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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
June 17, 2002
Prospects for summer crops and fire control in Colorado remain grim if the summer monsoon isn't strong and doesn't bring normal to above-normal precipitation. A persistent, multi-year drought has affected Colorado's 2002 winter wheat production as well as pastures, ranges, and hay production. Dry conditions have promoted numerous wildfires across the state and the mountainous regions of the Western United States.
Colorado's winter wheat crop is in much poorer condition than recent years crops, because of the drought. This poor condition is also reflected in this year's wheat production. On June 10, 2002, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced that 66 percent of Colorado's winter wheat crop was rated as very poor-to-poor. This is much worse than recent years. On June 12, 2002, NASS updated Colorado's winter wheat production numbers, pegging 2002 harvest area at 1.8 million acres, down from 2 million acres last year. NASS set Colorado's 2002 winter wheat average yield at 23 bushels/acre down from 2001 when Colorado wheat yielded an average of 33 bushels/acre. As a result, Colorado's 2002 winter wheat production is currently estimated to be 41.4 million bushels, down from the 66 million bushels produced during the 2001 growing season. The impact of this year's drought is also evident from the NASS ratings of pastures and rangelands during this Spring. On June 10, NASS reported that 69 percent of Colorado's pastures and range were very poor-to-poor. This is also much worse than rates seen in recent years.
Comparison of vegetation for this growing season with recent years indicates that Colorado is has much less vigorous vegetation this Spring compared with recent years. This can be expected considering the impact of this year's drought. Vegetation Index maps for May and June comparing 2001 with 2002, illustrate how much less vegetated Colorado is this year and identify the areas having greatest difference from year to year. While all the state is less green and drought affected this year, compared to last, the southeast quarter of the state shows the biggest difference. Visual analysis of satellite images also indicate that vegetation is down from recent years and the southeast quarter of the state is worst off. This is quite evident when comparing NOAA 16 satellite images from June 10, 2001 to June 11, 2002.
Colorado counties are grouped into six Crop Reporting Districts, groups having historically similar weather and planting and harvesting practices.
The primary agricultural interests of the Northwest & Mountain Crop District are cattle and sheep production and forestry. According to 1999 and 2000 NASS data, this district accounts for about 19 percent of the state's hay growing area and about 11 percent of it's production. It also accounts for about 1 percent of the state's winter wheat harvested area and production. Precipitation this year has been lower than recent years. Satellite images indicate that snow pack in the mountains is also down from recent years.
The Northeast Crop District agricultural interests include winter wheat, summer potatoes, irrigated corn, sugar beets, barley, hay, and cattle. Some of the country's largest cattle feedlots are located in the Northeast and East-Central Colorado crop districts. According to the 1999 and 2000 NASS data, the Northeast District accounts for 19 percent of Colorado's hay growing acreage and typically produces about 24 percent of the state's hay production. This District also produces about 19 percent of the state's winter wheat on about 19 percent of the state's harvested area. After a slow start during early 2002, precipitation through June 10, 2002 for the Northeast District of Colorado has overtaken cumulative amounts for 1999, 2000, and 2001. Due to reduced area and increased crop stress, satellite derived vegetation indexes are much lower this year compared to last year. Even though this District has some of the better condition winter wheat this year, based on vegetative index comparisons, wheat yields should be down from last year's level. Landsat images of Fort Morgan, Colorado are included to illustrate that vegetation as during May 2002 was not too different from May of 2001. Area for winter wheat and alfalfa hay, the orange fields, seems to be lower than last year. Also, there is visibly less water in the Platte River and less standing water on the May 15, 2002 scene.
The East Central Crop District primarily produces winter wheat, sorghum, cattle, hay, and dry beans. Based on 1999 and 2000 NASS data, this district accounts for 13 percent of the state's hay growing area and about 12 percent of the state's hay production. This district accounts for 66 percent the state's winter wheat area and about 65 percent of it's winter wheat production. The top three winter wheat producing counties are located in this district, while 4 and 5 are usually located in the Southeast District. Precipitation through June 10, 2002 for the East Central District is well below recent years'. According to visual analysis of satellite images through early June and observations during the 2002 Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour, the East Central Crop District contains some of the better winter wheat in Colorado. While this wheat condition is better than other parts of the state, lower than recent year's yields can be expected based on satellite derived vegetation index comparison. Landsat images of the Denver metropolitan area from April 26, 2001 and April 29, 2002 are provided to illustrate the poor wheat and hay conditions this year compared to last. The bright orange fields on the 2001 scene are winter wheat and hay, note that in 2002 there are much fewer bright orange fields and more straw colored and mottled fields. During the week of June 9 - 16, 2002, the Hayman Fire has consumed more than 100,000 acres in four counties straddling three crop districts and is the largest wildfire on record in Colorado. As of June 16, this fire is 35 percent contained. The area burned, as of June 11, 2002, southwest of Denver is visible on a NOAA 16 satellite image.
The Southwest Crop District primarily produces forest products, hay, sheep, and cattle. There are also some edible beans and a little winter wheat produced in this district. According to 1999 and 2000 NASS data, this district produces 17 percent of Colorado's annual hay crop on 17 percent of the harvested area. The Southwest District produces 1 percent of the state's winter wheat crop and accounts for 1 percent of the state's harvested area. Precipitation through June 10, 2002 for the Southwest District is well below recent years'. As of June 16, 2002, wildfires have consumed more than 20,000 acres near Durango adding to the state's fire woes.
The San Luis Valley is Colorado's fifth crop district. It is the largest and highest alpine valley in the world capable of producing controlled crops. The elevation of the Valley's floor varies from 7400 to 8000 feet above sea level and stretches roughly 60 miles from east to west and 120 miles from north to south. Each year about 77,000 acres of the Valley are dedicated to Fall potato production. Fall potatoes are planted during April and May and harvested from September into mid-October. This district also produces some very high yielding irrigated winter wheat and barley. It accounts for about 17 percent of the state's hay acreage, mostly irrigated alfalfa, which results in about 17 percent of the state's total hay production according to 1999 and 2000 NASS data. Precipitation again has been well below recent years levels. More precipitation would help refill reservoirs. Crops in the San Luis Valley are very evident from satellite imagery. Because of the predominance of irrigated crops, vegetation index values this year compare at just about the same level as last year through June 10, 2002. The good irrigated vegetation of the San Luis Valley is visible on a June 11, 2002, NOAA 16 satellite image. Planting, emergence, and establishment of 2002 irrigated crops are visible on the April 4, May 6, and May 22, 2002 Landsat images of the San Luis Valley.
The Southeast Crop District primarily produces wheat, sorghum, rye, sugar beets, cattle, sheep, and hay. Specialty fruit and vegetables are also produced along the Arkansas River, especially near Rocky Ford. According to 1999 and 2000 NASS data, the Southeast District includes the state's 4 and 5th ranked wheat producing counties. However, with the impact of the drought, dry-land wheat in this district should be disastrous at best this year. Historically, the Southeast District accounts for about 15 percent of the state's hay harvested area and about 19 percent of its hay production. It also accounts for about 13 percent of the state's wheat area and 13 percent of its production. Precipitation has been well below amounts seen in recent years, and vegetation index numbers are much lower than those seen in recent years. Comparison of Landsat images from Pueblo, Colorado illustrate the drop in vegetation vigor comparing May 15, 2002 with May 12, 2001. Also, the poorer condition of this year's winter wheat crop in Southeast Colorado is evident by comparing Landsat images from April 2001 to April 2002 at Lamar, Colorado.
