AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 915 PM MST FRI JUN 16 2006 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED SEASONALLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .DISCUSSION...A SMIDGE OF MOISTURE...LOCATED ON THE TUCSON SOUNDING AROUND 600 MB OR AROUND 15000 FEET MSL...PUSHED UP INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON....BASICALLY SOUTH OF A TUBAC TO RUCKER CANYON LINE. AS OF 9 PM...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUED ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND FAR SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THE SKY WAS CLEAR. DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY...IN WAKE OF THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH...WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT NORMAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THEY WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. && .AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT KTUS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON az AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 424 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...STG TO SEV TSTMS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SERN CO TODAY... ...MUCH LOWER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION THREAT TODAY... CURRENTLY...MILD-WARM CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S ACROSS SERN CO. ATYPICAL JUNE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM SLOW INCHING ITS WAY ACROSS CO. HINTS OF A CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN CO/NWRN NM WITH RELATIVELY DEEP S-SWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC PER RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. ISOLD-NUM SHRA/TSRA WERE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS IN RESPONSE TO H8-H7 AND H7-H6 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH OTHER IMPLIED VERTICAL MOTION AND AIR MASS DESTABLIZATION KINEMATICS. SFC DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE 20S/30S ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR AND WWD WITH SOME DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS IN VALLEYS. 50S DEW POINTS REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO...BUT RELATIVELY DRIER AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...ARE SNEAKING UP FROM THE S. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN ISOLD-SCT ECHOES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW LEVELS. KCOS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REPORT -RA...SO SOME PRECIPITATION IS HITTING THE GROUND...BUT LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS ERN EL PASO COUNTY-PUEBLO COUNTY AND BACK TOWARDS KIOWA COUNTY. KLHX...KLAA...AND KSPD STILL HAVE SLY WINDS. TODAY...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IN THE OFFING. BEING CHALLENGED BY MANY MODEL BIASES THIS MORNING. FIRST...THE NAM SFC DEW POINTS ARE WAY OVERDONE. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE MODEL PRINTING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION AND "JUICY" UP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVEN WHAT IS ON THE RADAR. 06Z/16 NAM12 HAS 50F DEW POINTS AROUND KPUB AT 12Z/16...NOT SURE IF THAT WILL EVEN BE CLOSE. THE TRUE SFC DEW POINTS...ALONG WITH OTHER FEATURES...WILL DICTATE HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL REALLY GET. WILL PLAY THE WEAK MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN CO TO MOVE SLOWLY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TODAY. LOW LEVEL SFC/PBL BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OUT FROM ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY TO BACA COUNTY TO PROWERS COUNTY. PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT DATA HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF 800-2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -7C IN EXTREME SERN CO AROUND THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MUCH DRIER LAYER...H8-H6...SO SFC DEW POINTS COULD GET MIXED OUT AND AFFECT THE CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX DATA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME "FAT" CAPE IN H6-H2 LAYER BETWEEN 15Z-21Z WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION(CIN) IN EXTREME SERN CO. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...PER MODEL DATA...TO REALIZE THE CAPE DESPITE THE WEAK CIN. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS EXITS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-75KTS JUXTAPOSED. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A SUPERCELL COULD GET ANCHORED ON THE BOUNDARY AND DOESN'T MOVE MUCH. FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE 6K-8K AND 4K-7K AGL FT...RESPECTFULLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST IN STRONG UPDRAFTS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVELS A LITTLE MORE SATURATED...LOWER LCL HEIGHT...FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EXTREME SERN CO NEAR THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT COULD HAPPEN IF ALL THE NECESSARY PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER. PLAN TO MENTION SEV TSTMS IN EXTREME SERN CO FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...TO THE W...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EWD. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY...AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP THE APPROX 700 ACRE TYNDALL GULCH WILDFIRE IN CUSTER COUNTY. STILL LOOKS LIKE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT A BIG CHALLENGE IN SERN CO SINCE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS. DON'T TYPICALLY SEE A LOT OF FALLING OR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN JUNE...BUT THIS IS AN ATYPICAL PATTERN. TONIGHT...WEAK SLOWLY MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE STG-SEV TSTMS SHOULD BE E AND S OF SERN CO BY THE EVE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TARGET. METZE .LONG TERM... (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY MORNING. NAM12 KEEPS SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE STATE DURING THE MORNING IN NW QUAD OF UPPER LOW IN VCNTY OF MID LVL THETA-E RIDGE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA. AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO NOSE IN OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DOWNWARD FORCING BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...ITS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH H7 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO BETWEEN +15 TO +21C BY MONDAY. CORE OF WARMEST H7 AIRMASS IS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THESE DAYS. SHORTWAVE RIDES OVERTOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN US ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT/TUES. THIS MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT TO NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE BY TUES MORNING. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THE IMPRESSIVE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WITH READINGS IN THE ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. LATEST GFS CUTS OFF ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AND KEEPS IT WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER SRN CA. THIS IS MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN 00Z RUN YESTERDAY HAD INDICATED. IF THIS VERIFIES...THEN COLD FRONT MAY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO SE CO FOR THE WED/THURS TIME FRAME. CURRENT GRIDS ARE GOING A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR PCPN...WHICH SEEMS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THIS LATEST RUN. THUS...NO CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS BEYOND TUESDAY. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 17/31 co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT MAY ALSO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT FOR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... 14Z TEMPS, WINDS AND SKY ON TARGET. NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO GRIDS/PRODUCTS. && .MARINE... MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS BASED ON OBS & RUC. NO OTHER CHANGES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT MAY ALSO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT FOR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ERLY THIS AM PROVIDING A QUIET NGT ACROSS OUR FA W/ MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LGT WNDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHALLOW PTCHY FOG ERLY THIS AM BUT A DRYING NNW WND YESTERDAY SHOULD KEEP THIS TO A MINIMUM... WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY MAY TRIGGER A FEW LGT PASSING SHOWERS AND WILL CONT TO CARRY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE W. SFC HGH XPCTD TO SETTLE SE NXT FEW DAYS W/ BOTH SFC AND UPPER FLOW TO BECOME MORE SWRLY W/ TIME. THIS BEGINS TODAY AND AS A RESULT...WILL SEE OUR TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. 00Z MODELS CONT TO PROG A WARM FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION LATER SAT W/ THE NAM/NGM MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE W/ POPS THAN THE GFS. XPCT THE FINAL SCENARIO WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BTWN AND THIS COMPROMISE YIELDS CHC POPS ACROSS MNLY NRN AREAS FOR SAT AFTN. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER BUT WARM AIR ALOFT ONLY ALLOWING FOR WEAK/THIN CAPE PROFILES SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE... CLDS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS WARM FRONT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH MORE ON SAT BUT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL REALLY HEAT UP ON SUN BEHIND THIS FRONT... LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. HAVE BASED THIS FORECAST ON A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND NAM. HAVE CREATED THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS FROM MAV/MET COMBINATION. HAVE LEFT THE SKY...POP AND WEATHER GRIDS IN TACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL ALSO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AVIATION... VFR CONDS XPCTD NXT 24 HRS THO COULD BE SOME PTCHY AM FOG ERLY SAT AS TDS BEGIN TO INCREASE... MARINE... LATEST BUOY RPTS SHOW SEAS CONTG TO COME DOWN AND WILL BLEND CURRENT WAVE HGTS W/ WNAWAVE GUIDANCE LATER THIS AM AND THIS YIELDS SEAS FALLING BLO SCA ERLY THIS AM HAS HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN FCST. WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND IF THIS TREND CONTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE CURRENT SCA BY 5 AM... LONG TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE WIND GRIDS WITH THE GFS. THE WAVE GRIDS INITIALIZED WITH THE WNA WAVE WATCH III. SINCE GFS WINDS GRIDS HAVE BEEN ACCEPTED HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WAVE MODEL. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THRU THIS PERIOD WITH SEAS MAINLY RESULT OF LONG FETCH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SHORT TERM/MARINE...KHW LONG TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...LULOFS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1150 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .UPDATE... THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ITS ALREADY AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE LATEST RUC MODELS SHOWS 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOUT 25 DEG C. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL YIELDS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S. AS FOR RAIN...88 OVER 62 GIVES CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH NO CAP. HOWEVER LITTLE OR NO CAPE EXISTS BELOW 700 MB...THUS WE WILL NEED TO LIFT PARCELS UP THIS HIGH TO REALIZE THE CAPE. I'LL KEEP IT DRY AT THIS POINT AS NO STRONGER LIFT IS FORECASTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MJS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MAIN CONCERN FOR AFTN HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP DRY FCST GOING FOR AFTN THOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS WITH THE DRY FCST. FIRST...MODIFYING THE GRB SOUNDING FOR A T/TD OF 85/64 (TD OF 60 USED EARLIER IS PROBABLY A BIT LOW BASED ON CURRENT OBS) GIVES SBCAPES AROUND 1500J/KG WITH LITTLE NEGATIVE AREA. CAVEOT HERE IS THAT WARM LAYER ON 12Z MPX SOUNDING AT H8 WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO W HALF OF CWA THIS AFTN WHICH WOULD STRENGTHEN CAPPING. SECOND...THERE IS AN INCREASING AREA OF +13C H85 DEWPOINTS POOLING OVR UPR MI PER RAOBS/RUC ADDING AN INCREASED AREA OF MOISTURE AROUND THE LCL NEAR 5000FT. SO...INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG WITH MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IS LACKING. EARLIER LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUD AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS SHIFTING N INTO N WI HAS DIMINISHED. ONLY OTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY IS VIA LK BREEZE (WINDS BACKING MORE ERLY) THAT MAY DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL UPR MI (VCNTY BIG BAY) THIS AFTN. BOTH RUC13 AND NAM12 SHOW THIS SCENARIO WHICH WOULD FAVOR ISOLD THUNDER DEVELOPMENT OVR N MARQUETTE COUNTY OVR HURON MTS. AS STRONGER H95-H85 WINDS SHIFT FARTHER E THIS AFTN IT IS FEASIBLE THAT LK BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AS RUC/NAM INDICATE. YET...BY THAT TIME THE OVERLYING SW FLOW THAT THE LK BREEZE WOULD INTERSECT WOULD BE PRETTY WEAK AND OVERALL... CONVERGENCE WOULD BE MINIMAL. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND OVER A VERY SMALL AREA...SO WILL LEAVE FCST DRY ATTM. && .PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT)... WATER VAPOR LOOP...