AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 230 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY) MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH STRONG GRADIENT AND NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS EAST. TONIGHT...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO DIMINISH...BECOMING WEAK WESTERLY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN COLORADO. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WELL...BECOMING LIGHT UPSLOPE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE PLAINS MAINLY IN THE 40S...UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE MTS AND HIGH MT VALLEYS. WITH EXPECTED LOWS IN THE 30S AND DEW PTS IN MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME FROST IN THE HEART OF THE VALLEY. DONT BELIEVE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...WITH DRAINAGE WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP ADJACENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY. TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO BETWEEN +8C AND +14C ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL AVERAGES. BREEZY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FELT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AROUND 9C/KM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CU BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...AND WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN TACT. -MW .LONG TERM... (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP GOING FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU...AS BOTH ETA AND GFS BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHILE S-SE SURFACE WINDS ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. ALSO APPEARS THERE IS A WEAK 250 MB JET STREAK WHICH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WHICH WOULD HELP CREATE AT LEAST SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM WITH 700 MB TEMPS +12C TO +14C...THUS NUDGED UP MAX TEMP GRIDS SLIGHTLY. WEAK UPSLOPE SURGE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING JET MAX SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE EAST...SO BROADBRUSH OF LOW POPS THROUGH THU EVENING LOOKS FINE. RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SHUNTING LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS INTO KS...WITH PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE OVER CO. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FRI-SUN SLIGHTLY... OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES MADE. --PETERSEN && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 830 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER THE SERN STATES. A LARGE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING FROM UPPER MIDWEST TO RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. MUCH QUIETER IN OUR CWFA, WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. DUE TO A LIGHT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW, THE GULF SEA BREEZE PENETRATED AS FAR INLAND AS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOWS FROM THE FL STORMS TRIGGER SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS IN SRN GA DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING, WITH ONLY A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS LINGERING NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS RANGED FROM 90 AT ABY TO A RAIN-COOLED 75 AT MAI. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE...WILL AMEND THE ZONE FORECAST ONCE CONVECTION DISSIPATES, MOST LIKELY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. && .MARINE UPDATE...WIND DIRECTION VARIES FROM W-SW NEAR SHORE TO E-SE WELL OFFSHORE. SPEEDS ARE AROUND 5 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET. BOTH THE ETA AND RUC SHOW WINDS BECOMING NELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS THE WIND SHIFT, AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR COSMETIC TWEAKS. && .AVIATION...SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. NEAR CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAINS WILL DEVELOP PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND SW/SCNTRL GA. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...JAMSKI AVIATION/RADAR...BLOCK/SHAFER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 705 PM EST MON JUN 13 2005 .AVIATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A FEW RENEGADE THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. TIMED THUNDER INTO TAFS AS WELL AS COULD AT THIS POINT. PER OBS UNDER LINE OF STORMS...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH STORMS. && .PREV FORECAST... SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE RUC40/NAM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN DEPICTED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED FROM CNTRL WISCONSIN...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. RUC40 AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A SFC TROF. ALSO...A WEAK S/WV ALOFT WAS LOCATED ABOVE THE SFC FEATURE. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS COMBINED WITH THESE LIFTING MECHANISMS...AND THUS HAVE RESULTED IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RUC40 FCSTS THE SFC TROF AND UPR LVL S/WV TO BE ALONG A SWRN MICHIGAN TO EXTREME NW OHIO AXIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. AT THIS POINT...HAVE PENCILED IN 20 POPS IN THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION TO SEE IF THIS HAS TO BE RAISED. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A POTENT UPR LVL LOW CENTERED OVER NE NEBRASKA LIFTS NE INTO SE MINNESOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND IT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PASSES ACRS ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A MODERATELY STRONG MID TO UPR LVL JET AROUND 90 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS S/WV ENERGY. THESE WX ELEMENTS WILL PROVIDE THE UPR DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LVLS...AN INCREASING LOW LVL JET WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. THE RESULT OF THE UPR DIV/LOW LVL CONV COUPLET WILL BE AN OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS ACRS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE ENE TOWARD AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER INDIANA...THEY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE DUE TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE ACRS THE FCST AREA. HENCE...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL PLACE SEVERE WX WORDING IN THE ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY DAY BREAK TUESDAY. THUS...AM ONLY EXPECTING PERHAPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING HOURS (30 POP). AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. THE NAM FCSTS THIS FRONT TO BE NEAR THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER BY 18Z...AND JUST EAST OF THE CWFA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCD S/WV WITH THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHC WILL OCCUR ACRS THE EAST WITH THE LEAST IN THE WEST. WILL LAYER POPS FROM 50 EAST TO 30 WEST. SOME SEVERE WX IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPS...MET VALUES FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD...SO HAVE USED IT. USED THE NAM THICKNESS VALUES AT 21Z TUESDAY TO COME UP WITH A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACRS THE FCST AREA. THIS METHOD YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM LIKE A PINWHEEL. THIS MAY PRODUCE ADDITNL SHRA/TSRA'S TUE NIGHT AFTR CLD FNT PASSES. THE LAST OF SHWV'S W/ THIS SYS EFFECTING THE CWA WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON WED...REINTRODUCED POPS DURING THE DAY. MODELS STILL NOT GRASPING THE LONGER RANGE WELL. GFS DEPICTS A 500 MB LOW WAY TO FAR SOUTH AND WEST MID-LATE WEEK. NAM SHOWS TRIPLE POINT DVLPG BY 84 HRS OVER NEW ENGLD. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE WITH A JET MAX PUSHING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THU NIGHT...BUT NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ON H50 LOW DVLPG FURTHER TO THE NW OVER SE ONTARIO. I CAN NOT SEE A CLOSED H50 LOW DVLP FURTHER SW OVER N OH WITH 100+KT JET MAX MOVG OVER CENTRL OH VLY AT 90HR AS 12Z GFS RUN FCSTS. WITH 85H AND 70H LOW OVER ALBANY AS GFS DEPICTS...A FURTHER NORTH SOLN MAKES MORE SENSE. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL NOT TREND COOLER LATE WEEK AS MAV AND MEX/MEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. VERY STRONG RIDGE WILL HOLD AND BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO S CTRL CANADA AS TROF DEEPENS OUT IN THE W PAC. WV CURNTLY SHOWS STRONG UPR JET STARTING TO DIG S-WARD NEAR ALEUTIAN ISL'S. THIS SETUP WILL LEAVE US HIGH AND DRY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVR CENTRAL CONUS...IGNORED GFS THINKING OF CLOSED LOW FORMING IN SE US. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...EDDY SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...WAMSLEY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 230 PM EST MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE RUC40/NAM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN DEPICTED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED FROM CNTRL WISCONSIN...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. RUC40 AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A SFC TROF. ALSO...A WEAK S/WV ALOFT WAS LOCATED ABOVE THE SFC FEATURE. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS COMBINED WITH THESE LIFTING MECHANISMS...AND THUS HAVE RESULTED IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RUC40 FCSTS THE SFC TROF AND UPR LVL S/WV TO BE ALONG A SWRN MICHIGAN TO EXTREME NW OHIO AXIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. AT THIS POINT...HAVE PENCILED IN 20 POPS IN THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION TO SEE IF THIS HAS TO BE RAISED. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A POTENT UPR LVL LOW CENTERED OVER NE NEBRASKA LIFTS NE INTO SE MINNESOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND IT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PASSES ACRS ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A MODERATELY STRONG MID TO UPR LVL JET AROUND 90 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS S/WV ENERGY. THESE WX ELEMENTS WILL PROVIDE THE UPR DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LVLS...AN INCREASING LOW LVL JET WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. THE RESULT OF THE UPR DIV/LOW LVL CONV COUPLET WILL BE AN OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS ACRS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE ENE TOWARD AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER INDIANA...THEY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE DUE TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE ACRS THE FCST AREA. HENCE...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL PLACE SEVERE WX WORDING IN THE ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY DAY BREAK TUESDAY. THUS...AM ONLY EXPECTING PERHAPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING HOURS (30 POP). AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. THE NAM FCSTS THIS FRONT TO BE NEAR THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER BY 18Z...AND JUST EAST OF THE CWFA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCD S/WV WITH THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHC WILL OCCUR ACRS THE EAST WITH THE LEAST IN THE WEST. WILL LAYER POPS FROM 50 EAST TO 30 WEST. SOME SEVERE WX IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPS...MET VALUES FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD...SO HAVE USED IT. USED THE NAM THICKNESS VALUES AT 21Z TUESDAY TO COME UP WITH A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACRS THE FCST AREA. THIS METHOD YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST. && .LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM LIKE A PINWHEEL. THIS MAY PRODUCE ADDITNL SHRA/TSRA'S TUE NIGHT AFTR CLD FNT PASSES. THE LAST OF SHWV'S W/ THIS SYS EFFECTING THE CWA WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON WED...REINTRODUCED POPS DURING THE DAY. MODELS STILL NOT GRASPING THE LONGER RANGE WELL. GFS DEPICTS A 500 MB LOW WAY TO FAR SOUTH AND WEST MID-LATE WEEK. NAM SHOWS TRIPLE POINT DVLPG BY 84 HRS OVER NEW ENGLD. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE WITH A JET MAX PUSHING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THU NIGHT...BUT NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ON H50 LOW DVLPG FURTHER TO THE NW OVER SE ONTARIO. I CAN NOT SEE A CLOSED H50 LOW DVLP FURTHER SW OVER N OH WITH 100+KT JET MAX MOVG OVER CENTRL OH VLY AT 90HR AS 12Z GFS RUN FCSTS. WITH 85H AND 70H LOW OVER ALBANY AS GFS DEPICTS...A FURTHER NORTH SOLN MAKES MORE SENSE. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL NOT TREND COOLER LATE WEEK AS MAV AND MEX/MEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. VERY STRONG RIDGE WILL HOLD AND BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO S CTRL CANADA AS TROF DEEPENS OUT IN THE W PAC. WV CURNTLY SHOWS STRONG UPR JET STARTING TO DIG S-WARD NEAR ALEUTIAN ISL'S. THIS SETUP WILL LEAVE US HIGH AND DRY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVR CENTRAL CONUS...IGNORED GFS THINKING OF CLOSED LOW FORMING IN SE US. && .AVIATION... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN WAS SHOWING THAT THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA WERE FINALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CUMULUS DECK. AM EXPECTING BY TAF ISSUANCE THAT KSBN AND KFWA SHOULD BE ABOVE THE MVFR 3000 FT THRESHOLD. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST RUC40 DEPICTED A WEAK SFC TROF AXIS FROM SWRN WISCONSIN INTO NRN ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH A WEAK S/WV ALOFT...WAS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. RUC40 SLIDES THIS WEAK TROF AND UPR LVL S/WV NE INTO WRN INDIANA BY 21Z. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...SO SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SFC TO 850 MB LOW LVL JET OVER WISCONSIN AND NRN/CNTRL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THE RESULT WILL BE SUPERCELLS ACRS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE ENE...THEY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AS HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER INDIANA. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO TSRA AT THIS POINT AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN SVR WEATHER THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE NOT SPECIFICALLY PLACED STRONG WINDS IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT AS IT IS STILL TOO PREMATURE...BUT LATER FCSTS WILL HAVE TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE AND ITS ASSOCD WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THEREAFTER...FCST AREA SHOULD FIND ITSELF IN A LULL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE CWFA THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT AFTER 18Z. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...WAMSLEY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1220 PM EST MON JUN 13 2005 .AVIATION... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN WAS SHOWING THAT THE PESKY LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA WERE FINALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CUMULUS DECK. AM EXPECTING BY TAF ISSUANCE THAT KSBN AND KFWA SHOULD BE ABOVE THE MVFR 3000 FT THRESHOLD. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST RUC40 DEPICTED A WEAK SFC TROF AXIS FROM SWRN WISCONSIN INTO NRN ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH A WEAK S/WV ALOFT...WAS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. RUC40 SLIDES THIS WEAK TROF AND UPR LVL S/WV NE INTO WRN INDIANA BY 21Z. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...SO SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING SFC TO 850 MB LOW LVL JET OVER WISCONSIN AND NRN/CNTRL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THE RESULT WILL BE SUPERCELLS ACRS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE ENE...THEY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AS HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER INDIANA. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO TSRA AT THIS POINT AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN SVR WEATHER THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE NOT SPECIFICALLY PLACED STRONG WINDS IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT AS IT IS STILL TOO PREMATURE...BUT LATER FCSTS WILL HAVE TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE AND ITS ASSOCD WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THEREAFTER...FCST AREA SHOULD FIND ITSELF IN A LULL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER AROUND 18Z TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE CWFA THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT AFTER 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... UPDATE... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE HAS PASSED TO THE NE OF THE CWFA...THEREFORE...THE RAIN HAS ENDED. RUC40 AND LATEST 12Z NAM SHOW A WEAK S/WV RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK S/WV WILL EJECT NE OUT OF ILLINOIS THIS AFTN...AND WILL TRY TO PUSH THE S/WV RIDGE EAST. RUC40 SOUNDINGS ACRS THE WRN CWFA INDICATE A POSSIBLE WEAK CAP...WHILE THE ERN CWFA SHOULD STAY CAPPED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WRN CWFA DUE TO THE APCHING WEAK S/WV. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS S/WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPR LOW OVER NEBRASKA EJECTS NE TOWARD ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LVL JET...SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT OVER ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS...AND MAY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE MOVE INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT. WILL PERUSE ALL LATEST MODEL DATA FOR THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WX OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM... THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WERE LINGERING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING NORTH BUT THE DEFORMATION ZONE STILL HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER NW INDIANA AND FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE ORIENTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WAS HELPING TO GENERATE STORMS UPSTREAM OVER MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TRIGGER STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME HEATING OF TROPICAL AIRMASS TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. 850/300MB THICKNESS SUGGEST A MOVEMENT MORE TO THE NORTH...KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT SOME PROPAGATION TO THE EAST AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS WARMS TODAY WITH 21Z SURFACE THETA-E UP TO 354K ACCORDING TO RUC13. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT...BUT PLACED CHANCE OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.