TOO LOW TO JUMP ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING. [77KALINA] && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 645 AM EST WED MAR 3 2004 .AVIATION... FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIG AT KSBN/MVFR VSBY AT KFWA TIL 15Z WHEN MIXING SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS. CONTINUED WITH SIMILAR TIMING FOR TEMPO LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT AS HIHER PWAT AIR WORKS NORTH/WEAK FORCING. CONCERN RAISED ABOUT TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF QPF OF THE MORE AGREESIVE 06Z MESOETA BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY RUC/ETA/GOING FORECAST TIMING. SATURATION OF LOW LEVELS TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CIGS/STRATUS FORMATION AND IFR VSBY...BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CRITICAL 2SM/600FT THIS FAR OUT. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL RH BENEATH 3-4KFT INVERSION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TO START. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS THIS MORNING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM MISSORI TO SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SIMILAR AT LEAST FOR SHORT TERM. FIRST CONCERN IS FWC TEMPS APPEAR TOO COOL...SBN MAX 39F AND FWA MAX 40F. PER BUFKIT OVERVIEW APPEARS NGM TO HAVE THE INVERSION HEIGHT TOO LOW...BELOW 2KFT THROUGH MIDDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR MIXING/WARMUP THAT SHOULD BE REALIZED GIVEN ETA/MESOETA/RUC NEAR SURFACE PROFILE. HAVE SIDED WITH THE CURRENT WARMER FORECAST...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH WARMER MAV AND JUST A FEW ABOVE MET GUIDANCE. CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK IMPULSES TO EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS/WAVE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SO HAVE MOVED INCREASED AREAL EXTENT OF CHANCE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER LARGER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH PART OF CWA AND HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH TONIGHT AS PWAT INCREASES TO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 06Z-12Z WITH SLIGHT I295 UPGLIDE AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS APPROACHING 0. DO NOT SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO SUPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH F24 AND QPF WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THEN. && .LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH MOISTURE LADEN GULF AIR. SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE OVER NW IL OR EXTREME E IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER AN ETA/ECMWF BLEND...AS ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING GULF MOISTURE OVER N INDIANA THAN GFS. ALSO...THE GFS APPEARS 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. WILL KEEP STORMS IN FRIDAY GIVEN A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH DRY SLOT ALONG WITH FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY AS TIGHT GRADIENT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD PUSH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH. AFTER FRIDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS/ONGOING FORECAST. TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1107 AM EST WED MAR 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST ISSUE IS ONSET OF -SN OVER THE W THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SFC...REFLECTION WAS A TROF FROM SD INTO NW MN. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF -SN ALONG THE SFC TROF WITH SFC OBS INDICATING VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1SM AT TIMES. 12Z KINL SOUNDING DEPICTED A MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 4C WHILE KMPX SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER FROM 650-850MB...BUT NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT. SO...DRY AIR SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR INHIBITOR TO DELAYING ONSET OF SNOW AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING -SN ARRIVAL THIS AFTN/TONIGHT WITH -SN BEGINNING OVER THE W AFTER 20Z. BASED ON SIMPLE LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION...THIS TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL JUST ADD A LITTLE DETAIL TO ERLY PROGRESSION IN THE HOURLY GRIDS... INCLUDING A SLIGHT DELAY TO -SN ONSET TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. AS FOR AMOUNTS...12Z ETA/RUC SHOW MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG AVBL ON 285K SFC (AROUND 750MB). HOWEVER...WINDS ARE ORIENTED AT SMALL ANGLE TO ISOBARS (ABOUT 45 DEGREES) SO LIFT IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG. PLUS...SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY. THUS...