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED 5H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE RIDGE EARLIER THIS EVENING TRIGGERED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF UPR MI. THESE SHRA/TSRA HAVE SPREAD INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS E. PREFER SLOWER GFS/UKMET TIMING WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST LIFTING OUT OF BASE OF WRN TROF. NAM LOOKS WAY TOO MOIST THROUGHOUT SNDG PROFILES TODAY AND IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF. WILL FOLLOW BLEND OF GFS AND UKMET FOR FORECAST DETAILS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS/UKMET INDICATE STRONG CAPPING FOR THE CWA TODAY WITH 750MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 13C AND CIN VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG. AFTER SHRA DISSIPATE EAST THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR A DRY FCST TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 17/18C...LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S FOR MANY INLAND. SRLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE (LOW 70S). GFS INDICATES MLCAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE WRN COUNTIES IN FRI EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. FORCING AT NOSE OF STRENGTHENING 30-35KT 8H JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM 80KT 3H JET OVER WRN ONTARIO SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO REACH INTO WRN COUNTIES LATE FRI NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR FAR WEST AND BROUGHT A LOW CHC POP FOR CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES LATE LEAVING ERN COUNTIES DRY. FCST SNDGS INDICATE A PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINING MARGINAL UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT WHEN VALUES INCREASE TO 30-35 KT. WITH FRZG LVLS AT AROUND 15 KFT...HAIL SHOULD NOT BE THREAT WITH STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS FCST OF 1.5-2 INCHES. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY PROVIDE A BETTER SETUP FOR POSSIBLE SVR STORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. APPROACH OF MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100+ KT 3H JET OVER ONTARIO SHOULD BRING NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPR MI SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MLCAPES RISING TO 1000-2000 J/KG SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING COMBINED WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35KT COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN MORNING ALTHOUGH BEST UPR DYNAMICS WILL HAVE EXITED EAST OF FCST AREA BY THEN. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR EARLY SUN AND THEN GO WITH A DRY FCST THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND 8H TEMPS OF 16-17C WOULD EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY A DOWNSLOPING WRLY WIND. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 920 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .UPDATE... QUICK GRID/ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EAST ZONES AS REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS HAS EXITED E UPR MI. SCT-BKN CLOUDS PERSIST OVR N AND E AREAS OF CWA AND THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY EVADE BY LATE MORNING. 12Z SOUNDING FM GRB REVEALED EXPECTED CAPPING WITH 725MB TEMP OF +10C. MODIFYING SOUNDING FOR T/TD OF 85/60 YIELDS AROUND 500J/KG OF CAPE BUT OVR 100 J/KG OF CINH. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT BAND OF ISOLD RADAR RETURNS OVR CNTRL WI SHIFTING NE TOWARD S UPR MI. NO PCPN REPORTED WITH THESE ECHOES AND SINCE PRIMARY JET ENERGY IS FAR TO THE WEST...DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED PCPN THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP DRY FCST GOING FOR NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 530 AM EDT)... WATER VAPOR LOOP...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED 5H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE RIDGE EARLIER THIS EVENING TRIGGERED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OF UPR MI. THESE SHRA/TSRA HAVE SPREAD INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS E. PREFER SLOWER GFS/UKMET TIMING WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST LIFTING OUT OF BASE OF WRN TROF. NAM LOOKS WAY TOO MOIST THROUGHOUT SNDG PROFILES TODAY AND IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC TROF. WILL FOLLOW BLEND OF GFS AND UKMET FOR FORECAST DETAILS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS/UKMET INDICATE STRONG CAPPING FOR THE CWA TODAY WITH 750MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 13C AND CIN VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG. AFTER SHRA DISSIPATE EAST THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR A DRY FCST TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO 17/18C...LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S FOR MANY INLAND. SRLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE (LOW 70S). GFS INDICATES MLCAPES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE WRN COUNTIES IN FRI EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. FORCING AT NOSE OF STRENGTHENING 30-35KT 8H JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM 80KT 3H JET OVER WRN ONTARIO SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO REACH INTO WRN COUNTIES LATE FRI NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR FAR WEST AND BROUGHT A LOW CHC POP FOR CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES LATE LEAVING ERN COUNTIES DRY. FCST SNDGS INDICATE A PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINING MARGINAL UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT WHEN VALUES INCREASE TO 30-35 KT. WITH FRZG LVLS AT AROUND 15 KFT...HAIL SHOULD NOT BE THREAT WITH STORMS. MAIN THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS FCST OF 1.5-2 INCHES. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY PROVIDE A BETTER SETUP FOR POSSIBLE SVR STORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN. APPROACH OF MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 100+ KT 3H JET OVER ONTARIO SHOULD BRING NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPR MI SAT INTO SAT EVENING. MLCAPES RISING TO 1000-2000 J/KG SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING COMBINED WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35KT COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. MODELS SEEM TO BE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN MORNING ALTHOUGH BEST UPR DYNAMICS WILL HAVE EXITED EAST OF FCST AREA BY THEN. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR EARLY SUN AND THEN GO WITH A DRY FCST THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND 8H TEMPS OF 16-17C WOULD EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY A DOWNSLOPING WRLY WIND. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA PREV DISCUSSION...VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1017 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .UPDATE... UPDATED ZONES/WATCH TO DROP NRN SECTIONS. && .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION FAILS TO INTENSIFY DESPITE NAM/S FORECAST OF STRENGTHENING JET...WHICH WAS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON FBY PROFILER. INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINS A BIT LIMITED SERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH NEAR AND SE OF OUTFLOW...WHILE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD FARTHER TO THE NW WHERE WATCH WAS DROPPED. WILL MONITOR ACTIVITY THROUGH 0330-0400Z AND UNLESS INTENSIFICATION OCCURS IN MARGINAL AREA BETWEEN THOSE AREAS...WL PROBABLY DROP REST OF THE WATCH. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MAIN THREAT THE REST OF TONIGHT AS CELLS TRAIN NNEWD IN DEEP MOISTLY SRLY FLOW...BUT MAINLY FOR WRN CWA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006) DISCUSSION... AFD SHORT DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER BREWING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT EASTERN SD TO WESTERN KS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A SVR TS WATCH TILL 00Z OVER NE NEB. CLUSTER OF STORMS GENERALLY MOVING NE WITH FLOW OF UPPER LEVEL JET. CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CWA...WITH AREAS OVER NORTHEAST NEB MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SEVERE WX THIS AFTERNOON. PWS PLOT FROM MORNING RUN INDICATED AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER CWA...1.45" AT OMA WHICH IS ALMOST 150% OF NORMAL. LATEST MSAS DATA SUGGESTING INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM NRN IA TO WRN KS WHILE PROFILER DATA AT NELIGH INDICATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT COULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER...RATHER HIGH MLLCL/MLLFC OVER THE CWA SUGGEST TOR THREAT NOT TOO LIKELY PER LATEST RUC FCST. ALSO REVEALED FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...ABOUT 15 KFT. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DCAPE VALUES SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT MOST PREVALENT. FOR TONIGHT...PCPN APPEARS IMMINENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AS MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CWA. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN TROP...INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT...AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS...GOOD REASON TO SUSPECT SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. PROGGED PWS GENERALLY 1.75-2 INCHES WITH KI VALUES AROUND 40. MET/MAV 12HR QPF BY SAT 12Z INDICATE POSSIBLE 1-2 INCHES AROUND THE WESTERN CWA PERIPHERY. AT THIS POINT...DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE WX THREAT PAST EARLY EVENING. ON SATURDAY PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MEANDERS THRU THE PLAINS. WILL LEAVE TOKEN POPS IN SAT NITE FOR THE SE CWA IN CASE OF LINGERING ACTIVITY. SUNDAY DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. $$ && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ CHERMOK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 305 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... AFD SHORT DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER BREWING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT EASTERN SD TO WESTERN KS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A SVR TS WATCH TILL 00Z OVER NE NEB. CLUSTER OF STORMS GENERALLY MOVING NE WITH FLOW OF UPPER LEVEL JET. CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CWA...WITH AREAS OVER NORTHEAST NEB MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SEVERE WX THIS AFTERNOON. PWS PLOT FROM MORNING RUN INDICATED AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER CWA...1.45" AT OMA WHICH IS ALMOST 150% OF NORMAL. LATEST MSAS DATA SUGGESTING INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM NRN IA TO WRN KS WHILE PROFILER DATA AT NELIGH INDICATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT COULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER...RATHER HIGH MLLCL/MLLFC OVER THE CWA SUGGEST TOR THREAT NOT TOO LIKELY PER LATEST RUC FCST. ALSO REVEALED FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...ABOUT 15 KFT. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DCAPE VALUES SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT MOST PREVALENT. FOR TONIGHT...PCPN APPEARS IMMINENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AS MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CWA. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN TROP...INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT...AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS...GOOD REASON TO SUSPECT SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. PROGGED PWS GENERALLY 1.75-2 INCHES WITH KI VALUES AROUND 40. MET/MAV 12HR QPF BY SAT 12Z INDICATE POSSIBLE 1-2 INCHES AROUND THE WESTERN CWA PERIPHERY. AT THIS POINT...DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE WX THREAT PAST EARLY EVENING. ON SATURDAY PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MEANDERS THRU THE PLAINS. WILL LEAVE TOKEN POPS IN SAT NITE FOR THE SE CWA IN CASE OF LINGERING ACTIVITY. SUNDAY DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DEE ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1012 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .UPDATE... A SHORT WAVES SLIDING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE ONTARIO. BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF THE SHOWERS...WILL HAVE TO EXTEND THE CHANCE OF PCPN FARTHER TO THE WEST TO INCLUDE MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE TRENDS ON THE IR SATELLITE LOOP AND THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT THE STEADIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDES TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE IN THE LIKELY POPS FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING...POSSIBLY AN MCS... LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WE HAVE THUS RAISED THE POPS TO LIKELY THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUMMER WEATHER ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 20. AT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S AND MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CRESTING OVER US WE DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EDGING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ZONES, SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY, SO WHILE THE FIRST SHOT OF VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY, THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF CONVECTION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED ON 00Z AND 06Z DATA WHICH SUGGESTED THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH UPSTREAM ON THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER NEW 12Z GFS GUIDANCE IS FASTER. SOUNDS LIKE WE WILL SEE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. AVIATION... SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE RIDING UP CENTRAL US ON BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST ONE IS CRESTING THE RIDGE AT 19Z JUST NORTH OF MN AND WILL HEAD EAST...JUST CLIPPING THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME CONVECTION FROM ABOUT KART NORTH. AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE A CB FOR KART BUT NO RESTRICTIONS YET. THIS IS WORTH WATCHING HOWEVER. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS OF WESTERN NY SHOULD SEE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NO PRECIPITATION AND ONLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR NYZ001>007-010>014-019>021-085 FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TJP ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1010 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOWING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR OVER THE FCST AREA AT 0145Z. THE LATEST 40KM RUC OUTPUT WITH THE IR SATELLITE PICTURE AND CG LTG DATA OVERLAYED SHOWS SOME SCT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY WITH AN H500 VORT MAX. THIS SHORTWAVE AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. THE GFS DEPICTS SHOWALTER VALUES FALLING TO -2C TO -4C FROM ALY NORTH BTWN 12Z-18Z. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. WE HAVE KEPT THE THREAT OF SCT -SHRAS/-TSRAS IN THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z. WE BACKED THE TIMING OFF A FEW HOURS. WE FEEL IF THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND HOLDS TOGETHER THAT IT WOULD REACH THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND 11Z/7 AM OR SO. HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPT TRENDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON OBS. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. .AVIAITION...A PROB30 WAS ADDED TO THE KGFL AND KALB TERMINALS FOR A TSRA BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A LARGE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND SET UP INTO A BERMUDA HIGH SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN EVEN WARMER TEMPS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. MOST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING STILL EXISTS. RIGHT NOW ONLY WEAK CONVECTION OCCURRING WHERE THE GFS SAYS THE MCS SHOULD INITIATE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE GFS DOES NOT GIVE ANY STRONG INDICATIONS TO SUPPORT A LARGE MCS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DURING THE NIGHT AN INTENSE 850 MB JET DEVELOPS ON THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIVE ALMOST SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE 850 MB JET REACHES 50 KTS AND IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD HELP FUEL ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES THIS AFTERNOON. AM STILL DOUBTFUL OF SUCH A SCENARIO...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MOST LIKELY MCS TRACK. IF AN MCS DOES DEVELOP...THE GFS CORRECTLY FORECASTS IT TO TRACK ALMOST DUE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS IT FOLLOWS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. THE NAM SLIDES ANY ACTIVITY ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND MOST OF VT AND ANY MCS IS UNLIKELY TO FOLLOW SUCH A TRACK DUE TO THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER THAT REGION.. THE ONLY OTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS WEEKEND WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH FRON THE WEST. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEY SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. THE GFS SHARPENS UP THE TROF AS IT APPROACHES AND THIS CAUSES THE COLD FRONT TO SLOW DOWN...AND HAVE LINGERED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ALL ZONES...AND WELL INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY COOL THINGS DOWN FOR TUESDAY...BUT MID/UPPER LEVELS HEIGHT QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S MOST PLACES DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME SHWRS/TSTMS ON FRIDAY. AVIATION.../18Z FRIDAY THOUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A BROKEN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO STREAM IN FROM AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 500 HPA RIDGE. RESULTING IN A DECK OF BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET MSL. VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE VFR BUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENCOUNTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME CALM TONIGHT. LITTLE OR NO RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM DUE TO THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 8 TOI 10 KNOTS. THE AIR WILL BE INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AS TIME GOES ON WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AND VISIBILITY MAY BECOME IMPARED BY LIGHT FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAZE ON SUNDAY. HYDROLOGY...THE HUDSON RIVER FROM HADLEY TO TROY IS STILL ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO RELEASE OF STORED WATER FROM GREAT SACANDAGA. THE MOHAWK WAS BACK TO NORMAL. THE HOUSATONIC REMAINS LOW. THE AIR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH BY LATE SUNDAY. NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS MIDLEVEL (STEERING) WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 20 TO 25 KNOTS SO ANY AIR MASS TYPE STORMS THAT POP UP SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO AVERT FLOODING. MODELS SUGGEST BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR PONDING ON ROADS AND PARKING AREAS. SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL ALLOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE SOIL TO TAKE PLACE AND RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR NYZ038 FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY. VT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WASULA ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 935 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .UPDATE /OVERNIGHT/... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WAA ALOFT CONTINUES AND CONVECTION FIRES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. CANADIAN RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING CONVECTION ONGOING NOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 18Z NAM MISSED THIS CONVECTION SO FAR, WHILE THE 18Z GFS AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE RUC HAD THIS CONVECTION PRESENT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS THAT DO HAVE THIS CURRENT CONVECTION IS TO DRIVE IT INTO NEW ENGLAND, HOWEVER THERE ARE HINTS OF IT TRYING TO GRAZE OUR FAR NORTH-NORTHEASTERN ZONES (MAINLY THE GFS). WITH A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER OUR CWA AND WITH A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP, THINK THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL MONITOR THIS THOUGH OVERNIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH, MAINLY CLEAR SHOULD STILL COVER IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO TWEAK HOURLY DATA BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ATTM. THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND! UPDATED PRODUCTS TO HIT THE STREET SHORTLY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ISSUED /300 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006/ .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH JUST A BIT OF CU AND SOME CI, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S - AND WITH RH'S ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S IN MOST SPOTS, I'M SURE NOT MANY ARE COMPLAINING. FOR TONIGHT, AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS WANTS TO TAKE THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE THE NAM SHIFTS IT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS 250 MB DIVERGENCE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE ALL CORRESPOND WELL WITH THE GFS QPF FIELDS THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE PROPAGATION OF THE RELATED MCS. SO I CAN SEE WHY IT'S TRACKING IT OUR WAY. THE NAM SHARPENS THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT FASTER, HELPING TO DEFLECT THE FEATURE TO OUR NORTH. I'M ALSO CONCERNED THAT THE GFS HAD QUITE A BIT OF QPF AT 18Z OVER ONTARIO - IN REALITY THAT WAS NOT THE CASE. THE NAM WAS MORE RESERVED. LASTLY, IF THIS WAS GOING TO BE AN INTENSE MCS, I WOULD BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAT IT WOULD GET OVER THE RIDGE IN TACT. WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DRY TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW (PER THE NAM). WHEREVER THE FEATURE ENDS UP, IT WILL BE IN ITS DISSIPATING STAGE. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW. THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SUNDAY WHEN 18 TO 19 DEGREE C H8 TEMPS SURGE INTO THE REGION. WE'VE MAINTAINED THE SMALL RISK OF A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM THE 00Z RUN CONCERNING THE DEPTH OF THE NORTHEAST TROF, BUT STILL IS TRENDING SLOWER AND DEEPER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE GFS HAS BEEN USED TO RESOLVE THE FINER DETAILS. WITH THE EXPECTED TROF POSITIONED MORE SO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. RATHER THAN THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE COLD FRONT THAT MAKES IT'S WAY INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS ACROSS THE CWA - AND WITHOUT THE NECESSARY PUSH, IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP A WEAKENED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY, POSSIBLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, TWO THINGS COME TO MIND. ALTHOUGH NOT A TERRIBLY STRONG COLD FRONT, THERE COULD BE SOME DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE CWA. IF THE SURFACE HIGH IS BROAD ENOUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY FLOW COULD DEVELOP YIELDING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, IT WILL BE KEPT IN MIND. THE OTHER ITEM THAT COMES TO MIND IS THE THREAT OF CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONT AND WARM SECTOR. SMALL POPS WILL BE INCLUDED. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONLY SIG CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SCT CU 5-7 THSD FT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT SW DIRECTION BY SUNSET AND BE VERY LIGHT SW OR CALM OVERNIGHT. GENERAL SW FLOW RESUMES ON SAT AND WINDS GET STRONGER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAY BE SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH RISK TO MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGER GRADIENT SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AFTER THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT A DIURNAL TREND IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME SEABREEZES DEVELOPING AND WINDS INCREASING EACH AFTN, THEN A LIGHT LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING AT NIGHT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GORSE SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...GSZAT MARINE...GSZAT pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 118 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... WATCHING A DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY DECENT CHANCE OF MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND NORTHEAST. INSTABILITY GRADIENT SET UP OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF OFK TO JUST NORTH OF SUX TO NEAR SPW. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HELP KEEP THIS FRONT IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT IS A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...SO WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LEAVES SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED...THE NELIGH PROFILER SUGGESTS ABOUT 45 KNOTS OF SPEED SHEAR...AND WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED WIND THREAT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHERN SD AND NORTHWEST IOWA LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. EXPECT A WATCH SOON. 08 .PREV DISCUSSION... FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THE MERRIMAN AND NELIGH PROFILERS SUGGESTING SOME DECENT DIFFLUENCE WITH EXISTING JET MAX. THE FRONT WAS FOUND FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO SYDNEY NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AT 14Z...AND CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING IN NW KS/SW NE AT 1430Z AS WAVE IN COLORADO BEGINS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHERE NEAR 900MB DECENT DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING WHICH IS BEING ADVECTED INTO/NEAR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THIS INSTABILITY/INSTABILITY ADVECTION BECOMES A LITTLE MORE EAST/WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSE AND WOULD SUSPECT CONVECTION FILLING IN OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD INSTEAD OF NORTHWARD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH POPS THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED TO THE WEST ABOUT 50 MILES WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. 08 NOT AN EASY FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH MAIN FOCUS ON DETERMINING TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT HAS BEEN FINDING RESISTANCE IN DEEP LAYER OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 750-700MB. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WAVE REFOCUSING DYNAMIC SUPPORT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAY LEAVE AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. 06Z RUC SEEMED TO HANDLE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE PRETTY WELL...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE WEAK ON THE STRENGTH BASED ON DEGREE OF CURVATURE SEEN IN MID LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN MCCOOK AND MERRIMAN PROFILER WINDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH THIS WAVE PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP FOCUS OF BEST POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA NOT GETTING MUCH ABOVE 80. THIS A LITTLE WORRISOME LOOKING AT EARLY MORNING TEMPS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOME AREAS...BUT AS RAIN MOVES IN...THESE AREAS SHOULD COOL A LITTLE AND HAVE TO RECOVER AFTER THE RAIN PASSES. THINK AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES BY THE AREA...FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LITTLE SUN AND HEATING OUT. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS FOR SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL WORDING IN THIS AREA TONIGHT...AS BETTER FORCING WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THINK SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH BEST OF ANY CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST HEATING IS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND PROVIDE LOCALIZED BETTER SHEAR...BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER OUR AREA NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND FREEZING LEVEL FORECAST TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 13KFT AGL...SO THINK THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIMITED. WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND WILL MENTION THIS AS GREATER THREAT FROM ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS IN THE HWO. ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PAST FEW RUNS...AND THIS WILL KEEP FRONT FROM PUSHING ALL THE WAY THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIP LINGERING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY...AS INSTABILITY LESS IMPRESSIVE AND SHEAR WEAK ACROSS THE AREA WITH FLOW GENERALLY MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. BEYOND SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES BECOME MORE LIMITED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH OVERALL SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...AND ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN BLOCKED BY UPPER LOW/STALLING FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WORRY ABOUT PRECIP JUST YET. MUCH BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP MONDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH FOCUS OF JET SEEMS TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THAT TIME...WILL BASICALLY SHIFT LOW CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION BACK 24 HOURS TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO LONGER RANGE OF FORECAST THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION... BROAD SFC TROF JUST WEST OF CWA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW -TSRA MOVING STEADILY TOWARD AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MRNG. HOWEVER LATEST TRENDS SHOW A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND PCPN COVERAGE...AND LATEST RUC CONFIRMS THIS TREND THRU THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS TAF AND TWB RTES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS/-TSRA THRU MID MRNG...THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU ALOFT...AND SFC TROF MUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE MN...NONE IA...NONE NE...NONE && $$ JH/GH sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1029 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... FRONT REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THE MERRIMAN AND NELIGH PROFILERS SUGGESTING SOME DECENT DIFFLUENCE WITH EXISTING JET MAX. THE FRONT WAS FOUND FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO SYDNEY NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND AT 14Z...AND CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING IN NW KS/SW NE AT 1430Z AS WAVE IN COLORADO BEGINS TO SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHERE NEAR 900MB DECENT DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING WHICH IS BEING ADVECTED INTO/NEAR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THIS INSTABILITY/INSTABILITY ADVECTION BECOMES A LITTLE MORE EAST/WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSE AND WOULD SUSPECT CONVECTION FILLING IN OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD INSTEAD OF NORTHWARD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH POPS THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED TO THE WEST ABOUT 50 MILES WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. 08 .PREV DISCUSSION... NOT AN EASY FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH MAIN FOCUS ON DETERMINING TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT HAS BEEN FINDING RESISTANCE IN DEEP LAYER OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 750-700MB. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK WAVE REFOCUSING DYNAMIC SUPPORT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...MAY LEAVE AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. 06Z RUC SEEMED TO HANDLE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE PRETTY WELL...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE WEAK ON THE STRENGTH BASED ON DEGREE OF CURVATURE SEEN IN MID LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN MCCOOK AND MERRIMAN PROFILER WINDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH THIS WAVE PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP FOCUS OF BEST POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP TEMPS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA NOT GETTING MUCH ABOVE 80. THIS A LITTLE WORRISOME LOOKING AT EARLY MORNING TEMPS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOME AREAS...BUT AS RAIN MOVES IN...THESE AREAS SHOULD COOL A LITTLE AND HAVE TO RECOVER AFTER THE RAIN PASSES. THINK AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES BY THE AREA...FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE THEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LITTLE SUN AND HEATING OUT. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS FOR SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL WORDING IN THIS AREA TONIGHT...AS BETTER FORCING WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THINK SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH BEST OF ANY CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST HEATING IS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND PROVIDE LOCALIZED BETTER SHEAR...BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER OUR AREA NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND FREEZING LEVEL FORECAST TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AROUND 13KFT AGL...SO THINK THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIMITED. WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND WILL MENTION THIS AS GREATER THREAT FROM ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS IN THE HWO. ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PAST FEW RUNS...AND THIS WILL KEEP FRONT FROM PUSHING ALL THE WAY THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIP LINGERING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY...AS INSTABILITY LESS IMPRESSIVE AND SHEAR WEAK ACROSS THE AREA WITH FLOW GENERALLY MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. BEYOND SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES BECOME MORE LIMITED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH OVERALL SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...AND ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN BLOCKED BY UPPER LOW/STALLING FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO WORRY ABOUT PRECIP JUST YET. MUCH BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP MONDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH FOCUS OF JET SEEMS TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THAT TIME...WILL BASICALLY SHIFT LOW CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION BACK 24 HOURS TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO LONGER RANGE OF FORECAST THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION... BROAD SFC TROF JUST WEST OF CWA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW -TSRA MOVING STEADILY TOWARD AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MRNG. HOWEVER LATEST TRENDS SHOW A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND PCPN COVERAGE...AND LATEST RUC CONFIRMS THIS TREND THRU THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS TAF AND TWB RTES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS/-TSRA THRU MID MRNG...THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU ALOFT...AND SFC TROF MUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE MN...NONE IA...NONE NE...NONE && $$ JH/GH sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .UPDATE... DRYLINE PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES ATTM WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN TO THE EAST. RUC HAS HAD BETTER HANDLE ON WIND FIELDS SO FAR THIS MORNING AND LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD WITH DRYLINE POSITION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING FROM WEST TEXAS MESONET THIS MORNING SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO 12Z MAF SOUNDING WITH MID LEVEL INVERSION...WEAKNESS IN WIND FIELD ABOVE 700 MB AND STRONG CAP AROUND 15C AT 700MB. SATL SHOWING VORT CENTER ACROSS NRN NM WITH DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN NM. EXPECT DRYLINE TO SHARPEN ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CLOSER TO CENTER OF SYSTEM. WITH STRONG CAP FURTHER S...EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORMS AND LATER INITIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS BIG SPRING. ADVERTISED SEVERE THREAT LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. BUMPED TEMPS UP SOME GIVEN DRY SOILS AND FORECAST SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW BEHIND DRYLINE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN BEHIND DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RH VALUES ALREADY NEAR 10%. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING WIND SPEEDS BACK TO MARGINAL 20 MPH AT 20 FT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BUT STILL A FEW LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND RED FLAG EASTWARD SOME IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAILEY...COCHRAN...PARMER...AND YOAKUM. && $$ 24 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1033 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS MORNING SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW DEEP AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DRY ADIABATIC TO 700 MB WITH SOME MOISTURE AROUND THAT LEVEL. RUC INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN TODAY FOR A HIGH-BASED SHOWER IN NE VT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF DOWNDRAFTS...WIND GUSTS COULD BE 30 MPH WITH ANY SHOWER. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY AND 12-13 DEG AT 850 SHOULD BRING LOW TO MID 80S. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SUMMER-LIKE WX ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...SETTING UP HUMID SW FLOW INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPS WILL GRAD INCR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGE SETS UP. WNW FLOW TDY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE SE. SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION WILL WORK E OVER GREAT LKS TDY/TNGT AND OVER TOP OF RIDGE INTO SE CANADA BY SATURDAY. WARM FRNT ASSOCIATED W/ SFC LOW WILL TRAIL ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER ZONES DURING THIS TIME. NAM A BIT MORE GENEROUS ON PRECIP VS GFS. STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD ERODE SOME OF THE FRNTL EFFECTS AND LESSEN PRECIP AND WILL GO W/ GFS AND PUT IN SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW W/ HIR EMPHASIS IN SLV/N NY. WHEN THIS FRNT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SAT NGT...ENTIRE CWA WILL FEEL HUMID AIR WORKING INTO REGION. SFC CD FRNT W/ LOW WILL TRAIL ALONG SFC RIDGE...ALLOWING TEMPS TO SOAR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-20C...SO WILL PUT CWA IN NEAR 90F RANGE...WHICH WILL BE SHY OF RECORD HIGHS FOR CWA FOR SUNDAY WHICH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90F RANGE. FRNT BEGINS TREK THRU CWA. AIR WILL BE UNSTABLE SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHER ISSUE W/ FROPA WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. LL JET JUST BEHIND FRNT MAY PUSH GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH OR HIR...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF ANY TS...SO WILL MAKE SURE IF NOT ALREADY MENTIONED...TO PUT IN. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUN NGT INTO TUES...FRNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THRU THE FA...W/ SLOW MVMNT CAUSED BY BLOCKING HIGH FORCING FRNT TO MV MORE NE. MENTION OF RW/TRW LOOKS GD ATTM WITH STRONG FRNT...COMBINED W/ HUMID AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL UNSTABLE AIR FOR TRW DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MENTIONED AND WILL NOT CHANGE ATTM. TUES NGT BACK EDGE OF FRNT CLRS E VT ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LKS REGION TO SLIDE E THRU WED...THEN SE AND OFF THE COAST BY THURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. AVIATION... SFC HI PRESSURE PA/VA MOVES TO COASTAL VA THIS EVENING AND THEN OFFSHORE. PATCHY MID CLDS NOTED ON SATL IMAGERY ACRS SRN AND ERN VT ATTM WL EXIT AREA BY SUNRISE. LCL IFR CONDS IN FOG AT KSLK THRU 12Z THIS MRNG. OTRW VSBY GNRLY UNRSTD WITH SCT CLDS 6-8K FT...LCLY BKN THIS AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. WK WRMFNT APRCHES ST LAW VLY AND ADIRONDACKS LATE TNGT WITH SLGT CHC SHWR/TSTM THOSE AREAS AFTR 04Z WITH LCL MVFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SISSON vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 844 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SLOW MOVING FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN/DAKOTAS BORDER INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM NEAR TWIN CITIES METRO AREA...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST IOWA. RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ONLY ABOUT 20-25KTS. THEREFORE...MULTI-CELL STORM MODE STILL EXPECTED. BASED ON LATEST RUC POSITION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SITUATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHWEST IOWA. APPEARS NORTH AND WEST MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IMPACTED...WHICH CURRENT DATA BASE ALREADY INDICATES WELL. THUS...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST DATA BASE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 315 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 .DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THRU SUNDAY AND HIGH TEMPS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP HOLDING WITH CIN EXCEEDING 100 JOULES. LACK OF ANY KICKER SO EXPC DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH GFS...PREFER ITS HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN NM EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND PROFILERS SHOWING SLIGHT BACKING IN LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF WAVE. PREFER MORE SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATION OF LLJ VERSUS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS DEPICTED BY 12Z NAM. HENCE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPCD TO CARRY ACRS IA AND MN INTO NWRN WI TNGT AND WL RMN OPTIMISTIC FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACRS SRN WI. SFC DEWPTS NEAR 70 CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACRS SRN MS VALLEY...AND A FEW DEWPTS TICKLING 70 ON IA/MN BORDER. PERSISTENT SLY WNDS WL CONT TO CARRY DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD TWD WI TNGT AND SAT. APPEARS EMBEDDED IN SLY FLOW IS WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT IS INITIATING CONVECTION IN SRN MO. BOTH GFS AND NAM BRING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE ACRS SRN WI ON SATURDAY. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXPCD TO BE IN PLACE...SB CAPE EXPCD TO ECLIPSE 1000 J WITH LI/S AROUND -4. AS ADVERTISED LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROF ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI SAT AFTN AND NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES AS AREA OF UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN PASSES ACRS SRN WI. BULK SHEAR MARGINAL BUT ISOLD SUPER CELLS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT AFTN AND EVE. DEEPEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SECONDARY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPCD TO SLIP THROUGH ON SUN. FOR NOW WL CONT WITH LOW POPS INTO SUN NGT. FOR EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING MON NGT...GFS 500H ENSEMBLES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRUGH BULK OF DAY 4-7 PERIOD...HOWEVER MORE VARIABILITY NOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPR LEVEL RIDGING STILL EXPCD TO BRING PERIOD OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FROM MON THRU TUE...HWVR EXTENDED GUIDANCE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING THRU WESTERN GREAT LAKES ABOUT 12 HOURS EARLIER. HENCE ADDED POPS TO WED. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMOLIES SHOW PERSISTENT W TO SWLY FLOW CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BROADSCALE RIDGING ACRS SRN CONUS. WL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME WEAK WAVES CAUGHT IN WLY FLOW LTR NEXT WEEK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MBK wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 400 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .SYNOPSIS... 07Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AMPLIFIED H5 PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WITH AN ACTIVE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE MINIMAL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD NORTH FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH DOWN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE MEAN LOW LAYER FLOW FROM THE E-NE TODAY...AND THEN VEERING TO THE SE AND S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL AMPLIFY AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN BREAK DOWN THE EAST COAST RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWARD OUT TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW HEIGHTS RISING ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL BRING IN A GENERAL REGIME 2 FORMATION WITH E-NE FLOW AROUND 10KTS. DRIER AIR ARRIVING ON THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THINGS A BIT LESS ACTIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THAN WAS SEEN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HELPED FOCUS YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WILL BE WASHING OUT AND MOVING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. WITHOUT THE HELP OF THIS FOCUS MECHANISM...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION SOMEWHAT MORE SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION AND ALSO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF KTLH. PERIODS OF HAZY SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS RESIDUAL CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND THEN IS REPLACES BY AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAN LAYER FLOW COMING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS BUT MORE OF A GENERAL 20 TO 30 POP ACROSS MAINLY NORTH FLORIDA AND OUR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ZONES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AND DID FEEL THAT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR ALABAMA ZONES. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON OUR AREA...WHICH IS MORE THE CLIMO NORM FOR MID TO LATE JUNE. ONE BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AND THE GFS IS ADVERTISING YET ANOTHER TOWARD FRIDAY...NEITHER SHOULD HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THE PREDOMINANT FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE GRADIENT WITH THIS RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF NEAR CAUTION WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY TODAY. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE LIKELY TO COME AROUND ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING EACH AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION... A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL REGION FROM CONVECTION BLOW OFF TO THE WEST...& THIS WILL GRADUALLY THIN...BUT WILL HOLD MOST OF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. ALSO THE SURFACE RIDGING IS PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST...WITH AN EAST FLOW OF 5-10 MPH. THIS IS ALSO DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT...SO THREAT OF FOG THIS EARLY MORNING IS LESSENING. TODAY...WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THINNING THROUGH THE MORNING & VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT WILL BE HELD BACK SOME WITH THE EAST FLOW. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY IS ONLY AROUND 20%...& THE BEST CHANCES IN SE AL & THE FL EASTERN PANHANDLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN 40-45% FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER 30 FOR OUR AL & GA ZONES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN AL & GA. && .HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 92 70 92 69 / 20 10 20 20 PANAMA CITY 90 73 89 73 / 20 20 30 20 DOTHAN 92 70 91 70 / 10 20 30 20 ALBANY 93 68 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 VALDOSTA 91 67 92 68 / 10 10 20 20 CROSS CITY 91 67 91 67 / 20 20 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MCT PUBLIC/MARINE...BAM fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... SAT-SAT NIGHT: REMNANT MCS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING IN SOUTHEAST KS AT 1200 UTC... AIDED BY 500MB TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW PER PROFILERS. HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING WILL OCCUR WEST OF ICT-SLN BEFORE 1800 UTC...BUT CONSENSUS HAS DICTACTED KEEPING LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOING. CHANCES WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING CONVECTION. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS MORE RIGHT...WITH LATEST RUC LENDING CREDENCE TO GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SOLUTION. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING DRY SLOTTED THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS OTHER THAN TO SLIGHTLY READJUST GOING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST KS AND LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND INFLUX OF DRIER MIDDLE LEVEL AIR WOULD INCREASE SEVERE CHANCES. WILL PONDER MORE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SUN-TUE: LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER TO MOVE MAIN UPPER WAVE THROUGH...AND PER CONCENSUS HAVE NIXED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON MON AND TUE. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOK GOOD OVER MOST OF AREA ON SUN WITH RECIRCULATED MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC 850MB FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS SUN NIGHT UNTIL MOISTURE CLEARLY EXITS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOTS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...DEW POINTS AND STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION. LATEST 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ARE A BIT WARMER AND TWEAKED VALUES UP SLIGHTLY. TUE NIGHT-SAT: BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AND EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL NOW HINTING AT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS EITHER KS OR NEBRASKA TUE NIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND 850MB MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF FRONT...MCS LOOKS PROBABLE..BUT UNCLEAR WHERE TRACK WILL BE. CERTAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE BEST CHANCE...WITH OVERALL PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK PER BOTH EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL AND GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL. GIVEN CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING EACH RUN...WILL NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE IN THE NORTH. WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE MCS/S POSSIBLE HAVE NOT WENT ALONG WITH WARMER THICKNESSES OF GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL FOR MAXES. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 82 65 90 68 / 60 60 20 5 HUTCHINSON 82 65 91 67 / 60 40 20 5 NEWTON 81 65 90 67 / 60 60 20 5 ELDORADO 81 66 89 67 / 70 60 30 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 83 66 90 69 / 60 70 30 10 RUSSELL 82 62 91 66 / 60 20 10 5 GREAT BEND 83 62 91 66 / 60 20 10 5 SALINA 80 65 91 67 / 60 40 10 5 MCPHERSON 81 65 90 67 / 60 40 20 5 COFFEYVILLE 81 67 88 67 / 80 80 40 20 CHANUTE 81 66 87 66 / 80 80 40 20 IOLA 81 66 87 66 / 80 80 40 20 PARSONS-KPPF 81 66 87 67 / 80 80 40 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR TODAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION DRIFTING THIS WAY BUT QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FORENOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ONLY ADD TO INSTABILITY AND CHC FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. RUCII INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA BY LATE MRNG SETTING STAGE FOR AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY AS WELL DEPENDING ON AREAL EXTENT AND PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER. AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OF AREA LATER TONIGHT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END. LIFTED EARLIER FCST PCPN FROM SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY AS SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. MAINTAINED PCPN IN LATER PDS OF FCST WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AGAIN AND AREA PRONE TO WNW FLOW TSTMS. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 231 AM MDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEIR IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET. TODAY/TONIGHT...UPPER LOW CENTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEEPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. WE LOOK TO HAVE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SO SOME POPS WILL BE NEEDED. QUIET WEATHER FOR TONIGHT UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDANT ON WHERE THE BAND OF PRECIP EXISTS AND WILL VARY FROM THE 80S OUTSIDE OF IT TO PERHAPS NEAR 80 WITHIN IT. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES IT WILL DRAG A WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF COUNTIES BY DAYS END. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AS SEEN IN THE 700-500RH FIELDS MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY FORECASTS FROM THE RUC/NAM/GFS FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT ALERT INCOMING SHIFT TO ITS POTENTIAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 8F YIELDING HIGHS AROUND 90-92. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. NAM/GFS SHOW A 500 TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z TUESDAY. MOST OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE/JET DYNAMICS AND LIFT ARE TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK DYNAMICS AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RATHER WEAK DESPITE 700 TEMPERATURES OF 16-17C. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SILENT POPS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS I DID YESTERDAY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR NOW DONT EXPECT MUCH OF ANYTHING TO HAPPEN. 850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER 7F OR SO WITH HIGHS 95-100 EXPECTED. TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW GETS FLATTENED A BIT AND MORE ZONAL AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN THIRD. BEST INSTABILITY AND LOWER INHIBITION IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MENTIONED BEFORE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WILL NEED TO REORIENT THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION AND FOR NOW KEEP THEM IN THE SILENT CATEGORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPERATURES SO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH READINGS 95-100. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 939 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... ...EASTERLY FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE (REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY). GFS/RUC INDICATE IMPULSE ALOFT IN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW THAT MAY HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED MAV POP NUMBERS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS RATHER WARM (~MINUS 5 AT 500 MB) AND LIMITED PRECIPITABLE WATER... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. 10Z CAPE SOUNDING WAS SHOWING A CAP AT ABOUT 750 MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER. STILL WITH NEAR BREEZY EAST FLOW...EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PUSH ASHORE ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COAST...THOUGH WE WILL SEE IF ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS FORM IN THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES...THEN AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT PLANNING MUCH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST BUT WILL MAKE SOME WORDING ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. && .MARINE...LATEST DETAILED WAVE SUMMARY FOR 41009 SHOWS STEEP WIND WAVES WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 3 FEET AND PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS. COMBINED SEAS ARE RUNNING 4-5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 6 FEET OFFSHORE. MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS 15 KNOT AND GUSTY SURGE CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT THEN DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY BUT WITH WIND WAVE PERIODS STILL AROUND 6 SECONDS SO IT LOOKS CHOPPY ESPECIALLY WITH A FRESH SWELL (8 SECOND PERIOD) KEEPING COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. NOT PLANNING MUCH CHANGE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE LOOKING GOOD. && .AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COAST (MLB/VRB SITES) THAT PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. DAB MIGHT HAVE A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY BUT GENERALLY IT LOOKS VFR. SFB/MCO SHOULD SEE MORE CEILINGS THOUGH IN THE VFR RANGE EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH MFVR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL FOR THUNDER AT THESE INLAND SITES...GENERALLY EXPECT GREATEST THUNDER CHANCES OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....WIMMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1052 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .UPDATE... SUNSHINE IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOME AREAS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS COULD TRY AND RE-DEVELOP AND SLOW DOWN THIS PROCESS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AREA PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO REACH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. CANNOT RULE OUT A ISOLATED TORNADO WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE TURNPIKE...BUT THIS WILL BE PREDICATED ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS OVER THE AREA. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. WILL SEND OUT UPDATES FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. JAKUB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006/ DISCUSSION... SAT-SAT NIGHT: REMNANT MCS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING IN SOUTHEAST KS AT 1200 UTC... AIDED BY 500MB TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW PER PROFILERS. HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING WILL OCCUR WEST OF ICT-SLN BEFORE 1800 UTC...BUT CONSENSUS HAS DICTACTED KEEPING LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOING. CHANCES WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING CONVECTION. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS MORE RIGHT...WITH LATEST RUC LENDING CREDENCE TO GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SOLUTION. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING DRY SLOTTED THIS AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS OTHER THAN TO SLIGHTLY READJUST GOING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST KS AND LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST. SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...HOWEVER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND INFLUX OF DRIER MIDDLE LEVEL AIR WOULD INCREASE SEVERE CHANCES. WILL PONDER MORE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SUN-TUE: LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER TO MOVE MAIN UPPER WAVE THROUGH...AND PER CONCENSUS HAVE NIXED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON MON AND TUE. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOK GOOD OVER MOST OF AREA ON SUN WITH RECIRCULATED MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC 850MB FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS SUN NIGHT UNTIL MOISTURE CLEARLY EXITS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH LOTS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...DEW POINTS AND STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION. LATEST 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ARE A BIT WARMER AND TWEAKED VALUES UP SLIGHTLY. TUE NIGHT-SAT: BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL AND EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL NOW HINTING AT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS EITHER KS OR NEBRASKA TUE NIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND 850MB MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF FRONT...MCS LOOKS PROBABLE..BUT UNCLEAR WHERE TRACK WILL BE. CERTAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE BEST CHANCE...WITH OVERALL PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK PER BOTH EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL AND GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL. GIVEN CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING EACH RUN...WILL NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE IN THE NORTH. WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE MCS/S POSSIBLE HAVE NOT WENT ALONG WITH WARMER THICKNESSES OF GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL FOR MAXES. -HOWERTON && PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 82 65 90 68 / 60 60 20 5 HUTCHINSON 82 65 91 67 / 60 40 20 5 NEWTON 81 65 90 67 / 60 60 20 5 ELDORADO 81 66 89 67 / 70 60 30 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 83 66 90 69 / 60 70 30 10 RUSSELL 82 62 91 66 / 60 20 10 5 GREAT BEND 83 62 91 66 / 60 20 10 5 SALINA 80 65 91 67 / 60 40 10 5 MCPHERSON 81 65 90 67 / 60 40 20 5 COFFEYVILLE 81 67 88 67 / 80 80 40 20 CHANUTE 81 66 87 66 / 80 80 40 20 IOLA 81 66 87 66 / 80 80 40 20 PARSONS-KPPF 81 66 87 67 / 80 80 40 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1211 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 ...MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB LATE THIS MORNING WITH INTERIOR WEST AND THOSE LOCALES MOST AFFECTED BY SW DONSLOPE WINDS ALREADY REACHING INTO THE 80S. VERY MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA SAW MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING...CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WEST AS CONVECTIVE TEMP HAS BEEN REACHED THERE. THIS IN LINE WITH RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH DEPICTED INVERSION ERODING BY LATE MORNING. FURTHER E...CAP REMAINS A BIT STRONGER...HOWEVER THIS TOO IS WEAKENING AS SHOWN BY 1439Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KSAW. RUC MODEL SOUNDING SHOW CAP TO BE GONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES REACHING UP TO 2300 J/KG BY THEN...ALONG WITH LI/S OF -6 C. THUS IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS WEAK 850 TO 500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE UP THIS MORNING...BUT BOTH RUC AND NAM SHOW Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE WRN UP BY 18Z AND INCREASING BY 21Z. THUS ONGOING FORECASTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND BECOMING LIKELY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES OVER THE REGION...APPROACHING 12K FT PER RUC SOUNDING...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MB...DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARD FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS OUT WEST DUE TO THICKENING CLOUD COVER THERE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECASTS FOR TODAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CONCERNS FOCUS ON TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND RISK OF ANY SVR STORMS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES AN MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NRN PLAINS REGION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES OF NOTE WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SASKATECHWAN...ANOTHER OVER NORTHERN MT AND A THIRD OVER EASTERN CO. STILL ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL SERVE TO PROPEL THE ENTIRE PATTERN EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEIGHT FALLS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AS SASKATCHEWAN WAVE PHASES A BIT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY NOW OVER MT. AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH SLIDES EAST TODAY...IT WILL BE REINFORCED BY BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... EVENTUALLY CROSSING UPR MI LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT. TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH FORMED OVER LAKE SUEPRIOR HAS SINCE MOVED EAST WHILE MCS OVER SE MN FELL APART AS IT MOVED EAST INTO STRONGLY CAPPED RIDGE. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AGAIN OVER MANY LOCATIONS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN 18C FROM 850 MB. GFS MODEL SNDGS INDICATE MID-LVL CAP MAY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES RISE TO 1000-2000 J/KG WITH HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES. HIGHER CAPE VALUES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS MODELS HINT AT WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC MID LVL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE MOVING UP FM CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WEAK FEATURE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN INDICATIONS OF ERODING MID-LVL CAP PER MODEL SNDGS. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF CHC POPS THIS MORNING FOR THE WRN HALF COUNTIES AND THEN BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. EXPECT ERN HALF COUNTIES TO STAY MOSTLY DRY AND FAIRLY WELL-CAPPED PER GFS SNDGS BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY WILL KEEP IN A LOW CHC POP FOR THE AFTERNOON JUST IN CASE. BETTER FORCING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 3H JET MAX OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO SHIFT INTO ERN HALF COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS SHRA BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY MARGINAL (30 KT AT BEST OVER AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY)...FCST 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES STILL WARRANT A MENTION OF SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS IN THE HWO. DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WITH MULTICELLAR STORMS WOULD BE GREATEST THREATS. HAIL SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A THREAT WITH HIGH FRZG LVLS TO AROUND 15 KFT AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA FOR CENTRAL COUNTIES EARLY SUN AND LIKELY POPS FOR EAST AS COLD FRONT STILL PASSING THROUGH AT THAT TIME. SHRA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON FCST SNDGS IN WAKE OF FRONT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE BEST FORCING TO STAY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP IN GOING LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER NRN AND ERN COUNTIES BUT HAVE PULLED SHRA OUT OF SRN COUNTIES AWAY FROM BETTER SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS. WITH PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR MON (AROUND 10C MODEL AVERAGE) HAVE DROPPED INLAND HIGHS DOWN TO LOW 70S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID TO UPR 70S SOUTH. BY MON NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER CONDTIONS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RJT PERVIOUS FORECAST...VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1105 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .UPDATED... BASED ON THE 12Z RAOBS IT SEEMS TO ME THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OUR SOUTH THAT HAS TO ADVECT NORTH INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IDEA IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUC AND 12Z NAM RUNS. DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE GRR CWA THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS PART OF THE REASON THE MID LEVEL DEW POINTS FALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOTTOM LINE TO THIS IS I DO NOT THINK THERE IS ANY REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE IN OUR CWA TILL NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DUE THE DRY AIR...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF CONVERGENCE TO KICK ANY STORMS OFF. THEREFORE I HAVE PULLED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND GREATLY DIMINISHED IT OVER OUR CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE 1000/925 THICKNESS FIELD FROM THE 12Z NAM... HIGHS IN THE RANGE OF 90 TO 95 LOOK GOOD. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX BELOW 100F... SO WE WILL NOT NEED A HEAT ADVISORY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. IT IS AT THAT POINT THE SHOWERS BEGIN. INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE. NOTE THE 850 LI ARE ABOVE ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 18TH 00Z THROUGH 19TH 06Z. CAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG TOO. THIS COULD BE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL LOOK AT THAT MORE CLOSELY WITH THE 4 PM ZONE FORECAST. .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1115 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG WAVE OVER NEBRASKA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. SURFACE OBS AND RUC SHOWS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CETNRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY REACHING NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADD TO THIS THE FACT...THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CAP IN PLACE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTATION IS THAT EVEN THOUGH STABILITY IS LIMITED...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENNING. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KMML TO KFSD TO VERMILLION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST IOWA NAD SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SHEAR IS LIMITED AND INSTABILITY EVEN MORE LIMITED SO THERE IS NOT SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MOVEMENT IS ALSO SUCH THAT EXPECTATION IS THAT THERE WILL NEVER BE A PERSISTENT RAIN JUST ON AND OFF LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH MAY TOTAL AS HIGH AS A QUARTER INCH IN PORTIONS OF SW MN AND NW IA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MEAN CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF THE DAY FROM KYKN TO KBKX AND POINTS EAST MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE SKIES CLEAR IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...LOWERED TEMPS IN THE 70S IN FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AIND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW MN AND NW IA. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE WRN CWA SINCE FULL SUN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. UPDATED PFM AND GRIDS AVAILABLE. NEW ZONE FORECAST AVAILABLE SHORTLY. .PREV DISCUSSION... WHATS LEFT OF BENEFICIAL RAIN NOW FM I29 EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PULL EAST DURG THE MRNG WITH WEAKENING DYNAMICS. MODELS STILL TOO FAST WITH SFC TROF WITH LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE IN ENTIRE CWA. WITH HEATING DURG AFTN WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 CHC TSTMS FM SWRN MN TO NWRN IA DURG AFTN. THEN WNWLY FLW OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES SEWD OVR CWA DURG AFTN AND TNGT...WITH PLEASANT CX THRU SUN MRNG. HOWEVER...A NRN STREAM WAVE HOOKS UP WITH SOME DVLP LWR LVL CONVERGENCE IN MISSOURI VALLEY BY EVE AND WILL ADD CHC TSTMS THERE SUN NGT. THIS WILL BE FLWD BY ANOTHER SURGE OF PLEASANT AIR AFFECTING CWA FOR MON. OVERALL TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS EXPCD DURG FCST WITH GOOD MIXING...BUT TEMPERED SOME BY RECENT RAINS. RIDGE RIDER PATTERN SETS UP LATE MON NGT...WITH ETA TYPICALLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH LIFTING BOUNDARY AND GFS FURTHER NORTH. WILL GO MORE WITH GFS FOR NOW BUT MOVE PREV FCST SOUTH A LIT BIT AS GFS SOMETIMES OVERDOES WARMING ALOFT. GFS MAY ALSO HAVE A DRY BIAS WITH THIS DVLPG ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. MADE SOME MINOR ADJ TO PREV FCST BASED ON CURRENT MODELS AND TRENDS. && AVIATION... WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...EXPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN SUX AND FSD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP IN SW MN. AM ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP IN FSD AND SUX. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL LIFT PRIOR TO 13Z ACROSS THE AREA. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE MN...NONE IA...NONE NE...NONE && $$ SCHUMACHER/RYRHOLM sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 350 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... IN THE NEAR TERM (TONIGHT...TUES NIGHT)...STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE STATE. A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD NOT SURPRISE THIS EVENING GIVEN FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. SPC STILL HAS FAR NORTH CENTRAL OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK ALTHOUGH SRN IA MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER THREAT AREA PER LATEST NAM/RUC SOLUTIONS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD SVR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND AFTERNOON CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG DEVELOP. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE CWA BEFORE STALLING OUT. CURRENT HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH IF PRECIP COVERAGE/CLOUD COVER IS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LOOKING AHEAD (WED...SAT)...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NW FLOW PATTERN AT H5. TIMING OF THE VARIOUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND THE BEST TACK TO TAKE IS TO LEAVE THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FOR NOW. THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD FOR RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE WED INTO THURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SE THROUGH THE STATE. RAIN CHCS MAY PERSIST FRI/SAT ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT TO AWAIT STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR AIR MASS CHANGES FORESEEN. .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KINNEY ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS... CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING... HOW WARM DURING THE EARLY WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN LATER IN WEEK. VIGOROUS UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. RUC/MESOSCALE DATA SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBO WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SEVERE RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AFTER 00Z. THOUGH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THE RUC SUGGESTS RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG WITH SOME ENHANCED STRETCHING POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST EAST OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SO A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO IS QUITE POSSIBLE UNTIL DARK. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER INTO THE EARLY WEEK PERIODS. UPPER TROF DEPARTS AND PHASES WITH LARGER SCALE GREAT LAKES TROF TO OUR EAST...WITH SIGNIFICANT GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THE ADVERTISED WARMING TREND LOOKS GOOD IN THIS REGARD...SO ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS NEEDED TO GRIDS/FORECAST. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS PARADE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROFS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...EVENTUALLY DAMPENING/FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO KANSAS...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD OR INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INSERT THEM INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES NEEDED...WITH GRADUAL DOWN TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND. DARMOFAL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 64 91 67 93 / 40 10 5 5 HUTCHINSON 62 92 66 94 / 30 5 5 5 NEWTON 63 91 66 94 / 40 10 5 5 ELDORADO 64 90 66 93 / 60 10 5 5 WINFIELD-KWLD 64 90 68 93 / 50 10 5 5 RUSSELL 60 93 65 96 / 30 5 10 10 GREAT BEND 61 93 65 96 / 30 5 10 10 SALINA 63 93 67 95 / 50 10 10 10 MCPHERSON 62 92 66 94 / 40 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 66 89 67 92 / 70 20 5 5 CHANUTE 65 88 66 91 / 70 20 10 10 IOLA 65 88 66 91 / 70 20 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 65 89 67 92 / 70 20 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 415 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA TRENDS TONIGHT INTO SUN. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BTWN A RDG OVER THE SE CONUS AND A TFOF OVER THE PLAINS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER MANITOBA AND SRN NEB. AT THE SFC...A TROF EXTENDED FROM SE MANITOBA INTO ERN ND AND CNTRL SD. WEAK FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV INTO NW WI COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY(SB CAPE AOA 3 K J/KG) AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR (AROUND 40KT) AND WEAK OR NO CAP...HAS RESULTED IN SCT SVR STORMS ACRS THE W HLF OF UPR MI. SO FAR...STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF SSW FLOW OFF OF LK MI HAS DETERRED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST. A LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND SOME EMBEDDED TSTM ALSO CONTINUED OVER CNTRL AND NRN MN AIDED BY MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN MID LVL CONFLUENT ZONE. TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...SCT/NMRS TSTMS WITH CONTINUING SVR POTENTIAL WILL PROGRESS ACRS WEST AND CNTRL UPR MI EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WI SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE WITH GREATEST THREAT REMAINING OVER THE W HLF. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP OR SPREAD ACRS THE CWA SUPPORTED BY UPR LVL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 250 JET AND BAND OF FGEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MDLS HAVES TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LVL TROF THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAVE A LINGERING THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE CWA EARLY AND INTO THE E PORTION INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUN NIGHT INTO MON...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH WEAK MID LVL QVECTOR CONV AND DECENT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES(AOA 6.5C/KM) AS THE MID LVL TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. TUE-SAT...THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A BROAD MID LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN LAKES LATE TUE INTO WED. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THU. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW LOWER HGTS INTO THE UPPER LAKES EXTENDING FROM A MID LVL LOW E OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE KEEP A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE NRN CONUS. EITHER PATTERN WOULD LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHRTWVS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT MIGHT PRODUCE SOME PCPN FROM THU THROUGH SAT. HOWEVER...SHRA OR TSRA WERE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS TIME FOR FRI/SAT AS A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE SFC BASED CAPE LIKELY AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PREVAILING OVER THE AREA. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502 FOR UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL 00Z. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 340 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA HAS BEEN OPENING UP A BIT AND HEADING EAST. UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER WAS ALSO HEADING EAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN TREKKING NEWD FROM EC MN WITH GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING UPPER RIDGING OVER SRN MN. WINDS BELOW 550 MB HAVE BEEN DECREASING ON THE WOOD LAKE PROFILER. BEST SHEAR PARAMETERS EXIST IN EC MN INTO OUR NW WISC COUNTIES. RUC WAS SHOWING 25 KNOT 850 WIND MAX POINTING INTO EC MN AND WC WISC AT 00Z...WHILE ENTIRE AREA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF JET IN NWRN ONTARIO. PRECIPITABLE WATER NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY EVENING BUT STILL IS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. MORNING STARTED WITH MAIN BOUNDARY FROM JUST NW OF RPD TO NWRN IA. SAID BOUNDARY LIFTED DURING THE DAY AND NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE CBG/JMR AREA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MAIN FRONT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z. THUS THINK IT BEST TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FROM CENTRAL AND SC MN INTO WISC... ALONG WITH MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. 12Z LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARF DEPICTS SIMILAR SCENARIO. PRECIP SHOULD END LATE TONIGHT IN WC WISC. QUIET WX THEN MOVES IN. SECONDARY FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA... REACHING CENTRAL MN SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S. SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT SO WILL ONLY SHOW SOME CLOUDS AS FRONT APPROACHES AS WELL AS POST-FRONTAL FOR A LITTLE WHILE. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. STRONG SHORT WAVE SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY WHEN MORE STROMS ARE IN THE FORECAST. .LONGER TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THIS PERIOD PLACES THE MPX CWA AT THE BASE OF A PROMINENT BLOCK EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH HUDSON BAY. ACCORDINGLY...ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S DURING THE DAY AND COOLING OFF INTO THE 60S AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH ON THE EAST END OF THE BLOCK SINKS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IN OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE CARRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON VARIOUS DAYS...AS DO OUR NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...ESTIMATING OF SHORT WAVE STRENGTH AND TIMING IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE SO THERE IS REALLY LITTLE REASON TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PORTION OF THE FORECAST OVER THIS PERIOD. A LOGICAL TIME TO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE LATE IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR. & .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ TDK/WET mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... 88D MOSAIC SHOWING RETURNS FROM ABOUT NRN MN TO NW KS ALONG A BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SE. HOURLY RAINFALL RAINS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A FEW SPOTS HAD REPORTED AROUND A HALF INCH AT 18Z. BOUNDARY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE REFLECTION IN SOUTHERN CANADA. MEANWHILE... UPPER SHEAR AXIS WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEAR ON TAP FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE SFC BOUNDARY DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST RUC TPI INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER THREAT NOT ALL THAT GREAT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TS POPPING UP HERE AND THERE. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS MODELS SHOW SHORT WAVE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES... RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER PLAINS HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY APPARENTLY STALLS OUT OVER THE CWA BY AFTN PER NAM/GFS. UVV DO INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BOTH MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TILL LATE IN THE DAY. WILL LEAVE SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE LLVL MOISTURE POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA WITH STOUT ISENTROP/WAA LIFT PROGGED OVER NRN KS. WITH DECENT LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS WELL...SMALL POPS REASONABLE. MONDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE ENERGY SWEEPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND KICKS THE NRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. QUITE STRONG WAA LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA AHEAD OF LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DAKOTAS. DYNAMIC LIFT IS FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PCPN CHANCES FOR THE NRN CWA. AS THE SURFACE LOW TREKS ACROSS NEB ON TUESDAY...IT DRAGS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT...PROMPTING SMALL PCPN CHANCES THRU THE DAY. IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE MREF FROM THE GFS/CMC/FNMOC ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU DAY 7 SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...THEN ALTERING LATE NEXT WEAK WITH A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE FORMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NW FLOW SETTLING IN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OTHERWISE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BOUNDARY SETTING UP IN THE VCTY OF THE CWA...PROMPTING SMALL THUNDER CHANCES THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST PERIOD. MAKE SENSE THAT WITH ZONAL FLOW PROGGED OVERHEAD...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WOULD BE EXPECTED. WITH FAST FLOW WESTERLIES AND MEAN POSITION OF THE POLAR JET PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ANTICIPATE THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX ACTIVITY TO TAKE PLACE. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DEE ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 510 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 ...NEAR-RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY... .NEAR TERM UPDATE (THROUGH EARLY EVENING)... ISSUING UPDATE TO PUT CHANCE SHOWER/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY AND SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS (40+ DBZ RETURNS OVER NORTHEASTERN CT HEADING SE WITH LIGHTNING JUST N OF CT/MA BORDER). WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS SHOULD ACT AS INHIBITOR TO PREVENT SHOWERS/ANY HTUNDERSTORMS FROM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY CURRENTLY ARE...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST (RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER SE CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING) THAT A FEW BRIEF DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. .NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... DISSIPATING REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING OFFSHORE ATTM. A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE LINGERING ACROSS CT...EXTENDING NNW INTO WESTERN MASS. DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS AT 4 PM...MAY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS ERN ZONES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEARING LINE IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SE INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA INCLUDING NYC LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLEAR OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS DURING THE EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF NYC WHERE TEMPS SHOULD DROP ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST NIGHT OF THE YEAR WITH MIN TEMPS AOA 70 FOR NYC/LGA/EWR. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +19 TO +20C. SSW WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS HOT AS THEY COULD WITH A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF NYC AND INLAND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEENS AND BROOKLYN WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE ONE IS TO THE WATER. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT...WITH LOWER 90S FOR INLAND CT. THESE TEMPS REFLECT A MET/FWC BLEND WHICH APPEARED SUPERIOR TO THE COOLER MAV. FOR DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED THE SLIGHTLY DRIER FWC GUIDANCE...AS WE FELT THAT THE OTHER GUIDANCE RAISED DEWPOINTS TOO QUICKLY ON SUN. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN THE MID 60S...THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S ON SUN AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING MAX HEATING. SINCE THESE HEAT INDICES ARE BELOW HEAT ADV CRITERIA...WILL INSTEAD CONTINUE WITH THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOT WX. OTHER THAN THE HOT TEMPS...NOT MUCH WX TO SPEAK OF ON SUNDAY. QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND NO EVIDENT TRIGGER DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS OF NYC. EXPECT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS START TO FALL AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. NAM/P-NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALL SHOWING A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROF SETTING UP ACROSS ERN PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING. GIVEN CAPE VALUES LIKELY AROUND 2000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...ALONG WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...STRONG AND EVEN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. APPEARS THAT THE BEST THREAT WILL BE FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SOME EXTENT FOR LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT NOT APPROACHING THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME LATE TUE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN SUN/MON AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +15C. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH POPS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS SLOW THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN EVEN MORE...BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH ENDING THE PRECIP CHANCES TUE EVENING. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND WED NIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. POPS RE-ENTER THE FCST THU AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. FRONT MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT...BUT CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR FRI/SAT AS THE REGION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND VULNERABLE TO POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS OF FL250 WEST...AND FL100-150 EAST. GENERAL CLEARING TREND TOWARD SCT250 WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD PICK UP A BIT THROUGH 23Z OR SO AS WE MIX DOWN FROM 20 KT FLOW AT 2000 FT. OTHERWISE...WE RETURN TO LIGHT (5 KT OR LESS) SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BE ALLOWED ONLY TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT DURING WEDNESDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS QUITE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA...WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE BUT ALSO LIGHTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO...15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE WARM AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL OVERLAY A STILL QUITE CHILLY OCEAN. THE STRONG INVERSION WILL NOT ALLOW MIXING SO BASICALLY LOOKING FOR THE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE FLOW TO REFLECT THE PRESENCE OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ONLY. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON THE OCEAN AND SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN ZONE. THE REST OF THE OCEAN WATERS SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD AS WELL...REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY NOT UNTIL MONDAY. THE WEAKER GRADIENT THAT MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THAT TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. OTHERWISE DRY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY DUMP 1-2" OF RAINFALL PER HOUR. && .CLIMATE... APPEARS THAT OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT OF REACHING RECORD HIGHS FOR SUN. RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY... NEWARK 97/1993 BRIDGEPORT 91/1994 NYC 95/1929 LGA 95/1994 JFK 87/2004 ISLIP 87/2004 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR NYZ067>081 FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ350 FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...MALOIT ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 331 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AS THE RIDGE AXIS PULLS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE REGION. CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.80 INCHES. SURFACE CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2500 J/KG. MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT APPROACH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. BUT DECENT UVV MOTION DEVELOPS AT 700MB BY 18Z AND SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL JET. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO COUPLED WITH THIS. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS. HAVE LEFT OUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION FOR NOW. ALSO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST ON SUNDAY. FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. AM EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR TEMPS STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT DROP LOWER THAN UPPER 60S. BUMPED SUNDAY HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO IN THE WEST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS COMING IN A BIT COOLER. RLG && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SE THRU THE FA ON TUE. AXIS OF DEEP MSTR IS WELL TO OUR S BUT WITH FNT INVOF AND WITH INSTBY OF -2 TO -3 LI/S HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS. IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE THRU GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT OFFERING DRYING. UPPER LEVEL FLO BACKS WESTERLY WITH SFC RIDGE SHIFTING E OF FA WED. S/W ENERGY TO PASS THRU SRN GRTLKS WED AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF CHC TSTMS ACRS THE N AND SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE SOUTH. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP INTO THE REGION AND STALL OUT ORIENTED E-W PARALLEL TO THE WESTERLIES LATE THU/FRI. THIS WL PROVIDE A CONTD THREAT FOR TSTMS. THEREFORE...WL CONT TO CARRY CHC POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA INTO FRI. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH S TO THE OHIO RIVER SAT AND THUS EXPECT BEST CHC ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF FA. ATTM HAVE OPTD FOR SLIGHT CHC. TEMP WISE...WARM TEMPS TO CONT TIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM MEX GUID. && .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... MID LVL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACRS CNTRL/EASTERN OH THIS AFTN... KEEPING SKIES MSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME PASSING THIN CI. RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU REMAINDER OF AFTN AND INTO THIS EVNG. THIS WILL ALLOW PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO LIFT UP INTO OH VLY ON BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. 12Z NAM/15Z RUC INDCG WEAK SFC TROF TO LIFT INTO SW FCST AREA BY ERLY EVNG WITH WEAK AXIS OF CONVIN BNDRY LYR. INITIALLY MID LVL CAP REMAINS STRONG...BUT AS LO LVL MOISTURE POOLS INTO OH VLY LATER THIS AFTN...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG CAP WEAKENS ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CU BY ERLY EVNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLD -SHRA OR TSRA ACRS SW FCST AREA. CHANCES SLIM ENUF FOR NO MENTION OF PCPN AT KCVG/KLUK THIS EVNG. CI THEN WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD FCST AREA TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FIRES TO WEST OF REGION. SVRL MID LVL S/WVS TO APPCH REGION FROM WEST AHEAD OF MID LVL TROF OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. CAPES CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG BY ERLY AFTN WITH SCT -TSRA DVLPG ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA. HAVE PLACED CB MENTION IN AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY...AS BETTER LO LVL CONV AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO REGION AFT 18Z SUN. FURTHER EAST...CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF FCST PERIOD AND EXPECT ONLY MID/HI CLOUDS TO AFFECT KILN/KCMH/KLCK. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES LATER SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT AS MAIN MID LVL TROF APPCHS. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 135 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... MID LVL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACRS CNTRL/EASTERN OH THIS AFTN... KEEPING SKIES MSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME PASSING THIN CI. RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU REMAINDER OF AFTN AND INTO THIS EVNG. THIS WILL ALLOW PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE TO LIFT UP INTO OH VLY ON BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. 12Z NAM/15Z RUC INDCG WEAK SFC TROF TO LIFT INTO SW FCST AREA BY ERLY EVNG WITH WEAK AXIS OF CONVIN BNDRY LYR. INITIALLY MID LVL CAP REMAINS STRONG...BUT AS LO LVL MOISTURE POOLS INTO OH VLY LATER THIS AFTN...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG CAP WEAKENS ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CU BY ERLY EVNG AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLD -SHRA OR TSRA ACRS SW FCST AREA. CHANCES SLIM ENUF FOR NO MENTION OF PCPN AT KCVG/KLUK THIS EVNG. CI THEN WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD FCST AREA TONIGHT AS CONVECTION FIRES TO WEST OF REGION. SVRL MID LVL S/WVS TO APPCH REGION FROM WEST AHEAD OF MID LVL TROF OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. CAPES CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG BY ERLY AFTN WITH SCT -TSRA DVLPG ACRS WESTERN FCST AREA. HAVE PLACED CB MENTION IN AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY...AS BETTER LO LVL CONV AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO REGION AFT 18Z SUN. FURTHER EAST...CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF FCST PERIOD AND EXPECT ONLY MID/HI CLOUDS TO AFFECT KILN/KCMH/KLCK. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES LATER SUN AFTN INTO SUN NIGHT AS MAIN MID LVL TROF APPCHS. RYAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... MID LVL RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION THIS MRNG. TEMPS WERE WARMING QUICKLY UNDER MSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH CURRENT READINGS ALREADY INTO M/U70S. GULF MOISTURE FEEDING NORTH ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HI PRES WILL LIFT INTO LWR OH VLY LATER THIS AFTN...AND MAY BE ABLE TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA LATE AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SCT CU DVLPMNT WITH RETURN FLO THIS AFTN...SO BECMG PTLY CLDY ACRS WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD. 12Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION BTWN 850MB AND 750MB. THIS SLATED TO HOLD THRU REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH FCST AREA IN STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD WITH MID LVL RIDGE. SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 90 DEG THIS AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR L90S ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE 500MB HGTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND 850 TEMPS ARE WARMER. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS ALL WELL IN HAND. NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MRNG. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. RYAN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RETURN FLOW SETS UP TODAY IN THE LLVLS...ALLOWING MOISTURE BACK INTO OHVLY...ESP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. H5 HIGH IS CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...HELPING KEEP DOWN CLOUD COVER AND LETTING TEMPS RISE TOWARDS 90 DEG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STABILITY OF AMS DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 3000J/KG...BUT THE CAP AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP UNDER THE UPPER HIGH. THIS CAP WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO H5 S/W THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NW OHVLY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE CAP WILL INCREASE...NOT ALLOWING MUCH DAYTIME HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOS AND GIVE A DEFINITIVE KICK TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HEATING WILL STILL OCCUR AND SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 1500J/KG TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING STILL WELL TO THE NW. A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW EARLY ON MONDAY AS THE INSTABILITY OUTPACES THE LIFT EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SFC FRONT WHICH WILL SEE CAPE VALUES OF 2500J/KG POOL AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE PAST THE MID 80S AFTER TODAY DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE ON THE FORECAST MON...AND GENERALLY KEPT HIGHS UNTOUCHED FOR TODAY AND SUN. PM LOWS WERE DROPPED SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY WENT UNCHANGED. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SUN AND MON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SVR LEVELS. FRANKS LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FRANKS && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh