Cr Pr 2-2 (7-99) a Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 12, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Wheat Production Down 9 Percent from 1998 Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.67 billion bushels. This is up 4 percent from last month but down 11 percent from 1998. The U.S. yield is forecast at 47.0 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from last month and a new record high. Hard Red Winter, at 1.03 billion bushels, is up from a month ago by 5 percent. White Winter is down for the second consecutive month and now totals 199 million bushels. Soft Red Winter is up 6 percent from the last forecast, at 443 million bushels. Durum wheat production is forecast at 132 million bushels, down 6 percent from 1998. The U.S. yield is forecast at 32.7 bushels per acre, 5.1 bushels less than last year. Other Spring wheat production is forecast at 527 million bushels, down less than 1 percent from 1998. The U.S. yield is forecast at 35.3 bushels per acre, 0.4 bushels higher than last year. Of this total, 475 million is Hard Red Spring wheat, down 2 percent from last season. All oranges production forecast for 1998-99 is 9.74 million tons, down 1 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year's record large crop of 13.7 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast is 186 million boxes (8.36 million tons), a reduction of 1 percent from the June forecast and 24 percent less than the record large 244 million boxes (11.0 million tons) utilized last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida remain at 112 million boxes (5.04 million tons), 20 percent less than last season. Florida's Valencia forecast is reduced to 73.7 million boxes (3.32 million tons), down 2 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last season's utilization. California's all orange production forecast of 34.0 million boxes (1.28 million tons) remains unchanged from the previous forecast and is down 51 percent from the 1997-98 utilization of 69.0 million boxes (2.59 million tons). Picking of the Valencia orange crop has slowed due to summer competition from stone fruits. Southern California growers, who were not adversely affected by the December freeze, have been picking a good quality Valencia crop. Arizona's all orange production forecast of 1.20 million boxes (45,000 tons) remains unchanged from the previous forecast, but is 20 percent higher than last season. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1998-99 season is final at a record high 1.63 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The previous record of 1.58 gallons occurred in 1992-93. Early and midseason oranges attained a final yield of 1.58 gallons, surpassing the previous record of 1.52 gallons set in 1992-93. At 1.75 gallons per box, the Valencia portion of the crop has exceeded last season's record of 1.72 gallons per box. This report was approved on July 12, 1999. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Michael V. Dunn Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Almonds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Apricots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Cherries, Sweet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Cherries, Tart . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Citrus Fruits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Grapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Oats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Peaches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Tobacco. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Walnuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Wheat, Head Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Wheat, by Class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Wheat, Other Spring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Wheat, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Oats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : 1,000 Acres --- Bushels -- ------- 1,000 Bushels ------ : AL : 17 20 48.0 50.0 960 816 1,000 AR : 9 13 80.0 68.0 750 720 884 CA : 30 25 75.0 80.0 2,400 2,250 2,000 CO : 25 20 70.0 59.0 1,700 1,750 1,180 GA : 25 25 53.0 55.0 1,680 1,325 1,375 ID : 30 25 75.0 73.0 1,575 2,250 1,825 IL : 70 65 56.0 69.0 5,550 3,920 4,485 IN : 30 25 50.0 60.0 1,800 1,500 1,500 IA : 185 200 59.0 68.0 16,790 10,915 13,600 KS : 60 70 45.0 58.0 4,720 2,700 4,060 ME : 24 24 73.0 75.0 1,679 1,752 1,800 MD : 7 7 50.0 54.0 385 350 378 MI : 105 85 46.0 60.0 4,880 4,830 5,100 MN : 310 350 63.0 59.0 17,400 19,530 20,650 MO : 13 20 47.0 57.0 1,525 611 1,140 MT : 60 80 54.0 60.0 3,850 3,240 4,800 NE : 95 75 56.0 67.0 5,850 5,320 5,025 NY : 105 80 62.0 55.0 5,850 6,510 4,400 NC : 20 30 58.0 67.0 1,600 1,160 2,010 ND : 420 390 62.0 60.0 18,700 26,040 23,400 OH : 100 100 65.0 75.0 6,660 6,500 7,500 OK : 25 30 41.0 40.0 1,760 1,025 1,200 OR : 35 20 110.0 93.0 2,852 3,850 1,860 PA : 160 155 53.0 55.0 8,990 8,480 8,525 SC : 25 30 45.0 50.0 1,400 1,125 1,500 SD : 300 210 67.0 64.0 14,850 20,100 13,440 TX : 130 110 53.0 44.0 6,760 6,890 4,840 UT : 9 9 70.0 70.0 720 630 630 WA : 15 15 75.0 70.0 1,360 1,125 1,050 WV : 4 3 50.0 48.0 200 200 144 WI : 300 300 61.0 60.0 20,160 18,300 18,000 WY : 22 30 64.0 65.0 1,890 1,408 1,950 : US : 2,765 2,641 60.4 61.1 167,246 167,122 161,251 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : 1,000 Acres --- Bushels --- ------- 1,000 Bushels ------ : AZ : 56 62 110.0 114.0 6,834 6,160 7,068 CA : 125 130 60.0 60.0 8,550 7,500 7,800 CO : 82 88 115.0 108.0 9,612 9,430 9,504 DE : 30 26 60.0 82.0 3,115 1,800 2,132 ID : 760 690 78.0 78.0 59,250 59,280 53,820 KS : 8 14 35.0 31.0 336 280 434 KY : 7 8 63.0 86.0 490 441 688 MD : 54 50 64.0 80.0 4,000 3,456 4,000 MI : 26 21 50.0 60.0 1,276 1,300 1,260 MN : 415 185 55.0 55.0 23,460 22,825 10,175 MT : 1,200 1,150 48.0 53.0 60,950 57,600 60,950 NE : 8 4 50.0 41.0 459 400 164 NV : 4 4 100.0 95.0 500 400 380 NJ : 4 4 58.0 71.0 296 232 284 NC : 20 19 57.0 75.0 1,360 1,140 1,425 ND : 1,930 1,360 55.0 50.0 101,250 106,150 68,000 OK : 5 3 47.0 39.0 210 235 117 OR : 130 135 62.0 62.0 8,004 8,060 8,370 PA : 75 70 67.0 68.0 4,556 5,025 4,760 SC : 3 2 47.0 60.0 180 141 120 SD : 95 74 48.0 47.0 4,560 4,560 3,478 TX : 5 10 43.0 46.0 235 215 460 UT : 85 85 83.0 80.0 7,980 7,055 6,800 VA : 70 60 61.0 84.0 4,920 4,270 5,040 WA : 520 490 65.0 55.0 35,520 33,800 26,950 WI : 65 65 52.0 52.0 3,575 3,380 3,380 WY : 85 85 86.0 86.0 8,400 7,310 7,310 : US : 5,867 4,894 60.1 60.3 359,878 352,445 294,869 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Bushels -- -------- 1,000 Bushels ------- : AL : 85 100 42.0 48.0 3,780 3,570 4,800 AZ : 152 83 104.2 94.6 8,775 15,840 7,853 AR : 900 870 51.0 56.0 39,360 45,900 48,720 CA : 555 455 69.5 79.7 41,680 38,550 36,250 CO : 2,610 2,452 39.7 39.7 90,100 103,710 97,240 DE : 73 73 51.0 60.0 5,329 3,723 4,380 FL : 13 9 43.0 40.0 663 559 360 GA : 240 225 43.0 44.0 15,400 10,320 9,900 ID : 1,280 1,350 80.0 75.5 113,830 102,410 101,960 IL : 1,200 1,020 48.0 61.0 66,490 57,600 62,220 IN : 650 510 55.0 65.0 36,540 35,750 33,150 IA : 32 34 40.0 43.0 1,050 1,280 1,462 KS : 10,100 9,200 49.0 46.0 501,400 494,900 423,200 KY : 550 430 45.0 60.0 22,680 24,750 25,800 LA : 90 110 44.0 47.0 4,255 3,960 5,170 MD : 215 200 50.0 60.0 14,280 10,750 12,000 MI : 570 600 54.0 58.0 32,240 30,780 34,800 MN : 1,982 2,218 40.6 36.8 77,300 80,444 81,544 MS : 150 165 45.0 50.0 7,525 6,750 8,250 MO : 1,250 920 46.0 52.0 58,320 57,500 47,840 MT : 5,280 5,410 32.0 33.6 181,540 168,790 182,040 NE : 1,800 1,850 46.0 48.0 70,300 82,800 88,800 NV : 14 15 88.6 98.3 1,875 1,240 1,475 NJ : 44 35 52.0 54.0 2,280 2,288 1,890 NM : 265 270 30.0 35.0 9,975 7,950 9,450 NY : 130 125 54.0 54.0 7,280 7,020 6,750 NC : 680 580 41.0 47.0 34,170 27,880 27,260 ND : 9,610 9,098 32.3 30.6 269,290 310,650 278,780 OH : 1,160 1,030 64.0 66.0 68,670 74,240 67,980 OK : 5,100 4,300 39.0 34.0 169,600 198,900 146,200 OR : 885 783 65.0 49.6 60,390 57,490 38,862 PA : 190 190 51.0 52.0 9,100 9,690 9,880 SC : 240 220 32.0 41.0 15,000 7,680 9,020 SD : 3,294 2,949 36.7 38.8 98,013 120,884 114,282 TN : 370 310 41.0 57.0 16,200 15,170 17,670 TX : 3,900 3,400 35.0 36.0 118,900 136,500 122,400 UT : 173 174 51.1 53.3 8,742 8,834 9,280 VA : 245 240 45.0 58.0 17,420 11,025 13,920 WA : 2,565 2,290 61.4 55.1 165,120 157,425 126,240 WV : 8 8 57.0 50.0 486 456 400 WI : 142 127 53.8 55.5 8,531 7,635 7,050 WY : 210 189 32.3 34.1 7,587 6,790 6,450 : US : 59,002 54,617 43.2 42.7 2,481,466 2,550,383 2,332,978 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Jun 1 : Jul 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels --- : AL : 85 100 42.0 48.0 48.0 3,570 4,800 AZ : 8 8 90.0 85.0 91.0 720 728 AR : 900 870 51.0 54.0 56.0 45,900 48,720 CA : 380 370 60.0 75.0 75.0 22,800 27,750 CO : 2,550 2,400 39.0 37.0 39.0 99,450 93,600 DE : 73 73 51.0 58.0 60.0 3,723 4,380 FL : 13 9 43.0 40.0 40.0 559 360 GA : 240 225 43.0 46.0 44.0 10,320 9,900 ID : 770 710 82.0 76.0 76.0 63,140 53,960 IL : 1,200 1,020 48.0 55.0 61.0 57,600 62,220 IN : 650 510 55.0 60.0 65.0 35,750 33,150 IA : 32 34 40.0 43.0 43.0 1,280 1,462 KS : 10,100 9,200 49.0 43.0 46.0 494,900 423,200 KY : 550 430 45.0 55.0 60.0 24,750 25,800 LA : 90 110 44.0 43.0 47.0 3,960 5,170 MD : 215 200 50.0 55.0 60.0 10,750 12,000 MI : 570 600 54.0 56.0 58.0 30,780 34,800 MN : 57 59 27.0 28.0 28.0 1,539 1,652 MS : 150 165 45.0 50.0 50.0 6,750 8,250 MO : 1,250 920 46.0 49.0 52.0 57,500 47,840 MT : 1,250 970 39.0 40.0 42.0 48,750 40,740 NE : 1,800 1,850 46.0 42.0 48.0 82,800 88,800 NV : 6 10 100.0 90.0 100.0 600 1,000 NJ : 44 35 52.0 54.0 54.0 2,288 1,890 NM : 265 270 30.0 30.0 35.0 7,950 9,450 NY : 130 125 54.0 56.0 54.0 7,020 6,750 NC : 680 580 41.0 44.0 47.0 27,880 27,260 ND : 60 48 35.0 32.0 35.0 2,100 1,680 OH : 1,160 1,030 64.0 62.0 66.0 74,240 67,980 OK : 5,100 4,300 39.0 33.0 34.0 198,900 146,200 OR : 790 630 67.0 58.0 51.0 52,930 32,130 PA : 190 190 51.0 52.0 52.0 9,690 9,880 SC : 240 220 32.0 43.0 41.0 7,680 9,020 SD : 1,420 1,260 43.0 42.0 44.0 61,060 55,440 TN : 370 310 41.0 50.0 57.0 15,170 17,670 TX : 3,900 3,400 35.0 33.0 36.0 136,500 122,400 UT : 150 145 50.0 50.0 52.0 7,500 7,540 VA : 245 240 45.0 58.0 58.0 11,025 13,920 WA : 2,100 1,670 65.0 62.0 60.0 136,500 100,200 WV : 8 8 57.0 54.0 50.0 456 400 WI : 135 120 55.0 57.0 57.0 7,425 6,840 WY : 200 185 32.0 33.0 34.0 6,400 6,290 : US : 40,126 35,609 46.9 44.7 47.0 1,880,605 1,673,222 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Jun 1 : Jul 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AZ : 144 75 105.0 95.0 95.0 15,120 7,125 CA : 175 85 90.0 95.0 100.0 15,750 8,500 MN : 5 9 37.0 38.0 185 342 MT : 430 390 28.0 30.0 12,040 11,700 ND : 2,950 3,450 33.0 30.0 97,350 103,500 SD : 24 39 26.0 28.0 624 1,092 : US : 3,728 4,048 37.8 32.7 141,069 132,259 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Bushels -- ------- 1,000 Bushels ------ : CO : 60 52 71.0 70.0 3,700 4,260 3,640 ID : 510 640 77.0 75.0 45,030 39,270 48,000 MN : 1,920 2,150 41.0 37.0 75,200 78,720 79,550 MT : 3,600 4,050 30.0 32.0 118,900 108,000 129,600 NV : 8 5 80.0 95.0 475 640 475 ND : 6,600 5,600 32.0 31.0 210,000 211,200 173,600 OR : 95 153 48.0 44.0 6,600 4,560 6,732 SD : 1,850 1,650 32.0 35.0 63,000 59,200 57,750 UT : 23 29 58.0 60.0 1,152 1,334 1,740 WA : 465 620 45.0 42.0 23,220 20,925 26,040 WI : 7 7 30.0 30.0 266 210 210 WY : 10 4 39.0 40.0 612 390 160 : US : 15,148 14,960 34.9 35.3 548,155 528,709 527,497 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1997-98 and Forecast July 1, 1999 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Winter : Spring : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : White : Durum : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : 1,000 Bushels : 1997 :1,098,303 471,987 275,238 491,324 56,831 87,783 2,481,466 1998 :1,182,092 442,639 255,874 486,781 41,928 141,069 2,550,383 1999 :1,031,426 443,124 198,672 475,439 52,058 132,259 2,332,978 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Washington Wheat Variety Survey indicates winter wheat is 93 percent White. Winter Wheat: Head Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 12 winter wheat estimating states during this year; Idaho and Oregon were added back. Randomly selected plots in winter wheat fields are visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived from actual field counts and are not official estimates. Winter Wheat: Heads per Square Foot, Selected States, 1995-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - State and Month : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Number : CO July : 52.9 33.5 41.5 40.3 42.1 Final : 51.6 33.5 41.3 39.3 : ID July : 44.6 45.0 Final : 44.6 : IL July : 56.4 40.2 56.7 51.1 59.7 Final : 56.4 40.2 56.6 51.2 : KS July : 54.5 35.5 48.1 51.3 49.4 Final : 55.0 35.6 48.1 51.3 : MO July : 49.8 42.8 30.9 43.6 47.0 Final : 49.8 43.3 32.3 43.6 : MT July : 31.0 29.3 30.9 37.2 37.0 Final : 33.7 28.7 32.3 38.8 : NE July : 60.3 42.9 48.4 56.4 59.8 Final : 58.8 42.6 47.9 56.7 : OH July : 53.9 43.1 53.6 55.4 57.0 Final : 52.9 43.6 53.5 55.1 : OK July : 43.4 32.5 52.8 39.9 40.2 Final : 43.4 32.5 53.2 40.1 : OR July : 31.4 29.3 Final : 31.9 : TX July : 37.9 32.2 42.9 39.6 40.7 Final : 38.2 32.3 42.3 39.7 : WA July : 29.3 38.1 32.8 38.2 35.1 Final : 29.3 37.9 32.9 37.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains Summary" in September. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1998 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 69,000 60,000 2,285 2,300 157,665 138,000 VA : 33,000 26,000 2,220 2,200 73,260 57,200 US : 102,000 86,000 2,264 2,270 230,925 195,200 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 143,000 123,000 2,240 2,300 320,320 282,900 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 31,000 27,000 2,000 2,300 62,000 62,100 SC : 45,000 39,000 2,050 2,200 92,250 85,800 US : 76,000 66,000 2,030 2,241 154,250 147,900 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 6,800 6,000 2,515 2,600 17,102 15,600 GA : 41,000 35,000 2,200 2,100 90,200 73,500 US : 47,800 41,000 2,245 2,173 107,302 89,100 Total 11-14 : 368,800 316,000 2,204 2,263 812,797 715,100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Peaches: Total Production by Type, State, and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Million Pounds : AL : 25.0 16.0 20.0 AR : 14.3 12.5 10.5 CA - Freestone : 739.0 710.0 690.0 CO : 7.0 20.0 3.0 CT : 2.3 2.3 2.4 GA : 160.0 70.0 130.0 ID : 7.5 9.0 6.0 IL : 12.5 15.0 17.5 IN : 2.5 3.8 2.9 KS : 0.2 0.5 0.7 KY : 0.6 1.8 5.0 LA : 1.1 1.4 1.0 MD : 9.7 10.5 11.0 MA : 2.0 1.8 1.6 MI : 55.0 43.0 29.0 MO : 9.5 9.0 7.5 NJ : 65.0 70.0 65.0 NY : 12.0 10.0 11.0 NC : 10.0 25.0 30.0 OH : 6.0 6.8 7.0 OK : 2.0 20.0 10.0 OR : 5.8 8.0 7.0 PA : 70.0 65.0 68.0 SC : 160.0 140.0 160.0 TN : 3.5 3.2 5.0 TX : 20.0 24.0 13.0 UT : 8.1 7.7 4.0 VA : 9.0 14.0 16.0 WA : 46.0 51.0 50.0 WV : 11.0 13.0 14.0 : Total : 1,476.6 1,384.3 1,398.1 : CA : Clingstone : 1,148.0 1,045.0 1,100.0 : US : 2,624.6 2,429.3 2,498.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Total Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Tons : Grapes Table Type : CA : 825,000 645,000 750,000 Grapes Wine Type : CA : 2,940,000 2,570,000 2,900,000 Grapes Raisin Type 1/ : CA : 2,883,000 2,158,000 2,200,000 All Grapes : CA : 6,648,000 5,373,000 5,850,000 : Apricots : CA : 132,000 113,000 125,000 UT 2/ : 130 200 WA : 7,100 5,100 5,000 US : 139,230 118,300 130,000 : Walnuts 3/ : CA : 269,000 227,000 : : 1,000 Pounds : Almonds (Shelled Basis) 4/: CA : 759,000 520,000 830,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Fresh equivalent of dried and not dried. 2/ No significant commercial production in 1999 due to freeze damage. 3/ Utilized production. July 1999 subjective forecast discontinued. 