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FCST OF 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. GOING FCST HIGHS IN THE MID 30S LOOK ON TRACK. CLOUDS ARE THINNING A BIT TO ALLOW SOME WEAK SUN OVER WRN FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. WILL HOWEVER MAKE SOME VERY SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LIMITED SUN. QUICK GLANCE AT INCOMING 12Z MODELS SUGGESTS WINTER STORM WATCH HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED LATE THU NIGHT/FRI FOR A GOOD PART OF FCST AREA AS POTENT WINTER STORM RACES NE THRU WRN LAKES. WILL NEED TO EXAMINE LATEST MODEL RUNS MORE CLOSELY TO PIN DOWN AREA FOR LATE AFTN FCST ISSUANCE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 255 PM MST WED MAR 3 2004 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OR END IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY...WITH A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW TAKING ITS TIME DRIFTING EAST...INTO SONORA MEX. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED OVER MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GLOBE AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH GETTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. RUC AND ETA SHOW THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH AT LEAST 2 VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER. SHOWERS AND SOME NON-CONVECTIVE PRECIP ALSO MOVING NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST...AS A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING BY US BY THURSDAY AM. GFS SHOWS LINGERING PRECIP OVER MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AS WRAP AROUND RH GIVES LIGHT PRECIP. WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE QPF...AND MOST PHOENIX AREA SITES CAN EXPECT .10 TO .20 AT THE MOST. EVEN WITH A RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY HIGHER ELEVS OF ZONE 24. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND WILL INSERT PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOWER COLORADO RIVER ZONES/WESTERN DESERTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT RISES STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...240M HEIGHT RISES IN THE PHX AREA BETWEEN FRI MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING. WARMEST DAYS LIKELY TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WE WARM INTO THE 80S...BUT THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM SHOULD BE WATCHED AS IT MAY SHOW FURTHER SPLITTING NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL DROP TEMPS AND KEEP CWA DRY. && .PSR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ SAS az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1235 PM EST WED MAR 3 2004 .AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS HAVE HUNG AROUND AND LOOK TO CONTINUE AT SBN WITH A BRIEF REPRISE TO VFR AT FWA BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A SHOT OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY DRY BEFORE MORE RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TOMORROW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH LOW LEVEL RH BENEATH 3-4KFT INVERSION ACROSS FORECAST AREA TO START. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS THIS MORNING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SIMILAR AT LEAST FOR SHORT TERM. FIRST CONCERN IS FWC TEMPS APPEAR TOO COOL...SBN MAX 39F AND FWA MAX 40F. PER BUFKIT OVERVIEW APPEARS NGM TO HAVE THE INVERSION HEIGHT TOO LOW...BELOW 2KFT THROUGH MIDDAY NOT ALLOWING FOR MIXING/WARMUP THAT SHOULD BE REALIZED GIVEN ETA/MESOETA/RUC NEAR SURFACE PROFILE. HAVE SIDED WITH THE CURRENT WARMER FORECAST...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH WARMER MAV AND JUST A FEW ABOVE MET GUIDANCE. CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK IMPULSES TO EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS/WAVE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SO HAVE MOVED INCREASED AREAL EXTENT OF CHANCE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER LARGER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH PART OF CWA AND HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH TONIGHT AS PWAT INCREASES TO ABOVE 1 INCH BY 06Z-12Z WITH SLIGHT I295 UPGLIDE AND SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS APPROACHING 0. DO NOT SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH F24 AND QPF WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THEN. LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES WITH MOISTURE LADEN GULF AIR. SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE OVER NW IL OR EXTREME E IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER AN ETA/ECMWF BLEND...AS ETA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING GULF MOISTURE OVER N INDIANA THAN GFS. ALSO...THE GFS APPEARS 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO FAST WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. WILL KEEP STORMS IN FRIDAY GIVEN A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH DRY SLOT ALONG WITH FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY AS TIGHT GRADIENT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD PUSH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH. AFTER FRIDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS/ONGOING FORECAST. TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 