SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT SAT MAY 17 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THREE MORE RECORD HI TEMPS WERE TIED OR
BROKEN TODAY OVER THE DISTRICT (SANDBERG AT 85 DEGREES...WOODLAND
HILLS AT 101 DEGREES AND OJAI AT 101 DEGREES.) THE HOTTEST OFFICIAL
TEMP OVER THE REGION TODAY WAS 102 DEGREES AT BOTH VAN NUYS AND
FILLMORE.
QUIET WX CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN ALL AREAS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. TEMPS
IN MANY AREAS WERE STILL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND SOME
FOOTHILL AREAS MAY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT. LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING FROM LAX SHOWS 1200 FT TEMP AROUND 85 DEGREES...WITH A
SURFACE BASED INVERSION. LOW CLOUDS...NO DOUBT WITH DENSE
FOG...EXTENDED FROM THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WESTWARD...BUT THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO. IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG MAY HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT EVEN TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED THE ZONES TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG FOR THE VTU/L.A. COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
STRONG UPPER HI CENTERED OVER NRN CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSW TO THE
CENTRAL CA COAST FOR SAT...AND OFF THE SBA COUNTY COAST WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING SUN THRU MON. A BROAD NE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THRU SUN...THEN BECOME WEAKER AND TURN NORTHERLY FOR
MON. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HI WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRONG NE FLOW DURING THE PERIOD...SO
GENERALLY WEAK NIGHT AND MORNING OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST WRF IS FORECASTING STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VTU COUNTY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN WITH THE
VALLEYS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND A FEW MORE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO KEEP THE BEACHES
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A QUICKER RETURN TO ONSHORE
FLOW ON MON ALONG WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS TURNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE WARMEST VALLEYS
SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE COOLING TREND WILL
BE MUCH SLOWER TO RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...
HOWEVER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXSPSLOX)
FOR DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
SPECIFICS REMAIN A QUESTION MARK. OVERALL COOLING TREND LOOKS GOOD,
THOUGH TO WHAT DEGREE STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. ECMWF IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH THE NEXT TROF AND COOLER THAN THE GFS. HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. EITHER WAY,
HEAT WAVE SHOULD BE OVER BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING AT LEAST TO
NEAR NORMALS BY MID WEEK. A POTENTIALLY WINDY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...17/1015Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST WITH
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS BETWEEN 12-15Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU THROUGH TONIGHT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD/WOFFORD
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 PM PDT FRI MAY 16 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THREE MORE RECORD HI TEMPS WERE TIED OR
BROKEN TODAY OVER THE DISTRICT (SANDBERG AT 85 DEGREES...WOODLAND
HILLS AT 101 DEGREES AND OJAI AT 101 DEGREES.) THE HOTTEST OFFICIAL
TEMP OVER THE REGION TODAY WAS 102 DEGREES AT BOTH VAN NUYS AND
FILLMORE.
QUIET WX CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN ALL AREAS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. TEMPS
IN MANY AREAS WERE STILL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND SOME
FOOTHILL AREAS MAY HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT. LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING FROM LAX SHOWS 1200 FT TEMP AROUND 85 DEGREES...WITH A
SURFACE BASED INVERSION. LOW CLOUDS...NO DOUBT WITH DENSE
FOG...EXTENDED FROM THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WESTWARD...BUT THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO. IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG MAY HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT EVEN TO THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED THE ZONES TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE
FOG FOR THE VTU/L.A. COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
STRONG UPPER HI CENTERED OVER NRN CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSW TO THE
CENTRAL CA COAST FOR SAT...AND OFF THE SBA COUNTY COAST WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING SUN THRU MON. A BROAD NE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THRU SUN...THEN BECOME WEAKER AND TURN NORTHERLY FOR
MON. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HI WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRONG NE FLOW DURING THE PERIOD...SO
GENERALLY WEAK NIGHT AND MORNING OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST WRF IS FORECASTING STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE MOUNTAINS OF VTU COUNTY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THRU SUN WITH THE
VALLEYS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S...AND A FEW MORE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO KEEP THE BEACHES
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A QUICKER RETURN TO ONSHORE
FLOW ON MON ALONG WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS TURNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE WARMEST VALLEYS
SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE COOLING TREND WILL
BE MUCH SLOWER TO RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...
HOWEVER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXSPSLOX)
FOR DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND
OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
SPECIFICS REMAIN A QUESTION MARK. OVERALL COOLING TREND LOOKS GOOD,
THOUGH TO WHAT DEGREE STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. ECMWF IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH THE NEXT TROF AND COOLER THAN THE GFS. HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. EITHER WAY,
HEAT WAVE SHOULD BE OVER BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING AT LEAST TO
NEAR NORMALS BY MID WEEK. A POTENTIALLY WINDY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...17/0500Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SAT AT
ALL AIRFIELDS...EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT KSMX LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED.
KLAX AND KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD/WOFFORD
AVIATION...SIRARD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1020 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008
.UPDATE...
