SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI 925 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 SEEMED TO HAVE INHERITED A NEAR PERFECT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES PLANNED EXCEPT FOR TAKING OUT THE MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS. INTENSE TSRA CELL DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE MIAMI-DADE METRO AREA THIS EVENING AND ROLLED ACROSS THE OFFICE ON THE FIU MAIN CAMPUS WITH JUST UNDER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR. THAT HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO WILL HAVE WORDING IN THE MARINE ZONES OF ISOLATED SHRA ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SOMETHING SIMILAR. CLOUD COVER THINNING NICELY OVER THE MAINLAND WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUBLE COMES IN THAT BOTH THE RUC AND MESO-ETA KEEP DEW POINTS HOVERING AROUND THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SO TEMPERATURES MAY NOT QUITE GET DOWN TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS DO SHOW TEMP AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WITH THIS AIRMASS FILTERING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SO IT MAY JUST BE A PROBLEM WITH RESOLUTION AND NOT BEING ABLE TO RECOGNIZE THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STILL WARM ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MAINLAND. SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. ALSO...COULD BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH ALL OF THE RAIN BUT FEEL THAT SINCE IT WAS JUST ONE CELL PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND ONLY ISOLATED AREAS WILL SEE ANY SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. MARINE WINDS ARE RIGHT ON TARGET SO THEY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. .MIA...NONE. $$ fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1016 AM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 12Z RAOB AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE/CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/FAVORABLE JET ALOFT (RRQ) AND ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES FOR THE LAST 24-36 HOURS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE (NOTED ON WV LOOP) IS MOVING INTO THE FA FROM THE GULF. THIS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SECONDARY UPPER JET DIVES TOWARD THE SERN STATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENTS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOST ZONES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS CENTRAL AND SOUTH DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS WILL TWEAK ZONES SLIGHTLY TO FIT THESE TRENDS. IN ADDITION WILL MONITOR TEMPS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...AND IF NEEDED WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. MARINE...C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOYS ALONG WITH LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING PACKAGE...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 1030 AM UPDATE. THANKS FOR COORD KMIA. .TBW...NONE. MCMICHAEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 725 PM MST FRI NOV 1 2002 UPDATED TONIGHT AND SATURDAYS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF WIDESPREAD FOG OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN CWA WHERE PATCHY FOG WAS INCLUDED. LATEST ANALYSIS HAS FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A FEW MILES JUST TO OUR WEST WHERE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS. LATEST FSL RUCII AND 18Z ETA INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES DECREASING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ITS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE CLOSER TOWARD MORNING. THE FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING. OTHER THAN THAT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. .GLD...NONE. DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 356 PM CST FRI NOV 1 2002 TNGHT-SAT ACTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. RUC CURRENTLY SHOWS DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF TX AND OK. THIS WAS GIVING WAY TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. 850MB/70OMB PROFILERS ACROSS NM WERE SHOWING A NICE BACKING TREND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WAVE JUST OFF SW CONUS EMBEDDED IN SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AIM AT THAT AREA LATE TNGHT AND WILL PUSH DEEPER MSTR AXIS NORTH AS A RESULT. KAMA SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS SATURATED UP TO 700MB AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THIS MSTR LOOKS TO APPROACH OUR DOORSTEP WHICH COULD TURN THE PRECIP SWITCH ON LATE TNGHT OR EARLY SAT MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SAT MORNING WILL BE A TRICKY FCST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS HAS ME CONCERNED IF THIS MSTR AND LIFT CAN WORK ITS WAY UP THERE. SNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST ICE PELLETS/FRZ RA POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE MORNING FOR CENTRAL KS. THIS COULD EVEN REACH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOO WITH SOUTH CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME FROZEN PELLETS EARLY BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO COLD RAIN. THE KEY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING TEMPS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THIS WILL DICTATE WHAT HAPPENS TO PRECIP WHEN IT REACHES THE SFC. IT WILL BE A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND TIMING OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO PUSH NORTH. EITHER WAY IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING PRECIP IF THE COLD AIR HANGS IN TIGHT. JUST A HEADS UP FOR LATER SHIFTS NOW DUE TO A LOT OF FACTORS. WILL GO WITH POP GRADIENT FROM S-N. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING ITS WHEELS FOR SOME TIME NOW FINALLY APPEARS THAT IT WILL GET A PUSH. SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT NGHT AND GIVE ANOTHER ADDED BOOST TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. WONT TAKE MUCH LIFT FOR PRECIP SINCE MSTR WILL ALREADY BE IN THE AREA. