AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 903 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002 HAD TO MAKE A FEW UPDATES THIS EVENING. FIRST ONE WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOOKED LIKE THINGS MAY GO EARLIER TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DOWN TOWARD OUR/DDC CWA. HOWEVER...CAP HELD SO NOTHING DEVELOPED. REMOVED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SECOND PARAMETER IS THE WINDS. AS DRYLINE RETREATED RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS INCREASED RAPIDLY AND WINDY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPED. LATEST FSL RUCII INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINING CWA. WILL ALERT MID SHIFT FORECASTER TO CHANCE THAT WINDS MAY BE HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BUSY DAY WEDNESDAY ALONG THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A HIGH PROBABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STAY TUNED. .GLD...NONE. THEDE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 735 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002 AFD: SENT EARLY WITH AN EXPECTED UPDATED AFD LATER THIS EVENING. CLIBDL FOR JUN 17. ERRORONEOUS RECORD LOW FOR JUN 17 AT BDL DID NOT OCCUR. PARTIAL CORRECTIONS TO THE DATABASE OCCURRED WITH THE REISSUE AT 727PM. COMPLETE DATABASE CORRECTIONS SHUD SHOW UP EITHER WITH THE 830 PM CLI FOR TODAY OR THE EARLY WED 6/19 ISSUANCE. THE LOW YDY AT BDL WAS 50...NOT 35. OTRW...OVERALL FCST CONTS AS PER AFTN PKG OF 210 PM WITH LOCAL OVERNIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. 18Z/17 ETA/AVN-GFS...IN OUR CWA THE FOCUS OF THE INSTAB INDICES IS HFD/HAMPDEN COUNTY. THERE IS A PREDICTED SEDATING ISOTHERMAL LAYER NR 680MB THAT MAY CAP CONVECTION TO CLUSTERS OF RW+ BUT THE CONV TEMP OF 76/77 SHUD HAPPEN ARD 16Z. ETA SFC TEMPS HAVE 79 IN HFD...ADD A TAD OF SS AND SHUD REACH THE 12Z/17 NGM MOS VALUE OF 82F PREDICTED THERE FOR WED. OROGRAPHY AND CNV ZONE NR SEA BRZ CUD HELP ORGANIZE DEEPR CONVECTION. BEST TIME FOR AVBL PARMS APPEARS TO ME IN HFD COUNTY WITH SHWRS/POSS TSTMS ONGOING ARD NOON. TT AND KI SPIKE THERE ROUGHLY 21-23Z AT 35 ANBD 54 RESPECTIVELY ON THE ETA AND EVEN AVN HAS TT NR 50. SBLI WILL BE LOWER THAN IT WAS TDY...NR -6 VS TDYS -4 AS WILL 100 MB LI -3 VS +1. SO TOMORROW PROBABLY DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY FM TDY NR HFD-CEF AND MUCH FASTER THAN YDY. AXIS OF BEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO B OVR INTERIOR CT WITH AN ENE EXTENSION TO THE MA PIKE AND FROM NORFOLK CTY AND N BRISTOL COUNTIES W ACRS N RI. MODEL FOCUS APPEARS TO B HFD COUNTY WSWD. SMALL HAIL: WITH VILS POSSIBLE TO ~30 (EL NR 30 AND WBZ NR 9K)... SMALL HAIL POSS AND EARLY SHOW OF TSTMS EXPECTED. RFALL FROM SLOW MVG ERRATICLY MVG POSSIBLY SSE TO SSW CELLS CUD B LOCALLY NR 1" IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS AS PW IS NR 1.1". CAPE IS FCST TO BE 2 OR 3X GREATER THAN TDY. KBOX BACKUP FOR NEW INSTALL IS POSTPONED FOR WED. KBOX BEGINNING OF 5 DAY DETAILED MARINE FCST SIMILAR TO MPC...IS DELAYED TIL JULY 1. DRAG/MCJ --- SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED): AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE BUT SO FAR NOT MUCH HAPPENING UPSTREAM...NEAREST LTG IS OVR SRN PA. SAT PIX SHOW CU FIELD INCRSG INVOF CATSKILLS AND NRN PA...AND THIS IS AREA TO WATCH THRU LATE AFTN FOR ANY CNVTCV DVLPMNT. BOTH ETA/RUC CONT PREV TRENDS WITH INCRSG TT (L50S)...TQ (L20S) AND CAPE (500-1000) BUT K INDICES ARE LWR THAN YDA. 15Z RUC HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FM ITS ERLR FCSTS BUT STILL SHOWS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CT AND MERR VLYS THRU ERLY EVE. AM GOING TO MAKE FINAL DECISION FOR EVE ACTVTY BASED UPON 18Z RUC...BUT AM PLANNING TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME MNTN OF PCPN ACRS INTERIOR ZNS ERLY. MDLS ARE NOW MORE INSISTENT ON PCPN WED...AND IN FACT POTL FOR CNVTCN IS GREATER THAN TDA ON BOTH AVN/ETA. SOME TIMING DIFFS BTWN MDLS WITH AVN BRINGING IN PCPN DURG MRNG...ETA HOLDG OFF TIL AFTN. ALTHO GRAD IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT WEAK BNDRY REMAINS DRAPED OVR SRN NEW ENG WHICH SHUD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CNVTCN...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHWRS ERLY (SPCLY W) PER AVN SO WL BRING CHC POPS IN WED MRNG W AND BY AFTN E. XPCT TO SEE MOST OF ACTVTY FM AFTN INTO EVE WITH POTL FOR ISOLD SVR AS WET BULB ZERO REMAINS 7-8KFT WITH EL 20-25KFT. NO HEADLINES ON MARINE FCST. MID TERM (WED NGT-SAT): PATTN FINALLY QUIETS DOWN AS WEAK SFC BNDRY WASHES OUT AND SFC HI OFF COAST DOMINATES. LL FLO GRDLY TURNS SW BY FRI WHICH WL FINALLY GIVE US THE LONG-AWAITED WARMUP. NXT CDFNT COMING OUT OF GRTLKS FRI AFTN BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR FLO SAT...SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MNTN OF PCPN TIL SAT AFTN OR SAT NGT. RESTRICTED POPS TO RUFFLY MASS PIKE NWD WHERE BETTER LL CONV AND UPR SUPPORT PROGGED. LONG TERM (SUN-TUE): STAYING CLOSE TO 00Z/18 OPAVN WHICH KEEPS CLOSED UPR LO FAR ENUF S TO KEEP ITS EFFECTS AWAY FM FA...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGRMNT AMONG MAJORITY OF MED RANGE MDLS WITH THIS FEATURE. STG UPR RDG CENTERED OVR WV SUN MRNG SLWLY BLDS S BY DAY 7...PUTTING NERN STATES ON TOP OF RDG AND ALLOWING NRN STREAM TO DOMINATE. PLANNING ON CARRYING CHC POPS SUN NGT AS CDFNT EXITS COAST...THEN AGAIN MON NGT/TUE AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS GRTLKS AND WMFNT BECOMES QSTNRY OVR SRN NEW ENG AS IT BCMS PARALLEL TO UPR FLO. MEX TMPS CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT CUT BACK A FEW DEGS GIVEN XPCTD CLD CVR. BYD DAY 7...AVN KEEPS BNDRY IN PLACE MEANING AT LEAST DIURNAL CNVTCN LOOKS PROBABLE THRU MUCH OF NXT WEEK...BEFORE FNT BACKDOORS LATE IN WEEK WITH LARGE SFC HI OVR MARITIMES. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. JWD ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002 SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED): AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE BUT SO FAR NOT MUCH HAPPENING UPSTREAM...NEAREST LTG IS OVR SRN PA. SAT PIX SHOW CU FIELD INCRSG INVOF CATSKILLS AND NRN PA...AND THIS IS AREA TO WATCH THRU LATE AFTN FOR ANY CNVTCV DVLPMNT. BOTH ETA/RUC CONT PREV TRENDS WITH INCRSG TT (L50S)...TQ (L20S) AND CAPE (500-1000) BUT K INDICES ARE LWR THAN YDA. 15Z RUC HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FM ITS ERLR FCSTS BUT STILL SHOWS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CT AND MERR VLYS THRU ERLY EVE. AM GOING TO MAKE FINAL DECISION FOR EVE ACTVTY BASED UPON 18Z RUC...BUT AM PLANNING TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME MNTN OF PCPN ACRS INTERIOR ZNS ERLY. MDLS ARE NOW MORE INSISTENT ON PCPN WED...AND IN FACT POTL FOR CNVTCN IS GREATER THAN TDA ON BOTH AVN/ETA. SOME TIMING DIFFS BTWN MDLS WITH AVN BRINGING IN PCPN DURG MRNG...ETA HOLDG OFF TIL AFTN. ALTHO GRAD IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT WEAK BNDRY REMAINS DRAPED OVR SRN NEW ENG WHICH SHUD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CNVTCN...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHWRS ERLY (SPCLY W) PER AVN SO WL BRING CHC POPS IN WED MRNG W AND BY AFTN E. XPCT TO SEE MOST OF ACTVTY FM AFTN INTO EVE WITH POTL FOR ISOLD SVR AS WET BULB ZERO REMAINS 7-8KFT WITH EL 20-25KFT. NO HEADLINES ON MARINE FCST. MID TERM (WED NGT-SAT): PATTN FINALLY QUIETS DOWN AS WEAK SFC BNDRY WASHES OUT AND SFC HI OFF COAST DOMINATES. LL FLO GRDLY TURNS SW BY FRI WHICH WL FINALLY GIVE US THE LONG-AWAITED WARMUP. NXT CDFNT COMING OUT OF GRTLKS FRI AFTN BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR FLO SAT...SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MNTN OF PCPN TIL SAT AFTN OR SAT NGT. RESTRICTED POPS TO RUFFLY MASS PIKE NWD WHERE BETTER LL CONV AND UPR SUPPORT PROGGED. LONG TERM (SUN-TUE): STAYING CLOSE TO 00Z/18 OPAVN WHICH KEEPS CLOSED UPR LO FAR ENUF S TO KEEP ITS EFFECTS AWAY FM FA...