Comparison with Other Projections
Only Global Insights, Inc. (GII) produces a comprehensive energy projection
with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2007. Other organizations, however,
address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection
from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international
oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and
coal, are compared here with the AEO2007 projections.
Economic Growth
In the AEO2007 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based
on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 2.9 percent per year from 2005 to 2030.
The AEO2007 projections for economic growth are based on the August short-term
projection of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect
EIA’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.
Projections of the average annual GDP growth rate for the United States
from 2005 through 2010 range from 2.9 percent to 3.2 percent (Table 18).
The AEO2007 reference case projects annual growth of 3.0 percent over the
period, matching the projection made by the Social Security Administration
(SSA) and GII, but it is slightly lower than the 3.2-percent real GDP growth
projected by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the CBO, and Energy
Ventures Analysis, Inc. (EVA). The consensus Blue Chip projection is for
3.0-percent average annual growth from 2005 to 2010. Three other organizations—
Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland (INFORUM), the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the International Energy Agency (IEA)—
project somewhat lower annual growth of 2.9 percent over the same period.
The IEA projection of 2.9-percent average annual growth covers the period
from 2004 through 2015.
Over the period from 2010 to 2015, the uncertainty in the projected rate
of GDP growth is greater, with projections ranging from 2.2 to 3.0 percent
per year (excluding the AEO2007 alternative cases); however, all but one
projection falls in the range of 2.7 to 3.0 percent—SSA with projected
average growth of 2.2 percent per year. The AEO2007 reference case projection
of 2.8 percent average annual economic growth from 2010 to 2015 is in the
middle of the range, excluding the SSA projection. The Blue Chip consensus
projection is 3.0 percent, and both BLS and the IEA project 2.9 percent,
from 2010 to 2015. Projections slightly below the AEO2007 reference case,
at 2.7 percent, include GII, CBO, INFORUM, and EVA.
There are few public or private projections of GDP growth rates for the
United States that extend to 2030. The AEO2007 reference case projection
reflects a slowing of the GDP growth rate after 2020, consistent with an
expected slowing of population growth.
World Oil Prices
Comparisons of the AEO2007 projections with other oil price projections
are shown in Table 19. The world oil prices in the AEO2007 reference case
generally are higher than other world oil price projections available for
comparison. Three of the six publicly available long-term projections—Deutsche
Bank AG (DB), Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc. (SEER), and
EVA—anticipate that world oil prices will decline faster than in the AEO2007 reference case in the near term, with their projections for 2010 falling
below that in the AEO2007 low price case. All the projections—except for
the price projection from EVA, which was not available for comparison in
last year’s outlook—have raised their price expectations for 2010 and in
the longer term relative to last year’s releases.
The world oil price measures are, by and large, comparable across projections.
For AEO2007, EIA reports the price of imported low-sulfur, light crude
oil, approximately the same as the WTI prices that are widely cited as
a proxy for world oil prices in the trade press. The only series that does
not report projections in WTI terms is the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2006,
where prices are expressed as the IEA crude oil import price.
Recent variability in crude oil prices demonstrates the uncertainty inherent
in the projections. The AEO2007 reference case and DB define the range
of projected prices among the comparative series throughout the projection
period. The range among the projections is $18 per barrel in 2010 (from
a low price of $39.66 per barrel to a high of $57.47 per barrel), declining
to $10 per barrel in 2015 and then widening to $19 per barrel in 2030 (from
a low of $40.16 per barrel to a high of $59.12 per barrel).
Excluding the AEO2007 high and low price cases, there are four distinct
views proffered by the comparative series beginning in 2010: (1) prices
moderate by 2015 before beginning a steady increase; (2) prices do not
moderate over the mid-term but increase toward the end of the projection;
(3) prices decline throughout the projection; and (4) prices remain relatively
flat throughout. In the AEO2007 reference case, prices decline from about
$57 per barrel in 2010 to $50 per barrel in 2015 and rise steadily to $59
per barrel in 2030 (all prices expressed in real 2005 dollars). IEA projects
a similar trend. In the EVA projection, prices remain flat until after
2015, then begin to rise. Although GII and Energy and Environmental Analysis,
Inc. (EEA) anticipate a (rather sharper) decline in prices over the 2010
to 2015 period compared to the AEO2007 reference case, both expect the
decline to continue, albeit slowly, through the end of their respective
projection periods. Finally, DB and SEER expect oil prices to remain relatively
flat or increase slightly from 2010 to 2030.