4/ Utilized production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1996-97, 1997-98 and Forecasted July 1, 1999 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1996-97 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 : 1996-97 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 400 350 550 15 13 21 CA : 40,000 44,000 17,000 1,500 1,650 638 FL : 134,200 140,000 112,000 6,039 6,300 5,040 TX 4/ : 1,300 1,350 1,250 55 57 53 US : 175,900 185,700 130,800 7,609 8,020 5,752 Valencia : AZ : 600 650 650 23 25 24 CA : 24,000 25,000 17,000 900 938 638 FL : 92,000 104,000 73,700 4,140 4,680 3,317 TX 4/ : 120 175 170 5 7 7 US : 116,720 129,825 91,520 5,068 5,650 3,986 All : AZ : 1,000 1,000 1,200 38 38 45 CA : 64,000 69,000 34,000 2,400 2,588 1,276 FL : 226,200 244,000 185,700 10,179 10,980 8,357 TX 4/ : 1,420 1,525 1,420 60 64 60 US : 292,620 315,525 222,320 12,677 13,670 9,738 Temples : FL : 2,400 2,250 1,800 108 101 81 Grapefruit : White Seedless : FL 5/ : 23,500 18,300 17,800 999 777 757 Colored Seedless : FL 6/ : 31,400 30,600 28,700 1,334 1,301 1,220 Other : FL : 900 650 550 38 28 23 All : AZ : 900 800 800 30 27 27 CA : 8,200 9,000 8,500 275 301 285 FL 5/ 6/ : 55,800 49,550 47,050 2,371 2,106 2,000 TX 4/ : 5,300 4,800 6,000 212 192 240 US : 70,200 64,150 62,350 2,888 2,626 2,552 Tangerines : AZ 7/ : 550 600 1,000 21 23 38 CA 4/ 7/ : 2,600 2,400 1,700 98 90 64 FL : 6,300 5,200 4,950 299 247 235 US : 9,450 8,200 7,650 418 360 337 Lemons : AZ : 2,600 2,600 3,500 99 99 133 CA : 22,600 22,000 18,000 859 836 684 US : 25,200 24,600 21,500 958 935 817 Tangelos : FL : 3,950 2,850 2,550 178 128 115 K-Early Citrus : FL : 150 40 80 7 2 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ Excludes White Seedless economic abandonment of 3,000,000 boxes in 1996-97 and 5,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 6/ Excludes Colored Seedless economic abandonment of 3,000,000 boxes in 1996-97 and 1,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 7/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1998-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : May : 3,225 3,760 2,175 2,150 2,995 3,300 Jun : 3,630 3,410 2,460 1,885 2,685 3,100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Tart Cherries: Total Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted 1999 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Million Pounds : CO : 0.7 1.3 0.6 MI : 225.0 263.0 192.0 NY : 14.5 14.0 19.0 OR : 3.7 2.8 4.0 PA : 6.5 4.2 5.5 UT : 17.5 33.0 14.0 WA : 13.5 14.0 13.2 WI : 11.5 14.7 8.5 : Total : 292.9 347.0 256.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ PA revised. Other forecasts carried forward from "Cherry Production" released June 24, 1999. Sweet Cherries: Total Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted 1999 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Tons : CA : 49,200 15,400 50,000 ID : 1,600 2,200 1,400 MI : 27,000 35,000 29,000 MT : 1,100 2,050 1,300 NY : 650 700 950 OR : 50,000 55,000 53,000 PA : 500 550 650 UT : 720 2,800 700 WA : 95,000 96,000 80,000 : Total : 225,770 209,700 217,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Forecasts carried forward from "Cherry Production" released June 24, 1999. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1997-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Seasonal : Area Planted :Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : -------- 1,000 Acres ------- --- Cwt --- --- 1,000 Cwt -- : Winter 1/ : CA : 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 220 210 1,540 1,638 FL : 8.5 10.1 8.0 9.9 180 200 1,440 1,980 : Total : 15.5 17.9 15.0 17.7 199 204 2,980 3,618 : Spring 1/ : AL : 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 130 175 221 280 AZ : 8.1 9.4 8.1 9.4 282 290 2,284 2,726 CA : 18.5 19.5 18.5 19.5 335 365 6,198 7,118 FL : 35.8 29.8 34.5 29.0 213 261 7,358 7,560 Hastings : 25.5 22.5 24.5 22.0 235 280 5,758 6,160 Other FL : 10.3 7.3 10.0 7.0 160 200 1,600 1,400 NC : 18.0 17.0 17.5 16.5 190 195 3,325 3,218 TX : 10.8 10.3 10.3 9.8 170 235 1,751 2,303 : Total : 93.0 87.7 90.6 85.8 233 270 21,137 23,205 : Summer : AL : 4.4 3.7 4.3 3.6 130 165 559 594 CA : 6.2 6.7 6.1 6.7 355 345 2,166 2,312 CO : 7.7 7.9 7.5 7.7 345 350 2,588 2,695 DE : 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.3 220 210 1,012 903 IL : 5.8 4.9 4.9 4.7 290 300 1,421 1,410 IA : 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 235 185 306 167 MD : 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.8 235 220 1,081 1,056 MO : 9.6 8.0 8.8 7.5 215 300 1,892 2,250 NE : 4.5 4.9 4.4 4.8 365 320 1,606 1,536 NJ : 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 270 255 702 638 NM : 4.3 4.3 3.7 4.3 260 300 962 1,290 NC : 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 95 90 105 90 TX : 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.0 380 385 3,116 3,080 VA : 7.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 230 175 1,380 1,050 : Total : 73.0 69.2 68.1 66.8 277 285 18,896 19,071 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - See footnotes at end of table. --continued Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1997-99 (continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Seasonal : Area Planted :Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - :--------- 1,000 Acres --------- -- Cwt -- 1,000 Cwt : Fall 2/ : CA : 10.3 9.8 10.3 9.8 360 3,708 CO : 75.8 77.2 75.7 77.0 335 25,360 ID : 415.0 400.0 413.0 398.0 338 139,650 10 SW Co: 28.0 26.0 28.0 26.0 450 12,600 Other ID: 387.0 374.0 385.0 372.0 330 127,050 IN : 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 320 1,600 ME : 65.5 68.0 64.5 67.0 280 18,060 MA : 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 220 660 MI : 48.0 48.0 47.5 47.5 310 14,725 MN : 82.0 70.0 73.0 65.0 290 21,170 MT : 10.6 11.0 10.6 11.0 300 3,180 NE : 22.0 21.6 21.8 21.4 375 8,175 NV : 7.0 5.0 6.9 5.0 395 2,726 NM : 6.2 6.6 5.9 6.6 380 2,242 NY : 27.6 26.0 27.0 25.5 270 7,290 ND : 126.0 125.0 122.0 121.0 235 28,670 OH : 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.6 250 1,200 OR : 59.0 58.0 58.0 57.5 452 26,229 Malheur : 11.5 10.5 11.4 10.5 400 4,560 Other OR: 47.5 47.5 46.6 47.0 465 21,669 PA : 14.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 240 3,360 RI : 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 210 147 SD : 5.0 3.5 4.8 3.3 260 1,248 UT : 2.7 2.0 2.6 2.0 280 728 WA : 165.0 170.0 165.0 170.0 565 93,225 WI : 84.5 86.0 83.5 85.0 370 30,895 WY : 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 300 120 : Total :1,241.2 1,216.4 1,220.0 1,200.3 356 434,368 : US :1,422.7 1,391.2 1,393.7 1,370.6 343 477,381 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ The forecast of fall potato production will be released November 10, 1999. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes, 11 Major States, 1998-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Potato Types 1/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Reds : Whites : Russets :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Percent : CO : 5 4 3 4 92 92 ID : 7 8 93 92 ME : 4 4 70 65 26 31 MI : 3 3 75 77 22 20 MN : 18 23 19 13 63 64 NY : 100 100 ND : 18 18 40 34 42 48 OR : 1 2 27 14 72 84 PA : 100 100 WA : 3 3 9 10 88 87 WI : 7 8 35 29 58 63 : Total : 5 5 25 23 70 72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s) constituting less than 1 percent of State's total. Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes, by State and Total, 1998-99 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : 1998 Crop : 1999 Crop :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Entered for : : Percent : Entered for : Certification : Certified : Certified : Certification ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : --------- Acres --------- Percent Acres : AK : 150 122 81 200 CA : 1,250 1,115 89 1,350 CO : 14,563 13,431 92 14,833 ID : 44,668 46,784 105 43,500 ME : 16,335 17,300 106 16,062 MI : 2,500 2,613 105 2,600 MN : 14,375 13,272 92 13,400 MT : 10,075 9,983 99 10,200 NE : 6,469 7,336 113 7,250 NY : 1,700 1,195 70 1,100 ND : 24,032 23,806 99 22,677 OR : 2,600 2,739 105 2,594 PA : 183 157 86 156 SD : 1,400 1,726 123 1,400 UT : 33 33 100 60 WA : 2,350 2,489 106 2,250 WI : 10,736 10,510 98 10,500 : Total : 153,419 154,611 101 150,132 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Data supplied by State seed certification officials. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 6,340.0 5,237.0 5,867.0 4,894.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,187.0 77,611.0 72,604.0 71,039.0 Corn for Silage : 5,919.0 Hay, All : 60,016.0 61,951.0 Alfalfa : 23,642.0 23,968.0 All Other : 36,374.0 37,983.0 Oats : 4,902.0 4,658.0 2,765.0 2,641.0 Rice : 3,345.0 3,600.0 3,317.0 3,575.0 Rye : 1,571.0 1,573.0 418.0 396.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,626.0 9,049.0 7,723.0 8,299.0 Sorghum for Silage : 305.0 Wheat, All : 65,871.0 62,883.0 59,002.0 54,617.0 Winter : 46,449.0 43,419.0 40,126.0 35,609.0 Durum : 3,805.0 4,165.0 3,728.0 4,048.0 Other Spring : 15,617.0 15,299.0 15,148.0 14,960.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,127.0 1,095.0 1,092.0 1,067.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 336.0 341.0 329.0 334.0 Mustard Seed : 98.9 59.7 95.6 58.2 Peanuts : 1,521.0 1,469.0 1,467.0 1,449.5 Rapeseed : 4.8 3.5 4.7 3.5 Safflower : 303.0 313.0 285.0 294.0 Soybeans for Beans : 72,375.0 74,205.0 70,811.0 73,316.0 Sunflower : 3,553.0 3,606.0 3,476.0 3,523.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,392.5 14,559.2 10,683.6 Upland : 13,064.3 14,241.0 10,448.8 Amer-Pima : 328.2 318.2 234.8 Sugarbeets : 1,498.8 1,560.2 1,451.7 1,529.0 Sugarcane : 947.1 963.5 Tobacco : 717.7 661.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 9.0 7.4 Dry Edible Beans : 2,010.1 2,022.8 1,913.9 1,941.3 Dry Edible Peas : 323.4 309.1 Lentils : 162.0 158.5 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.1 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 Hops : 36.6 34.2 Peppermint Oil : 124.0 Potatoes, All : 1,422.7 1,391.2 1,393.7 1,370.6 Winter : 15.5 17.9 15.0 17.7 Spring : 93.0 87.7 90.6 85.8 Summer : 73.0 69.2 68.1 66.8 Fall : 1,241.2 1,216.4 1,220.0 1,200.3 Spearmint Oil : 27.4 Sweet Potatoes : 87.2 88.1 83.8 85.2 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 60.1 60.3 352,445 294,869 Corn for Grain : " : 134.4 9,761,085 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.0 94,525 Hay, All : " : 2.52 151,338 Alfalfa : " : 3.47 82,010 All Other : " : 1.91 69,328 Oats : Bu : 60.4 61.1 167,122 161,251 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 5,669 188,051 Rye : Bu : 28.2 11,795 Sorghum for Grain : " : 67.3 519,933 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.4 3,487 Wheat, All : Bu : 43.2 42.7 2,550,383 2,332,978 Winter : " : 46.9 47.0 1,880,605 1,673,222 Durum : " : 37.8 32.7 141,069 132,259 Other Spring : " : 34.9 35.3 528,709 527,497 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,455 1,588,620 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 5,497 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.4 6,708 Mustard Seed : Lb : 855 81,750 Peanuts : " : 2,702 3,963,440 Rapeseed : " : 1,353 6,360 Safflower : " : 1,446 412,085 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.9 2,756,794 Sunflower : Lb : 1,509 5,246,701 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 625 13,918.2 Upland 2/ : " : 619 13,475.9 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 904 442.3 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.5 32,606 Sugarcane : " : 35.8 34,707 Tobacco : Lb : 2,061 1,479,179 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,405 104 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,611 30,828 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,920 5,934 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,223 1,938 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 674 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,480 9,000 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 50,000 18,000 Hops : " : 1,625 59,548 Peppermint Oil : " : 78 9,727 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 343 477,381 Winter : " : 199 204 2,980 3,618 Spring : " : 233 270 21,137 23,205 Summer : " : 277 285 18,896 19,071 Fall : " : 356 434,368 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 109 2,987 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 148 12,382 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,888 2,626 2,552 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 7 2 4 Lemons : " : 958 935 817 Oranges : " : 12,677 13,670 9,738 Tangelos (FL) : " : 178 128 115 Tangerines : " : 418 360 337 Temples (FL) : " : 108 101 81 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,323.8 11,387.4 Apricots : Ton : 139.2 118.3 130.0 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 13,700.0 21,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,290.9 5,903.0 Olives (CA) : " : 104.0 90.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 38,800.0 39,900.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,624.6 2,429.3 2,498.1 Pears : Ton : 1,042.5 955.1 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 214.0 108.0 180.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 25.5 25.6 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 759,000 520,000 830,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 47.0 15.5 Pecans : Lb : 335,000 146,400 Pistachios (CA) : " : 180,000 188,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 269.0 227.0 Maple Syrup : 1,000 Gal: 1,298 1,159 1,180 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99 (Metric Units) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,565,730 2,119,360 2,374,320 1,980,550 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,450,880 31,408,400 29,382,110 28,748,770 Corn for Silage : 2,395,360 Hay, All 3/ : 24,287,880 25,070,950 Alfalfa : 9,567,680 9,699,610 All Other : 14,720,190 15,371,340 Oats : 1,983,790 1,885,050 1,118,970 1,068,790 Rice : 1,353,690 1,456,880 1,342,360 1,446,770 Rye : 635,770 636,580 169,160 160,260 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,895,550 3,662,040 3,125,420 3,358,520 Sorghum for Silage : 123,430 Wheat, All 3/ :26,657,330 25,448,120 23,877,520 22,102,950 Winter :18,797,450 17,571,240 16,238,590 14,410,610 Durum : 1,539,850 1,685,530 1,508,680 1,638,190 Other Spring : 6,320,040 6,191,350 6,130,240 6,054,160 : Oilseeds : Canola : 456,090 443,140 441,920 431,800 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 135,980 138,000 133,140 135,170 Mustard Seed : 40,020 24,160 38,690 23,550 Peanuts : 615,530 594,490 593,680 586,600 Rapeseed : 1,940 1,420 1,900 1,420 Safflower : 122,620 126,670 115,340 118,980 Soybeans for Beans :29,289,440 30,030,020 28,656,500 29,670,250 Sunflower : 1,437,860 1,459,310 1,406,700 1,425,720 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,419,810 5,891,960 4,323,550 Upland : 5,286,990 5,763,190 4,228,520 Amer-Pima : 132,820 128,770 95,020 Sugarbeets : 606,550 631,400 587,490 618,770 Sugarcane : 385,060 389,920 Tobacco : 290,430 267,550 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 3,640 2,990 Dry Edible Beans : 813,470 818,610 774,540 785,620 Dry Edible Peas : 130,880 125,090 Lentils : 65,560 64,140 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,470 Ginger Root (HI) : 150 Hops : 14,830 13,860 Peppermint Oil : 50,180 Potatoes, All 3/ : 575,750 563,000 564,020 554,670 Winter : 6,270 7,240 6,070 7,160 Spring : 37,640 35,490 36,660 34,720 Summer : 29,540 28,000 27,560 27,030 Fall : 502,300 492,260 493,720 485,750 Spearmint Oil : 11,090 Sweet Potatoes : 35,290 35,650 33,910 34,480 Taro (HI) 4/ : 200 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99 (Metric Units) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.23 3.24 7,673,580 