- LONG TERM... GUIDANCE SIMILAR W/HANDLING OF INTENSE UPR TROF ACRS WRN NE THIS AM AND ITS EWD EJECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES TUE AFTN. FCST DIFFICULTY CONSIDERABLE AND LIES W/EWD TRANSLATION OF STG SFC BNDRY AND WHERE/WHEN CONV INITIATION OCCURS. ATTM LTL DEFINITIVE SIGNAL IN ANY MODEL TO PINPOINT EXACTLY BUT FAVORED AREA AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE TWD THE NOON HOUR ALG A SOUTH BEND-MONTICELLO LINE W/RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING EAST OF THERE AS INTENSE MID LVL DRY SLOT OVERRUNS MST AND SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZED BNDRY LYR BY THEN. BIG CAVEAT AND CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT LT DAY1 CONV EVOLUTION DOES NOT CONTAMINATE WARM SECTOR. WITH THAT IN MIND...PRESENCE OF STG MID LVL SPEED MAX AT BASE OF UPR TROF AND SIG DEEP LYR SHEAR AGAIN VRY FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED SVR THREAT ESP EAST HALF. AFT THAT...MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS DISCONTINUOUS W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF AND POTENTIAL PHASING W/UPR LOW OVR JAMES BAY BUT SOME FORM OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVR NEW ENGLAND IS LIKELY BUT LOOKS TO OCCUR FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW MID WEEK COOLDOWN TO MODERATE LATE WEEK AND NXT WEEKEND AS FIERCE MID LVL RIDGING DVLPS THROUGH THE CNTRL US IN TANDEM W/RENEWED DEEP WRN TROF DVLPMNT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKIP LONG TERM...TODD HOLSTEN UPDATE/AVIATION...HICKMAN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 955 AM EST MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE HAS PASSED TO THE NE OF THE CWFA...THEREFORE...THE RAIN HAS ENDED. RUC40 AND LATEST 12Z NAM SHOW A WEAK S/WV RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO LATE THIS AFTN. A WEAK S/WV WILL EJECT NE OUT OF ILLINOIS THIS AFTN...AND WILL TRY TO PUSH THE S/WV RIDGE EAST. RUC40 SOUNDINGS ACRS THE WRN CWFA INDICATE A POSSIBLE WEAK CAP...WHILE THE ERN CWFA SHOULD STAY CAPPED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WRN CWFA DUE TO THE APCHING WEAK S/WV. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS S/WV ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPR LOW OVER NEBRASKA EJECTS NE TOWARD ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LVL JET...SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT OVER ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS...AND MAY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE MOVE INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT. WILL PERUSE ALL LATEST MODEL DATA FOR THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WX OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... AVIATION... AN AREA OF RAIN WAS MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF SBN AND FWA AT 11Z... HOWEVER... SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CIGS PERSISTED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS WINDS BECOME WEST AND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS SOME WEATHER DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA. SHORT TERM... THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WERE LINGERING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING NORTH BUT THE DEFORMATION ZONE STILL HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER NW INDIANA AND FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE ORIENTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WAS HELPING TO GENERATE STORMS UPSTREAM OVER MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TRIGGER STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME HEATING OF TROPICAL AIRMASS TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. 850/300MB THICKNESS SUGGEST A MOVEMENT MORE TO THE NORTH...KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT SOME PROPAGATION TO THE EAST AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS WARMS TODAY WITH 21Z SURFACE THETA-E UP TO 354K ACCORDING TO RUC13. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT...BUT PLACED CHANCE OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.- LONG TERM... GUIDANCE SIMILAR W/HANDLING OF INTENSE UPR TROF ACRS WRN NE THIS AM AND ITS EWD EJECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES TUE AFTN. FCST DIFFICULTY CONSIDERABLE AND LIES W/EWD TRANSLATION OF STG SFC BNDRY AND WHERE/WHEN CONV INITIATION OCCURS. ATTM LTL DEFINITIVE SIGNAL IN ANY MODEL TO PINPOINT EXACTLY BUT FAVORED AREA AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE TWD THE NOON HOUR ALG A SOUTH BEND-MONTICELLO LINE W/RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING EAST OF THERE AS INTENSE MID LVL DRY SLOT OVERRUNS MST AND SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZED BNDRY LYR BY THEN. BIG CAVEAT AND CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT LT DAY1 CONV EVOLUTION DOES NOT CONTAMINATE WARM SECTOR. WITH THAT IN MIND...PRESENCE OF STG MID LVL SPEED MAX AT BASE OF UPR TROF AND SIG DEEP LYR SHEAR AGAIN VRY FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED SVR THREAT ESP EAST HALF. AFT THAT...MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS DISCONTINUOUS W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF AND POTENTIAL PHASING W/UPR LOW OVR JAMES BAY BUT SOME FORM OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVR NEW ENGLAND IS LIKELY BUT LOOKS TO OCCUR FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW MID WEEK COOLDOWN TO MODERATE LATE WEEK AND NXT WEEKEND AS FIERCE MID LVL RIDGING DVLPS THROUGH THE CNTRL US IN TANDEM W/RENEWED DEEP WRN TROF DVLPMNT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...SKIP LONG TERM...TODD HOLSTEN UPDATE...HICKMAN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 558 AM EST MON JUN 13 2005 .AVIATION... AN AREA OF RAIN WAS MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF SBN AND FWA AT 11Z... HOWEVER... SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CIGS PERSISTED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS WINDS BECOME WEST AND AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS SOME WEATHER DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM... THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WERE LINGERING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING NORTH BUT THE DEFORMATION ZONE STILL HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER NW INDIANA AND FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE ORIENTED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WAS HELPING TO GENERATE STORMS UPSTREAM OVER MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TRIGGER STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME HEATING OF TROPICAL AIRMASS TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. 850/300MB THICKNESS SUGGEST A MOVEMENT MORE TO THE NORTH...KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT SOME PROPAGATION TO THE EAST AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS WARMS TODAY WITH 21Z SURFACE THETA-E UP TO 354K ACCORDING TO RUC13. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT...BUT PLACED CHANCE OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.- && .LONG TERM... GUIDANCE SIMILAR W/HANDLING OF INTENSE UPR TROF ACRS WRN NE THIS AM AND ITS EWD EJECTION INTO THE WRN LAKES TUE AFTN. FCST DIFFICULTY CONSIDERABLE AND LIES W/EWD TRANSLATION OF STG SFC BNDRY AND WHERE/WHEN CONV INITIATION OCCURS. ATTM LTL DEFINITIVE SIGNAL IN ANY MODEL TO PINPOINT EXACTLY BUT FAVORED AREA AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE TWD THE NOON HOUR ALG A SOUTH BEND-MONTICELLO LINE W/RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING EAST OF THERE AS INTENSE MID LVL DRY SLOT OVERRUNS MST AND SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZED BNDRY LYR BY THEN. BIG CAVEAT AND CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT LT DAY1 CONV EVOLUTION DOES NOT CONTAMINATE WARM SECTOR. WITH THAT IN MIND...PRESENCE OF STG MID LVL SPEED MAX AT BASE OF UPR TROF AND SIG DEEP LYR SHEAR AGAIN VRY FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED SVR THREAT ESP EAST HALF. AFT THAT...MED RANGE GUIDANCE SIGNALS DISCONTINUOUS W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF AND POTENTIAL PHASING W/UPR LOW OVR JAMES BAY BUT SOME FORM OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCK OVR NEW ENGLAND IS LIKELY BUT LOOKS TO OCCUR FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW MID WEEK COOLDOWN TO MODERATE LATE WEEK AND NXT WEEKEND AS FIERCE MID LVL RIDGING DVLPS THROUGH THE CNTRL US IN TANDEM W/RENEWED DEEP WRN TROF DVLPMNT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ SKIP/TH in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 953 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH SERVED AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE EAST WITH ITS AXIS FORECAST TO NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 03Z BY THE 01Z RUC AND 18Z NAM. WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAST WEAK ECHOES EXITING EASTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY MD AND MOVING ACROSS THE BAY AT 0145Z. WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 70 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA AT 01Z AND PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING FROM THE WEST...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING. ZONES HAVE PATCHY FOG AND LOOK ON TRACK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL REMOVE EVENING WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONE PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES PLANNED. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...351 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EAST COAST...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHILE A 50-70KT JET STRETCHES FROM THE GULF STATES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE MIDWEST EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A TROPICAL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES (ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT) IS EVIDENT ON NATIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR. EXPECTING THIS LINEAR FEATURE TO CONTAIN NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ANALYSIS OF 12Z KIAD SOUNDING AND MORNING ACARS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES A LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE). WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM MOTIONS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. IN ADDITION...WITH -5C LEVELS NEAR 18KFT...WILL HAVE A VERY DEEP LAYER OF WARM RAIN PROCESS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES. STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE. STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ON THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...WHILE INITIATION HAS NOT OCCURRED ON THE BAY BREEZE AS OF YET. MAY CONTEND WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AS WINDS GENTLY ACCELERATE ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH DECOUPLING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL NEAR THE DEWPOINTS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED...WITH DRYING ATOP THE MIX LAYER DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY PREVENTING A DENSE FOG. MOS DEWPOINTS TOMORROW MAY BE TOO HIGH DUE TO THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS IF DRYING DOES OCCUR. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS MOS NUMBERS ALL ARE ABOVE OUR CRITERIA. HAVE FORECAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS HEIGHTS FALL TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING AFFECTS...CELLS MAY BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... TUESDAY NGT WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHANCE FOR ANY REMAINING DIURNAL CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE GOING INTO A TRANSITIONING PERIOD WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AS A STRONG CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRES DVLPS IN THE ERN GRT LKS AND APPROACHES OUR REGION. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR AFTN CONVECTION. MEANWHILE WSW FLOW AT 850 MB INCREASES TO 25-30 KT. AT THIS TIME MAV/MET POPS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...20 OR BELOW IN THE EAST BUT NOTABLY HIGHER TO THE WEST SUCH AS MRB HGR CHO ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM MOS. THUS...WILL HOLD POPS AT ONLY ISLD IN THE EAST AND BUMP UP TO 40S IN THE WEST. AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO DECREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THAT MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE CHANGING FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BTWN VARIOUS MOS AND MODELS...NAM AND NGMMOS ARE THE WARMEST...SIMILAR TO TUES TEMPS...WHILE GFSMOS IN MUCH COOLER. AT ANY RATE WITH DEWPOINTS GOING DOWN DO NOT THINK WE WILL BE HAVING HEAT PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN TERMS OF THE HEAT INDEX. ON THURSDAY COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADED INTO OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN MIDDLE ROAD CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. FOR THE PERIOD FRI-MON A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE EASTERN US...RESULTING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TREND BEGINNING ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS ON TARGET DUE TO FALLING TEMPS ALOFT AS TROUGH BECOMES ANCHORED. AVIATION... VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 02Z. RADAR TREND LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPO -TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF HIGHER TERRAIN...CHO AND MRB BY 20Z AND AT MAJOR HUBS BY 21Z. POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD +TSRA AT MAJOR HUBS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VIS DURING TSTMS WILL BE REDUCED TO 3-5SM AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD GUST 15-20 KT NEAR THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY AS STORMS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADVERTISED CHO AND MRB GOING TO 2SM OVERNIGHT AND DCA-BWI-IAD-MTN GOING TO AT LEAST 3-4SM. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE TSTMS THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG. SKIES SHOULD CU UP MID MORNING TUE AS HEATING AND MOISTURE MIX OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER. MARINE... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF LOCAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH FULL MOON. AT THIS POINT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN BUT IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE EXPECTED FETCH. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR DCZ001 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. MD...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. VA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. WV...HEAT ADVISORY FOR WVZ048>055 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI/GUYER LONG TERM...BROTHERTON AVIATION...GUYER MARINE...ROGOWSKI/GUYER UPDATE...SMITH md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ERN SD INTO NW IA. LEAD SHRTWV AND AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIV/DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVED FROM WI THROUGH THE W HLF OF UPR MI. TSRA HAD FALLEN APART AS THE CONVECTION MOVED INTO NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AWAY FROM THE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA HAD DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL WI...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV SPOKE WAS MOVING MOVING INTO SE MN AND TOWARD ERN IA. EVEN THROUGH SOME OF THE SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE INTO MAINLY THE W HLF OF UPR MI OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PER UPSTREAM SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. TOWARD DAYBREAK...BETTER CHANCE/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO UPR MI WITH THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV. ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY (400-800 J/KG FROM 875 MB...DEWPOINT NEAR 14C...PER MODIFIED MDL AND 00Z KGRB SNDGS) WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. && JLB .PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS ISSUED 508 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005. TUESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MVMT AND TRACK OF MIDLVL LOW. TEND TO FAVOR BLEND OF GFS/UKMET AND NAM SOLNS WHICH BRINGS LOW INTO SW BORDER COUNTIES BY LATE TUE. LOOKING AT MODIFIED FCST FCST SNDGS FM GFS AND NAM WOULD STILL SUGGEST A THREAT OF SVR STORMS IN AFT. AGAIN CLOUD COVER MAY BE INHIBITOR...BUT WITH LOW 70S TEMPS OVER LOW 60S DWPNTS (WHICH I THINK IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST AND SE COUNTIES) CAPES COULD STILL REACH 500-1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FALLS OFF IN THE AFTN TO 20-25 KT...LOWER WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 10-11 KFT WITH APPROACHING COLD POOL COULD PRODUCE SOME PULSE SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBLE SVR STORMS IN HWO. SOME UNCERTAINTY INDICATED WITH MODELS FOR WED INTO THU WITH HOW QUICKLY MIDLVL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA. WITH NAM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT UKMET SHOWING LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF LOW INTO THU...KEPT IN CHC SHRA ACROSS CWA ON WED AND INSERTED SHRA INTO ERN COUNTIES FOR WED NIGHT. FOR NOW LEFT THU DRY...BUT MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING DOWN FROM NORTH OF LAKE ON BACK OF MID LVL LOW INTO ERN ZONES WITH 8H TEMPS LOWERING TO 3-6C PER GFS! SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE...AS SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THU FOR ERN COUNTIES. ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DECENT NRLY WINDS FCST. FRI-MON...EXPECT RDGG TO FINALLY WORK IN FM WEST BY FRI AND THEN BUILD OVER AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. EXPECT GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND...AS GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS(PREV DISCUSSION) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 508 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUE AND POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LVL LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA WITH AN ASSOC NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LWR MIDWEST. SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING OUT AHEAD OF THIS MID LVL LOW PRODUCING LINE OF TSRA FROM SE INTO NW WI. 18Z SNDGS FM KGRB AND KMPX SHOW HIGH PWAT OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. KGRB SNDG MODIFIED FOR T/TD OF LOW 80S/MID 60S INDICATES CAPES OF 700-1000 J/KG ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR SHEAR SOMEWHAT LIMITED ATTM TO AROUND 20 KT. SHEAR DOES PICK UP MARGINALLY LATER THIS EVENING NR THE WI BDR WITH VALUES NEAR 25 KT OFF RUC DATA...BUT BY THAT TIME FOCUS OF 8H JET SHIFTS FARTHER SE. SO AGREE WITH SPC OUTLOOK OF KEEPING SLGT RISK OF SVR STORMS JUST SOUTH OF U.P BDR. TONIGHT...AS THE MID/UPR LOW AND SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...UPR 850-500MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS 5H DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE INTO WRN HALF COUNTIES. THUS BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG SW COUNTIES AND CONTINUED LIKELY POPS INTO NCNTRL COUNTIES. ALSO HELPING ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER POPS IN WEST WILL BE LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING FROM 80 KT 3H JET TO SOUTH AND HIGH PWATS ADVECTING IN OVER AREA. ERN COUNTIES SHOULD TEND TO STAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRIER MID LVL RDG UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN RDG GETS PUSHED EAST WITH APPROACHING UPR LOW. SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR ERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL PUSH BACK CHC WORDING UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MVMT AND TRACK OF MIDLVL LOW. TEND TO FAVOR BLEND OF GFS/UKMET AND NAM SOLNS WHICH BRINGS LOW INTO SW BORDER COUNTIES BY LATE TUE. LOOKING AT MODIFIED FCST FCST SNDGS FM GFS AND NAM WOULD STILL SUGGEST A THREAT OF SVR STORMS IN AFT. AGAIN CLOUD COVER MAY BE INHIBITOR...BUT WITH LOW 70S TEMPS OVER LOW 60S DWPNTS (WHICH I THINK IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST AND SE COUNTIES) CAPES COULD STILL REACH 500-1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FALLS OFF IN THE AFTN TO 20-25 KT...LOWER WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 10-11 KFT WITH APPROACHING COLD POOL COULD PRODUCE SOME PULSE SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBLE SVR STORMS IN HWO. SOME UNCERTAINTY INDICATED WITH MODELS FOR WED INTO THU WITH HOW QUICKLY MIDLVL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA. WITH NAM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT UKMET SHOWING LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF LOW INTO THU...KEPT IN CHC SHRA ACROSS CWA ON WED AND INSERTED SHRA INTO ERN COUNTIES FOR WED NIGHT. FOR NOW LEFT THU DRY...BUT MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING DOWN FROM NORTH OF LAKE ON BACK OF MID LVL LOW INTO ERN ZONES WITH 8H TEMPS LOWERING TO 3-6C PER GFS! SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE...AS SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THU FOR ERN COUNTIES. ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DECENT NRLY WINDS FCST. FRI-MON...EXPECT RDGG TO FINALLY WORK IN FM WEST BY FRI AND THEN BUILD OVER AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. EXPECT GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND...AS GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 123 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .AVIATION... CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE EXITS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. SAGINAW WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPIATION CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION FROM THIS EVENING/S ACTIVITY OUT WEST WORKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1155 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005) UPDATE... RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE CONTINUES TO TREK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUOUS RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING FOR MOST OF THE MORNING ACROSS MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND DEEP MOISTURE IS NOW ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS NOON. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON UNFOLDS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND ARLENE/S REMNANTS...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY IN CHECK. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION... REMNANTS OF ARLENE... CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS OF 08Z... THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SW LOWER MI ALONG THE I-69/M59 CORRIDORS. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL DEFORMATION DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HAVE HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THIS BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SET UP A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE... THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR FROM SAGINAW TO ANN ARBOR. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES... A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. IT REALLY DID NOT APPEAR THAT ANY MODEL FROM THE 00Z SUITE HAD AN ADEQUATE HANDLE ON THIS WAVE. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP FIELD HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE INDICATED AND THE WAVE HAS BEEN WEAKENING MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE 06Z NAM AND RUC HAVE PICKED UP ON THINGS A LITTLE BETTER BASED ON WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA... WHICH GENERALLY SHOW THE BEST DEFORMATION DYNAMICS SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA... PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM AS THE BEST LIFT HAS ALREADY PASSED TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION DYNAMICS WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH OFF SOME CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR APPARENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THAT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL THUS CARRY A DRY FORECAST... THINKING THE RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... ON TUESDAY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS MICHIGAN. TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. 00Z/13 NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW US TO MAXIMIZE SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG LEADING TO STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS PRESENT WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55+ KNOTS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS LIES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER SHOWING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN WHILE THE GFS OCCLUDES WITH THE SURFACE LOW WRAPPING UP OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA. GFS SURFACE PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM 00Z/13 GEM/LOCAL WRFXX AND 12Z/12 ECMWF AND SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL FAVOR GFS FOR NOW WHICH DOES SHOW A LOWER RISK...BUT DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BOTH WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL WAKE UP WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOWER 70S...ENDING THE 9 DAY STRETCH OF HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THAT STARTED BACK ON JUNE 4TH. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BACK AROUND NORMAL (80/57) BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPS AT 500MB INITIALLY COOL TO -12C BEFORE THIS WAVE PHASES WITH A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS WAVE USHERS IN A POCKET OF -16C AIR CAUSING IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER MICHIGAN AT THE SURFACE WITH A NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...MANN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1155 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE CONTINUES TO TREK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUOUS RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING FOR MOST OF THE MORNING ACROSS MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND DEEP MOISTURE IS NOW ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS NOON. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON UNFOLDS. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND ARLENE/S REMNANTS...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY IN CHECK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 730 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005) AVIATION... THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...EXITING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING SE MICHIGAN. THESE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING... SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT INTO A VFR STRATO CU DECK BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION... REMNANTS OF ARLENE... CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS OF 08Z... THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SW LOWER MI ALONG THE I-69/M59 CORRIDORS. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL DEFORMATION DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HAVE HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THIS BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SET UP A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE... THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR FROM SAGINAW TO ANN ARBOR. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES... A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. IT REALLY DID NOT APPEAR THAT ANY MODEL FROM THE 00Z SUITE HAD AN ADEQUATE HANDLE ON THIS WAVE. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP FIELD HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE INDICATED AND THE WAVE HAS BEEN WEAKENING MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE 06Z NAM AND RUC HAVE PICKED UP ON THINGS A LITTLE BETTER BASED ON WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA... WHICH GENERALLY SHOW THE BEST DEFORMATION DYNAMICS SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA... PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM AS THE BEST LIFT HAS ALREADY PASSED TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION DYNAMICS WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH OFF SOME CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR APPARENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THAT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL THUS CARRY A DRY FORECAST... THINKING THE RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... ON TUESDAY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS MICHIGAN. TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. 00Z/13 NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW US TO MAXIMIZE SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG LEADING TO STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS PRESENT WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55+ KNOTS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS LIES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER SHOWING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN WHILE THE GFS OCCLUDES WITH THE SURFACE LOW WRAPPING UP OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA. GFS SURFACE PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM 00Z/13 GEM/LOCAL WRFXX AND 12Z/12 ECMWF AND SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL FAVOR GFS FOR NOW WHICH DOES SHOW A LOWER RISK...BUT DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BOTH WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL WAKE UP WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOWER 70S...ENDING THE 9 DAY STRETCH OF HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THAT STARTED BACK ON JUNE 4TH. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BACK AROUND NORMAL (80/57) BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPS AT 500MB INITIALLY COOL TO -12C BEFORE THIS WAVE PHASES WITH A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS WAVE USHERS IN A POCKET OF -16C AIR CAUSING IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER MICHIGAN AT THE SURFACE WITH A NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MANN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 730 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .AVIATION... THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...EXITING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING... EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO SW LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING SE MICHIGAN. THESE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING... SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT INTO A VFR STRATO CU DECK BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION... REMNANTS OF ARLENE... CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS OF 08Z... THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SW LOWER MI ALONG THE I-69/M59 CORRIDORS. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL DEFORMATION DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HAVE HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGE. THIS BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SET UP A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE... THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR FROM SAGINAW TO ANN ARBOR. BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES... A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. IT REALLY DID NOT APPEAR THAT ANY MODEL FROM THE 00Z SUITE HAD AN ADEQUATE HANDLE ON THIS WAVE. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP FIELD HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE INDICATED AND THE WAVE HAS BEEN WEAKENING MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE 06Z NAM AND RUC HAVE PICKED UP ON THINGS A LITTLE BETTER BASED ON WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA... WHICH GENERALLY SHOW THE BEST DEFORMATION DYNAMICS SETTING UP FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MI TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA... PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM AS THE BEST LIFT HAS ALREADY PASSED TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION DYNAMICS WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY WORKING INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH OFF SOME CONVECTION. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR APPARENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THAT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL THUS CARRY A DRY FORECAST... THINKING THE RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF CONVECTION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM... ON TUESDAY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS MICHIGAN. TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. 00Z/13 NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW US TO MAXIMIZE SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG LEADING TO STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS PRESENT WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55+ KNOTS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS LIES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER SHOWING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN WHILE THE GFS OCCLUDES WITH THE SURFACE LOW WRAPPING UP OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA. GFS SURFACE PATTERN HAS SUPPORT FROM 00Z/13 GEM/LOCAL WRFXX AND 12Z/12 ECMWF AND SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL FAVOR GFS FOR NOW WHICH DOES SHOW A LOWER RISK...BUT DEFINITELY KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BOTH WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL WAKE UP WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOWER 70S...ENDING THE 9 DAY STRETCH OF HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THAT STARTED BACK ON JUNE 4TH. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BACK AROUND NORMAL (80/57) BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPS AT 500MB INITIALLY COOL TO -12C BEFORE THIS WAVE PHASES WITH A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AS THIS WAVE USHERS IN A POCKET OF -16C AIR CAUSING IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER MICHIGAN AT THE SURFACE WITH A NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONSIDINE LONG TERM...KAHL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 350 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .DISCUSSION... A GREAT DEAL OF INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE MPX CWA FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA ON THE SPC HOURLY MESOANALYSIS PAGE...A REFLECTION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AND EJECTING NORTHWARD TOWARD OR AREA. CAPE BUILDUP HAS BEEN SLOW TODAY...REFLECTING CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT VERY HIGH VALUES OF 0-3 KM CAPE (I.E. 100-150J/KG) CAN BE SEEN WORKING NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY (AGAIN SPC PAGE) AS WELL AS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA (ALSO 100-150 J/KG). 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND 0-3 KM VGP PARAMETERS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT BOTH RUC40 AND NAM40 ARE FORECASTING A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN SAME THROUGH 00 GMT. FIRING CONVECTION WILL NO DOUBT INCREASE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AS OUTFLOW FROM FIRING STORMS BACKS THE WIND FIELD DUE TO SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE LOW HAS VERY LOW CNTRAL PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO THE SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS EVENT SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK (I.E. F2 AND ABOVE STRENGTH). WE WILL STAY WITH THE FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT BEST DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTING HAS PROGRESSED NORTH AND WEST OF THESE COUNTIES AS SEEN ON MOISTURE CHANNEL LOOP. REMAINDER OF GRIDS REFLECT MOVING PRECIPITATION EASTWARD OUT OF MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF OUR WISCONSIN COUNTIES BY NOON WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SLOWLY BUILDING WARM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA FOR THIS PERIOD. GIVEN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WARM DRY PERIOD. THIS WAS ALREADY INDICATED ON THE MID SHIFT...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO EXISTING GRIDS. MIN MAX TEMPERATURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH 13/00Z MEX GUIDANCE. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MN...FLOOD WATCH...W CNTRL MN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. .WI...NONE. && $$ WET/NAISTAT mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 334 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .DISCUSSION... LOSING THE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...SO MAIN SHOW THIS EVENING APPEARS WILL BE EAST OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE TO WATCH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR POSSIBLE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPS RATES ACROSS NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AS WINDS VEER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS INTO REGION THIS EVENING. SO WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERN OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK. COOLER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING...AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... 