SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST THU JUL 15 1999
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST.
NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY. THE AIR CONTINUES TO BE QUITE MOIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA...BUT SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY TO DECREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVED OVER S-CNTRL AZ THIS
MORNING AND PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED EWD AND IS NOW PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
JUST SE OF THE PHX CWA. THE ETA INITIALIZED THE TROUGH AND VORT MAX
FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH WITH
IT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF WEATHER IT PRODUCED. DATA HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO COME IN THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY 12 HOURS OF THE ETA AND NO
NGM. THE RUC DID NOT DO WELL ON INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM OVER S-CNTRL
AZ THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE 00Z MODEL SERIES...WITH
THE ETA CONSIDERED BEST...SHOWED ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPPING IN OVER
THE S-CNTRL AZ AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THAT
IDEA...SO WILL LEAVE THAT AS IS...BUT WILL UPDATE FOR CURRENT TRENDS
AND ASSOCIATED CHANGES IN THE FIRST PERIOD. WILT
FXUS65 KPSR 151645 az
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
218 AM MST THU JUL 15 1999
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY
FEED DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND...A FEW STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
MIGRATE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS STILL
FAVORS MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS...THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.
DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW HAS COMMENCED, BUT WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET (OR TROPICAL RAIN FOREST AS THE CASE MAY BE). A SLEEPER
SHORT WAVE IN THE KLAS AREA, WHICH IS FUELING A SMALL, SLOW-MOVING
MCS NEAK KIGM, WAS ONLY PICKED UP WELL BY THE ETA AND RUC. THEY TAKE
IT ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH A TRAILING, WEAK LOBE THROUGH SE AZ
JUST AFTER 00Z. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT, THAT MAY NOT BE TOO BAD.
FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES AREN'T AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, SO THE DEGREE
OF RELOADING IS IN DOUBT. HOWEVER, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
(PRECIP WATERS IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE) WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING
EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE VORT
AND THE 300MB HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS
AS FAR NORTH AS PINAL COUNTY. THE SLOW DRYING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP OUR FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOWN, BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND MAY NEED TO BEEF UP WORDING ONCE WE GET THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA.
THE TORRENTIAL RAIN OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA LAST NIGHT HAS
REALLY SATURATED THINGS WITH MANY WASHES STILL RUNNING THIS MORNING.
TO SUM UP, PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OTHER THAN A DOWNWARD
TWEAK ON HIGHS TODAY AND SLIGHT POP INCREASES FROM TUCSON EAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOMORROW DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A DOWNER WITH
LOWER THETA-E AND SOME WARMING ALOFT. WEAK FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP DUE TO LESS
CLOUD COVER. NO MRF AVAILABLE AS YET, BUT OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
MAINTAIN A TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THAT SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT
EXTENDED WITH ONLY THE WESTERN DESERTS CUTOFF FROM THE MONSOON FLOW.
PYTLAK
.TWC...NONE.
az
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
855 PM PDT THU JUL 15 1999
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...WILL CLEAR EACH MORNING. IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY...WITH SEASONAL WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES IN ALL AREAS.
NO UPDATES PLANNED AS CURRENT PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
AN UPR TROUGH OVR THE PAC NW WL WEAKEN DURG THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WK
SWLY FLOW ALF REMAINING OVR SRN CA THRU THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS ALF AND
THICKNESSES LWR SLIGHTLY FRI...CHANGE LTL SAT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BUILD SUN. WK TO MDT ONSHR LOW LVL FLOW WL CONTINUE THRU SUN WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR WK CSTL EDDY FORMATION EACH NIGHT. ALG THE
SRN CA CST...THE HEIGHT OF THE MARINE INVERSION BASE RANGED FM 1000
TO 1200 FT ALG THE CSTL PLAIN OF THE ORANGE AND LOS ANGELES CSTS PER HIGH
VERTICAL RESOLUTION ACARS SOUNDINGS FM LAX AND SNA...TO AROUND 1500
FT ALG THE SAN COUNTY CST PER THE 00Z NKX RAOB AND SFC REPORTS. THIS
IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LTL CHANGE FOR SAT...
THEN A SLOW DECR IN MARINE LYR DEPTH FOR SUN. DEPTH OF MARINE LYR
APPEARS MARGINAL FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE INLAND EMPIRE...BUT
CURRENT "PATCHY" WORDING FOR EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY APPEARS
REASONABLE (I.E. ...LATE ARRIVAL...SHORT DURATION...LIMITED AREAL
EXTENT).
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVR THE ERN SBD MTNS THIS ARTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
DESERT BETWEEN DAGGETT AND TWENTYNINE PALMS. BOTH THE K/F ETA AND
MAPS/RUC PICKED UP ON THIS DEVELOPMENT...SOMETHING THE OPERATIONAL
ETA WAS UNABLE TO DO. MDLS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING OF THE MID
LVLS FOR FRI WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DECR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
AS THE UPR TROUGH ALG THE W CST WKNS DURG THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SOME MID LVL MSTR MAY BEGIN TO SEEP BACK INTO SRN CA FM
THE E FOR AT LEAST SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVR THE MTNS...IF NOT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL EXTENDED
MDLS KP SUFFICIENT...THOUGH WK...UPR TROUGHING ALG THE W CST NEXT
WEEK TO KP SUCH MSTR RETURN AND ASSOCD CONVECTION MINIMAL FOR SRN
CA.
SAN 0000
.SAN...NONE.
MARTIN
FXUS66 KSTO 160348 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
HAD A SOLID LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH
PRODUCED SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS IN THE EYW AREA. HAVE
ALSO SEEN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS...BUT MOST ACT IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS AND
BETWEEN THE UPPER KEYS AND THE CAY SAL BANK.
SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE TUTT LOW IN THE ATLANTIC
HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING ANY CLOSER TO THE CWA. MOISTURE AROUND
RIDGE IN CARIBBEAN AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA. LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS THERE IS A FLAREUP OF
CONVECTION EAST OF THE KEYS...BETWEEN THE UPPER KEYS...THE CAY SAL
BANK AND ANDROS ISLAND. EASTERLY FLOW UP TO AROUND 500 MBS WILL SEND
THIS ACTIVITY TOWARD THE KEYS TONIGHT...AND WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
STILL AROUND FROM EARLIER I WOULD RECOMMEND MIA RAISE POPS FOR THE
KEYS TONIGHT. I WILL DO THE SAME FOR THE LOWER KEYS IN LFPEYW.
I WILL LIKELY RAISE POPS TO 50% AND MENTION HEAVY RAINS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE MORE
RAIN-COOLED AIR...SO WILL LOWER TEMPS. ILL ALSO CHANGE SKY COVER TO
VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
IN MARINE FORECAST...WIND AT C-MAN SITES UNTIL 00Z HAD BEEN RUNNING
AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS....BUT NOW UP TO 13 TO 16 KNOTS AND GUSTING.
NO WIND DATA FROM SOUNDING IN EYW THIS EVENING...BUT VAD WIND
PROFILE AND 21Z RUC HAS NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL SEE IF WIND
HOLDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OR IS IT JUST TEMPORARY AND FROM OUTFLOWS FROM
CONVECTION. IF IT DOES HOLD STEADY I WILL RAISE WINDS AND SEAS IN
MARINE PORTION OF LFP.
.EYW...NONE.
MOHLIN
FXUS62 KEYW 160108 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
DEEP AND MOIST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO LEAVE COASTAL SHOWERS IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AGAIN FROM THE CAPE SOUTH. RUC AND MESOETA MID LEVEL MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
LOOPS SHOW DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORK ITS WAY OVER THE STATE
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD THE THREAT OF ANY COASTAL WATERS STORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING FOR THE INLAND
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS OK.
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPPER
LEVEL TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
DECENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM AT LEAST THE CAPE SOUTHWARD
THRU THE FORECAST PERIODS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS BEING REDUCED
PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FA. ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE AM TO AROUND NOON HOURS ALONG THE
COAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/AVN/NGM ALL SHOW THAT
PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW CLIMO BY FRIDAY AND STAY JUST
NEAR CLIMO THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST. ONLY A MENTION OF SLIGHT
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE MOST OF THE FA FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST INTO THE FA.