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGRMNT AMONG MAJORITY OF MED RANGE MDLS WITH THIS FEATURE. STG UPR RDG CENTERED OVR WV SUN MRNG SLWLY BLDS S BY DAY 7...PUTTING NERN STATES ON TOP OF RDG AND ALLOWING NRN STREAM TO DOMINATE. PLANNING ON CARRYING CHC POPS SUN NGT AS CDFNT EXITS COAST...THEN AGAIN MON NGT/TUE AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS GRTLKS AND WMFNT BECOMES QSTNRY OVR SRN NEW ENG AS IT BCMS PARALLEL TO UPR FLO. MEX TMPS CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT CUT BACK A FEW DEGS GIVEN XPCTD CLD CVR. BYD DAY 7...AVN KEEPS BNDRY IN PLACE MEANING AT LEAST DIURNAL CNVTCN LOOKS PROBABLE THRU MUCH OF NXT WEEK...BEFORE FNT BACKDOORS LATE IN WEEK WITH LARGE SFC HI OVR MARITIMES. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. JWD ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002 FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF SHRA REACHING THE WRN FA. WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING E TWD CNTRL MT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE RIDING ENE THRU NCNTRL PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN LAKES TO NW QUEBEC WHILE TROF IS VERY SLOWLY LIFTING FROM THE ERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU SRN MANITOBA HAS TRIGGERED MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO NW MN. FARTHER S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS APPROACHING SW MN. 18Z AVN KEYS ON THE SW MN SHORTWAVE TONIGHT...SPINNING IT UP CONVECTIVELY AND BRINGING A BULLSEYE OF NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN INTO SW UPPER MI WED MORNING...SUSPICIOUS TO SAY THE LEAST. 18Z ETA/00Z RUC DO NOT SHOW THIS AND ARE THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS. DESPITE CLOSENESS OF SHRA UPSTREAM...LOOKS LIKE GOING DRY FCST SHOULD HOLD THRU NIGHT. SFC OBS SHOW A DRY SERLY FLOW INTO UPPER MI WHILE 00Z RAOBS AND PROFILER TRENDS SHOW MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO DAKOTAS/MN ON SRLY FLOW. RATHER TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 0.76 INCHES WHILE KINL/KMPX ARE ABOUT DOUBLE THAT WITH AROUND 1.4 INCHES. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING DEPICTS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. EFFECTS OF THIS DRIER AIR ARE EVIDENT AS LEADING ECHOES ON KDLH/KMPX RADARS HAVE FAILED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE PER SFC OBS...AND CLOUD BASES WITH THE ECHOES ARE ABOVE 10KFT. BELIEVE THIS TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD UP DURING THE NIGHT AS MORE OF A SERLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS PERSISTS INTO UPPER MI WITH SFC PRESSURES RISING TO THE E PER RECENT PRESSURE TENDENCY TRENDS AND MODEL FCST. THIS DUE TO HEIGHTS RISING IN NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND OVER FA PER RUC ANALYSIS AND ETA/RUC FCST. ALL THIS SUGGESTS UPSTREAM SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING FA...THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. MIN TEMPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT MAY NEED TO CUT A FEW DEGREES IN THE KEWEENAW ZONE AS KCMX AT 56 ALREADY. .MQT...NONE. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 415 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW A RDG OVR THE GRT LKS (12 HR H3 HGT RISES AOA 100M WITH SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H8) BTWN A FILLING TROF OVR THE E AND A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROF MOVG THRU THE PAC NW. THIS SHRTWV ACCOMPANIED BY 100KT H3 JET MAX AND 12 HR H3 HGT FALLS AOA 150M. SFC HI PRES/DRY AIR (12Z PWAT ARND 0.60 INCH AT INL/GRB) UNDER THE UPR RDG BRINGING A TRANQUIL WX DAY TO CWA...WITH DRY SELY TRAJECTORIES NOTED ACRS THE NW GRT LKS OUT OF HI CENTER OVR LK HURON. BUT HIGHER MSTR LURKING TO THE SW...WITH PWATS AOA 1 INCH FM BIS TO MPX. TSRA NOTED IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS...THE STRONGEST ONE IN MT AND ANOTHER IN ND...SHOOTING OUT OF MAIN TROF IN THE PAC NW AS THEY INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTER AIR. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF CNVCTN ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW SHRTWV. PRES GRADIENT PROGGED TO SHARPEN TNGT AS ADVANCING SHRTWVS CAUSES LWRG PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS WHILE MORE TENACIOUS RDG HANGS IN OVR THE NE CONUS UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE LKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS MOVG IN FM THE W. LEADING SMLR SCALE SHRTWVS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE NE INTO CAN IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HTS FARTHER W AND BLDG RDG IN THE LKS...WITH MODELS INDICATING NO IMPACT FM THESE ADVANCE SHRTWVS ON WX OVR CWA. FCST LLVL WNDS/TRAJECTORIES REMAIN OUT OF THE SSE THRU 12Z WED...SO THINK DRY AIR WL HOLD ITS GROUND TNGT UNDER RISING HGTS. SINCE NO MODEL...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ETA AT MOISTENING THE LLVLS...GENERATES QPF IN THE CWA TNGT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PCPN ACRS THE FAR W. BEST CHCS FOR TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE MUCH FARTHER S CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT IN NE IA/SE MN/SW WI...WHICH WOULD ACT TO INTERCEPT MSTR FLOWING TOWARD CWA. DEBRIS CLD FM UPSTREAM CNVCTN WL IMPACT WI BORDER/WRN ZNS...BUT SKIES WL BE MCLR FARTHER E. ALTHOUGH FLOW OF DRIER AIR WL CONT IN THE LLVLS...INCRSG WNDS WL HOLD TEMPS MUCH HIER THAN LAST NGT MINS. THE IMPACT WL BE GREATEST ACRS THE W...WHERE THE PRES GRADEINT WL BE SHARPER ALL NGT (ETA DEPICTS 45KT WND AS LO AS 2K FT AGL AT IWD OVRNGT) AND PWAT/UPR LVL MSTR INCRSES EARLIER. MOS MINS LOOK RSNBL...BUT WL TEND TO UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES OVR THE E SINCE DWPTS ARE SO LO (37 AT SAW AT 19Z). AVN BRUSHES SRN TIER ZNS WITH REMNANT PCPN FM MCS IT DVLPS ALG WARM FNT TO THE S TNGT...BUT THINK AVN SUFFERING FM USUAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM AND TOO STRG WITH SHRTWV/H4-2 DVGC IT PROGS TO MOVE ACRS NRN WI/SRN TIER CWA ON WED MRNG. BUT DEBRIS CLD FM CNVCTN WL BE MOST PREVALENT ACRS THE S AND W. ALTHOUGH ETA/NGM GENERATE QPF OVR THE WRN HALF OF CWA IN THE AFTN...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY BNDRY UNDER ACYC H85 FLOW/SUPPRESSED LK BREEZES...RISING H5 HGTS/TEMPS (TO -8C AT IWD BY 18Z) AND WITH MORE OF A DUE S SFC FLOW...THINK DAY WL BE DRY PER CNDN MODEL FCST...SO POPS UNDER GUIDANCE FCST. ETA AS USUAL APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING SFC DWPT TOWARD 67 AT IWD BY AFTN...ITS MODIFIED SDNG FOR TD OF 60 PER AVN GUIDANCE AT 18Z SHOWS CAPE/CIN DCRSG FM 670/-30 J/KG TO 150/-30 J/KG EVEN FOR TEMP UP TO 80. DEBRIS CLD FM CNVCTN TO THE SW WL LIMIT INSOLATION A BIT AND HOLD DOWN MAX TEMP/CAPE AS WELL. AVN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO INFLUENCED BY ITS FCST MRNG CNVCTN/THICKER DEBRIS CLD. FWC GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REALISTIC. XPCT BREEZY CONDITIONS AS INSOLATION MIXES STRG GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SFC. TMRW NGT...MAIN SHRTWV LIFTS NE INTO ONTARIO ON WRN FLANK OF UPR RDG AXIS OVR ERN LKS...DRAGGING SFC FNT INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. ALL BUT CNDN MODEL GENERATE SOME QPF OVR CWA WED NGT...ALBEIT LGT. THINK NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...FCST PWATS OVR 1.5 INCH...AND ARRIVAL OF SFC BNDRY WARRANTS INCLUSION OF POPS EVERYWHERE...HIEST OVR THE FAR W CLOSEST TO BNDRY. BUT LIFTING OF SHRTWV/DEEPEST MSTR INTO CAN WITH NEGLIGIBLE FALL OF H5 HGT/TEMP OVR CWA WOULD SUG CHCY POPS AND NO HIER. SPC OUTLOOK HAS WRN ZNS IN SLGT RISK AREA...BUT LINGERING HI MID LVL TEMPS IN ABSENCE OF STRG DYNAMICS