Total Energy Consumption
The AEO2007 reference case projects higher growth in end-use sector consumption
of petroleum, natural gas, and coal than occurred from 1980 to 2005 but
lower growth in electricity consumption (Table 20). Much of the projected
growth in petroleum consumption is driven by increased demand in the transportation
sector, with continued growth in personal travel and freight transport
projected to result from demographic trends and economic expansion. Natural
gas consumption is expected to increase in the residential, commercial,
and industrial sectors, despite relatively high prices. Natural gas is
cleaner than other fuels, does not require on-site storage, and has tended
to be priced competitively with oil for heating. Coal consumption as a
boiler fuel in the commercial and industrial sectors is expected to decline
slightly, with potential use in new boilers limited by environmental restrictions;
however, the projections for industrial coal include its use in CTL plants,
a technology that is expected to become competitive at the level of oil
prices assumed in the AEO2007 reference case.
While strong growth in electricity use is projected to continue in the AEO2007 reference case, the pace slows from historical rates. Some rapidly
growing applications, such as air conditioning and computers, slow as penetration
approaches saturation levels. Electrical efficiency also continues to improve,
due in large part to efficiency standards, and the impacts tend to accumulate
with the gradual turnover of appliance stocks.
The AEO2007 reference case generally includes greater growth in primary
energy consumption through 2030 than is shown in the outlook from GII. GII
projects little growth in end-use natural gas consumption, whereas the AEO2007 reference case projects continued growth in the industrial and
buildings sectors. Some of the difference can be attributed to the higher
natural gas price assumptions in the GII projection. End-use natural gas
prices in the AEO2007 reference case decline rapidly from 2006 to 2013
before resuming a slow upward trend. In contrast, GII projects a more moderate
decline in natural gas prices from 2005 to 2015, with little further change
by 2025. GII projects an industrial natural gas price of $7.91 per thousand
cubic feet in 2025, compared with $6.40 per thousand cubic feet in the AEO2007 reference case (2005 dollars). GII’s projected growth rates for
petroleum and electricity consumption are similar to those in the AEO2007 reference case. Differences between the AEO2007 reference case and the
GII projections for end-use coal consumption result from a projected increase
in coal use for CTL in the AEO2007 reference case.
Electricity
The AEO2007 projections of retail electricity prices are based on average
costs for electricity. The projections include supply regions that still
are regulated, regions that are competitive and where marginal rather than
average prices are assumed, and regions with a mix of regulated and competitive
markets where average and marginal prices are weighted by the amount of
load that serves regulated and competitive markets. As of 2005, 4 of the
13 electricity market regions had fully competitive retail markets in operation,
7 regions had mixed competitive and regulated retail markets, and 2 regions
had fully regulated markets. The AEO2007 cases assume that no additional
retail markets will be restructured and that partial restructuring (in
wholesale markets) will lead to increased competition in the electric power
industry. Competition is assumed to lower operating and maintenance costs
and to cause the retirement of uneconomical generating units. The AEO2007 electricity projections assume continuation of current laws and regulations.
Other projections may reflect explicit assessments of the nature and likelihood
of policy developments over the next 25 years.
Comparisons of the AEO2007 projections and those from other organizations
are shown in Table 21. The projections for electricity sales in 2015 range
from a low of 4,133 billion kilowatthours in the AEO2007 low economic growth
case to a high of 4,433 billion kilowatthours in the EVA projection. EVA
projects higher sales in the commercial and residential sectors, with somewhat
less growth in industrial sales, than are projected by the AEO2007 reference
case, GII, and EEA. The projections for total electricity sales in 2030
range from 4,682 billion kilowatthours (AEO2007 low economic growth case)
to 5,654 billion kilowatthours (AEO2007 high economic growth case). The
annual rate of demand growth ranges from 1.0 percent (AEO2007 low economic
growth case) to 1.8 percent (AEO2007 high economic growth case). GII projects
lower growth in the commercial sector and higher growth in the industrial
and, to a lesser extent, residential sectors in 2030 than is projected
in the AEO2007 reference case.
The AEO2007 reference case shows a decline in real electricity prices early
in the projection period and then rising prices at the end of the period
because of increases in the cost of fuels used for generation and increases
in capital expenditures for construction of new capacity. The rising fossil
fuel prices and increased capital outlays in the AEO2007 reference case
lead to an increase in average electricity prices, from 7.7 cents per kilowatthour
in 2015 to 8.1 cents per kilowatthour in 2030. GII projects increases in
prices initially and then a slight decline at the end of the period.