6,420,010 Corn for Grain : 8.44 247,942,980 Corn for Silage : 35.80 85,751,640 Hay, All 2/ : 5.65 137,291,520 Alfalfa : 7.78 74,398,220 All Other : 4.27 62,893,300 Oats : 2.17 2.19 2,425,770 2,340,550 Rice : 6.35 8,529,850 Rye : 1.77 299,610 Sorghum for Grain : 4.23 13,206,910 Sorghum for Silage : 25.63 3,163,350 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.91 2.87 69,410,050 63,493,260 Winter : 3.15 3.16 51,181,680 45,537,640 Durum : 2.54 2.20 3,839,270 3,599,500 Other Spring : 2.35 2.37 14,389,100 14,356,120 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.63 720,590 Cottonseed 3/ : 4,987,160 Flaxseed : 1.28 170,390 Mustard Seed : 0.96 37,080 Peanuts : 3.03 1,797,790 Rapeseed : 1.52 2,880 Safflower : 1.62 186,920 Soybeans for Beans : 2.62 75,027,640 Sunflower : 1.69 2,379,860 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.70 3,030,330 Upland : 0.69 2,934,030 Amer-Pima : 1.01 96,300 Sugarbeets : 50.35 29,579,670 Sugarcane : 80.24 30,895,990 Tobacco : 2.31 670,940 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 4,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.81 1,398,330 Dry Edible Peas : 2.15 269,160 Lentils : 1.37 87,910 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 30,570 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.65 4,080 Ginger Root (HI) : 56.04 8,160 Hops : 1.82 27,010 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 4,410 Potatoes, All 2/ : 38.39 21,653,640 Winter : 22.27 22.91 135,170 164,110 Spring : 26.15 30.31 958,760 1,052,560 Summer : 31.10 32.00 857,110 865,050 Fall : 39.91 19,702,600 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 1,350 Sweet Potatoes : 16.56 561,640 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,720 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99 (Metric Units) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,619,950 2,382,270 2,315,140 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 1,810 3,630 Lemons : 869,080 848,220 741,170 Oranges : 11,500,380 12,401,220 8,834,160 Tangelos (FL) : 161,480 116,120 104,330 Tangerines : 379,200 326,590 305,720 Temples (FL) : 97,980 91,630 73,480 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,682,800 5,165,240 Apricots : 126,310 107,320 117,930 Bananas (HI) : 6,210 9,530 Grapes : 6,614,190 5,355,070 Olives (CA) : 94,350 81,650 Papayas (HI) : 17,600 18,100 Peaches : 1,190,500 1,101,910 1,133,120 Pears : 945,740 866,490 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 194,140 97,980 163,290 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 23,130 23,220 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 344,280 235,870 376,480 Hazelnuts : 42,640 14,060 Pecans : 151,950 66,410 Pistachios (CA) : 81,650 85,280 Walnuts (CA) : 244,030 205,930 Maple Syrup : 6,490 5,790 5,900 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. Ju ne We at he r Su mm ar y Fr eq ue nt he av y ra inf all dis rupted winter wheat harvesting on the central and southern Plains until month's end, when warmer, drier air overspread the region. In addition, strong thunderstorms and hail damaged cotton on parts of the southern Plains. In the Southeast widespread rains improved soil moisture and stabilized crop conditions. In contrast, drought worsened from the Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England, as monthly rainfall totaled less than 50 percent of normal in many areas and 1-year precipitation deficits topped 15 inches at some locations. Drought also continued to adversely affect dryland crops in the interior Northwest, where late-June showers provided only localized relief from the 4-month dry spell. The Southwest experienced several seasons compressed into a single month, as early June featured very cool weather and winter-like storm systems, and late June showcased very hot weather and the gradual onset of seasonal (monsoon) thunderstorms. Across the northern Plains and western Corn Belt, occasional showers and thunderstorms maintained adequate to locally surplus soil moisture for developing summer crops. Meanwhile in the easternmost Corn Belt, warm and often dry weather reduced soil moisture to unfavorable levels, although late-month rains benefited corn and soybeans. Following June's very cool start in the Southwest, temperatures soared well above normal. The region's overall monthly temperature departures varied widely, ranging from -5 degrees F in California's San Joaquin Valley to +2 degrees F in parts of Arizona. Elsewhere, monthly temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F below normal in the Plains and Northwest. Near-normal temperatures prevailed in the Southeast, while readings ranged from 1 to 4 degrees F above normal in the Great Lakes region. General Crop Comments: Numerous storm systems provided ample rain to maintain soil moisture levels and support crop development in most areas of the Corn Belt, parts of the central and southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent areas of the Southeast. Some pockets within these areas received excessive rainfall and experienced hail, wind, and flood damage. Field activities were hampered throughout the month in eastern areas of Oklahoma and Kansas due to persistent rain and muddy soils. The winter wheat harvest fell behind the 5-year average early in the month and continued to lag through the end of the month, mostly due to slow progress in Oklahoma and Kansas. Sorghum planting was also hampered by rain in Oklahoma and Kansas. In Iowa, heavy rains eroded soils and standing water damaged some corn and soybean fields. A few isolated corn fields had a yellow appearance due to lingering soil wetness. Rain partially eased drought conditions in some areas of the Atlantic Coastal Plains, but soils remained short of moisture in many areas and crops were increasingly stressed, as temperatures steadily climbed during the month. Soil moisture ranged from slightly dry to favorably moist across most of the northern Great Plains during most of the month. Seasonal temperatures promoted near-normal crop development across most of the Nation during June. Corn and soybeans developed slightly ahead of normal in most areas of the Corn Belt. By mid-month, nearly all of the corn and more than 80 percent of the soybeans were emerged. Corn silking and soybeans blooming were slightly ahead of the 5-year average on July 4. Cool weather hindered small grain development in the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest until mid-month, when warmer weather accelerated growth. On July 4, spring wheat was 49 percent headed, 2 percentage points ahead of the average, and barley was 43 percent headed, 4 percentage points behind the average. Despite dry soils that hindered planting in the Atlantic Coastal Plains early in the month, nearly all of the cotton was planted by mid-month. Growth was aided by near-normal temperatures and adequate soil moisture in the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Texas, but development progressed slightly behind normal due to below-normal temperatures in the Southeast and southern High Plains. As of July 4, cotton squaring or beyond was at 66 percent and cotton setting bolls or beyond was at 16 percent. Both stages were 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Rice developed ahead of normal along the western Gulf Coast, but lagged slightly behind the 5-year average in interior areas of the lower Mississippi Valley. Seventeen percent of the acreage was headed on July 4, equal to last year but ahead of the normal pace. In Texas and Louisiana, more than one-half of the crop was headed. Oats: Production is estimated at 161.3 million bushels, 4 percent below last year's 167.1 million bushels. If realized, production would be the third lowest on record. The estimated yield is 61.1 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushel from 1998. This would be the third highest yield on record. Area for harvest