ALL MODELS PROG THE TUTT LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FA INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ADVECTING NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TUTT LOW BY 12Z SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR THE FA FOR SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE CLOSE WITH BOTH MODELS
AND BASICALLY ACCEPTED.
.MARINE...BUOY 10...LAPS AND MSAS MESOSCALE DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB BB 073/088 073/089 074 11121
MCO BB 073/092 074/091 074 11221
MLB BB 075/089 076/089 076 11121
.MLB...NONE
WIMMER/TROUTMAN
FXUS62 KTAE 151854 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
230 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
NGM/ETA/RUC MODEL ANALYSIS CONTINUED TREND OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NGM IS THE MOST FERVANT WITH THIS
TREND WHILE THE ETA DOWNPLAYS IT. FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TBW FORECAST AREA IN E-SE DEEP FLOW WITH LATE
OFFSHORE AM AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GOOD CHANCE
OF LATE DAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WEST FLORIDA COAST
NEXT TWO DAYS. NGM MOS TEMPS ACCEPTED. FAN PRECIP VALUES BETTER.
ZALESKI
FXUS62 KEYW 151758 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1025 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS SE GA. RADAR HAS SHOWN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUGGEST REMOVING MENTION OF AFTERNOON IN COASTAL WATERS.
RUC AND MESO-ETA INDICATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONCENTRATED OVER NE
FL AND BECOMING STRONGER BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
ZONES HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS INLAND TODAY AND CHANCE COASTAL AREAS.
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS GIVEN MORNING SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED LOWER
PW AND LITTLE MORE STABLE ATMOS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MODIFIED LI
-6 AND CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG. ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO AID TSTMS. NGM SEEMED TO BE
THE STRONGEST WITH REGARD TO THIS COMPARED TO AVN AND ETA. ST.
AUGUSTINE CMAN SHOWS 6-8 KT SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SEA BREEZE.
FOR NOW...WILL NOT CHANGE FORECAST.
ARS
FXUS62 KTBW 151412 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEA BREEZE STARTING TO SET UP
EARLY ALONG THE COAST. RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME
COMING ONSHORE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE
FORMED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEAK EASTERLY JET
APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. SUSPECT THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS THE MID LEVEL SUBSISTENCE ASSOCIATED ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A TUTT CELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AGREE WITH MIA
ABOUT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL EASTERLIES STRENGTHENING. THE RUC
GUIDANCE WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID ALSO SUPPORTS THE
EASTERLIES STRENGTHENING
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT OF RAIN FOR THE
INLAND COUNTIES AND REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS FROM BREVARD
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.
MARINE...BUOY 10 INDICATING CONSISTENT 10 KNOT SOUTHEAST WIND AND
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
.MLB...NONE
WIMMER/TROUTMAN
FXUS72 KMFL 151333 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
RESENT...AN EARLY VERSION OF THE AFD WAS ACCIDENTLY RELEASED.
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER APALACHEE
BAY...WERE RUC AND WV IMAGERY INDICATE A VORT CENTER MOVING THROUGH
THAT REGION. GRAYS REEF WIND INSTRUMENT STILL NOT REPORTING BUT
GUSTS...10 METER WINDS AND SEAS ALL APPEAR TO BE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT CWF PRODUCT.
SYNOPTIC...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OFF HAT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
SW INTO COASTAL GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A VORT
CENTER ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES FROM COASTAL SC SW
ACROSS SE GA TO NEAR TLH...BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY
BROAD AND DIFFUSE. THE ETA MODEL MAINTAINS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
MOISTURE. THIS MODEL SHIFTS THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER S-CENTRAL
GA TODAY AND SW TO THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW. NGM INDICATES MORE
AVAILABLE DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING BUT DRIES THE REGION OUT
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
BUILDING MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.
TODAY...ALL MODELS EXHIBIT A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ENHANCE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT IN INLAND AREAS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD SHIELD THE EAST COAST FROM SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. AVG 1ST PERIOD HI TEMP ERROR AT AMG THIS WEEK IS +4 SO
WILL GO WITH THE FLOW AND SHAVE 4 DEGREES OFF THE FWC HIGH TEMP.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.
WITH THE SERLY FLOW CONTINUING THE COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVERNIGHT...SEE IT AS A SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL GO 20 PCNT.
FRIDAY AND MARINE...THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 31-32 NORTH. CONVECTION SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF
TODAY WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS. COASTAL WINDS SHOULD BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH A LONG FETCH AREA...SEAS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY BUILDING...SUGGEST
KEEPING SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH OUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PRELIM
AMG 85/71/88/71 4132
SSI 88/74/85/75 3232
JAX 90/72/89/73 2222
GNV 91/69/92/68 4131 05
SANDRIK
FXUS62 KJAX 151014 COR fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WITHIN A NARROW BAND ACROSS S
CNTRL/SE GA THIS EVENING. VIL'S EVEN MADE IT UP TO 45 KG/M**2.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00/HOUR+ ALSO INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER
STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOTS OF LIGHTNING DETECTED IN THESE STORMS AS
WELL AND REPORTED BY PUBLIC. JUST ISSUED AN FFS TO COVER REPORTS OF
STREET FLOODING IN TELFAIR COUNTY. ACTIVITY TENDS TO MOVE LITTLE
...RAIN ITSELF OUT IN ONE PLACE...AND THEN DEVELOP ON THE OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTH. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE N GA MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST NEAR THE GA/SC/TN BORDER AREA AT
THIS HOUR.
21Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED VORTICITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR CAE TO
MCN TO VLD TO TLH. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED
ALONG THIS AXIS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A DISTINCT WEAKNESS IN THE
500 MB RIDGE NOTED ALONG THE SAME AXIS. -3 TO -4 LI'S ALSO POOLED IN
THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY. RUC MODEL INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL
REORIENT ITSELF IN A N-S MANNER OVERNIGHT FROM ATL TO AYS. AND
MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY THROUGH 09Z. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER
VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS OVER S AL AND ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST
OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY WELL PERSIST IN THE SOUTH LONGER THAN USUAL
TONIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED GIVEN RUC PATTERN...THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD MCN AND POSSIBLY EVEN ATL WITH TIME...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INCREASE POPS IN AREAS ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND TAKE OUT TIMING. ACTIVITY OVER THE N GA
MOUNTAINS HAS LITTLE SUPPORT TO WORK WITH AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE ON TARGET. WILL TAKE LOOK AT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE SENDING OUT UPDATE. WILL ADD FOG TO MOST
ZONES AS FOG LIKELY TO FORM MANY AREAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NEAR SATURATED AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.
.ATL...NONE.
RAB
FXUS72 KFFC 151900 ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
928 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
CURRENT STLT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SCT TO BKN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTH. CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER MINNESOTA FIRING IN A LARGE AREA OF 850 DEW PTS TO 16C AND AREA OF
850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE... IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE LATEST RUC SHOWING UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH THE BEST 850 DEW PTS AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS REMAINING WEST AND NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND VORT MAX
CURRENTLY GENERATING THE LIFT FOR THE MINNESOTA CONVECTION... IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT REMAINING WEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR... AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
FOR TONIGHT... WILL LEAVE PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KMQT 152022 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1120 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CAPES AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA...RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000
J/KG AROUND 18Z. ETA THEN BRINGS A BULLSEYE OF CAPE WITH VALUES NEAR
3500 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN U.P. AT 00Z. ALSO...LI'S GET AS LOW AS -6
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
MID-LAYER PUT A GOOD CAP ON THE INSTABILITY. WARM FRONT APPEARED TO
BE NORTH OF FA AT 14Z BASED ON SFC OBS...AND UPPER FORCING WAS
LACKING GIVEN RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER FA.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FA AT 14Z. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT.
WEAK BL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM. RUC AND MESOETA BOTH
INDICATE LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC CONVERGENCE INDICATED
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. ETA IS A LITTLE QUICKER IN
INCREASING BL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE RUC. CONCERN IS FOR
WHETHER OR NOT LAKE BREEZES...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...ARE STRONG ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME CAPPING. FOR THE
UPDATE I WILL ADD CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN ZONES...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT GIVEN THE INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.
TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS FOR LAKE
BREEZES.
.MQT...NONE.
JS
FXUS63 KGRR 151446 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
552 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
JUST ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
HASTEN CLOUD LOSS. LATEST RUC SHOWS THETA-E RIDGE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
JET DEPART THIS MORNING. NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE UPDATED TO DROP POPS
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SUPPORT DIMINISHES.
.APX...NONE.
BAK
mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999
ONLY QUESTION ON UPDATE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA. TREND OF LATEST RUC MODEL IS TO COOL LOW LEVELS
SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP IN
CENTRAL...HAVE REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AREA. BEST
GRADIENT ALONG WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT IS TO NORTHWEST OF
AREA...HAVE REDUCED WINDS IN WISCONSIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK GOOD FOR AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION WILL
NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY.
.MSP...NONE
SCOTT
FXUS63 KMPX 150851 mn
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT THU JUL 15 1999
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT FOR SOME DRYING ALOFT.
QUITE COOL AIR...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRYING VERY LITTLE ACCORDING TO
00Z RUC. PLUS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE. OTHERWISE THERE
COULD BE SOME FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS IF THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WINDS
BECOME CALM. NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTING A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE INTO MONTANA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE NGM AND ETA QPF...WHICH ARE NORMALLY
OVERDONE...VASCILATE ON PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL UPDATE
ZONES AND STATE FORECASTS TO DROP ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MAYBE
DROP A FEW FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT. OARD
GTF 0112 HLN 0013 HVR 1112
FXUS65 KGGW 160301 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 AM MDT THU JUL 15 1999
...ZONES WILL BE UPDATED...
COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO THE
DAKOTAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CLEARING TREND TAKING PLACE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW IN NWRN MONTANA PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY/TONIGHT. SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATED BY 12Z RUC. THIS MIGHT MAKE ATMOS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EVNG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER
WITH LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE THANKS TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND
FOR SERN MONTANA THIS EVNG. WILL ALSO RAISE FIRST PERIOD TEMPS A TAD IN
SHERIDAN SINCE THEY ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AND SHOULD HAVE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE TODAY. DS
BIL BB 080/049 080/053 084 62222
LVM .. 075/046 075/... ... 62222
HDN .. 081/048 081/... ... 62222
MLS .. 082/053 080/050 ... 62222
4BQ .. 084/055 082/... ... 62222
BHK .. 081/048 080/... ... 62222
SHR BB 085/048 081/050 083 62222
FXUS65 KMSO 150954 mt
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
910 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999
SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A HIGH LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR
SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY LEADING INTO A DRY PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IDENTIFIES HIGH LEVEL SHEAR
VORTICITY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STARTING TO CROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
SIERRA OVER MONO AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. RUC AND MESO-ETA MODELS
AGREE PUSHING HIGH LEVEL VORTICITY AROUND 200-300 MB TO THE E-NE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY AROUND 400-500 MB ROUNDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ANTICYCLONE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MID
LEVEL UNSTABLE LOOKING CLOUDS ARE ALREADY EDGING THROUGH SOUTHERN NYE
COUNTY TOWARDS SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTIES PRETTY
MUCH IN BETWEEN ABOVE TWO TRAJECTORIES. MESO-ETA AND RUC ALSO
IDENTIFY BEST LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEVADA TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT COME INTO AREA AS WELL
DEFINED AS LAST NIGHTS NOW EDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT FEEL
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFTING TO RAISE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEVADA TO SCATTERED LEVELS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ALSO IDENDTIFIES SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING
HAS OCCURED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DOWN NEARLY
1/2 INCH. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME INCREASE IN
THE SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY...BUT ACCORDING TO RUC/MESO-ETA
NOT AS STRONG AS IN GOING FORECAST. AND ALSO NOT ENOUGH WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO BRING NOTABLE SURFACE DRYING VERY MUCH INTO OUR AREA YET
TODAY. WILL LEAVE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ALONE FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE STILL LYING
EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUPPORTING SCATTERED COVERAGE
VERSUS ISOLATED TO THE WEST. DECENT WESTERLY CELL MOVEMENT TODAY AND
GENERALLY LOWER CAPES IN ADDITION TO LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS
MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT TROUBLE EITHER FROM HIGH
WIND THREAT OR FLASH FLOODING.
AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT DEGREE OF DRYING
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AND HOW LONG BEFORE MONSOON RETURNS.
MCQUEEN
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KLKN 151549 nv
WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
845 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999
DRIER AIRMASS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH DEW POINTS
DOWN AS MUCH AS AROUND 30 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST NEVADA. ALSO COOLER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS DOWN AROUND 5 DEGREES AND AROUND 3-4
DEGREES THROUGH 600 MB ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. MAIN THREAT TODAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
SURFACE FRONT FROM AROUND A SALT LAKE TO AUSTIN TO BRIDGEPORT LINE AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX HEADING INTO SOUTHERN SIERRA.
RUC BRINGS PORTION OF VORT MAX ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL FOCUS WITH FRONT SHOULD KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY. PIKE
.REV...EASTERN CALIFORNIA...NONE.
WESTERN NEVADA...NONE.
FXUS65 KVEF 151106 nv
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
405 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999
SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA TODAY. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY LEADING INTO A DRY PATTERN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER MOHAVE COUNTY EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NEW STORMS FIRING
OVER ADJACENT COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EVIDENT FROM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES TO NOTE ARE THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN IDAHO AND
ALSO A WEAKER MID LEVEL CIRCULATION GENERATING VERTICAL MOTION OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. OTHER MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
LATTER WELL BUT ACCORDING TO THE 09Z RUC...THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG THE COAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE 00Z DRA SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...1.03 INCHES VERSUS ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...BUT ENOUGH FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL BE QUICK TO LEAVE SO MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS TODAY FOR MOST
ZONES IS WARRANTED WITH MOHAVE COUNTY A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING TREND WILL BECOME MORE EVIDENT FRIDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY FOCUS SOME CONVECTION
OVER NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES INTO THE NIGHT SO ADDED MENTION TO
RESPECTIVE ZONES.
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW DRY PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY AND A POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. JGA
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 150945 nv
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
EVERYTHING IN THE MORNING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES. PARTLY SUNNY WILL WORK OUT WELL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUF/84 ALY/82 SO CU WILL BE DVLPG THIS AFTERNOON. RUC
DETAILS A LITTLE VORT MAX MOVG THROUGH W. NY NOW AND IS REFLECTED IN SAT
VIEW/OBS WITH SOME 12000 FT AC. RUC ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE PVA ASSOC WITH
TROF AND CLOUD REMNANTS OF THIS MORNING'S MCS IN UPPER MICH...EXPECT
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH THIS PASSING
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.
WORK ZONES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY FOR COORDINATION.
.BGM...NONE.
CHIARAMONTE
FXUS61 KOKX 151322 ny
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1022 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NW MN
INTO EAST CENTRAL ND THIS AM AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE SEVERE STORMS HAVE LIFTED NE
OUT OF EXTREME NW MN...BUT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER
SW ND/NW SD AND AHEAD OF VORT LOBE PUSHING THROUGH ND THIS AM. LATEST
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING THIS AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
LIGHTNING STRIKES. 12Z RUC INDICATES THAT LIS OVER FA TO CONTINUE TO
FALL...REACHING TO AS LOW AS -11 OVER FAR ERN ZONES BY 18Z WHERE MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED. WITH RADAR...SFC AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTING
INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND WITH THIS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL UP POPS ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE
ND. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGHS TEMPS DOWN OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND NW MN AND WILL CUT HIGHS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. SE ZONE TEMP TRENDS ON TRACK AS READINGS THERE ALREADY IN
THE LOWER 80S.
WILL SEND UPDATED ZFP SHORTLY.