Projections of total electricity generation in 2015 are similar for the AEO2007 reference case, EVA, and EEA. In contrast, the projection by GII
is lower than the others because of lower projected growth in electricity
sales. The GII projection of total electricity generation in 2015 is similar
to that in the AEO2007 low economic growth case. Although GII projects
a lower level of total electricity generation in 2030 than is projected
in the AEO2007 reference and high economic growth cases, its projection
for renewable generation in 2030 is considerably higher than the AEO2007 reference case projection.
The need for new generating capacity is driven by growth in electricity
sales and the need to replace existing units that are no longer economical
to operate. Consistent with its projection of higher growth in electricity
sales, EVA projects greater growth in requirements for new fossil-fuel-fired
generating plants as well as nuclear plants in 2015 compared with the AEO2007 reference case and GII. Except for nuclear plants, the EVA projections
for generating capacity are similar to EEA’s projections for 2015. As noted
above, the GII projections for renewable capacity in 2030 are higher than
those in the AEO2007 reference and high and low economic growth cases.
The projections for nuclear capacity additions from 2005 to 2030 as a result
of the incentives in EPACT2005 range from 28 gigawatts in the AEO2007 high
economic growth case to 6 gigawatts in the AEO2007 low economic growth
case. The AEO2007 cases assume that 2.6 gigawatts of nuclear capacity will
be retired by 2030 because their operating licenses will have expired.
Environmental regulations have an important influence on the technology
choices made for electricity generation. EVA assumes that legislation similar
to the Clear Skies Act (including new restrictions on SO2, NOx, and mercury
emissions) will be in effect by 2010. EVA also includes a tax of $6 per
ton on CO2 emissions beginning in 2013. The combination of stronger environmental
restrictions, a tax on CO2 emissions, and aggregate State-level RPS program
requirements leads to greater growth in nonhydroelectric renewable generation
in the EVA projection than in the other projections in 2015. The AEO2007 cases reflect EPA’s recently enacted CAIR and CAMR regulations. Because AEO2007 generally includes only current laws and regulations, it does not
assume any policies to address CO2 emissions. As noted above, restrictions
on CO2 emissions could change the mix of technologies used to generate
electricity.
Natural Gas
In the AEO2007 reference case, natural gas consumption is projected to
grow steadily through 2020 and then level off as higher projected natural
gas prices cause natural gas to lose market share to coal for electricity
generation. With the exception of GII, this is a major difference between
the AEO2007 reference and high price cases and the other projections (Table
22), which show natural gas consumption generally increasing throughout
the projection period, both overall and for electricity generation. The
lowest projected overall growth is in the GII projection, with 2030 consumption
that is 2.4 trillion cubic feet less than in the AEO2007 reference case.
The DB, SEER, and Altos projections expect natural gas consumption in 2030
to exceed the AEO2007 reference case projection by 1.1, 4.1, and 4.8 trillion
cubic feet, respectively; the two latter projections even exceed the AEO2007 low price case projection. Although GII projects less total natural gas
consumption than does the AEO2007 reference case, the GII projection for
consumption by electricity generators exceeds that in the AEO2007 reference
case, further highlighting a fundamental difference between the AEO2007 reference case and the other projections.
Natural gas consumption by electricity generators grows from 2005 to 2015
in all the projections. With the exception of the AEO2007 reference and
high price cases, the projected growth continues through 2025. DB is the
only projection with less growth in natural gas consumption by electricity
generators than the AEO2007 reference case from 2005 to 2015. Natural gas
consumption in the DB projection in 2015 is 6 percent below the AEO2007 reference case value, and the other projections are between 2 percent (GII)
and 32 percent (Altos) above the AEO2007 reference case. In 2025, natural
gas consumption by electricity generators in all the other projections
exceeds that in the AEO2007 reference case by 6 percent (DB) to 69 percent
(Altos). In 2030, consumption in the other projections is 20 percent (DB)
to 109 percent (Altos) higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. Only
the GII and DB projections for natural gas consumption by electricity generators
are consistently lower than those in the AEO2007 low price case.
All the projections show steady growth in natural gas consumption in the
combined residential and commercial sectors, with the exception of GII,
which expects a slight decline in consumption from 2025 to 2030. The AEO2007 reference case shows higher industrial natural gas consumption than all
the other projections over the entire 2005-2030 period. With the exception
of GII and EEA, all the other organizations project growth in industrial
natural gas consumption from 2005 to 2015 and through the end of the projection
period. Growth in residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas consumption
in the AEO2007 reference case is offset, however, by the decline in natural
gas consumption by electricity generators.