150 PM... UPDATED FORECAST TO CONCENTRATE SEVERE RISK OVER SOUTHEAST SECTION OF CWA WHICH IS DESTABILIZING THE FASTEST THIS AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD BACK SURFACE HEATING AND THUS LIMITED THE RECOVERY OF BETTER INSTABILITY TO MATERIALIZE. STILL WATCHING THE CUMULUS FIELD FROM NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO EASTERN KS FOR ANY TYPE OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO WHICH WILL HAVE THE STEEPEST MILD LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVANCING INTO A REGION OF CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHWEST MO. MJ 900 AM... HAVE PULLED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN VICINITY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND INTO NORTHWEST MO AROUND 18Z SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CWA. ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT WEATHER. MJ 730 AM... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. RUC ANALYSIS OF THE 850 MB WINDS AND THETA-E SUGGEST NEUTRAL TO DRY ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. FURTHER SOUTH, STORMS HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. THEY ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, SO I HESITATE TO TAKE THE FLOOD WATCH DOWN WITH STORMS TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KOCH 425 AM... A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS DIGGING TO FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF VORTICITY LOBES CAN BE DETECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT THIS HOUR DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONGER CONVECTION LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. A SECOND MORE POTENT VORTICITY MAX IS TRAVERSING ACROSS COLORADO AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING THIS WAY SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG HEATING LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CAP. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLORADO VORTICITY MAX ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. 500MB WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. I ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL IGNITE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE NAM. I HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS SO LOW OVER MANY OF THE COUNTIES IN WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ACCORDING TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, A QUICK THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE WILL NOT GET THAT THIS MORNING, BUT MODEST 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS MAY GENERATE SOME STRONGER CELLS THIS MORNING. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVERS, OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI SO I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATER IN THE DAY. IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK CONVECTION BY 7 OR 8 AM. I MAY CANCEL SOME OR ALL OF THE FLOOD WATCH. KOCH && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ZONES 032,033,039,040,043-046,053,054. KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ZONES 057,060. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 150 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FORECAST TO CONCENTRATE SEVERE RISK OVER SOUTHEAST SECTION OF CWA WHICH IS DESTABILIZING THE FASTEST THIS AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD BACK SURFACE HEATING AND THUS LIMITED THE RECOVERY OF BETTER INSTABILITY TO MATERIALIZE. STILL WATCHING THE CUMULUS FIELD FROM NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO EASTERN KS FOR ANY TYPE OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF MO WHICH WILL HAVE THE STEEPEST MILD LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVANCING INTO A REGION OF CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHWEST MO. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... 900 AM... HAVE PULLED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN VICINITY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND INTO NORTHWEST MO AROUND 18Z SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CWA. ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT WEATHER. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... 730 AM... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. RUC ANALYSIS OF THE 850 MB WINDS AND THETA-E SUGGEST NEUTRAL TO DRY ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. FURTHER SOUTH, STORMS HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. THEY ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, SO I HESITATE TO TAKE THE FLOOD WATCH DOWN WITH STORMS TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KOCH && .PREV DISCUSSION... 425 AM... A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS DIGGING TO FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF VORTICITY LOBES CAN BE DETECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT THIS HOUR DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONGER CONVECTION LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. A SECOND MORE POTENT VORTICITY MAX IS TRAVERSING ACROSS COLORADO AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING THIS WAY SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG HEATING LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CAP. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLORADO VORTICITY MAX ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. 500MB WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. I ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL IGNITE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE NAM. I HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS SO LOW OVER MANY OF THE COUNTIES IN WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ACCORDING TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, A QUICK THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE WILL NOT GET THAT THIS MORNING, BUT MODEST 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS MAY GENERATE SOME STRONGER CELLS THIS MORNING. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVERS, OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI SO I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATER IN THE DAY. IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK CONVECTION BY 7 OR 8 AM. I MAY CANCEL SOME OR ALL OF THE FLOOD WATCH. KOCH && 425 PM SUN BUSY DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER MOVING INTO AREA. SHORT STORY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY...SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. A SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION SEEN IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THEN ANOTHER ROUND SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING WITH UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL IN THE REGION. ONCE THIS MOVES PAST...FINALLY...SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE STORY WEATHER. PC && 1222 PM SUN SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HORUS. STORMS FROM THE FIST COMPLEX THIS MORNING ARE NOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...IN CENTRAL KANSAS...HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON ITS EAST SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING INTO SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING COMPLEX. SO...I HAVE PULLED THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOLAR INSULATION THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE I HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE (50%) POPS ACROSS THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPERATURES... PUSHING THEM DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...AND LIFTING THEM IN THE SOUTHEAST. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ZONES 032,033,039,040,043-046,053,054. KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ZONES 057,060. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 900 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .DISCUSSION... HAVE PULLED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN VICINITY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND INTO NORTHWEST MO AROUND 18Z SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN CWA. ALSO ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT WEATHER. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... 730 AM... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. RUC ANALYSIS OF THE 850 MB WINDS AND THETA-E SUGGEST NEUTRAL TO DRY ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. FURTHER SOUTH, STORMS HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. THEY ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, SO I HESITATE TO TAKE THE FLOOD WATCH DOWN WITH STORMS TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KOCH && .PREV DISCUSSION... 425 AM... A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS DIGGING TO FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF VORTICITY LOBES CAN BE DETECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT THIS HOUR DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONGER CONVECTION LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. A SECOND MORE POTENT VORTICITY MAX IS TRAVERSING ACROSS COLORADO AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING THIS WAY SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG HEATING LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CAP. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLORADO VORTICITY MAX ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. 500MB WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. I ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL IGNITE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE NAM. I HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS SO LOW OVER MANY OF THE COUNTIES IN WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ACCORDING TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, A QUICK THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE WILL NOT GET THAT THIS MORNING, BUT MODEST 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS MAY GENERATE SOME STRONGER CELLS THIS MORNING. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVERS, OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI SO I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATER IN THE DAY. IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK CONVECTION BY 7 OR 8 AM. I MAY CANCEL SOME OR ALL OF THE FLOOD WATCH. KOCH && 425 PM SUN BUSY DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER MOVING INTO AREA. SHORT STORY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY...SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. A SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION SEEN IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THEN ANOTHER ROUND SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING WITH UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL IN THE REGION. ONCE THIS MOVES PAST...FINALLY...SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE STORY WEATHER. PC && 1222 PM SUN SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HORUS. STORMS FROM THE FIST COMPLEX THIS MORNING ARE NOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...IN CENTRAL KANSAS...HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON ITS EAST SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING INTO SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING COMPLEX. SO...I HAVE PULLED THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOLAR INSULATION THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE I HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE (50%) POPS ACROSS THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPERATURES... PUSHING THEM DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...AND LIFTING THEM IN THE SOUTHEAST. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ZONES 032,033,039,040,043-046,053,054. KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ZONES 057,060. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 730 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. RUC ANALYSIS OF THE 850 MB WINDS AND THETA-E SUGGEST NEUTRAL TO DRY ADVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. FURTHER SOUTH, STORMS HAVE FORMED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. THEY ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, SO I HESITATE TO TAKE THE FLOOD WATCH DOWN WITH STORMS TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. KOCH && .PREV DISCUSSION... 425 AM... A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS DIGGING TO FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF VORTICITY LOBES CAN BE DETECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT THIS HOUR DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONGER CONVECTION LAST EVENING OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. A SECOND MORE POTENT VORTICITY MAX IS TRAVERSING ACROSS COLORADO AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING THIS WAY SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG HEATING LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CAP. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLORADO VORTICITY MAX ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. 500MB WINDS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. I ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL IGNITE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE NAM. I HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON SINCE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS SO LOW OVER MANY OF THE COUNTIES IN WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. ACCORDING TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, A QUICK THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE WILL NOT GET THAT THIS MORNING, BUT MODEST 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS MAY GENERATE SOME STRONGER CELLS THIS MORNING. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVERS, OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI SO I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATER IN THE DAY. IF RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK CONVECTION BY 7 OR 8 AM. I MAY CANCEL SOME OR ALL OF THE FLOOD WATCH. KOCH && 425 PM SUN BUSY DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER MOVING INTO AREA. SHORT STORY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY...SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. A SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION SEEN IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THEN ANOTHER ROUND SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING WITH UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL IN THE REGION. ONCE THIS MOVES PAST...FINALLY...SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE STORY WEATHER. PC && 1222 PM SUN SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HORUS. STORMS FROM THE FIST COMPLEX THIS MORNING ARE NOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...IN CENTRAL KANSAS...HAS BEGUN TO ERODE ON ITS EAST SIDE AS IT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING INTO SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING COMPLEX. SO...I HAVE PULLED THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOLAR INSULATION THAT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE I HAVE LEFT HIGH CHANCE (50%) POPS ACROSS THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPERATURES... PUSHING THEM DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER...AND LIFTING THEM IN THE SOUTHEAST. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ZONES 032,033,039,040,043-046,053,054. KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON ZONES 057,060. $$ mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... WEAK AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHER TIER AT 1000AM POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS TIME. THIS WEAK LINE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NOW WELL KNOWN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. RUC SOUNDING GIVES US A -3.6 LI AND A MLCAPE OF ABOUT 500. RUCS SBCAPES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH NAMS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC VALUES OF 1600. WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD MIXED LAYER VALUES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS LINE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT TIME WILL TELL. THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH IT MOVING THROUGH ROC AND ART LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE CHANGES IN FORECAST WITH AN ATTEMPT TO TIME THESE TWO EVENTS FOR THE TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIODS. NO CHANGES TO TEMP OR DEWPOINTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... SFC LOW CENTER OF ARLENE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AT 06Z IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO REACHING NORTHERN NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...BASICALLY RIDING THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH "ARLENE". ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TAP WITH TEMPS AGAIN REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. PW'S CONTINUE AROUND 2" SO ANY TSTMS TODAY COULD STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAINS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT KEEPING THE CHC POPS. GFS/NAM HINTING AT WARM FRONT FROM LOW OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN REACHING WNY BY TUESDAY AFTN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. 850 TEMPS FALLING TO +10 TO +12C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ON TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH MILD JUNE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... MVFR CONDITIONS (FOR VSBY IN HAZE/LIGHT FOG) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS... THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH THIS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE CROSS THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH THEY COULD GO BORDERLINE MVFR IN THE WAKE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ UPDATE...ZAFF SHORT TERM...JML LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...JJR ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1030 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)...MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS STUBBORN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOIST/CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL ALTHOUGH RUC CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE MID LEVELS TO REMAIN MOIST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A VERY SLOW EROSION OF THE MID CLOUD DECK...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NE. SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE NUMEROUS CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS UNDER THE MID CLOUD DECK. AGREE WITH CHS(ILM) THAT PROSPECTS FOR WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE VERY SLIM DUE TO CAPPING INVERSION/SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE I AM FAVORING STAYING PAT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WELL INLAND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS >15C...EVEN FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD GET US CLOSE TO 90 FOR HIGHS. AN UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS IF MID CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. && .AVIATION...A BKN MID DECK AROUND 10KFT HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1.5KFT AND SCT MARGINAL VFR 3KFT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS TO LIFT SOME TO 3-5KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID DECK WILL SLOWLY BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. && .MARINE...FOR THE REST OF TODAY AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL SINK S...