TURNER
FXUS63 KFGF 150818 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999
WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNINGS PROFILERS 850MB
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN FROM OVERNIGHT...BUT 12Z RUC SHOWS A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR JUST IN CASE WE
NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THESE AREAS UP LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE FORECAST
HAS THINGS IN HAND. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONT TO MONITOR.
30
.OUN...
OK...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
TX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
FXUS64 KOUN 150906 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
922 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
HAD PRETTY GOOD SH/TSRA COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS AND PART OF THE NRN
FOOTHILLS THIS EVE. RUC AND 18Z ETA SHOWED GOOD SHORT WAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA FOR THE EVENING. CONVECTION WANING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH
MAKING SOME NWD PROGRESS...HAS ENTERED KGSP 124 NM RANGE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF OUR CWFA. WILL REMOVE EVENING WORDING FOR POPS
IN MTNS. WILL PROBABLY ADD VALLEY FOG WORDING TO CENTRAL AND SRN NC
MTNS SINCE GOOD AMOUNTS OF FOG FORMED THERE LAST NIGHT AND LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HAD SOME FOG OUTSIDE
OF MTNS LAST NIGHT BUT PATCHY...SO WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. CURRENT
FCST TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGES THERE.
.GSP...NONE.
RWH
FXUS62 KCHS 160121 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
921 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
TIDE DEPARTURES CONT TO RUN HIGH AND XPCT ONLY MINOR FLOODING. CONV
CONT TO FIRE ALONG BNDRY AND THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH ARND
MIDNIGHT. 00Z RAOB SHOWS A CONT JUICED ATMOS WITH CAPES ARND 4 K...
LI -8 AND 2+ PW. WL DROP POPS TO LOW CHNC. XPCT TO SEE A RETURN OF
FOG LATE TNGT WITH SOME DENSE AREAS ALONG THE CST. SKIES PC AND
TEMPS ON CURRENT PACKAGE LOOK GOOD.
CWF...NO MAJOR CHGS PLANNED ON UPDATE. CURRENT MARINE OBS SHOW A
LGT ELY FLOW. RUC SHOWS WINDS BECMG LGT WLY ACRS MARINE AREA LT.
SO PERHAPS LGT/VRBL 10 KTS OR LESS WILL DO. WILL CALL FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION ACRS CSTL WATERS FOR RMNDR OF THE NGT. SHALLOW CSTL
FLOODING PSBL LTR TNGT.
.CHS...
SC...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.
GA...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.
JCI/JAC
FXUS62 KCAE 160101 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
900 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
RUC SHOWING CONVECTION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VICINITY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. WILL PROBABLY CARRY 20/30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FEW COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.
.CAE...NONE.
CHARNICK
FXUS62 KCHS 151918 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
CURRENT GSP VAD WINDS DISPLAY NE DIRECTION WHICH IS BASICALLY ALONG
TERRAIN RATHER THAN UPSLOPE. THIS DIRECTION SIMILAR TO LOW-LEVEL
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED WINDS FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS MRNG. THUS...VIRTUALLY
NO UPSLOPE FLOW ATTM. 03Z ETA AND 09Z RUC FCST LGT LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
BCM SE LATER TDA. THUS...WK UPSLOPE WILL DVLP AND CREATE
CORRESPONDINGLY WK FORCING FOR AFTN CNVCTN. TRADITIONAL STABILITY
INDICES ON THE LOW SIDE AND ILL-DEFINED E/W TROF EVIDENT AT 850/700 MB
NR NRN BORDER OF CWA SHOULD NOT BE MAJOR PLAYER SO DO NOT EXCEPT SIG
SHWR/TSTM DVLPMNT. CURRENT TEMP FCSTS SEEM TO BE GOOD...BUT WILL HAVE
TO LOOK AT SAT PIX TO CHECK ON CLOUD TRENDS BFR FINALIZING AFTN MAXES.
LGL
FXUS62 KCAE 151358 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
932 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
LATEST VIS SAT AND OBS SUGGEST BREAKS WILL CONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS. RUC FCST SOUNDING OVR CWA ALSO IS INITIALLY SATURATED BUT SHOWS
DRYING BY AFTN. THIS MEANS NO WEDGE OVR AREA AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SE BY
AFTN. WITH DECREASING CLDS WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. RUC SHOWS
SHORT WAVE THRU THIS AFTN OVR THE CWA AND LI'S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE.
WITH THE INCREASE IN SUN...MDT INSTABILITY...AND BREAKDOWN OF WEDGE
BELIEVE THAT WDLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP CURRENT
POPS RANGING FROM 30 TO 50 PCT. HIGHEST POP OF 50 PCT IS IN SRN PTN OF
CWA IN KEEPING WITH LATEST RUC PCPN FCST.
.CAE...NONE.
BLP
FXUS62 KCHS 151352 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
952 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. 09Z RUC INDICATING SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. BUT NO SURFACE TRIGGER AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY. SURFACE OBS AND
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OVER MOST OF THE CWA...
ALLOWING FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY. FEW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOME CU PROBABLY FORMING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK ON TRACK.
GH
FXUS74 KMEG 150903 tn
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
940 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF FA TODAY. PW SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES AND THIS IS WHERE RUC IS DEVELOPING PRECIP
THIS AFT. A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING JUST EAST OF FA AND OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. WILL RE-ALIGN ZONES TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
UPPER COAST AND EXT EAST...ELSEWHERE EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND
LOW-MID 90 HIGH TEMPS.
NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO MARINE ZONES.
.HGX...NONE.
33/40
UPDATED PRELIMS...
CLL BB 094/073 094/073 093 002
IAH BB 094/073 094/074 092 --3
GLS BB 089/080 089/081 089 223
FXUS64 KBRO 151437 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
310 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999
AWIPS PROBLEMS HAS LEAD ME BACK TO AFOS THIS AFTERNOON. SAT IMAGE
INDICATED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CWA WITH MOST OF THE CU IN THE
MOUNTAINS. REFERRAL TO THE KFCX 88D...SHOWED THAT A FEW SHOWERS HAD
DEVELOPED IN THE SW MOUNTAINS. WEAK EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS
RESULTED IN SOME LIFT. SATELLITE MOISTURE LOOP HAD DRIER AIR ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA TODAY...BUT DID DISPLAY SOME MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH
ACROSS NC. THIS MORNING NASA SE MM5 KEEP CWA DRY THRU 12 HOURS. IN
CONTRAST...THE 15Z RUC PRINTOUT SOME RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. IN ANY CASE...EXPT SHOWERS TODAY TO DSPT QUICKLY SIMILIAR
TO YESTERDAY. LOOKING AT A 500MB COMPARISION OF THE MODELS THIS
MORNING...APPEARS TAHT THE RIDGE BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.
THERE IS ABIT OF DIFFERENT ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE VORT MAXS (PLACED
THIS MORNING ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO OUR WEST) ROTATING
EASTWARD. AFTER VIEWING SEVERAL PRODUCTS LIKE LIS...THETAE...RH
FEILDS...CAPES... ETC... MY IMPRESSION IS THAT THERE IS A CHC OF AN
EVENING SHOWER IN THE WEST TONIGHT OTHERWISE PC WITH PATCHY FOG.
FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM (MAY RISE HIGHS CLOSER TO
MOS GUIDANCE) WITH CHC OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
IN THE WEST. SUMMER RETURNS. HAVE A GUD EVENING.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
KK
FXUS71 KRLX 151450 va
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON
920 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS EAST WA AND NORTH IDAHO BETWEEN SYSTEMS. FIRST
SYSTEM IS THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER NW MT...RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TRAPPED OVER NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND SHOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE
OUT AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. EXPECT THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...HOWEVER LOOK AT 12Z OTX SOUNDING AND FORECAST
SOUNDING FROM THE RUC INDICATE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN A
DEVELOPING CAP BETWEEN 600-700MBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF
WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...GIVEN WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO OTHER SYSTEM DROPPING OFF THE BC COAST.
TEMPS IN THE BALL PARK SO WONT TOUCH THEM. AS FOR BC SYSTEM...WATER
VAPOR SHOWING SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DIG TO THE SW OVER THE OCEAN AND
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAVE
MOST OF OUR CWA UNSCATHED TODAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EAST SLOPE ZONES WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...