Domestic natural gas production is projected to decline in the GII, EVA,
and Altos projections over the next decade; in all the other projections
it increases over the same period. GII and EVA expect the decline to be
reversed in 2025, with production slightly exceeding 2005 production levels.
DB and Altos are more pessimistic, projecting that natural gas production
will have declined by about 10 percent in 2025 relative to 2005 levels.
Altos expects domestic natural gas production in 2030 to be 21 percent
below 2005 levels. The AEO2007 high price case shows domestic natural gas
production of 20.9 trillion cubic feet in 2030, one of the more optimistic
projections. It is exceeded only by the SEER projection of 21.2 trillion
cubic feet in 2030.
With the exception of the AEO2007 high price case, net imports increase
significantly from 2005 to 2030 in all the projections, with increases
ranging from approximately 50 percent in the AEO2007 reference case and
GII projections to 255 percent in the Altos projection. The increase is
expected to come from LNG. With the exception of the DB projection and
the AEO2007 high price case, all the projections show higher LNG imports
than the AEO2007 reference case in 2015. Net LNG imports in 2015 in the
Altos projection, at 6.8 trillion cubic feet, are significantly higher
than those in the other projections; and Altos remains the most optimistic
projection in 2030, at 12.0 trillion cubic feet of net LNG imports. Net
LNG imports are 4.5 trillion cubic feet in 2030 in the AEO2007 reference
case, by far the lowest level of imports of any of the projections, with
DB and Altos projecting more than double that level. LNG imports in the AEO2007 high price case are even lower, at 2.3 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
The AEO2007 reference case also projects the lowest percentage of consumption
accounted for by LNG imports. LNG imports account for slightly under 17
percent of total natural gas consumption in 2025 in the AEO2007 reference
case—about the same as in the EEA projection— whereas the other organizations
expect LNG imports to account for between 21 and 40 percent of consumption.
For the most part, all the projections expect natural gas wellhead prices
to decline significantly from the 2005 level of $7.51 per thousand cubic
feet. The AEO2007 low price case shows the lowest projection for natural
gas wellhead prices in 2015 [174], followed by the AEO2007 reference case.
Natural gas wellhead prices in the AEO2007 reference and low price cases
in 2025 are at or below the levels in all the other projections. Among
the other organizations, only DB projects a natural gas wellhead price
below that in the AEO2007 reference case for 2030, and only Altos projects
a price that exceeds the 2005 price. In the GII and SEER projections, natural
gas wellhead prices in 2030 exceed the AEO2007 reference case projection
by less than 2 percent, and the Altos price projection for 2030 exceeds
the AEO2007 reference case projection by 26 percent.
Delivered natural gas price margins [175] to electricity generators are
consistently the lowest in the AEO2007 high price case and GII projections.
Both are notably lower than the historically high margins in 2005. The
margins in the SEER projection exceed those in the AEO2007 reference case
in all years by up to 120 percent. While the industrial sector margins
in the other projections exceed those in the AEO2007 reference case in
all years by as much as 120 percent [176], the disparity is largely attributable
to definitional differences, which can be seen by comparing the 2005 values
provided with the other projections. All projections show a decline in
industrial margins across the projection period relative to their 2005
values. SEER shows the greatest percentage decline from 2005 to 2025, at
17 percent; EEA shows the smallest decline at 5 percent; and the rest show
declines of around 13 percent. Residential and commercial sector margins
are, on average, about $5.40 and $3.70, respectively, with residential
sector margins in the AEO2007 reference case generally higher than those
in the projections from other organizations, and commercial sector margins
generally lower.
Petroleum
With significantly lower crude oil prices, the DB projections of U.S. petroleum
demand in 2015 and 2030 are only 2 percent higher than those in the AEO2007 reference case (Table 23). In the IEA reference case, total petroleum consumption
in 2015 is within 1 percent of the total petroleum consumption in the AEO2007 reference case; but in 2030, IEA’s total petroleum demand projection is
7 percent lower than in the AEO2007 reference case. Although the crude
oil price is almost $19 per barrel lower than that in the AEO2007 reference
case in 2030, total petroleum demand in the GII projection is lower than
in the AEO2007 reference case throughout the projection period. The GII
projection shows the lowest level of petroleum demand among the projections
reviewed, lower than the AEO2007 high price case projection. The AEO2007 low price case shows the highest levels of total petroleum demand in 2015
and 2030 among all the projections. The AEO2007 high price case also shows
higher petroleum demand than the GII projection in 2030, with projected
crude oil prices that are almost $60 per barrel higher. The extent to which
the projections from other organizations reviewed above and summarized
in Table 24 incorporate expectations of changes in vehicle efficiency standards
or other policy actions that could influence petroleum demand is not clear.