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES (REMNANTS OF ARLENE) OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES E-WARD TO OUR N. THIS SET UP WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS AROUND 15KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON HEATING TAKES PLACE...COULD SEE SOME THERMALLY DRIVEN 20KT WINDS PRIMARILY NEARSHORE. OTHERWISE SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE 2 TO 3 FT MARK WITH A SMALL 8SEC SE SWELL. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ JME/SJ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 1010 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT) RADAR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING LOOPS SHOW MCS MOVING TWRD WRN OH FROM IL THIS EVG. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS INSTBY INCREASING INTO WRN OH BTWN NOW AND 09Z WITH LI'S FROM 3- TO -5 BY 09Z. CAPES ALSO FCST TO RISE TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG. CRNTLY HWVR CAPES JUST AHD OF THE CONVECTION ARE ABOUT 2400 TO 2800 J/KG AND LI'S ARE CLOSER TO -7. HAVE ALSO LOOKED AT MID LVL LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN EWD OR SLIGHTLY ESE MOVEMENT. DO BLV TSTMS WL WKN AS THEY APCH THE AREA AND WILL PLACE CHC POPS INTO THE FCST TO COVER PSBLTY OF CONVECTION REACHING INTO THE AREA. LIGHTNING TRENDS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST WKNG ON THE N SIDE WITH MORE CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONFINED ON THE SE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CRNT TIMING WOULD BRING IT INTO THE WRN CWA ARND OR JUST AFTER 2AM. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYG ALF WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST POTENTIAL SO WL WORD PSBL GUSTY WINDS WITH TSTMS. NO OTHER MAJ CHGS. && .AVIATION(00Z-24Z)... AMS WL WL RMN MOIST AND UNSTBL IN ADVANCE OF CDFNT THAT MOVS INTO AREA BY LATE MON. CU FILED WL MOSTLY DISPT JUST AFT TAF TIME. PATCH OF CONVECTION OVR NRN IN CUD GET TO TOL/FDY AREA BUT THINK WITH EVE COOLING THIS ACTIVITY WL DISPT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER TSRA SHUD DVLP TUE AHD OF THE CDFNT BUT AMS NOT SHOWING MUCH LLVL CONVERGCE WITH THE FRONT SO MAY HV ONLY SCT TO WDLY SCT ACTIVITY. FOR NOW THINK BEST THING IS TO KP OUT OF TAFS OTHER THAN TO USE CB IN CLD TYPE OR USE VCTS TO SHOW POSSIBILITY. SHUD KY ENUF SWLY FLOW TO LIMIT FOG LATER TNGT. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)... THREE REGIMES GOING ON AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NW PA BEING WARM WITH WRAP AROUND STRATOCU INVADING AND A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR MAYBE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING. MIDDLE SECTIONS OF FCST AREA FROM YTOWN TO SANDUSKY AND MANSFIELD ARE CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE SUN IS COMING BACK OUT ACROSS NW OH. NAM/ETA PRETTY AGRESSIVE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MIDWEST ACROSS NW OH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF HEAT AND THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DRIVING THE ACTIVITY I HAVE A FEELING IT WILL STAY WEST OF FCST AREA. WL MENTION JUST A SMALL CHANCE OVERNIGHT NW OH. INITIAL SFC TROUGH OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS FCST AREA TUESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DESTABILIZATION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH AND IT IS NOT CLEAR TO ME EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS STILL PUSHING 70 THAT THERE WILL EVETUALLY BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL USE HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY TO DESCRIBE THREAT. WL MENTION "CHANCE OF SEVERE" IN ZONES AS NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE INSTABILITY BUT SOME SHEAR WITH DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER FOR A WHILE EARLY TUE NGT AND THEN WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WED AS ACTUAL PUSH OF COOLER SURFACE AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST. FCST TEMPS ARE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND NAM AS IT COULD BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW THAT GFS SHOWS BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP AND THEN IT MAY COOL DOWN A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS ADVERTISES WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... UNSEASONABLE UPPER LOW TO DROP SE ACROSS E GRTLKS. DETAILS NOT CLEAR AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST SYSTEM WILL MOVE. NEW NAM/ETA TRENDING TOWARD LOW MOVING SE ACROS NEW YORK STATE AND SLIINDG EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHILE 12Z GFS BROUGHT LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OHIO. THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO STRONG AND NCEP FAVORS TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER NE. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW WITH THE LAST HOPEFULLY ON FRIDAY SO CHANCE OF RANDOM SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY SHIFTING FARTHER ENE LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIP FLOP FROM BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. IF IT WERE TO BE OVERCAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY TEMPS COULD HOLD IN THE 60S BUT WILL NOT FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF MID JUNE SUNSHINE GOES A LONG WAY AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO 70 OR LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE DRY BY THE WEEKEND WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...TK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...ADAMS oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 930 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD INDIANA WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITIES REMAINING ACROSS INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN DROPPING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WE HEAD EAST INTO OHIO. THUS...GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST TOWARD OUR FA. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT...THINK THAT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY THERE. WITH LITTLE ELSE GOING ON ACROSS OUR AREA ATTM WILL REMOVE EVENING POPS ACROSS REMAINDER FA EXPECT THE FAR WEST WHERE WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT JUST IN CASE ACTIVITY OFF TO OUR WEST HOLDS TOGETHER. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... FEW TO SCT CU ACROSS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THIS TO PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT IF NAM ENDS UP BEING RIGHT WITH PROGGED SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CHANCE APPEARS SLIM ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS. THEN EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE OPTED TO HANDLE THIS CHANCE WITH A CB IN ALL THE TAFS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MOST PART. CLOUDS WERE DECREASING WEST TO EAST...AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...THE NAM BRINGS A WEAK S/W INTO THE FAR WEST LATE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS FEATURE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN NEARLY ZERO POPS WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL COMPROMISE AND CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE. FOR TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND SEVERAL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS...WITH IS ALSO A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE POPS. BY CONSENSUS...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... AFT TUES EVNG FROPA...UPR LO TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACRS GRT LKS AND AFFECT FIRST PART OF EXTENDED. LAST COUPLE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH UPR LO...LEAVING IT WOBBLING AROUND IN GRT LKS AND OH VLY THRU FRI. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND...PROGRESSING UPR LO INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI-SAT. HAVE THUS GONE WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE CONSENSUS SOLN...LIMITING PCPN CHANCES TO WED AND THURS AS UPR TROF AND SVRL WEAK MID LVL VORTS SWINGS THRU REGION. GFS/NAM BOTH INDCG LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. APPEARS THERE COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS BOTH WED AND THURS THAT WOULD HELP TO LIMIT EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. AFTER THURS...SFC HI WILL BUILD IN FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN M70S ON WED/THURS RISING TO L80S BY SUN/MON AS CNTRL PLAINS UPR RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. DRY NRLY FLO THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL ENSURE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST 7 TO 10 DAYS. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1100 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT TERM... AT 1030 AM...GOES-8 VSBL SATL IMGRY SHOWS AREA OF CLOUDINESS OVER E PA ADVCTNG INTO NJ. SOME TAF LOCNS ARE PERSISTING WTH CIGS ARND BKN030 BUT ANTCPTNG THIS TO BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LATE MORNING TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE LOW 80S AND WITH SUNSHINE AFT THE CLDNS MOVES OFF THE COAST...TEMPS WL LKLY REACH 90 IN URBAN LOCNS. BOTH LEWES AND DE BAY BUOY HAVE GUSTS TO MID TEENS ATTM...BUT ALSO AM EXPCTNG THIS TO DECR WITH A SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN ALONG JRSY SHORE. AS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFT...BUFKIT SNDG AT PHL AND ACY SHOW ABT 700-1000 J/KG...BUT NO REAL TRIGGER THRU CWA AS 12Z RUC HAS H5 RIDGE OVER US WITH NVA. THUS POTL FOR ANY CONV TDY IS WITH DECAYING TSRA COMPLEX COMING OUT OF CNTRL PA. VRY MINOR CHGS TO GRIDS WITH MORNING UPDATE PACKAGE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PAZ067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NJZ15-017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY WEDNESDAY DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SHORT TERM: LEE LONG TERM: LISTEMAA PREV AFD BELOW: #################################################################### .OVERVIEW... FINDING THE RIGHT TEMPERATURE SCHEME FROM THE MODELS WILL DETERMINE OUR COMFORT FACTOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ANY EVENT, BEFORE WE GET TO SEE THOSE ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S LATER IN THE WEEK, WE'RE GOING TO POSSIBLE ENDURE HOT TEMPERATURES AND A HEAT INDEX THAT COULD REACH ABOVE THE HUNDRED DEGREE MARK AND POSSIBLY NEAR ONE HUNDRED FIVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THINKING AT THIS EARLY HOUR IS THAT AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PHL HAS REACH 90 ONLY ONCE THIS JUNE ON THE 8TH(94), ALLENTOWN 93 ON THE SAME DAY AS DID ATLANTIC CITY(92), WILMINGTON (90) AND GEORGETOWN (91). READING LEADS THE WAY WITH FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF >90 DEG, JUNE 6/7/8/9 WITH 92, 90, 95 AND 92. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD REACH INTO THE MID 90S ESP IN THE AREAS FROM PHL, SOUTH AND EAST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THAT WE'VE YET TO HAVE A HOT STRETCH HERE FOLLOWING A COOL LATE SPRING. .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) KDOX RADAR SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CHES BAY AND OCNLY UP TO SRN DEL BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NAM PICKED UP ON THIS WITH .04 MOVING OFFSHORE 12Z. MSAS SHOWS VORT MAX AND LI'S OF ARND 0 GENRL AREA. ONCE GONE, THAT WILL BE IT THIS MRNG. BUT MORE ON THE WAY. SATL SHOWING TROP MOISTURE MOVING N THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND CLOUDS STREAMING DOWN BACK-SIDE OF RIDG. OUR PCPN LATER ON COMPLIMENTS OF VORT MAX MOVING INTO NY BUT TAILING S ALONG THE APPALACHIANS DEVELOPING A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES ACRSS THE STATE OF PA DURING THE MID DAY/EVENING HOURS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND PW'S OF 2 INCHES, SHOULD SE SOME HEAVY SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR. SHOULD ONLY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS UP UNTIL AROUND 17Z AND THEN LOOK FOR A LINE OF -TSRA TO FORM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ON WED IT'LL BE A CLOSE CALL WITH REACHING THE HIGHER TEMPS BUT COULD REACH ABOVE 100 HEAT INDEX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IN ADDITION, W WINDS AT 80H COULD LOWER DEW POINTS FROM DOWNSLOPING AND PUT AN END TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT BUT IF NOT PART OF WED WILL BE A SULTRY DAY. WED IS SIMILAR TO THE DAY WHEN WE LAST HAD AN ADVISORY UP THEN THE FRONT CAME CRASHING THROUGH ON THE 6TH WITH WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE DISC'S FROM SPC. FOLLOWING FROPA TEMPS COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BARRELLS THROUGH THEN STRONGER UPPER LOW FORMS ON DOWNSIDE OF LAKES AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO KRDG. HOWEVER...ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME PROB GROUPS AND WILL LOOK AT INTRODUCING SOME TEMPOS FOR THE LATER PACKAGE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PAZ067>071. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NJZ15-017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUESDAY WEDNESDAY DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...EBERWINE AVIATION/MARINE...NIERENBERG pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 622 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING AND ASCENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW TSTMS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 402 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... CALLS TO THE MOUNTAINS REVEALED A COUPLE NEW AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN FLOODING. CONSIDERING THAT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP...THINK THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET IS TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH NOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 301 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF INDY. ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A SHARP MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY CAN BE SEEN OVER ERN TN WITH HIGHER RH AIR OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS AND MUCH DRIER AIR OVER MOST OF TN/KY AND NW GA. SOME TSTMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THIS MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY DURING THE LATE EVENING OVER NRN GA. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BECOME STEADILY WEAKER THE PAST FEW HRS. THE NAM ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER WRN GA...WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE LIMITING STREAMLINE BETWEEN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FEEDING THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE AND THE SUBSIDENCE AND VEERING FLOW TO ITS WEST. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS ALSO SHOWN TO WEAKEN ON THE NAM AND RUC...TO THE POINT WHERE IT CAN/T BE IDENTIFIED BY 0900 UTC. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND PLAN TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. THAT SAID...WL STILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG THE SRN ESCARPMENT DURING THE MORNING HRS AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES. LATER TDA THE NAM DEVELOPS A LLVL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE NC MTNS. CAPES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- RATHER ODD FOR THE NAM -- REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC TNGT. AND THERE IS GOOD LLVL MASS CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS AS WELL. THEREFORE WL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NC MTNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TNGT. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO AGGRAVATE CURRENT FLOODING. CERTAINLY THIS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT THIS WL NOT CAUSE ME TO EXTEND THE WATCH. CAPES REALLY SHOOT UP TUE...AND AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT WE WL BE LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING PULSE SEVERE THREAT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WL BE WEAK...SO DON/T THINK CONVECTION WL BE VERY ORGANIZED AND IT MIGHT BE A STRUGGLE TO SEE SCT COVERAGE. STILL... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP POPS IN THE ZONES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS IMPLY THAT A DYING MCS COULD AFFECT THE NC MTNS LATE TUE HIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TUE AND INTO WED MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BOTH TUE AND WED LOOK TO BE HOT AND HUMID...BUT DON/T THINK CONDITIONS IN THE WRN CAROLINAS OR NE GA WL BE BAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HEAT ADVISORY ATTM. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... COOLER AND DRIER TREND BEYOND WED STILL SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED. AVIATION... WITH CONTINUATION OF MOIST S/SE FLOW...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. FOR THE MOST PART...VISBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SHOWER OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER...THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH AROUND SUNRISE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY AND SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH...WITH VFR EXPECTED AT MOST LOCALES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HEATING SHOULD BRING ABOUT GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOO EARLY ATTM TO PINPOINT A WINDOW OF TIME IN WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY...SO HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH W/ CB MENTION AT ALL SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE UNSTABLE. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018 UNTIL NOON MONDAY. NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064 UNTIL NOON MONDAY. SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001-002-004-005 UNTIL NOON MONDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...MCAVOY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1039 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY. FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT THIS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1025 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005) UPDATE... LATE THIS EVENING A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT...IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST AND NOW EXTEND TO NEAR THE TOWN OF HASKELL. DESPITE THE STORMS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THEY ARE MOVING DOWN INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS... AND THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES. BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS TO BRING THE FRONT A LITTLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD DRIFT THROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE FIELDS ON THE NAM INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY. A GREATER PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NOT AS WARM ON TUESDAY. BASED ON CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS...FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO ADJUST WINDS...