A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE STRG H85 WNDS. TGT GRADIENT SWLY FLOW/MIXING AND HIER PWAT INDICATE MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO HIER NGM/ETA MOS GUIDANCE IN ORDER. WEAKENING SFC FNT WITH LOSS OF UPR DYNAMICS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIMP ACRS CWA ON THU AS WSWLY UPR FLOW BCMS MORE PARALLEL TO BNDRY ON WRN PERIPHERY OF RDG. AVN THE SLOWEST MODEL TO PUSH DRYING INTO THE W ON THU WITH WHAT APPEARS AS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SHRTWV RIDES NE ALG BNDRY AND INVIGORATES QPF ALG BNDRY. WL TEND TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING OF THE ETA GIVEN THE AVN'S PROBLEM WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...THE CNDN MODEL APPEARS RSNBL AS A COMPROMISE CLOSER TO THE ETA. WL DRY OUT THE W THU AFTN...BUT KEEP POPS ALL THU NGT ACRS THE E. THEN DRY EVERYWHERE ON FRI WITH SFC HI FCST TO BLD OVR THE NW GRT LKS BEHIND DISSOLVING FNT. EXTENDED MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE TREND TOWARD MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH WELL ABV NORMAL H5 HGTS FCST ACRS ESPECIALLY ERN NAMERICA. WITH CWA ON SRN FLANK OF MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACRS CAN AND TO N OF MEAN RDG/WARMEST AIR IN THE CNTRL CONUS...SOME ACTIVE TSRA WX PSBL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF SHRTWV PASSING TO N ON SAT...SO FCST SHRA/TSRA CHCS ON THAT DAY LOOKS ON TARGET. ECMWF/UKMET LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRYING/BLDG HI PRES OVR THE NW LKS ON SUN...BUT OPERATIONAL MRF/CNDN DEPICT A BNDRY IN VCNTY ALL DAY WITH SLOWER SHRTWV PROGRESSION. MRF/CNDN ENSEMBLES OFFER LTL RESOLUTION... SO WL MAINTAIN GOING FCST SHRA/TSRA CHCS ON SUN. OPERATIONAL MRF KEEPS BNDRY ARND ON MON... BUT SINCE MAJORITY OF MRF/CNDN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF HINT AT DRYING AND COOLING ON MON...WL CONT DRY FCST THEN. OUTLOOK FOR TUE IS UNCLEAR...BUT WITH CWA ON SRN FLANK OF ACTIVE UPR JET TO THE N... WL GO WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN. TEMPS THRU EXTENDED PD GENERALLY AOA MOS FCST...XCPT FOR MON WHEN TEMPS GENERALLY BLO MOS GUIDANCE. COORDINATED WITH APX. .MQT...NONE. KC mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1104 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. ONE LINGERING VORT CENTRAL NEAR SAGINAW BAY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH A WEAK HIGH OVER LAKE HURON. VISIBLE SATELLITE/METARS INDICATE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO OHIO NEAR THE WEAK BOUNDARY...ACC ON SATELLITE AND AS REPORTED BY OBSERVERS AT LAN/MBS/YQG/YZR. COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PULL EAST AS HEIGHTS BUILD WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE...WITH 12Z RUC INDICATING 500MB/700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 4C/3C RESPECTIVELY. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES STILL UP NEAR 6.5C/KM...DESPITE CAP DEVELOPING NEAR 700MB...WHICH DROPS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES TO 5C/KM. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM GRB LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA. MODIFIED FOR T/TD OF 75/52 YIELDS A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...NOT MUCH COMPARED TO THE 1500 J/KG FROM A MODIFIED DTX SOUNDING. DESPITE THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...RUC/ETA STILL POINTING TO 700MB RH OVER 70 PERCENT. CU EXPECTED WITH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH... WHICH MAY BE A CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON. RUC/ETA INDICATE 925MB CONVERGENCE NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL ETA-6 AND ETA-XX BOTH PRINT OUT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. TEND TO THINK THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT IS ONGOING. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PRECIP CHANCES. .DTX...NONE. BRAVENDER mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 915 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2002 EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN MT WITH A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN. IN THE LOW LEVELS, THE PRIMARY MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WRN TX THRU ERN NEB AND INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO SERN MT AND MN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP (REF. 19/00Z PLAINS SOUNDINGS) IN ZONES OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC ASCENT. THIS UPPER AIR DATA AND 19/00Z RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF OUR CWFA, AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING MT SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE, WE WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE POPS ACROSS OUR CNTRL ZONES AND ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE N. OTHERWISE, THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. MEAD --300 PM CDT ISSUANCE-- FCST CHALLENGE RMNS CONVECTION CHCS/COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TNGT... MAINLY THIS EVENING...THEN HOW FAR S CDFNT WILL PUSH LATE WED NGT/THU. MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH FNTL PSN INTO WED AFTN AND A BLEND WAS USED. AVN AND ETA CONTD THEIR RESPECTIVE TRENDS W/FRONT ON THU. AVN CONTD TO PUSH IT S THRU FCST AREA WHILE ETA MOVED IT TWD SRN ZONES THEN STALLED IT OR EVEN MOVED IT N A LTL. SINCE FNT WL BE MOVG S INTO RISING 500 MB HGTS...IN FACT ETA/AVN BOTH BUILD 5940 M HGT INTO SERN NEBR BY 00Z FRI...WL LEAN A LTL MORE TWD ETA THU. SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE SITUATION CONTS THE MAIN CHALLENGE AND THE QUESTION RMNS WHETHER CAP WL BREAK IN FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDING FM ETA BUFKIT SHOWED CAP ERODING AT OFK AND OMA 19Z-21Z. WARMING MID LVL TEMPS THEN BROUGHT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BACK TO OMA BY 00Z WHILE MOISTURE INCREASED FAST ENOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPS TO KEEP LTL OR NO CIN AT OFK. BASED ON THIS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER POPS NRN ZONES. HOWEVER...LATEST LAPS SHOWED A MUCH HIGHER CIN AT 19Z THAN 12Z ETA OR EVEN THE LATEST RUC FCST. AND LATEST RUC DIDN'T LOWER CIN BLO 40 J/KG UNTIL 00Z-03Z TIME PD BUT THEN DVLPD ITS PCPN N OF FCST AREA. WILL STILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS NRN ZONES BECAUSE OF THESE TRENDS...BUT WL NOT GO IN LIKELY CAT OR MENTION SVR UNLESS CONVECTION WOULD DVLP BFR ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. ALTHO IF STORMS DO OCCUR IN FCST AREA THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SHEAR EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR SVR STORMS. CAP IS FCST TO RMN AT LNK AND THEN EVEN BUILDS TWD 04Z SO WL LEAVE SERN NEBR ZONES DRY. PREV FCST LOWS LOOK GOOD. WINDY AND WARM/HOT CONDS LOOK LIKELY ON WED. ETA/NGM 850 MB TEMPS WOULD EVEN SUPPORT UPR 90S AT LNK AND EVEN OFK IF FNT WOULD HOLD OFF. AVN RMNS THE COOLER MODEL BUT EVEN IT SUGGESTS LOWER 90S SW. ACTUALLY ETA MOS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WL ADJ FCST UPWARD TO THESE NUMBERS. FEEL THERE WILL BE NO CONVECTION AND LTL CLOUDS AT LEAST FM MID MORNING THRU MID AFTN SO MIXING DOWN 850 MB WINDS SHOULD POSE NO PRBLM. WL MENTION WINDY MOST ZONES...SPCLY SINCE WINDS HAVE EVEN REACHED THAT CRITERIA TDA. WL COUNT ON FRONT REACHING NEAR OFK BY LATE AFTN TO CONT AFTN TSTMS CHCS NWRN ZONES. WL LEAVE ROFA DRY. WITH FRONT PUSHING CLOSE TO OMA WED NGT...