GEG 069/050/074 013
CQV 071/049/075 113
S86 068/048/071 123
COE 069/051/073 013
WWP 066/047/070 113
LWS 076/054/080 002
MOS 067/049/072
EAT 075/054/077 023
.GEG...NONE.
FXUS66 KSEW 151551 wa
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST FRI JUL 16 1999
SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FEED IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL
MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ONCE AGAIN IGNITE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ON SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED. A
SLIGHTLY WETTER MONSOON PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD NOT BE AS ACTIVE AS THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
DISCUSSION...IT'S NEAT TO SEE ALMOST EVERY RIVERBED IN TUCSON FULL
OF WATER, BUT THIS IS GETTING A LITTLE OLD. WE'VE BEEN VERY LUCKY
NOT TO HAVE FATALITIES AFTER THE DEGREE OF FLASH FLOODING WE'VE SEEN
THIS WEEK. DRY AIR DID WORK INTO THE MID LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ LAST EVENING, BUT NOW MOISTURE IS SPREADING BACK WESTWARD WITH
YUMA'S DEWPOINT UP 11F IN THE PAST HOUR. THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MADE
LITTLE DIFFERENCE LATE YESTERDAY, ANYWAY, AS VERY WET STORMS FIRED
OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. THAT PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY: WE NEED
THE LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT A LOT MORE BEFORE WE GET OUT OF THIS.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE'S ANOTHER MATCH TO THROW ON THE POWERKEG, THIS
TIME IN THE FORM OF A SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA
COAST. MODELS HAVE COMPLETELY MISSED THIS IMPORTANT FEATURE.
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO UT TOUCHED
OFF STORMS IN NW AZ OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN WAVE LOOKS MORE POTENT
AND IS INDUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
I'M ALSO NERVOUS ABOUT THE RUC'S IDEA OF HAVING NORTH AZ IN THE
RIGHT-REAR QUAD OF A 60KT UPPER LEVEL JETLET. WITH PRECIP WATERS
STILL IN THE 1.5+" RANGE AND A WARM-CORE VORT HEADING THIS WAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOMEONE'S GOING TO GET DUMPED ON AGAIN PER NCEP QPFERD
DISCUSSION. BEST THREAT IS S AND E OF TUCSON WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AND MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST, BUT SINCE TUCSON
IS SO SATURATED, WE'LL ADD HEIGHTENED WORDING HERE AS WELL. WE'LL
ALSO RAISE POPS 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.
WE'VE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS NOW THAT DRYING IS COMING. THIS TIME,
THOUGH, IT LOOKS A A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN AS THE VARIOUS VORT MAXES
LIFT OUT AND INDUCE STRONGER, DRIER FLOW FROM THE WEST. IN THAT
REGARD, PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS FINE. MAY TRY TO DOWNPLAY ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE WEAK 500MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS TO OUR
EAST AND RATCHETS UP ACTIVITY A BIT. PYTLAK
.TWC...NONE.
FXUS65 KPSR 160526 az
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
855 PM PDT THU JUL 15 1999
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST...EXTENDING
LOCALLY INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...WILL CLEAR EACH MORNING. IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY...WITH SEASONAL WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES IN ALL AREAS.
NO UPDATES PLANNED AS CURRENT PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
AN UPR TROUGH OVR THE PAC NW WL WEAKEN DURG THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WK
SWLY FLOW ALF REMAINING OVR SRN CA THRU THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS ALF AND
THICKNESSES LWR SLIGHTLY FRI...CHANGE LTL SAT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BUILD SUN. WK TO MDT ONSHR LOW LVL FLOW WL CONTINUE THRU SUN WITH
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR WK CSTL EDDY FORMATION EACH NIGHT. ALG THE
SRN CA CST...THE HEIGHT OF THE MARINE INVERSION BASE RANGED FM 1000
TO 1200 FT ALG THE CSTL PLAIN OF THE ORANGE AND LOS ANGELES CSTS PER HIGH
VERTICAL RESOLUTION ACARS SOUNDINGS FM LAX AND SNA...TO AROUND 1500
FT ALG THE SAN COUNTY CST PER THE 00Z NKX RAOB AND SFC REPORTS. THIS
IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING EXPECTED DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LTL CHANGE FOR SAT...
THEN A SLOW DECR IN MARINE LYR DEPTH FOR SUN. DEPTH OF MARINE LYR
APPEARS MARGINAL FOR STRATUS TO REACH THE INLAND EMPIRE...BUT
CURRENT "PATCHY" WORDING FOR EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY APPEARS
REASONABLE (I.E. ...LATE ARRIVAL...SHORT DURATION...LIMITED AREAL
EXTENT).
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVR THE ERN SBD MTNS THIS ARTERNOON...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
DESERT BETWEEN DAGGETT AND TWENTYNINE PALMS. BOTH THE K/F ETA AND
MAPS/RUC PICKED UP ON THIS DEVELOPMENT...SOMETHING THE OPERATIONAL
ETA WAS UNABLE TO DO. MDLS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING OF THE MID
LVLS FOR FRI WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DECR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.
AS THE UPR TROUGH ALG THE W CST WKNS DURG THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SOME MID LVL MSTR MAY BEGIN TO SEEP BACK INTO SRN CA FM
THE E FOR AT LEAST SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVR THE MTNS...IF NOT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ALL EXTENDED
MDLS KP SUFFICIENT...THOUGH WK...UPR TROUGHING ALG THE W CST NEXT
WEEK TO KP SUCH MSTR RETURN AND ASSOCD CONVECTION MINIMAL FOR SRN
CA.
SAN 0000
.SAN...NONE.
MARTIN
FXUS66 KSTO 160348 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ... CORRECTED WARNING SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
425 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999
MAIN FOCUS FOR TDY IS THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PCPN W/ THE SYSTEM
MOVG THRU THE CNTRL U.S. ATTM.
RGNL RADAR/SAT PICS SHOW THE LINE TO XTND FM SRN ONT TO BRD TO
FSD...ROUGHLY SPEAKING THT IS. SINCE IT DVLPD...PCPN HAS BEEN LINING
UP VRY WELL W/ THE H85 THTE AXIS. LATEST RUC IS CONSISTENT W/ THE
00Z ETA IN BRINGING THAT AXIS TO FAR WRN U.P. ARND 12Z.
HOWEVER...WHAT IS A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF HIGH THTE ATTM IS PROGGED
TO TO SORT OF SHEAR APART AS THE NRN PIECE OF ENERGY RACES THRU
CANADA TDY...PUSHING NRN PORTION OF FNT RIGHT ALG. A SECOND S/WV
...SEEN ON THE PROFILER DATA/EVE PLOTS IS HANGING BACK OVR ERN
NEBRASKA. ETA (AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE NGM) PICK UP ON THIS QUITE
NICELY. NGM FADES IT OUT SOMEWHAT...BUT ETA HOLDS ONTO IT AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TWD THE GREAT LAKES RGN.
INITIALLY PREFERED THE ETA SOLN FOR IT/S CONSISTENCY OVR TIME...BUT
THE NGM SHOWS STRONG FEATURES AS WELL (INCLUDING FVRBL JET DYNAMICS).
UNSETTLED WX ACRS THE FA TDY AND TNT WL POSE A PROBLEM ACRS THE
SOUTHWEST. PW VALUE ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY HIGH PHPS NEARLY AS HIGH
AS TWO INCHES...AND POSSIBILTIY OF TRAINING ECHOS EXISTS.
THUS...CONSIDERING THE PCPN THAT FELL ERLIER THIS WEEK OVR DICKINSON
...IRON AND THE LOW FFG VALUES FM DICKINSON TO MENOMINEE WL GO W/ A
FFA FOR THESE THREE COUNTIES AND STRESS THE SRN PORTIONS. FURTHER
EAST...CHCS OF PCPN BTR TNT. PER COORD W/ APX WL BUMP POPS IN ERN
CNTYS INTO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY.
ONCE THE FNT PASSES...DRIER...COLR AIR WL QCKLY ARRIVE. OTHR THAN A
LINGERING MORG SHRW IN THE FAR EAST LUKG FOR A RAINFREE...SUNNIER
DAY.