was unchanged from the previous estimate of 2.64 million acres. As of July 4, 75 percent of the acreage in the 9 major oat-producing States was rated good or better and only 5 percent was in poor or very poor condition. Early planting, warm weather, and good moisture supplies aided development in most areas of the Corn Belt during the spring. Conditions deteriorated in Ohio and Pennsylvania, as a hot, dry weather pattern developed in late June. In North Dakota, planting progress lagged behind normal through most of the spring, but above-normal temperatures during most of May and June accelerated development and partially compensated for the slow planting progress. By July 4, 72 percent of the crop was headed in the 9 major oat-producing states, compared with the 5-year average of 67 percent. Nearly one-third of the acreage was headed in North Dakota, slightly ahead of the normal progress of 31 percent. Barley: Production for 1999 is forecast at 295 million bushels, down 16 percent from a year ago and down 18 percent from 1997. The first forecast for 1999 indicates that producers expect yields to average 60.3 bushels per acre, a slight increase from last year. Area harvested and to be harvested, at 4.89 million acres, is 17 percent below the 5.87 million acres harvested the previous year. In comparing yields to the previous year, 12 states are expecting higher yields in 1999 while 15 States are indicating lower yields or no change from 1998. The yield decline from last year in North Dakota was more than offset by the increase in Montana. Producers in North Dakota, the largest barley acreage state, expect yields to average 50 bushels per acre, a decrease of 5 bushels below the 1998 yield. All of the Middle Atlantic states expect an increase in yields as hot, dry weather limited disease problems. Barley harvest was ongoing or nearing completion in Arizona, southern California, and most Eastern States. Winter Wheat: Acres for harvest as grain are forecast at 35.6 million, down 11 percent from 1998. Harvest progress in the 19 major producing states had reached 45 percent completion by July 4. This trailed well behind last year's rapid harvest and lagged normal by eight points. In general, Soft Red Winter (SRW) states are ahead of average harvesting progress while Hard Red Winter (HRW) trailed. Harvested yields were better than previously expected in the SRW states, some spectacularly so. Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee now expect new record highs. These states joined Alabama and Mississippi where records had been forecast a month ago. Collective head count forecasts dipped in the SRW Objective Yield states (Illinois, Missouri, Ohio), but average weight per head is up 9 percent. Forecasted head counts from the Objective Yield surveys in the six HRW states (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas) are up slightly from last month, but weight per head is up a collective 15 percent and is near last year's record. The Texas harvest moved into the High Plains by late June. California's San Joaquin Valley harvest was complete by July1; minimal disease problems are reported in the Sacramento Valley crop. New Mexico's dryland yields are the best in years. Combined plant populations in the Pacific Northwest Objective Yield region are higher than average, but forecasted head weight is still lower than normal. Yield prospects improved in Nevada and Utah, but dimmed somewhat in New York. The Utah yield is a new record. Durum Wheat: Area for 1999 grain harvest is expected to total 4.05 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. Excellent yields have been reported from California's Imperial Valley crop where harvest finished around July 1. Arizona harvest reached 93 percent completion by July 4. Late planting has the Montana acreage trailing average progress, but prospects are good for this year. Modest yield increases are expected in Minnesota and South Dakota Durum. North Dakota's late planted crop trails average development by several days. Other Spring Wheat: Harvested area is forecast at 15.0 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. Acreage was 49 percent headed in the five major producing states, two points ahead of normal. Yield prospects are up from 1998 in Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. The Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) production forecast is up from a year ago due to jumps in acreage; yields are down in all three states. Idaho's cool, dry season has the crop developing slowly. The Oregon spring wheat has also been slowed by cool temperatures. Dryness has stressed the Washington crop and development trails average by one to two weeks. Montana's spring crop is in good-to-excellent condition, but lags average development. Minnesota's crop is in mostly fair-to-good condition while the Dakota's spring wheat crops are rated as mostly good. Scab has been reported in eastern North Dakota districts. Tobacco: U.S. all flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 715.1 million pounds, down 12 percent from 1998. Yield per acre for flue-cured is forecast at 2,263 pounds, up 59 pounds from the 1998 average but 22 pounds below two years ago. Yields for all flue-cured types increased from last year in North Carolina, the largest producing state, but production declined due to large decreases in acreage. South Carolina's flue-cured tobacco yield is forecast at 2,200 pounds, an increase of 150 pounds from 1998. Virginia's yield is forecast at 2,200 pounds, down 20 pounds from last year. Georgia's yield is forecast at 2,100 pounds, down 100 pounds from 1998 due to problems from tomato spotted wilt virus and other diseases. Florida's yields are expected to average 2,600 pounds, up 85 pounds from a year ago. Rains in mid to late June helped improve dry conditions across all flue-cured states. Harvest has begun in Florida and Georgia while growers in the Carolinas and Virginia are topping their crop. Peaches: As of July 1, the 1999 peach crop is forecast at 2.50 billion pounds, up 3 percent from 1998 but down 5 percent from 1997. The U. S. Freestone crop is forecast at l.40 billion pounds, up 1 percent from 1998 but down 5 percent from two years ago. Fifteen of the thirty producing states expect to produce more Freestone peaches than in 1998. Production in Georgia is expected to be 60.0 million pounds greater than 1998, the largest increase of any State. The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 1.10 billion pounds, up 5 percent from both the June 1 forecast and the 1998 estimate. Adequate chilling hours over the winter are making for a larger crop in 1999. Peach rust continues to be a problem for some growers and frost damage has been reported in Yuba and Sutter counties. The California Freestone crop is forecast at 690.0 million pounds, down 7 percent from the June 1 forecast and down 3 percent from the 1998 estimate. Crop development is running about two to three weeks behind normal due to cool spring weather. Frost and hail damage during April were reported in several areas affecting the early varieties. The variability in temperatures this season is causing quality problems such as split pits and russeting for some growers. South Carolina's peach crop, forecast at 160.0 million pounds, is unchanged from the June 1 forecast but up 14 percent from last year. Recent rains have improved chances of a good crop. Harvest was 42 percent complete by the first week of July, 11 percentage points ahead of 1998 and 7 percentage points ahead of average. The Georgia peach crop, at 130.0 million pounds, is also unchanged from the June 1 forecast. Production is up 86 percent from 1998 but down 19 percent from two years ago. Harvest was almost half complete by the first week of July, compared with 76 percent for the 5-year average. Conditions have improved with recent rains, an average crop