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 11 PM. UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE SENT AFTER 11 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WATCH EXPIRATION OR CONTINUATION. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 442 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005) UPDATE... FORECAST UPDATE HAS JUST BEEN SENT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY. POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO ADDED. ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN TOWERING CUMULUS...WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING. SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1149 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005) SHORT TERM... UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRYLINE IS DRIFTING EAST...BULGING THROUGH LBB AND THEN ANGLING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST EAST OF MIDLAND. STRATUS ONCE AGAIN HAD TROUBLE DISSIPATING AND IS JUST NOW LEAVING THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. AS UPPER AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PER THE LATEST RUC...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WASH OUT AROUND INTERSTATE 20 EARLY TOMORROW...PER GFS. CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURE...PREFER THIS SOLUTION OVER ETA WHICH PUSHES COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH. WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW...HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THIS AREA. GFS IS SUGGESTING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW EVENING. CORRELATING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PROGD UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND GIVEN THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO HANDLE THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. IF WE DO HAVE THE FORMATION OF AN MCS OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY AND OUT OF THE HEARTLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE CAVEAT THAT DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DISTURBANCE OR TWO DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1025 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... LATE THIS EVENING A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT...IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING TO THE WEST AND NOW EXTEND TO NEAR THE TOWN OF HASKELL. DESPITE THE STORMS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THEY ARE MOVING DOWN INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS... AND THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES. BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS TO BRING THE FRONT A LITTLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD DRIFT THROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE FIELDS ON THE NAM INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY. A GREATER PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NOT AS WARM ON TUESDAY. BASED ON CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS...FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO ADJUST WINDS...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 11 PM. UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE SENT AFTER 11 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WATCH EXPIRATION OR CONTINUATION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 442 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005) UPDATE... FORECAST UPDATE HAS JUST BEEN SENT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY. POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO ADDED. ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN TOWERING CUMULUS...WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING. SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1149 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005) SHORT TERM... UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRYLINE IS DRIFTING EAST...BULGING THROUGH LBB AND THEN ANGLING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST EAST OF MIDLAND. STRATUS ONCE AGAIN HAD TROUBLE DISSIPATING AND IS JUST NOW LEAVING THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. AS UPPER AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PER THE LATEST RUC...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WASH OUT AROUND INTERSTATE 20 EARLY TOMORROW...PER GFS. CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURE...PREFER THIS SOLUTION OVER ETA WHICH PUSHES COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH. WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW...HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THIS AREA. GFS IS SUGGESTING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW EVENING. CORRELATING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PROGD UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND GIVEN THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO HANDLE THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. IF WE DO HAVE THE FORMATION OF AN MCS OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY AND OUT OF THE HEARTLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE CAVEAT THAT DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DISTURBANCE OR TWO DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 11 PM. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1009 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO INTRODUCE LOW ORDER POPS OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS/NORTHEASTERN BASIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSIAC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BACK BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS HINT AT CONVECTIVE QPF OCCURING OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AID SOUTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION./10 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005/ SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR DEPICTS POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVING ACRS CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCD COLD FRONT IS IN NW KS WITH IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC HIGH (4MB/3HR) IN ITS WAKE. FATHER S PREFRONTAL TROF FROM RED RIVER VALLEY THRU SRN PANHANDLE WITH DRYLINE MIXING E ACRS PB. CONVECTIVE CONCERNS ARE LIMITED AT BEST AS LOW CONVERGENCE IS MINIMIZED WITH SW WINDS AS FAR AS E KSJT/KABI. BEST CHC WOULD APPEAR TO BE FAR S IN PECOS/BREWSTER COUNTIES WHERE OROGRAPHICS COME INTO PLAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW CU ACRS BIG BEND REGION AND ATTP PLAN TO ISSUE A DRY FCST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DRYLINE MOVES WWD THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER W THAN A KINK TO KHOB LINE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT NEARING KMAF AT 12Z. TUE AM TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT COOLEST W-NW AND WARMEST E-S. LONG TERM... PROMISE OF UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA NOT MAKING THE FORECAST ANY EASIER. SEVERAL DIFFERENT THINGS TO CONSIDER...AS IN A COLD FRONT TUESDAY...ANOTHER FRIDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THESE DAYS AND IN BETWEEN...AND AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS CERTAIN THAT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND BOWLING BALL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY... ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS YESTERDAY BENEFITED FROM EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. STILL THINK MODELS UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY NOTICEABLE IN MOS OFFERINGS WHICH DISPLAY MAX TEMPS TUESDAY NEAR WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY IN DRY...HOT AIRMASS. FAVOR THE NAM OVER THE GFS...WHICH INEXPLICABLY SLOWS/HALTS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/S PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM...WHICH WILL ENTAIL COOLING HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ADDING A CHANCE OF TSRA/SHRA OVER THE BIG BEND/LOWER TRANS PECOS. TUESDAY NIGHT IS EVEN MORE QUIXOTIC IN MODEL LAND. NAM AGAIN APPEARS MORE REASONABLE WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. THE GFS MEANWHILE FOCUSES ON H85 BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA/TX PANHANDLE...WHICH MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SINCE LEANING TOWARD THE NAM...WILL CARRY BETTER POPS OVER WEST/ SOUTHWEST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THE EVENTUALITY THAT THE GFS WILL BE SOMEHOW CORRECT. PICTURE UNCLEAR ENOUGH TO PEEK AT THE NGM...WHICH INSTEAD OF THE ABOVE SOLUTIONS...DEVELOPS AN MCS OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA. NOT READY TO GO QUITE THAT FAR YET. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS ARE CONCERNED...FIRST GUESS IS WE/LL NOT SEE MUCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...BUT ALSO BECAUSE SHEAR IS A MERE SHADOW OF IT/S FORMER VALUES. THEN AGAIN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE STEEP. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SEVERE TSRA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY/S POPS AND TEMPS IN JEOPARDY...ESPECIALLY IF ANY OR ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM INCREASING POPS A LITTLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WHERE HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELD AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...LEFT MOST EVERYTHING ELSE AS IT WAS. ON THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA IN EARNEST. THIS PORTENDS A DECREASE IN POPS AND WARMER TEMPS...WHICH ARE ALREADY IN GRIDS. BUT...GFS INDICATING A CONVECTIVELY AIDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING SOUTH INTO THE CWA FRIDAY. AM NOT SOLD ON THIS AT THIS TIME...SINCE THE BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WITHOUT THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...OMEGA BLOCK ENCOMPASSES THE CONUS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING PARKED OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATING EAST COAST END OF OMEGA BLOCK DEEPENING...THEN CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IF THIS COMES ABOUT...TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED AS SURFACE RIDGE BACK DOORS INTO THE CWA SUNDAY...AND ALONG WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD LOWER MAX TEMPS OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ALL THESE CHANGES ON SOMETHING SO SPECULATIVE. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 442 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .UPDATE... FORECAST UPDATE HAS JUST BEEN SENT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY. POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO ADDED. ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN TOWERING CUMULUS...WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING. SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1149 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005) SHORT TERM... UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRYLINE IS DRIFTING EAST...BULGING THROUGH LBB AND THEN ANGLING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST EAST OF MIDLAND. STRATUS ONCE AGAIN HAD TROUBLE DISSIPATING AND IS JUST NOW LEAVING THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. AS UPPER AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PER THE LATEST RUC...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WASH OUT AROUND INTERSTATE 20 EARLY TOMORROW...PER GFS. CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURE...PREFER THIS SOLUTION OVER ETA WHICH PUSHES COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH. WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW...HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THIS AREA. GFS IS SUGGESTING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW EVENING. CORRELATING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PROGD UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND GIVEN THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO HANDLE THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. IF WE DO HAVE THE FORMATION OF AN MCS OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY AND OUT OF THE HEARTLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE CAVEAT THAT DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DISTURBANCE OR TWO DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1149 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 .SHORT TERM... UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRYLINE IS DRIFTING EAST...BULGING THROUGH LBB AND THEN ANGLING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST EAST OF MIDLAND. STRATUS ONCE AGAIN HAD TROUBLE DISSIPATING AND IS JUST NOW LEAVING THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. AS UPPER AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PER THE LATEST RUC...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WASH OUT AROUND INTERSTATE 20 EARLY TOMORROW...PER GFS. CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURE...PREFER THIS SOLUTION OVER ETA WHICH PUSHES COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH. WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW...HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THIS AREA. GFS IS SUGGESTING AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW EVENING. CORRELATING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PROGD UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND GIVEN THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO HANDLE THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. IF WE DO HAVE THE FORMATION OF AN MCS OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY AND OUT OF THE HEARTLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE CAVEAT THAT DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DISTURBANCE OR TWO DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 70 94 70 93 / 10 10 20 10 SAN ANGELO 71 95 70 95 / 10 10 10 10 JUNCTION 71 95 69 94 / 10 0 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 99/15 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 320 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE AREA SHOULD BE GONE BY 6AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT ALONG MS RIVER. LATEST ETA AND RUC HAVE FRONT THRU IL AND NW IN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF FORECAST AREA. SOME MORNING SUN BUT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS DEVELOP AS LOW PULLS NE INTO WIS. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SUPPORT THUNDER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN AFTER THAT. COOL AIR AND CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST INTO WED BUT DESPITE MODERATELY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF FORECAST. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. DRYING OUT NICELY FOR A GLORIOUS FATHERS DAY WEEKEND. AFTER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUN AND IT SHOULD WARM UP NICELY THIS MORNING. BUT COOL AIR ADVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN. THEN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH WEST WINDS THERE WILL BE NO LAKE COOLING TODAY. WINDS TURNING NORTH LATE WED AFTERNOON...THEN LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALLSOPP && .AVIATION... FOR 100Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN THIS CYCLE IS DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ON GOING SEVERE WEATHER VCNTY PIA/SPI APPEARS ON PATH TO GRAZE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WARNING FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTHEEAST ILLINOIS TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT PATH. LATE AFTERNOON SOUNDING FROM DVN INDICATES STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THEIR AREA AND GIVEN SIMILARITY IN AIRMASS AND LACK OF CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS EXPECT THIS MAY WELL BE TRUE ACROSS MUCH/MOST OF NORHTERN ILLINOIS. TAFS WENT OUT JUST PRIOR TO LATEST WATCH ISSUANCE AND HUNG ONTO TO POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS 02Z-04Z BUT GIVEN REVISED THINKING AND LATEST BOX PLACEMENT THEAT MAY BE LESS THAN EARLIER CONSIDERED. SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIP IN TAFS WOULD OCCUR WITH FROPA TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SOUTH THIS EVENING TO WEST/WEST SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. SPEEDS TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS BUT INCREAST TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS. && .LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1245 AM EST TUE JUN 14 2005 .AVIATION... NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AT 05Z. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER AT BOTH SBN AND FWA TAFS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. EXPECT CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF STORMS TO REMAIN VFR. && .PREV FORECAST... SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE RUC40/NAM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN DEPICTED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED FROM CNTRL WISCONSIN...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. RUC40 AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A SFC TROF. ALSO...A WEAK S/WV ALOFT WAS LOCATED ABOVE THE SFC FEATURE. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS COMBINED WITH THESE LIFTING MECHANISMS...AND THUS HAVE RESULTED IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RUC40 FCSTS THE SFC TROF AND UPR LVL S/WV TO BE ALONG A SWRN MICHIGAN TO EXTREME NW OHIO AXIS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. AT THIS POINT...HAVE PENCILED IN 20 POPS IN THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION TO SEE IF THIS HAS TO BE RAISED. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A POTENT UPR LVL LOW CENTERED OVER NE NEBRASKA LIFTS NE INTO SE MINNESOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SPOKES OF S/WV ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND IT...SOME OF WHICH WILL PASSES ACRS ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A MODERATELY STRONG MID TO UPR LVL JET AROUND 90 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS S/WV ENERGY. THESE WX ELEMENTS WILL PROVIDE THE UPR DIVERGENCE. IN THE LOW LVLS...AN INCREASING LOW LVL JET WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. THE RESULT OF THE UPR DIV/LOW LVL CONV COUPLET WILL BE AN OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS ACRS WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE ENE TOWARD AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER INDIANA...THEY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE DUE TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE ACRS THE FCST AREA. HENCE...