STEAMY CONDITIONS TO CONT THRU TDY W/ DWPTS GNRLY FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S. CRNTLY FCST HIGHS ARE GNRLY FINE. LOWS FOR TNT NEED A
BOOST IN THE ERN SXNS. TEMPS TMRW SHD SHOW A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT
FROM WEST TO EAST. H85 TEMPS SHOW A STG GRADIENT ACRS THE FA BY LATE
IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HELPING COLR TEMPS ALONG WL BE WNDS OFF LAKE
SUPER.
RMDR OF FCST UNCHANGED. NEW ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE FLOPPED BACK
SLIGHTLY W/ IT/S SUNDAY SOLN FROM YESTERDAY... BUT 72 HR AVN DOES
SHOW AN AREA OF Q-VEC CONVERGENCE.
.MQT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR MIZ010>012.
DESROSIERS
FXUS63 KDTX 160816 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999
ONLY QUESTION ON UPDATE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA. TREND OF LATEST RUC MODEL IS TO COOL LOW LEVELS
SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP IN
CENTRAL...HAVE REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AREA. BEST
GRADIENT ALONG WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT IS TO NORTHWEST OF
AREA...HAVE REDUCED WINDS IN WISCONSIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK GOOD FOR AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION WILL
NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY.
.MSP...NONE
SCOTT
mn
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
915 PM MDT THU JUL 15 1999
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT FOR SOME DRYING ALOFT.
QUITE COOL AIR...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRYING VERY LITTLE ACCORDING TO
00Z RUC. PLUS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE. OTHERWISE THERE
COULD BE SOME FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS IF THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WINDS
BECOME CALM. NEXT STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTING A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE INTO MONTANA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE NGM AND ETA QPF...WHICH ARE NORMALLY
OVERDONE...VASCILATE ON PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL UPDATE
ZONES AND STATE FORECASTS TO DROP ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MAYBE
DROP A FEW FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT. OARD
GTF 0112 HLN 0013 HVR 1112
FXUS65 KGGW 160301 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED MORE THAN
15 MI OFFSHORE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT 6 HRS. MODIFIED SOUNDING
NUMBERS...LI OF -7...CAPE 3000 J/KG. GIVEN RATHER ACTIVE AREA OF
CONVECTION OFFSHORE LEADS ME TO INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY. IN
ADDITION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA
OVER N FL. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL AT THIS TIME
AND WEAKENS IT BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MESO-ETA KEEPS THIS FEATURE
PRESENT THROUGH 00Z. IN ANY CASE...WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE...AND E
COAST SEA BREEZE AND SOUNDING PARAMETERS...PREFER 10 PERCENT POP
INCREASE ACROSS FL CWA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
ARS
FXUS62 KTAE 161351 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHOWERS
ALONG THIS LINE AND WITH UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE...BOTH OF WHICH
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. MSAS STILL SHOWING LI'S TO -5 AHEAD OF FRONT...
AND BOTH RUC AND ETA INDICATING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE THERE. HOWEVER BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN CWA. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM IOWA VORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO
PASS TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
FOR ONCE.
FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUNSHINE TO
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...VORT SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HERE.
PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS STILL LOOKING GOOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG NORTH SHORE TO SUW.
.DLH...NONE.
TAP
FXUS63 KMPX 161601 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999
RAINFALL IN NWRN IA ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVG NEDDY EDDY IN FAR
WESTERN IA. SLOW MOVING FRONT FROM WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
NWRN IA. FRONT IS ALMOST PARALLEL TO UPPER WINDS IN NRN TIER OF
STATES...BUT STILL SOME 2-3 MB RISES IN 3 HOURS OVER THE DKTS. THUS
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ALONG SLOWLY. AS OF 16Z IT WAS ALMOST
UPON MSP. LATES RUC TAKES FRONT THROUGH EAU AND AEL LATE AFTERNOON.
SEEMS REASONABLE. LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE ALONG FNT...
THEN HEAVIER RAIN IN NWRN IA.
HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN FOR LATER TODAY IN OUR SERN AREA...FROM AEL
TO EAU...AND AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH THE 3 INCH AMOUNTS TYPICAL OF THE
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. FORTUNATELY 12Z UPPER AIR ANLYS SHOWS 40 KNOTS
AT 25H FROM LBF TO MSP...WITH WEAKER SPEEDS FARTHER SE WHERE THE
BEST DIFFLUENCE IS. SHORT WAVE IN SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EWD AND
HELP DRAG FASTER FLO A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS SOME 2 OR 3
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM AEL TO EAU BUT WL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO PROFILERS AND VAD WIND PROFILES FOR SIGNS THE UPPER
WINDS MIGHT BE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED.
COULD ALSO BE A COUPLE ISOLATED PULSE SVR STORMS AS WELL.
.MSP...NONE
KRAUSE
FXUS63 KDLH 160851 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999
...FORECAST PROBLEMS INVOLVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP CHANCES AND THEREFORE
TEMPS...
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW IN MN SWWD INTO
NERN CO TO S OF THEDFORD TO NEAR BFF...ALTHO NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAKE IT A TRICK TO FIND. CONVECTION ONGOING AT THIS TIME
ACROSS THE CWA SO WILL MAKE THIS BRIEF. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN HOOKER AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES ATTM WHICH SHOULD BE
THE TREND BASED ON 06Z RUC PROGS AT 850 MB.
PICKING A MODEL OF CHOICE IS DIFFICULT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE TIME OF THE 00Z RUNS. ETA HAS
DONE A DECENT JOB IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE ETA FOR LOW LEVEL RESOLUTION. AT
06Z...THE NGM SFC PATTERN WAS THE CLOSEST...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
HIGH IN MT WAS UNDERDONE. AVN LOOKED BETTER FOR THAT. FOR UPPER
FEATURES...ALL ARE NOT DOING TOO BAD WITH FILLING UPPER LOW IN SC
CANADA...BUT ARE LIKELY TOO FAR N WITH NEXT SYSTEM COMING INTO OREGON
AT 06Z.
700-500 MB Q VECTOR PROGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...BUT NERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL MAKE IT HARD TO CLEAR
OUT CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP THRU THE MORNING ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SFC. FOLLOWING RUC/MESOETA FOR THE 1ST PERIOD WOULD HAVE CLOUDS AROUND
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CLEARING IN THE NWRN CWA BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN WORKING SEWD ITO THE EVENING. SRN PART OF CWA WILL LIKELY GO
SCT-BKN FOR A TIME BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVE...BUT AS WINDS TURN E/SE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE MESOETA PROGS A SHORT WAVE TO TOP THE FLAT RIDGE INTO
NRN NEBR BY 12Z SAT. SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN CENTRAL KS BUT
WINDS TO THE N WILL HAVE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE FAR WRN PART OF THE STATE. SO WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT POPS FOR TONIGHT THERE AND NC FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCT/WDLY WORDING WILL LIKELY BE NEED MOST AREAS THIS MORNIG TO DEAL
WITH ONGOING STUFF.
FOR SAT...DONT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE. BEST
FORCING WILL BE IN THE W/NRN ZONES WHERE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMBINES
WITH S/SERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. HOWEVER...WITH SOME REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
MOVING BACK N AND WINDS INCREASING FROM THE S...AND HIGH PWS...WILL
INCLUDE POPS ALL AREAS FOR LATE AFTERNOON WHICH GOES ALONG WITH
GUIDANCE.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HARD TO BEAT LATELY AND WILL GO ALONG WITH IT FOR THE
MOST PART FOR THIS CAST.
.LBF...NONE.
JWS
FXUS63 KGID 160809 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999
LATEST MSAS SHOWING SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH SUPPORTING CONTINUED
LIGHT NE FLOW OVER ALL OF CWA. LITTLE EVIDENCE OF OLD BNDRY EXCEPT
PERHAPS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WELL OFF SHORE ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION.