10 PM TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
SUSTAIN SURFACE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 12 MPH RANGE THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
/850MB TEMP AT APX WAS -4C/. THIS COLD AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS SE
MI DURING THE NIGHT. THUS...MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. A COUPLE NEGATIVE FOR FROST OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
MECHANICAL MIXING DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND THE PASSAGE OF SOME
MID CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS
LAKE HURON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE FROST ADVISORY OVER THE
EXTREME SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. IN LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND
SFC OBS...SEE NO REASON TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY ANY FARTHER TO THE
EAST. THUS NO MAJOR UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 708 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008
AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT OVER SE MI THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THUS...EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE LINGERING CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO WANE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING. MODEL RH FIELDS STILL SUGGEST SOME
SCATTERED HIGH BASED CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DRY LOW LEVELS
HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUIET STEEP UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE AM COLD FRONT. 12Z KDTX SOUNDING CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE
OF A STRONG H500 COLD POOL...WITH 500MB TEMP OF -27 C. MOST RECENT
ACARS DATA SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO 5000 FEET...MAKING
ANY DECENT STRENGTH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED
HAIL. WILL SEE SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING.
FORECAST CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DECIDING WHICH COUNTIES TO INCLUDE IN A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN A TRICKY CALL. SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW GRADIENT WINDS
TO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BECOME QUIET
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MT PLEASANT TO MONROE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS LAKE HURON
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EFFECTS FROM THIS BEING A PUSH OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE THUMB AND TRI-CITIES. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TOUGH
CALL WHERE BOTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST
FORMATION...AND HAVE AT LEAST A PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST MENTION FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS OUTSIDE OF URBAN METRO
DETROIT DROP INTO THE MID 30S. HAVE HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THE COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OWOSSO TO
MONROE) MOST LIKELY TO SEE CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS AND WILL
ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR AREAS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TODAY/S COOL AIRMASS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION
ON MONDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SAID...THE AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER A COOL...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE. A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL ALSO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL ACT TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST...ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOL AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 60-65 RANGE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF DETROIT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL.
LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL REMAIN CHILLY...WITH PLENTY OF AREAS
DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES.
AS THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE AREA...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS
A DEEP THROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND FORCES THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND EXPAND NORTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS SHARP NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...BUT WITH THE EXTRA
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITHIN THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE 60S
WITH A 70 DEGREE READING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER...AND ASIDE FROM THE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. WILL LIGHTER WINDS...HOWEVER...LOWS WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE...FALLING INTO THE MID 40S BY AND LARGE.
THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AS THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MODERATES UNDER THE LATE MAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FURTHER...CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON
SATURDAY AND WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
REMAINING FLOW OFF OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS
DOWN. ADD IN LIGHT WINDS...AND THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER PLEASANT ONE. HOPE I DIDN/T JINX US.
MARINE...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE HURON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ060-MIZ068-MIZ075-MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL 8 AM
MONDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363...UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 2 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......HLO
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
708 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT OVER SE MI THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THUS...EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE LINGERING CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO WANE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING. MODEL RH FIELDS STILL SUGGEST SOME
SCATTERED HIGH BASED CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DRY LOW LEVELS
HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUIET STEEP UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE AM COLD FRONT. 12Z KDTX SOUNDING CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE
OF A STRONG H500 COLD POOL...WITH 500MB TEMP OF -27 C. MOST RECENT
ACARS DATA SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO 5000 FEET...MAKING
ANY DECENT STRENGTH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED
HAIL. WILL SEE SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING.
FORECAST CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DECIDING WHICH COUNTIES TO INCLUDE IN A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN A TRICKY CALL. SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW GRADIENT WINDS
TO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BECOME QUIET
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MT PLEASANT TO MONROE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS LAKE HURON
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EFFECTS FROM THIS BEING A PUSH OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE THUMB AND TRI-CITIES. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TOUGH
CALL WHERE BOTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST
FORMATION...AND HAVE AT LEAST A PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST MENTION FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS OUTSIDE OF URBAN METRO
DETROIT DROP INTO THE MID 30S. HAVE HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THE COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OWOSSO TO
MONROE) MOST LIKELY TO SEE CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS AND WILL
ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR AREAS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TODAY/S COOL AIRMASS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION
ON MONDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SAID...THE AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER A COOL...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE. A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL ALSO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL ACT TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST...ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOL AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 60-65 RANGE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF DETROIT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL.
LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL REMAIN CHILLY...WITH PLENTY OF AREAS
DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES.
AS THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE AREA...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS
A DEEP THROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND FORCES THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND EXPAND NORTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS SHARP NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...BUT WITH THE EXTRA
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITHIN THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE 60S
WITH A 70 DEGREE READING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER...AND ASIDE FROM THE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. WILL LIGHTER WINDS...HOWEVER...LOWS WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE...FALLING INTO THE MID 40S BY AND LARGE.
THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AS THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MODERATES UNDER THE LATE MAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FURTHER...CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON
SATURDAY AND WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
REMAINING FLOW OFF OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS
DOWN. ADD IN LIGHT WINDS...AND THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER PLEASANT ONE. HOPE I DIDN/T JINX US.
MARINE...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE HURON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ060-MIZ068-MIZ075-MIZ082-MIZ083...FROM MIDNIGHT
MONDAY TO 8 AM MONDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363...UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......HLO
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008
CORRECTED MARINE SECTION
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME QUIET STEEP UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE AM COLD FRONT. 12Z KDTX SOUNDING CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE
OF A STRONG H500 COLD POOL...WITH 500MB TEMP OF -27 C. MOST RECENT
ACARS DATA SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO 5000 FEET...MAKING
ANY DECENT STRENGTH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED
HAIL. WILL SEE SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING.
FORECAST CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DECIDING WHICH COUNTIES TO INCLUDE IN A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN A TRICKY CALL. SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW GRADIENT WINDS
TO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY BECOME QUIET
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MT PLEASANT TO MONROE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS LAKE HURON
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EFFECTS FROM THIS BEING A PUSH OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE THUMB AND TRI-CITIES. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TOUGH
CALL WHERE BOTH WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FROST
FORMATION...AND HAVE AT LEAST A PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST MENTION FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS OUTSIDE OF URBAN METRO
DETROIT DROP INTO THE MID 30S. HAVE HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THE COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OWOSSO TO
MONROE) MOST LIKELY TO SEE CLEARING AND LIGHTER WINDS AND WILL
ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH FOR AREAS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TODAY/S COOL AIRMASS WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION
ON MONDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SAID...THE AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER A COOL...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AND ONLY EXPECT
HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE. A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL ALSO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL ACT TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST...ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOL AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 60-65 RANGE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF DETROIT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR AS WELL.
LOWS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL REMAIN CHILLY...WITH PLENTY OF AREAS
DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES.
AS THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE AREA...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS
A DEEP THROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND FORCES THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND EXPAND NORTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS SHARP NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...BUT WITH THE EXTRA
SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITHIN THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE 60S
WITH A 70 DEGREE READING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER...AND ASIDE FROM THE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON...THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. WILL LIGHTER WINDS...HOWEVER...LOWS WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE...FALLING INTO THE MID 40S BY AND LARGE.
THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AS THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MODERATES UNDER THE LATE MAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FURTHER...CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON
SATURDAY AND WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
REMAINING FLOW OFF OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS
DOWN. ADD IN LIGHT WINDS...AND THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
RATHER PLEASANT ONE. HOPE I DIDN/T JINX US.
&&
.MARINE...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER LAKE HURON TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE HURON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 138 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008
AVIATION...
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES BETWEEN 4500-6000 FT HAVE FILLED IN THE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA. WE HAVE
ALSO SEEN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT HAVE LEFT -SHRA MENTION OUT
OF TAFS DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE AND BECAUSE RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN
VERY LIGHT...MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES. BEST CHANCE TO SEE THESE
SHOWERS WOULD BE AT DTW AND DET BEFORE 21Z. LOWER CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AT DTW AND
DET...WITH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS STICKING AROUND AT FNT AND MBS.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2008
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKES REGION TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH GOOD
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS 850MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND
-3C. A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ALONG THE 850MB FRONT WITH SHOWERS ALSO STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA APPROACHES AND WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE THUMB THIS MORNING WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
OVERHEAD BY THAT TIME WITH SOME INFILTRATION OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
AND FALLING DEWPOINTS...SO WILL CARRY JUST CHANCE WORDING WITH
LOWER POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER TODAY WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION. SKIES WILL ALSO BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND ONLY EXPECT VALUES IN THE 50S. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
LONG TERM...
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORTEX/COLD POOL WILL BE IN NO
HURRY TO EXIT FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES/RIDGING ON MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS UPPER WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER HEIGHT
FALLS...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FORECASTED
TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA RETROGRADES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
EVEN SO...IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO KEEP MAX
TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES WITH ANY DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
JUST NOTE THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS MAX YESTERDAY...LOWER 60S...WITH
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY (850 MB TEMP +4 C >> ZERO).
NOT MANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ON MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS...INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES WITH
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW WILL BE
TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
CONFINED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN JUST CHANCE
POPS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS (DOWNWARD)...MAINLY WEDNESDAY.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
MARINE...
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PRESQUE ISLE
SUPPORT GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...WHICH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM. ELSEWHERE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS STILL LOOK GOOD AS GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ST
CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...THEN FINALLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE WAVE GENERATION TONIGHT OVER LAKE HURON...INCLUDING THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. PLEASE SEE NEARSHORE OR OPEN WATER FORECASTS FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY START TO BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS AND THEN
WAVES TO FINALLY SUBSIDE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ060-MIZ068-MIZ075-MIZ082-MIZ083...FROM MIDNIGHT
MONDAY TO 8 AM MONDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363...UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
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