AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 1020 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...NO MORNING UPDATES. BROAD UPPER VORTICITY TROUGH FROM MAX IN NW NV OVER S IDAHO WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN FLOW AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF WA-CANADIAN COAST LIFTS NE. MONSOON-LIKE MOISTURE OVER SW IDAHO WITH DEW POINTS/PWS APPROACHING 60F/1 INCH WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER FORCING AND ABOVE AVERAGE VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHEAR AND 500J/KG CAPE IN SW IDAHO MAINLY OWYHEE-SRN TWF COUNTY FOR PULSE STORMS SO NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ORGANIZATION OF CELLS FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHER PROBLEM IS APPROACHING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGH COMBINING WITH SW FLOW AND HIGHER DEW PTS OVER SW IDAHO MOVING N TONIGHT FOR ISOLD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH THE ETA HANDLES WELL AND THE RUC HINTS AT. SMOKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT OVER LOWER TREASURE VLY AND WESTERN PART OF WEST CENTRAL MTS IN WEAK FLOW BELOW AROUND 15K FT MSL. AFTERNOON UPDATES FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH DEALS GLANCING BLOW TO NW ZONES AND MONSOON MOISTURE LINGERS OVER SE ZONES. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL SMOKY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM GRASS FIRES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.. IN GENERAL VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT LOCALLY 2-3 MILES IN SMOKE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO ADVECT MODIFIED MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE OF THE BORDER. ON THE OREGON SIDE SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES WILL BE FAVORED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY FOLLOW THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN SUPPORTED MAINLY BY SURFACE HEATING IN THE THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE OREGON BORDER. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM WEAK SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND TIME. ONE OF THESE APPROACHING NORTHWEST NEVADA MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHTNING IN THAT AREA RIGHT NOW. THE ETA BUFFER SOUNDINGS HAVE BY FAR THE BEST HANDLE ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE GFS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE PW AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS UNDER FORECASTING MAX TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THE ETA INDICATES THAT PW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH BASED INVERTED V CONVECTION WE DON'T ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAIN BUT RATHER STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ATTRIBUTE OF THESE STORMS. WE DO EXPECT THEM TO BE WET BUT CAN'T RULE OUT NEW FIRE STARTS WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE THE RAIN SHAFTS. THE OREGON ZONES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S VS 50S ON THE IDAHO SIDE. AS MENTIONED WE ARE KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS. TRIPLE DIGITS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON DIFFICULT TO FORECAST CLOUD COVER. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO SET OFF MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...MODELS ARE FINALLY BRINING A CHANGE IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE WAVE. RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS AND EVEN A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...VM AVIATION...RH PREVIOUSLY... SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM....GS id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 200 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - TUESDAY) UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE LITTLE THIS PERIOD. WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL PERIODICALLY BRUSH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE AROUND TO POSSIBLY INITIATE CONVECTION. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO TRIPLE DIGITS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TONIGHT...SURFACE TROF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR AKO TO OGA WILL DRIFT SOUTH. VORT MAX EJECTING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF 700MB TROF DO NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN A TOKEN 20 POP IN EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS FIRING ON THE BOUNDARY. SUNDAY...HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS RUC13/ETA12 FORECASTING WEAK BOUNDARY TO BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE TOO LATE TO EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES. ETA THEN BLOWING UP PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS DRY. ETA LOOKS WAY TOO HIGH ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION LIKELY TIED TO THIS. UPPER SUPPORT ALSO MEAGER...ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX ROLLING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO. WILL NOT BITE ON ETA AT THIS TIME. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES IN NORTHEAST ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT...AND IN THE WEST FOR ANY CONVECTION COMING OUT OF COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH VORT. MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AND VORT MAXES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTED MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ETA SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF COMBINATION. ONLY MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE FAR WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH ANYTHING COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY) NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS MAIN STORM TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THIS PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH WITH THE DYNAMICS SO FAR NORTH DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH AREAL COVERAGE. MODELS LOOK TO BE OVERDOING POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE REGIME ON THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED MUCH FURTHER WEST THIS TIME...OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SO THINK TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL NOT RETURN...AT LEAST NOT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. .NE...NONE. .CO...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1145 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPR MI AND INTO LK SUPERIOR. BULK OF THICKER CLOUD COVER IS OVR LK SUPERIOR INTO NW ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH DECAYING MCS THAT IS PUSHING INTO W LK SUPERIOR. OTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN OFF OVR THE TIP OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS SPREADING INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX OF NOTE IS SHIFTING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS BEING AFFECTED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 300-305K SFCS (H85-H7). ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF LIFT IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...SEEMS LIKE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION FM SW IS DRIVING FURTHER LIFT AND MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THIS SOMEWHAT. 12Z RAOBS SHOW DESCREPANY IN H85 MOISTURE WITH MPX 850MB DEWPOINT +4C WHILE INL/GRB HAD AROUND +10C AND THIS IS WITHIN THE RIBBON WHERE CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO FIRE. UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ON KEWEENAW WHERE REMNANTS OF MCS ARE COMING ACROSS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE NEEDED OVR N TIER AS WELL. TRIMMED TEMPS BY 3-5F WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF AFTN (KEWEENAW INTO W AND NCNTRL ZONES). 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SEEM TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEING ACTED UPON BY 925MB-850MB JETS OF 30-40KT. && .PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THIS MORNING)... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT TOO EXCITED ANYMORE ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THERE ARE A FEW REASONS FOR THIS: FIRST IS THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...NOTED BY THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS MENTIONED ABOVE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 65 RANGE. ALSO...THERE ARE NO STRONG AREAS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON AN 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT. THE BEST AREA...ALBEIT NOT THAT STRONG...LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES. A WEAKER 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY...SO COULD NOT RULE OUT ANY -TSRA FORMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAPPENING TONIGHT ACROSS NE MN INTO THE FAR WESTERN U.P. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOONS WILL END UP WITH LESS ACTIVITY GIVEN THAT ANY LOW LEVEL JET THAT DEVELOPS AT NIGHT WEAKENS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW THIS OCCURRING TOO BASED ON THE QPF FIELDS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE WEATHER GRIDS ALONE. COORDINATED WITH SPC ON THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA (15%) FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AND DECIDED TO HAVE DROPPED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 5% IS IN THE SWODY2...BUT AGAIN...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD NOTE THAT FOR TODAY IT DOES LOOK DRY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. DUE TO ITS CLOSER LOCATION TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR...PERHAPS TO THE 850MB TEMPERATURE. 850MB TEMPS TODAY ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 10-14C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST WEST. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME WIND WOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S OR SO. THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION HELPS RAISE 850MB TEMPS TO 16-19C ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S. GIVEN THE WARMER SUNDAY...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER. CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 18-20C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME LOCAL COOLING DUE TO LAKE BREEZES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WITH THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE 65 (LAKE SUPERIOR) TO 70 (LAKE MICHIGAN) RANGE PER LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS...AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DUE TO A PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND. AS A RESULT...WARM AIR COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE PLAINS IS ADVECTED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...SETTING UP A NICE CAP OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE DISCOUNT THE CANADIAN IDEA OF SHOWING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS THE GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS DURING THE DAY AROUND 20C OR PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER...AND WITH A GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES)...THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90 IN THE INTERIOR. THE LACK OF HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE THIS HEAT A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE... NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM. COORDINATED WITH SPC...THANKS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 314 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB APPEAR TO HAVE THE AIR MASS WELL CAPPED TO CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THE INTERACTIVE SKEW-T FROM THE RUC MODEL HOWEVER SHOWS THAT AREAS EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES COULD STILL REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING INTO SW MN THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS WHICH INDICATE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE SURFACE GEOSTROPIC WIND AND VORTICITY SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECT THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS WARM FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS...THE LACK OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAKE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOO SMALL TO MENTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...STILL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...COULD BE TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MODEL FORECASTING DEEPER MOISTURE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LONGER TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONGER TERM IS WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURE WITH PASSAGE OF MID WEEK COLD FRONT. LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BRINGING FRONT INTO NW MN BY 18Z WED AND THEN ACROSS WC WI BY THURSDAY MORNING. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL ABOUT 60 METERS WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF WITH COOLER NW FLOW CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER OF LONG TERM. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MN...NONE. .WI...NONE. && $$ mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 911 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... UPDATE - PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKING GOOD SO LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ALTERED TO LOWER CLOUD COVER TO AROUND 30% OVERNIGHT BASED ON SAT TRENDS. SPOTTY CLOUD COVER IS THIN LAYER FOR MOST PART, SO SKY SHOULD BE VISIBLE REGARDLESS. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND PREDICTED MORNING MINS USING COMBO OF LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE. WILL RE-RUN TEXT ZONES TO ELIMINATE 20 POP FOR EARLY EVENING. DJP PREV DISCUSSION - AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS N-CNTRL NY HAS SPARKED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED ON THE AM UPDATE. GFS AND RUC MODELS CAPTURED RIBBON OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AT 925-850 MB...AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO THE SRN TIER THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE MORE SPOTTY SHRA DEVELOPING THRU SUNDOWN AS WEAK UPPER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA TO AID UPWARD MOTION. THESE ARE NOT GREAT FEATURES TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET PAST CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND IN THE CASE OF THE NAM MONDAY... PERSISTENT BIAS OF HIGH LLVL MOISTURE AND THUS OVERPRODUCTION OF CONVECTIVE QPF CONTINUES. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TAMED ITSELF A LITTLE MORE THAN NAM AND BASED ON TODAY'S PERFORMANCE IT IS MODEL OF CHOICE IN A GENERAL SENSE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA LINGERS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE BENIGN TONIGHT AS UPR WAVE EXITS EAST. FCST WILL BE DRY WITH LOW POPS AFTER 9 PM. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHING IN NWLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO INCRS LLVL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST CONVERGENCE XPCTD TO INCREASE ...AND ACCORDING TO GFS BROAD SFC BNDRY STILL EXISTS OVER SRN TIER NY. A TOUCH MORE HEATING THAN TODAY ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...AND INSTABILITY JUMPS UP GREATER THAN TODAY...ROUGHLY APPROACHING 1000-1200 CAPE SUNDAY PM. GFS/NAM QPF GET CRAZY WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...AND AGAIN SUSPECT THIS IS OVERKILL...BUT A SIGN THAT LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE IN THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DRIER SCENARIO ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM CAN MODELS AND 20KM EXPERIMENTAL RUC. GFS MAV MOS DISAGREED WITH IT/S MODEL AND CARRIED QUITE LOW POPS. STRANGE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WETTER NAM MET AND UP CHANCES JUST A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPLY IN AREA OF STRONGER LLVL CONVG ACROSS SRN TIER. SOMEBODY'S PICNIC BOUND TO GET RAINED ON...BUT MOST NOT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL LINGER CHANCE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL DISSIPATION WITH LACK OF TRIGGER AND HEATING. MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO TRACKS OF UL WAVES AND APPROACHING WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. BASED ON 925-850 MB TEMPS...LEANED WITH WARMER MOS VALUES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND BLENDED FWC/MAV AT NIGHT. -JAB && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)... ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE PUSH GOES THROUGH THE CWA MON NGT AND TUESDAY. WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THEN PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT THU. WITH SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HEAT WILL RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE PUSH WITH A WEAK UL TROF...JET AND SHORT WAVE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY. -TAC && .AVIATION (31/00Z - 01/00Z) VFR EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS TOWARD MORNING. AT ELM AFTER 08Z, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO BR WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BTW 09Z-12Z. ON SUNDAY MORNING SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5K AND 10K FT WILL DEVELOP INTO A BKN DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON AT 5K FT. AFTER 18Z, WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 253 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS N-CNTRL NY HAS SPARKED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED ON THE AM UPDATE. GFS AND RUC MODELS CAPTURED RIBBON OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AT 925-850 MB...AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TO THE SRN TIER THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE MORE SPOTTY SHRA DEVELOPING THRU SUNDOWN AS WEAK UPPER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA TO AID UPWARD MOTION. THESE ARE NOT GREAT FEATURES TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET PAST CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND IN THE CASE OF THE NAM MONDAY... PERSISTENT BIAS OF HIGH LLVL MOISTURE AND THUS OVERPRODUCTION OF CONVECTIVE QPF CONTINUES. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TAMED ITSELF A LITTLE MORE THAN NAM AND BASED ON TODAY'S PERFORMANCE IT IS MODEL OF CHOICE IN A GENERAL SENSE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA LINGERS OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE BENIGN TONIGHT AS UPR WAVE EXITS EAST. FCST WILL BE DRY WITH LOW POPS AFTER 9 PM. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE APPROACHING IN NWLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO INCRS LLVL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST CONVERGENCE XPCTD TO INCREASE ...AND ACCORDING TO GFS BROAD SFC BNDRY STILL EXISTS OVER SRN TIER NY. A TOUCH MORE HEATING THAN TODAY ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...AND INSTABILITY JUMPS UP GREATER THAN TODAY...ROUGHLY APPROACHING 1000-1200 CAPE SUNDAY PM. GFS/NAM QPF GET CRAZY WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...AND AGAIN SUSPECT THIS IS OVERKILL...BUT A SIGN THAT LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE IN THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DRIER SCENARIO ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM CAN MODELS AND 20KM EXPERIMENTAL RUC. GFS MAV MOS DISAGREED WITH IT/S MODEL AND CARRIED QUITE LOW POPS. STRANGE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WETTER NAM MET AND UP CHANCES JUST A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPLY IN AREA OF STRONGER LLVL CONVG ACROSS SRN TIER. SOMEBODY'S PICNIC BOUND TO GET RAINED ON...BUT MOST NOT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL LINGER CHANCE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL DISSIPATION WITH LACK OF TRIGGER AND HEATING. MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO TRACKS OF UL WAVES AND APPROACHING WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. BASED ON 925-850 MB TEMPS...LEANED WITH WARMER MOS VALUES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND BLENDED FWC/MAV AT NIGHT. -JAB && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)... ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE PUSH GOES THROUGH THE CWA MON NGT AND TUESDAY. WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THEN PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT THU. WITH SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HEAT WILL RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE PUSH WITH A WEAK UL TROF...JET AND SHORT WAVE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY. -TAC && .AVIATION (30/18Z - 31/18Z) VFR FOR ALL OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT VALLEY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KELM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT WINDS AGAIN LIGHT WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT WASHING OUT. WILL LEAVE OUT SHOWERS IN TAFS FOR NOW BECAUSE TODAY COVERAGE LESS THAN ISOLATED AND SUNDAY MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z. -TAC && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES AND MOVED IN TO WARREN COUNTY. RUC INDICATED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION FORECAST AREA. NO MENTION OF THUNDER...12Z/SAT KALB SOUNDING CAPPED AT 630 MB. TWEAKED SKY...WIND AND TEMP GRIDS BASED IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ARE AT OR BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. NO FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NY...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1045 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)... AT 13Z...A WEAK SFC TROF...WHICH IS FIZZLING OLD COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY...WAS LOCATED FROM WRN NY TO THE SRN SHORE OF LK ONTARIO...THEN TO SRN ADKS. EXPECT THIS BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TAFTN...BUT LATEST RUC/NAM SLIDE AN AREA OF 925MB AND SFC CONVERGENCE SOUTH ACROSS CNY THRU 00Z. VSBL SAT PICS SHOWING MORE CU DVLPG IN THIS REGIME. MORNING RAOBS HOWEVER SHOW A GOOD MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. NOT MUCH SFC JUICE OR HEATING XPCTD TODAY TO GET PARCELS GOING ABOVE THIS CAP...UNLESS THE WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE IS ENOUGH TO GIVE THE NEEDED BOOST. RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWED SOME ISOLD WEAK SHRA OVER NRN NY. THESE FACTORS ARE ENOUGH FOR ME TO INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL NUDGE UP THE POPS AND INTRO SCHC SHRA TO GRID FCST. TEMPS OFF TO A GOOD START ALREADY...SO BUMPED MAXES UP CLOSER TO NAM MOS...WHICH WAS ONLY ABOUT A 1-3 DEGREE CHANGE. -JAB && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... TNGT AND ON SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK SHRT WVS MVES EAST THRU THE BROAD FLAT UPPER TROF OVER ERN CANADA. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF THESE TROFS DVLPS IN THE FORM OF AN INV TROF. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS USE THIS TROF TO DVLP AND FOCUS CONV PCPN BEGINNING LATE TNGT AND CONTG INTO SUN NGT. BELIEVE THAT BOTH MODELS ARE OVERDVLPG THE CONV...BUT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...ESP SUN AFTN WITH LI/S ARND -2 AND CAPES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1200 J/KG...IT/S HARD TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY. BEST CHANCE WLD APPEAR TO BE OVER CNTRL NY CLOSER TO THE UPPER SHRT WV AND NEAR SOME POOLING OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. ATTM...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME OR LOCATE THE TRWS AND SIMPLY GO WITH A GENERAL CHANCE POP SUN AFTN. SLGT CHANCE SEEMS APPROS FOR TNGT AND SUN MRNG WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PRVS FCST...SIMPLY TWEAKED THEM TWRDS THE LATEST MOS CONSENSUS FCST. POPS ALSO CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS. MORFORD && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)... ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THE CWA MON NGT AND TUESDAY. WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THEN PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT THU. WITH SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HEAT WILL RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT LATE FRI. && .AVIATION (30/12Z - 31/12Z) VFR FLIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND NIGHT. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION SUMS UP WELL THE EXISTING WEATHER PATTERN. FEW CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING ABOUT THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. CONFLUENT TROUGH AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO 700 MB LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN OF SHOWERS. THIS CONFLUENT AXIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR CONTINUES TO DEFINE THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER ALL OF THE STATE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS ASSISTED IN STABILIZING THE AIRMASS AS HAS THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST. NET RESULT IS THE INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY EXPECTED WITH THE EASTERN TIER FAVORED FOR BETTER COVERAGE AS FORECAST. PRINCIPAL THREAT IS HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR FINE TUNING TO THE SURFACE WINDS AND DAYTIME HIGHS...NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE REST OF TODAY FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 215 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... THROUGH THE MORNING: THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION FROM EARLIER HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH PATCHY SHOWERS LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NC WITH THE PRIME PVA HEADING TO OUR NORTHEAST. ANOTHER WAVE IS NOTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER AL/GA... & THIS SHOULD RIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD NC LATER TODAY... BUT UNTIL THEN WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS UNTIL NOON. MIDDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY WAVER BACK AND FORTH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BROAD LIFT FROM DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER JET'S RIGHT REAR QUAD PERSISTS... AS DOES THE PERIODIC PASSAGE OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AS THE BAGGY UPPER TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO OUR WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY HOLD AROUND 1.8-2.1" AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP WARM LCL-0C LAYER NEAR 4 KM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY. WITH NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REGIME OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS... WILL CARRY LIKELY (NW) TO LOW CATEGORICAL (SE) POPS FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL WEAK WIND PROFILE AND HIGH WATER CONTENT IN PLACE... SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE AKQ CWA MAY HELP PULL A BIT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHWEST NC LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT & SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP POPS AT LOW CHANCE THERE WITH LOW LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS & NAM DEPART MARKEDLY FROM EACH OTHER WITH PRECIP COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY & AT THIS TIME PREFER THE LESS-AGGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION AS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE FRAUGHT WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE PULLING IN TOO MUCH DRY AIR WITH ITS STRONGER SURFACE LOW HEADING OFFSHORE. WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS OF LOWER POPS NORTH & CHANCE POPS HOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MON. LATEST GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED VARIABLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS & FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WILL STICK WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MOS MAXES FOR MON. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. DGEX/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL ROUGHLY AGREE ON WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NC FROM THE NORTH STARTING TUE... WITH A VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE LATEST GFS HOWEVER STILL SHOWS FEEDBACK PROBLEMS & LOOKS TO BE HOLDING THE PRECIP TOO FAR NW OVER WRN NC & HAVE TOSSED THIS SCENARIO OUT. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY TUE-THU & WILL STICK WITH UNMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT WORST... THEN EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY LATE FRI WITH THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST... & WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE COAST ALTHOUGH THE DGEX/ECMWF KEEP IT OFFSHORE. REASONABLE DGEX THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL & NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST IS NECESSARY. AVIATION... RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY'S RAIN...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO IFR IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KK nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 855 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD IS OUTRUNNING THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN CENTRAL ND. THE ONE-TIME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BIS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACHING ND/SD BORDER NORTHWEST OF ABR. EXPECT ATTM THAT THEY WILL DIMINISH AND NOT REACH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ND. A NEW CELL 35NM NW OF CWPO SEEMS A DIFFERENT STORY AS IT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE EAST. WILL WATCH TO SEE IF THIS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER INTO A CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE BEST JET DIVERGENCE AND THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO OUTRUNNING IT AND THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ACCORDING TO RUC MODEL (WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE) WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. PLAN TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM FORECASTS EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST MN AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT BEARS WATCHING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ GV nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1214 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TO MVFR BR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLUK...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINT SPREAD TRENDS. KILN MAY HAVE MVFR BR AS WELL LATE OVERNIGHT. THEN...DIURNAL SCT CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...QUICKLY DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATED POSSIBLE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH NORTHEAST FLOW MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE BUT IT SHOULD BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... ANOTHER NICE DAY IN PROGRESS ACRS REGION. MAJORITY OF FCST AREA EXPERIENCING MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW CU. CU FIELD A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE ACRS WEST CNTRL OH...WHERE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRNTL BNDRY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK LO LVL CONV. TEMPS WERE CURRENTLY IN THE 80S. SFC CONV AXIS ACRS WEST CNTRL OH NOTED ON CURRENT RUC DISSIPATES BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DIURNAL NATURE TO CU AGAIN WITH SKIES MSTLY CLR BY SUNSET. HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY THRU MON AS BROAD UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD. ANY MID LVL S/WVS WILL BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE NRN GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN AND MON WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN HINTING AT MID LVL CAP DVLPG FOR SUN AFTN AND HOLDING INTO MON. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU/CI EXPECTED...WILL INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLR AT NIGHT. DEWPTS CURRENTLY IN 50S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE 60S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY VLY FOG SUN/MON MRNGS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HGTS AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO MON...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG WARMER EACH OF NEXT TWO DAYS. TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUID...WITH HIGHS INTO L90S EXPECTED BY MON. MAV GUID HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEG ABV MAV AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS APPCHG 70 DEG BY MON NIGHT. RYAN LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO MORE OF A RIDGE DOMINATE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE RIDGE AND THE QUICKEST TO BREAK IT DOWN. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND SLOWER WITH THE BREAK DOWN. HOWEVER...THEY BOTH SHOW A HINT OF A FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND FORECAST MAINLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH WEAK FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH. TIPTON AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW TO PERSIST AND SOME MORNING GROUND FOG AND/OR SUNRISE SUPRISE EXPECTED FOR ILN/CVG/LUK. DID NOT ADD CU TO THE WEST THOUGH WRN TAFS MAY SEE A PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SPACED (FEW) CU...NOT WORTH ANOTHER LINE ON QUIET WX AND ALMOST P6SKC TAFS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 945 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATED POSSIBLE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH NORTHEAST FLOW MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE BUT IT SHOULD BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 AVIATION (00Z-00Z)... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z-03Z TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR DAY...CMH...LCK. VISIBILITIES REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR 4SM BR TO OCCASIONALLY 2SM BR FROM 08Z-12Z. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND SOME CAPPING SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... ANOTHER NICE DAY IN PROGRESS ACRS REGION. MAJORITY OF FCST AREA EXPERIENCING MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW CU. CU FIELD A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE ACRS WEST CNTRL OH...WHERE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRNTL BNDRY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK LO LVL CONV. TEMPS WERE CURRENTLY IN THE 80S. SFC CONV AXIS ACRS WEST CNTRL OH NOTED ON CURRENT RUC DISSIPATES BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DIURNAL NATURE TO CU AGAIN WITH SKIES MSTLY CLR BY SUNSET. HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY THRU MON AS BROAD UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD. ANY MID LVL S/WVS WILL BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE NRN GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN AND MON WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN HINTING AT MID LVL CAP DVLPG FOR SUN AFTN AND HOLDING INTO MON. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU/CI EXPECTED...WILL INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLR AT NIGHT. DEWPTS CURRENTLY IN 50S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE 60S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY VLY FOG SUN/MON MRNGS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HGTS AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO MON...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG WARMER EACH OF NEXT TWO DAYS. TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUID...WITH HIGHS INTO L90S EXPECTED BY MON. MAV GUID HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEG ABV MAV AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS APPCHG 70 DEG BY MON NIGHT. RYAN LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO MORE OF A RIDGE DOMINATE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE RIDGE AND THE QUICKEST TO BREAK IT DOWN. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND SLOWER WITH THE BREAK DOWN. HOWEVER...THEY BOTH SHOW A HINT OF A FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND FORECAST MAINLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH WEAK FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH. TIPTON AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW TO PERSIST AND SOME MORNING GROUND FOG AND/OR SUNRISE SUPRISE EXPECTED FOR ILN/CVG/LUK. DID NOT ADD CU TO THE WEST THOUGH WRN TAFS MAY SEE A PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SPACED (FEW) CU...NOT WORTH ANOTHER LINE ON QUIET WX AND ALMOST P6SKC TAFS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 748 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .AVIATION (00Z-00Z)... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z-03Z TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR DAY...CMH...LCK. VISIBILITIES REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR 4SM BR TO OCCASIONALLY 2SM BR FROM 08Z-12Z. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND SOME CAPPING SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... ANOTHER NICE DAY IN PROGRESS ACRS REGION. MAJORITY OF FCST AREA EXPERIENCING MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW CU. CU FIELD A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE ACRS WEST CNTRL OH...WHERE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRNTL BNDRY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK LO LVL CONV. TEMPS WERE CURRENTLY IN THE 80S. SFC CONV AXIS ACRS WEST CNTRL OH NOTED ON CURRENT RUC DISSIPATES BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DIURNAL NATURE TO CU AGAIN WITH SKIES MSTLY CLR BY SUNSET. HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY THRU MON AS BROAD UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD. ANY MID LVL S/WVS WILL BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE NRN GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN AND MON WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN HINTING AT MID LVL CAP DVLPG FOR SUN AFTN AND HOLDING INTO MON. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU/CI EXPECTED...WILL INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLR AT NIGHT. DEWPTS CURRENTLY IN 50S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE 60S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY VLY FOG SUN/MON MRNGS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HGTS AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO MON...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG WARMER EACH OF NEXT TWO DAYS. TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUID...WITH HIGHS INTO L90S EXPECTED BY MON. MAV GUID HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEG ABV MAV AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS APPCHG 70 DEG BY MON NIGHT. RYAN LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO MORE OF A RIDGE DOMINATE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE RIDGE AND THE QUICKEST TO BREAK IT DOWN. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND SLOWER WITH THE BREAK DOWN. HOWEVER...THEY BOTH SHOW A HINT OF A FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND FORECAST MAINLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH WEAK FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH. TIPTON AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW TO PERSIST AND SOME MORNING GROUND FOG AND/OR SUNRISE SUPRISE EXPECTED FOR ILN/CVG/LUK. DID NOT ADD CU TO THE WEST THOUGH WRN TAFS MAY SEE A PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SPACED (FEW) CU...NOT WORTH ANOTHER LINE ON QUIET WX AND ALMOST P6SKC TAFS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... ANOTHER NICE DAY IN PROGRESS ACRS REGION. MAJORITY OF FCST AREA EXPERIENCING MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW CU. CU FIELD A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE ACRS WEST CNTRL OH...WHERE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRNTL BNDRY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK LO LVL CONV. TEMPS WERE CURRENTLY IN THE 80S. SFC CONV AXIS ACRS WEST CNTRL OH NOTED ON CURRENT RUC DISSIPATES BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DIURNAL NATURE TO CU AGAIN WITH SKIES MSTLY CLR BY SUNSET. HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY THRU MON AS BROAD UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD. ANY MID LVL S/WVS WILL BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE NRN GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN AND MON WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN HINTING AT MID LVL CAP DVLPG FOR SUN AFTN AND HOLDING INTO MON. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU/CI EXPECTED...WILL INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLR AT NIGHT. DEWPTS CURRENTLY IN 50S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE 60S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY VLY FOG SUN/MON MRNGS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HGTS AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO MON...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG WARMER EACH OF NEXT TWO DAYS. TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUID...WITH HIGHS INTO L90S EXPECTED BY MON. MAV GUID HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEG ABV MAV AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS APPCHG 70 DEG BY MON NIGHT. RYAN && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK TO MORE OF A RIDGE DOMINATE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE RIDGE AND THE QUICKEST TO BREAK IT DOWN. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND SLOWER WITH THE BREAK DOWN. HOWEVER...THEY BOTH SHOW A HINT OF A FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND FORECAST MAINLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH WEAK FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH. TIPTON && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW TO PERSIST AND SOME MORNING GROUND FOG AND/OR SUNRISE SUPRISE EXPECTED FOR ILN/CVG/LUK. DID NOT ADD CU TO THE WEST THOUGH WRN TAFS MAY SEE A PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SPACED (FEW) CU...NOT WORTH ANOTHER LINE ON QUIET WX AND ALMOST P6SKC TAFS. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... MAKING ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD IN POP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. LATEST MODEL RUNS...OOZ NAM AND 01Z RUC...SUGGEST COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SRN SECTIONS...AS WEAK WAA SETS UP...PERHAPS ENUF TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND FEW TSTRMS...GIVEN SOME AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THINK NAM PRECIP IS OVERDONE...IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO 40 PCT N CAROLINA...30 PCT SRN VA...AND JUST 20 NRN HALF OF FA. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG...AS ALREADY SEEING LOWERING VSBYS MAINLY NW ZONES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THEN THRU THE CNRTL MID ATLC REGION DURING THE FCST PERIOD. ANTHR 24-36 HOURS OR SO OF MNLY SCTD PCPN TO GET THRU BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE TRENDING LESS ESPECIALLY BY LATE SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM NE FROM GULF THRU SE STATES AND INTO CNTRL MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT. WEAK JET DYNAMICS AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE HELPING TO FIRE SEVERAL LINES OF DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTN. ONE BKN LINE DROPPING SOUTH ACRS EAST CNTRL VA WITH ANTHR MOVG NE ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. DIURNAL INFLUENCES ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEEPER CONVECTION AND EXPECT WEAKENING TRENDS AFTER SUNSET. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ACRS SE AREAS TNGT WHERE LINES OF CONVECTION INTERSECT...ELSW CONTD CHC POPS FOR ANY RENEGADE PCPN ORGANIZATION. MID LVL DRY SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO NUDGE DEEP MOISTURE STREAM TWD MID ATLC COAST ON SUNDAY. BEST FOCUS FOR PCPN RMNS ACRS SE AREAS ALONG ON NW OF QUASI STATIONARY SFC BNDRY BUT WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH CHC GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUNNY BREAKS ON SUNDAY SO HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY...MNLY L-M80S. WILL CONT TO TREND POPS DOWN FM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID LVL DRYING SLOWLY TAKES OVER. BY MON AFTN LEFT JUST SLIGHT CHCS ACRS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS (NE NC). EVEN MORE SUN EXPECTED MONDAY AS COLUMN DRYING CONTINUES SO HIGHS GETTING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS (M-U80S). LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... UPR RDG BUILDS EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD ENSURING MNLY DRY FCST AND A WARMING TREND. EXPECT 90+ HIGHS FOR MOST AGAIN THRU MIDWEEK WITH WIDESPREAD MID (MAYBE UPR) 90S POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK AS STRONG UPR RDG SITS OVHD. LONG RANGE GUID SUGGS UPR RDG EVENTUALLY BREAKS DOWN BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (FRI/SAT) SO HOPEFULLY ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT WOULD NOT BE LONG LASTING. AVIATION... AFTER ISLTD MVFR/IFR THIS AFTN/EVE IN ANY SHRA/TSTM...THEN PATCHY MVFR/POSS IFR IN FOG TOMORROW MORNING. BECMG VFR TOWARDS MIDAY SUN. MARINE... WINDS BECOMING NE 10-15 KT TOMORROW (W/ SFC LOW MOVING ALONG STA FRONT)...THIS COUPLED WITH STEADY 2 FT BACK GROUND SWELL WARRANTS SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS N CHINCOTEAGUE SUN-MON...NEED WINDS OF 20KT TO GET SEAS TO SCA LVLS FURTHER S. OTW EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AS NO SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEM IS FCST TO IMPACT CWA AFTER SFC LOW DEPARTS THE WATERS MONDAY. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ650 FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ652 FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY. $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...CULLEN && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR MDZ025 FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ650 FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ652 FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...18/REILLY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 132 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... TONIGHT SHOULD BE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE WEST SHOULD PLAY DOWN FOG THERE. MIN TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MAV IN MOST PLACES AS THE MAV HAS BEEN GENERALLY A BIT LOWER THEN THE OBSERVED. SHOWERS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST SHOULD DIE QUICK AFTER SUNSET. && .AVIATION... AFTER SUNSET ANY SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES WILL DIE. FOG TONIGHT WILL SET UP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH DENSER FOG IN MOUNTIANS AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPE AND NO MAJOR PROBLEMS OHIO RIVER AND WEST AS THE DEW POINTS THERE WILL BE A BIT LOWER. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... RUC AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN EXTREME SE WV LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL BE GOING WITH LIKELY DOWN THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 554 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) AVIATION... DRY AIR HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WHILE THE DRY AIR PREVENTED FOG IN THE WEST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS THE RULE IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR EAST...ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER. EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 407 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH JUST A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE DRY AIR. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH DRY ELSEWHERE. MAV MOS IS LOWER THAN ACTUAL READINGS ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD..SO WILL GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND PUSHES THE MOISTURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT REGIONS...THUS BEING DRY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS WHERE IT IS DEVELOPING LIFT INITIALLY IS TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE CONVECTION IS THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE NAM FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED THE SKY GRIDS...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CLOUDS HANGING IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER WITH THE MET NUMBERS AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO COOL. BEYOND TUESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKING AT THE NEW MODELS THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE WITH HPC. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) AVIATION... DRY AIR HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CREATE A RANGE OF CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM PRACTICALLY NO FOG IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE EAST...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST SEEING A STRATUS DECK. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER. EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AAR AVIATION...AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... RUC AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN EXTREME SE WV LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL BE GOING WITH LIKELY DOWN THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 554 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) AVIATION... DRY AIR HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WHILE THE DRY AIR PREVENTED FOG IN THE WEST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS THE RULE IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR EAST...ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER. EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 407 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH JUST A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE DRY AIR. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH DRY ELSEWHERE. MAV MOS IS LOWER THAN ACTUAL READINGS ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD..SO WILL GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND PUSHES THE MOISTURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT REGIONS...THUS BEING DRY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS WHERE IT IS DEVELOPING LIFT INITIALLY IS TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE CONVECTION IS THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE NAM FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED THE SKY GRIDS...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CLOUDS HANGING IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER WITH THE MET NUMBERS AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO COOL. BEYOND TUESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKING AT THE NEW MODELS THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE WITH HPC. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005) AVIATION... DRY AIR HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CREATE A RANGE OF CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM PRACTICALLY NO FOG IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE EAST...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST SEEING A STRATUS DECK. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER. EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY AND THEN CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH TUE. CURRENT WEATHER...07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A 598 DAM HIGH SITTING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE WAY TO THE NORTH...MOVING FROM A TROUGH OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A WEAK TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. MANY SMALL SCALE SHRTWVS ARE RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW...THOUGH MOST ARE HARD TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ONE LOCATED OVER SE MANITOBA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS THERE. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. FOR THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...LITTLE HAS BEEN GOING ON WHICH PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE CAP OBSERVED ON THE 00Z MPX SOUDNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE NOW 18C AT INL...MPX AND GRB WHEREAS APX WAS 12C. 850MB DEWPOINTS ALSO ARE WARM...WITH 14C READINGS AT INL...MPX AND 13C AT GRB. MUCH DRIER AND MORE CAPPED AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THESE 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 0C. 00Z ABR SOUNDING VERY DRY BUT ALSO CONTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 850-600MB. ONE OTHER INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE REALLY COME UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH READINGS ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE WESTERN U.P. NOW IN THE MID 60S COMPARED TO AROUND 50 YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TODAY...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING ON THE CAP/850MB THETA-E RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL JET FORCING FALLS APART DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE OF IT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR. A WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UPSTREAM OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL BOW THAT CAN BE SEEN ON KMVX AND KDLH RADARS. HAVE KEPT IN SOME SCATTERED -TSRA FOR THE WESTERN U.P. FOR THIS WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE IN CASE IN HOLDS TOGETHER LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE A MORE TRICKY FORECAST AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AFTER THE MCS DIMINISHES AND WHERE ITS OUTFLOW SETS UP. WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 18-20C...