is expected. The condition of peaches in Pennsylvania is rated mostly good to excellent. Production is forecast at 68.0 million pounds, up 5 percent from last year but down 3 percent from 1997. In New Jersey the bloom was very early and heavy for most varieties. Scattered hail damaged some major orchards in the southern part of the state at the end of May. Production is forecast at 65.0 million pounds, down 7 percent from 1998. In Michigan, the peach crop was severely reduced by a January freeze that virtually eliminated production in Berrien and Van Buren counties. Peach production in the eastern and west-central parts of the state appear to be excellent. Production in Michigan is forecast at 29.0 million pounds, down 33 percent from last year and down 47 percent from 1997. North Carolina's peach crop, forecast at 30 million pounds, is up 20 percent from 1998. Harvest is active and ahead of normal with good quality and average size reported. In Texas, production is forecast at 13.0 million pounds, nearly half of last year's crop due to lack of chilling hours. Elsewhere around the country, production is up in Alabama, Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Production is down in Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Washington due to cool spring weather and scattered frost damage. California Grapes: California's all grape production is forecast at 5.58 million tons, up 9 percent from 1998 but down 12 percent from 1997. Wine grapes account for 49 percent of California's total production, raisin grapes account for 38 percent, and table grapes make up the remaining 13 percent. Spring weather started off dryer and cooler than normal, making the crop maturity 7 to 10 days behind normal. Recent hot weather has improved crop maturity. Harvest of seedless varieties for fresh use continues in the Coachella Valley with good quality reported. California's wine grape production is forecast at 2.9 million tons, up 13 percent from last year but down 1 percent from 1997. Production of wine grapes continue to increase due to additional acreage coming into bearing. The forecast for raisin type varieties is 2.2 million tons, up 2 percent from 1998 but down 24 percent from 1997. Bunch count is down from last year but larger in size. Table grape production is forecast at 750,000 tons, up 16 percent from 1998 and down 9 percent from 1997. Apricots: The final forecast for the 1999 apricot crop is 130,000 tons, up 10 percent from last year's crop and down 7 percent from 1997. California growers will produce 96 percent of the U.S. apricot crop. California's 1999 apricot production is forecast at 125,000 tons, up 11 percent from last year but down 5 percent from 1997. The bloom for California apricots was very heavy this year. Many growers spent time thinning their orchards. Some growers are concerned about size due to heavy fruit set. The crop is 10 days later than average. Almonds: California's 1999 almond objective measurement production is forecast at a record 830 million meat pounds. This is up 9 percent from May's subjective forecast of 760 million meat pounds and up 60 percent from the 1998 crop. Bearing acreage is estimated at 480,000 acres, up 20,000 from the revised 1998 acres of 460,000. Statewide bloom reports ranged from good to excellent with ideal weather for pollination. Frost during the first two weeks of April caused moderate to heavy damage in a few locations. Cool late spring weather delayed crop development by about two weeks. Grapefruit: The July 1 forecast of U.S. grapefruit production is 2.55 million tons, down 1 percent from the June forecast and down 3 percent from last season. The forecast of Florida grapefruit is decreased to 47.1 million boxes (2.00 million tons). If realized, the forecast will be down 5 percent from a year ago. The white seedless forecast is decreased to 17.8 million boxes (757,000 tons), down 1 percent from last month and down 3 percent from the previous season. The white seedless forecast is the smallest in more than 25 years, including freeze seasons. The colored seedless forecast is reduced to 28.7 million boxes (1.22 million tons), 1 percent less than last month and 6 percent less than the 1997-98 season. The forecast of seedy grapefruit is 550,000 boxes (23,000 tons), down 8 percent from the previous forecast and down 15 percent from last year. This is Florida's smallest ever recorded seedy grapefruit crop. Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 8.50 million boxes (285,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from a year ago. The December freeze did not affect grapefruit production as much as other citrus commodities. Desert areas were warmer than last year and grapefruit had excellent color and quality. Arizona's grapefruit forecast was increased to 800,000 boxes (27,000 tons), the same level as last year. Harvesting is winding down for the season. The Texas forecast is carried forward from a month ago. Lemons: The 1998-99 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 817,000 tons, unchanged from the April forecast, but down 13 percent from the 1997-98 crop. California's forecast remains at 18.0 million boxes (684,000 tons), 18 percent less than a year ago. The Central Valley crop was hit hard by the late December freeze. Lemons not harvested before the freeze were a complete loss to the fresh market. In the south coast areas, light frost damage was observed, but no rejections of fruit were reported. The Arizona lemon forecast remained at 3.50 million boxes (133,000 tons), up 35 percent from a year ago. Improved market conditions have led to more aggressive picking. Florida Citrus: June was a very wet month in Florida's citrus belt. The summer rains started early in the month, breaking a six-month dry period. The extremely dry winter and spring caused a delayed and erratic bloom that lasted from February to early June. The recent rains have provided near ideal growing conditions. There is an abundance of new foliage on trees of all ages. New crop fruit continues to make good growth. Harvest of Valencia oranges slowed considerably by the end of June as supplies were running low and virtually all of the larger processors had closed for the season. Grapefruit, Temple, and Honey tangerine harvests also ended during June as supplies ran out. Caretakers were cutting cover crops that made rapid growth due to the recent rains. Growers were also applying herbicides and summer fertilizers. California Citrus: During June, tangerine and navel orange harvesting was completed in southern California. Lemon and grapefruit harvesting was active with good demand and quality. Volume has slowed, however, due to competition with stone fruit. California Fruits and Nuts: Stone fruit growers harvested their crops during June. Cherry harvest was virtually complete by the end of the month. Freestone peaches and nectarines were approximately one third picked and plums were about one fifth picked by July 1. Split pits and russeting were concerns to growers. Apricot harvest was also active. Apricot trees had a heavy set but small fruit size. Grape growers in the Coachella Valley were harvesting grapes for fresh use and good quality was reported. The primary varieties picked were Thompson Seedless, Perlettes, and Flame Seedless. Grape growers applied sulfur and insecticides in the San Joaquin Valley to combat mildew and insects. Olive trees were showing a good set as maturity progressed. Tree limbs in almond orchards remained propped to bear the weight of the heavy nut set. Pistachio trees were sprayed with fungicides and walnut trees were treated for blight. Strawberry harvest was active during June. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya output is estimated at 3.10 million pounds for June, 6 percent lower than May but 15 percent higher than June 1998. Total area is estimated at 3,410 acres in June, 9 percent lower than May and 6 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, at 1,885 acres, is 12 percent lower than last month and 23 percent lower than last June. June weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and showers over major papaya producing orchards. Longer day length and warm temperatures have been beneficial to fruit maturation. Tart Cherries: U.S. tart cherry production is forecast at 256.8 million pounds, down 26 percent from 1998 and 12 percent below 1997. This level is the lowest since 1991 when 190 million pounds were produced. Michigan, the largest producing state, expects a crop of 192 million pounds, down 27 percent from last year and 15 percent below the 1997 crop. Drought conditions in the fall along with light frost damage reduced bud formation. New York, Pennsylvania, and Oregon are the only states expecting a larger crop. Excellent growing conditions have pushed their crop sizes up over 30 percent. The rest of the major tart cherry states expect declines in production due to cold weather and rain during the bloom period. Sweet Cherries: U.S. sweet cherry production is forecast at 217,000 tons, up 3 percent from 1998 but 4 percent below 1997. California expects to produce a much larger crop while Oregon, Washington, and Michigan expect declines. The Washington crop, at 80,000 tons, is 17 percent less than last year. Production in Oregon is forecast at 53,000 tons, down 4 percent from last year. Cool weather and heavy rain during the bloom period resulted in reduced pollination in the Northwest. The sweet cherry crop in California is forecast at 50,000 tons, more than triple the 1998 crop. Moderate rains and a good amount of chill hours contributed to the favorable growing conditions for California. The Michigan sweet cherry crop is forecast at 29,000 tons, down 17 percent from 1998. A dry fall and frost damage have reduced the 1999 crop size. All Potatoes: Potato farmers across the United States have planted an estimated 1.39 million acres of potatoes in all four 1999 seasons, down 2 percent from last year but 1 percent above 1997. Area for harvest, forecast at 1.37 million acres, is down 2 percent from a year ago but 1 percent above 1997. Winter plantings were up 15 percent, spring is down 6 percent, summer acreage is off 5 percent, and fall planted acreage is down 2 percent from last year. Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes in 1999 is estimated at 1.22 million acres, down 2 percent from last year but 1 percent above 1997. Harvest is expected from 1.20 million acres, down 2 percent from a year ago but 1 percent above two years ago. Planting and early development has been slow in much of the western and north-central States. Eastern States have planted an estimated 112,200 acres, up 1 percent from last year but 3 percent below 1997. Maine's potato acreage increased 4 percent from a year ago. The crop went into the ground early and scattered moisture remains adequate. Pennsylvania growers planted the same number of acres as last year. Dry soils are limiting crop growth. New York acreage is down 6 percent as dry soils delayed late planting. Rhode Island and Massachusetts remained the same as last year. Central States planted an estimated 364,100 acres of fall potatoes this year, down 4 percent from last year and 2 percent below 1997. Conditions in Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio are nearly ideal. Michigan's acreage is the same as last year, but Ohio and Indiana are off 2 and 6 percent, respectively. Rain delayed the completion of planting in North Dakota and Minnesota. Minnesota acreage is down 15 percent and North Dakota is off slightly. Acreage in South Dakota dropped 30 percent and Nebraska slipped 2 percent from last year. Nebraska fields had some hail damage. Wisconsin's planted acreage increased by 2 percent and crop progress is good. Western States potato plantings were estimated at 740,000 acres in 1999, down 2 percent from last year but 2 percent above two years ago. Cool spring weather slowed potato development in most of the western States. Idaho farmers planted 4 percent fewer acres than last year. Development was late but growing conditions have improved. Oregon and California got off to a slow start which may delay harvest by as much as two weeks. Oregon acreage is down 2 percent and California dropped 5 percent. Acreage in Colorado and Washington are up 2 and 3 percent respectively. Emergence lagged in both States because of cool spring weather. A recent heat wave in Washington will move the start of harvest to nearly normal timing. Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 19.1 million cwt, up 1 percent from last year and 5 percent above 1997. Farmers expect to harvest 66,800 acres during the summer season, down 2 percent from a year ago but 3 percent above two years ago. The average yield, forecast at 285 cwt per acre, is up 8 cwt from last year and 5 cwt above 1997. Yields are expected to improve over last year in the most Central and Plains States, but turn out lower along the Atlantic Coast and in California. Potatoes were planted on time this spring in adequate moisture and early growth was good. Dry weather on the East Coast hurt some non-irrigated fields, but the overall crop is in good condition because of extensive use of irrigation. Harvest in Virginia was 23 percent completed by July 4, ahead of last year and ahead of normal. Maryland farmers are more than one-fourth into harvest. Alabama has had favorable conditions in the northern counties. Crop development is good in the mid section of the U.S. Missouri harvest is half finished in the "Boot Heel" area with yields reported to be excellent. Digging is expected to start in northwestern counties in a few weeks. Illinois potato growers are expecting good yields. Iowa and Nebraska had heavy rains this spring with some hail damage in western Nebraska fields. Colorado summer potatoes also received some hail damage but yields are expected to be slightly higher than last year. Growers in eastern New Mexico and the Texas High Plains expect good crops with improved yields over last year. California growers reported cool weather at planting but growth improved with warmer weather. Harvest is going to be about two weeks late. Reliability of July 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between June 25 and July 7 to gather information on expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in twelve States that accounted for 74 percent of the 1998 production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. In early fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year historical average head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threshed, and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be combined to an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and are harvested on the final visit. The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 14,100 wheat producers representing all major production areas. These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecasts. Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the 1979-1998 20-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 1.67 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.9 percent or approximately 32 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.3 percent or approximately 55 million bushels. Differences between the July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 28 million bushels, ranging from 6 million to 65 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-3843 Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688 Lance Honig - Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Dean Groskurth, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488 Howard Hill - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12, 1999. 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