The projection of domestic crude oil production in the AEO2007 reference
case differs significantly from the other projections; rising from 5.2
million barrels in 2005 to a peak of 5.9 million barrels per day in 2017
and then declining to 5.4 million barrels per day in 2030. With the exception
of the IEA reference case, domestic crude oil production in the other projections
declines throughout the projection period to levels more than a million
barrels per day lower than in the AEO2007 reference case. Domestic crude
oil production falls to 3.4 million barrels per day in 2025 in the EVA
projection and 3.5 million barrels per day in 2030 in the DB projection.
In the IEA projection, domestic crude oil production increases until 2010,
then declines to 4.0 million barrels per day in 2030.
The higher crude oil prices in the AEO2007 reference case alone do not
fully explain the differences in the projections for domestic crude oil
production. For example, crude oil prices in the IEA projection are slightly
higher than in the AEO2007 reference case from 2012 through 2030, but domestic
crude oil production in 2030 is more than 1 million barrels per day below
domestic crude oil production in the AEO2007 reference case. The AEO2007 low price case, with crude oil prices in the mid-$30 per barrel range from
2015 through 2030, shows the same pattern of domestic crude oil production
as the AEO2007 reference case. Production rises from current levels, peaks
in 2015, and then gradually declines but still ends up slightly higher
in 2030 than the current level of production. The AEO2007 high price case
projects increasing domestic crude oil production, peaking in 2030 at more
than 6.0 million barrels per day.
The projections also differ on domestic NGL production. In the AEO2007 reference case, NGL production increases from current levels to a peak
of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2017 before falling back to 1.7 million
barrels per day in 2030, about equal to the 2005 level. NGL production
is 17 percent lower in 2015 in the DB projection and 37 percent lower in
2030 than in the AEO2007 reference case. The GII projection is more bullish,
with 2030 NGL production slightly higher than in the AEO2007 reference
case.
The differences in domestic crude oil production lead to very different
conclusions about U.S. dependence on imported petroleum. In the AEO2007 reference case, the import share of product supplied decreases from 60
percent in 2005 to below 55 percent in 2009 and then slowly rises back
to 61 percent in 2030. The share of imported petroleum increases from 2005
levels in the DB and GII projections throughout the projection period,
to 77 percent in 2030 in the DB projection and 75 percent in 2030 in the
GII projection. Despite higher petroleum demand in the AEO2007 low price
case, the projected import share rises to only 67 percent in 2030. In the AEO2007 high price case, the import share is projected to decline to 49
percent in 2030, well below 2005 levels.
Coal
The coal consumption, production, and price projections vary considerably,
reflecting uncertainty about environmental regulations and economic growth,
among many factors (Table 24). The coal projections from the AEO2007 cases
reflect existing environmental regulations, including CAAA90, CAIR, and
CAMR, which restrict SO2, NOx, and mercury emissions beginning in 2010.
The EVA projection incorporates similar regulations and also includes a
carbon tax of $6 per metric ton CO2 equivalent beginning in 2013. In addition
to differences in environmental assumptions, the AEO2007, EVA, and GII
projections reflect different assumptions about the outlook for economic
growth rates, the natural gas prices, and world oil prices.
All the projections show increases in total coal consumption over their
projection periods. Despite early similarities between the projections,
total coal consumption in the AEO2007 reference case after 2015 increases
more rapidly than in the EVA or GII projections. In the AEO2007 reference
case, total coal consumption grows by 14 percent from 2005 to 2015, to
1,282 million tons in 2015. With more restrictive environmental standards,
EVA projects lower levels of total coal consumption (8 percent lower in
2025) than the AEO2007 reference case. Between 2005 and 2025, coal consumption
grows by 2.1 percent per year in the AEO2007 reference case, which is substantially
higher than the 1.3-percent growth rate projected by EVA for the same period.
On a Btu basis between 2005 and 2015, GII projects growth in coal consumption
similar to that in the AEO2007 reference case. In 2030, however, coal consumption
in the AEO2007 reference case is 34.1 quadrillion Btu (19 percent) higher
than the GII projection of 28.7 quadrillion Btu.