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...FEEL A BOOST IN POPS IS WARRANTED. IN FACT WL GO LIKELY CATEGORY NWRN ZONES. EVEN THOUGH FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO SERN NEBR...WL KEEP SOME MENTION OF STORMS THERE AS A FEW COULD BE GENERATED BY OUTFLOW AHD OF FNT. THEN ON THU LEANING MORE TWD ETA WOULD HOLD THE FRONT NEAR OMAHA. THUS WL GO MORE WITH ETA MOS S OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY JUST IN CASE FNT DROPS FTHR S THAT EXPECTED. ETA/NGM AND AVN MOS FAIRLY CLOSE NRN ZONES AND WL RAISE TEMPS A LTL TWD THOSE NUMBERS FAR N. BOTH ETA EXTENSION AND AVN LIFT FNT MOSTLY N OF FCST AREA BY FRI AFTN. THUS WL ONLY MENTION MORNING TSTMS N AND RAISE TEMPS A LTL ALL AREAS. DAYS 4-7...ON SAT REMOVED SLGT CHC TSTMS AND RAISED TEMPS ALL ZONES AS BOTH ECMWF AND AVN FCST UPR RIDGING W/LTL CHC OF PCPN. BOTH MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED SOME WK WAVE PSBLY KNOCKING DOWN UPR HGTS A LTL SUN...ALTHO AVN WAS FTHR N...SO KEPT SMALL POPS IN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. MODELS DIVERGED A LTL MON WITH ECMWF HOTTER/DRIER THAN AVN WHICH BROUGHT ANOTHER WK FNT THRU. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THEN TO CHANGE PREV FCST SO LEFT NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH ALONE AND CONTD THESE CONDITIONS INTO TUE. CHERMOK .OMA...NONE. MEAD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2002 FCST CHALLENGE RMNS CONVECTION CHCS/COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TNGT... MAINLY THIS EVENING...THEN HOW FAR S CDFNT WILL PUSH LATE WED NGT/THU. MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH FNTL PSN INTO WED AFTN AND A BLEND WAS USED. AVN AND ETA CONTD THEIR RESPECTIVE TRENDS W/FRONT ON THU. AVN CONTD TO PUSH IT S THRU FCST AREA WHILE ETA MOVED IT TWD SRN ZONES THEN STALLED IT OR EVEN MOVED IT N A LTL. SINCE FNT WL BE MOVG S INTO RISING 500 MB HGTS...IN FACT ETA/AVN BOTH BUILD 5940 M HGT INTO SERN NEBR BY 00Z FRI...WL LEAN A LTL MORE TWD ETA THU. SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE SITUATION CONTS THE MAIN CHALLENGE AND THE QUESTION RMNS WHETHER CAP WL BREAK IN FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDING FM ETA BUFKIT SHOWED CAP ERODING AT OFK AND OMA 19Z-21Z. WARMING MID LVL TEMPS THEN BROUGHT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BACK TO OMA BY 00Z WHILE MOISTURE INCREASED FAST ENOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPS TO KEEP LTL OR NO CIN AT OFK. BASED ON THIS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER POPS NRN ZONES. HOWEVER...LATEST LAPS SHOWED A MUCH HIGHER CIN AT 19Z THAN 12Z ETA OR EVEN THE LATEST RUC FCST. AND LATEST RUC DIDN'T LOWER CIN BLO 40 J/KG UNTIL 00Z-03Z TIME PD BUT THEN DVLPD ITS PCPN N OF FCST AREA. WILL STILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS NRN ZONES BECAUSE OF THESE TRENDS...BUT WL NOT GO IN LIKELY CAT OR MENTION SVR UNLESS CONVECTION WOULD DVLP BFR ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. ALTHO IF STORMS DO OCCUR IN FCST AREA THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SHEAR EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR SVR STORMS. CAP IS FCST TO RMN AT LNK AND THEN EVEN BUILDS TWD 04Z SO WL LEAVE SERN NEBR ZONES DRY. PREV FCST LOWS LOOK GOOD. WINDY AND WARM/HOT CONDS LOOK LIKELY ON WED. ETA/NGM 850 MB TEMPS WOULD EVEN SUPPORT UPR 90S AT LNK AND EVEN OFK IF FNT WOULD HOLD OFF. AVN RMNS THE COOLER MODEL BUT EVEN IT SUGGESTS LOWER 90S SW. ACTUALLY ETA MOS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WL ADJ FCST UPWARD TO THESE NUMBERS. FEEL THERE WILL BE NO CONVECTION AND LTL CLOUDS AT LEAST FM MID MORNING THRU MID AFTN SO MIXING DOWN 850 MB WINDS SHOULD POSE NO PRBLM. WL MENTION WINDY MOST ZONES...SPCLY SINCE WINDS HAVE EVEN REACHED THAT CRITERIA TDA. WL COUNT ON FRONT REACHING NEAR OFK BY LATE AFTN TO CONT AFTN TSTMS CHCS NWRN ZONES. WL LEAVE ROFA DRY. WITH FRONT PUSHING CLOSE TO OMA WED NGT...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...FEEL A BOOST IN POPS IS WARRANTED. IN FACT WL GO LIKELY CATEGORY NWRN ZONES. EVEN THOUGH FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO SERN NEBR...WL KEEP SOME MENTION OF STORMS THERE AS A FEW COULD BE GENERATED BY OUTFLOW AHD OF FNT. THEN ON THU LEANING MORE TWD ETA WOULD HOLD THE FRONT NEAR OMAHA. THUS WL GO MORE WITH ETA MOS S OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY JUST IN CASE FNT DROPS FTHR S THAT EXPECTED. ETA/NGM AND AVN MOS FAIRLY CLOSE NRN ZONES AND WL RAISE TEMPS A LTL TWD THOSE NUMBERS FAR N. BOTH ETA EXTENSION AND AVN LIFT FNT MOSTLY N OF FCST AREA BY FRI AFTN. THUS WL ONLY MENTION MORNING TSTMS N AND RAISE TEMPS A LTL ALL AREAS. DAYS 4-7...ON SAT REMOVED SLGT CHC TSTMS AND RAISED TEMPS ALL ZONES AS BOTH ECMWF AND AVN FCST UPR RIDGING W/LTL CHC OF PCPN. BOTH MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED SOME WK WAVE PSBLY KNOCKING DOWN UPR HGTS A LTL SUN...ALTHO AVN WAS FTHR N...SO KEPT SMALL POPS IN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. MODELS DIVERGED A LTL MON WITH ECMWF HOTTER/DRIER THAN AVN WHICH BROUGHT ANOTHER WK FNT THRU. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THEN TO CHANGE PREV FCST SO LEFT NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH ALONE AND CONTD THESE CONDITIONS INTO TUE. .OMA...NONE. CHERMOK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1001 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002 WILL UPDATE ZFP TO ADJUST WINDS. LATEST MESO MODELS AND 18Z RUNS INDICATE COASTAL TROF WILL SHARPEN ALONG COAST TONIGHT BUT REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. SEVERAL SHORT WVS JUST UPSTREAM TO MOVE ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND PLENTY OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR UPSTREAM AS WELL. CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR POPS AND TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST FOR WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS. CWF: LATEST RUC PREFERRED FOR WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING E-NE OVER MARINE AREA AS TROF SHARPENS OFF COAST. .MHX...NONE. JBM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE 1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002 UPDATE TO UP POPS FROM I-80 SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. RUC PROPAGATES FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND BLOWS UP CONVECTION QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY AS FCST SOUNDINGS DON'T SUPPORT SEVERE. INCREASED CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-80 AS WELL. KNOCKED DOWN TEMPS A BIT WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. .CTP...NONE. DIRIENZO pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY 245 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002 FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TSTM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX. UPR LOW MOVG EWD ACRS THE PAC NW ATTM...WITH WATER VAPOR DEPICTING JET STREAK ENTERING NRN ROCKIES. BROAD TROF ACRS DAKOTAS WITH SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WINDS ACRS THE SD PLAINS FROM EARLY MRNG TSTMS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE CAP GENERALLY S OF I-90 OVR WRN SD...AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE OF THIS BREAKING THIS EVE. APRCH JET STREAK SPARKING MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NWRN ZONES...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THIS AFTN/EVE AS CAP IS RAPIDLY ERODING IN THIS REGION. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE LATER THIS EVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AREA...AND STRONG SHEAR/HI LCL'S SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. IN A NUTSHELL...EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS NORTH OF I-90 THIS EVE. SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE LATER TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH AS STRONG CDFNT SWEEPS ACRS REGION...ALLOWING CAP TO BE OVERCOME. PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END DURG THE MRNG AS CDFNT/INSTABILITY MOV E. WILL HAVE TO PUT UP WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDS IN THE AM AS NARROW BAND OF 5-7MB PRES RISES SPREAD ACRS AREA BEHIND CDFNT...ALTHOUGH OPPOSING GEOSTROPHIC/ISALLOBARIC COMPONENTS SHOULD KEEP BLO HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. OTHER THAN A FEW -SHRA WED AHEAD OF UPPER TROF...LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THU WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER TROF. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AVN DEPICTS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. SFC LOW DVLPG ACRS SD ON FRI COULD BRING MORE SVR WX TO AREA...AND BEARS WATCHING. EXTENDED...UNSETTLED PATTERN THRU SUN...THEN DRY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS RETURNING REGION TO HOT AND DRY WEATHER FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. .UNR...NONE. JOHNSON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY 1000 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002 SHORT WAVE/CONVECTION MOVG EAST OF CWFA ATTM. WK SFC TROF EXTENDS N-S ACRS CNTRL DAKOTAS. FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TSTM CHANCES...AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM BCMG SVR. BEST CAPE TDY ACRS SCNTRL ZONES. HOWEVER...FCST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFTN CIN AOA 50J/KG. WITH MINIMAL UPPER LVL FORCING...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLD TSTMS. LESS CAPPING IN PLACE ACRS REMAINDER OF ZONES...BUT MINIMAL CAPE AND LACK OF FORCING TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTN MAY ROTATE. BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS REMAIN THIS EVE/TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG/N OF I-90 AS POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. .UNR...NONE. JOHNSON sd UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 840 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002 .SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. .DISCUSSION...THE STUBBORN PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW IS FINALLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT...THE CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AT 01Z PER WV LOOP. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF UTAH IN AREAS OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER...KMTX CURRENTLY PICKING UP LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE SLC AREA...EXTENDING FROM NE TOOELE COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO JUAB COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NW UTAH...AND EXTENDS SW INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOVING SE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS FROM A FAST MOVING RIPPLE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PAC NW SYSTEM...WHICH MOVED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND IS NOW IN CENTRAL NEVADA. RUC PICKS THIS UP AS WELL AS HINTS OF IT IN THE LATEST MESO 300 MB ISOTACH PROG VALID 03Z. LATEST GOES DERIVED PRECIP WATER SHOWS A RELATIVE MAX AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW UTAH SW INTO NEVADA...ALSO SHOWING A RELATIVE LI MIN IN THE SAME AREA. NOT MUCH HITTING THE GROUND WITH THESE CELLS...MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHTNING...A FEW SPRINKLES AND A LOT OF VIRGA. VERY LITTLE GOING ON IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. ATMOS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY DOWNSTREAM OF AREA IN NORTHERN NEVADA. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO ADDRESS ACTIVITY IN WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND REMOVE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT. WILL ALSO TWEAK SKY COVER A FEW PLACES. SLC 1111 CDC ---- JACKSON .SLC...NONE. ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA 1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002 WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE VA/MD ZONES AS TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY...THIS SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING THROUGH OH/PA PER THE LATEST WV/IR STLT LOOPS. WEAK FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE (DPVA/QS CONVERGENCE)...ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL THERMAL EFFECTS (MOUNTAIN/MARINE LAYER STABILITY OR MESO-HIGHS W AND E WITH ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE IN BTWN) WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT BACK N INTO THE VA COASTAL PLAIN. MARGINAL INSTBY AND OVERALL DRY AIRMASS/LOWER INSTBY WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED OVER VA/MD THIS AFTN...THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20% POPS. CAPES IN THIS REGION PER MODIFIED KWAL/KLWX SOUNDINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BTWN 1000-1500 J/KG. WILL ALSO KEEP SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES (30%) OVER NE N CAROLINA... GIVEN INCREASED 850-500 MB LIFT FROM A SRN STREAM VORT LOBE LIFTING INTO THE CAROLINAS (WHICH OF THE MODELS THE RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON). INSTBY POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE HIGHER GIVEN THE MORE LOW-MID LEVEL MSTR AVAILABILITY (K INDICES INTO THE LOWER 30S). MODIFIED KMHX SOUNDING FOR AN 82/67 TEMP/DWPT REGIME YIELDS CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND LI'S AROUND -6C. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THOUGH WILL LIMITED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD ALONG THE UPPER JET AXIS. THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON SURFACE BASED HEATING...WHILE LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE MICROBURST POTENTIAL (WBZ HEIGHTS ~11.5 KFT) AS WELL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (5.5 C/KM OR LESS). MARINE FCST...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES. .AKQ... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. HURLEY va EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 215 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 ...WET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND... CURRENTLY...METARS INDICATE WEAK INVERTED SFC PRES TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH FL NE-WARD ALONG THE SE US COAST. THE ATLC SFC RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED TO THE POINT THAT ALL OF FL (AS WELL AS THE ERN GOMEX ADJACENT WRN ATLC AND SE STATES) IS UNDER ESE/SE WIND FLOW. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE BOTH L70S ALREADY...OWING TO THE TUE AFTNN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED MEAN PWATS 2" OVER ALL BUT THE SRN PENIN WHERE THEY WERE A COUPLE TENTHS LOWER. LOOKING ALOFT...IR TIME LAPSE SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CI/CS CANOPY OVER ALL BUT THE SRN CWA HAS BEEN THINNING THE LAST FEW HRS. WATER VAPOR/ RUC VORT ANLYS SHOWS ANOTHER MINOR VORT RIPPLE INVOF THE YUCATAN IN THE BASE OF THE GOMEX TROF. KMLB 88D SHOWS A FEW SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR LAKE KISM WITH A NARROW "FINGER" OF STRATIFORM RAIN EXTENDING NE FROM KPGD TWD THE KISM RIVER...BORNE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM STORMS OFFSHORE VENF1. OVERALL THE WHOLE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO PROPAGATE NWD A BIT. THE T-WAVE NOTED IN LAST NIGHTS AFD IS NOW NEAR 75W WITH INCREASING NWD COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT (NRN EXTENT APPEARS TO BE ~25-26N BASED ON IR). TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS CWA IN DEEP MOISTURE WITH SE SFC FLOW/SW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUING. CWA ALSO REMAINS SQUARELY WITHIN THE RR QUAD OF THE H25 JET. MODELS DON'T APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO THE SW TOO WELL...BUT EXTRAPOLATING MOTION ON WATER VAPOR BRINGS IT NNE WITH THE FEATURE GENERATING SOME SYNOPTIC UVM ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO ARGUING WITH THE LIKELY POPS IN THE ZFP FOR TODAY. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL LINGER AND THEN "PANCAKE OUT" INTO LIGHT/MOD DEBRIS RAIN (MUCH LIKE TUE NIGHT) ACROSS THE CWA. SRN CWA MAY SEE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE NRN FRINGE OF THE TWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU AS IT PASSES 80W...AND WE MAY WIND UP NEEDING TO TWEAK POPS UP SOME FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE COS. THU/FRI...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE SRN END OF THE ERN CONUS TROUGH PINCHING OFF INTO A CLOSED H50-H25 LOW AROUND 18Z THU (THOUGH SHOWING 30-40M HEIGHT DIFFS IN STRENGTH) ...THEN DRIFTING IT SW OVER THE HEART OF DIXIE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WHILE THIS IS STARTING TO OCCUR EARLY ON...INFUSION OF SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY FROM THE TWAVE TO THE SOUTH... HELPS SHARPEN UP THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE STATE. PWATS STAY AOA 1.8". LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ONCE AGAIN...AND AM TEMPTED TO NUDGE UP TO 70 FOR THE SOUTH GIVEN PWATS PROGGED AOA 2.0" THERE. UPPER LOW REACHES THE NE GOMEX FRI...WITH LIGHT/MOD SE FLOW AND MRH PROGS AOA 80%. MAV POPS ARE IN THE M50S...AND IMHO GOOD CHC/LIKELY IS WARRANTED ONCE AGAIN (50 COAST/60 INLAND). SAT-TUE...AVN INSISTS ON KEEPING MRH NEAR/ABOVE 80% SAT/SUN WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINING LIGHT SOUTH. THE ECM IS BACKED MORE TO E/ESE. ESE. UNLESS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AS SHOWN BY THE ECM... COMPONENT...I DON'T SEE US DRYING OUT. WILL SEE WHAT THE AVN POST H120 HAS TO OFFER. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL PRETTY MUCH COLLAPSE FRI/SAT (H85-H50 MEAN FLOW WEAKENS BELOW 10KT) SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR THOSE DAYS...AND REALLY DON'T SEE ALL THAT MUCH OF A LETUP FOR SUNDAY. COORD WITH TBW/MIA/TAFB. THX TO ALL. MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS - CURRENT OR FCST. WINDS RANGING BETWEEN ESE-SSE U/F/N . LITTLE IF ANYTHING TO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT CWF. PRELIMINARY CCF... DAB TT 085/071 086/071 086 74646 MCO TT 087/072 088/072 087 74646 MLB TT 085/073 086/073 085 64646 60= .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 245 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2002 DRYLINE HAS RETREATED BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ACROSS ALL OF CWA. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WILL SWEEP OUT OVER PLAINS DURING THE DAY. SFC WILL RESPOND BY TAKING A LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST INTO DAKOTAS/MN WHILE COOL FRONT SETTLES INTO NW KANSAS. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL ACT AS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO ETAKF AND RUC. OTHER MODELS IMPLY THE BIGGER SHOW WILL BE POST FRONTAL AFTER NOCTURNAL JET GETS ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW IN LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WENT WITH 50-60 POPS TONIGHT IN LIGHT OF THIS. NEW MESOETA IS A BIT SLOWER WITH SPEED OF COOL FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...PLACING IT NEAR GLD AROUND 00Z. THUS...WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT IN NORTH PART OF CWA...THEN BRING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BRING A DECENT COOLDOWN AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...COOL FRONT DOES NOT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT...SO TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE CURRENT SHOTGUN LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DRY THINGS OUT AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK. .GLD...NONE. 19/DLF ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 155 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP OVERLAID WITH LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS UPPER TROFFING FROM WESTERN NY DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE TROF SPINNING THROUGH WESTERN AL WITH GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UP THROUGH THE GULF STREAM. RADAR LOOP SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IR LOOP SHOWS MORE STORMS FORMING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. THIS BATCH OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTING THE ZONES BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN A CONSENSUS THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...PINCHING OFF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST. ETA IS FORECASTING THIS UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO GA BY 12Z FRI MORNING. ETA IS DEFINITELY THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH AVN GOING NEAR 70 PERCENT POPS THROUGH 60HRS. WHILE AN INVERTED TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...LIKE ETAS SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS AND WILL TREND WITH THAT MODEL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL STARTING TONIGHT SHOULD BE FARTHER NORTH INTO NC AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE GOOD MOISTURE FETCH...CONVERGENCE AND 850 THETA E RIDGING TAKES PLACE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS DAYTIME HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WORKS WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA TO PROVIDE SCATTERED CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS ARE A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS HIGHS NEAR 80...WILL KEEP WITH MID 80S AS ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL LET TEMPS SOAR. EXTENDED...AVN KEEPS THIS SAME UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY FOR THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS...A CHANCE OF SH/TS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AS DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE AVN ALSO HINTS AT KEEPING A WEAK SFC TROF NEAR THE AREA. MARINE...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RIGHT NOW WITH SEAS AT 2 TO 3 FEET. WWIII IS NOT ADVERTISING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE UNTIL MAYBE FRI OR SAT WHEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT JUST A BIT ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND BOTH THE ETA AND AVN HAVE WINDS INCREASING INTO CAUTION LEVELS. WILL TREND WIND AND SEAS UP TOWARD THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARM 20-60 NM GA ZONE. IF ANY SCA CONDITIONS DO OCCUR...THEY WILL BE BORDERLINE. CHS 84 69 84 70 / 60 40 50 30 SAV 84 70 84 71 / 60 40 50 30 CHL 81 72 81 72 / 60 40 50 30 NBC 83 70 84 71 / 60 40 50 30 RBW 85 68 85 68 / 50 30 40 20 .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. PY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 405 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2002 FCST FOCUS ON SHRA CHCS THIS AM...THEN TSTMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHCS WILL BE TIED MAINLY TO PROGRESSION OF 850 MB FEATURES AND ABOVE. CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN MN/IA ASSOC WITH SHRT WV TROF DEPICTED ON RUC...ON NOSE OF BEST 850 MB FLOW...IN AXIS OF BEST SFC MOISTURE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 60S. SD MCC RUNNING ALONG 850 MB WRM FNT. MODELS DAMPEN ENERGY FM MN/IA SHRT WV AS IT MOVES NE INTO MEAN RDG POSITION. WL PUT CHC OF SHRA THIS AM IN WRN CWA...THEN WAIT FOR SD COMPLEX TO BRING PCPN TO NW CWA THIS AFTN. BEST CHC OF PCPN FOR REST OF SRN WI IS WITH LOW LVL FLOW STEERING INTO STATE TNT AHD OF MID LVL TROF AND WKNG SFC FNT THAT CROSS WI OVERNIGHT TNT INTO THU. NEW MESOETA HANGS BNDRY FARTHER NORTH THU NGT INTO FRI...CLOSER TO 00Z AVN POSITION. WL KP CHC OF PCPN THRU THU NGT IN SRN 1/2 OF CWA... BUT PUSH IT SOUTH OF CWA WITH BNDRY FOR FRI...THO 12Z RUNS SHUD BE WATCHED FOR FNT REMAINING STNRY IN/NR SRN WI. TMP GUID LOOKS OK FOR THE MOST PART. .MKX...NONE. $$ REM wi EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 MOIST UNSTABLE AMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE...12Z RAOBS MEASURED 1.7"-2.0" PW VALUES ACROSS THE STATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CAPS...H50 TEMPS -9C/-10C...AND A CONVECTIVE TEMP ~87F. VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SHOWS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...THOUGH THE LATEST RUC80 ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE IS POORLY DEFINED BLO H925. H25 JET WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY FOR PRECIP...AND A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE WRN PENINSULA IS GENERATING A DENSE CI DECK OVER THE CWA. THE CI DECK WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF AFTN CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY LVLS...ONLY A SMALL SPARK IS NEEDED. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED SFC-H65 LYR...WILL BUMP SRN CWA POPS TO THE LIKELY CAT...REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD. MARINE...CANAVEL BUOYS MEASURING S/SE WINDS 10-15KTS W/3-5FT SEAS... SPGF/LKWF C-MAN STATIONS HAVE E/SE WINDS AOB 10KTS...SAUF C-MAN WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NO HIGHLIGHTS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW AVIATION/FIRE WX...GLITTO fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1015 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 WL BE UPDATING FCST TO INCLUDE CHC SHWRS/TSTMS BOS VCNTY AND REMOVE TIMING FM REST OF ZNS. SHWRS HAVE DVLPD ALG LL CONV ZN ACRS NCNTRL AND ERN MA. RUC WAS A LTL ERLY IN DVLPG ACTVTY THIS MRNG THRUT FA...BUT 12Z RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ITS LOCATION. ALTHO CURRENT ACTVTY MAY DIMINISH OVR NXT COUPLE OF HRS...XPCT MORE SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DVLP NEAR BNDRY THRU AFTN AS AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE...WITH OROGRAPHICS COMING INTO PLAY AS WELL SINCE FLO REMAINS WEAK. RUC EVEN SHOWS MONDADNOCKS AND WORCESTER HILLS AS PRIME LOCS FOR MORE DVLPMNT THIS AFTN. WET BULB ZERO HGTS 7-8KFT AND EL ARND 25KFT SUGGEST SMALL HAILER IN STGR STORMS...ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT LCLY HVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVERS AND POTL FOR BACKBLDG. TSTMS NOW MOVG THRU NJ ARE PRBLY A PRECURSOR TO MORE ACTVTY DVLPG ACRS ERN PA THIS AFTN WITH APCH OF S/W. MDLS INDCT SOME OF THIS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO SERN NY AND PERHAPS OUR NRN CT ZNS LATE THIS AFTN OR ERLY EVE. ERLY THOUGHTS ON LONGER TERM (MON-WED): 00Z/19 OPAVN SOLN AGREES WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOOKS MOST RSNBL...TAKING UPR RDG OVR SERN STATES AND PUSHING IT OFFSHR BY DAY 7. CDFNT ACRS GRTLKS MON MRNG SAGS S AND SHUD END UP ACRS MIDATLC TUE. AM PLANNING ON CHC SHWRS MON FOLLOWED BY DRY WX TUE AS WK RDG BLDS IN. WRN END OF FNT LIFTS BACK N AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS GRTLKS WED SO WL REINTRO CHC SHWRS ALL ZNS. STAYED CLOSE TO MEX TMPS. .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. JWD ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1058 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 MESO SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN LOOKS TO BE DISIPATING. ONLY MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF BEGINNING TO INVADE NW LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING THIN CIRRUS, SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY IN NW LOWER FOR NOW. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AS WELL. WILL BE TAKING OUT THE ONSHORE WIND ON THE LAKE MICHGAN SIDE OF N LOWER AND ALONG WHITEFISH BAY WITH THE 950MB WIND AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS (KAPX SOUNDING, RUC AND ETA) LAKE BREEZES ARE UNLIKELY. .APX...NONE. LUTZ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1014 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER OUR CWA WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INLAND WITH LOW AND MID CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. RADAR SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF PCPN OFFSHORE...AN AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PAMLICO RIVER E-NE TO THE OUTER BANKS...AND ANOTHER AREA FROM THE EASTERN 1/2 OF CARTERET COUNTY E TO THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE. 12Z MHX SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE WITH PW 1.81, K INDEX OF 32, AND LI OF -4. WITH INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WE HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PCPN OVER LAND BUT GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW, GOOD H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER COASTAL AND SOUNDS SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AM RELUCTANT TO DECREASE POPS. SPS OUT FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WITH PW OVER 1.5" AND STORM MOTION 5 KT OR LESS WILL KEEP THIS IDEA GOING. DO NOT PLAN ON AN UPDATE AT THIS TIME. MARINE: SFC STREAMLINES SHOW REFLECTION OF VORT APPROACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF CAPE FEAR. AS FEATURE MOVES NE THINK TROF AXIS OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INLAND A BIT AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SE IN THE WATERS S OF HATTERAS. RUC40 SEEMS TO BE HINTING AT THIS AND IS INITIALIZED WELL WITH WSPDS AND DIR. WILL LIKELY KEEP E WINDS FOR WATERS N OF CAPE HATTERAS AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SEA BRZ MCHZM AT BAY TODAY AND VEERING OF WIND WILL BE SLOWER TO EVOLVE NWD. SEAS GNRLY 2 TO 4 FEET UNDER LGT S SWELL AND LGT TO MDT CHOP. $$ WS/COLBY nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 926 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 SFC TROF STILL OFFSHORE THIS AM WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP JUST TEASING THE SE NC COASTLINE. THIS AREA WILL PULL AWAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND LATEST RUC SHOWS THE TROF REMAINING OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP THIS AFTN WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL ADJUST POPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. PLAN ON A 30-50 RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE HELD DOWN BY MORE OF A NE SFC FLOW. WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL FL FROM THE GULF SHOULD BRING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP BY TONIGHT. CWF: WILL INCORPORATE MORE OF A NE DIRECTION INTO FIRST PERIOD AND SCATTER OUT THE PRECIP. FCSTID = 33 .ILM... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. CRM nc SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 928 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2002 WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS DOMINATING THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. THE TRADE WINDS/LOW LEVEL JET ARE PULLING TROPICAL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL BEND. SFC AND 700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH NEAR THE COAST IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS. RUC INDICATED 850MB HORIZONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA IS WANING, SO SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INLAND. ANY SHORT LIVED SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE HANDLES WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. 06/08 PRECIOUS DISCUSSION...... OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MEXICO AND THE SWRN US WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SERN US WILL HELP MIX GULF MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER LA AND EAST TX. ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF MOVING THE UPPER LOW WESTWARD TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OVER TX THIS WEEKEND, THE GENERAL WEAK EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RIDGE STRENGTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A BENIGN DAY TODAY, BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND EAST TX SHOULD HAVE REACHED THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR 10-20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. LACK OF RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE UPSTREAM REGIONS OF EAST TX/LA KEEPS ME FROM GOING AS HIGH AS THE AVN QPF. WILL CALL FOR A COMPROMISE WITH THE DRIER ETA AND EXPECT A GRADUAL PENETRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITHOUT A HAVING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE FOR MODELS TO AGREE UPON, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, BUT WILL ALSO SPREAD THE CHANCES INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGH TEMPS AS THE MOISTURE INVADES, BUT THE AIR SHOULD STILL FEEL JUST AS HOT. PRELIMS... AUS 093/070/093/070/091 00-11 DRT 100/078/098/077/096 0000- SAT 095/073/093/073/092 00-11 .EWX...NONE 18 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1020 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 I WILL HOLD ON TO THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RUC INDICATES A VORTMAX ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE BALLPARK. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. .END/ ELW wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 145 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 AREA RADARS SHOW CONVECTION MOSTLY IN WESTERN APALACHEE BAY AND WESTWARD...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS INDICATED BY LARGE AREAS OF BLOWOFF OVER THE PANHANDLE...WHILE REMAINING AREAS ARE PRETTY MUCH COVERED BY CU. SURFACE DATA SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CREEPING OVER THE CWA FROM THE NE. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH OF THE FLORIDA STATE LINE...WITH TEMPS 76 TO 86. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AND 10 MPH OR LESS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC80 SHOW THE CWA UNDER A WEAK UPPER PATTERN NOW THAT THE MEAN TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NE. MODELS/ZONES: SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW A TENDENCY TO HOLD BACK SOME ENERGY AND EVEN CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DELMARVA (AS IN STRONGER AVN)...THEN MOVE IT SOUTH TO THE GULF STATES. ONLY MINOR SURFACE DISCREPANCIES...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST INTO FRIDAY. MODELS PREDICT MEAN 1000-700 MB FLOW THURSDAY WILL BE E-NE <10 KTS (TYPE 2 REGIME) WHICH CORRESPONDS TO MAX 40 PERCENT POPS IN EXTREME SERN ZONES...30 PERCENT OTHER PORTIONS OF BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...10-20 PERCENT IN AL AND GA. THIS IS MUCH LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPARENTLY IS ACCORDING MORE INFLUENCE TO THE INVERTED TROF. WILL ACCEPT INFLUENCE OF INVERTED TROF AND BUMP UP POPS AS COMPARED TO THE SEA BREEZE STUDY. MODEL SOUNDING PW VALUES WILL STAY BETWEEN 1.6 AND TO 1.85" THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME CAPES RUNNING 1750 TO 2150 J/KG. WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS AND POPS...INCORPORATING MET...WHICH TENDS TOWARD MAV FOR DAY TIME AND MET FOR NIGHT TIME TEMPS. POPS FORECAST IS ENSEMBLE. EXTENDED (SUN-WED): SEA BREEZE WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES UNDER A WEAK UPPER LOW THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH BEGINS PUSHING OVER US AFTER THAT. PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS WEAK WITH HIGH MOISTURE AT LOW/MID LEVELS. EXPECT NEAR CLIMO TEMPS. MARINE: GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW SEAS AND SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS. PRELIM NUMBERS: TLH 68 89 69 87 4534 PFN 72 88 71 87 2423 DHN 69 88 69 87 2422 ABY 68 88 69 85 4533 VLD 68 88 69 86 5634 CTY 69 86 69 86 5535 .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. AFD fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 326 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2002 CAP IS IN PLACE AS EVIDENT BY THE IMAGERY AND THE RUC 700MB TMPS OF 10-13C OVR MST OF THE CWA. LEADING EDGE OF CAP XPNDG EWD NRING ERN CWA BDR ATTM AS ID/D BY WEAK CELL THAT FIRED 40SE OF DSM. FOLLOWING ALG WITH THE RUC THRU 06Z WITH NEG PCPN IN FA...THEN BRING POPS IN FAR NWRN ZONES. BYD THAT ITS A FIGHT BETWEEN THE BUILD HGTS AND THE WKNG SFC BNDRY SINKING TO MAYBE SUX-DBQ LN AND AT THE VRY WORST TO HIGHWAY 30. LIKE THE MESOETA 850 THETAE FCST WHICH HAS THAT LVLS BNDRY LIFTG N TO ALG THE MN BDR BY 00Z FRI. JUST UNSURE ON WHERE TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION AND WHERE TO PUSH THE POPS. GUT THINKING THAT NRN HALF OF FA IS REALLY UNDER THE GUN AND THAT THE SRN HALF WL BE DRY INTO FRI. PULLED CONVECTION OUT OF SAT AFTN THINKING THE UPR RDG REALLY BUILDS IN BY THEN AND SUPPRESSES EVERYTHING. BYD SUN...NO PCPN MENTION AS SUMMER TIME UPR RDG IN PLAY WITH ANY PCPN THREAT TO OUR N. TMPS ESSENTIALLY IN THE 80S AND 60S. .DSM...WIND ADV MOST OF FA TIL 7 PM. MYERS ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1158 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2002 JUST COMPLETED UPDATE OF ALL ZONES. ADJUSTED WINDS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWFA BASED ON CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION AND LATEST RUC. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PORTION...BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS/LATEST RUC. MOST SIGNIFICANT UPDATE WAS TO THE NORTHEAST ZONE GROUP. CAP WILL BE WEAKEST THERE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND ETA KAIN-FRITSCH BLOWS UP THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA AFT 21Z. THAT ZONE GROUP WAS DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO ADDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO IT. .GLD...NONE. BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 225 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2002 SHORT TERM (TNGT-FRI NGT): ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE POPPED UP INVOF WEAK SFC BNDRY ALG S COAST...AND ALSO DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMEN OVR WRN MA. XPCT TO SEE SOME ADDTL DVLPMNT THRU THIS EVE ALG E SLOPES OF BERKS...MONADNOCKS AND ORH HILLS WHERE TERRAIN FORCING SHUD BE GRTST. STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN SLO MOVERS DUE TO WEAK WND FIELD ALF SO LCLY HVY RAFL WL BE MAIN PRBLM...THO WITH LOW WET BULB ZERO HGTS (7-8KFT) AND LO EL (25KFT) SMALL HAILERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. RUC INDCTS QUICK DSIPTN OF ACTVTY AFT 00Z DUE TO LOSS OF HTG. ONCE CNVTCN DIES OFF THIS EVE...QUIET WX INTO FRI NGT AS UL RDG BLDS OVR TOP. FOR TNGT SKIES CLR AND WITH LGT WNDS WENT BLO MOS VALUES. LOTS OF SUN THU WITH WARMER TEMPS AWAY FM COAST. NOT MUCH EITHER INTO FRI NGT. WENT CLOSER TO AVN WITH APCHG CDFNT AS ETA LOOKS TOO FAST GIVEN POSN OF UL RDG. NO HEADLINES ON MARINE FCST. NOTCHEY LONG TERM (SAT-WED): SFC RDG HOLDS ITS OWN ACRS SRN NEW ENG SAT... WITH WEAKENING CDFNT LYING ACRS NRN NYS/NEW ENG AND INVERTED SFC TROF FM WKNG CSTL LO XTNDG UP NJ COAST. GOING TO KEEP SAT FCST DRY AS WE THINK RDG WL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BTWN THE TWO SYS... THO BY SUN AVN SHOWS ENUF WEAKNESS IN RDG TO ALLOW CLDS/SCTD SHWRS TO REACH FA AS MOISTR STREAMS IN FM S AND INTERACTS WITH CDFNT. FOR MON AND BYD...AVN AGREES WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOOKS MOST RSNBL...TAKING UPR RDG OVR SERN STATES AND PUSHING IT OFFSHR BY DAY 7. 12Z RUN HAS SPED UP CDFNT'S PROGRESS...NOW OVR S COAST AS COMPARED TO GRTLKS ON 00Z RUN...SO DECIDED TO KEEP MON/TUE DRY AS FNT PUSHES TO MIDATLC. WRN END OF FNT LIFTS BACK N AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS GRTLKS WED SO WL REINTRO CHC SHWRS ALL ZNS. STAYED CLOSE TO MEX TMPS. JWD .BOX... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. ma