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S. IF MORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE...90 CERTAINLY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL GO A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THAT. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS USING THESE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S YIELDS ANYWHERE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH NO CIN. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED...LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. THESE LAKE BREEZES ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SHRTWV IN SE MANITOBA WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY CAP. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 9500-10000 FT...SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. SFC-10000 FT DELTA THETA-E IS ALSO 25-30 K/KM...ALSO SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT (PERHAPS CLOSER TO 35 KT IN THE EAST) IN THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZES AND TRIES TO CROSS THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. WILL MENTION THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR BOTH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TONIGHT...SINCE STORMS ARE SURFACE BASED AND DEPEND ON LAKE BREEZES...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...TO DIMINISH WHILE MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS ANY SORT OF LOW LEVEL JET IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE. GOING LOWS LOOK GOOD. MONDAY...WITH NO ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH AT THE START LIKE IS OCCURRING TODAY...THINKING IS THAT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 18-20C AGAIN...READINGS SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 90. SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK LIKE TODAY...LAKE BREEZES WILL FORM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 625MB ON NAM SOUNDINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...THIS CAP MAY BE OVERCOME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT IS UNDERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM SASKATCHEWAN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES NOT PRINT OUT ANY QPF...THE UKMET AND GFS DO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE CAP MAY BE TOO STRONG...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SINCE 500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REACH NEAR 590 DAM. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE HIGH HEIGHTS MENTIONED ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS TO OCCUR DUE TO CAPPING. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST. BOTH PERIODS SHOULD BE VERY WARM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 20-21C. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO MET GUIDANCE. ONLY CHANGE MADE BEYOND TUE IS TO PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF THE FRONT CROSSING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM MINNESOTA. CHANGES MAY NEED TO BE MADE OVER LAND IF THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE FASTER. COORDINATED WITH APX...GRB AND SPC...THANKS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT..CURRENTLY IN NW MN WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY. 06Z NAM HAS WAS SPEEDING UP THE FRONT CLOSER TO RUC13. WILL BASE FORECAST CLOSER TO 00Z RUN FOR NOW. FRONT DOES MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN AND NW WI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN A LITTLE FATHER SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT LOOSING DEFINITION SOMEWHAT. LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FORECAST BY NAM TO BE OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI BY EVENING WITH WEAK CIN. WILL ADD SMALL POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CAPE AND NEAR 35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST IN THIS AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY OF BOUNDARY POSITION AND AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION..WILL NOT MENTION SVR AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SPC AREA LOOKS OK. SCENARIO OF WEAK RIDGING STILL THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTING BACK NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO...WILL ADD A SMALL POP FOR SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE BACK IN. STRONGER WARMING MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 90S. STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN AREA BY WED..SO WILL ADD SMALL POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE JUST NORTH OF CAP. LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY 00Z 7/30 GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z 7/31 GFS RUN THIS EVENING. 12Z 7/30 ECMWF SIMILAR IN HANDLING UPPER TROUGH/FRONT AS WELL. THIS SAID...NEXT COLD FRONT TO SEEP THROUGH REGION WED NITE INTO THU PERIOD. ONLY POSSIBLE PROBLEM IS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN CWA LATE AND COULD POSE PROBLEM WITH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WED. HAVE TEMPERED READINGS SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DRY SURFACE HIGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MN...NONE. .WI...NONE. && $$ JPR/DWE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT... THEN ON HOT DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL QPF PATTERNS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS AND NGM INDICATE PCPN OVER CWA TODAY...AND NAM20 BRINGS PCPN INTO CWA TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CWA ON EDGE OF CAP. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MID LEVEL ISNT LIFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO 850 AND 700 CONVERGENCE...AND OMEGA AT TIMES. RUC AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUFFY INDICATES AROUND 2K ELEVATED CAPES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI/S AROUND -4 AND TT/S OF 53. THERE IS ALSO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPS RATES TODAY WHICH EXTENDS INTO TONIGHT. ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTS TO PUT SMALL POPS INTO FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VIEW OF PRESENT MID LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SIMILAR DYNAMICS. MODELS ALSO BUILD MCS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO CWA THIS MORNING INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR. NAM AND NGM BUILD CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH SOUTHWARD INTO CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AND HOT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURES AND POPS. HOWEVER...IN VIEW OF THE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...WILL LOOK FOR LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1141 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE SASKATCHEWAN...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THIS RIDGE. THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVES HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN U.P. INTO LAKE HURON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRAGGING A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN AN AREA OF STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ALONG A THETA-E RIDGE. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE MODERATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LAPSE RATE WILL PRODUCE MUCAPE OF AROUND 3K-4K ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ALSO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. QPF FROM ETA12 IS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WHEREAS RUC INDICATES HEAVY RAINS. I THINK RUC IS OVER DOING THE INSTABILITY AND RAINFALL. STILL CONDITION STILL LOOK QUESTIONABLE FOR THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...IF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP AND SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1128 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .UPDATED... I WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96) THIS AFTERNOON. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN OUT FLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH FROM NRN WI TOWARD CNTRL LK MICHIGAN AN SHOULD GET TO LDM BTW 1 PM AND 2 PM. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE THERE AND THE RUC FORECAST OF 850 MB LI VALUES NEAR -2C ONE COULD NOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE A STORM COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 1000/500MB THICKNESS GRADIENT. GIVEN THE RUC SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 35 KNOTS OVER NRN LWR THIS AFTERNOON (PUTS THE GRR CWA IN DIVERGING LOW LEVEL WINDS)AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE 700 TO 300 MB DPVA IS NEGATIVE (NVA OR DOWNWARD MOTION) IT IS A STRETCH BUT EVEN SO A SLIGHT CHANCES SEEMS GOOD TO ME. $$ .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 944 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAH CWA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE... RAOBS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. AREA VWPS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS NEAR 10 THSD FT. THE RUC PROJECTS A WEAK LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AT 12Z DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE NE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z DATA SET ALOFT ALSO IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AT JET LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND IMPLIED SHARP ASCENT OVER THE REGION WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE RAH CWA. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE 78-84...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -RFG && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 302 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH 850MB CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHEAR AXIS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT 500MB OVERHEAD. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...AND THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 TO JUST SHY OF 75. ONGOING SHOWERS TOWARD THE TRIAD IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SURFACE THETA-E ON MSAS ANALYSIS...AND ALREADY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OR INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF KCAE AND SOUTHWEST OF KILM. MSAS SURFACE THETA-E VALUES ARE HIGH PARTICULARLY FROM KRDU SOUTH THROUGH KFAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS MOVED IN OR DEVELOPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE BEST UVV AND CONVERGENCE IN THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST IN THOSE LOCATIONS AND ANY HEAVY SHOWER...MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH WITH 700MB AND 500MB WINDS ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...COULD PROVIDE FOR LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO...AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH AS STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ON THE KRAX WSR-88D SHOWS A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER A LENGTHY 48 HOURS. BOTH MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 850MB AND 700MB THETA-E VALUES TOWARD THE TRIAD TODAY WITH INCREASED SURFACE RIDGING. THE TREND OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM IS TO SLOWLY SINK THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SOUTH AND USHER DRIER AIR IN THE MEAN OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY...AND DESPITE THE NAM FORECAST OF AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WEAK UVV AT BEST...AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS FROM 700MB THROUGH 500MB SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO OVERALL MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT WANTING TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO FAST... MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE TRIAD WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LEAST AND WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MOST DISTANT. MOS POPS HAVE REALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST A DRY DAY TOWARD GSO AND INT ON MONDAY. MOISTURE DIMINISHES AT ALL LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME GOOD CLEARING OVERNIGHT THEN. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST AT 925MB AND RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWEST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE NAM FORECASTS A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH COULD SLIDE SOUTH AROUND THE 700MB RIDGE AND AFFECT AREAS MAINLY FROM ROXBORO THROUGH THE TRIAD LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN THAT AREA AND...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH RNK...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST THERE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST...EXCEPT LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY ON AVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED. FOR THE SAME REASON AND WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN RAISED MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MANY THANKS TO NEARBY OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION EARLY THIS MORNING. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST. GFS FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS HANDLED WELL AT THIS POINT. AVIATION... CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH 07Z...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE. VSBYS WILL REBOUND AFTER 15Z...HOWEVER LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON (~18Z)...THEN BECOME MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RFG nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 904 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... RAOBS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. AREA VWPS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS NEAR 10 THSD FT. THE RUC PROJECTS A WEAK LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AT 12Z DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND INTO THE NE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z DATA SET ALOFT ALSO IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AT JET LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND IMPLIED SHARP ASCENT OVER THE REGION WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE RAH CWA. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE 78-84...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -RFG && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 302 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH 850MB CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHEAR AXIS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT 500MB OVERHEAD. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...AND THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 TO JUST SHY OF 75. ONGOING SHOWERS TOWARD THE TRIAD IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SURFACE THETA-E ON MSAS ANALYSIS...AND ALREADY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OR INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF KCAE AND SOUTHWEST OF KILM. MSAS SURFACE THETA-E VALUES ARE HIGH PARTICULARLY FROM KRDU SOUTH THROUGH KFAY...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS MOVED IN OR DEVELOPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE BEST UVV AND CONVERGENCE IN THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST IN THOSE LOCATIONS AND ANY HEAVY SHOWER...MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH WITH 700MB AND 500MB WINDS ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...COULD PROVIDE FOR LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO...AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH AS STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ON THE KRAX WSR-88D SHOWS A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER A LENGTHY 48 HOURS. BOTH MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 850MB AND 700MB THETA-E VALUES TOWARD THE TRIAD TODAY WITH INCREASED SURFACE RIDGING. THE TREND OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM IS TO SLOWLY SINK THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SOUTH AND USHER DRIER AIR IN THE MEAN OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY...AND DESPITE THE NAM FORECAST OF AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WEAK UVV AT BEST...AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS FROM 700MB THROUGH 500MB SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO OVERALL MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT WANTING TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO FAST... MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE TRIAD WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LEAST AND WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MOST DISTANT. MOS POPS HAVE REALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST A DRY DAY TOWARD GSO AND INT ON MONDAY. MOISTURE DIMINISHES AT ALL LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME GOOD CLEARING OVERNIGHT THEN. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST AT 925MB AND RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWEST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE NAM FORECASTS A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH COULD SLIDE SOUTH AROUND THE 700MB RIDGE AND AFFECT AREAS MAINLY FROM ROXBORO THROUGH THE TRIAD LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN THAT AREA AND...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH RNK...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST THERE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST...EXCEPT LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY ON AVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED. FOR THE SAME REASON AND WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN RAISED MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MANY THANKS TO NEARBY OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION EARLY THIS MORNING. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST. GFS FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS HANDLED WELL AT THIS POINT. AVIATION... CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH 07Z...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE. VSBYS WILL REBOUND AFTER 15Z...HOWEVER LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON (~18Z)...THEN BECOME MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RFG nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 927 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... MINIMAL CHANGES IN MORNING PACKAGE AS FIRST LOOK OF DATA IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. WEAKENING SHEAR LINE OVER THE AREA STILL THE FOCUS OF PRECIP. PREFERRED NAM FOCUSES AFTERNOON PRECIP TO SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE RUC AND GFS CONCENTRATE PRECIP TO WEST AND NORTH. WITH NO REAL BOUNDARIES SHOWING UP IN MESOSCALE...WILL KEEP PRECIP FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST PART OF AREA. TEMPS STAY THE SAME. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 147 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER S APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUE...BUT BECOMES LESS DEFINED AS ATLATNIC RIDGE WEAKENS AND WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES. MODEL DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF MOIST AXIS TODAY...WITH GFS CLOSE TO BLUE RIDGE AND NAM E OF AREA. STARTED MORNING POPS WITH BEST CHANCE N AND W PER RADAR TRENDS...THEN SWITCHED AFTERNOON POPS TOWARD NAM POSITION OF MOISTURE...WHICH GFS TRENDS TOWARD BY MON. RAISED POP IN E TODAY TOWARD MET/FWC GUIDANCE...THOUGH STILL A BIT BELOW. MODELS AGREE ON MOISTURE SHIFTING S MON...AND LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE MON AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS S OF AREA...AND ATMOSPHERE DRIES FROM TOP DOWN...BUT REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT LOW LEVELS. GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND CLOUD COVER DECREASES. WINDS TO STAY FROM NE OR E WITH SURFACE RIDGE ALONG E COAST. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A BROAD 500HPA TROUGH OVER THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BOTH INDICATE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO THE EAST OF THIS AXIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES. THE GFS INDICATES A WEDGE-LIKE SIGNATURE IN THE INSTABILITY INDICES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH A HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...THIS MAY SEEM REASONABLE. WITH THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE WEEK. THE ETA PROGRESSES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FASTER TO THE EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH WEAKENING. AS HAS BEEN COMMON...THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE DEPENDABLE SO WE EXPECT THIS PROGRESSION TO THE BE SLOWER RATHER THAN FASTER. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO MID WEEK AS POPS DECREASE OVERALL. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SOME DIURNAL POPS WITH EITHER SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH BUT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MID WEEK. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK AND BY LATE WEEK MAY BRING TROPICAL RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN. AVIATION... WITH E TO SE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT ON THE VAD WIND PROFILE...PRECIPITATION HAS FANNED OUT ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP AT KAVL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MUCH LESS CHANCE AT PIEDMONT TAF SITES. IFR CIGS WILL BE FEATURED THIS MORNING AT KAVL AND KGSP WHERE PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED OR IS IMMINENT. MAINLY MVFR CIG AND VSBY EXPECTED FROM KAND TO KCLT...WITH CONDITIONS VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIG THROUGHOUT AFTER NOON. WITH MOIST PROFILES...ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...WILL ADVERTISE NARROW WINDOW OF BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING MAXIMUM INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VAD sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO 6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME. WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN JEOPARDY WED. ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS. GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE. CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S. LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S. ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250 MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) AVIATION... DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER. EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MET NUMBERS SINCE THE MAV NUMBERS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING TOO COOL. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT PLENTIFUL BY SUMMER TIME STANDARDS...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SOME CONVECTION EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN. BUT AT THIS TIME...STILL THINK ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...29 wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250 MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) AVIATION... DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER. EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... EXPECT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MOISTURE FIELD FOR TODAY. AVN HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR MOVEMENT. IF ANY MOVEMENT OCCURS...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...HEDGING POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS IS ONCE AGAIN COOLER THAN HIGHS ON PREVIOUS DAY...SO WILL GO ABOVE MAV MOS. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MET NUMBERS SINCE THE MAV NUMBERS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING TOO COOL. THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT PLENTIFUL BY SUMMER TIME STANDARDS...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SOME CONVECTION EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN. BUT AT THIS TIME...STILL THINK ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ROUNDING TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS QUITE NOTICEABLE ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PRETTY MUCH UNDER THIS MID-LAYER OF MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR ATTM. MEANWHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS HAS REMAINED DRY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. AIRMASS EVEN DRIER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS FORMING OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS HOUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT E/NEWRD OVER THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 10KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AT THIS HOUR...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LAPS AND RUC INDICATE SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE IN LARIMER...WELD AND BOULDER COUNTIES...AND WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF +40F...SMALL HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS A POSSIBILITY WITH HIGH BASED STORMS MOVING OFF THE NRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS NEXT 3-4 HOURS. OTHERWISE STORMS SHOULD END IN ALL BUT THE FAR NERN PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT. WHEREAS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE N-CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE UNDER THE PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN NE TONIGHT...IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS OF CO DURING THE DAY. DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THETA-E FIELDS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUSING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG BY 00Z/TUE. SHOULD SEE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION/T-STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE TODAY. .LONG TERM...MON NGT-WED...A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVR THE CNTRL RCKYS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS SUBSIDENT. HWVR THE CIRC ARND THE UPR RDG WILL CONT TO ENTRAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM MEXICO AND SPRD IT NWD INTO THE AREA. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS MAINLY DURING EACH AFTN AND EVE. A SURGE OF HI PRES MOVG SWD ON THE PLAINS WED WILL COOL THE AIR MASS SUM AND PSBLY PROVIDE BOUNDARIES FOR ENHANCED TSTM DVLPMNT. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A SMIDGEN WARMER THAN MOS TEMP GUIDANCE VALUES WUD SUGGEST. IN EXTENDED PRD...THU-SUN...MDLS MAINTAIN UPR RDG OVR CNTRL RCKYS. GFS CONTS TO SHW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MSTR OVR AREA BFR DRIER AMS ON NWLY FLO ALF SHUNTS PLUME FARTHER TO S BY SUN. SURGE OF HI PRES OVR PLAINS ON THU AND FRI SHUD ENHANCE PCPN. WILL RAISE POPS TO CHC ON BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE NR SEASONAL NORMS EXCEPT A LTL COOLER ON THU AND FRI ON PLAINS. && .BOU...NONE. && $$ BAKER/GARD...WFO BOULDER co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 225 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH WEAK WAVES/PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HOW WARM TO MAKE THE MAXES. SATELLITE SHOWING FLOW REMAINING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS STARTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AS IT DIGS TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FLOW IS BECOMING MORE BLOCKY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL. NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE 500 MB RIDGE. ONE IS ROTATING THROUGH IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE NEXT ONE MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THESE LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WAVES. AT 700 MB... WAVE IS STUCK IN THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND DIVIDES AREA INTO NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST HALVES. AIR MASS DRIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AIR MASS ABOVE IT COOLER AND MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS ARE NOT MOIST ENOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEANS...THE UKMET/ECMWF LOOK TO BE DOING THE BEST. RUC IS CAPTURING SHORTWAVE DETAILS VERY WELL FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET/GFS. MODELS DID NOT HAVE HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH WITH THE GFS/RUC DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF. AT LOW LEVELS...RUC DOING BETTER INITIALLY ON THE WIND FIELD WITH THE UKMET DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM. ECMWF/UKMET/GFS DID BETTER ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF RUC/GFS/UKMET FOR THIS FORECAST. TONIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MET/NAM HAVE DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLE FROM RECENT RUNS. RUC IS DOING VERY WELL WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND GFS IS VERY MUCH LIKE IT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND MID LEVEL LIFT WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THEN CURVING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THREE. SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. SO IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT WILL NOT BE A LOT. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION. ORIENTATION OF UPPER RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WOULD SUPPORT HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAT YOU GO. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD VERY MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS IN ALL ASPECTS. WILL ONCE AGAIN PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WILL ALSO TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY...NEW GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP MAXES FOR THIS DAY AS APPROACHING FRONT HAS SLOWED. BASED ON UPPER RIDGE POSITION WOULD AGREE WITH THAT. SO WITH SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GO WARMER AND DRIER. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND BETWEEN THE MODELS. HOWEVER SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS AND FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS INCREASES THE HEIGHTS RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. ALSO IT HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER US PLUS HAS RIDGE CENTER FURTHER WEST THAN ECMWF. CONSIDERING CURRENT FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH...LIKE THE GFS A LITTLE BETTER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD MODELS REVERSE ROLES WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ON TO HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE GFS AND PREFER THAT PER PREVIOUS REASONING. THEREFORE...WILL GO MORE GFS EARLY THEN ECMWF LATER. NOW TO THE DETAILS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WOULD AGREE WITH THIS BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THIS COULD KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WAS INITIALLY WANTING TO LOWER POPS. HOWEVER...NEIGHBORS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT FRONT COULD BE EVEN SLOWER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION IN FOR NOW. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY. ALSO HAVE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTEN UP AS WELL. HOWEVER...THESE SUBTLE DETAILS WILL CHANGE MANY TIMES BEFORE THEN. PLUS IF WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FRONT IS SLOWER...THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL ALSO GET PUSHED BACK. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW... AND LET LATER SHIFTS KEEP THEIR EYE ON THIS PERIOD. THEN RIDGE BUILDS IN PER ECMWF WITH GFS BREAKING DOWN RIGDE TOO MUCH. RIDGE NOT ONLY BUILDS BUT ELONGATES TO THE WEST WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY SUBTROPIPCAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY. MEX/GFS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH BUT TEND TO GO NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. .NE...NONE. .CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 335 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS A H5 RIDGE WITH 596 DAM HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER CNTRL PLAINS POKING INTO MONTANA AND SASKATCHEWAN. STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER FM TROUGH OFF PAC NW (NEXT SIG WX MAKER MID WEEK) INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND SE INTO THE UPR LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW IS SLIDING INTO NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SHORTWAVE INTO UPR MI GENERALLY 30-40KT PER 12Z INL RAOB AND RUC. SFC FLOW OVER CWA IS MAINLY FM SW ALTHOUGH WINDS RIGHT ALONG LK SUPERIOR ARE TRYING TO BECOME ONSHORE...DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WHAT MAY BE AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AS SHOWN BY THE W LK SUPERIOR BUOY SHOWING A NNE WIND. ALTLHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH 1500-2000J/KG PER RUC THE 17Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FM CMX AND SAW ARE VERY CAPPED AND OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND H85...VERY DRY. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WOULD NEED TO ACHIEVE TEMPS NEAR 90F TO BREAK THE CAP AND GET CONVECTION TO FIRE. SO FAR...TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S DUE TO LEFTOVER AC/CI BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION THAT WAS OVR NW LK SUPERIOR EARLIER. THUS FAR...ONLY A FEW SUB 40 DBZ BLIPS ON RADAR E OF MARQUETTE (DEVELOPED IN LK SUPERIOR BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE OFFSHORE OF ALGER CO) WHILE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING FAR SE OF HERE OVR FAR NE LWR MI WHERE 18Z SOUNDING FM APX INDICATED MORE MOISTURE IN H85-H75 LAYER AND LESS CAPPING. IT IS FEASIBLE THAT MOST CWA MAY END UP NOT SEEING ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR ABOVE H85 ON THE TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND BACK INTO MN AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY END UP TOO TOUGH TO OVERCOME. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION NOSING INTO SW UPR MI WITH SFC TD NEAR 70F IN THAT AREA...AND BLYR CONVERGENCE DUE TO WIND OFF LK SUPERIOR MAY STILL HELP POP SOME CONVECTION...IF TEMPS CAN REACH UPR 80S BTWN 4 AND 6 PM THIS AFTN. 0-6KM SHEAR BTWN 30-40KT COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IF STORMS WOULD DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR APPROX THE WEST HALF OF CWA WITH A 30 POP INTO THE E WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS ARE PRESENT AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE H85-H75 LAYER. NAM INDICATES MOST CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVR SCNTRL ZONES. TROUBLE IS PRIMARY AXIS OF LLJ IS ORIENTED FM W TO E INTO N LWR MI...AND THINK THIS IS WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT FM ROUGHLY IMT TO ERY IN CASE THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD FORM SLIGHTLY FARTHER N. IN ANY CASE...ALL CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY DAYBREAK MON AS HIGH PRES OVR SCNTRL CANADA BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO AREA. DESPITE SOME HIGH CAPE VALUES PROGGED BTWN 500-2000J/KG (GREATEST S CNTRL) ON MON...IT SEEMS LIKE MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL DETER PCPN. TEMPS...NOT A TREMENDOUS COOL DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO ONLY AROUND +18C...SO INLAND AREAS BACK INTO THE UPR 80S SEEM LIKELY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AROUND 80 NEAR LK SUPERIOR. LIKELY WILL BE STILL STUFFY AS DEWPOINTS ARE VERY SLOW TO FALL OFF WAY UPSTREAM INTO S MANITOBA. TD SHOULD FALL OFF SOME MON NIGHT INTO 50S AS CENTER OF HIGH IS OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE SE LATER MON NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TUE AS SRLY FLOW RETURNS. H85 TEMPS RISE TOWARD +20C IN THE W HALF OF CWA BY LATE AFTN. RIDGE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW BLYR WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FM S SO WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LK BREEZES DEVELOP OFF LK SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN IN AFTN. CURRENT LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE SHORE AND UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND LOOKS FINE. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN FLOW DEVLOPS LATER TUE NIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON FAR N PLAINS. SW H85 JET TO 30 KT AND H85-H7 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0C/KM MAY SUPPORT SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TUE NIGHT OVR ECNTRL MN/W CNTRL WI AND PERHAPS INTO FAR SW UPR MI. NAM QUITE ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE IDEA WHILE GFS KEEPS TIGHTER H85 GRADIANT FAR ENOUGH SW TO KEEP POPS OUT OF CWA. CANADIAN GLOBAL SHOWS NO QPF. NO POPS ATTM...BUT DID INCREASE SKY COVER ALONG BORDER LATE TUE INTO WED AM. .EXTENDED...GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT PATTERN FOR THE WED-SUN PERIOD. EXPECT TROUGH OFFSHORE OF PAC NW COAST TO PRESS INTO SW CANADA MON-TUE AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUCKS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE S TIER OF CANADA THROUGH WED...THEN SLIGHTLY DIG INTO UPR LAKES THU/FRI. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT WITH IDEA WHICH IS PREFERRED BY HPC. UNTIL THE TROUGH ARRIVES WED NIGHT-THU...H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C AND SW WINDS FM SFC-H85 SHOULD PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS TO AROUND 90F ON WED. BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU. AS MID SHIFT NOTED 00Z RUNS ARE FASTER WITH LEAD FRONT...PROGGING IT INTO CNTRL UPR MI AS EARLY AS 12Z THU. A SECONDARY FRONT WITH COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE DURING THIS TIME. UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THOUGH...TEMPS MAY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S EVEN ON THU...EXCEPT ON KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW WILL COOL THINGS SLIGHTLY. HUNG ON TO POPS INTO FAR E THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...THEN HIGH PRES AND DRY/COOLER WX BUILDS IN LATER FRI INTO SAT. 00Z GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH NEXT WAVE CROSSING SCNTRL CANADA SUN. WILL KEEP SUN DRY FOR NOW AS OTHER MODELS AND EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED. SEEMS THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WOULD BE VERY LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT SO WILL LEAVE FCST DRY. COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 247 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY TONIGHT...THEN EMPHASIS IS ON TEMPERATURES. ETA AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE ETA A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT TONIGHT. GFS WAS FOLLOWED. THE SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARIES ARE NEARING OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...AS WINDS ARE VEERING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST AS SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA VWPS. CU FIELD DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE YET TO GET GOING. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM GFS AND RUC SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION(CIN) AROUND 800MB. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MLCAPE IS 2000-2500J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES. LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF OF MPX AND DLH VWP'S SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 25KT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT NOT GO TO HIGH WITH POP'S DUE TO THE CIN. IF STORMS DO GET GOING...SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND THE HIGH MLCAPE'S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FLOW RETURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES MOVE EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WARM AND WE INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER MOS. && .AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CRANE LAKE TO AITKIN LINE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ MELDE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 333 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... IN THE SHORT TERM COULD NOT IMPROVE ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...SO VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW THIS EVENING...DID NOT WANT TO CUT THINGS OFF AT 00Z. RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOWER 70S. GENERALLY TRIED TO STICK TO GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS WEST SLIGHTLY...BUT NO REAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE EAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WERE WEAK ON ALL LEVELS...INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS WEAK. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FFG VALUES REMAIN IN THE 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE...HOWEVER SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUDS KEPT A FEW LOCATIONS FROM WARMING TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WERE NEAR 90...EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR ALL GROUPS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUDS TO MAKE ALL AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. SOLID CLOUD DECK NEVER MOVE INTO THE AREA...SAW GENERAL AFTERNOON CU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND COME BACK LATE MORNING. A FEW TWEAKS...BUT NO REAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. LONG TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND THE SFC REFLECTION WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE (2 IN + PWS) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE NOW IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HOLDING ONTO THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY BUILD A LITTLE AND SHIFT EAST. AS THIS OCCURS THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE SE US BY LATE WEEK INSTEAD OF RETROGRADING INTO TX. WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? TUE-WED SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH RESPECT TO POPS...ESPECIALLY EAST 1/2. THIS IS NO CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THU IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE AS THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE RIDGE MAY KEEP THE CONVECTION SUPPRESSED IF IT MOVES IN FASTER. WHAT I HAVE DONE IS KEEP POPS GOING AS IS FOR THU AND STAYED WITH THE 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR ONE MORE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCING OUR WX MORE ON FRI-SUN I HAVE STARTED A DRYING TREND AND HAVE BEGUN TO DROP BELOW GUIDANCE FOR POPS A BIT. AS FOR TEMPS...TUE-WED WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS. I HAVE ONLY INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT FROM THE PREV FORECAST SO I WOULD NOT BE SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...ALONG AND E OF THE MS RIVER WE WILL SEE HIGHS BETWEEN 88-90 WITH 90-92 W OF THE RIVER. LESS CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THU-SUN. CURRENT FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON AN DIDN'T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE I MADE WAS TO START A MORE CLIMO FAVORABLE SKY COVER TREND BEYOND THU. BASICALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT LINGER LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN. /CME/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 73 90 73 90 / 40 60 40 60 MERIDIAN 71 89 72 88 / 50 80 50 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 07/36 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 343 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING AS MESO LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. LATEST RUC SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE...HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...FOR NOW PATCHY FOG SHOULD SUFFICE. MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE FLOODING. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION TOMORROW BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP OUTSIDE THE FA. BOTH NAM AND CANADIAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FACT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DID A GOOD JOB FORECASTING PRECIP LOCATION AND AMOUNTS FOR TODAY...SEE NO REASON NOT TO TRUST THEM FOR TOMORROW. KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH QPF VALUES UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THIS DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW. SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER NAM/CANADIAN OVER THE 12Z GFS WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY. BELOW CLIMO HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... REMAINS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE ILM AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH NEXT WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH DEVELOPS. DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIMIT POPS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCREASED MOISTURE RESULTS IN BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && MARINE... CURRENTLY A MESOSCALE LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST WITH ITS CENTER NEAR THE COAST JUST NORTH OF WINYAH BAY. WINDS AT THE CARO-COOPS BUOY SUN2 HAD A MAX OF 16 KTS IN THE CONVECTION BUT THE RADAR IS SHOWING A 30 TO 35 KT AT 1000 FT. REPORTS ON THE COAST INDICATE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL MENTION STRONGER WIND AND SEAS WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION BUT AS MESO LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION ANTICIPATE SEAS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS AS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVE WATCH SHOWING SEA OF 2 TO 3 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && AVIATION... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THE COASTAL TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WHILE INLAND AT KFLO PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES IN/NEAR CONVECTION...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KFLO WITH THE FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ MARINE...HAWKINS AVIATION...JAQ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 215 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... THIS EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE SAVANNAH BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT NE THROUGH THE RAH CWA 20-02Z THIS EVENING. LATEST VWP PLOTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT WITH CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RUC SHOWS AN AXIS OF DEEP SATURATION WITH A SHARP INVERTED 850-700 MB TROUGH BISECTING THE CWA SW-NE AND A PERTURBATION RUNNING UP THE TROUGH 21-03Z. DEEP CONVECTION/MCS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW UP THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST IN THE LOWER COASTAL PLAIN AND THERE MAY BE A SHADOWING EFFECT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY. EVIDENCE IN NEAR TERM TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SUPPORT KEEPING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS NE. TRENDS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL ALIGNMENT FOR THIS EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH A JET AXIS SHIFT EAST BY 06Z...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR LOWS TONIGHT 67-72 NW-SE. MON-TUE...SFC-850 FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC MID MONDAY. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE GFS WET AND NAM DRYING THE AIR FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT POP GRIDS COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE TWO AND SHOWING A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SE HALF ARE FAVORED. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ADDED FOR MON NGT AND TUE UNDER MOSTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND 88-92 ON TUE. LOWS 67-71. WED-WED NGT...HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC-850 RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERALLY DRIER AIRMASS...BUT ETA SHOWS AN UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FOR NOW UNTIL IT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. NAM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS 20M GREATER THAN GFS...BUT A COMPROMISE AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WED WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER WED THAN TUE. LOWS WED NGT...68-72. -RFG && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. THE FLOW REMAINS WEAK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS ENHANCES THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE LIFT...RAISING POPS TO A CHANCE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 85 TO 90. -DGS && .AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CIGS NORTH TO MVFR CIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN WILL LOWER VIS/CIGS TO IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING MODERATE RAIN AND LOWER VIS/CIGS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA TODAY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO LOW CIGS TONIGHT...WITH LIFR LIKELY BEING REACHED AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR A LITTLE FASTER TOMORROW THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. -DGS && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078- 083>086-088-089 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...RFG LONG TERM...DGS AVIATION...DGS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 224 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... FORECAST BASICALLY A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. MAV MOS CONTINUES TO HAVE A COLD BIAS OF ABOUT 3 DEGREES ON THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO HAVE NUDGED THOSE UP. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IN AND JUST WEST OF MOUNTAINS WILL MEAN FOG THERE WITH DRY AIR/GROUND OHIO RIVER WEST KEEPING FOG OUT THERE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1258 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) AVIATION... TONIGHT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. FOG OVER AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS LIFR DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. VICINITY OHIO RIVER WEST SKC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRYER AIR AND GROUND CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO 6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME. WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN JEOPARDY WED. ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS. GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE. CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S. LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S. ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250 MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1258 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .AVIATION... TONIGHT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. FOG OVER AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS LIFR DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. VICINITY OHIO RIVER WEST SKC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRYER AIR AND GROUND CONDITIONS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO 6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME. WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN JEOPARDY WED. ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS. GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE. CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S. LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S. ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250 MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005) AVIATION... DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER. EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 200 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 .SHORT TERM...TNGT AND MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TSTM CHCS AND TEMPS. MID-AFTN SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF FM KINL TO KHON...AND WRMFNT ACRS LS TO NRN LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH MDT INSTAB EXISTS ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA...VRY LTL IN THE WAY OF MECHANISM TO LIFT PARCELS ATTM. EARLY AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AROUND ATW INDCT CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY LAYER AROUND 840-860 MB. 00Z NMM WRF...12Z NAM AND 15Z RUC DO INDCT INCREASED CHC FOR ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION BTWN 00Z-06Z ACRS NRN HALF OF FCST AREA AHD OF SFC TROF AND WK MID-LVL SHRTWV TROF. FCST TEMPS FOR TNGT AND MON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND AVN MOS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. TIMING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ALONG WITH S/WS ON THIS NORTHERN PERIMETER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AREA. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO WASH OUT A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. RETURN FLOW STARTS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND GFS/NAM PROGGED PCPN TO SPREAD OVER. HOWEVER DUE TO RECENT TIMING CHALLENGES WITH S/WS AND DEALING WITH AN AIR MASS WHICH WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY IN RESPECT TO SATURATE...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN STILL FROM WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE UPER RIDGE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN AGAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER S/W TROF TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ JKL/HELMAN WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY wi