In all the projections, coal consumption in the electricity sector accounts
for about 90 percent of total coal use. Coal consumption in the electricity
sector in the early years of the EVA and GII projections closely matches
that in the AEO2007 reference case. Both EVA and GII project slower growth
in coal consumption for the electric power sector over the entire projection
period. EVA projects total coal consumption in the electricity sector at
1,361 million short tons in 2025, 50 million tons less than that in the AEO2007 reference case. On a Btu basis, the GII projection for coal consumption
in the electric power sector is 26.7 quadrillion Btu in 2030, 14 percent
less than the 31.1 quadrillion Btu (1,570 million tons) projected for 2030
in the AEO2007 reference case.
The AEO2007 reference case includes the introduction of CTL technology
by 2011. Coal use at CTL plants increases to 112 million tons in 2030 in
the AEO2007 reference case, representing 6 percent of total coal consumption.
CTL production does not appear to be included in any of the other projections.
The AEO2007 reference case shows relatively constant coal consumption levels
for other industrial and buildings uses as well as at coke plants, in contrast
to the other projections. In the EVA projection, other industrial/buildings
coal consumption declines by 7 percent after 2015 to 68 million tons in
2025, nearly the same as the amount projected for 2015 in the AEO2007 reference
case. The AEO2007 reference case projection for other industrial/buildings
consumption in 2025 increases only slightly from 2015, to 68 million tons.
Coal consumption at coke plants peaks in 2010 in the EVA projection at 26 million
tons, slightly higher than the 22 million tons in the AEO2007 reference
case, then declines over the balance of the projection period. In 2025,
the EVA and AEO2007 reference case projections of coal consumption are
nearly the same for both coke plants and other industrial/buildings. The
GII projection for other industrial/buildings includes coal consumption
at coke plants. Compared with the AEO2007 reference case, GII’s projection
is lower over the entire period, declining after 2010 to 1.9 quadrillion
Btu in 2030—8 percent less than projected in the AEO2007 reference case.
With growing coal demand for electric power generation, most of the projections
show an upward trend in minemouth coal prices after 2020; however, Hill
& Associates, Inc. (Hill) and EVA project average minemouth coal prices
beginning to increase by 2015. Following a 10-year period of declining
minemouth coal prices, the AEO2007 reference case projects prices increasing
by 5 percent from 2020 to 2030. Hill projects the lowest minemouth coal
price in 2015, but it also projects the highest price in 2025, at $25.62
per short ton (2005 dollars), with the greatest rate of increase over the
projection period. Hill also projects the highest delivered coal price
to the electric power sector in 2025, at $39.08 per short ton, 21 percent
greater than in the AEO2007 reference case. In contrast to the other projections,
GII projects declining delivered coal prices to the electric power sector
through 2030, falling from $1.53 per million Btu (2005 dollars) in 2010
to $1.34 per million Btu in 2030—$0.26 per million Btu (16 percent) less
than in the AEO2007 low economic growth case.
Coal demand is met primarily through domestic production in all the projections.
Both the AEO2007 and EVA projections show U.S. coal production increasing
at an average rate of just over 1 percent per year from 2005 to 2015. EVA
projects coal production in 2025 at 1,452 million short tons, 65 million
short tons (4 percent) less than in the AEO2007 reference case. The AEO2007 reference case shows the largest increase in coal production over the entire
projection period, with output reaching 1,691 million tons in 2030, nearly
50 percent higher than in 2005. The GII projection for coal production
in 2030 is 5.1 quadrillion Btu (15 percent) below the AEO2007 reference
case projection,
at a level below that in the AEO2007 low economic growth case.
U.S. coal exports represent a small percentage of domestic coal production
in all the projections. EVA projects the highest level of coal exports,
49 million tons in 2025, but in contrast with the other projections shows
exports growing after 2010. Coal exports decline to 27 million short tons
or less in 2030 in all the AEO2007 cases. On a Btu basis, coal exports
in the GII projection are lower than those in the AEO2007 reference case
in 2030. All the projections expect the United States to become a net importer
of coal by 2020, with the AEO2007 and GII projections anticipating the
transition by 2015. U.S. coal imports reach 59 million tons in 2025 in
the EVA projection, 20 million tons less than projected in the AEO2007 reference case. The AEO2007 reference case projects the highest level of
coal imports, more than tripling over the projection period to 95 million
tons in 2030.
Tables 18 thru 24
Comparison with Other Projections Section Notes |