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL PLACE SEVERE WX WORDING IN THE ZONES. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY DAY BREAK TUESDAY. THUS...AM ONLY EXPECTING PERHAPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING HOURS (30 POP). AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. THE NAM FCSTS THIS FRONT TO BE NEAR THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER BY 18Z...AND JUST EAST OF THE CWFA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCD S/WV WITH THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHC WILL OCCUR ACRS THE EAST WITH THE LEAST IN THE WEST. WILL LAYER POPS FROM 50 EAST TO 30 WEST. SOME SEVERE WX IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPS...MET VALUES FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD...SO HAVE USED IT. USED THE NAM THICKNESS VALUES AT 21Z TUESDAY TO COME UP WITH A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACRS THE FCST AREA. THIS METHOD YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM LIKE A PINWHEEL. THIS MAY PRODUCE ADDITNL SHRA/TSRA'S TUE NIGHT AFTR CLD FNT PASSES. THE LAST OF SHWV'S W/ THIS SYS EFFECTING THE CWA WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON WED...REINTRODUCED POPS DURING THE DAY. MODELS STILL NOT GRASPING THE LONGER RANGE WELL. GFS DEPICTS A 500 MB LOW WAY TO FAR SOUTH AND WEST MID-LATE WEEK. NAM SHOWS TRIPLE POINT DVLPG BY 84 HRS OVER NEW ENGLD. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE WITH A JET MAX PUSHING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THU NIGHT...BUT NAM IN AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ON H50 LOW DVLPG FURTHER TO THE NW OVER SE ONTARIO. I CAN NOT SEE A CLOSED H50 LOW DVLP FURTHER SW OVER N OH WITH 100+KT JET MAX MOVG OVER CENTRL OH VLY AT 90HR AS 12Z GFS RUN FCSTS. WITH 85H AND 70H LOW OVER ALBANY AS GFS DEPICTS...A FURTHER NORTH SOLN MAKES MORE SENSE. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL NOT TREND COOLER LATE WEEK AS MAV AND MEX/MEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. VERY STRONG RIDGE WILL HOLD AND BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO S CTRL CANADA AS TROF DEEPENS OUT IN THE W PAC. WV CURNTLY SHOWS STRONG UPR JET STARTING TO DIG S-WARD NEAR ALEUTIAN ISL'S. THIS SETUP WILL LEAVE US HIGH AND DRY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVR CENTRAL CONUS...IGNORED GFS THINKING OF CLOSED LOW FORMING IN SE US. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...SKIP SHORT TERM...HICKMAN/SKIP LONG TERM...WAMSLEY/TH in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1215 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .DISCUSSION... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS PERSISTENT TRACKING SE ACROSS NE TX AND SW AR...BUT HAS SLOWED A BIT IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. IN ANY CASE...STORM OVER SOUTHERN HUNT COUNTY IS PROPAGATING SE ALONG A SE MOVING OUTFLOW...WHICH IS BISECTING THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLIER OK CONVECTION...WHICH MAY INCREASE COVERAGE A BIT OVER WESTERN E TX. EVEN NEW PROGS ARE CLUELESS WITH THIS CONVECTION...MAYBE THE RUC THETA-E ANALYSIS WILL WORK...PLACING RIDGING OVER MUCH OF NE TX INTO SW AR AND NW LA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FLOW VEERS ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FALL APART LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVER E TX/SW AR/NW LA...AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LFK AND MLU...WHILE UPPING TO LOW CHANCE FOR ELD ZONES. ALSO LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE AND TOOK OUT SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING FOR NW ZONES...AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN S. UPDATE ALREADY OUT. && .UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 95 72 94 / 50 20 20 20 MLU 71 94 70 90 / 20 20 20 20 DEQ 69 90 66 90 / 30 30 20 10 TXK 72 93 70 93 / 50 30 20 10 ELD 72 94 69 90 / 30 20 20 10 TYR 72 93 72 94 / 50 20 20 20 GGG 72 94 72 94 / 50 20 20 20 LFK 72 94 72 95 / 20 20 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 15 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 413 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS TODAY AND WHEN WILL PCPN EXIT THE AREA WED/THU. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MN. SHRA/TSRA ARE ROTATING AROUND THE E SIDE OF CIRCULATION OVER WI/ERN MN. SHIELD OF STEADIER SHRA/RAIN IS ON THE W SIDE OF LOW ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS. SHRA/TSRA OVER WI ARE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU SE MN...AND THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOVING INTO UPPER MI THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE W HALF. 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION (KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.63 INCHES OR 190PCT OF NORMAL). WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...DEFINITELY LOOKING LIKE A WET DAY TODAY AS CENTER OF MIDLEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN WI AND POSSIBLY OVER FAR SCNTRL UPPER THIS EVENING. TOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR TO INCREASE SFC BASED INSTABILITY. WITH TRACK OF MIDLEVEL LOW GENERALLY JUST S OF FCST AREA...THERE SHOULD PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. ON THE OTHERHAND...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN REVEALED ONLY SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER TO THE E AND NE OF MIDLEVEL LOW TRACK UNTIL CONVECTION TOOK OFF. IN ADDITION...SFC OBS AND 11-3.9MICRON IMAGERY ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER NEAR MIDLEVEL LOW. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE THE OPPORTUNITY IS THERE FOR A COUPLE OF HRS...MAYBE MORE...OF PARTIAL SUN DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING WITH A FEW PROBABLY BECOMING SVR. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER FCST AREA MODIFIED FOR SFC T/TD OF 70/62F YIELD SBCAPE ANYWHERE FROM 500-1100J/KG WITH HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY OVER THE SW...CLOSER TO MIDLEVEL LOW. IF THERE IS MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SBCAPE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HIGHER. FORTUNATELY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FALLS OFF THRU THE DAY AS WIND FIELDS LIGHTEN WITH APPROACH OF MIDLEVEL LOW. AFTN VALUES ARE GENERALLY 10-15KT W...BUT STILL UP TO 25-30KT E EARLY IN THE AFTN BEFORE FALLING TO 15-20KT LATE. SO...EXPECTATION WOULD BE FOR PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH HAIL THE MAIN SVR THREAT AS WET BULB ZERO/FREEZING LEVELS FALL. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS GENERALLY BTWN 9-10KFT AGL. WHILE SHRA WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE WARRANTED AS JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT SCT/NUMEROUS SHRA TO LINGER THRU THE OVERNIGHT AS MIDLEVEL LOW ONLY REACHES NRN LWR MI BY DAYBREAK. THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE QUITE A BIT OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS BECOMING NRLY...FOG MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE TONIGHT. ON WED...GOING FCST LOOKS REASONABLE HOLDING ONTO SHRA CHC IN THE MORNING AS UPPER MI REMAINS IN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THRU THE AFTN...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OF THE COLUMN IN THE AFTN. 700MB DWPT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE TO 15-30C...HIGHEST W. WILL DROP PCPN IN THE AFTN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR ERN FCST AREA AS THAT AREA DOES NOT GET INTO THE STRONGEST DRYING. WILL BE A COOL DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE KEWEENAW EWD WITH BRISK NRLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORELINE. FCST WED NIGHT INTO THU IS LESS CERTAIN NOW. SHARPENING MID/UPPER RIDGE INTO SCNTRL CANADA FORCES SHORTWAVE NOW OVER HUDSON BAY ALMOST DUE S...REFORMING/DEEPENING MIDLEVEL LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO NOT TOO FAR E OF THE SOO. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER THE FAR E ON WED NIGHT...THOUGH BELIEVE IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS BACK INTO THAT AREA. GIVEN EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MIDLEVEL LOW AND A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND IT ACROSS UPPER MI...HAVE INTRODUCED SHRA CHC ON THU OVER ABOUT THE E HALF OF FCST AREA...RANGING FROM 30 CNTRL TO 40 E. WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA MENTION OVER THE W AS IT APPEARS THAT AREA WILL BE W OF THE DEEP MOISTURE. MAY TURN OUT TO BE QUITE A MISERABLE MID JUNE DAY NCNTRL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...A GUSTY N WIND OFF THE LAKE AND A FEW SHRA. HARD TO BELIEVE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON UNSEASONABLY CHILLY 850MB TEMPS OF ONLY 1C OVER THE ERN FCST AREA AT 72HRS INTO MODEL RUN (00Z FRI). EVEN THE UKMET SHOWS 1C 850MB TEMPS...JUST EARLIER AT 12Z THU. HAVE A FEELING 1C IS A BIT EXTREME...BUT EVEN SO...IT WILL BE CHILLY. WILL LWR MAX TEMPS THU TO ONLY THE LOW 50S NEAR THE LAKE NCNTRL AND ONLY AROUND 60 FARTHER INLAND OVER THE E. STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS NUMBERS OVER THE INTERIOR W (MID/UPPER 60S). WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS INTO THU NIGHT E HALF AND SHOOT FOR A DRY DAY FRI AS MIDLEVEL LOW EDGES SE. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL KEEPS MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL/ERN LAKES THRU SAT WHICH WOULD PROBABLY REQUIRE CHC POPS OVER THE E FRI AND PERHAPS EVEN SAT. IT'S THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS THAT RIGHT NOW...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH IF LATER GLOBAL MODELS TREND THAT WAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM PERIOD SHAPING UP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO A LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER CNTRL CONUS. COULD BE ONE OR TWO HOT DAYS NEXT WEEK AS THERE HAS BEEN DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY SUGGESTING 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER LAKES IN WSW FLOW (IDEAL FOR HOT WEATHER HERE). && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UPPER MS VALLEY TO TRACK INTO THE GRTLKS AND OPEN UP THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AT NOSE OF 30 KT LLJ IN SWRLY FLO AHD OF THIS UPPER LOW. AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES AWAY FROM FROM ITS GENESIS REGION INTO MORE STABLE AIR IT IS WEAKENING. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO SHOWER IN THE DAY AND CVG TAFS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES DRY. EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TDA. SBCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG DEVELOP TDA IN THE UNSBL AMS AHD OF APPROACHING CDFNT. HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO TSTMS THIS AFTN AHD OF THE CDFTN. DRY SLOT TO WORK IN THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARD INDIANA WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING BETTER INSTABILITIES REMAINING ACROSS INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN DROPPING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WE HEAD EAST INTO OHIO. THUS...GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST TOWARD OUR FA. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT...THINK THAT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FA SO WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY THERE. WITH LITTLE ELSE GOING ON ACROSS OUR AREA ATTM WILL REMOVE EVENING POPS ACROSS REMAINDER FA EXPECT THE FAR WEST WHERE WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT JUST IN CASE ACTIVITY OFF TO OUR WEST HOLDS TOGETHER. THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MOST PART. CLOUDS WERE DECREASING WEST TO EAST...AND SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...THE NAM BRINGS A WEAK S/W INTO THE FAR WEST LATE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS FEATURE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN NEARLY ZERO POPS WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL COMPROMISE AND CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST LATE. FOR TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE...AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND SEVERAL SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS...WITH IS ALSO A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE POPS. BY CONSENSUS...THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... AFT TUES EVNG FROPA...UPR LO TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACRS GRT LKS AND AFFECT FIRST PART OF EXTENDED. LAST COUPLE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH UPR LO...LEAVING IT WOBBLING AROUND IN GRT LKS AND OH VLY THRU FRI. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND...PROGRESSING UPR LO INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI-SAT. HAVE THUS GONE WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE CONSENSUS SOLN...LIMITING PCPN CHANCES TO WED AND THURS AS UPR TROF AND SVRL WEAK MID LVL VORTS SWINGS THRU REGION. GFS/NAM BOTH INDCG LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. APPEARS THERE COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS BOTH WED AND THURS THAT WOULD HELP TO LIMIT EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. AFTER THURS...SFC HI WILL BUILD IN FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN M70S ON WED/THURS RISING TO L80S BY SUN/MON AS CNTRL PLAINS UPR RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. DRY NRLY FLO THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL ENSURE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS THAN THAT EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST 7 TO 10 DAYS. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 155 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .AVIATION(06Z-06Z)... S/WV MOVG THRU NE OH ATTM AND WDLY SCT SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED AND WAS MOVG E. ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERS IN OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY MRNG AND ATTM ACTIVITY OVER IL MAY JUST BRUSH EXTRME NW OH NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT I AM WATCHING IT. THIS AREA SHOULD GIVE US THE BOUNDARY THAT CAUSED THE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. DYNAMICS ARE IMPRESSIVE...THE SHEAR AND INSTABLILIY AND PARAMETERS FOR DOWNBURTS. ATTM HAV GUST TO 40KTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF'S. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICLY AROUND NOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY E..A SQUALL LINE. CDFNT MOVS THRU DURING THE LT AFTN AND EARLY EVE. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) ADDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS S/WV WAS MOVG THRU AND KICKING OFF SOME WDLY SCT ACTIVITY IN THE UNSTBL AIRMASS. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT) RADAR SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING LOOPS SHOW MCS MOVING TWRD WRN OH FROM IL THIS EVG. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS INSTBY INCREASING INTO WRN OH BTWN NOW AND 09Z WITH LI'S FROM 3- TO -5 BY 09Z. CAPES ALSO FCST TO RISE TO ABOUT 1200 J/KG. CRNTLY HWVR CAPES JUST AHD OF THE CONVECTION ARE ABOUT 2400 TO 2800 J/KG AND LI'S ARE CLOSER TO -7. HAVE ALSO LOOKED AT MID LVL LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN EWD OR SLIGHTLY ESE MOVEMENT. DO BLV TSTMS WL WKN AS THEY APCH THE AREA AND WILL PLACE CHC POPS INTO THE FCST TO COVER PSBLTY OF CONVECTION REACHING INTO THE AREA. LIGHTNING TRENDS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST WKNG ON THE N SIDE WITH MORE CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS CONFINED ON THE SE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CRNT TIMING WOULD BRING IT INTO THE WRN CWA ARND OR JUST AFTER 2AM. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYG ALF WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST POTENTIAL SO WL WORD PSBL GUSTY WINDS WITH TSTMS. NO OTHER MAJ CHGS. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)... THREE REGIMES GOING ON AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NW PA BEING WARM WITH WRAP AROUND STRATOCU INVADING AND A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR MAYBE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING. MIDDLE SECTIONS OF FCST AREA FROM YTOWN TO SANDUSKY AND MANSFIELD ARE CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE SUN IS COMING BACK OUT ACROSS NW OH. NAM/ETA PRETTY AGRESSIVE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MIDWEST ACROSS NW OH. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF HEAT AND THE EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DRIVING THE ACTIVITY I HAVE A FEELING IT WILL STAY WEST OF FCST AREA. WL MENTION JUST A SMALL CHANCE OVERNIGHT NW OH. INITIAL SFC TROUGH OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS FCST AREA TUESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DESTABILIZATION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH AND IT IS NOT CLEAR TO ME EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS STILL PUSHING 70 THAT THERE WILL EVETUALLY BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL USE HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY TO DESCRIBE THREAT. WL MENTION "CHANCE OF SEVERE" IN ZONES AS NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE INSTABILITY BUT SOME SHEAR WITH DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER FOR A WHILE EARLY TUE NGT AND THEN WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WED AS ACTUAL PUSH OF COOLER SURFACE AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST. FCST TEMPS ARE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND NAM AS IT COULD BE A BIT WARMER TOMORROW THAT GFS SHOWS BEFORE THE STORMS DEVELOP AND THEN IT MAY COOL DOWN A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS ADVERTISES WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... UNSEASONABLE UPPER LOW TO DROP SE ACROSS E GRTLKS. DETAILS NOT CLEAR AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST SYSTEM WILL MOVE. NEW NAM/ETA TRENDING TOWARD LOW MOVING SE ACROS NEW YORK STATE AND SLIINDG EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WHILE 12Z GFS BROUGHT LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OHIO. THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO STRONG AND NCEP FAVORS TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER NE. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW WITH THE LAST HOPEFULLY ON FRIDAY SO CHANCE OF RANDOM SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY SHIFTING FARTHER ENE LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIP FLOP FROM BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. IF IT WERE TO BE OVERCAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY TEMPS COULD HOLD IN THE 60S BUT WILL NOT FCST AT THIS TIME SINCE EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF MID JUNE SUNSHINE GOES A LONG WAY AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO 70 OR LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE DRY BY THE WEEKEND WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...WCR SHORT TERM UPDATE...TK SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KIELTYKA oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... BAND OF SHOWERS AND A LONE THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER AND BALD HEAD ISLAND AT TIME... APPEAR TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LAND BREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRATUS KEEPING TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH SO FAR TODAY...BUT AS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOP...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH ONLY BRUNSWICK CO BEACHES LIKELY TO STAY BELOW 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 100 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL REALLY MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES NEARING 3 KFT. AND SO DESPITE A WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG TWO SURFACE BASED FEATURES. ONE OF THOSE...THE SEABREEZE WHICH WILL BE SHARP...BUT CONFINED TO WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES...EXCEPT BRUNSWICK CO WHERE IT WILL PENETRATE UP TO 10 MILES INLAND. THE OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALIGNED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR. && .MARINE... ISOLATED SHOWERS SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC SHOWING MAINLY SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 2 TO 3 FEET SEAS AS LATEST WAVE WATCH SHOWING 3 TO 4 FT AT ILM01 AND ILM02 AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECT TO SEA 2 FEET NEAR SHORE. && .AVIATION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING A WEAK WEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE NOTED AT 7H NORTH OF ILM. SHOWERS AT 12Z IN THE VICINITY OF MYR/CRE AND SOUTHWEST OF ILM MOVING EAST. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE IFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THINNING. IFR CEILINGS AT FLO WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 13Z THEN VFR AFTER 15Z. AFTERWARD...WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF FLO...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED FROM 18-22Z WITH CB VICINITY. FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO WEAK WEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH CAPES IN THE 2500 J/KG RANGE...THE COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR/SHOWERS/CB VICINITY THROUGH 20Z. A DRYING TREND INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANING WITH TIME SO THINK PRECIPITATION WILL NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z. FOG EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE IFR CEILINGS AT FLO WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJD AVIATION...MRR MARINE...HAWKINS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1105 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .UPDATE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANVIL WARMING DURING THE LAST HOUR. KDYX WSR-88D DATA INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING ALONG A SWEETWATER TO ANSON LINE. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SENT AN UPDATE TO REFLECT BEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THEN...SHIFT TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...ADJUSTED WINDS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 211 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OUT FLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I-20. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAIL END OF THE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ABOUT TO GO THROUGH BROWN COUNTY. NAM IS VERIFYING THE BEST THIS MORNING AND WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THIS FORECAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO RE-FIRE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEART LAND. IN ADDITION...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS WELL. INITIALLY THOUGH ABOUT TAKING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LITTLE TO NO CAP...STORMS COULD FIRE THERE AS WELL AND THEREFORE LEFT A 20 POP OTHERWISE 30 POPS WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS AROUND. BY 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MOST EVERYTHING SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...AND KEPT A SLIGHT POP UP THERE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING SOMETHING MAYBE FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20S JUST TO BE SAFE. BY WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS AS DEVELOPING RIDGE TAKES HOLD IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD START TO HEAT THINGS UP AS SINKING AIR AND MORE DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THINGS AS GREEN AS THEY ARE. ALSO THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPING THE RIDGE. LONG TERM... WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THRU FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN THE DRIEST OF THE AIRMASS. AROUND MONDAY...RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING US ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEATHER MAKERS START TO COME AT US FROM THE EAST. ONE FEATURE IS FORECAST POSSIBLY TO COME AT US JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 23/HUBER tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1031 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT DRAPED ACRS NRN CWFA WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACRS CENTRAL PB. LOW LEVEL MSTR ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY IS HIGH FOR THE PB DWPNT OF 68 AT KMAF AND 60 AT KMRF. MODELS DON/T HAVE GREAT HANDLE ON MSTR ESPECIALLY ACRS TRANS PECOS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC MST AXIS EXTENDS NWD THRU THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. 12Z KMAF SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR L90S/U60S INDICATES CAPES ABOVE AROUND 5000 J/KG. QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT AVAILABLE ENERGY WILL ABLE TO BE REALIZED. DWPNTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MORE IN THE 55-60 RANGE AND 3HR MSL PRESSURE RISES STILL NEAR 3MB AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NE EXPECT THAT FRONT STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO MOVE FARTHER S AT LEAST IN S AND W PB DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT PW/S FCST BY RUC/NAM ARE A LITTLE UNDERDONE AND HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY TRANS PECOS. THUS HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO REFLECT HIER POPS AND HEAVY RAIN IN SWRN CWFA. BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANCE OF MSTR/INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCD WITH STORMS THE NE WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS AND ADDITIONAL UPDATES EARLY THIS PM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005/ SHORT TERM... THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRAPED OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND THE ROLE THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ON CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE DO SEE THAT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES HAVE WANED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT IS UNKNOWN HOW MUCH OF THIS DECREASE IS THE RESULT OF THE DIURNAL PRESSURE OSCILLATION. IN ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS ALONG ROUGHLY AN ARTESIA...PECOS...MCCAMEY...TO BIG LAKE LINE BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE NAM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE PARAMETERS...WE BELIEVE THE NGM IS OVERSTATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... SBCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PECOS AND SOUTHERN REEVES COUNTIES. GIVEN THE WEAK STORM RELATIVE WINDS FORECAST BY THE MODELS IT APPEARS THAT PULSE MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PREFERRED CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAY FAVOR HYBRID DOWNBURSTS... AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PROPAGATE TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. WE DO EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY DIMINISHES AND COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONGEAL...THEREBY LIMITING SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY FURTHER. MEANWHILE...THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER...POP...AND QPF GRIDS WERE DRAWN ACCORDING TO THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL EXPLAINED ABOVE. DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS FAVOR A BLEND OF THE NAM AND NAM GUIDANCE...WHILE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS REFLECT A BLEND OF THE NAM AND NAM GUIDANCE MIXED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKY GRIDS ARE AN EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS IN CLOSE...THEN CORRELATED TO THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LONG TERM... RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK STILL ANTICIPATED WITH OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. ON WEDNESDAY MENTIONED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN MODEST INSTABILITY IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME MAY BRING A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF CONVECTION IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS IN EXTREME WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO NEAR WEAK LEE TROUGH DUE TO VERY INTENSE HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BOOST FROM MOUNTAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE DRYLINE MAY SHIFT FURTHER EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE WEST. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WENT WITH AN ISOLATED POP IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS IN THE MUCH WEAKER 700 MILLIBAR FLOW AND DRYLINE GETTING BOOST FROM HIGHER TERRAIN. REMOVED POPS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AS WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE TOUGH FOR CAP TO BREAK UNDER THE RIDGE. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS ON MONDAY IN UPSLOPE FLOW BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING THIS FAR OUT. BY NEXT TUESDAY SIGNS ARE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTH AND WEST...ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD TEXAS. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY WITH CORRESPONDING DECREASING TEMPERATURES. DISTURBANCES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FROM THE EAST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED AVIATION SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM. TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY. APPEARS GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA. BNDRY WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z. PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. MID LVL S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP. BEST SHOT AT PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS. LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. 12Z NAM INDCG 500- 1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS. PCPN WILL END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF REGION. UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN. LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN. INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA. TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM TEMPS. FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM. HIGHS IN U70S TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. RYAN && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MAINTAINED A 20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION. DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO GRT LKS AND OH VLY. MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG 500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M. IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S. RYAN && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... CONVECTION CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS TAF SITES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THIS TIME. .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .UPDATE... BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS...APPEARS SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. MAIN MCS CORE WITH THE HIGHEST LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS SHIFTED TO A POSITION ON THE WESTERN NOLAN COUNTY LINE JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY A CATEGORY AND TO ADJUST POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1105 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005) UPDATE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANVIL WARMING DURING THE LAST HOUR. KDYX WSR-88D DATA INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING ALONG A SWEETWATER TO ANSON LINE. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SENT AN UPDATE TO REFLECT BEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THEN...SHIFT TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...ADJUSTED WINDS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 211 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OUT FLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I-20. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAIL END OF THE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ABOUT TO GO THROUGH BROWN COUNTY. NAM IS VERIFYING THE BEST THIS MORNING AND WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THIS FORECAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO RE-FIRE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEART LAND. IN ADDITION...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS WELL. INITIALLY THOUGH ABOUT TAKING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LITTLE TO NO CAP...STORMS COULD FIRE THERE AS WELL AND THEREFORE LEFT A 20 POP OTHERWISE 30 POPS WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS AROUND. BY 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MOST EVERYTHING SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...AND KEPT A SLIGHT POP UP THERE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING SOMETHING MAYBE FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20S JUST TO BE SAFE. BY WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS AS DEVELOPING RIDGE TAKES HOLD IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD START TO HEAT THINGS UP AS SINKING AIR AND MORE DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THINGS AS GREEN AS THEY ARE. ALSO THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPING THE RIDGE. LONG TERM... WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THRU FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN THE DRIEST OF THE AIRMASS. AROUND MONDAY...RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEAVING US ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEATHER MAKERS START TO COME AT US FROM THE EAST. ONE FEATURE IS FORECAST POSSIBLY TO COME AT US JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$ 23/HUBER tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 550 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED FOR WATCH NUMBER 483. NOT MUCH CHNAGE TO THE FORECAST NEEDED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA. RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS APPEARS AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH HERE. OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS. LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE FIGURED. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (18Z TO 18Z)... (ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) AVIATION... OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING IN FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. OTHER THAN A FEW POP UP STORMS...HAVE TIMED THE FIRST LINE TO APPROACH HTS AROUND 2030Z...AND PKB MORE TOWARDS 21Z. AS THESE STORMS NEAR...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE 40KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP BKN MID DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE BREAKS FIGURED SOUTH OF PKB AND CKB. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WATCH BOX 480 SVR ISSUED JUST AS I WAS READY TO ISSUE SHORT TERM UPDATE SO TIMING WORKED WELL. ILN SOUNDING SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND CU ALREADY GOING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. CAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ON LOW 70S DEW POINTS...AND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER DIV AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MAKE SEVERE ALL BUT A SLAM DUNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH WET BULB HIGH AND SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THREAT NEAR HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR LOOKS GOOD AS MEAN WIND AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. CHANGED WEATHER TERMS TO COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STABILITY IS LOST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE ON TRACK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TRM wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA. RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS. THIS APPEARS AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH HERE. OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS. LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS. TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE FIGURED. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (18Z TO 18Z)... (ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) AVIATION... OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING IN FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. OTHER THAN A FEW POP UP STORMS...HAVE TIMED THE FIRST LINE TO APPROACH HTS AROUND 2030Z...AND PKB MORE TOWARDS 21Z. AS THESE STORMS NEAR...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE THE 40KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP BKN MID DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE BREAKS FIGURED SOUTH OF PKB AND CKB. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WATCH BOX 480 SVR ISSUED JUST AS I WAS READY TO ISSUE SHORT TERM UPDATE SO TIMING WORKED WELL. ILN SOUNDING SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND CU ALREADY GOING UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. CAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ON LOW 70S DEW POINTS...AND 35-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER DIV AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MAKE SEVERE ALL BUT A SLAM DUNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH WET BULB HIGH AND SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THREAT NEAR HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR LOOKS GOOD AS MEAN WIND AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST. CHANGED WEATHER TERMS TO COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STABILITY IS LOST BEFORE DAWN. TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE ON TRACK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TRM wv