WV IMAGERY IMPLYING COMPLEX MID LVL FLOW PATTERN CNTRL APPLCNS LOWER
OH VLY. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING CLEARLY DEFINED SHRTWV RIDGE AND ASSOCD
MSTR PLUME LIFTING OVER CWA. ISOLATED SHWRS/CNVTN INLAND WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OFF COAST. GSO/MHX MORNING SOUNDINGS MUCH DRYER
WHILE CHS STILL SOUPED UP. UNFORTUNATELY CWA IN AMS TRANSITION ZONE.
MODELS GENERALLY NOT MUCH HELP IN DEFINING FOCUS MECHANISM THUS
STILL THINK LOW POPS BEST. HOWEVER..HAVE NOTED NEW RUC DOES DEPICT
WEAK VORT LOBE/MAX ACROSS SC NEXT 12HRS. WILL CONTINUE SUGG OF
BETTER PCPN CHANCES AND CLD COVER FOR SC ZONE AND TRANSITION TO
SLGTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR NC ZONES.
CWF:MAY SPLIT UP ZONES BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHWR/CNVTV
ACTIVITY. OTRWS LOOKS OKAY.
.ILM...NONE.
RWA
FXUS62 KMHX 161346 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
958 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999
...AFTERNOON FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS/-SHRA IN NORTH...
LINE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING THRU NRN RRV INTO NW MN ATTM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TD DISCONTINUITY WITH 40S BEHIND IT AND 60S AHEAD.
STILL DEALING WITH CLOUD IN EASTERN CWA BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT
WITH W/SW FLO ALOFT SLOWING ITS PROGRESS. MSAS SHOWING RUSH OF CAA
APPROACHING RRV WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO LOWER 50S IN NW CWA.
WV LOOP SHOWS U/L LO SPINNING JUST EAST OF SASK/MB BORDER...QUITE
CLOSE TO 12Z RUC FCSTD POSITION FOR 15Z. SFC ANLYSIS YIELDS E/W
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF YBR AT 13Z. MOISTURE WITH SCT
-SHRA JUST BEHIND FRONT IN SASK/MB SINKING SLOWLY SE. TRACK OF U/L
SKIMS IT ACROSS INTL BORDER IN QUICK W FLO AND THEN DIPS IT BIT SE
THRU NW MN BY 21Z-00Z. AMPLE 925-850MB MOIST DROPPING SE SHOULD
CLOUD OVER NRN CWA THRU AM HOURS EVEN THO MAIN SFC FRONT SHOULD NOT
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS SWRD THRU CWA. TAIL OF PVA SWEEPING ACROSS
NRN CWA ALSO IN AFTN WITH LI/S 0 TO +2 EXTREME NORTH SO ISOLD -SHRA
STILL POSSIBLE IN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. THINK SUBSIDENCE FROM
APPROACHING HI PRES WILL SPREAD ACROSS ND LATER IN AFTN AND SHIFT
BETTER CHANCE INTO NW MN WHERE MODEL INDICATES SOME WEAK UVM WITH
HELP FROM EXITING U/L JET. FURTHER SOUTH APPEARS LACK OF PUSH OF
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND NVA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUN AND MINIMAL
SHRA CHANCE.
WILL UPDATE NRN ZONES TO READ BCMNG MCLDY AS PER SAT TRENDS AND
NUDGE FEW TEMPS DOWNWARD ALSO IN NORTH. WILL LEAVE SHRA CHANCE IN
WHERE CURRENT ZONES INDICATE. NO CHANGE TO WINDS AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED.
UPDATE OUT BY 1015 AM.
.FGF...NONE.
SOROKA
FXUS63 KFGF 160812 nd
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. LATEST RUC
KEEPS MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF FA...AND SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
KS IS PROGGED TO MOVE LITTLE. 12Z RAOBS INDICATE 40KT H85 JET TO THE
WEST OF FA WHICH HAS LIKELY AIDED THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NC OK
ANS SRN KS THIS MORNING. LOW POPS OVER ALL OF FA LOOK GOOD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES OVER FAR NW AR
ZONES. NO CHANGES TO LATER PDS.
UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.
FCSTID = 23
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KOUN 160919 ok
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
TEMPERATURES
WILL THERE BE CONVECTION?
STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS ARE DIMINISHING AND MOVING MORE EAST.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WESTERN EDGES OF FORECAST AREA IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
VORT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. 03Z RUC ONLY MODEL TO HINT AT
THIS DEVELOPMENT...AS VORT MOVES TO THE NORTH SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING.
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY STILL REMAINS WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS WILL
MAKE INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT H700 AND H500 MOISTURE
PLUME WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF COUNTIES
ALONG KANSAS BORDER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN FOR THIS ARE...BUT JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOWS...STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER
FAN FOR HIGHS.
AS FRONT WASHES OUT...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH EXTENDED PERIODS.
FCSTID = 33
TUL 93 74 94 73 / 20 20 20 10
FSM 92 74 93 71 / 10 10 20 10
MLC 91 74 93 74 / 10 10 20 10
BVO 92 73 93 72 / 20 20 20 10
FYV 89 69 90 68 / 20 10 20 10
BYV 89 69 90 68 / 20 10 20 10
MIO 91 70 91 69 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 93 74 94 73 / 10 10 20 10
F10 92 74 93 74 / 10 10 20 10
HHW 94 72 96 72 / 10 10 20 10
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: NONE
NGM CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FXUS64 KTSA 160303 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999
SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. MODIFIED MORNING RAOBS SHOW CAPE OF AROUND 2200
J/KG AT FFC...AND AROUND 1700 J/KG AT GSO WHERE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
LIMITING CAPE TO A GREATER EXTENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH FORCING TO ACT UPON THIS INSTABILITY. OF MINOR CONCERN IS POOL
OF COOLER AIR AT 500 MB (TEMPS AROUND MINUS 10 C) TO OUR IMMEDIATE
NW...BUT MODELS KEEP THIS COOL POOL OUT OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. 12Z RUC
AND 03Z ETA SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION ANYWAY. FORTUNATELY...THE CURRENT SET OF ZONES HAS THIS
COVERED. ONE MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO SPLIT OUT THE NORTHERN FOOTHILL
ZONES TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. TEMPS LOOK FINE AND ONLY CHANGES MIGHT BE MINOR TWEAKS.
.GSP...NONE.
MOORE
FXUS62 KCHS 161401 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999
PATTERN BECOMNG A BIT MORE NORMAL NOW AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVR THE AREA.
88-D SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEV ALONG THE CSRA ALONG AN OLD CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. RUC INDICATED WEAK H5 VORT ASSOC WITH FLARE UP AND ANOTHER
VORT OVR THE PANHANDLE OF FL MOVING N. WV IMAGRY SHOWS A LOT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE OVR THE AREA. T SECTS OF ETA MOISTURE CONVG SHOW MAX OCCURING
AROUND 12Z AROUND H9 WITH DIV FROM H7 TO SFC THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
DONT REALLY EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONV DEV OVR NRN PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE. WILL GO WITH A LITTLE HIGHER
POPS OVR CSRA-AGS WITH CONV BNDRY REMAINING S OF THE AREA AND WEAK VORT
DRIFTING N THROUGH FL/SRN GA. BELIEVE NGM IS TOO WET WITH CONV
BOUNDARY...AS ETA TRIES TO DISSIPATE IT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
S/W OVR MS ATTM BUT START TO DIFFER AS NGM SENDS PIECE OF ENERGY THRU
THE SRN APPS ON SAT. BELIEVE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT STNRY THRU THE
PD WITH EMBEDED WEAKNESSES ROT ARND IT. COULD BE ENUF TO KICK OFF TSRA
OVR THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA.
PRELIM CCF
CAE 89/70/90/70 2222
AGS 88/69/91/68 4342
.CAE...NONE.
BARLOW
FXUS62 KGSP 160635 COR sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 16 1999
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH
COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS
SHOWS PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB THIS MORNING WITH KRAP AT
+10C AND KGGW AT +1C. A DIFFERENT STORY AT 700MB WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECK
OF ALTOCUMULUS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
12Z RUC INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. THE RUC
SLOWLY DISSIPATES CLOUDS AND MOVES THE EAST DURING THE DAY...AND
BRINGS IN SOME WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...AND UPDATE WILL MAINLY BE TO REMOVE
MORNING SHOWERS.
.UNR...NONE.
KRC
FXUS63 KABR 160917 COR sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGIONAL WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90. MODIFIED RNK 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT WE COULD
BREAK OUR CAP AROUND 2 DEGREES WITH AN LI 0F MINUS 5. SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVEREGENCE COMBINED WITH ORGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD CREATED A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MEAN WIND FLOW SUGGEST SLOW
MOVERS WITH RAIN AROUND AN INCH PER RAOBS PCP WATER VALUES. THIS
MORNINGS RUC AND MM5 SE RUNS ALSO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF A CHC OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EARLIER RUNS OF ETA/NGM ALSO INDICATED
THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE WEST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FOR AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE. HAVE A GUD AFTERNOON.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
KK
FXUS61 KAKQ 161414 va
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
249 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 1999
TNGT/SAT: 19Z/16 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
KGCK-KSPD-KCOS-KCAG WITH "TRUE" COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH SOUTHERN WY INTO ID. KPUB 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING
ABOUT 8000 KT DEEP NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW. TWO MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT
WILL BE MINOR SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO AND
UPSLOPE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. LATEST RUC/ETA HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING WESTERN CO
SHORTWAVE BY TAKING IT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. CURRENT MANUAL
PROJECTION TAKE IT THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CO TONIGHT. LATEST
REGIONAL 88D/LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGERY SHOWED WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BREAKING OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GREATEST COVERAGE...SO FAR...IS IN UPPER
HUERFANO AND UPPER PURGATOIRE RIVER BASINS(74/75). MOISTURE
CERTAINLY NOT A PROBLEM. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MID 50S/MID 60S ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND EVENING UPSLOPE EASTERLY...
PLAN TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING FOR SANGRE DE CRISTO/WET MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING ZONES 74/75 TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED/
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE PLAINS. WILL NOT CARRY A "TIMER" ON
PRECIPITATION WORDING FROM SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS.
SHRA/TSRA MAY HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH EXPECTED SHORTWAVE...
ALBEIT WEAK...MIGRATING THROUGH CWA. IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...
UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY...AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OF
DIURNAL CHARACTERISTICS. WOULDN'T BE SUPRISED TO SEE STRATUS
POSSIBLY FORM IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FOG...SO WILL NOT MENTION. LOWER TROP FLOW EXPECTED TO
GO MORE SOUTHERLY ON SAT WITH PLENTY OF RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. PLAN TO MAINTAIN LOW
"CHANCE" POPS AND WORDING IN CURRENT ZFP. DAY 2 QPF HAS .25-.50"
PRECIPITATION DRAWN GENERALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SAT NGT/SUN: 500MB HEIGHT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EJECT ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM DEEPENING
LONGWAVE ALONG WEST COAST. SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LESS AND
LESS WITH THE QUALITY OF DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A DIURNAL WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ON SUN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE BACK INTO SUMMERTIME READINGS.
EXTENDED(MON-WED): LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
WEST COAST ON MON WITH ANTICYCLONE TAKING SHAPE IN THE HEARTLAND OF
U.S. STILL SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GENERATE MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINS. PLAN TO
LEAVE GENERIC "CHANCE" WORDING IN FOR MON. MRF CONTINUES TO HAVE
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ON BUILDING LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE INTO
CO/KS ON TUE-WED. 700MB TEMPERATURES STILL PROGD TO BE +16-20 C.
MRF IN PAST CASE SEEM TO BE OVERDONE ON THE 700-300MB MEAN RH AND
MAY BE CONTINUING THIS PRACTICE. BELOW 500MB...MEAN RH EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 10-20%. FEEL THREAT IS SO LOW ITS TOO EARLY TO MENTION AND
WILL WAIT UNTIL TUE-WED FORECAST GETS INTO THE SHORT RANGE TO FINE
TUNE. STILL COULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA IN MOUNTAINS...BUT TOO
FAR TO MENTION. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TUE-WED SHOULD BE SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND A RETURN TO NEAR 100 DEG READINGS IN FAVORED AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS.
.PUB...NONE.
METZE
FXUS65 KGJT 161831 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
215 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999
BROAD RIDGE OVER ERN AND SRN U.S. IN PLACE ALOFT WHILE ACTIVE JET
STREAM REMAINS OVER THE NRN U.S. WVAPOR SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH MSTR
OVER LOWER OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS...AND ALSO SEEN ON
H7 ANALYSIS. IN SHORT TERM...WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
PTNS OF THE FA. LAPS AND RUC SOUNDING FCSTS SHOW NO CAP THIS AFTN
WITH K-INDICES OVER 20...CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. ALSO SEEN IS A WEAK
H7 SHEAR ZONE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AS MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABOVE 1 MILE MOST OF THE NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF THE MODELS...ETA AND NGM ON SAME TRACK...WITH THE AVN
IN DISAGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH SPEED OF WEEKEND SYSTEM. WILL GO
WITH THE ETA/NGM. SATURDAY SHOULD BE HUMID BUT DRY FOR THE MOST
PART. MID-LVL DRYING REFLECTED IN LOWERING K-INDICES AND NIL UPPER
SUPPORT WILL CAP US OFF AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MAY BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT DRIFT SOUTH BY AFTERNOON
THUS WE WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE. WILL
INTRODUCE A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST AREAS. H8/H3 THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST WHAT CONVECTION THAT
MAY BE ASSOC WITH FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAY MIGHT START TO DRIFT
SE...WHILE BEING AIDED BY S/WV FCST TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. AS FRONT GETS SLIGHTLY CLOSER ON SUNDAY...HIGHER
MSTR CONTENT IN GREATER DEPTH EXPECTED WHILE REMAINING RATHER
UNSTABLE. WILL INTRODUCE LOW POP FOR MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. IN THE
EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA AND TREND WORDING
TOWARD AFTERNOON. MRF MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR...BUT DO
EXPECT UPPER HIGH TO RETREAT ON WESTWARD...WITH LAYER MEAN RH
REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH. ALSO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP INVOF
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWFA.
.PAH...NONE.
NOLES
FXUS63 KJKL 161855 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1115 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO IA. A STRENGTHENING 300MB
JET STREAK WILL PUSH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE LOW ALONG
QUICKLY...BUT WAVE THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE IT
TO BE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL MAKE FOR A STICKY
AND UNSTABLE DAY TODAY. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GRB HAD OVER 2000
J/KG CAPE. 03Z MESOETA BRINGS CAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG INTO MENOMINEE
COUNTY BY 00Z SATURDAY. 12Z RUC BRING BOUNDARY LAYER LIS APPROACHING
-5C TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BY 00Z.
GREATEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WONT REACH THE AREA
UNTIL TONIGHT. BUT WITH DECENT HEATING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BIG
CONCERN IS FOR RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT WERE DRENCHED EARLIER IN
THE WEEK IS BELOW AN INCH... 0.8" FOR IRON AND 0.9" FOR DICKINSON
AND MENOMINEE.
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ARE NECESSARY...ALSO WITH CLOUD COVER.
WIND FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
.MQT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR MIZ010>012.
JHB
FXUS63 KDTX 161453 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 1999
WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ON VISIBLE STLY MOVING NE THROUGH NW IA AND PICKED
UP WELL BY 12Z RUC. ALTHOUGH CAA TAKING PLACE IN CWA...PVA
CONTRIBUTIONS AND LO LVL CONVERGENGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING
TSTMS WITH HVY RAIN TO PARTS OF NW IA THIS MRNG WHICH WAS HANDLED
WELL THROUGH A 920 AM NOWCAST. WL UPDATE ZONES BEFORE NOON TO WIND
DOWN MRNG PCPN ALONG WITH PSBL TWEAKS IN TEMPS AND WNDS. ALTHOUGH HI
PRES MOVNG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...PRES GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE
STRONG TDY WITH RUC INDICATING 20KT WNDS AROUND 18Z THEN DECREASING
LATER IN THE AFTN. DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO
STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE TDY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN.
.FSD...NONE
BR
FXUS63 KUNR 161446 sd