200 PM MST WED MAR 3 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN AROUND ARRIVAL OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...12Z ETA IS DEEPER WITH THE 500 MB LEVEL FEATURE AND SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS SEAMS TO FIT THE RAOB DATA AND IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOIL/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT TRENDS NOTED WHEN COMPARING THE 06Z/12Z OUTPUT FROM THE ETA OR THE GFS BUT PREVIOUS OOZ RUNS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE KICKING SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...AND A SLOWER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN ETA/GFS ON THURSDAY WITH TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM AS ETA PLACES THE 500 MB LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AT 00Z FRIDAY WHILE GFS IS 150 MILES OR SO NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ETA IS SLOWER COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS...AND PREFER THE ETA FOR SURFACE LOW POSITION WHICH APPEARS TO FIT THE UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE POPS WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS. ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALL RAIN...BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH TO WARM AND THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS ICE WILL BE INTRODUCED WITH MOIST LAYER IN THE -12 DEGREE REGION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SNOW/RAIN MIX IN THE SOUTHEAST CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND ALL SNOW IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST. AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE TO MCCOOK. TO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS OF SNOW DUE TO THE PHASE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF CHANGE COMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OR EARLY EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER AND APPROACH ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND REASONABLE AGREEMENT...INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND CARRIED A MENTION INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN THE EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIODS...LOWERED HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH EXPECTED SNOWFALL AND LESS PROGRESSIVE TREND OF LIFTING SYSTEM NORTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ MWM ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 240 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IN NEAR TERM IS ON DEPARTING SNOW AND ITS TIMING. LONGER TERM, THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE WI CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GOOD JET DYNAMICS SETTING UP TO SUPPORT A LATE WINTER STORM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. FIRST EVENT IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET SEGMENT IN NRN MN WHICH IS CREATING A TIGHT BULLS EYE OF OMEGA WHICH ALL MODELS PICK UP ON. THE AVN/GFS WAS BEST IN THIS DEPICTION AT 18Z. THIS ANALYSIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST RUC. IT SPREADS RAPIDLY ENE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY EVENING. GOING WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM DULUTH NORTH LOOKS GOOD. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A DRY LWR LYR WAS HAVE A LITTLE TROUBLE SATURATING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNTS AS WELL. IN SHORT, WE WILL CONTINUE THE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME EVENING CLEARING WILL SENT THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MN, BUT THE AVN/GFS IS REALLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLEARING, CONSIDERING HE WIDE AREA OF STRATOCU IN THE DAKOTAS. OF MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS THE SNOW SWATH PROGGED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE NEXT JET SEGMENT EMERGES FROM THE TROUGH IN THE SWRN US AND HEADS NORTH. AS IT HEADS NORTH, THAT JET AND THE 140 KT SEGMENT OVER NORTHER WI BEGIN TO COUPLE UP AND PRODUCE A STRONG DIVERGENCE FIELD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT AND THE SWATCH OF PCPN THRU WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THAT SWATH SLICES ACROSS THE SERN PTN OF OUR WISCONSIN CWA. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS, EXCELLENT FETCH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMES INTO PLAY. SO WE WILL EXTEND THE WATCH INTO BAYFIELD, ASHLAND, AND IRON COUNTIES DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW WILL BE WET WHICH MAY CUT DOWN ON THE AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER RATIOS. BUT THAT'S SOMETHING TO DEAL WITH LATER, WHEN A WARNING MIGHT BECOME MORE APPROPRIATE. CURRENT GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WE WILL GO WITH A VALUE FOR TEMPERATURES THAT IS A MIX OF ETA AND GFS, BUT WILL FAVOR THE ETA VALUES, BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE LAST EVENING. WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FINDING IT EASIER TO PERSIST AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MN...NONE. WI...WINTER STORM WATCH...WIZ003-004-007>009 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. $$ CS mn SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 351 PM CST WED MAR 3 2004 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT 5H MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT THEN STALL OUT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVES TO THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AREA ON THURSDAY. MAIN FEATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE POSE QUESTIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE FOG AND PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES. FIRST...AREAS OF FOG PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE IMPROVED AS WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND EXPECT FOG WILL DIMINISH FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THE RUC40 INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BROADEN AND STALL OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOPING DURING THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE EJECTS FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS SOUTH. WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM YORK TO BEAVER CITY. MODELS EACH HANDLE THIS A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. ETA CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS WHILE THE REST ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER. .LONG TERM...THU NIGHT ON. STRONG SRN STREAM SW TROF PINWHEELING AROUND NRN BAHA THIS AFTN. HWVR POTENT INCOMING NRN STREAM SW TROF ALREADY ON PAC NW COAST SO XPC SRN STREAM WV TO EJECT OUT OVERNIGHT. MORE PHASED AND INTENSE SOLUTIONS IN ORDER AND INDICATIVE OF MODEL TRENDS BUT PERHAPS SOME MORE CATCHING UP TO DO YET. PLACEMENT OF THIS SYS OVR NRN MEXICO FRAUGHT W/POTENTIAL INITIALIZATION ERRORS BUT ANY FURTHER DELAY OF SYS EJECTION CONSTITUTES BTR SNOW CHC ACRS NE CWA THU NIGHT/FRI AM. OF NOTE CONTS TO BE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF COLD LL WEDGE SITTING ACRS THE DAKOTAS. AS OF 20Z...LEADING EDGE OF WK COLD FRONT INTO NW NEB ATTM. SO STANDING DILEMMA IS WHERE 0 DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM WILL LAY OUT AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. DEFINITELY A POTENTIAL BIG SNOW THERE GIVEN TREMENDOUS FORCED ASCENT THAT ARISES INADV OF RAPID DEEPENING OF LOW/MID LVL CYCLONE. BELIEVE ALG W/OTHER OFFICES NEARBY MODELS UNDER DOING DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION OF INTENSE UPWARD MOTION ESP IN LIGHT OF PROGGED MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN COUPLED JET STRUCTURE THU NIGHT. HWVR...SOLUTIONS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHG TO SNOW ALG AND NW OF AN ALMA TO OSCEOLA LINE. GENERAL EXPECTATION HERE IS FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6+ IF A SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION MATERIALIZES LATER. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE 1-2. HEAVY RAIN THREAT STILL THERE...ESP ALG/NR 850MB LOW TRACK W/TREMENDOUS MSTR FLUX COMING IN OFF THE GOMEX AND THERMAL BNDRY PARALLEL TO UPR FLW. OFFICES S RAISING FLOOD WATCHES AND LIKELY NEED ACRS FAR SE CWA COME TOMORROW ASSUMING HEAVY QPF AXIS DOES NOT SHIFT ANY FURTHER NW. 18Z META/ETA SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NW W/SYS TRACK AND VERY WET. AFT THAT...UPSTREAM SYS STEAMING THRU GULF OF AK ALLOWS FOR WK SW RIDGING ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING SAT BEFORE WK COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACRS CWA LT SAT AND COOLS TEMPS SUN. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON OVERALL LW TROF DEVELOPMENT ACRS ERN US AND DEGREE OF COOLING THIS FAR W BUT GOING NUMBERS MON-WED LOOK FINE IF NOT TOO COOL. DRY OTHERWISE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...NONE. .KS...NONE. && $$ JCB/T ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1115 AM CST WED MAR 3 2004 .UPDATE... LOWERED TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED FOGGY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO VERY PERSISTENT COOL SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. USED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA FORECAST GRIDDED HIGHS...WHICH AGREES REASONABLY WELL WITH CURRENT TRENDS. RADAR INDICATING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO FORM WITHIN THE DEEP NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND MOVE NORTHWARD. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BROKE THROUGH NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF FRONT OFF TO THE EAST... PROBABLY INDICATING A PREFERENCE FOR THIS ZONE EXTENDING BACK TOWARD SURFACE LOW...OR JUST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS MAY BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RELATED TO HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL...WE WILL BE STUDYING FURTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MCQUEEN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/99 tx