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE LIQUID VARIETY SAT NIGHT ATTM. SUN-MON COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE DOWNGLIDE SHUTTING PRECIP OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALSO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUD COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON. SFC HIGH PRESS WILL RACE DOWN AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MSTR TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY BACK AROUND AS SFC HIGH PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE TOUGH WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE PROBABLY BEING SCOURED OUT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE SLIGHT POPS IN ATTM TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING OF POPS. EXTENDED:TUES-FRI UPPER LOW OFF OF SW CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE PLAINS VIA SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. ECM/GFS AGREE ON PUSHING A FRONT THRU THE AREA EARLY ON TUES. GOOD SUBSIDENCE DOWNGLIDE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT QUICKLY. GOING ON OUR 4TH WEEK OF NW FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GFS KEEPS THIS PATTERN THRU WED THEN SHIFTS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD...WHILE ECM SHOWS THE SAME FEATURE BUT HOLDS THE RIDGE BACK A BIT. EITHER WAY UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE A BIT EASTWARD SO WILL GO WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE PROBABLY KICKING IN FOR THUR AND FRI. WILL ALSO KEEP FRI DRY FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE A POSSIBLE INTRO LATER ON IF MSTR CAN JUMP BACK INTO EQUATION. FCSTID = 15/JAKUB ICT 33 44 40 50 / 20 40 40 30 HUT 30 41 38 49 / 20 30 30 30 EWK 32 42 39 49 / 20 30 40 30 EQA 32 43 40 50 / 20 40 40 30 WLD 35 44 40 52 / 20 50 50 30 RSL 29 40 34 47 / 10 20 30 30 GBD 30 40 36 48 / 10 20 30 30 SLN 29 40 37 47 / 10 20 30 30 MPR 32 42 39 49 / 20 30 40 30 CFV 34 43 41 53 / 20 60 50 30 CNU 32 43 41 53 / 10 40 50 30 K88 31 42 41 53 / 10 40 50 30 .ICT... KS...NONE. ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVR SE CAN DOWNWND OF UPR RDG OVR WRN CAN. CWA DOMINATED BY NWLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF UPR TROF...AND THIS FLOW HAS ADVCTD MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE NW GRT LKS. A SHRTWV IS NOTED DIGGING SE FM NRN MANITOBA INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...HI PRES HAS DROPPED INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL CNDN SHRTWV IS NOW NR YPL AND MOVG SE AS WELL. A WSW LLVL FLOW BTWN THE LO TO THE N AND HI TO THE S IS ADVCTG VERY DRY/STABLE AIR OBSVD IN MN AND DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL SDNG (SFC DWPTS ARND 15...AND INL KINX IS -32 WITH SHARP INVRN AT H85) INTO THE CWA. SO EVEN THOUGH SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN WAD PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF CNDN SHRTWV IS MOVG INTO THE CWA...NOTHING BUT MID/HI CLD OBSVD OVR CWA ATTM. 00Z YPL SDNG SHOWS SHARP INVRN AT H8...WITH ONLY HIEST 50MB OF RATHER DRY MIXED LYR NR SATURATION. YQD SDNG MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCHG NRN MN SHOWS A MORE MOIST BLYR...BUT SHARP INVRN NOTED AT H9. ONLY SOME --SN RPRTS IN THESE AREAS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL FOR LES LATE/MIN TEMPS. 00Z RUC/ETA SHOW CNDN SHRTWV DIGGING THRU CWA OVRNGT AND BECMG RATHER SHEARED WITH SFC LO REACHING JUST E OF ANJ BY 12Z. MAJORITY OF NGT SHUD BE IN RELATIVELY DRY WLY FLOW TO S OF SFC LO/COLD FNT. AS SFC LO REACHES A POSITION JUST E OF ANJ TOWARD DAWN...ETA/RUC SHOW COLD FNT PASSING THRU KEWEENAW AND REACHING SRN LK SHORE TO THE E. ALTHOUGH SOME SHSN SHUD DVLP ALG AND BEHIND THIS FNT...RELATIVELY LO INVRN HGT AND DRY SUB INVRN AIR WL HINDER LES DVLPMNT. BEST SHOT AT LES WL OCCUR OVR THE ERN SNOWBELTS WITH A LONGER FETCH AND MORE DIRECT SHOT OF CAD SAT MRNG 12Z-18Z. BUT EVEN HERE...00Z ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATE INVRN AT H85-875 WITH QVECTOR DVGC IN WAKE OF SHRTWV OCCURRING DURIND PD OF CAD (NO LK ENHANCEMENT) MAINTAINING THE LO INVRN. LES CHART SUGS LESS THAN 3 INCHES IN 6 HRS. WL MENTION UP TO AN INCH BY DAWN...THEN 1 TO 2 INCHES TMRW MRNG FOR ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS WL REMAIN IN THE TEENS...COMBINATION OF TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/WLY FLOW (RUC SHOWS H925 WNDS 20 TO 30 KTS ALL NGT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INL SDNG SHOWING 32 TO 35 KT WNDS AT 2-3K FT AGL) AND SCT-BKN CLD COVER WL PREVENT MINS FM FALLING CLOSE TO THE DWPT. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS JUST A BIT TO REFLECT IMPACT OF MIXING IN H100-85 THKNS RDG THAT REMAINS OVR CWA UNTIL DAWN. COORDINATED WITH APX. AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS: SAT NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LES SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AS WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME SRLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. SUN...WHILE ETA MOISTURE PRFL WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY PCPN...AVN 280-290K FCST COND PRES TO NEAR 10 MB LOOKS MORE PROMISING BUT MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW. SO...PCPN REDUCED TO MENTION OF FLURRIES. SUN NIGHT INTO MON...CAA BEHIND THE CLIPPER AGAIN WILL PUSH H8 TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR -10C...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT -SHSN FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW FLOW. AGAIN...RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HGTS AND MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LGT IF ANY ACCUMULATION. TUE THROUGH FRI...GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM TUE INTO WED. WHILE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AVBL...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING WITH THE SFC AND MID LVL TROF SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FROM LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH WARM AIR FROM LK MI FOR RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES EARLY WED WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC/H5 RDGING TAKES OVER. MDLS TREND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS...HAS BEEN TOWARD LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH COLDER AIR JUST BRUSHING THE WRN LAKES. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN FOR THU WITH POSSIBILITY OF CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING EVEN THROUGH H8 TEMPS FCST NEAR -8C WOULD ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS LOWER HGTS INTO THE GRT LAKES AND IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z/06Z GFS...12Z GFS SHOWS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED HGT RISES WITH STRONGER WAA FRI WARRANTING MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW. .MQT...NONE. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 435 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS TONIGHT AND -SN/LES POTENTIAL WITH CLIPPER SUN INTO MON. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED VORTEX OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A MID LVL TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE A REX BLOCK HAD SET UP OVER WRN NOAM. THIS LEFT THE WRN GRT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM NW FLOW. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO WAS LOCATED OVER NW ONTARIO WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS...PER IR LOOP. WEAK RDG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BACKING WINDS WITH LES BANDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND TAKING A MORE E-W ORIENTATION...PER VIS LOOP. KMQT 88D ALSO INDICATED WEAKENING REFLECTIVITIES WITH REMAINING -SHSN. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND INVERSION HGTS BLO 5K FT WORKING INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR...REPRESENTED BY 12Z KINL/CYQD SNDGS...HAS ALSO LIMITED LES DEVELOPMENT. IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA PREFERRED WITH MORE PROMINENT AND DEFINED SFC TROF MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WITH NEXT SYSTEM...AVN OR UKMET/CANADIAN LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH ETA A BIT TOO STRONG GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LVL SHRTWV...PER HPC DISC. TONIGHT INTO SAT...CONTINUED BACKING TREND WITH LOW LVL WINDS SHOULD PUSH LES BANDS MAINLY OFFSHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW SCRAPING THE SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. OTHERWISE...SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST. EXPECTED LES TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH ATTENDANT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FOLLOWED BY VEERING WINDS TO NW. WHILE THE AVN DEPICTS H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -10C WHICH WOULD WOULD GIVE LK-H8 DELTA/T TO AROUND 16C...LOWER INVERSION HGTS SUGGESTED BY THE ETA RESULT IN H8 TEMPS CLOSER TO -6C. COMBINATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE TO -10C AND LIMITED CBL DEPTH SHOULD LIMITE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY SAT. LONGER FETCH INTO ERN UPR MI MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSION HGTS AND MOISTENING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS ALSO KEPT AT 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. SAT NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LES SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AS WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME SRLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. SUN...WHILE ETA MOISTURE PRFL WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY PCPN...AVN 280-290K FCST COND PRES TO NEAR 10 MB LOOKS MORE PROMISING BUT MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW. SO...PCPN REDUCED TO MENTION OF FLURRIES. SUN NIGHT INTO MON...CAA BEHIND THE CLIPPER AGAIN WILL PUSH H8 TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR -10C...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT -SHSN FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW FLOW. AGAIN...RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HGTS AND MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LGT IF ANY ACCUMULATION. TUE THROUGH FRI...GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM TUE INTO WED. WHILE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AVBL...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING WITH THE SFC AND MID LVL TROF SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FROM LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH WARM AIR FROM LK MI FOR RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES EARLY WED WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC/H5 RDGING TAKES OVER. MDLS TREND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS...HAS BEEN TOWARD LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH COLDER AIR JUST BRUSHING THE WRN LAKES. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN FOR THU WITH POSSIBILITY OF CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING EVEN THROUGH H8 TEMPS FCST NEAR -8C WOULD ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS LOWER HGTS INTO THE GRT LAKES AND IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 00Z/06Z GFS...12Z GFS SHOWS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED HGT RISES WITH STRONGER WAA FRI WARRANTING MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1031 AM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ALL REMAINS THE SAME. STRONG VORT MAX AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REINFORCE LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ONTARIO. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND GEORGIAN BAY TO FURTHER ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE LAKE SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. *** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS *** WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE MECCA FOR MESOSCALE WEATHER...IS EXPERIENCING ITS FIRST REAL LAKE EFFECT EVENT OF THE SEASON. WHILE DELTA T'S ARE GREATER THAN 15...CLOUD LEVEL TEMPS ARE ONLY ARND -10C. AS A RESULT THE BULK OF THE PCPN AT THIS EARLY HOUR IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER COLD AIR EAST OF LK ONTARIO. SYNOPTICALLY...THE REGION REMAINS ENTRENCHED WITHIN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. A PERSISTANT VORTEX JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE SEASONABLY COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND AS A RESULT LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE VORTEX WILL FINALLY ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING NORTH AMERICA VIA THE MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT LIVED PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SUPPLY US WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE MESOSCALE LEVEL...MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO (BOTH AT +11C) WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABV 10K WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN THE VCNTY OF 750 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY...A 260 FLOW HAS A DISORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW STRETCHING FROM NEAR ERIE AND JHW NORTHEAST TO ABOUT ROC. BOTH ETA 12 AND RUC40 GUIDANCE AGREE ON SHIFTING THE AXIS OF THIS BAND OFF THE LAKE...THUS REDUCING PCPN AMOUNTS. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND A SHORTENED FETCH WITH WINDS VEERING TO 280 SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK...SO WILL PROBABLY DROP ADVISORY FOR SITES SOUTH OF BUF. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHIER LOOKING BAND OF MIXED PCPN OFF LK ONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN PARTS THE TUG HILL REGION. WET SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... BUT AGAIN MIXTURE HAS KEPT AMOUNTS BLO EXPECTATIONS. REGARDLESS... WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR EAST OF LK ONTARIO TODAY AS COLD AIR DEEPENS A BIT WITH BETTER UVV AND MORE CONDUCIVE MICROPHYSICS. THE REAL ACTION EAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A MULTI-LAKE PLUME OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL BETWEEN NIGHTFALL AND ABOUT MIDNIGHT OVER OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR AND GEORGIAN BAY PRIMING THE ACTIVITY. WOULD NOT BE SURPIRSED TO SEE AMOUNT SIN EXCESS OF A FOOT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. THE THREE COUNTIES MENTIONED WILL BE INCLUDED IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR TONIGHT. OFF LK ERIE...DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...BUT 290-310 FLOW WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE/EQUIL VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR CHAUTAUQUA CATT COUNTIES. APPRECIATE COORD W/ BGM. .BUF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TODAY NYZ007-008. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NYZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT NYZ004-005-019-020. RSH/WCH ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1008 AM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS FROM THAT AREA SHOWING DECENT SNOWFALL OCCURRING. AT THIS TYPING, COLD FRONT JUST NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATEST RUC SHOWING COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA, NOT INCLUDING THE TUG HILL, ARE STILL IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES THIS MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT LAKE BANDS TO MOVE TO A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. WILL MOSTLY LIKELY UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING BEFORE 1700 UTC. CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING LOOK IN LINE AT THIS TIME. RAM .BGM...LAKE SNOW ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY...NYZ009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT ...NYZ018-036-037. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 850 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 TEMPS IN THE CSTL PLAIN HAVE ACTUALLY JUMPED UP A LITTLE BIT OVR THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THINK THIS IS DUE TO BNDRY LAYER WINDS MIXING THE LOW LEVELS. FCST LOWS TNT MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COLD AND WILL BUMP THEM UP A LITTLE. WILL LEAVE CHC OF FROST IN FCST. FROST WILL LIKLEY BE SPOTTY TNT AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FROST WILL OCCUR TMRW NIGHT WITH CALMER WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS. PRES GRAD IS TIGHTNING ALONG THE OBX AND THIS WILL CONT THRU THE NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE SOUNDS AND OBX. MARINE: MSAS DEPICTS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS NOSING INTO OUR CWF AREA TONIGHT. AS HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION EXPECT STRONG CAA SURGE TO ENSUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MESOETA AND RUC SHOW STRONGEST CAA SURGE ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. IN LIGHT OF MODEL OUTPUT ALONG WITH SURROUNDING COASTAL/OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SCA FLAG (FROM SCEC) FOR SOUNDS. WILL BUMP UP WINDS 5 KTS ON LOW/HIGH END AND KEEP THEM GOING AS WE ROLL INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGEST SURGE/NW FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ALONG SOUNDS AND NORTHERN LEG WATERS. SOUTHERN CWF AREA WILL REMAIN IN SCEC CONDITIONS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS PUNCH BEHIND CAA PUSH. AS AFORMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH SLIDES EAST AND BUILDS OVER AREA DURING LATTER STAGES OF WEEKEND...WINDS/SEAS/SOUNDS TONE DOWN A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS P-GRAD RELAXES. VARIOUS WIND REPORTS ALONG THE OBX SHOW WINDS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE FROM THE NW. DSLN7 BUOY REPORTING WNW WINDS 22G24 KTS...CAPE LOOKOUT HAS NW WIND 14G17 KTS...FPSN7 WNW WINDS 18G20 KTS WITH 4 FOOT SEAS EVERY 10 SECONDS. EXTENDED:GFS/MRF/UKMET HAVE NEXT WEATHER AND OFFSHORE SEA-HEIGHT-MAKER COMING IN THE FORM OF A MILLER TYPE "A" LOW. THIS LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GULF STATES...THEN TRANSFERS POWER-OF-ATTORNEY TO DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. AFTER SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SC WATERS...FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY IN LOW CONFIDENCE MODE. AFTERALL...YESTERDAYS GFS/MRF MODEL RUN MADE NO MENTION OF A MILLER TYPE "A" LOW COMING TO FRUTION MUCH LESS A 969MB LOW BOMBING OFF CAPE COD NEXT THURSDAY MORNING AS LATEST RUNS ARE FORETELLING. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED SHOW SOME SORT OF CONSISTENCY BEFORE BUYING INTO POSSIBLE MID WEEK/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW EVENT. .MHX...SCA TONIGHT FOR SOUNDS INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS FROM S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OCRACOKE INLET. ...FROST ADVISORY ALL CWA EXCEPT OUTER BANKS... GC/JO nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 822 PM CST FRI NOV 1 2002 .TONIGHT... CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS POOL OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME DRYING NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. RUC AND 18Z MESOETA SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL OFF DESPITE CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL NEED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MOST ZONES INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR CEILINGS OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...WHICH HAVE BEEN SAGGING SOUTH THE PAST FEW HOURS. MESOETA AND RUC 1000-850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BRING THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY MORNING. .FGF...NONE. DONAVON nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 925 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 A FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MOST OF THE DECKS HAVE BEEN ALONG THE COAST WITH KCHS AND KNBC CURRENTLY REPORTING BKN CONDITIONS. AM NOT EXPECTING THESE DECKS TO STICK AROUND VERY LONG WITH LOWER RH VALUES ADVECTING IN FROM THE W AND NW. SFC PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY RISING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. HARD TO PICK OUT ANY COOL SURGE ON THE SFC OBS TO THE WEST AS MOST AREAS REPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. LATEST RUC HOWEVER STILL SHOWING SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST HAS A HANDLE ON THIS INCREASE AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE INLAND OR COASTAL ZONE FORECASTS. .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. PY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1010 AM EST FRI NOV 1 2002 SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PATCH OF LOW CLDS OVER FAR SW PORTION OF CWA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY. GENERALLY VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND PLAN TO CONTINUE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SFC DEWPTS IN THE 40S OVER N AREAS AND 50S OVER S AREAS. WINDS SHOULD BACK THIS AFTN TO MORE OF A NW DIRECTION WITH APPROACH OF WEAK REINFORCING BNDRY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. MARINE...NE WINDS ACROSS THE WTRS THIS MRNG XPCTD TO BACK TO THE N DURING THE AFTN. 12Z ETA-12 LOOKS TO BACK THE WINDS A BIT TOO FAST TO THE N AND GENERALLY PREFER THE 12Z RUC TIMING HWVR N WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE CURRENT MARINE PKG LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED. CHS 68 44 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 SAV 68 44 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 CHL 68 44 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 NBC 68 44 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 RBW 67 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 MHP 68 44 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 956 AM CST FRI NOV 1 2002 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW CUT OFF AT BASE OF WESTERN CANADIAN RIDGE. SOURCE REGION FOR LOW LEVEL AIR IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA WHICH HAS UNDERGONE HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE PAST FEW DAYS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING IN THIS REGION. SO WEAK NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY WILL BE ADVECTING IN WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA. RUC AND MESOETA SUGGESTING 25-30 KNOT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED THAT BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN SURFACE WINDS IN 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SO HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY IN UPDATED ZONES. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN SOUTHWEST AS IT NOW APPEARS LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE ZONES IN FINE SHAPE AND UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. .ABR...NONE. MARSILI sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 425 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2002 RATHER QUIET TODAY AS FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY BETWEEN TWO FLOW AREAS. BASED ON 00Z 9H TEMPS AND EXPECTED ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES... MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS UPPER 30S FROM LXL TO RPD. WINDS GENERALLY WEST...BEST GRADIENT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE EXITING REGION STILL HAS A FEW MID CLOUDS IN EC MN INTO WISC. MEANWHILE SYSTEM TO OUR SW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SW THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN COULD BRUSH SC MN WITH SOME CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE TO THE SW. NEITHER THE ETA NOR THE AVN HAVE DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THIS MORNINGS LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO MANITOBA. NGM PRETTY GOOD AS IS THE RUC. COULD BE A FEW BKN CLOUDS FROM JMR TO RPD FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. REST OF AREA WL BE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN SYSTEMS TO THE SW AND OUR NORTH. NEXT CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MORE LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NE HALF OF FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE LACKING ATTM SO HAVE NOT ADDED FLURRIES BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MRF AND UK MODELS HINT AT SOME MODEST WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK BUT ECMWF SHOWS A THERMAL RIBBON RIGHT OVER MN FRIDAY. .MSP...NONE TDK mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 215 AM CST SAT NOV 2 2002 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TODAY & AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. FIRST CONCERN IS THE MUCH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN QUESTION. LATEST RUC/MESOETA SOUNDING INFORMATION HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEFORE TURNING OVER THE LIGHT RAIN BY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. DO HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT BELIEVE THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN LIQUID FORM BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH THE LATEST LAPS/RUC DATA AS IT COMES IN... FOR FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...LATEST RUC/ETA INDICATES THAT MOISTURE FIELDS WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN UP BY 18Z...THEREFORE DEVELOPED THE LIGHT RAIN EARLIER FOR THIS AREA...WITH A GENERAL TREND OF THE RAIN SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS... TIME/CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATES THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY HOLD THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT BEST. ALSO THETA-E ADVECTION AND OMEGA FIELDS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...AND ANY FOCUS FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ON SUNDAY WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE LESSENS. THEREFORE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS. A GENERAL ONE TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. MOISTURE RETURN IS STILL IN QUESTION AND MAIN SURFACE/UPPER AIR SUPPORT REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE WEEK. FINAL GRIDS WILL BE SENT BY 315 AM. .SGF... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. JLT mo WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 946 AM EST SAT NOV 2 2002 12Z RAOB DATA DEPICTS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CAA NOTED AS WELL. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL ENSURE A VERY DELIGHTFUL DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. ONGOING ZONES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS...SO SEE NO REASON FOR ANY UPDATES. MARINE...CAA OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS ALONG WITH 3-4MB GRADIENT NOTED ON MSAS SFC ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTING SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. TRENDS FROM LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA SHOW THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE ONGOING CAA AND SEEING THAT ITS A WEEKEND WITH MORE BOATERS ON THE WATERS PREFER TO KEEP SCEC FLAGS FLYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVEN THOUGH WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOSER TO SHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. THANKS FOR COORD KMIA. .TBW...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. MCMICHAEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1120 AM EST SAT NOV 2 2002 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LES TRENDS ALONG WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM NW FLOW INTO THE GRT LAKES BTWN ERN NOAM TROF AND WRN CANADA AND PAC NW RDG. SHEARED SHRTWV EXTENDED FROM NE LK SUPERIOR TOWARD NRN LK HURON. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS WELL UPSTREAM OVER NW SASK. AT THE SFC...LO PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF EXTENDING TO THE WEST INTO SRN UPR MI. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER LK SUPERIOR WITH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -10C PRODUCING LK-H8 DELTA/T TO AROUND 16C WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY THE ERN HLF OF THE LAKE. 12Z KINL SNDG WITH A SHARP INVERSION NEAR 875 MB (4K FT) WAS MORE INDICATIVE OF THE AIRMASS INTO THE WRN LAKE AND HAS SUPPRESSED LES ACTIVITY WITH MAINLY JUST LAKE CLOUDS INTO WRN UPR MI. BLEND OF KAPX/CWPL AND ETA FCST SNDGS...MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS INTO THE ERN LAKE....WERE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES WITH INVERSION HGTS NEAR 6K FT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED COMBINED WITH THE LONGER FETCH HAS ALLOWED LES TO INCREASE WITH SOME RETURNS NEAR 30 DBZ JUST EAST OF KMQT (INTO MARQUETTE) AND NORTH OF PICTURED ROCKS. RADAR TRENDS AND WORKSTATION ETA SUGGEST THAT NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP LES FOCUSED INTO FAR ERN MQT COUNTY AND ALGER COUNTY. HOWEVER...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CBL DEPTH ALONG WITH SHIFTING BAND POSITION SHOULD LIMIT ANY LCL ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH. LAKE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER SRN UPR MI WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION. WHILE DRYING TREND CONSISTENT WITH EXPANDING CLEAR AREA OVER WRN LAKE MAY BRING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN. TEMP FCST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS NEEDED. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 930 AM CST SAT NOV 2 2002 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A STRATUS DECK DRIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF MN CWFA. SOME EROSION IS BEING SEEN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LS. HOWEVER...BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RIDING INTO THE FA AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN. LATEST RUC KEEPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. SFC TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS AND FORECAST VALUES AND WILL BUMP THEM UP WHERE NEEDED. .DLH...NONE. $$ GSF mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1020 AM EST SAT NOV 2 2002 SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO. RADARS SHOWING LAKE BANDS MOVING MORE TO THE EAST, AND RETURNS ARE WEAKENING. THIS FITS WITH MODELS TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS IN FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND TWEAK SNOW AMOUNTS A TAD. RAM ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW STRECHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BGM AREA AND INTO OUR SE NY COUNTIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO PULL NORTH AGAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING...THROUGH THE SYR/UCA AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AROUND MID-MORNING. THE BAND IS THEN PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA AROUND NOON TODAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE AVN HAS THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW IS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ETA IS SIMIALAR BUT A TAD WEAKER WITH THE LOW. THEN WE DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. THE BAND IS PROGGED TO AGAIN SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING...SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...THEN QUICKLY TO THE SYR/UCA CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN FINALLY TO A MULTI-BAND SCENERIO ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 6 AM. THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LES ACCUMULATION. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THE BAND IS TRANSITIONING AND DOES NOT REMAIN ALONG ANY ONE PATH FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. ALSO, THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY LIGHT, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AND, WITH A PERIOD OF MULTI-BAND LES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, USUALLY NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENERIO. WITH ALL THE ABOVE IN MIND...AND ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY LES ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SUNDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AND RATHER QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE...SYR/UCA AROUND 6 AM...NORTHERN ONEIDA AROUND 8 AM...THEN OUT OF OUR CWA. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE MULTI-BANDS SHIFT NORTH. OTHERWISE, WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING, EXPECT THAT THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING BEFORE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP WITH APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD COME AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS, AND LAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. JML .BGM...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 933 AM EST SAT NOV 2 2002 ZFP: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH SEEN IN THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. REGION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD FREE WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60. WORKSTATION ETA SHOWING NORTH WINDS CONTINUING BUT DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AROUND 18Z. THIS AGREES TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE RUC. SO WILL UPDATE TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES INLAND TO AROUND 60 AND WILL TWEAK THE WINDS DOWN A BIT. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. CWF: WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO DUE N...ALLOWING FOR SOME RESPONSE IN THE SEAS AT FPSN7. LAST OBS FOR SEAS SHOWED A FRISKY 5 FT EVERY 5 SEC...BUT THAT WAS 12Z. IN OFFSHORE FLOW...NOT TO MENTION ABSENCE OF MORE RECENT OB...WILL JUST INITIALIZE WITH A SOLID 4 FT W/IN 20 NM AND ADD WORDING FOR LOWER SEAS NEAR SHORE. CURRENT SURGE IN WINDS APPEARS SHORT LIVED AND WILL BACK NW AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND KNOCK DOWN SEAS ACCORDINGLY...NOT A REAL CHANGE FROM GOING CWF. WILL NOT MESS WITH THE OUT PERIODS AT THIS TIME. FCSTID = 07 PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: KILM 60 35 60 43 / 00 00 00 30 KLBT 59 31 58 41 / 00 00 00 30 KFLO 61 33 60 42 / 00 00 00 30 KMYR 60 40 61 43 / 00 00 00 30 .ILM... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. PUBLIC: HAWKINS MARINE: RAS nc SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 200 PM MST SAT NOV 2 2002 FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY CENTRAL MTNS...AND WINDS FOR MTN AREAS IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM... CURRENTLY...CLOSED LOW ACROSS WRN WY/ERN ID EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE ACROSS STATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING ONGOING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA WHERE INSTABILITIES ALONG EDGE LEADING EDGE OF 500 MB COLD POOL HAVE BEEN INCREASING. MEANWHILE...STRATUS HAS BROKEN OUT ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF RATON RIDGE AND ALONG THE PALMER DVD...WHILE STILL HOLDING IN ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. SFC TEMPS AT KTAD JUMPED TO 61 DEGREES ONCE DOWNSLOPE KICKED IN...SO COLD AIRMASS IS FAIRLY SHALLOW. FOR TONIGHT...AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN CO...A BRIEF SHOT OF DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY BUT BRIEF SNOWS ACROSS THE SAWATCH/SOUTHERN MOSQUITO RANGES THIS EVENING. MODELS DIFFER IN DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS AREA WITH 12Z MESO-ETA THE MOISTEST...AND RUC/AVN SHOWING STRONG DRYING AT 500 MB MOVING IN BY MIDNIGHT. JUDGING BY WV PICS/UPSTREAM RAOBS...TEND TO FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. EVEN WITH ETA SOLUTION...RUN OF SNOW MODEL YIELDED AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR CEN MTN AREAS...STILL BELOW ADVSY CRITERIA AS OROGRAPHICS NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE. WILD CARD IS INSTABILITY THOUGH...AS QUICK ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR UNDER TSN. HOWEVER..THIS SHUD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WX ADVSYS. AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SE PLAINS WILL SEE ANOTHER FROPA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...AND ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS. MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...SO AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS FOR THE WETS/SRN SANGRES...ESP AS UPSLOPE COMPONENT NOT ALL THAT GREAT. OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE MTN TOP WINDS. MESO-ETA INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS ACROSS MTN AREAS...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM...EXPECT SOME NR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER MTN RAWS SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MTN TOP INVERSION ISN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. MM5 DOES DEVELOP A WEAK INVERSION TOWARDS 12Z WITH SOME 50 KT WINDS DOWN TO 600 MB (HOWEVER IT IS USUALLY A BIT TO STRONG WITH WINDS). OVERALL...WILL BEEF UP WINDS OVER MTNS TONIGHT... BUT THINK THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG SRN SECTIONS OF CWA...MAINLY HIGHER PEAKS WEST OF KTAD/WALSENBURG. ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY...AND TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME AS STRATUS BREAKS BY AFTN...AND BREEZY NRLY WINDS HELP MIX OUT LOWER TROP. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS STILL EXITING AREA... HOWEVER MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIGHT. TEMPS IN GRIDS LOOK FAIRLY CLOSE...AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING WEST COAST TROUGH INTO SRN AZ...AS NRN STREAM TROF MOVES INTO NRN US ROCKIES. FCST AREA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS VERY DRY...AND WITH PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY SUN NIGHT...THINK TEMPS COULD GET QUITE COLD...ESP IN SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND THE COLD POCKETS LIKE KPUB AND KLAA. HAVE TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS IN GRIDS. UPPER TROUGH PASSES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW CO MON AFTN. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THESE SYSTEMS. ETA/MESO-ETA CONFINE MOISTURE TO MID AND HIGH LEVELS...WHILE AVN IS MUCH MOISTER. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AVN IS PROBABLY OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AS TENDS TO BE ITS BIAS. GRIDS HAVE 20 POPS FOR MTN AREAS AND SRN BORDER AREAS FOR MONDAY...AND WITH UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODELS AM RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS OUT JUST YET. WILL GIVE IT ONE MORE MODEL RUN. APPEARS SRN SECTIONS MAY HAVE BEST/YET LOW/ POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER FCST AREA TUES AND WED WITH A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME BOTH DAYS. GFS SHIFTS UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA FOR THURSDAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS FCST AREA. THEN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL PATTERN WITH NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT. WILL OPT TO KEEP DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW BUT A LITTLE COOLER. KT .PUB...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 249 PM EST SAT NOV 2 2002 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT BRISK WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COLD SIDE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW CROSSES THE STATE. .DISCUSSION... 200PM SURFACE CHART SHOWS 993MB LOW JUST ENTERING THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. SAT IMG IN COMBINATION WITH RADAR INDICATES THAT WRAP AROUND THIS LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE GASPESIE PENINSULA INTO EAST CENTRAL MAINE. THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW HAS JUST MOVED SOUTH OF CARIBOU. RUC MODEL SLOWLY MOVES GULF LOW EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH IT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EASTERN MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THIS LOW MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WILL LEAVE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. WILL WAIT TO ISSUANCE TIME TO DECIDE ON HOW HARD TO HIT THE SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER TEMPERATURES DROP TO RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT. CAR RECORD IS 16F...HUL IS 12F...AND BGR IS 19F. FWC/MAV NUMBERS ARE BELOW THESE RECORDS WITH THE ETA JUST ABOVE THE RECORDS. IF WINDS REMAIN UP AND IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS IT MAY BE TOUGH TO MAKE IT AS LOW AS FWC/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ON THE OTHER HAND FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL OVER NORTHERN SECTION. HOWEVER...FEEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MAINE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE RECORDS AND ABOVE THE MAV/FWC GUIDANCE. WITH THAT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA NUMBERS AND GO WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE RECORDS. HOWEVER ANYWAY YOU LOOK AT IT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. SUNDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH NOT COMPLETELY THROUGH YET...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FLURRY AROUND NOONTIME. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE BY AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT WILL PROBABLY GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO COVER THE DAY OVER NORTHERN MAINE. DOWNGLIDE WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST SECTIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEARS SKIES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD EARLY MONDAY AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXTENDED... USE THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE MRF FOR PARTICULARS FOR THE EXTENDED. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTED TO BE QUITE WEAK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE SO EXPECT JUST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE BUT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS POLAR VORTEX REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. ON WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH BUT THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER VERY STRONG FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH AND A MIX FOR DOWNEAST. IF THE MEDIUM MODELS ARE RIGHT...AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES THE POLAR VORTEX FINALLY LIFTS BACK ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AS A BROAD RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE WARM AIR RETURNS OVER THE STATE...EXCEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE START OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WEEKEND. COASTAL WATERS...WITH TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP GALE UP THIS EVENING. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. .CAR...GALE. FOSTER me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 331 PM EST SAT NOV 2 2002 SATELLITE IMAGES AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TYPING. SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AREA RADARS SHOWING NORTHERN LAKE BAND BECOMING MOVE WEST TO EAST, AND ERIE BAND CONTINUING TO SEND PATCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. UPPER BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT PRECIPITATION "MAKER" COMING INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ENOUGH SO THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS UNTIL ENDING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH, THAN WEDENSDAY'S TROUGH, MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SO, CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR EACH DAY. RAM .BGM...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1047 AM CST SAT NOV 2 2002 ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 16Z SHOWING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MID CLOUD BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RUC INDICATING 925 HPA WINDS ONLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT SNOW COVER HAS DISSIPATED TO LARGE DEGREE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA WITH JUST FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SISSETON HILLS REGION HANGING ON TO ANY SNOW COVER. BEST SNOW COVER STILL WEST OF MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS MORNING IN KPIR SHOWING A BIT SHARPER OF DIURNAL RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURE. WILL JUST INCREASE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST. .ABR...NONE NDM sd